Weekend Update

218 Comments

7:28PM

About half way through the weekend as I write this update, and not a whole lot of change at this time. Of course, media is already jumping all over a potential rain/snow threat for the Northeast for the day before Thanksgiving into early Thanksgiving morning, and while I acknowledge there is something to watch there, there is the matter of some weather to affect southeastern New England before that time. Though I am well aware that this is a huge travel week, trying to get detailed regarding the midweek threat would be a waste of time, as there are far too many uncertainties to allow one a clear enough look at things to make a confident forecast. Regarding that, I’ll play it low-key with moderate confidence but leaving the door open to significant tweaking as that time nears. In the mean time, milder air is coming in as Saturday night rolls on, and lots of clouds and even patchy showers of rain are possible. It has become mild enough for rain versus snow, as milder air has been coming in above during the day and finally at the surface overnight. By Sunday, the milder air will become more established and expect a day of sun mixed with clouds and a gusty breeze. A significant, large sized storm system is going to move northeastward through the Great Lakes on Monday and a large lobe of energy on the eastern side of it will lift through southeastern New England with rain late Sunday night and Monday morning. Most of this rain should be out of the way, though clouds will remain dominant, Monday afternoon, with very mild air. A cold front will sweep eastward across the region on Tuesday but with limited moisture to work with, so there will just be some patchy clouds around. Beyond that, the front will be the pathway for developing low pressure off the US Southeast Coast. As has been the thinking for a while, I do expect this to remain a largely open, fast-moving wave of low pressure though it may rapidly start to intensify while passing southeast to east of this area. The question of exact track and impact will not be answered for some time yet, so for now will just forecast some rain/snow for a period of time Wednesday night, ending early Thanksgiving Day. It does look like a chilly interlude to end Thanksgiving week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures rising slowly from upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain likely by dawn. Lows in the 40s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 50.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible rain/mix coast, snow/mix inland at night. Low 30. High 45.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

218 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

      1. Bernie says he’ll prepare a video tomorrow morning on the “storm” and he ain’t talking about Monday. 😀 😀 😀

  3. Thanks TK !

    I personally am putting the last 8 days into the winter column, as time already served. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Within these 8 days, its been 9 to 10 degrees below normal with the exception of the 17th.

  4. The dewpoint in Buffalo is 37F.

    Think that 4-7 ft of snow has compacted down to about 2 ft ? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the most amount of snow that has fallen in Boston in the month of November?

    A. 9.2 ”
    B. 12.6″
    C. 15.5″
    D. 17.8″

    The correct answer is D.

  7. WELL HERE IS THE ANSWER I HAVE GOTTEN FROM ECMWF SO FAR. PLEASE NOTE THAT AFTER THE WORD “DEAR” THE AUTO EMAIL COULD NOT EVN FILL IN MY NAME. OBVIOUSLY A THOUGHTFUL EMAIL. 🙂 🙂

    “Dear
    Thank you for contacting ECMWF. We have received the email and will be assigning your issue to the appropriate team for follow up.

    Regards,
    ECMWF calldesk

  9. Nws tweet

    @NWSBoston: Reminder: Don’t rely on model snow accums, esp for early/late season storms! Sfc or snow growth temps not taken into account.

    3. That little storm we had a week or 2 ago verified nicely with a general 1-2″. Granted it was on the grass and cartops, but still most model outputs verified

      1. The model output had up to 4 or 5 inches on a couple runs with that event, and was also somewhat different, synoptically-speaking.

  12. Hazardous weather outlook for Wed storm POTENTAL removed by Taunton NWS office. However NWS out of Upton putting there county warning area in the hazardous weather outlook
    Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code

    Hazardous Weather Outlook

    ——————————————————————————–

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
    453 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

    CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-241000-
    NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
    NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
    SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
    EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
    EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
    NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
    RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
    NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
    NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
    453 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

    THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A WARNING LEVEL SNOW FALL FROM LATE
    WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME A COASTAL LOW IS
    FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WEDNESDAY
    EVENING…BRINGING MAINLY RAIN AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY ON
    WEDNESDAY…THEN RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT.

    AT THIS TIME THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
    TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW THAT COULD CAUSE THE SNOW. AS
    A RESULT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION…HOW FAR
    INLAND…AND FOR HOW LONG ANY RAIN IS MIXED IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS
    STILL TO BE DETERMINED. IT THIS TIME THOUGH…THERE IS THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE LATTER
    PORTION OF ANY TRAVEL BEING DONE LEADING INTO THANKSGIVING

  13. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS…INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
    PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED…THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
    NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
    CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN – SO
    THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
    FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY – THAT A FAIRLY DECENT…BUT
    NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

  14. If this low does form faster as a closed surface feature than it appeared before it comes closer too or west of 40/70 then it ends up as rain for eastern MA.
    – No cold high to the north.
    – No blocking…no slowing & stacking.
    – No cold air aloft to pull day.
    – Mild ocean air would flood boundary layer because there would be a decent component of wind off the water.

  15. I don’t tend to root for or against any weather, as it’s just weather and is going to happen regardless of who cares or not. But I’m going to “root” for not a major impact on this upcoming threat for midweek. I know several people that have to travel to very important holidays due to personal events during this year, and hoping they can get to their destinations without trouble, including a first time holiday guest coming here.

    The good news is, if solutions such as the current GFS and ECMWF verify, track-wise, both of them will have over-forecast precipitation and snowfall, which is typical anyway.

    But as stated in discussion above, and called nicely by Tom yesterday, not all the players are over land yet and this leaves the uncertainty at a very high level.

      1. The ones I know are all traveling Thursday morning. 🙂

        But by then whatever happens will have already happened. This thing will be long gone by then, as it will be moving like an express train.

      2. I think a lot of people travel Thursday who live closer. There is always gridlock thurs mid day for instance heading down toward the cape.

        1. Some people don’t realize that we actually have a “rush hour” of local travelers on Thursday morning/midday. It’s unavoidable because of the number of people that cannot go the night before due to work, kids, not wanting to impose their guests to provide them with a place to sleep while they are probably preparing a feast, etc. 🙂 Many factors.

          Obviously we can’t control the weather, but nicer travel conditions are generally going to be welcomed, as the roads are what they are, right Charlie? 😉

  16. Good morning!! No change to my forecast, looking like more of a rainstorm in my area, maybe a little snow,, maybe. The temps r marginal at best for snow just inland away from the coast 20 or so miles :)good day and go Patriots!!

      1. With a no-blocking, progressive system, even if it’s intensifying, there is very little margin for snow unless you have colder air around than we are going to have. If the storm is too far to sea, you get light precipitation and even if it snows it hardly accumulates, and if the storm is a little closer the wind will end up being stronger off the water and you bring in too much warmth. There is almost no middle ground. The models’ snow maps don’t see that issue for what it is.

  17. 00z tonight is my first giant stepping stone to higher confidence. If we get to tonight’s 00z runs and the majority of them are in reasonable agreement about the track and intensity of developing low pressure, open wave or closed surface low, then I’ll start to get more specific a little sooner than usual because of the importance of travel plans.

    I may write The Week Ahead post early but may tweak it at the end of the night, if necessary. If I do that, I will make a notation of it on the original post, so people know a change has been made, then that will be carried forward and updated on future blogs entries, which will take place at least 2 times per day during the next week as I will have more time to tend to this blog than usual, since I don’t work again until December 1. 🙂

  18. TK I was thinking about what you said yesterday on the profession. Unfortunately, it’s here to say. The 24 hr news cycle started in the 80’s, the internet in the 90’s and now social media. They’ve all “joined forces” to create the near tabloid and hyper sensationism that drives almost all news now. There are few places to get real news except maybe NPR. And I’m a conservative saying that!

    We’re not far away from wondering what’s real.

    GFS is cooking a lot of snow for Worcester. I’m using it as toilet paper. Tuesday Am is when I’ll bite at best.

  19. If I’m reading the NWS data correctly, tomorrow’s record high for Nov. 24th is 72F.

    Probably unlikely to tie or beat, but …….. it could be close.

    1. My tropical plants (bananas and palms) will enjoy the warmth coming today and Monday in my I unheated sunroom. They’re cold hardy varieties but the longer I can stall the hard cold, the better. They all survived last year no problem.

      2. We had a plant that was given to us when Macs mom passed away. The only time we have trouble finding a place in the house for it is when Christmas decorations come out. I put it on our glassed but not heated porch but it was quite droopy so I got scared. How cold does your sunroom get?

        1. It gets well below freezing at night but will heat up to 45-50 even on the coldest days because it’s south facing. The varieties I have can handle some real cold temps as long as it gets above freezing during the day at some point. I have one palm I started from seed ten years ago that has a nice trunk about 2′ tall now. Takes forever to grow but very cool looking in the summer on my patio.

          1. I would love that. And I bet looks nice in your sunroom in winter. My porch does not go below freezing but faces ENE. I’ll find name of plant and see what you think.

  20. Many times, certainly, New England has experienced a day in the 60s and 70s ….. then 36-48 hrs later, its in the 20s and snowing ….

    With that said ….

    TK has 50F for Tuesday and perusing around the 7 day forecasts on our favorite TV stations, 50F or a little better seems likely Tuesday.

    Given the various proposed scenarios for Wednesday, my one constant question for each scenario this far out would be …..

    How is the cold air going to get in here (during or ahead) of this system ??

    And at this point, I keep coming up with the same answer ….

    It isn’t. …….. I think the core of the cold wont be north of us to be entrained in the system, I think it will be west of us, to be pulled in once the system departs.

      1. Cooler, yes. But not cool enough.

        For example, on Tuesday or maybe Wednesday morning would be better to consider, I’d bet up at Watertown, NY or Burlington, VT or Caribou, ME ….. the temps will be around 30F. Unfortunately, I’d think we’d be looking for temps in the teens, where it would be clear that there is a decent supply of cold air to work with.

          2. It is a strong system, unfortunately, its track is so far north and west of New England that the cold air really has no chance of being thrust into our region.

        2. Yup, whatever snow there is, and I do say whatever, it will have to work with the marginally cold air above. They way to get that is to have the storm wind up and bring it on down. IF it stays more of a wave that would be more difficult. Then the only way would be HEAVY precipitation and that “could” possibly happen. But wait we have boundary layer issues and warm ocean out there. Currently 49.8. Geez that will be tough to overcome UNTIL the wind veers more NNE and then N.

  21. Good morning. For snow lovers I see nothing but doom and gloom.
    IF we had an arctic high to our North, we’d have a fighting chance. But that is not the case. If it tracked a bit more to the East, there is just enough cold aloft to get the job done, but then there is the boundary layer.

    Latest Euro tracks right over or area, not even over the canal. It has a real coastal hugger/inside runner. GfS is more East near the BM and NAM even more so East. The CMC is still mostly off shore. The FIM has come on board and takes it very near the BM. Still significant model divergence due to reasons discussed above.

    Here is the Euro

    http://i.imgur.com/AGXyjnW.png

    Here is the GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112306&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=096

    Here is the FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112300/130/3hap_sfc_f102.png

    The CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=102

    1. The FIM lays down a ton of Precip in the 1-2 inch range.

      At the height of the storm both 850 MB and 925 MB temperatures are BELOWfreezing in all of our area except far SE MA, the Cape and Islands, however surface temperatures are above freezing in the 30s over the area AND as Tk indicated a fair component off of the water (See below). Even IF the FIM were to verify as depicted, coastal areas would be fighting rain or mix at best for a good chunk of storm, likely going over to a period of snow later in the storm. How much for how long? Who knows.

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112300/130/wind_10m_f102.png

      My gut says it doesn’t track as far West as Euro NOR as far East as CMC.
      Somewhere near the benchmark. I don’t know how much of that is wishcasting or much is looking at the data as presented. Also, it now “appears”
      that it be more of a closed low than a wave. Either way it WILL be moving
      fast, but with copious moisture.

      1. I thought someone would get a charge out of that.
        I wonder IF he even considers the ocean temperature?
        To be fair, we haven’t seen the video yet, so perhaps he’ll
        say snow only for inland areas? 😀

  23. I’m falling into the trap of identifying something too far out …..

    The end of the Thanksgiving weekend, maybe Sat. Night or Sunday …. Lets see what the 12z runs today show on that.

    By then, the cold air will be much more established.

    Both the GFS and EURO have a little something. The GFS takes it north of us, the EURO takes it just south of New England.

  24. The 12Z NAM is in and is in CAMP off shore and Camp WAVE.

    How does one forecast this event? Simple answer. Don’t. Can’t be done.

    Here’s the forecast. Chance of rain with a “possibility” of a mix/change to snow.

    MODEL MAYHEM!!!!!

  25. Not sure why the media is so amped about the possibility of a white Thanksgiving Eve. Doesn’t make sense, both from a meteorological standpoint (there isn’t any cold air between now and maybe next weekend; I’m even doubtful about that push of more cold air – I’m thinking it stays north and barely impacts us in SNE) and a traffic standpoint. Who wants snow on Thanksgiving Eve. I love snow, but not on Thanksgiving Eve or the Sunday after Thanksgiving. It’s the number one traffic day in the country and a snowstorm would wreak havoc and potentially cause numerous fatalities.

    3. Looks like a Christmas card pic but that is a lot of snow on those roofs. I hope roof construction in that area takes these possibilities into account

      1. I read this a few days ago:
        “Because the Buffalo area is so snowy, building codes require homes and businesses to be able to handle up to 50 pounds per square foot on their roofs.”

        This works out to the equivalent of 9.6″ of water. So. at a 10:1 ratio, that would be 8 feet or snow.

    2. The 3-6 line is knocking at Logan’s door, eh ???

      Ohhhhhhhh, kayyyyyyyy (my wife tells me that when I disagree with her on something, I look at her and give her this long drawn out ok, so, I’m giving one to Bernie !)

  29. Regarding the 12z NAM. Not saying this is the case but it’s a strong possibility: A problem with this model beyond 48 or 60 hours is not developing frontal waves enough and keeping them too far east. Though I have been in the camp of keeping this thing a little less developed and a little further east, without discounting the other scenarios, I think the reality will end up being a little more than what the NAM is currently projecting. Long way to go…

  30. The Buffalo snow-on-roof situation and flooding threat is being overdone, actually, but I know why. It’s not too often you see that much snow in that short a time, even if it was in a relatively small area.

    The snow was very low water content and a very fair percentage of it is already gone, sublimated and/or melted-evaporated. The roofs, as stated above, are built to hold a whole lot of snow, and I bet that is snow at ‘average’ water content. You’re only seeing collapse and buckling of old or inferior roofs.

    And I don’t think we’ll see a whole lot of flooding issues as rain falls to start the week. They are not going to get tremendous rains that hang around for very long, and they have a snowpack that can absorb a whole lot, which will then partially freeze and then start to sublimate and then melt more slowly in a milder overall pattern which is coming for the first half of December.

    BTW with a slight delay in the more persistent mild regime, I’m starting to think that more of December may be mild and we’ll see a delay in the return of colder air from mid month toward the latter third of the month. Remains to be seen.

  31. Hope this snow is a miss…headed to North Conway Thursday and any snow down here will delay or cancel the trip. Funny every time we plan to go to North Conway a storm of some form comes that day. During the summer we had that epic rain and floods on the day we were to go and we almost canceled.

    1. I’m going to go out on a limb and say you will get out of here Thursday with only possibly having to scrape your driveway at most, but you will drive to an area that got some snow but has cleared it out nicely in time for your arrival.

      Hope it works out!

  32. Excellent video by Bernie. I really do admire his analysis and presentation. I happen not to agree with the degree of snow he is forecasting, but I can see why he’s arriving at that forecast.

    We all like to like to look at the AccuWeather 45-day forecast for one reason or another, sometimes comedy. Well I just noticed that they have 2 more snow threats for November as we know (late Wednesday and some snow showers next Sunday the 30th). The ENTIRE month of December is completely devoid of snow for Boston and the nearby suburbs on that forecast. Nothing. Zip. Not even flurries. So if that forecast verifies (and it won’t) then Boston’s snow total for December will be 0.0 inches. 😛

  33. Getting ready for the media’s overreaction to the 12z GFS.

    Remember, only pay attention to the model that has the most snow! 😉

  37. I hear that the parallel GFS has 6-12 inches of snow Richmond VA to Boston MA.

    I didn’t bother looking myself because usually when I read fiction, I fall asleep…

    DID YOU HEAR THAT OS???
    MODEL MAYHEM!!!! 😉

  38. I have swapped garage positions of the Lawnmower and snowblower just in case…hoping for a white turkey day in Natick

  39. Very strong signals of a long-lasting POSITIVE NAO.

    Snow chances are going to be very limited for an extended period of time.

  40. But if I read it right you said the 0 chances of snow for December would not verify but just said limited chances above. Maybe I’m reading it wrong.

    1. The zero came from AccuWeather’s 45-day forecast. That never verifies all 45 days and never will.

      Limited snow chances into December will definitely not translate to zero snow. There will be some, perhaps just not that much.

  41. 56F at Logan at noon. Shot at 60F ??? , today ???

    I wonder if overacheiving on temps today means a better chance at eclipsing 70F tomorrow ?

  42. Sure will stink if I’m doing snow removal on thanksgiving. Remember where I work we can’t even have a coating on walkways due to safety with patients and employees.

  43. Taking advantage of this nice weather and hanging Xmas lights on front farmers porch. But they won’t get turned on till Thursday night.

    1. I’m about to go out there and lay all the cords and then the lights. Will finish up the outside stuff on Tuesday. Aim is to turn it all on (inside and out) December 1. But may sneak it in early if it’s ready. 🙂

        1. With people doing a lot of outside decorating next weekend you would be crazy not to start it today with this Ill day very warm day down here .

    1. I love that he has such enthusiasm for weather. Dick Albert love him or hate him had great enthusiasm and went a long way in getting me interested when young because of it. My guess is Eric passes his enthusiasm and his knowledge through great discussion on to some kids

    1. Pretty interesting to have two significant storms affecting us within 4 days time. Boston could end up with 3″ of rain between the two. Maybe a foot or more of snow in the far interior if the Euro verifies. Not looking good for coastal snow though, just not the right setup.

    1. Even for dead of Winter. 😆

      I like the FIM, but would take the GFS. 😀
      Those 2 are middle of the roaders between the inside Euro
      and the outside CMC.

  53. 12Z FIM has an all out monster

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112312/130/3hap_sfc_f090.png

    850 mb OK

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112312/130/temp_850_f090.png

    925 MB A bit shaky, especially South and East of Boston

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2014112312&plot_type=temp_925&fcst=090&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=130&adtfn=0

    10 M Winds a have just a little too much Easterly component for my liking, suhhesting
    any snow would be more inland.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112312/130/wind_10m_f090.png

  56. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 14m14 minutes ago
    You’ll likely see a lot of accumulation maps for snow the next 24 hours. It’s too early to put out numbers and only will confuse

    1. What are you reading that I’m missing because I just got done reading his blog on boston . Com and he said way to early and confidence still at low level .

  57. 18z NAM has finally started coming around. It’s actually got a pretty good snow setup. Not a very strong storm but far enough east and cold enough for pretty much all snow. The storm wasn’t complete through 84 hours, but it likely would’ve ended up as 6-12″ for eastern MA and RI, except for the Cape. Probably way too cold though, it’ll likely trend further west and warmer.

  58. I can’t bring myself to put up lights when the weather is this warm. Hopefully it will snow Wednesday so I can put up the outside decorations!

    1. I believe it gets cold for next weekend though . My wife was saying it was so nice to not have to go in and warm hands.

  59. The kissing ball goes up Wednesday night as it’s a tradition for my wife’s deceased mom who loved kissing balls. I have been doing this for years. It usually stays fresh till mid February at the earliest before it starts going brown.

    1. I think the Western/SW Suburbs get in on the good stuff.
      Western/SW neighborhoods of Boston Get in on some.
      Logan gets mostly Skunked. I could see sometime Wed night
      It snowing at my house and Hadi’s yet Raining at Logan. Gonna
      be close. Depends on final track and how much cold air can be either generated from above or be drawn into the System from the N&W. We shall see.

      I do NOT like the idea of the EURO coming consistently inside.

      1. Even with the inside track it still seems to put down 3-6.” Euro did this last winter, consistent runs until about 2-3 days before the event then changed its tune. I suspect it will do the same here and this thing will track further east.

  61. I guess Barry is with team TK:

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ 8s9 seconds ago
    Traveling Wednesday? Spotty Flurries Northwest & Great Lakes With Rain Mid-Atlantic To Southern New England. #wbz

  63. 18z GFS a little warmer and further west again. Gonna end up as an inside runner if the models keep going the same direction, lol. I agree with what TK said earlier today though about the 0z runs tonight being the first real important ones, since I think we’ve got most of our players onshore now and able to be sampled. It’s really looking doubtful that anyone east of Worcester sees appreciable snow for now though. Good news for travelers, rain won’t help but it’s a lot easier to deal with than snow. Still time for all sorts of changes of course.

  64. 18Z GFS still on track. A Nice thumping of snow for Worceter to Berkshire. Snow drops
    off towards the Coast and stops Just South of Boston.

    Have a look.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=081

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112318&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=081

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112318&time=48&var=ASNOW&hour=102

    1. Yes – Worcester Hills are on track still for a pretty good snow if this is real. Might have to get my snowboard out afterall. We’ll see in 24 more hrs.

      Thing is zipping right along though ain’t it.

    2. They didn’t Vicki. I’m just guessing the usual amounts like Worcester and those spots might have a better shot. Earlier 5 was thinking all rain for eastern sections.

    1. Some, but not major. We don’t have enough cold air aloft and the really cold Arctic air is going to be in the western Great Lakes at the time the storm comes by, so not a whole lot of cold air to be pulled in at the surface either, just marginal cold on both accounts.

      1. Thanks TK. I as much as anyone dont want to see the thanksgiving travel impacted with a major storm but its looking more and more likely, whether its rain or snow.

  67. Good evening!!!!!

    What a win!! Defense has really come together, 9-2 onto the packers.

    I believe most of the rain falls between 7am and noon. Also temps will actually warm tonight and be close to 60 degrees by dawn. No changes to my thoughts for Wed, however still 72hrs away, when the heaviest precip is falling, it will be in the form of rain imo. I believe in the Boston to Providence corridor southward and eastward will be spared any real meaningful accumulations. I interested to see the gfs run around 10:30 to see if a milder trend continues. We shall see 🙂 goodnight everyone

    1. Pats are on a roll man! They are locked in and seem to be playing out of their minds after many doubted them (including me). I hope the ride continues

    2. I also have a feeling the gfs will start to come west a bit. Look for the CMC to also come west. How far west is the big question.

      2. When I get back from Missiouri Sunday nov 30th I’ll be looking for a snowstorm, I’ll be on board 🙂

      3. Yes, indeed. Another TEAM win.
        Brady wasn’t too bad today, was he?
        Amendola had a great return as did Edelman, only his was called back due to stupid penalty.

        Edelman had a awesome receiving day as did Lafell. How about
        Wright? nice job there and then the gronk was the gronk, although he dropped one early on.

    1. Is that the good old RPM model? I think WBZ and NECN both use that for their “futurecast” projections. If it is, needless to say we’ve seen some big hits and big misses out of that model. But that sure looks like a cold solution.

      1. It does, doesn’t it.

        Well, the 0Z runs should be extremely interesting.
        Aside from boundary layer issues along the coast, I keep
        seeing that the atmosphere is COLD enough to support SNOW.

        We shall see. Perhaps that all changes with the 0Z runs.

          1. Good for him. One of the things I like about him is that he does respond and he also will politely diss a troll. He continues to impress me

    1. I don’t Believe a word he says. I think he is not good.
      Beyond that, his presentation is out to lunch.

  70. The model-generated 8-14 day outlook from today turns on the FURNACE for most of the country in the December 1-7 period, save for the northwestern Plains and southern Alaska. When Alaska gets cold, the lower 48 warms up. Hello Pacific jet stream!

  71. NWS expect storm to track Near the BM with possible coastal front.
    Rain/snow line hard to predict now, but they are leaning towards snow inland with rain along the coast. How far inland? Who knows. We shall see.

    2. When the say inland I’m just suspecting they mean like I said above Worcester the hills, Maine and newhampshire, I think. My gut tells me here all along eastern sections.

      2. John, Inland could mean Anything. It could mean 128 westward.
        It could mean 495 westward. It all depends. I am NOT convinced
        SNOW doesn’t make it to Boston. It just may, especially the
        Neighborhoods, IF NOT downtown and at the airport.

      1. Retrac,

        I “think” it may be farther East. In any case, 495 looks “almost” certain to get snow. Lucky you and on top of that you have
        some elevation. 😀

    1. If that verified it would pretty much stop most local travel for dinners and cancel/postpone just about all the football games. Oops!

  73. The NWS did not try to give any specifics, because it is too early to determine that. And they are correct. So any guess is just that, a guess, at this point. 🙂

  74. Nice win by the Pats today. Getting ready to watch my Cowboys beat the Giants. Will be interested if I see a white Thanksgiving for the fourth time in my life.

        1. I always think of 95 as Braintree to where it splits into 128N to 95N. Not right or wrong but what I see. 95/128 ring just west of Cambridge. And then 495 just west of here

    1. That will be the coldest game Brady has played in a while. Really curious to see how he plays. People always say Foxboro is a bad weather place during football season. Truth is, most games are decent weather around here. Green Bay has far better chances of cold and bad weather.

  81. http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrBT9KEi3JU.PYAM.7BGOd_;_ylu=X3oDMTE0aHMxYzdpBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1RBVVMwNzBfMQ–/RV=2/RE=1416821765/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.ndbc.noaa.gov%2fstation_page.php%3fstation%3d44007/RK=0/RS=0GA857paQdbrQf43UWYoTxCcQeI-

    Water temp : 50.4F. No, this isnt Boston Harbor, its off of Portland, ME.

    Unless the wind goes ageostrophic, I cant imagine what a northeast wind is going to do to the boundary layer at least out to 495, maybe even out to Worcester.

    November, November, November ………..

    1. Try to tell media that. They’ve already been talking about all the bad weather we’ve had so far this Winter. 😛

        1. I’d be pointing out the ocean’s influence if the water temps were below normal.

          I cant tell you how many times up in Lowell, right by rte 495, that I thought it was going to snow in storms that hit in late November into early-mid December that went right down the drain because of the still relatively mild ocean.

    1. The coldest air shifted to mainly Great Lakes / Northeast. The remainder of the US is warming as the pattern shifts toward the milder one. Much of the snowcover was rather thin anyway so it’s gone. Remember the ground was still warm from the recent warmer months.

  84. im hoping the long range is wrong 😀 i do not want a warm snow less december, but then again i did predict that with my winter forecast lol

    1. That is still outside the NAM’s peak performance time, so don’t give it too much weight yet.

  86. I don’t know how to tell ground temp but when I pushed in stakes for the one outdoor decoration we did manage to get up the earth was very soft.

  87. Going to post The Week Ahead by 10:30PM. I’m still not going to say much about the midweek system because I’m just not sure how it plays out yet. I’ll leave the over-speculation to the other met’s for now. 🙂

    Good slug of rain coming through tomorrow morning. Who hits 70 tomorrow? Someone will.

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