Quick Forecast Update

7:36AM

Quick update only. Full discussion and updated forecast later today…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered drizzle. Isolated rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Numerous rain showers after midnight. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through mid morning, ending lastly over Cape Cod. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early then W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow inland, rain or snow coast. Low 25. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

104 thoughts on “Quick Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Air this month has felt and smelled so much like the air you feel in the Netherlands in December. The relatively small temperature difference between day and night are also very typical over there. I’m not seeing any significant snowfall this month, mostly rain events. I’m also not biting on a resurgence of truly cold air. This said, thus far this month it’s been colder during the day than I thought it would be. Nighttime frost has been fairly minimal, though.

    1. If you believe that, then you believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
      AND I have some swamp land in Florida for you.

      😆 👿 😈 😆

      We shall see.

      1. It’s unfortunately the big story of this winter so far: Lots of rain. I don’t think that pattern will end anytime soon. I did enjoy this past weekend, and yesterday’s weather was nice, too.

        1. I’m afraid I’m with you so far.

          I don’t see SNOW for the 21st OR Christmas.
          Plenty of time for the Christmas one, and time running out
          for the 21st. Thermal profiles SUCK in either case.

          Everything would have to line up perfectly and so far we
          see ZERO signs of any of that happening.

          Perhaps the 12Z runs will uncover something.

          ALSO, the Pacific energy should begin to get sampled really soon, perhaps changing the scenario around a bit.

  2. Big pattern change on the way. I still wouldn’t write off the 21st storm, although if we don’t see the models pick it back up by tonight we can probably assume it’s a no go. There should be a final resurgence of warmth nationwide in about 7-9 days, then the freezer opens as we head into January. A big storm, likely a rain storm for us, right around Christmas should be the catalyst for the change. There will be some bitter Arctic air around here for early January. Not necessarily snow though. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast (potentially including as far south as near the Gulf Coast) are more likely to see significant snow than us.

    That’s how I’m reading the pattern at least 🙂

    1. I just hope it’s not like a few years ago where it was coming, coming, coming
      and NEVER came!

      But this year it will probably come and SUPPRESS every storm to the SOUTH
      EXCEPT the occasional one that breaks through to the North via the
      GREAT LAKES!!!!!

  3. 0z run shows the storm arriving later than previously thought as well, If it comes later, there will be limited cold air to work with. storm also looks weaker. If this is the case probably can put a fork in it, lets see what the 12z run shows.

  4. Pattern change may indeed be in the offing. Not in time for Christmas snow, although WxWatcher makes a good point. Arctic air may be dragged into the region from the Christmas storm. After that, there could be a fair amount of suppression. That is, the Mid Atlantic get in the action in early January, but we stay high and dry. Usually the Mid Atlantic storms that have the Lows skirting well east of Long Island do impact CC and the Islands a bit, but we’re in relatively dry air with an impenetrable shield holding precipitation at bay. I think we’re jinxed this year so far.

  5. This might be the quote of the year from DT, and winter hasn’t even officially started 😀

    “The worst weather model the world for forecasting East Coast winter storms … has continued its trend of showing almost no development from the system coming out of the gulf coast for DEC 20-21 . It has the weak in significant system that brings rain with some mix precipitation over inland areas of VA WVA NC DEL. Quite frankly the precipitation is so light on the new GFS model that I can say confidently I produce more liquid when I Piss than what the operational or regular GFS is depicting here.”

  6. Feeling is we are more likely to snow for the Solstice storm in coastal MA and less likely to snow for the Christmas threat, if that comes to fruition.

    1. The MORE likely it is to snow with the solstice storm, IF that’s what you want to call it, the Less likely the qpf will be. 😀 😀

    2. I must admit to being a bit confused on the solstice storm and snow prospects …..

      If the air temp is marginal and the storm grazes us, with lighter precip, then wouldn’t lighter intensity lead to rain or non-accumulating snow

      but ….

      If the precip is heavier, it probably gets that way by the storm being closer, but then all the things that come with a closer storm track when temps are already marginal to begin with …….

      What are we seeing that brings snow into this solstice event ?

      Thanks 🙂

      1. In Between intensity. Enough to give some reasonable qpf, but not enough for rain. Sure? And remember, I’m Santa Claus.

        But I’ll take a gift if that is what’s coming. 😀 😀 😀

          1. Tom, That was not a definitive answer, just a guess on my part based on what trends I have been seeing. 😀

  7. 12Z GFS is Serving up a BIG LAKES CUTTER for Christmas dinner.
    Will dessert be served as a coastal? Stay tuned. 😀

  8. Drizzle forecast is verified. A few small – diameter drops on my windshield in Reading MA as of 11:50AM.

  9. Harvey putting himself out there…
    Harvey Leonard @HarveyWCVB
    Pattern becomes more active & trends colder. 3 potential storms between now & Christmas #WCVB

    1. Yup he said trending colder starting the weekend. people
      writing of the storms may want to take back one out of the
      two hits. Harvy is not wrong often.

      1. Well, in what order ?????

        I don’t know, the EURO’s 850mb temps haven’t seemed cold to me. I don’t think the 00z EURO;s temps were cold at all.

        Maybe on the 12Z ???

        I guess that’s my biggest confusion. Where this trend to colder is coming from …… the GFS ???????

  10. For the 21st storm, the 12z Euro threw down a half inch or so of QPF, but all as rain. The low is about 30mb too weak and a hundred miles or so too far southeast.

        1. It’s not done yet, but looks very interesting for the Christmas storm through 8 days. Have to see how much of a coastal forms.

            1. Late 24th into most of the 25th. 12z Euro shows a strong storm, but the coastal forms too far west. Would be all rain. Quite a setup though.

                1. As depicted, looks like all rain with maybe some backside snow. Long time to watch this one. Unlike the 21st storm, this one appears very likely to happen, it’s just a question of the effects.

              1. The coastal does form too for west but then it looks like it moves almost due east after that bringing down colder air with a nice high to the north

                1. Not really. Miller B systems usually track up the Ohio Valley and spawn the coast somewhere from NC/VA/MD/DE and even NJ.

                  This one is cutting more towards the Lakes and then forms a coastal.

                  Not sure we can call it a Miller-B
                  Miller-Bastardized maybe. 😀

  11. I’m sickened after looking at the 12Z runs for the Solstice storm.
    Too weak, too far off shore. ALL of them PATHETIC.

    My attention is now moving to the Christmas system and where the BLEEP is the 2rd system coming from discussed by Harvey? The SNOW FAIRY????????????

  12. I see my use of reverse psychology on the atmosphere may be starting to work. 😉

    Teeheehee…

  13. Taking a look at the GFS for Christmas

    First it is:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

    Which transitions to this

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

    I know there was a discussion above. I wish we had one frame in between those 2.
    But dealing with what we have, looks like a rain to snow or as Ace or Wx Watcher said, snow to rain to snow. Looks like there “could” be a healthy slug of snow in there somewhere. We need to keep watching.

    The Euro has it in a slightly different configuration. Just too early, but overall
    this is the system that just “may” give us some snow.

    A WACTHER

    the Solstice is looking more and more like a WIMPORAMA!!!

  14. I’m sorry, but there’s nothing on the 12z EURO that inspires me about the 21st.

    Not enough cold air established …… every scenario needs the …… well, if it tracks this way and there’s enough heavy precip and the wind is this way and …… if we need to do that, then we’re in trouble for snow.

  15. I know the temperatures are marginal for the 21st, but it is really hard for me to believe that a storm moves well south and east of us and produces rain. That would be quite rare I believe. There may not be any arctic cold around, but are we giving too much credence to models temp profiles 4-5 days out? Track well south and east would seem to support snow, but I am a novice and would welcome any thoughts here

    1. Generally speaking for the Winter yes, however, even in the dead of Winter
      if it is mild at mid-levels, it’s mild and that does NOT support snow, unless
      it is 32 or below virtually all the way up. OF course it can be above 32 near the surface. But if it’s 45 in the 4,000-6,000 foot range, ain’t gonna snow. Just the way it is.

      We shall see.

        1. On the 1000mb-500mb thickness chart look for
          the 540 line. Less than this it favors snow. More it favors rain. Also like 850MB to be -2C or -3C or less, although
          it is not hard and fast, just a guideline.

          There are a couple of other thickness charts to look at as well. Check out the Winter Parameters on the JMA model.

          This site has it:

          http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm

          Here is the chart of which I speak:

          http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_THK_WINTER-CRITICAL_120HR.gif

          Winter Critical Thickness (Black = 1000-850hPa, Blue = 1000 – 700hPa, Magenta = 1000-500hPa, Green = 850-700hPa, Cyan = 850-500hPa)

    2. I also think its taking what the model(s) give you and asking how it fits relative to everything else.

      For example, if we look at the EURO’s 850 mb temp projections prior to 12/21 …. Say for 12/19 and 12/20, there not cold at all, there somewhere around 0C, give or take.

      So, it could be 40F-42F right before 12/21.

      So, the boundary layer is somewhat mild, you’d have some ocean influence in a light onshore flow, light precip ….. So, would the 0 to -5C 850mb temps projected on 12/21 be able to overcome all that. They could, but whats it going to get the column down to in eastern Mass. Probably the good ole 33F to 34F temp range at which you’d need decent intensity to snow and accumulate.

      To me, its the big picture and the big picture is consistently arguing against decent or big snow, at least the next week to maybe 10 days. Thats my take.

  16. Declination of the sun is 23-21, days r about as short as they get, in a month sunsets will be around 5pm!! , in the meantime I’m just waiting for the 1st meaningful snow of the year. Chilly out there but feels like rain 🙁

  17. 20th/21st storm looks more and more further out to sea and looks weaker. christmas day storm. There better not be one lol

  18. A handful of parents filed with FCC because Brady repeated an expletive three times during Sundays game…it was not broadcast but they said their kids could read his lips. Can’t help but wonder how they knew the word to begin with.

    1. I have mixed feelings on this one. On one hand, its in the heat of the moment and capturing that raw emotion was awesome. But on the other hand, i do give some blame to the network. Where they went wrong was they continued to show Mr. Brady cussing when they should have panned away after the first time. They knew exactle what they were doing.

      1. If the kids could read his lips, then they probably knew what the word was already. I say parents should just tell their kids not to use those words EVER and let it go at that.

        1. I agree. They will hear them and it is a learning moment. I would rather teach my child it is not right but it happens than teach him to make a big deal out of it in the media.

          Ace I also agree with you but it is football. I’ve seen Brady use the word just once and a camera can’t move. If someone knows his kids read lips then explain or don’t let them watch.

          1. I’ll add I have never seen Brady so fired up on the
            Side lines as I have seen this season. I believe he knows that with this team right now they have a real legit shot at not only making the Super Bowl but winning it that is if they have no injuries. Brady is a good guy off the field a good role model for the game. It’s heated out there emotions take over its not that big a deal but people want to make it one. Compared to all the other crap going on off the field with plays beating there kids and wife’s I’ll take Brady letting his emotions out on the field and if the camera wants to stay on him shame on them. Brady is a damn good person and conducts himself that way on and off the field.

            1. Although I’ve seen him emotional lots of times, I totally agree, John. He is a person I’d respect as a roll model

          2. I just think CBS could have and should have done more to avoid it. I can see showing a shot of it then pan away when they realized what was happening, but to keep the camera on him while he continued multiple times wasn’t necessary. Regardless of whether one thinks its right or wrong, i think the whole issue the parents have is that it’s obvious CBS purposely showed it knowing full well what was going on. I believe that can be considered an FCC violation.

            1. I agree cbs could have done more. Do you think is it an FCC violation when he says the word once. He does it fairly regularly. I’m not sure what difference once or thrice means to a kid. Is still wonder how the kids knew the word to begin with.

              Trying to look at it from a different perspective and as a parent, I would teach my child there are words that should not be used. They will hear them soon enough. I wouldn’t teach them to take it to the media publicly…..not at six

  19. I used my shovel maybe twice in all of the 2011-12 Winter. It was one Saturday in mid-January and perhaps one other time that I can’t remember. I have yet to use the shovel so far and the way temps are looking, many of us likely won’t be using any shovels or blowers for the rest of the year. 🙁

    1. Christmas Phil . Bad timing but this is what I calked for by midnight Xmas eve . Now looking like a powerful storm could touch down on Xmas eve. Just need the right setup . Cold will be in place I think.

      1. According to Eric, the Christmas Eve storm looks like an inside runner so far…also the arctic air is taking its sweet time coming down into the CONUS and the east coast is likely going to be the last to see it. By that time, all the storm threats to our south will be gone. That is the bad feeling I have.

        1. I’ll tell you why it’s coming. After I work Xmas eve I’m on vacation till the Monday after New Years they’ll be a storm to delay my vacation lol

          1. As far as the cold goes it starts getting cold on Sunday and I believe it stays that way. That would be a few days of cold before the storm on Xmas eve.

            1. It’s not going to stay cold from Sunday on. It’s going to take a couple weeks to fully change the pattern.

  20. The Solstice threat may be more about the upper level configuration than the position and strength of any surface low.

    ANY set of possibilities can be argued at this point for the threat nearest to or on Christmas.

      1. upper level low from great lakes interacting with low to the south.. could produce some snow/rain sunday -monday ?

    1. The date would be Xmas eve. Yes from Sunday on it won’t be cold from here on out buy I believe it stays cold from Sunday till Xmas than warms back up for the following week.

  21. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

    Well, I guess I’ve been assuming that around or just before New Years, it might truly get cold.

    Then, the 12z EURO seemed to somewhat back off on central and northern Canada cold days 8-10, compared to what it had been showing the last few days.

    So, here are the latest teleconnection forecasts.

    I have to say after looking at these …..I wont be surprised if once we get past Christmas, that maybe all of a sudden, we’ll have models either further delaying the cold or backing off of it.

    The NAO hits neutral, but look at the end, looks like the trend hints at heading a bit up towards positive again around the end of December.

    Same with the arctic oscillation, headed towards neutral, but then …. there’s a split with some ensembles going both ways.

    PNA, staying slightly positive, but nothing that screams huge western ridge.

      1. Sunday : dont know if we see any precip, a light amount or a lot. Not enough consistent model runs yet on storm track and strength. But, more confident that its not a snow producer, too many signs to me of marginal cold.

        Christmas, I have no idea. Too early, but, the one thing I dont think changes in the big picture is that it will still be marginally cold at best. So, extremely early guess hedges a lot more towards rain than snow.

      1. Speaking of Jimmy…RAINORAMAS for the rest of the year? 🙁

        If this is a sign for the upcoming winter overall, then 2011-12 (9.3″) could end up historically “snowy” in comparison…scary thought.

  22. Pretty mild night for mid December. I think both storms end up being rain if we even get the first storm.

    What I do believe is in the cold air coming in after xmas but more so towards New Years. Run to run consistency has been horrid by all models so I am not surprised that the 12z euro backed off slightly.

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