The Week Ahead

128 Comments

1:27AM

The first 5 days of the week will be impacted by one storm, which will develop over the waters south of New England Monday, track northward right into southern New England Tuesday, hang around right over the region Wednesday and Thursday, then move away to the northeast on Friday.

Monday’s impact will be an increasing northeast wind with cloudiness as high pressure retreats northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes and the storm organizes to the south. Some snow showers may move in from the ocean during the day, especially in eastern coastal areas, but no significant snow accumulation will occur. Tuesday will be the day of greatest impact, with a solid area of moderate to heavy rain lifting northward across southeastern New England, along with some gusty wind. As the low center wobbles around the region Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll have somewhat drier air being pulled into the system along with some areas of instability, but the air will be mild enough for rain showers to be scattered around on Wednesday, however many areas may be rain-free for much of the day. Similar conditions are expected Thursday but with air just a little colder, rain or snow showers are possible. By Friday, it will be slightly colder still but with less moisture, so there is just a chance of a few snow showers.

By the weekend, expect high pressure to build in, along with a milder trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers and drizzle possible especially in the afternoon near eastern coastal areas. Little accumulation. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers or freezing drizzle early. Lows around 30 early then rising through the 30s overnight. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain developing south to north, may start as snow briefly outside of I-495 especially north of the Mass Pike. Heaviest rain late. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to SE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts over 30 MPH inland, over 40 MPH near the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 30. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

128 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. I believe there is a Flood watch for Tuesday along with Wind Advisories.

  4. Thanks TK !

    We’ve had a trace of snow grains/graupel and continue to have spits of it falling.

    Windy !!

  7. It’s so ironic how cold it is this morning and then bam it’s warm for the storm. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a storm stall for nearly 3 days. What a shame 🙂 🙂

    Charlie did you ever answer TK on the last blog.

    1. Indeed. Ordinarily this would be at least a decent setup for a snow storm.
      But no! It’s a negative tiltorama!!

      A pure CRAPFEST!

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Snow grains this morning in JP, Very light snow grains all the way into the office.
    Looking East, I could see lowering visibility over downtown. Sitting in my car
    before coming into the office I could see a steady but very light cascading of small
    flakes of snow.

    This upcoming event is disgusting!

  9. One last comment on the game last night. At the end of the day, a WIN is a WIN and that’s a good thing.

    Negative points:

    Red zone ineptitude
    Dreadful Brady pick
    4 consecutive “3 and outs” to start the 2nd half.

    Why they won:

    DEFENSE
    EDELDAMAN

    Edelman was ALL WORLD last night. Brilliant performance.

  11. Down to a frigid 2 degrees here in Plymouth, NH this morning. Hard to believe even we are subject to mostly rain/mix for this storm. A toasty 22 on Mt Washington though. Tim Kelley on Twitter is noting the potential for icing with that warm aloft/cold surface setup for parts of central and northern New England.

  12. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 1m1 minute ago
    Ocean-effect flurries have become a light snow at @BostonLogan – very light, visibility 9 miles.

  13. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 8m8 minutes ago
    Strong high. Video coming

    Not sure what Bernie is getting at here? Cold air Damning? I dunno.
    It doesn’t freakin matter with the track of this storm. It could have been -20 here
    and it would still rain!!!! (albeit with front end snow/ice)

    1. That is one of the problems. The other is the Freakin system in the great lakes drawing milder air in aloft ahead of the developing coastal.

      Although perhaps not classic, but I wonder IF we are not seeing somewhat of a
      Fujiwhara effect

      From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

      The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as Fujiwara interaction or binary interaction, is when two nearby cyclonic vortices orbit each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. Extratropical cyclones typically engage in binary interaction when within 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of one another, while tropical cyclones typically interact within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other.

  16. I read in the NWS discussions out of Tauton, MA 0z EURO run has trended slightly colder. To me unless some miracle happens with the 12z runs this will be a rainorama with gusty winds.

    1. Of course. What else would it be.

      The only “chance” for any snow would be on the back end and ONLY IF
      conditions work out just right, which quite honestly, are NOT likely.

      But of course, we shall take a peek at the 12Z runs.

      12Z NAM is an an absolute CRAPFEST.

  18. Man so much disgust for rain…to think people on the WBZ blog use to accuse some of you for rooting for snow and it was denied 🙂 I, for one, don’t mind…been able to keep the oil cost down, and run the heat pump more. Winter hasn’t even started yet…don’t see the rush. It will come and maybe some of you will be sick of snow in a few months.

    1. 😀 😀

      Hey, I have NEVER denied that I root for snow. Was born that way, sorry.

      In the end, we have NO control over what happens. Doesn’t mean
      I don’t “root” for snow.

      I’d much rather this system passed over Nantucket, so even though it would
      still rain here, it would be a Clean Snow Storm for inland and ski areas.

      This system Blows Chunks and then some!!

    1. Same here at the office. Snow has picked up just a bit. Visibility lowering
      some. Still very light snow, just a bit stronger than previously.

      I can’t believe we are so excited by a bit of ocean snow. 😆 😆 😆

      We take what we can get.

  27. There’s nothing wrong with rooting for snow IMO, or any kind of weather for that matter. We all tend to gravitate toward some kind of weather and have passion about it or why else would we all be on here? I think the issue for some comes when rooting isn’t based on facts, or an honest analysis of the facts. Most of us rooters do a good job of backing up our roots though 🙂

    1. We TRY, however, once in awhile, our WISHES come out instead. 😀
      Only Natural, I suppose. We do, however, try very hard to curb that instinct
      and keep it honest and based on meteorology, even if we fail occasionally.

  28. Although the 12Z NAM does NOT show it, the 12Z GFS shows a Healthy Slug of
    ocean snow for Eastern MA ALL DAY today. Gets enhanced from “about” 1PM to say
    about 7PM tonight.

    Wind is still North. When it turns more NNE to NE, should get some enhancement
    to the snow.

    We shall see.

    FWIW HRRR shows ocean snow commencing “about” Noon Time, yet it’s already happening? Don’t know what to make of that.

  29. Frigid this morning in terms of feel. I didn’t think it would get this cold. In fact, if my measurement is accurate so far in December we’re at or slightly below average temperature-wise. So, my assessment 10 days ago was wrong. This said, I still see a significant warm-up ahead with 50s very much in the medium range, and possibly long-range, too. Could last night be the last night it dips below 20F until January? I think this is a distinct possibility.

    I was at the Cat Stevens concert last night. He’s such a mild, modest, kind person. So rare these days in performers. You can tell he’s not egocentric, which is refreshing. He played a lot from my favorite album of his, which he in an almost self-deprecating way called the “album with a drawing of an old man and his tea cups.” Overall, the concert’s combination of folk music with an English twist and stirring blues really resonated with me. What a year 1970 was for albums, including Let it Be, Sweet Baby James, Tea for the Tillerman, Hendrix and the Band of Gypsies, the list goes on and on, followed by a similarly remarkable list in 1971 (Carole King’s Tapestry, Led Zeppelin’s masterpiece, etc …). Yes, music has changed, and not for the better, in my view.

    1. Great that you enjoyed the concert.

      Re: temperatures.

      Will NOT NOT NOT dip below 20 until NEXT YEAR.

      I agree 100%

  30. Although the 12Z CMC is nowhere near complete, it does show the initial low
    tucking Westward through NYC and beyond, and then shows a hint of a NEW
    storm developing well SE of there and well South of Nantucket. Not sure what
    it will eventually show.

  31. Nice coastal front in place……….. Mid 30s, northeasterly winds … Marshfield, points south and eastward ………………. low 20s and lower north and west of that, northerly winds.

  32. I’m kind of looking forward to the radar and satellite of the approaching storm.

    I think we usually look towards NYC, Philly, Washington …. but, I think the bulk of the next system will be approaching more from the eastern end of Long Island or south of Block Island.

    1. OR even SE of there. 😀

      I wonder IF the onset will be in some sort of FROZEN mode in Boston, at least
      for a little while????

      1. Indeed ….

        I personally think Logan, (in the next 24 or so hrs before the precip from the storm hits), will see a huge temperature jump into the 37-42F range. Just a wind switch to even NE is going to jump them from 21F to probably 34F or 35F. I think most of eastern Mass will have moderated significantly by noon tomorrow.

        But, it sure has been an impressively cold day today, to this point.

  33. 11 AM Logan Obs. Still ONLY 21!!!!

    08 10:54 N 13 7.00 Light Snow OVC024 21 14 74% 8 NA 30.74 1040.9

    Intensity really picking up!!! Vis down to 7 MILES!!!
    I joke of course. 😀 😀 😀

  34. Burst of ocean snow might put down 1/2 to 1 inch of fine powder just west of coastal front this afternoon.

    2. I can see that in boston tonight easily. It’s been snowing all day here and suger coatings all around and some area have needed handfuls of salt .

  35. Good afternoon!! A little light snow to make it feel like December, in my travels I’ve seen patchy sugar coatings. Very cold today even for December standards. Looking like a very wet couple days ahead. Good day 🙂

  38. Just does NOT seem to be any organization to the Ocean Snow.

    Unless something changes soon, I don’t see much of anything happening.

    1. The boundary is in place but we haven’t had enough lift over it to form up an enhanced band. Some of the short range guidance had it so cannot completely ignore it. They can develop rather suddenly. Will keep the possibility in play into early evening.

  39. However, wind STILL NORTH at Boston.
    2PM Logan = 24
    Pretty chilly day. MUCH COLDER than anticipated

    1. Sneaky very low level cold.

      Today is one of my favorite kinds of late Autumn / early Winter days. 🙂

  40. 00z Euro was WAY too slow and active with surface lows under the upper.

    12z looks a little better. The only real “stormy” day is going to be tomorrow.

    Yes the upper hangs around and it’s unsettled into late week but we’re not about to have several days of rain.

  42. 18Z NAM has trended a bit more to the EAST. Still a RAINORAMA with a changeover up North after a thumping.

    1. Clsoer to the coast it is for Light freezing rain or Freezing drizzle.
      Farther inland a bit of snow 1st, then the freezing dirzzle/rain

  46. Does freezing drizzle = frizzle?

    Next snowstorm, maybe Xmas week, but more likely we will all wait until January. 🙁

  48. 4Pm

    Logan: 25, Wind STILL NORTH

    Blue Hill: 21, Wind NORTH

    Plymouth: 35, Wind EAST

    Norwood: 24, Wind NORTH

    Taunton 28, wind NORTHWEST

    Worester 20, wind NORTH. 20!!!!!

    Bedford 22, Wind NORTH

    RADAR still pretty QUIET

  49. Street light is on and I can see better.
    STILL a very light snow or possibly snizzle falling here. BUT it LOOKS
    like SNOW

  50. 18Z is also a bit farther to the East, but does not good for us.
    “helps” keep more snow in Ski country. It kind of FILLS right over SE
    MA and RI. 😀

  51. Why am I NOT surprised.

    Lou Merloni retweeted
    Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago
    Sources: Barring late change, Lester choosing between #Cubs, #SFGiants.

    Boston sucked eggs on this one!
    They ROYALLY BLEW IT!!!!

      1. Talked to a daughter of a friend the other day who is close to a lot of pats players …dated a couple and others…married and not,,good friends. She didn’t know a Charlie. Do,you go by another name ?

  54. Lou Merloni retweeted
    Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 12m12 minutes ago
    Lester agent Seth Levinson says idea of Red Sox being out and Giants, Cubs currently finalists “absolutely untrue”

  58. Lester has not made a decision. I’m not sure if it was last week or the week before I came on here and heard Lester went to another team not the sox, gladly that was false. Let’s wait till we hear from Lester himself .

    1. Hope you are correct, but I’d say he does NOT come to Boston.

      Why would he. They’d have to blow him away and they had a chance to do that already. Not gonna happen.

      1. If we don’t get Lester there are plenty of other very good pitching targets out there including Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Jeff Smaradzjia, Rick Porcello, etc. The Sox can go both the FA route and also through trades as they are loaded in their minor league system

  63. 38.1F air temp 16 nautical miles out in Boston Harbor and climbing. Wind direction is 100 degrees. When that wind goes northeast and east, the temp rise near the coastline will be quick.

  64. I wonder if Boston and its suburbs are about to get a dusting/coating of snow/sleet from a blob of precip coming ashore ???

  67. OS, I just checked some I93 webcams and ….

    Its precipitating. The roads are wet. The distant visibility in the lights looks 2-3 miles, but its got that hazy, foggy like background.

    I’m going to guess there’s a mix of snow grains and perhaps some freezing mist falling in Boston.

  71. Changed stores and was outside. Snowing decently. Everyting covered including roads. Will be very slippery soon

  72. It’s 27 there now and the snow was sticking this afternoon as salt was needed all over and that was lightly falling. If boston gets into a heaviet burst for a few hours it will get interesting there tonight in the city and surrounding neighborhoods . I’m thinking the warm air holds off till tomorrow and won’t go up past 32 tonight. Get ready .

  74. Snowing good in Woburn…everything more than covered and coming down. Hate weather like this…prefer all snow or all rain…this half and half stuff sucks.

  78. Came out of last store and it Stopped. Did not snow again until about Newton.
    Snowing steadily here now in JP. Temp 26.1

    1. Still snowing lightly. Temp has crept up to 27.1
      beginning to go UP at a faster pace. This shouldn’t last too much longer.

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