Holiday Weekend Update

292 Comments

6:53AM

Happy Thanksgiving to you all! I realize that many people are not having a pleasant Thanksgiving due to power outages, especially in parts of NH and nearby north central MA. Hoping power is restored soon and most of the weekend can be salvaged.

Watch for icy spots this Thanksgiving morning where there has been some freeze-up of snow/slush, especially north and west of Boston!

Other than those after-effects, the pre-Thanksgiving storm is now behind us, and we look ahead. A trough will be hanging around the area today, keeping clouds dominant, though some breaks of sun will occur too. This trough will focus some moisture for a round of snow tonight and Friday morning. Though it does not look like a major snowfall, up to a few inches of fluffy snow may accumulate as it will be quite cold. This will have an impact on Black Friday shopping plans in the overnight and morning hours. Conditions will improve later Friday as the trough moves away to the south. This will set up a weekend that starts very cold Saturday after the sky clears and wind drops off Friday night. But a warm front will send more clouds into the region later Saturday and it may snow again in parts of the region Saturday evening, again a minor event. By Sunday, the sun will make a return but this time it will warm up.

Early next week, a mild Monday with a few rain showers as a cold front crosses the region. Tuesday will be cooler but dry with high pressure centered north of the region. Another warm front / cold front combo will bring unsettled but milder weather Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly cloudy but some intervals of sun. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow eventually tapering off after accumulating a general 1 to 3 inches, but lesser amounts South Coast of MA and southern RI, and locally greater than 3 inches near some coastal areas from the South Shore to North Shore of MA. Partial clearing during the afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Wind light NE to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 10 interior valleys to near 20 coastal locations and urban centers. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light snow by late afternoon with some minor accumulation possible by early at night. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix early, then rain showers. Low 30. High 50.

292 thoughts on “Holiday Weekend Update”

  1. Thanks TK ! Happy Thanksgiving everyone !!!!!!!

    I hadnt really thought about the folks without power, may that get resolved as quickly as possible !

  5. Happy thanksgiving. Pete said Tuesday watch the Thursday system put more snow down in Boston than Wednesdays storm guess he will be right, looks like a few inches on tap for tonight. Harvey said last night these systems have a history of putting down more snow.

  6. Thanks TK! Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone here! I’m a little surprised to see the risk for a couple inches of snow tonight; kudos to Pete B for getting on that first.

  8. Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving everyone! How many have we celebrated now together? I forget.

    Storm total here finished up at 6″ verifying a lot of maps except for NWS. Looks awesome outside.

  10. 1-3 for boston and 2-4 down this way tonight starting around midnight and going to possibly noon on Friday .

  11. Good morning all. Many thanks TK for the update.

    Happy Thnksgiving All!

    Yesterday was a most interesting day.

    That warm layer at 700MB Killed chances for snow in Boston amd eventually
    the whole column warmed as well. System tracked just too close to the coast.
    Even so, saw more Winter weather than I expected when things stated yesterday morning. Rain to snow to mix to snow to mix to SLEET to rain to sleet to SNOW.

    Different story inland. Winter wonderland.

    Sleet even out to Worcester. What only about 4 inches at the Worcester Airport.

    Still all-in-all that was quite a system for November. It did break some snowfall records for the date, so that was COOL.

    Now onto the next “little” event that will likely be a bigger snow producer than yesterday for many. Nature’s way of evening the score, if you will.

    Off to looks at the latest runs. Will post something soon.

    ENJOY THE DAY ALL!!!!

    Not to HADI. Nice job safely navigating the roads to Maine during all of that snow.

    1. From NWS

      an ocean storm will develop tonight and friday tracking about 400
      miles southeast of nantucket. however a trough of low pressure
      will extend northwest from the ocean low back into eastern
      massachusetts. its along this trough that a narrow band of
      moderate to perhaps heavy snow will develop across eastern
      massachusetts late tonight into midday friday. the area of
      greatest concern is from cape ann southward to boston, coastal
      plymouth county and cape cod.

  14. Just a though, but remember that little Clipper we were discussing yesterday/day before that at the time was out in Iowa. I posted a map showing it to be under some
    Northern stream energy. I believe it is that very system the NWS is discussing
    above for that ocean storm and resultant dare I say, NORLUN trough into our
    area. Pretty amazing.

  17. More from NWS:

    *** ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA FROM CAPE ANN TO BOSTON TO CAPE COD ***

    FRIDAY…

    INTERESTING SETUP FOR POSSIBLE NORLUN TYPE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE FROM CAPE ANN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CITY OF BOSTON… PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI… INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM OFFSHORE LOW NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND WILL COMBINE WITH MESOSCALE FRONTAL SCALE
    FORCING FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH TO YIELD A NARROW BAND OF
    MODEST/APPRECIABLE QPF.

  20. Good morning and happy Thanksgiving!! First thanksgiving with the in-laws, full Italian dinner THEN traditional thanksgiving dinner, im gonna burst. Wish me luck! Hope everyone has a great day 😀

      1. Hi John. How are you? Molly? I hope I remembered right name.

        Seven fishes is Christmas Eve. We were thinking of doing that this year but kids voted it down.

        2. She is just ok Vicki , I don’t think much longer but vet said yesterday not yet. I though it was yesterday as I got a call after lunch and rushed home. She has got weaker a lot in the legs. Vet gave her some meds to relax her but stressed she believes if anything she has maybe mild discomfort so meds will relax her. We have decided to get another dog probably soon after because we believe it will help us with the healing as well as help the little dog . Trying to find a local place where I can find another doodle cause don’t want to use this one again, any ideas welcome. Yes I know about Xmas eve but he said full meal so was not sure. 17 family members coming around 1:00. Enjoy the day. Happy thanksgiving Vicki.

      2. The 7 fishes is usually for christmas eve. Thanksgiving usually starts with an antipasti platter (bread, olives, cheeses, cured meats) then italian wedding soup, manicotti or lasagna, THEN the thanksgiving dinner, then salad, fruit, desserts

  23. Who would have thunk it?? A white thanksgiving for many. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but a month or 2 ago when warmth was predicted through thankgiving i did predict snow before thankgiving with snow on the ground. I would love to say that was based on something but i had a hunch ad got lucky. Wouldnt it be ironic to have a white thanksgiving and not christmas

    1. That may very well happen. Nuri changed the pattern for about an entire month. Some climate forcing due to Siberian snow as well.

      Pacific jet stream is about to overcome all of it and completely change the pattern again.

    2. AceMaster the last two times there was snow on Thanksgiving in my town 05 and 02 we did not have a white Christmas.
      Hopefully this time will be different.

  24. My Personal Weekend Outlook

    Today: Football game Woburn vs. Winchester – it’s a home game – Go Woburn! Thanksgiving Dinner. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on DVR. High school football highlights shows. Miracle On 34th Street.
    Friday: Shovel 1-3 inches of fluff snow. Take down the Thanksgiving decorations. Have dinner at Rainforest Cafe for my daughter’s birthday. Start Christmas decorating.
    Saturday: November sledding in the morning with my son. Hyper speed Christmas decorating. Festival at Woburn Common including lighting of the trees, etc. Daughter’s bday party.
    Sunday: 12 hour Christmas decorating marathon. I’ll need football and Christmas music to get me through that. It’ll get done. Outside stuff, 17 rooms, and a 59 year old Lionel Train later, it will all be ready to spring to life on Monday December 1. 🙂

    Again, Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

      1. I have made room for the Bruins on Friday evening (decorating 2 rooms with TV’s in them), and of course the Pats! I work very well while listening to and watching sports.

        Yes there are possible surprises, and I have a suspicious feeling about what may happen on the South Shore…

  25. Food for thought an pause for a Holy Crap What If

    THis is the Burlington, VT 4KM WRF model run at 6Z today.

    BTV 4km WRF, 12 hour total precip ending 1PM tomorrow.

    http://i.imgur.com/LBnkYFx.png

    That is .25 to .5 for Boston with the MOTHER LOAD “just” off shore.

    IF IF IF and did I say IF that area of precip moved a bit to the West????

    We’ll I leave that to you. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Slight shift westward, and it’s not 1-3, it’s 4-8.
      Fluff factor will be elevated in either case.

          1. 😆

            What do you make of 12Z NAM backing off some?
            Could it be it just develops too far off shore?

            We’ll see. 😀

            1. NORLUN set-ups are the most tricky of all to forecast, no question about it. Since I just posted, I’m not going to adjust any numbers. If it looks higher or lower, I’ll adjust this evening.

              1. Just the fact that “something”
                could happen is exciting. We’ll watch it unfold.

                Btw, is that ocean storm the remnants of that clipper we
                saw in Iowa the other day.
                Looks like it to me?

                tx

  27. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

    Family feast/football today, XMAS tree decorating tomorrow, Revs game at Gillette Saturday and sleep in on Sunday (ok that the last part may not happen w/the kids/dog).

    Enjoy the looooong weekend!

  28. Good thing upcoming pats games are not on FOX with verizon fios not carrying the station for however on it takes to resolve conflict.

  29. How far west will this snowfall come? If my memory is correct, not very far. Perhaps within 10-15 miles of the coast. My area of Norfolk county probably wont be in play 🙁

    1. It all depends upon where and how it sets up.
      You “could” get in on it OR you could miss. Even the Coast “could” Miss.
      We’ll be watching closely, especially the radars late tonight. 😀

      1. I do think that down here gets more than boston oldsalty would you agree. However I do believe plowing will be needed in Boston throughout the neighborhoods .

        1. Not necessarily John. You could get more. Boston could get more. Who knows.

          TK hinted he has a suspicion about S. Shore, so You may be right.

          We’ll know tomorrow.

          btw, could be a MISS for all.

            1. No, I’m just responding to the 12Z NAM
              back off. That is why I said “could” be a miss. We just don’t know yet.

              Given that, look at my post below RE: Latest HRRR

              Seems it’s on with that model.

              We’ll have to monitor.

              “could” be a big surprise. Who knows.

  32. Latest HRRR on board with some sort of event tonight/tomorrow AM.

    TIMELINE…Looking at radar reflectivity, should begin around 8PM tonight.
    The very beginning with very light snow/snow showers.

    Not in range for height of event just yet.

    Here is radar at 10 PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112713/full/1ref_sfc_f15.png

    surface at 10PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112713/full/3hap_sfc_f15.png

    15 hour snowfall ending at 10PM tonight

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112713/full/acsnw_sfc_f15.png

    hmmmm this show an inch before it even gets going. Hmmm

    Gives one pause. We shall see.

  33. Always a surprise with these Norlun troughs. Remember the time in the last year or two when places in CT got 12-15 in a short time.

    1. Yup. Very very Tricky indeed.

      Any forecast has HUGE BUST potential.

      You say 1-3 or 2-4 inches, knowing full well that it could be zero OR
      it could be 8 inches. I would NOT want to make a forecast.
      IF I did make one, I’d lean towards the safe 1-3 or 2-4. If it’s a miss, no big deal.
      If it looks to be more, adjust later.

  35. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/

    While these strands of precip are currently weakening and moving away from the coastline, the fact that they are out there make me think that its an indication that the low levels of the atmosphere havent really dried out with the passage of the big storm.

    So perhaps, there is hope that they will easile reinvigorate tonight with a bit of added convergence and will begin moving back towards and onto the coastline.

    We havent seen the sun all morning and have had periodic flurries/sprinkles.

    1. Interesting. Perhaps you’ll be correct. Can’t wait till tonight, feast not withstanding. We eat at 3PM. YUM YUM YUM

      1. I think thats when we eat too … Problem is, I’m hungry NOW 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I’m also looking forward to tonight and see what happens. I’d enjoy seeing 2-4 inches, if it can materialize. I’m a bit envious of everyone elses white landscape. Its quite brownish-green down here. 🙂

  40. TK, with the Pacific zonal flow about to invade most of our nation pushing the cold northward, what would be your best guess in terms of how long this pattern will last? I fear it could last up to 6 weeks, as similar patterns generally set up shop for 3-6 week periods.

    1. Probably will last till April when we’ll go back to the deep freeze! 😀
      Seriously, I hope it doesn’t last long.

  42. One thing that I always find amazing is that the highway system is so organized, granted I would never move here if you paid me, but 7 and 8 lane highways going 1 direction are nice, and flow very nicely, for a smaller city they got infrastructure that could support a big city for sure, all exits have 2 lanes too which is convenient. Not downing Boston but just an observation, the most surprising thing is my wife’s home back when she was little, it carys about 3-4,000 vehicles daily, it’s called PP highway in the middle of no where and its 2 lanes. Good day everyone!!

  50. HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRR-NCEP (Operational) Area: NE Date: 27 Nov 2014 – 16Z
    1 km agl reflectivity

    Beginning to show snow picking up around 2AM, espeically Shouth Shore.
    You reading John?

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2014112716&plot_type=1ref_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1

    1. This “may” Begin to show TK’s suspicions about the South Shore with this one.
      We’ll have to see how it develops.

      Beginning to look more and more like a lock for something. 😀

  51. Great job OS! Keep the links coming. It would be nice to wake up to some snow tomorrow it will get people into the holiday spirit!

    1. Perhaps overboard? No? Waiting for wife to get ready so we can leave for my daughter’s house. I’m staying out of the way, doing my thing.

      Would be nice to wake up to snow and it appears likely at this point. It’s just a mater of how much? a dusting to an inch or so? 2-4 inches? Or perhaps more?

      We just don’t know now. That’s why the forecasts are the safe
      1-3 or 2-4. 😀

  53. The reason why I said south shore oldsalty is because Harvey was explaining it last night as he thought they would get the most, but boston was in it as well just maybe not as much.

    1. I understand. And that is TK’s thinking, I think.

      I’m not sure because I am now seeing conflicting information.
      Looks like the whole East coast is at risk. 😀

  55. NWS hazardous Weather statement for Tonight/Tomorrow AM

    EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR A
    MODERATE RISK /30-60 PERCENT/ OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER
    THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS SNOW BAND WILL
    SETUP ALONG WITH ITS DURATION AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE A FORECAST SHIFT IN AS LITTLE AS 25 MILES WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE SNOW REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THERE IS A LOW RISK /UP TO 30 PERCENT/ THAT IF THE SNOW BAND IS PERSISTENT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

    1. This Southern Jet which contributes to a “Split Flow” does NOT always have to spell doom and gloom for New England. In the past, this split flow has
      contributed to some mighty big snow storms in New England. What is need though is the Polar Jet to supply the cold and the Southern Stream to supply the moisture and a little thing called phasing.

      A couple of things to get in the way:

      1. No Phasing, often leading to storms slipping South of us.
      2. Southern stream moves to far North totally cutting off Cold.

      I presume TK believes it’s going to be #2 for awhile. 😀

  58. OS… yes the disturbance is the remains of that Midwestern system.

    Joshua… About 3 weeks for the Pacific jet intrusion with a northward displacement. After that is may continue but become southern displacement as we start to flip the NAO back to neutral/negative territory.

    Charlie… Pick a location for your snow-on-the-ground-by-Sunday contest. 🙂

    1. Tk what’s your early call for boston 4 maybe and say a lot 6 inch locations down here. Also do you think around midnight for the start time as I need to start thinking about an early Friday start because I do think the plows will be out in Boston . Good call by Pete for calling this back on Tuesday .

      1. At 5pm if there’s no snow on the ground, you have to change your title name to (charlie is the best blogger) if I lose I’ll change my name to idiot, deal?

          1. The weather forcast I’m looking at has it snowing in the city by 7 tonight but I thought it wasn’t till after midnight.

  60. I know these are hard to call…I am way up in NH where freedom reigns…hoping we don’t get much snow back in Woburn. Will make my snow removal ocd bad.

  61. John. Not sure if You are reading. Are your decorations up. Daughter just found a house in pembroke with timed lights and lots of decorations. Whole street was decorated.

    1. Not yet Vicki. I did turn on the lights tonight on the farmers porch and the air blown turkey is out front . The front will be done this weekend.

  62. Hope everyone had good dinners! Driving home from West Roxbury there were very light RAIN drops on my windshield. I though it was colder but its currently 36 degrees. Are temps expected to fall through the night? If not, wondering how coastal areas get to those 15:1 or higher ratios tonight?

  63. lights will be going up this weekend with lights being lit december 1st. We are also trying something new this year with some music, also started to make a sleeding hill 🙂

  68. Im still not sure where these high ratios are going to come from. A 10:1 ratio needs about 30 degrees, 15:1 25 degrees, 20:1 18 degrees. Its in the mid 30s in most coastal locations with cloudcover and an already fully saturated atmosphere (no evaporative cooling). For those reasons, I cant see temps dropping THAT much. We’ll see. I’m still very much intrigued with this precip forming along the south coast.

    1. It’s NOT just the surface temperature, it’s also the temperature in
      the snow growth zone, the layer where the flakes are formed. I have seen
      VERY LOW water content WET snow with it in the 30s. It can happen.

  69. Well the tempature is going to drop to 28 so the numbers I’m hearing 2-4 for boston but if they get under a heavy ban could be more. This one is coming no way around it. West of boston misses this one. Winter weather advisory already in place .

  70. The timing on this one brings the snow into Boston between 8 and 9. Not sure where the “after midnight” timing came from but not here. 🙂

    3. NWS and Mark Rosethal indicated After Midnight.

      I mentioned 8PM earlier today.

      Was at my daughters in Hoplinton. 1st flakes out there were 7PM.
      Barly out ran the snow as only a few flakes here when we got home, but
      within moments, steady light snow. 😀

      1. All the info I saw today was after midnight. I’m still wondering how we only get that little the 2-3 if it’s going to snow from now to mid morning.

  72. John, is it rain or snow down your way? Radar currently shows raining south coast, cape, and south shore.

  73. Snowing very lightly in Hingham.

    On a humorous note we have about 12 people over right now for Thanksgiving desert…we are all eating and enjoying things when my daughter starts whispering to my wife and they both start moving toward the kitchen counter near the stove. There was a very bold mouse sitting there munching on a hunk of Vermont Cheddar 🙂 A bunch of us went over to see and the brazen little rodent didn’t move for about 10 seconds..just kept munching away. Finally he realized it was time to boogie and jumped over the two traps and back behind the stove. To top it off we have two cats who don’t give a damn…..

      1. I’ve got glue traps all over and darn thing avoids them. I think I’m going to get us a Rat Terrier (What’s the story Wishbone….My kids loved that show back in the 90s)…Problem is our current dog will get jealous and our lazy cats will become even more lazy. BTW our friend just made a return trip to go for one of the pies…he went back after the dog went toward him. Little does he know but the dog just would have barked.

      2. Tom, did the ocean come up high enough to go over some roads yesterday? Daughter said around where Charlie’s used to be in brant rock and in the typical places in Humarock. She was surprised

        2. I wish I would have checked Vicki, but I didnt. I am sure it did though, while not a full or new moon, the moon is at perigee, so the tides are running astronomically high.

  77. I’m still not seeing the snow falling in boston on my phone which is very accurate but if it’s snowing in west Roxbury it’s got to be close.

  78. Anyone have the BZ mobile app? If so view Erics 6Pm broadcast available there.
    It has the srolling text at the bottom where it read; We have something called
    a NEW ORLEANS TROUGH! HILARIOUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  79. Its not a big deal, but where we live in eastern Marshfield, I’ll bet we lose a bit of snow to this light mist/drizzle for a while. We are a fair distance down rte. 139, to the point that even a NNW is off a small part of Massachusetts Bay. I do think we’ll turn to snow, but may get a coating to 1 inch, where maybe 2 miles more west, would get the 1-3.

  80. Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.
    What an embarassing loss for my Cowboys today against the Eagles. I am hoping we get one of the two wild card spots since chances of winning the NFC East don’t look good right now.

  81. At least were on the road next Thursday against Chicago and we have not lost on the road this season. I just hope bad Jay Cutler shows up next Thursday. The offensive line today which has been good all season was terrible today. The defense last few games has not looked good.

  82. Hope all of my weather family had a great Thanksgiving! We are tucked in on the couch now watching the very light snow and Ratouille. Perfect way to end the holiday.

    1. Of course not. Can you put it on the contest page. And please make sure I confirm that I entered it. My computer won’t be on again until Monday any heaven knows my memory never works that long :). And I thought I saw a few other names of folks who haven’t been here in a while. I hope I’m not overstepping my bounds by saying if you have guesses in tomorrow Ill add them too.

  86. Kane I believe this is the storm and it will just pick up real soon. I also believe we will see a lot of higher amounts. As many have said this is a tricky setup but these set ups do have a history of dropping more snow than predicted according to Harvey .

  87. Tk every single met I have seen today and all other outlets such as noa have said this comes in between 12-2 why is it they can’t even get the timing right. It started here before 7 tonight.

    1. I only watched a couple that said “evening”. But the futurecast projections showed the meat of the trough-induced snow coming in after 10 or 11PM. The very light snow around now is from a short-wave passing through. This, in combination with the inverted trough from low pressure far to the SE, will result in the more enhanced snow overnight and early Friday. They got the timing just fine.

      1. I think whats throwing us off is this little piece of precip that jas been moving into the area from the south. This wasnt as advertised.

  88. It’s important to note… This upcoming event is not a “storm” really, it’s an interaction of an upper level disturbance and an inverted trough at the surface. It gets underway slowly. Watch the radar trends. It’s not one area moving one direction. You’ll see echoes associated with the upper level energy sliding eastward while other echoes associated with lift over the trough moving more to the southwest in a low level northeasterly flow.

  89. For the general amounts, leaning toward the lower side and feel 1-3 is decent enough. There are going to be areas that come in under 1, and possibly a few that come in at 4 or 5, favoring portions of Cape Ann and the South Shore. We’ll have to see if any enhanced bands set up and where, and then from there how persistent they are.

    This is not going to be a huge event. It’s a light snowfall.

  90. I think those 1 inch amounts west and north of the city as Boston should easily come in over. Anyways time to get some sleep if you call it that cause I think the phone will be ringing within the next hour. Thanks tk.

    1. There isn’t much support for more than an inch or 2 west and north of the city. The upper disturbance is passing mainly just to the south, and the inverted trough is focused mainly right along and just off the coast. The best combination of these two features and light but somewhat onshore wind is from Cape Ann to the South Shore. Those areas are most likely to see snowfalls of around 3 or more inches. But even here it is no lock. It’s all depending on the westward extension of the trough.

  92. remember, radar might not be picking up areas that are snowing. This kind of snow does not always come in on radar. light snow falling here in billerica for the past hour and a half.

    1. When the snow is really low water content, more difficult for radar to
      pick up, especially when only light snow.

  93. Still Snowing here. Looking out under a street light, I can actually see the fluff
    factor in the flakes as they fall.

    All guidance points to 2 or 3 inches. Not that it is guaranteed. We shall see.

    Been very light snow all evening. Just picking up some now.

    Radar beginning to look funky

  95. From NWS

    HOWEVER…
    MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING UP TO HALF AN INCH OF QPF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TO JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THAT LENDS SOME LEVEL OF CERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION…STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE REALIZED.

  97. Good morning.
    Blah, blah and blah some more.

    Looked at 2AM not much
    4:30 AM not much
    6:oo Am not much
    7:00 Am looked a little more interesting.
    So I got about awhile ago. Snowing OK for the moment, but doesn’t look to last
    long,.

    Bordline moderate snow right now.
    Perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 inch overnight, is all.

      1. Morning Tom. Yup, looks nice.
        Vis was down to between 1/2 and 3/4 mile 15-20 minutes ago, now a mile or perhaps 1.5 mile. Looked again, maybe higher
        than that.

  98. REALLY looks interesting out there now.

    Looking at radar, big batch seems to be moving Soutwestward from NE Ma, down over
    the Boston Area.

  99. Green Bay for Sunday, forecast high = 35. Game time, should be what
    around freezing or so? I think Tom can handle that.

    1. He hasnt had to do it for a long time actually. I cant remember the last sub-freezing game he played in. Last years playoff games were all mild.

  100. Hello and good morning, little cold but expecting a high near 50.

    Is the friendly bet still on? I get home Sunday at 4-5pm r we on for no snow by then on ground? Heard north Wrentham area got a coating, tbere can’t be much on the ground.

    1. No friendly with me. As I said, it would depend upon how much snow fell
      this AM. NOT MUCH. Highest report I saw was 2 inches. Approaching
      3/4 inch here. but I think the snow totally quits within the next 1/2 hour
      and we’re done, not even squeaking out an inch.

    2. I’m afraid so.

      Mr. Norlun and Company came, didn’t like what they saw and LEFT!!

      NOT impressive at all. In all honesty, it never looked all that impressive.
      We’ve seen MUCH more impressive Norluns before.
      The 1-3 and 2-4 inch forecasts were probably the Max we could have possibly expected out of this and even that UNDER performed for the most part.

      TK was not impressed. He even said some would NOT see an inch.

      What a bummer

  105. We needed that batch of precip sitting East and North of the Cape and enveloping
    the Outter Cape to Be Parked over Eastern MA. Didn’t happen that way.

  109. As of 8AM Logan has measure .1 inch melted. That “should” equate to at least
    1.5 inches of snow with expected ratio, if not a tad more.

    1. I’m in Woburn, and I have an amount.

      I just don’t know what it is yet. 😉

      Actually, eyeballing from inside, it’s close to an inch.

  111. Charlie… I’m not sure there is even a bet to be made. I haven’t even made a decision about snow-on-ground by Sunday in that area, and it may very well be the case that I happen to agree with you, which would put us both on the same side of the bet. 🙂

    Other question, are you expecting a high near 50 today? Or Sunday?

    1. I can buy 50 Sunday. I was wondering if you meant today. Won’t get out of the 30s, maybe a 40 over Cape Cod.

  113. Just went to the front door to pick up a delivery. Looks to be 3/4 to perhaps as much as 1 inch on the grass.

  115. On radar, snow has EXITED the area and about to exit the coast. In reality, a Few flakes still drifting down from the sky. Radar tells the story. SEE YA! Nice Knowing Ya. Wish you could have stayed longer.

  116. That’s a wrap. Boston gets screwed again. Brant rock had over two inches this morning, that’s sitting right on the water .

    1. You beat me to it OS. I was just looking at those reports. I saw the one for Sharon (not my report) and i can say there is NOT 1.2″ here. Half inch maybe 3/4 but thats it.

    1. Not too weird. We expected a few areas that would become enhanced and end up near or just over the top of the 1-3 forecast range in that area. 🙂

  119. Taking the unpredictability of inverted troughs and also factoring in there was a weak upper disturbance in the area too, overall not really any surprises. Lower end to just shy of the 1-3 range in the forecast. Several areas solidly in the range. Given about a 15:1 ratio (closer to 10:1 southeast) that fall into tiny error, nearly negligible.

    Now that moves out, breaks of sun later. Next shot of a little light snow/sleet/ice Saturday night and early hours of Sunday before the mild air gets in.

    And as a colleague and I used to say: Change the month, change the pattern. That’s going to apply this time. December 1 through at LEAST 10 will be in the mild regime overall. Cold airmasses will make brief visits. Toward mid month starting to see signs of a return to a colder but dry pattern at that time.

  120. To me, this November in Marshfield, at least, weatherwise ….. is a November to remember.

    There were 2 “accumulating” snow events, along with a rain/ice pellet nor’easter. Plentiful cold, so many early mornings seeing ice covered collections of water in the back yard. Many, many days in the 40s. I think we used the heat as much as I can remember in November.

    So, I’d like the snow on the ground to stick around for a day ….. it does look nice and I’d like my kids to have a chance to play around in it.

    But, I will not be disappointed if the first half of December brings many periods of milder weather and maybe a little less stormy.

  123. Finally got out to measure.

    2.0 inches in Woburn. All fluff.

    Had myself in a 1-3 area, so I’d say that verified. 😉

  124. 4.5 inches of snowfall between the two events. 3 inches last night. does not look like we will be seeing snowfall for a bit as the systems look to form to far to the east or go over the great lakes

  125. Not that this will happen, but from the 12Z GFS, IGive you the Birth of a coastal
    redevelopment. CLASSIC! AWESOME!
    This is out there around 12/12-12/13

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=336

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=348

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=360

  127. From OS almost to the day a year ago reporting ocean temps. Just a couple degrees warmer this year. I wonder if these are the same two bouys?

    Old Salty says:
    November 29, 2013 at 10:30 AM

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Water Temperature: 47.5 °F (8.6 °C)

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Water Temperature: 47.8 °F (8.8 °C)

    Water temps are slowly coasting downward. 😀

  128. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 51m51 minutes ago
    GFS upgrade busting lately while “old” model didn’t. Not good.

      1. So what will they do? release it and give us a Piece of shit
        like they did with the Euro? Or continue to fine tune it before
        releasing it?

    2. Interesting thought OS. Can’t remember what the optimum differential has to be to create the instability between the air and water.

      1. The air temperatures at 850 mb should be at least 13°C colder than the underlying water. In addition, the length of the fetch is also important. A fetch parallel to the major axis is important in lake effect snow. In general, the fetch must be at least 75 km to produce lake effect snow.

        For Tuesday 850 Temp = -6C
        Water about 49.5 or 9.7C

        Thats a difference of 15.7 C

        CAPE over the water =250 joules. Comes on land?????

        1. More

          Instability[edit]
          A temperature difference of 13 °C (23 °F) (or as past researchers have estimated: between 15 °C and 25 °C) between the lake temperature and the height in the atmosphere (~1,500 meters or 4,921 feet at which barometric pressure measures 850 millibars (85 kilopascals)) provides for absolute instability and allows vigorous heat and moisture transportation vertically. Atmospheric lapse rate and convective depth are directly affected by both the mesoscale lake environment and the synoptic environment; a deeper convective depth with increasingly steep lapse rates and a suitable moisture level will allow for thicker, taller lake effect precipitation clouds and naturally a much greater precipitation rate.[3]

      1. Not enough info?
        Why too stable? Surface temps in 20s, Ocean temp near 50
        850MB temp low 20s or lower.
        18Z Monday winds NNE.

        Why too dry?

        RH over water and on land in coastal sections 60%
        Seems with that steamy water, lot’s of moisture could be
        generated.

        Why wouldn’t there be instability?

        Please educate us. What am I missing?

        Just looks like a good set up.

  130. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    Boston had 2.3 inches of snow today, which exceeds the old record for this calendar day of 2.2 inches, set in 1917.

  131. Re: Ocean Effect

    Taking what TK said to Heart, I tried to see WHY that wouldn’t be a good set up

    The temperature contrast could be limited because we are beginning to see
    some warm air over running at that time. Tanslation: The 850 mb temperatures
    WOULD BE MUCH colder otherwise.

    The other concern may be the wind speed. Too low, won’t work. Too high, won’t work. It has to be the Goldilocks situation of just right.

    So I await a response from Tk.

    OBVIOUSLY something is missing, OR the models would paint a stripe of precip
    along the coast and so far they have not. I just want to understand what that is so I can apply it for future situations.

    INTERESTING.

  132. These photos are NOT touched up. They are real. This is a real Place. My wife and I have been on that very beach in St. Martin.

    These shots are real. Have a look at some:

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/c3e712ed-ebc2-478e-99fc-697a458a7ddd.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/9dd9b1dd-61e1-45e6-9c5c-67b643c9c29d.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/127dfa07-0283-43d6-b1a8-73e11f5e895f.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/5f4ece74-c4f0-4e1a-be3e-78910a52df75.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

  136. Good evening!!

    Down here in the boothill in Missiouri, temps TOMMORROW around 60 degrees, Sunday will be in the mid 60’s, and when I get back temps should be in the 50’s Sunday and Monday.

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