Last 5 Of ’14 / First 2 Of ’15

5:18PM

We’re in the stretch between Christmas and New Year’s now, and the originally advertised pattern change to cold never quite took place, for reasons talked about previously. But what is really coming up? Quiet weather for now as we head down the home stretch of 2014 and into the opening 2 days of 2015.

First, high pressure to the south of the region will provide a dry and mild Saturday, then a cold front will pass through southeastern New England on Sunday accompanied by cloudiness and a few rain showers as the air will still be mild. A wave forming on the front as it settles to the south will stay south of the region Monday but may throw some additional cloudiness across the sky especially in southern locations. Otherwise, the trend for the exit of 2014 and arrival of 2015 will be to colder and dry weather as a sprawling high pressure area dominates, originating in Canada which has gradually turned colder in the last week or so. The upper pattern will still not support a genuine plunge into Arctic cold, nor will it support any storminess reaching this area.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland valleys, 30-35 elsewhere. Wind light W to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs around 50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
WEDNESDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

140 thoughts on “Last 5 Of ’14 / First 2 Of ’15”

  1. Thanks TK! Is it already safe to say that Logan will NOT have 3 consecutive winters with above normal snowfall? πŸ™

        1. The average snowfall according to the records for December is 9 inches. Since we know there have been many above that, it seems to stand to reason that zero is well within average range.

    1. Not even close. It’s December 26. We’re less than 1 month into Meteorological Winter and 5 days into official Winter. And the snow season in Boston can go well into April, REGARDLESS of the pattern early in the Winter.

      The only time we can safely say that will be about April 20 if they are still double-digits away from normal.

        1. Most, yes. And it’s a safe bet that will be the case this Spring too. Just sometimes……it doesn’t work out like that.

    1. Unless your plans included back yard or local school yard sledding. πŸ˜‰

      Actually my son and I went sledding Thanksgiving Weekend and it was awesome. πŸ™‚

      1. Just relaxing and not clock watching. I was out in the yard today raking and just making it safe for the puppy and had no jacket on it was awesome.

  2. Yesterday Eric mentioned on air that lillies are already starting to come up. I can’t believe that there are already signs of spring just a few days into winter…UGH!

    I will say that I have seen some awfully green lawns around my neighborhood.

      1. Thanks TK. I didn’t know that. I always assumed that flowers remained dormant during the winter months regardless of temps until at least late February/early March.

  3. In the 1968-1969 Winter, which is one of the analogs for this Winter, Boston had 6.4 inches of snow THROUGH JANUARY.

    They ended up almost 10 inches ABOVE NORMAL for the Winter when it was over. Regardless of your outlook on snow (love it, hate it, neutral), as a forecaster you never ever EVER EVER EVER … EVER! draw a conclusion about the Winter snowfall before the end of Astronomical Winter. Things can turn instantly.

    1. Once February 1st begins the spring talk begins, it’s like clockwork, all of a sudden your driving home after work at 5:00 in the daylight πŸ™‚

      1. Oh there is no doubt that by then, daylight-wise, there is such a big difference. But you know statistically that a whole lot of snow can fall in the back-half of Winter. Over 40 inches at Boston in February 1969. And there are many other February/March/April 25+ combos.

        1. And a lot more in the suburbs. Suburbs had two (2) 2 foot snow storms in the same month that year. AWESOME!!!!

        2. 41.3″ to be exact! I vaguely remember getting consecutive snow days that February 1969 in addition to the regular vacation. I was in 3rd grade at the time.

          1. I was at Katy Gibbs. But I lived at home and was In charge of calling to see if we had class. It was unofficial but I tended to be able to get them to give up the info before it was supposed to go public

  4. I just don’t think we can be this lucky all winter. You guys know my season is not winter so I’m loving this but try not to announce that much out of respect for winter lovers. I just know things will turn and winter will get going. But really it’s just about a week in. Tk may be right on thinking February will be the snow producer , time will tell. Enjoy the night all heading out for a few hours.

  5. It is one thing to remember the 1968-1969 Winter, but it is another to repeat it for the 2014-2015 Winter. πŸ˜‰

    I would say what we need is for the 2 jet streams to MERGE when cold air is in place. So far the streams only merge when mild/warm air is in place and bring rain, even in NNE.

  6. I’m At it again, sorry. I Since we don’t have snow, I find this fascinating.

    https://desertsirena.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/img_1840.jpg

    http://webspace.webring.com/people/ps/southernarizona3/CHRISTMAS_DAY3.JPG

    http://southwestdesertlover.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/mount-lemmon-arizona.jpg

    https://media.azpm.org/master/image/2012/1/12/spot/011212_Mt._Lemmon_Winter_617_347.jpg

    Mount Lemmon Ski Valley is a recreational ski area in the U.S. state of Arizona, and the southernmost ski destination in the continental United States. Mount Lemmon Ski Valley is located on the slopes of Mount Lemmon in the Santa Catalina Mountains just north of Tucson, Arizona. It is part of the Coronado National Forest, located near the mountaintop village of Summerhaven. The summit is 9,157 feet (2,791 m) above sea level, and receives approximately 180 inches (4.6 m) of snow annually.

  7. Not weather related but I’m so proud of our city. People gathering in south boston now in support of police. And amazingly the media is covering it!

  8. The year we had the blizzard of 78 the December before that was a similar setup warm and very little if any snow so hang tight.

  9. I saw above Logan has had 2.9″ of snow to date. When did that fall??? Feels like it was a loooong time ago.

      1. What is interesting is that 2.6″ was +1.3″ ABOVE NORMAL! At the time, it appeared that we were actually off to a good start for snowfall. πŸ˜€

  10. The little mound of snow at the end of our driveway is finally gone after weeks of fighting to stay with us until Christmas !! It lasted until yesterday πŸ™‚

  11. I can’t believe where are records are kept for inland CT we have 5.8 inches of snow with 5.1 of that coming the day before Thanksgiving. Its hard to believe the way the this month has gone that 0.7 inches of snow fell.

  12. A dagger this early in the season? Tweet from Brett Anderson

    @BrettAWX: A majority of signals that I am looking at DO NOT support widespread, sustained cold across much of North America over the next few weeks.

    1. That’s what it has been looking like.
      Btw barry stuck his neck out and annouced to
      His viewers thst boston would still get 55-60 inches of
      Snow this winter. Good luck

  13. can the latest gfs par and canadian be correct πŸ˜€ its at least somethin πŸ™‚
    positive me is hoping lol

    1. The GFS upgrade should just be abandoned. It doesn’t get anything right. All you’ll get from it is false hope. And lately the Canadian is not performing in a stellar fashion.

  14. I’ve gotten 2 emails from customers about if they should mow, they said it looks like it has grown a little since the last mowing in Nov, I said yeah go ahead and mow if you feel it needs to be mowed. There’s a 1st for everything lol πŸ™‚ good day

  15. Today’s [rather simple] AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    An anemometer is used to measure what?
    A. Temperature
    B. Wind speed
    C. Rainfall
    D. Pressure

    Answer later today. (There have been complaints emailed to AccuWeather lately that the Trvia Quizzes have been too difficult!??)

  16. Its dec 27 just before 8 am I am standing in the lot
    Of my car mechanic with a light jacket and comfortable.
    Amazing.

    1. My wife loves to run outside, she’s training for the Providence Marathon, she just got in and said she would love for it to be like this every morning this winter. I say snow comes in a couple weeks. Enjoy the day os πŸ™‚

      1. Its still in the upper 20s in most spots, colder than its been in days complements of a clear sky (something we havent seen in a while too)

    1. December 26 through February 2 was the nonstop stretch when Winter was basically compacted into 6 weeks. I’ll never forget how high the snow banks got. About as high as I had seen since 1978.

      1. I seem to recall that the snow was to the top of our three foot stone wall in back yard. But I also remember it being that high at some point in the late 80s or 90s. I was talking to my MIL on phone and casually mentioned her son had just fallen off roof……was not a far drop and into lots of snow

    2. and i remember the dar 2011 2012 winter season my senior year of high school, that is what it looks to me right now but being optimistic that it changes

  17. Taking my daily walk about 2 PM today when I think it will be over 50.

    Still sticking with no significant snow til Jan 15th and after.

  18. Just got back from a drive through Princeton. No snow on Wachusett except for the trails. Absolutely beautiful day. Boston skyline visible from the center of town today.

  19. Tim kelly reports possible blizzard in las vegas
    For new years. Daughter and sil will be there
    Flying out 10:30 pm. I warned them christmas day.
    Hope timing is off so they are ok. For work they cannot
    Be held over.

    Tk will they be ok or should they cancel?

    Many thanks

  20. I must say I don’t like sunny days like today. It’s not seasonal, and feels abnormal, especially given how long this mild stretch has been. I’m glad the sun is out, but it should be in the mid to upper 30s and sunny, not upper 40s and low 50s. I believe Boston’s been above freezing for over one week. That’s unusual in December. The number of frost-free nights is 16 by my count. That’s mild, folks. Minneapolis has had 9 frost-free nights this month.

    I’m definitely ready to stick a fork in this winter. I’m probably way too premature, but there’s nothing I see that suggests anything more than a few sporadic bursts of cold. What we’re getting this upcoming week is not cold, folks. It’s approximately normal, and without any snow-cover, I think we’re going to see higher temperatures than the ones forecast. The bubble of cold air in Canada that will impact us next week is NOT particularly cold. If it was, I’d have more hope in this winter.

    1. The magnitude of next week’s cold in Canada has little implication for the remainder of Winter. It would be a mistake to think it does. There is such a long way to go. We sit here on December 27, LESS THAN A WEEK into Astronomical Winter. That’s like calling the Indy 500 over after about 15 laps. πŸ˜‰

    2. Joshua I love your posts and insight but I believe sticking a fork in winter
      Is abit to much considering we’re a week into winter. It will not stay like this the entire winter but calling it now is just plain sill with no disrespect to you at all

    1. We are loving it. About to go for a walk …..if I can get off the couch. Been cooking all morning so once I sit……

  21. If the winter turns out to be tame. We really should not be that surprised. The simple fact is, that it’s very rare to get 3 winters in a row with above avg snowfall.

  22. A sunny seasonable or mild day in December is not really unusual at all for this part of the country. I recall many. They are called Halcyon Days and have often occurred in clusters of a few days to as long as 2 weeks, and are most common during the first half of Winter in eastern North America. Today is a Halcyon Day.

    And it’s about 2 months early to throw in the towel on this Winter, in terms of the possibility of meaningful snow events. Over 40 years of observing weather and a quarter century forecasting it in this area has taught me that solid rule.

    1. And as I posted last night this was the kind of weather pattern that led up to the blizzard of 78 it was a mild December that’s what I was reading last night. That was the first winter in Marshfield for us.

  23. i have not seen a blue bird sky yet this season. I love those days when its pure blue ski with maybe a few clouds there and there but there is no white/grey haze

  24. Lol the news outlet on tv as I’m reading this is stating how it’s not typically this mild in late Dec, there’s definatley a battle going on out there, ya got some saying this is very normal to be in the mid 50’s on dec 27th and the other saying this isn’t normal for dec 27th. I believe TK but when is it going to end? Never it’s only going to get worse currently 52.4 degrees πŸ™‚

  25. I love TK’s Nascar analogy above, its perfect !!

    And there’s crazy things that happen in the last 20 laps that you never see coming either.

    Pats divisional playoff game would be during the weekend of Jan 10th – 11th. For laughs, thats within 16 days now, so, its at the end of the operational GFS run.

  26. Went for a walk with a summer weight long sleeve top and light sweat pants. It is glorious. Yes, I love love love snow but I like the unpredictability as much.

  27. I like the current weather.

    After all the cloudiness of the early to mid month, its been great having the sun.

    No complaints from me on the temps either.

    Put me down for a share of sub freezing days and snow to come in the next 12 weeks and thus a couple 50F days in late December are a beautiful thing.

  28. I notice there is an increasing amount of people that think that a day like this is not “normal” or is somehow “unusual”.

    These are the people that don’t actually pay attention and just pick something out to talk about without really knowing it.

    Who would like to do an assignment? Tom? Anyone? No pressure. Here it is:
    Pick any year with a full climate record at Boston, and there are many to choose from. Go through all 365 days (366 if you choose a leap year). Take note of the average low, average high, and average temperature for the day. Then count up how many of them are exactly on the climate normal for the date. Then let us know how many of the temperatures land within 3 degrees of the normal. Then finally let us know how many of the temperatures land outside 3 degrees of normal, either side. πŸ™‚

    1. YES!!!

      You are addressing one of my largest weather GRIPES.

      The difference between normal and average.

      Today is WELL above average, yet PERFECTLY NORMAL.

      What you are getting at there is Variance and Standard deviation.

      Let’s say for the argument that today’s average high is 38 Degrees and the standard deviation is 6 Degrees (I don’t know what it is, must be something like 5-7 degrees or thereabouts).

      That means that 68.2% of the time the high will fall between 32 and 44
      95.4% of the time the high will fall between 26 and 50
      99.7% of the time the high will fall between 20 and 56.

      For your reading pleasure

      http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/understanding-the-statistical-properties-of-the-no.html

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

  29. Answer to Today’s [rather simple] AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
    An anemometer is used to measure what?

    A. Temperature
    B. Wind speed
    C. Rainfall
    D. Pressure

    Answer, of course, is B.

  30. Odds will favor low pressure tracking down the St. Lawrence Valley or nearby to that on Saturday January 3. Pattern is going to stay locked in place at least through the first week of January…

    1. Of coures, get a few “colder” days then Warm it back up with a CUTTER.
      Why would it do anything else.
      NATURALLY!!!!

      1. This kind of pattern produces that set-up in a repeating fashion. I saw it several times in the 1990s.

    1. No, but it doesn’t mean it can’t happen. If we have a high of 0, that’s not “normal” either. But again, it’s just weather. If you have a persistent warm pattern, say like that of December 2001, you’re going to see anomalous numbers, like the 77 that Boston hit 2 times that month.

      How about the anomalous polar vortex in place the entire month of December 1989? Boston’s coldest December on record.

      Its just weather. THAT is normal.

        1. No. If anything, less frequently.

          Look back at historical weather maps. They are available for public view.

    1. Yep, the Euro weeklies have certainly been trending warmer. Way too early to throw in the towel on winter, but the odds of a big snow year are pretty slim. I’d be willing to bet we don’t see a widespread 4″+ snowfall through January 15 (a bet I could lose of course). But there’s still a solid two months of snow potential after that time. It’s just that if we have no snow by then it gets harder and harder to reach our averages in time for the end of the season.

  31. For simplicity, we’ll round Boston’s average snowfall for the season to 44 inches.

    Since 1890, or in the last nearly 125 years, only 21 times has the snowfall for the season been within 3 inches of normal. That’s only about 17% of Winters, or about 1 out of every 6.

    If this does not illustrate how “normal” it is to be “abnormal”, regarding both precipitation and temperatures, then nothing will, and those blind to it will never understand.

    1. This misunderstading is not helped by the on-air mets. Thay commonly say things like “Today’s high temperature will be 10 degrees above normal” and “This month’s rainfall is already more than we should get for the entire month”.

  32. TK, you’re correct in pointing to this month as being well within a `normal’ range. Please note, that range or variance in a place like Boston is quite large. As you rightly point out there have been quite a few times that it’s been in the 50s in December. I don’t remember many Decembers like this, but they do happen. What we can definitely say is that we are on the mild side of the range alluded to and have been for quite some time. I’m not alarmist about it. For example, I would never declare this the result of global warming. What I did say – and I apologize – is that I’m not a believer in this winter’s return, at least not in a sustained way. I’m probably wrong in my belief. Yet, I do see parallels with 2011-2012, 1996-1997, and several other winters between then and now.

    I went north (central Vermont) to see remnants of November snow storms. I had had enough of snow-less Boston. If I don’t experience real winter weather in winter, I become a crank. Vermont had quite a bit of snow in November and early December. My sister’s abode sits about 1000 feet above sea level. Driveway is still icy, patches of snow on the grass, large mounds of snow from where it was plowed. Temps here have been very mild, too. Even here, long stretches with minimal or no frost. This said, it’s 32F right now. No wind. Cold front tomorrow may bring a stray shower or even snow shower before colder air works in.

    In 2012 I also hopped in my car a couple of weekends and headed north (White Mountains/Quebec City) and experienced some real winter during a winter that never happened in SNE.

    1. Out of curiosity, Joshua, is there a natural deep base coat in the areas of nh and vt you visited? Mac and I talked to his cousin who is at their place in Stowe yesterday but I forgot to ask

  33. If the area is still between 1-3 inches of snow for the winter season in a month, then I would be concerned, until then it’s vacation time. πŸ™‚

  34. Vicki, I’m sorry about the late reply. There’s still a base of now crunchy, compacted snow. I say that because if at 1000 feet there are a couple of inches remaining (with patchy spots without snow), there must be more at higher elevations Starting later today, there will be snow-making as the cold front pushes through. It’s pushing through right now, with rain and snow showers.

    1. Thanks Joshua. I agree that we are within the range now considered normal. Certainly, the record warmth of this century has bumped the numbers up. It was not normal in the mid 20th century to not have a consistent snow base for skiing. I do not like the term new normal, but wonder how much it applies as it is now normal to have to rely on manmade snow for skiing at this time of year.

  35. OS, TK: I enjoyed reading your statistical analysis of the terms “normal” and “average.” I teach and do research in economics and use these terms frequently. I have one issue with your analysis: I do think that it’s useful to let people know when there is a temperature anomaly. So, for instance, a day with temps in the 50s in late December is running 10-15 degrees above the average (and in lay person’s parlance – `normal’). When the historical average unemployment percentage is 5.5% and in 2010 we had unemployment of 8% it made perfect sense to say that this was an anomaly (which it was). Letting people know how a current percentage deviates from the norm or average is instructive. It gives people perspective. I believe historical perspective is extremely important. I think that the issues occur when mets or economists become alarmist and start connecting dots where there aren’t any to connect (or not yet). E.g, a mild December implies a continuation of a global warming trend.

    Back to current weather: This cold front that’s pulling through (with an associated Low) is a bit more moisture-laden than was forecast. This may not apply to SNE, but up in central Vermont there have been heavy showers, sleet, and some snow, too, with more to come this morning. My guess is that on the back side some of the hills and mountains will get a healthy coating of snow.

    1. Great comment Joshua. I am neither a mathematician or economist. However, you put into words what was trying to form in my mind as I read the comments re normal. To all of you…thank you for a timely and instructive discussion

  36. The only thing I am looking forward to today is watching the NFC East Champs Cowboys beat the Redskins today and go into the playoffs on a four game winning streak.
    As far as weather UGH for you want snow!!!

    1. Assuming Seattle wins, securing the 1 seed ……

      Who gets the 2 seed and a bye, if ….. Dallas wins …. but either Green Bay or Detroit also will be 12-4 by the end of today …….

  37. Dallas will get the 2 seed and the first round bye with win and if both Seattle and Green Bay lose. More than likely we will be the 3 seed.
    Currently we would play Arizona in the wild card game. I don’t want to go to Green Bay and Seattle so I will be a big Rams and Lions fan later today.

  38. Homework …….. during vacation ……. WHAT !!!! πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    Alright, well, maybe more time later to extend this analysis, but for now, here’s the findings for the first 27 days of December ………..

    December 2014 Logan temperature analysis :

    No Temperature Departure (0F) : 2 days

    Temp departure within 3F (3F below normal to 3F above normal) : 8 days

    Temp departure in excess of 3F from historical norm : 17 days

    ( Current overall monthly temp departure : +3.7F )

    1. Question and the answer may be in your analysis and I may be missing it. The analysis appears to be done in degrees. Does it take number of days into account and is there a way to tell if one or two days skewed the average or if in fact we have what I am seeing as the majority of the month out of historical range. Or perhaps I misunderstood the 17 days

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