Arctic Absensce

227 Comments

2:48AM

The Arctic air which inhabited Canada for much of the month of November headed back over the pole and into Siberia during December and has shown very little push back into North America. Though there are signs that this will finally begin to change, it will take place slowly, so systems between now and the holiday will have limited cold air to work with. This will limit, but not eliminate, the chance of getting some snow on the ground before Christmas. However, the system coming through southeastern New England today is not going to be one that brings the chance of any meaningful snowfall. A parent low pressure area is passing well northwest of the region while a secondary low moves right across southeastern New England. The most widespread rain will take place first thing in the morning, with just lots of clouds and a few showers otherwise. Tonight, cooler air will filter in, and some rain showers will be around at first, but eventually overnight and into Thursday morning, a disturbance will bring a chance of snow showers as air will become cold enough. Drier air will filter in later Thursday and especially Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds in. By Sunday, developing low pressure over the Southeast is expected to move off the Mid Atlantic Coast. At this time, it appears this system will not turn into a major storm, but it, combined with high pressure to the north, will bring cloudiness and a chance of some rain and snow to the region Sunday. Low pressure may be slow to move away so that some snow showers are possible Monday, before narrow high pressure brings dry weather for Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog into mid morning, including rain which will end southwest to northeast. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of a few rain showers remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to variable becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Chance of snow showers late at night. Lows in the 30s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 19. High 41.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/rain. Low 28. High 38.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 36.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

227 thoughts on “Arctic Absensce”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Wow, EURO cranks up a 968 mb !!!! monster about a week or so from now. That would impact a lot of Christmas Eve travel (ignoring snow impact to its north and west, just thinking the wind impact).

    Wonder if this trend of a strong Christmas Eve storm on the EURO continues ……..

      3. I think we might make it right through the new year with not much of anything O.S. then OTS for January . We’re gonna have a lot of making up to do in February

        1. I know it’s not even Winter yet, but things are just not
          looking good. IF it ever get cold, we have hope.
          Time will tell. Not much we can do about it.

          I really wanted a white Christmas. Next year perhaps.

  3. Good morning. Feeling really pessimistic right now. Haven’t had a look at anything
    yet. I did peek at the 0Z GFS and I could barely find a surface representation of
    much of anything for the 21st.

    Brief comment on the Brady stuff. Much a do about NOTHING. The man was
    playing football. Who cares what he said. If kids see it, too bad. That’s life. Deal with it. This is a lot of malarkey. I can’t believe it.

    1. As I’ve been thinking we need to realy watch the Xmas storm as this will be a strong one. Sunday I believe is getting weaker and already was weak to begin with. Fork time for this one oldsalty?

    2. Deal with it is right OS. Pop culture has done exponentially more harm than anything and continues to and they’re celebrated wildly more than Tom Brady.

    2. Here’s an article about last year’s event, but it should pertain to what
      is about to happen.

      http://www.climatecentral.org/news/stratospheric-phenomenon-is-bringing-frigid-cold-to-us-15479

      An Excerpt from it:

      As the polar stratosphere warms, high pressure builds over the Arctic, causing the polar jet stream to weaken. At the same time, the midlatitude jet stream strengthens, while also becoming wavier, with deeper troughs and ridges corresponding to more intense storms and high pressure areas. In fact, sudden stratospheric warming events even make so-called “blocked” weather patterns more likely to occur, which tilts the odds in favor of the development of winter storms in the U.S. and Europe.

      TK this would possibly indicate that January could be stormy and snowy?
      Your thoughts?

      1. Displacement of the PV is negative AO event. It means that cold air can come further south. It doesn’t NECESSARILY mean here (as in the northeastern US), however it is likely that we will be impacted.

        What is most certain in this event is at least periods of cold if not more sustained cold, depending on the set-up. It does NOT guarantee storminess/snow. There is fair chance that in the upcoming pattern, blocking becomes so strong that the storm track is displaced far to the south and storms are impacting the Southeast and Mid Atlantic more than the Northeast. I think that is what takes place in January before things relax and we turn milder and snowy in February.

  6. One thing I don’t like about last year’s article is that they label it an “unusual event”. That is completely inaccurate. I still do not understand why every atmospheric event which results in a pattern change or a storm is somehow “major” or “unusual”.

    SSW events take place in 40 to 60 percent of Winters. That is not unusual. And how can they say they have been taking place with increasing frequency in the last decade? Yes perhaps there have been more episodes than the previous decade or 2, but just where are we measuring these decades from? It’s very easy to make something look the way you want by adjusting your data point start and finish. Atop that, one decade is not nearly enough time to say that the “increase” is being caused by anything specific.

  7. Re: Brady
    This is funny from Peter Gammons

    Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 1h1 hour ago
    To appease those upset with Tom Brady’s competiitivess, the Pats and Jets will share tea and marmalade sandwiches on field after game

  9. Here is something from another article on Stratospheric warming

    Occasionally—about once every other year or so—the perturbation is so pronounced that the vortex breaks down completely. Scientists call these “sudden stratospheric warming” events, when a continent-sized chunk of rapidly sinking air (usually over Eurasia) quickly heats up and disrupts the polar circulation, sometimes completely disintegrating it. Statistically, that’s when the cold air floodgates can really open as the jet stream scrambles to contain the chaotic swirls of polar air that descend southward in the aftermath.

  10. OS, the Weather Channel showed that lakes cutter for Christmas as a huge storm over Japan right now with a 200 mph jet stream. Crazy how that will be here in a week!

  11. Tk who has the best shot at seeing snow on the ground come Xmas morning. And how much. Ok with the system a week away those questions may be tough cause the maps will have it, not have it and have it. I see the low 40s for next Tuesday I’m thinking that may be high.

    2. I figure 40 or so for a high Tuesday.

      As Harvey said last night regarding a white Christmas, we’re gonna need some luck.

      Sunday, as slim a shot as it is, is likely our best one.

      1. Ah Hah, finally got those no snow blues, eh?

        Looking pretty bleak.

        Funny with all of this, December is averaging just a hair
        above average. I suspect by month’s end it will be up
        to 1 to 1.5 Degrees above average. Maintaining these temps
        becomes more and more above average as we approach the end
        of the month.

  12. the euro is showing the storm to come in on the 22nd, by which time the high pressure to the north moved to the northeast to east of canada which will not keep the storm from bringing warmer air with it, as well as it being weaker.

        1. Less than a week for the 22nd. And YES sure.

          Re: Christmas
          Sure as well.

          Kiss a white Christmas good-bye.

            1. Today is Wednesday. 1st coming Monday.
              that’s 5 days.

              Christmas storm is 8 days out.
              Can that one change? Sure. Change to
              a snowy solution? Not likely.

              ALL Models are in agreement of a
              LAKES CUTTER in one form or another.
              WARM air FLOODS the East Coast.

              What will change will be which Lake
              will it pass over. 😀

  14. Looking for any slight hope for some snow.
    NWS out of Taunton for Sunday
    WILL NEED TO
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
    AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
    BENCHMARK.

  15. When the woodshill weather bloggers fall asleep this Xmass eve. Visions of sugar plums will not be dancing in their heads, but rather the winter of 2011-2012

  17. Everyone relax 🙂 🙂 🙂 Breathe in, breathe out.

    New England’s true winter months ……… the best chances for snow and cold …….. are January and February……… Long, long, long way to go, (with the exception of North Attleboro of course, where spring is right around the corner.) 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Its going to be ok ……

    4. True!! But a snowless dec makes for a short winter, not saying we won’t get snow, but before we know it its january and the sun angle is coming back, it’s crazy to say but true, the main reason why is the sun angle, it makes all the difference especially after mid Feb, in the meantime I’m waiting for snow, if it ever comes, maybe jan? 🙂 good day everyone

      1. I hear ya Charlie but for me a snowless winter is a long one unless its a very mild winter. To me sunny bitter cold days just make the winter seem way too long. Snowstorms do a nice job of breaking the winter up (for me anyway) and the tracking of such storms are something to look forward to.

        1. A further explanation of my feelings on long winters. I’d rather have a cloudy winter day (if it’s bitter cold) as then it seems to me that winter has at least cast a blanket over things and it just makes the cold more tolerable.

  18. I am wondering if that storm Christmas Eve which will unfortunatley will likely be a rainorama will be the pattern changer allowing for a return of colder weather. Sometimes you get a big storm that changes the pattern.

    1. Nah, the pattern change was in the works, storm or no.

      Perhaps it will enhance it? Let’s see how strong it gets.

  19. Think about it, the blog the last couple years was going crazy with storm after storm, chances for snow every week, lots of watchers, and it has all started earlier than this year. It all evens out, I heard cnn say no snow in the east till after the new year, whether u like snow or not,, that’s late!!!! Good day 🙂

  20. I don’t like snow and could do without it…BUT I don’t understand all the negativity around here. Winter hasn’t even started yet…it’s still Fall! Plenty of snow to come and I personally prefer it after the holidays due to travel, shopping, get togethers, etc. I could be wrong but I seem to remember everyone writing off winter a few years ago then we got a blizzard in February (2012?).

  22. I always say lets see where we are in early February before making a judgement on the winter. You get 2-3 storms of 10 plus inches then all of sudden the winter is not a dud.

    1. I agree jj but it’s different bc the sun angle, you guys can call me crazy and a lot of you do but snow in mid feb is different than snow now, it tends to melt much faster and when the suns out and at the same declination as mid Oct it reminds me of spring, and makes a big difference 🙂

  23. I would say by late February early March if you get snow it doesn’t stick around like it would December January until late February. With that said winter is not over by then and you could still have a major snow storm. To me if we get past March 15th the chances of a major snow storm is low but not zero.

  25. I love snow (as a teacher for snowdays, and plow guy for extra money) but i would be happy with below freezing weather… My 3 and 5 year olds want their ice rink!! lol if i dont have to shovel off another 40×60 area of snow im a happy man!

  26. Occluded front passed me in Reading MA at 11:50AM with a burst of moderate drizzle but some blue sky and a wind shift to NW marked by a visible change in direction of low cloud motion. THAT was cool.

  27. Mark Rosenthal ‏@weatherblast 22m22 minutes ago
    By next Wednesday Dec 24th…Rain and a southeast gale could take temps over 60 in Boston. Looks like a brown Christmas. 😥 😥 😥

  31. I checked out the stats for Boston winters and December snowfall and unfortunately there is a correlation. Bottom line is if we don’t get at least a few inches for the month, it is unlikely Logan will see even “normal” snowfall this winter let alone above. Evidently Mother Nature doesn’t play “catch-up” if it snows very little in December.

    Avg. annual snowfall = 43.8″
    Avg. snowfall for December = 9.0″
    December total to date = 0.3″ 🙁

  32. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 9m9 minutes ago
    2-weeks after the Cleveland Superbomb of 1978 #Superbomb –>
    “Great New England Blizzard of 1978”
    0 replies 1 retweet 3 favorites
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite3
    More
    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago
    Who will be the first person to connect this GFS 12z forecast low pressure system to the “Cleveland Superbomb”?

  35. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19m19 minutes ago
    Such a powerful land cyclone part of major pattern reconfiguration. Winter Arctic blast will follow (like clockwork)

    1. I can see that causing cold to come into the western and central part of the country, but it will take a while to come east, and even then i can see it moderating so much by the time it gets here that it will lessen the impact and we will go back to repeating our current pattern.

  37. The EURO’s trend on the Christmas Eve storm is concerning.

    Though certainly not snow, that would be a huge travel impact ….

    Snow, wind impacts …… and I’d think power outages for certain.

    If this verifies, going to be some power outages on Christmas Day somewhere along this storm’s path.

  40. This is a grinch storm for us. To the north and west of the storm center a good dumping of snow but it does not look to be in the cards for us unless that low could shift to the east and develop off the coast. I don’t think that is a likely scenario.

  41. Today there is a good lesson in why meteorology is the type of science it is, and model meteorology is even more “adventurous” for lack of a better term. The parts for upcoming events are better and better sampled with each day’s model runs, so naturally there is going to be change. One of the things I am starting to infer from the most recent and what I consider reliable “guidance” (please remember what that term means), is that the cold pattern may be even further delayed in reaching the East as it almost looks like it wants to visit the West first.

    The Christmas storm threat may end up SO far west that we even get cheated on rain that would fall from it. Let’s see if that trend continues.

    3. Yeah, as in Next Year. 😆 😆 😆

      Sounding more and more like 2011-2012 where the cold was coming and coming and coming UNTIL it was SPRING!!!

      Seems to me there was a Stratospheric warming that year then portending cold that NEVER materialized. Hope it doesn’t happen again.

    4. Your last sentence, is exactly what I am starting to think as well, as far as the Christmas storm.

      Also today’s 12z of the GFS was run with normal parameters. It has been over / hyper sampling for the last 14 days.

  42. On the other side of what I posted above regarding December snowfall and the upcoming winter, normal to above normal snowfall in December almost always results in above normal snowfall for the winter, HOWEVER there have been some exceptions so it is not an absolute guarantee but it has occured more often than not.

    The month of December pretty much sets the tone for the upcoming winter in terms of snowfall amounts at least…not sure about temps though.

    1. no it does not… forget if it was the year before last but one year recently we had one of the snowiest periods from january through early march. forget what year it was.

  44. Tweet from Dave Epstein

    @growingwisdom: There are plenty of blockbuster memorable winters which never really get started till after the new year, so don’t become complacent yet.

    1. You read my mind. I was thinking of posting this. 😀

      I keep thinking Winter of 2011-2013. Please say it ain’t so!

        1. Hmmm….Dave Epstein has a point to some extent but based on the stats for Boston (Logan) that I observed, don’t expect a 50-60″+ winter or anything like that…more like a 25-40″ (up to maybe just shy of normal). Of course I will take ANY double digit amounts at this point.

  45. According to Pete:

    1. NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR SNE! 🙁
    2. CHRISTMAS EVE TEMPS = 50+
    3. CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPS = 60 (UGH!)
    4. COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES THE FOLLOWING WEEK??

  46. Looks like Christmas is going to be best spent on the beach this year 😉

    If we can keep the rain away that is.

  47. According to Harvey:

    1. Sunday’s storm well OTS…flurries from the ocean at most
    2. Rain/wind Christmas Eve

  50. Everyone forgot Toms breathing lesson. I can guarantee that as you enjoy Christmas with your families the last thing that will spoil it is lack of snow or temperatures. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️⛄️⛄️

  52. Move that things 3oo miles east and we can talk. I don’t want rain on Christmas its miserable. I rather have cold and dry or a little snow but rain no good.

  53. Pete saying all computer guidance agrees no chance at all for Xmas snow. How can one be so confident a week away. I’m not buying it sorry not 7 days out. It can change. We are talking a week and all mets sticking a fork in it. Tk please explain. Is it to early for this assumption ? A week out.

      1. Yes I just saw Harvey that’s why I said all mets. I’m glad cause I don’t havto worry about be away from my family. I’m just saying a week is along time to be so certain as things can change.

  54. It is what it is. Let’s just make the best of the holidays and hope for an active weather start to 2015. Although…I still can’t believe it is almost 2015. 🙂

  55. The GFS was initially all over the place too about the Sunday threat. It nailed nothing yet because the event is still FOUR days away.

      1. Colder = colder than it has been. Tk I would like you to charm in on Xmas eve storm please. I still think 40s for next is generous .

    1. John, I was reading your posts above regarding chances for change.

      Sure, there’s always opportunity for change (different outcomes).

      But the important part is ….. whats it changing FROM ?

      And there in lies the problem. Its not like cold air will be nearby and some change will offer a colder scenario.

      Cold is way, way, way, way ….. away from New England. Perhaps thats why this strong storm is trending so far west from us, its forming in an area closer to a contrast between real cold and warmth.

      So, I’m probably not saying it simply enough, but the change needed to offer other possibilities would have to be so massive, as not to be realistic. And then of course, if you change where the cold air is, then probably the jet stream is configured differently, then you probably dont develop the storm currently shown for Christmas Eve and so on ……. 🙂 🙂

  59. If the Sunday’s system turns into anything, I’ll eat a plate full of reindeer droppings
    on TK’s front porch!

    2. I’ll make the gravy if I’m invited ….only having read everything and based on that and no knowledge I have…I think you are safe

  61. If the EURO Christmas Eve storm continues to show, as a very strong storm to our west, I wonder if the projected pressure of this system is going to stabilize ….. because I think in each of the last few runs, (12z yesterday, 00z last night and 12z earlier today), the pressure of this system has been lower by several millibars on each successive run. How low will it go ?

  63. He must be smart to get on Jeopardy! I took the online test a few years ago to get on the show and it was quite difficult. I only got 8 out 50 questions correct.

  64. I have to chuckle tonight…observing the various types of media.

    So much overreaction to model forecasts of a system a week away. I don’t care if next week is Christmas. It’s STILL overreaction. Period.

    In the slightly closer-term, have to watch for coatings from snow showers in some locations in the next 12 hours as some colder air flows in.

    Also some risk of an ocean-effect mix/snow event on Sunday, even if low pressure is far to the SE.

  65. 00z euro had a major shift east but still not far enough but maybe it’s a trend ? We shall see, doubt it but you never know.

    1. For Wednesday realy . Wow it’s amazing how things can change on a storm day to day ya think. I’m just sticking with don’t call a storm a week away right tk.

  66. GFS and CMC all inside, this is pretty much a done deal. Lmi I don’t see anything after xmas through the New Year.

    2. Just feels like it’s not going to change until it does-whenever that is. (sounds stupid but you know what I mean)

    1. I don’t see much colder after Christmas, granted it cools down but I don’t see anything artic, on any models 🙂

  71. I’m getting sick. This is brutal.

    I see ALL of the models have backed off on the mega bomb. No more 958 mb. systems, although still powerful at 972mb.

    I still see a coastal ahead of the big boy. Even that is too warm. It’s just too WARM!

    Even this morning with a parting system on Dec 18th, still NOT cold enough for snow in the City. Sure there were a few flakes mixed in, but it was raining.

    And to top it all off the Euro shows a STRONG SOUTHEAST RIDGE on day 10, 12/28.
    That ain’t gonna get the cold in here. 😥

    You know happens with that? ANOTHER CUTTER!!

  72. re: the 21st

    The global models show no precip, but the mesoscale models do show some.
    No big deal, but it last most of the day. 18Z NAM shows it. Waiting on 12Z

    This would NOT count for consumption of reindeer droppings. 😀

    2. You continue to make me laugh, OS!! Out of curiosity, where do you plan to find the reindeer droppings should they be needed?

      1. I think I could find a sufficient supply on my roof Christmas morning. I’m knee deep in shit so often that Santa’s Reindeer would consider my roof a suitable “dumping” ground.

  74. I’m not holding out much hope for a return to winter the coming weeks. We’re in a pattern that is locked in. Lots of rain, and lots of blah days, with a couple of seasonal days thrown in. Overall, this month will be quite mild when all is said and done, with 10-15 frost-free nights and no nights below 20F.

    Furthermore, I am highly skeptical of a return to “cold” air following the really mild air that will invade our parts around Christmas Eve. Cooler, yes, but mostly seasonal if not a tad above normal. This winter is shaping up to be similar to 2011-2012. It can change. But, as I’ve said before on this blog for the last month or so, I don’t see a cold, snowy winter ahead. I may need to adjust my already low seasonal snow total prediction given back in October down to below 15 inches.

    1. Pretty pessimistic assessment.

      I have to say I am worried, however, NOT giving up at this point.
      It’s not even officially Winter yet. To be sure, it’s usually colder by now.

      There Were signs of a return to colder air. Let’s see IF it materializes.

      1. I’d more more optimistic if I saw really cold air building up over Canada, with a nice snow cover to refrigerate things. I don’t. Also, note the lack of snow cover to our west. It’s virtually all gone. I really do think places like Minneapolis and Green Bay will have had a much colder November than December.

        I do see some cold air in the far, far northeast of Canada, but quite frankly that’s not usually where our cold air comes from.

        Imagine if the sun angle were not mid winter, but, say, March or April. We’d be basking in real warmth right now.

        1. Can’t ague that. It’s been pretty toasty save for a couple of cold days.

          It’s December 18th and I’ve worn a Winter Coat exactly 2 days. That is all. I’m still using my Spring/Fall weight Jacket with only a sweatshirt or sweater on the weekends.

          I went out one Sunday AM to run all sorts of errands
          with NO coat at all. just wasn’t necessary, that’s how mild it has been.

          Look at the Euro 850MB temperature anomalies
          for 12/28. BRUUUUUUUUTAL!!

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2014121800&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=232

          Sure there is some colder air to the West. How much
          does that get modified moving Eastward?

          Time will tell, but I’m NOT liking it so far.

  75. I haven’t looked in a few days but I suspect the shift away from imminent cold in model forecasts is a result of the MJO not behaving as was expected.

    1. Does anything in weather behave as expected? Certainly it misbehaves enough of the time to cause consternation!

      1. Sometimes more than others. 🙂

        But I have noticed MJO is probably the most mysterious-behaving index and also hardest to forecast.

  76. I respectfully disagree Joshua. You will see the cold come before you know it. Things change rapidly and we haven’t even started winter yet. Dec so far is near average.

  80. Most of us said slightly above sverage temps for Dec and low snowfall. Forecast has so far gone exactly as I anticipated. I just think its way too early to be making statements about the lack of cold and snow bc this pattern is what we thought would happen.

    1. It has gone exactly as you said, Hadi. You are right many said above avg temps. Even I did. But I had avg snow so we have a bit to go for that to happen.

    2. Hadi’s right on the temps. So far Boston, Providence and Hartford are averaging around 1.2 to 1.4 above normal. Not much in way of crazy swings either way.

      1. You as well Tom stellar forcasting. Now we just wait for some real cold to come in. I still think next week is colder than being advertised

  81. As far as a white Christmas, we have a mound (ok anthill) of snow that doesn’t want to melt at the end of our driveway. It is about 3 feet wide by 2.5 feet high at its highest. I guess that could qualify as white 😉

    1. There ya go . Yes I myself guessed a couple storms before Xmas . Hey I got one snow call a couple weeks ago, lol.

  82. I heard a weather anchor say today while no white Christmas, a big pattern change IS coming for New Years and then the news anchor said “white new years then?” weather anchor said YES.

    It is those definitive statements (is, yes, etc) about weather 7-14 days that are just so frustrating. Maybe it is just me?

    I do believe we have to see what sort of sensible weather evolves post Christmas Eve storm before we start making assumptions and definitions about what the weather will be late December into January.

    1. Ch 7 is also advertising a big shakeup in the weather dept after the Xmas storm saying it is strong enough to change the pattern. I believe it was yesterday I saw it. However I do not think they were calling for snow to there defense.

    2. And that’s assuming the “Christmas Eve” storm actually occurs ON Christmas Eve. 🙂

      And it’s not just you. It’s insanely frustrating to hear the statements coming over the media.

      Also they are saying the “Christmas Eve Storm” is strong enough to change the pattern. Pretty bold statement since 1) the storm hasn’t formed yet so we cannot make a factual remark on its intensity, and 2) it would be a result OF the pattern, not drive a major pattern change.

  84. I don’t even remember what I forecast for December and I’m too lazy to go back and look right now. 😛

    Actually I’m going out for errands with Mom and friends. 🙂

  85. Looked over the 12Z runs. Please excuse me while I Puke….
    Ahhh that feels a little better.

    Now for the runs.

    I see mass confusion over How to handle the energy with the “Christmas Eve” storm.
    I see cutters, redevelopments etc. Euro has the strongest with 966 mb in Southern
    Quebec/Ontario, somewhere near those borders.

    THEN I see another system 2+ days later, not as strong Cutting through the
    LAKES yet again. How many of these suckers will we have to endure before it
    turns colder IF it turns colder???????

    Ok, then take a look at this Northern Hemisphere 2M temperature anomaly chart
    for 12Z january 3, 2015. I know it’s the GFS, but please tell me WHERE the predicted COLD AIR is coming from. Although it’s briefly colder, sure looks to WARM up again!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2014121812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=232

    2. That is quite a bit below normal.

      I have noticed that the Sudbury River is really high and that is a great thing. Good news in CA too with the snow in the mountains for a slow melt. Not so good for mud slides in other areas!

  87. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 13m13 minutes ago
    I’d favor a parent low heading toward Great Lakes, but transferring energy toward coast (still mainly rain for southern New England)

  88. Its a rainorama. Will all be dreaming of a White Christmas this year.
    Hopefully when the calendar turns to January there will be more opportunities for snow. I know I will be rooting for the Almanac be right next month as a snowlover.

  89. OS, I’m not as good as you are at interpreting the models, but from what I see and have heard from several no-hype weather people is that there isn’t any sustained cold to be had. Just isn’t there. Very different from last year, obviously. I’ve been concerned for quite some time that this winter will be a dud. Can we say it will be? No. Not on December 18th. But, if what I am seeing verifies we’re in for a lot of rain, many lakes cutters, a few brief cold snaps, and lots of disappointment for winter lovers like myself. I may be praying for spring at a certain point, as I cannot stand a dud winter. And, I really hate rain, especially cold rain.

    1. Joshua, I don’t usually agree with you 100%, it’s usually to varying degrees.
      But I have to say, I’m NOT liking what I see so far. Still a bit early, but
      the COLD seems to be getting delayed and delayed again.

      I’m not totally in your camp, as I still hold out some hope, but I must say
      I’m getting more pessimistic as each day passes.

      I’ll keep watching. 😀

  91. Updating the blog. And not going to follow the guidance all that closely because it’s going to readjust everything again in the next 2 days…

        1. As TK says points out above, its probably not smart venturing much beyond 2 days in this particular instance.

          With that said, I think we’re waiting for more guidance on the intensity of an inside runner (a storm going to our west) and whether its close enough to give us a lot of rain or a period of showers on a cold front.

          I dont think a cold scenario is possible.

  92. Blog updated! Don’t bother trying to over-analyze next week. The truth is, nobody really knows how it’s going to play out yet. What I wrote there is a best very early guess. 🙂

  93. Only need to look to this past summer to find a little inspiration for the long winter still at hand.

    Of course, the past summer featured a majority of average or slightly below average temps and yet ……

    I believe Logan ended up having 8 (90F +) days. A good 5 or 6 of those came in late August or early September.

    So, to me, it could still end up snowing 100 inches. Early to mid April is a long ways away. I read absolutely nothing into snow prospects, with what we have seen in December.

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