The Week Ahead

11:06PM

This look at the coming week is not really any different than the blog posted earlier on Sunday, other than dropping this Sunday’s forecast and adding next Sunday’s forecast. High pressure and a chill will be the rule during the next 5 days as 2014 winds up and 2015 gets underway. By the first weekend of the New Year, expect a storm to pass north of the region with a milder rain event arriving on Saturday and departing by early Sunday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 15. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 35. Wind light NW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 30. High 50.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Early rain showers. Low 40. High 45.

152 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. JMA sorry to hear your sad news on the previous blog. My thoughts and prayers are with You and your family during this tough time.

  2. Thanks TK
    BORING weather this week. Late next weekend will see. Many days away and a lot of uncertainy.
    The only thing certain late next weekend I will be watching the Cowboys beat the Lions in the last wild card game of wild card weekend.

  3. Good morning,

    After all of the Doom and Gloom yesterday, DO I see a change in the system for 1/4?
    Looks like a colder solution all the way around. What’s up with that? Inf fact CMC
    wants to give us some decent snow. πŸ˜†

    re: Las Vegas
    Still conflicting data. GFS has totally and completely backed off ANY snow for
    Las Vegas New Year’s eve/day. CMC still has a couple of inches +. Euro has
    none on the wundermap, yet has cold temps and about .3 or .4 qpf??? So it looks
    like a few inches from that one. LV NWS still calling for SNOW on the strip
    New Year’s eve, but they are NOT expecting any kind of significant accumulation.

    The Flagstaff area of AZ looks to be in the bulls eye.

    Thoughts? Anyone?

    You should have heard my wife when I said that the GFS painted about 8 inches.
    She thinks I was forecasting that. She did NOT understand that I was simply mentioning the output of one model. She said IF I believed it I should call my daughter and tell her to cancel her trip. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    Based on what I know right now, I would NOT advise her to cancel.

    1. I do not envy anyone having to make decisions when it comes to weather. It seems more difficult with each passing storm (passing in our case seems to be the operative word). I thought it was this area that was most difficult to predict; but having watched your reports on Las Vegas, OS, I see we are not alone. I’m hoping for a fun and uneventful trip for your daughter and SIL.

  4. Meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT had stay tuned for Sunday Monday under the mix icon for those two days. When he puts stay tuned on the 8 day forecast things COULD get interesting.

    1. Yes, indeed, the solutions have changed considerably.

      I’m guessing, however, this thing ends up OTS while the atmosphere waits
      on the next trough which WILL take a system through the Great Lakes!! πŸ˜†

  5. Re: Next Event from Taunton NWS

    …A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE TROF WOULD APPEAR TO ALLOW THE NORTHERN STREAM TO ESTABLISH GREATER DOMINANCE AND CAUSE THE SW TROF TO SHEAR TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING SE OF NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD AND POSSIBLY SNOWY OR DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

    With of course the quicker ejection meaning a CUTTER. The models are now
    discounting the cutter with different variations of a more Easterly/Southerly track.
    Some still giving us rain, while some give us snow and it looks as though the Euro
    now wants to take it OTS to keep us DRY. GO FIGURE!!

    Lakes cutter to OTS and everything in between. What did Someone call this Hadi? TK? MODEL MAYHEM
    Put the solutions on the wall, blind fold yourself and throw a DART. Wherever it lands is your forecast. πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  6. This is going to be fun week watching what evolves with this system.
    I don’t see a major storm system for us but I think there will be some precipitation.

  7. Good luck OS and to your daughter/SIL in making a decision.

    Logan at +4.1F for December.

    I dont think either scenario regarding the cutoff low in the southwest is profitable towards snowfall locally.

    1. Sort of a Goldilocks situation. Ejection timing has to be just right as to prevent a Cutter, but at the same time not have an OTS system. What are the odds on that? NOT good I’m afraid. Possible? Sure. Likely? NO.

      1. Indeed on the timing ……..

        I am rather confused as to what to believe ….

        A few weeks ago, if I recall correctly, the EURO WAS spot on, the GFS was not doing well …..

        Now, I guess its the EURO that is suspect.

        I need a scorecard for what model is doing well at a given moment.

  8. Big turnaround from lake cutter. Is it an anomaly or is this a trend? I don’t care if this upcoming system slides underneath us as long as it’s not a lakes cutter. Similar to how OS feels I cannot stand cold weather while its dry only to be eroded by a lakes cutter and rain. It’s New England so anything is possible and weather can turn on a dime, that’s simply why I love living here.

    1. Agree.

      I can handle it passing South, but a Lakes Cutter?, that’s a horse of a different color.

      I don’t get it that some on Air Mets are talking about this upcoming “cold”
      as being the real deal as if Winter was here to stay? Am I missing something?
      Doesn’t look to last to me. And just how cold is this cold? Still LIGHT JACKET weather for me. We’ll see about the next 2 days. Here’s one person saying it will NOT be as cold as forecast by some.

      1. Compared to the daytime temps we’ve been having, high temps around and just below freezing will be a shock to many. Trust me, it will feel cold and wintery.

  9. Rex Ryan to me was not this great coach that some make him out to be. The first AFC Championship game he got them to was due to the fact the Colts sat their starters for the second half of the game. Had they not done that the Jets would have not made the playoffs that year. The second year they did earn it. The Jets never won an AFC East title in his tenure nor got the team to the Super Bowl.
    So in the six years he was Coach did he win anything. NO!!!

  10. If the Pats win the super bowl this year, is there any chance the teams with coaching vacancies take a run at Belichick? How would that even work with him also the GM, would he negotiate his own trade? Food for thought! Surprised it hast been talked about on sports radio.

    1. I dont think so and even if they did I believe he would stay put as I think him and Brady will ride off into the sun set together into retirement.

      1. Hmmm, well, i never thought Bill would retire once Brady did. He has too big of an ego to leave questions as to whether or not he can win without Brady. For that reason, I believe he coaches elsewhere at some point. Makes for a good debate anyways.

    2. i think he will retire as patriots coach but i believe he stays for a very very long time after brady to get another superbowl ring. There will probably be a few rebuilding years in between though as there will be some shifting, we will just have to be patient durring those times when the come

  11. There is 3 head coach positions available right now. Falcons, Jets, and 49ers. There has been talk Rex Ryan would go to Atlanta if that job opened. I don’t know how you could sell that to your fan base with a coach having a losing record the last few seasons.

  12. I’ve added normal to my list of words……..well, it isn’t really a list. Until now, the only other word was “potential”

    It seems every met uses normal. I did like JR’s comments this morning. He used the term seasonal with regard to the temps and that makes sense to me. Of course he also mentioned the jet stream progression and to just picture Vince Wilfork sitting on it and pushing it down.

    1. The use of “Normal” by the Mets is WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG and did I say WRONG!@&#*&!@*(#&*(!@&#*&!*(@#&(*!@&#

      The term they should be using is AVERAGE.

      On certain occasions the word Normal is appropriate as in
      today’s high will be 26 which is perfectly “Normal”, however it is
      11 Degrees below “Average”.

      THEY SHOULD KNOW BETTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I rant again, sorry I can’t help myself. It has been a BITTER COMPLAINT
      of mine since I was in High School!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. David reviewed 25 winters where Boston for December recorded 2 inches or less. All of those winters recorded around 30 inches of snow all of them. He said in regards to this winter the chance of just 15 is highly unlikely as well as 50 inches is highly unlikely. I put him on the same pedestal as Harvey as he is a very accurate forecaster.

    1. Oh I concur. He is very very good. It’s a shame he never landed a lead
      Met job with a TV station. So happy to see him on channel 4, even as a back up/fill in.

    1. Thank you.

      KEY POINT by Mr. BB

      Nevertheless, I believe there are overwhelming oceanic and atmospheric signals that favor several not necessarily consecutive snowy weeks ahead. Consequently, I am not backing off yet from the WBZ Weather Team snowfall forecast of 55-65β€³ in Boston through April.

  14. Old Salty and anyone else that would like to chime in on the topic – what’s your take on BB’s explanation regarding his prediction that there’s still hope for 55″+ of snow this winter?
    I have tons of respect for BB! He is an outstanding met, and one of my favorite current local media Meteorologists!!! WBZ has a great team of Meteorologists!

    1. Honestly, this is just my take and mostly a guess…

      I think that he “may” be stubbornly holding onto his/wbz forecast
      for the Winter. He doesn’t want to be wrong. He is “optimistically” looking
      at some of the teleconnections (MJO, QBO etc) and expecting (wishing for)
      a change to ensure the forecast verifies.

      I hope is correct, but I fear he has erred.

      That is my full of crap assessment. others?

      1. Right now I think that TK and JMA have a better handle on
        what’s going on with the atmosphere. We shall see.

        I hope BB and crew is correct.
        I’m sure not feeling it just yet and I’m sure Joshua isn’t either.

        Hadi is the most optimistic here. Hope he chimes in.

    2. again i think he is being influenced by someone that is higher up on tv to stay with what eric fisher wants

      1. That stinks! It shouldn’t be that way!!! Also, that what makes WHW so awesome – no influence from higher ups πŸ™‚

  15. Meanwhile, the GFS Parallel wants to take the system out South of us, providing us
    with “some” SNOW.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122912&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=85

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122912&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=85

    Right now, I don’t TRUST either one of them, however, for this particular run,
    I think the Parallel has a better handle. We shall see.

      1. Didn’t say it was cold – or even impressive – just that it has the feel of winter. I was out the past few days in light, summer weight tops. Today, I had a sweatshirt and got cold quite quickly —- and I am rarely cold.

        It was 36 here at the time. Now 38.

  16. The models will of course have trouble timing the upper low ejection out of the SW. This is very common.

  17. Good morning!! Well well well look what trying to show up between the 3rd-5th, maybe just maybe a little bit of snow?

    Sunset 4:21:17

  18. 12Z Euro wants to take the 1/4 system out South of us. Model Mayhem continues.
    We’ll have to wait to see what really will happen. πŸ˜€

    1. Sound familiar?

      Woods Hill Weather says:
      December 29, 2014 at 12:01 PM
      The models will of course have trouble timing the upper low ejection out of the SW. This is very common.

      Exhibit A: Euro, GFS and CMC

  19. Want to add insult to injury?

    How about this European Snow Map. (it’s in CM so be careful).

    Please note up to 6 Centimeters in Northern Africa, Algeria to be specific.
    6 CMs is about 2.4 inches.

    1. That was a very well-forecast snow event by NWS.

      Snow atop those peaks is more common than many people realize, however. πŸ™‚

      1. Absolutely. I see it just about every Winter. I was well aware of that. It was interesting during our lack of snow here.

        1. The years that the typical snow areas are in a snow drought are often the years that the snow shows up moreso in places that people don’t expect to see it: Hawaii, Rome Italy, etc. πŸ˜‰

  20. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 9s10 seconds ago
    Next potential storm: Sat night/Sun. Ensemble mean ECMWF vs GFS low location ~900 miles apart. Whole lot of possibilities on the table.

    1. The smart move here is to pay attention to which models have the Pacific ridge too far east. Those models are probably going to hold the upper low back too long because of the ridge tilting over and “burying” the upper low. In reality the ridge should be further west and leaving the flow more open, and even though the low will indeed cut off, it will be able to lift out a bit quicker. The only adjustment I’d make after looking at all available 12z guidance today for a system this far in advance is to slow it by about 12 hours. It’s a minor move this early in the game. Taking model error into account, and what I expect them to do wrong, I’d still favor a track a bit further NW than some guidance has, but as Eric says above, there are many possibilities in play here.

      1. Ok, in terms of sensible weather for us, then it sounds
        like the CMC solution in more in line with your thinking?
        It would allow for the low to eject, but not so much as to allow a cutter and certainly such that OTS is not in play. And at this range that could mean RAIN or SNOW or BOTH. No?

        Your thoughts.

        1. My current idea is that the CMC has the best track but is too strong with the low pressure area. I could see a primary heading into the Lakes and a secondary coming over southern New England but there would be too much mild air in place for a snow event. Still favor rain this far out, but there may be snow/mix at the front end and snow showers at the back end depending on the particulars. Again, so far in advance, this is just kind of a way-out-there theory at this point.

      1. He seems like a nice guy but just totaly hyped a couple of storms that were clearly not going to be snow storms. No disrespect just think he hypes his forcasts .

      2. That statement by Eric Fisher contains no hype whatsoever. It was a straight fact based on what we know at this point.

      3. I know what John is saying…not with Erics comment today but overall. He has gone with colder snowier options before and they haven’t panned out. In fact I commented that he hyped several blogs ago and OS you agreed with me then. Again I know this comment that sparked this is not hyped just commenting on where John is coming from.

        1. Either way TK it was the criticism of mets that was the impetus for this blog. Why would we do the same here. We all know that what Eric or Pete or Barry or any mets do is not totally in their control. It bothers me a tremendous amount when, knowing that, negative comments about any media mets appear here. I understand it may not be my place to say and am sure you are wondering when that has ever stopped me :). However, it seems to be happening more lately. I love the professionalism of WHW and criticizing others just doesn’t seem professional to me.

        2. Yea lets keep it going cause John thinks fisher has hyped previous forecasts cmon people realy. Yes I think fisher has in the past over hyped past situations that’s all I’m saying. End of story, finished move on. Thank you weather wiz for seeing what was clearly said not in today’s forcast in previous.

      4. John I will also say that is unfair and untrue. And this is an open and professional forum. I know several of the other mets read it. Comments like that as I have said before take from the forum.

            1. Yes you are. And if you read my posts it also said no disrespect at all to him. I’ve said many times that I liked him. Every met has a certain style. So let’s just move on PLEASE.

  21. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/23W/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04S/04S_floater.html

    After a few quiet weeks, both the northern and southern hemisphere tropics have become active.

    1st link, northern hemisphere, far western Pacific. Dont think it ever acheived hurricane/typhoon status, but its had a feisty circulation with a ton of convection.

    2nd link, definitely a typhoon. If the picture went further right, you would encounter western Australia. This thing is headed south into the no man’s land of the Indian Ocean.

  22. Imo there is no way BB is sticking with his numbers bc he is being pressured. He has been in the business for 30+ years so no way someone is telling him to say that.

    In regards to Eric he is not a hype master. He says what he believes and most of the time he is right. He just comes out and says it vs. being wishy washy.

    1. Recently, I have heard many here say they have never heard BB come out so,far ahead of time to make predictions. Why is he all of a sudden out of character ?

      Bottom line Hadi is what they do is what they do. If they were to criticize each other I would find it horribly unprofessional. I think of this blog as being above others in its professionalism.

  23. “The month (Dec) is going down at almost 4 degrees above normal. That’s UNHEARD OF!” … Since when?

    The media needs to quit that.

    1. I asked on the other blog. Does it break down to days above normal or just degrees? That would seem to me to make a difference. Perhaps I am wrong. Not many Decembers I can remember barely using heat.

      1. Vicki, it appears that 18 of the 28 days have been above normal at Logan.

        Prior to today, Logan just had 6 straight days of > 10F temp departures.

          1. Which probably implies that most of suburbia should be seeing lows somewhere in the upper teens.

            Really drives home how mild its been.

              1. Yes, I still think that too.

                Only need to look at the next 2 to 3 days.

                Sure, no snow, but struggling to get to 32F by day, with teens and low 20s by night is payback to me. πŸ™‚

  24. I guess I’m getting “old”er πŸ™‚

    I just dont tolerate the cold, the short daylight and the weak sun like I did when I was younger. Though 41F at Logan for a high temp, I was cold today.

    So ……. Already 8 days past the winter solstice, only a mere 81 to go til the vernal equinox.

    Yes, astronomically, northern hemisphere winter is the shortest season at 89 days, due to us being closest to the sun in early January.

    Somehow, New England’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and Hudson Bay seem to make it seem like winter lasts about 150 days. πŸ™‚ πŸ™

    1. I can tell I am getting older when I can tolerate the HHH ….. Either way I don’t think we are getting older….just wiser and more tolerant……ok so tolerant doesn’t always apply to me πŸ™‚

    2. Whoa. I just had a GREAT IDEA. If being Too close to the ocean is bothering you in winter, we could switch houses πŸ™‚ πŸ˜†

    3. Tom I have many years on you and I dont
      Mind the cold at all. I am mobile now still
      Dressed in my light weight coat. It is not cold.
      Colder than it has been lately. True. Cold. No

      1. Ah ha…..since I feel the same and am right around your age OS, I think we have the problem solved. Once Tom moves here for the winter (and us to his home by the ocean), Tom will be fine πŸ˜‰

    4. I was thinking the same thing today Tom – 81 days.

      On the pattern…… These things can take a long time to break. We’ll be talking about high sun angle, needs to snow at night, needs to come down hard enough…all of that by the time this pattern changes if at all this year. I predicted I think 10 or 15% below normal on snowfall. Thinking I’m still gonna be high. Low 30 number, high 20’s for Boston. Hope I’m wrong but it might take one sneaky blockbuster to get the totals up.

  25. regular gfs just went to what the gfs par was showing. canadian and JMA as well. the euro is the only one not really showing it.

  26. I agree tom, as many get older they don’t like snow and cold, a matter of fact, I read an article that was saying how New England especially the Boston to Providence corridor has less New England natives and will even be less going forward. A lot of transplants from other states and countries moving here usually from warmer climates hence its only going to get worse when it’s 30 degrees for a high in Feb and everyone or most r complaining for spring. I’ve been back for 10 yrs and I’m still just getting used to no leaves on the trees for 5 months out of the year. Have a good night everyone πŸ™‚

    1. That may be true but a bunch of them moved to VT. It’s amazing how many people I encountered that had relocated from this area to VT when I was up there. And my friend’s aunt lives up there and she keeps meeting people that have moved up there from this area…

  27. TK ….

    I think I remember OS posting something recently about a possible sudden stratospheric warming event and I also see Brett Anderson mentioned it in his blog today …..

    Have you been seeing/hearing anything about this ……. If so, anything to it ??

    Thanks.

    1. There are signs of such an event. But when they occur, pattern changes that are triggered by them usually occur 1 to 2 weeks later, and are not always a guarantee. But it’s one more ingredient in the mix for eventual breakdown of the current regime.

  28. Looking at the 12z model suite I don’t see a giant difference 5-6 days out in the GFS/GEFS /GGEM/GGEM ENS/UKMET. I know the GGEM shows some greater snowfall totals closer to Boston metro and that has some excited but its snow tool output doesn’t really make sense with its low placement, projected track, 850 and surface temps, so I would use caution with finite tools like that and look at larger picture it is projecting which I think is the right idea and has some reasonable and sensible support from the other above noted suite of output in conjunction of course with some applied meteorology.

    The 12z ECMWF seems to be creating too sharp of a positive tilt, too soon, in the initial genesis of this system. This allows for the southern stream to dominate and the system to eject well south of the region. The other models trend towards a more neutral trough forming in the southern US as energy dives south from Canada and ridging amplifies downstream. GFS/GGEM are showing too much convection forming in the south which is amping up the precip totals beyond what seems sensible at this point. Yes,a little bit of our friend convective feedback showing up underneath the modeled low. So what does this mean for sensible weather impacts? Slow the onset of precip in SNE down about 8-12 hours, maybe even a bit more. Push the track a little further north and west with any mix changing to rain, but not as much mix to rain as may be forecasted due to errors in model QPF output, in most of metro Boston and the other population centers of SNE.

    1. im sorry but right now i have to disagree with you, I honestly think the gfs is onto something. I know its been crappy but, its been consistant. euro not so much with this system

    2. Good pick-up on the convective feedback JMA. Often missed by meteorologists. I agree with your assessment.

  29. You can deff tell the difference just as you get outside of 495 and expecially when you get to my grandparents area and expecially when you get into vermont.

  30. Good morning. I have to admit, it’s actually colder than I expected. May have to
    wear the Winter coat today. 23 on the button right now. πŸ˜€ Still that is “about” average for this date here in JP.

    re: possible storm

    Haven’t looked over anything just yet, but IF there is a possibility of a Cutter, guess what?, we’ll get that Cutter. Lat night’s REG GFS gave us a good front end dumping
    of snow before going over to rain. We’ll see IF that is still there. Doubt it.

  31. Hmmm

    1st of all, the differences between the GFS and the GFS Parallel are laughable. Totally Pathetic. Are they dealing with the same initialized data? Who programmed this thing?

    Given that, the CMC is drinking the same Kool Aide. They both take a pretty strong system through the Lakes. 06Z NavGem also takes it through the Lakes.

    Regular GFS develops a Coastal “Just” S&E East of us, as mentioned by TK.
    Too little too late to keep snow in SNE, but Saves the ski areas up North.
    That run would give Boston “about” 3 inches of snow prior to changeover.

    Euro also gives Boston a couple of inches before changeover, but takes system right
    over us, sans coastal.

    Summing it up, meaningful snow for Boston seems unlikely.

    I may be crazy, but I’m liking the Regular GFS solution best at the moment.
    We shall see what the 12Z runs show.

    BTW, the reg GFS also shows SNOW possibilities for the 6th and the 13th.
    Will those pan out? Who knows. Probably not. We’ll know soon enough. πŸ˜€

  32. GFS for Sunday….

    -Not excited about front-end snow. Maybe an inch, no more for the interior if this pans out.
    -With the low developing as shown, low level cold would “wall off” any real warming at the surface. Cold rain, maybe even some freezing rain interior.

    I like the setup for the 13th but ain’t gonna happen.

  33. Wonder what happened with the 0z models last night. They all saw something for sure, no more crazy model mayhem. Just a plain old Lakes Cutter, all rain for us.

    1. That would be better sampling of the ingredients going into making up the system.

      Basic model meteorology. πŸ™‚

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