Back To Cold, Mostly Dry

299 Comments

8:48PM

SUMMARY…
A relatively mild Monday behind the wet weather system will be followed up by 2 dry and colder days Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves in from Canada. On Tuesday we’ll still have a gusty breeze as the center of the high will be to the southwest of New England while the low that moved by on Sunday continues to mature in eastern Canada. Lighter wind is expected Wednesday as high pressure moves more overhead. A weak low pressure area in the northern jet stream will drop from the Great Lakes to northern Mid Atlantic by late Wednesday then redevelop south of New England Thursday before heading out to sea. This system will be close enough to bring the threat of a light snowfall to the South Coast. In addition, an upper level disturbance and an onshore flow between the new low to the south and high pressure to the north will bring some light snow or snow showers to the remainder of southeastern New England during Thursday. High pressure takes over Friday for dry and cold weather. Confidence drops while trying to figure out what goes on from the weekend into early next week. A first guess is that a southern jet stream storm stays out to sea to the south over the weekend while a reinforcing cold front associated with low pressure in the northern jet stream crosses the region from west to east. Low pressure may approach from the southwest by Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10s inland, lower 20s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind light N to variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow South Coast, very light snow or flurries elsewhere. Low 15. High 33.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers night. Low 10. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

299 thoughts on “Back To Cold, Mostly Dry”

  4. Back To Cold, Mostly BORING 🙁

    I find it interesting that so far this winter the jet streams are able to link up when mild air arrives, but separate themselves when the arctic air arrives. I just don’t get it TK.

    1. We’ve seen this pattern many times in the past. The indices support it. This was the pattern described as the dominant one for the first half of Winter back in November during the chat about the Winter forecast.

  6. Same pattern through next week. Dry and cold overall, minor snow threats.

    VERY limited snow here Thursday.
    The weekend is a split, southern system way out to sea, northern system goes down the St. Lawrence Valley and drags a cold front through the region.

    The late Monday threat would be a northern stream system though there are already some signs this one gets pushed south.

  7. Was fumbling with the remote this morning trying to get to CNBC and accidentally paused on the TWC. And boy am I glad because I fortunately caught Al Roker saying the Northeast would be “bracing for snow”. I told my wife right away to go get bread and milk.

    1. GFS blows up a string of storms well offshore as you know so something is going to be out there just where is the question. Will the trend break…….

  12. IF the EURO is correct, then there wont be a ton of lead time (notification) on this late weekend event, only 6 days away.

    Its never the ones you see coming for 10 days that get you.

  13. You may now ignore the 00z Euro.
    One signal it is o.t.l. is the sudden parade of stronger lows one run after not having that at all. Other signal is that it sucks lately.

  14. Thanks tk 🙂

    There beginning there severe weather classes in the Midwest and south. I was a weather watcher for north Dallas and got many emails last night stating some of the seminars and severe weather meetings are beginning later this week and next week. It’s almost that time, March/April/May were always awesome stuff. Loved that excitement 🙂
    Enjoy your day!!

  15. If winter is taking an early exit in March as TK has eluded to in his winter outlook, and assuming Jan likely go out mostly snowless, the window for significant snow now becomes about a 4-6 week period.

    1. remember a few years ago when it was on and off colt with little snow through december then bam all of january there was alot of snow storm after snow storm for about 5 to 6 weeks. then it stopped… some people are saying the atmosphere looks similar to that of the year of 78 blizzard, do not know if that is true or not since i was far from being born 😛

  16. I read Dr. Cohen’s blog every time there’s a new entry. Since early Dec. the theme has been, “strongly positive AO and NAO” but will be trending toward negative. I think it’s time to give that one up Dr. Cohen.

    1. JR must have been viewing the ECMWF when he commented potential pattern change for weekend. I am paraphrasing so please do not take him to task for my putting words in his mouth. He was very clear that it simply needs to be watched only.

      1. Absolutely. Some of the Mets are Euro huggers, so we have
        to watch out for that. TK, on the other hand, is an equal opportunity model analyst. He scientifically shifts through
        all of the bullshit and uses his expert skills to figure out which
        model makes the most sense.

  18. I will say however, this cold and dry pattern was one we were in most of last winter and we still managed significant snows. It doesnt take much in this pattern to get some snow up here, all it takes is one little ripple or modification of that trough. Much more difficult with a warmer and wetter pattern.

    1. Oh True. But many times it’s prudent to go with the trend. That trend
      would be OTS.

      Now given that and the discussion above, including TKs outlook, I wanted to mention DT. He had a post yesterday (Before the 0Z run of the Euro), where
      he indicated that the Euro Ensemble was “trending” (there’s that word again)
      NW with this weekend’s storm. Then after the 12Z ensemble was trending
      NW, the 0Z operational run delivers.

      FWIW here is the 0Z Euro Ensemble surface chart

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015012000/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png

  19. From David Epstein:

    Where’s The Snow?
    We are quite a bit below average for snowfall as the past 6 weeks have provided little in the way of significant snow. A few thoughts: 1. It only takes one or two storms to get our seasonal totals back towards average. 2. After so little snow in December and most of January, it becomes much less likely for final snowfall totals to end as average or significantly above average. 3. We will see more storminess next week and the first half or longer of February. 4. The models continue to advertise a very cold period early in February across the northeast.

  21. Gil Simmons had on the 8 day watching closely Saturday night Sunday and when he says that he is not sold on the idea of it going out to sea just yet. As for Monday it had another with a question mark.

  22. Saturday night into Sunday probably a miss but at least something to watch
    NWS out of Upton, NY take
    FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS…GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE
    TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW THAT COULD AFFECT US SAT/SAT NIGHT. HAVE
    INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DURING THIS PERIOD
    ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A COMPLETE MISS REGARDING QPF. 00Z GEFS
    ENSEMBLE MEAN IS HOWEVER NORTH OF OF THE 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.
    CMC GLOBAL/ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN ARE ALL CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK…BUT STILL TRACK THE STORM SE OF IT. HAVE KEPT
    PRECIPITATION TYPE SIMPLE THIS FAR OUT

  23. I would rather have stuff to track instead of a BORING weather pattern. With that said I would like to see one of these watchers materalize and get us with a dumping of snow.

  24. I agree with TK on the Euro. I’m really starting to become frustrated with it. It has a constant bias to overdo these East Coast lows, among other problems. The UKMET is a better model right now I think. We’ll see what happens when the Euro gets that next upgrade.

    Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 12z runs trend closer; that’s the trend right now, and it may continue for at least another model cycle. I would still favor a miss though, I think we’ll see a trend back the other way start by tomorrow.

  26. A couple more ingredients and THEN we will open the door for 1 or more significant snow threats. Almost there. My worry is MJO in right phase (8) but too weak. We need it to strengthen and settle into phase 1 by the end of January. But it’s been nothing but a cranky toddler all winter so far. It clearly needs a nap.

  27. One thing to note regarding temps. I went for a milder Feb and I still believe when it is over we do end up a little milder than average but the first week may be a deep freeze week.

  28. Hmmm, interesting to be sure.

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 10m10 minutes ago
    haven’t seen 12z gfs,but looking at 06z it is clear the GFS is too far E with Sat storm.u will see it back West, i-95 threat for sure

  29. As I say all the time when you have low pressure system on the east coast it needs to be watched. Way too early to write this storm system off for the weekend.

  31. Unfortunately I think were going to see a lot more 90 degree days this summer and a lot more humidity than last summer.
    We got off easy last summer in regards to that. I don’t think that will be the case this summer. I hope I am wrong.

    1. Unfortunately, TK has hinted that there will be a lot of HHH this summer, but let’s get through this “boring” winter first. 😉

  34. I smell trend on the euro weather model and it has agreement with ensemble runs 😉
    euro 0z monday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png
    euro 12z monday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png (travels just outside the bench mark
    euro 0z tuesday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015012000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png
    Euro ens also agree with this current trends.

    the Gfs is also moving further north but has less of an agreement with its ens
    canadian
    gfs 18z monday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011918/gfs_z500_mslp_us_24.png
    00z gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012000/gfs_z500_mslp_us_22.png (but ens is further north but still outside bench mark)
    gfs ens for 00z gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012006/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_22.png
    o6z gfs still to far out but trends closer
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012006/gfs_z500_mslp_us_21.png and has general agreement with ens
    Canadian also to far out to give the area any precip but has also trended further north.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012000/gem_z500_mslp_us_21.png
    still waiting for the jma and i will put the 12z gfs as well when that comes up
    Point is i think there is a trend and there is at least something worth watching 🙂

  36. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 13s13 seconds ago
    I see the GFS is now playing the big storm game this weekend.

    1. Of course. It could still reverse, or worse yet, become an inside job. 😆

      BUT, at least it’s in the ball park for a significant East Coast event.

      Let’s see what the Euro and the CMC have to say.

  39. There are some big astronomical tides from today through to next Monday, due to a current new moon at perigee. Something to watch if a wind event is in the cards.

    Also, that’s not the coldest airmass winter has ever thrown at us for this coming weekend and the ocean is a still toasty for January 41F, so ….

    Hey, throw us a big storm this coming weekend when we can afford to lose power ! 🙂 🙂 But, sunshine and calm winds for Sunday, Feb 1st ….. PLEASE !!! 🙂 🙂

    1. Sunshine and calm winds in Arizona for the Pats…of course. A big snowstorm for us here on Feb. 1st in SNE would be a nice combo! 😀

      1. Hospital in lockdown and just issued a code black – no new patients being admitted to ED. John, glad you are not working as I thought of you right away. Shooting on 2nd floor of Shapiro building. Shooter contained and they say no further threat

        1. Just got an e-mail from a friend that works there and they are still contained to their work area until the “all clear” is given. Scary stuff.

  41. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
    GFS 12z Nor’easter is potent, explosive intensification.
    1001 –> 960 mb in 24-hrs
    bottoms out in 950s in @Canada

  48. On the off chance the weekend storm does hit us, there’s no guarantees for snow either. There will not be any Arctic air. Just average January cold at best. The rain/snow line would be an issue.

      1. And its amazing thats even on the table at this point in the winter but nothing signaling a strong cold air supply. Even with that offshore track, its barely snow away from the coastline

        1. It’s further west than the 0z run. Significant accumulations for Norfolk, Bristol, and Plymouth Counties. I can see it in 6 hour increments on Weatherbell, Hadi would back me up, I think he uses Accuweather Pro.

          I think it’s an outlier though. The 12z UKMET remains way offshore, the 12z CMC looks mostly or entirely offshore, and most importantly, despite a westward shift on the operational 12z GFS, its ensembles shifted way east. That all sets the stage for an eastward trend beginning with tonight’s 18z and particularly 0z model guidance, in my opinion of course.

    1. Interesting read, thanks JJ. I myself was wondering why there were so many accidents/issues for this event. It seemed to take everyone by surprise. Like the article said, one run of one high res model showed the possibility of freezing rain, and only 12 hours from the onset. To me, that’s not enough time. The advisories weren’t even issued until precip had already started. I think the breakdown was in the communication. We can bash social media all we want for its fake and hyped forecasting, but those who were on social media saw the information, but due to the timing, the TV forecasts made no mention of it the night before and were too late to the punch that morning.

  52. Euro upwards of .50 to an inch from boston south. Mixing stays over cape. Waiting in exact QPF numbers and exact temps.

    1. Thanks Hadi. What are your thoughts on this storm? Think the euro will be even close to being right this time?

  53. I concur with the above discussion.

    The Euro and CMC have now trended Eastward.

    The ORIGINAL call of OTS is probably the correct call.

    We shall continue to monitor.

    DISAPPOINTED in 12Z Euro and CMC, BUT not surprised. 😀

  54. Hmmm

    Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 33m33 minutes ago
    Potential growing for stormy weather Saturday PM into Sunday AM. Looks like the tranquil weather may be ending.

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 23m23 minutes ago
    Euro has 4 snow events next 10 days DC to Boston.. the one on the weekend and Mon-Tue next week may have 6-12 locally 15.. each

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 17m17 minutes ago
    ECMWF 12z model develops 2 consecutive Nor’easters. One for weekend & then early next week. Still uncertain. Could be blockbuster or bust

    1. No surprise with Bastardi throwing out exact numbers. I dont agree with blockbuster or bust. I could easily see a couple Cape scrapers delivering 1-3″ers

      1. Indeed. Anything is possible.

        Hard to bet against TK at this point (from Hadi). Still a little time for things to shake out. We shall see. Here’s a hoping and a wishin.

        Again, very disappointed the 12Z Euro shifted Eastward.

    1. Really. I thought you said qpf was 1 inch for the 0Z run?
      What did I miss?

      In any case, we’ll keep watching.

    1. OK, but the position of last night’s run sure as hell looked a lot better to me
      than this morning’s 12Z run.

        1. Hard to tell. Whatever the case, 12Z had more qpf.
          Nice looking SNOW map with decent ratios.

          About 8 inches or so for Boston.

          That would be nice. We shall see.

  61. Good points by DT regarding the potential weekend system…

    DOES THIS MEAN A BIG SNOWSTORM FOR EAST COAST? ?
    1. This is rapidly Changing situation. The TREND over the past 3 model cycles is for this low to come “Up the coast ” BUT because of the Upper air pattern over North America it can only come so far North. This Low isnt going to Cape Cod or the benchmark ( 40N and 70 W).
    2. This is NOT 10 days out or 7 days .. its 5 days and closing FAST. keep in Mind The forecasts have to be OUT there by JAN 23… today is the 19th… so do the math.
    3. This event does have the support of MJO which is currently in Phase 8 (weak phase 8) which in JAN/ FEB / MAR is one of the east coast snowstorm phases
    4. Low level temps are marginal . This means right near the ground it might be 34 and snow/ rain mix which does not accumulate

  64. 18Z NAM develops that clipper pretty well as it gets to the coast.
    Some fairly decent snows in the Mid-Atlantic area. Too bad it
    won’t make a sharp turn up the coast.

    1. plus i just plotted different models onto a small map that shows a general greement. of just along the benchmark.

    1. Stupid statement.

      Patterns don’t suddenly change in 24 hours. Computer projections can do that, however.

      1. I was just about to comment on that. Along those lines, what are the models doing that’s now allowing this system to come up the coast? And is it realistic.

  68. I just hope we’re not all getting our hopes up with this recent trend. I know that word trend has been thrown around today, but is it really a trend? How many runs do we need for it to become a trend? I feel like its only been a couple runs and that to me doesn’t count.

      1. i would like people to be a bit more positive, all this negativity is making the snow go some where else. plenty of time to change but lets not loose that there has been a trend in all the models

        1. Sorry, just how its been this winter, and in this timeframe of around 5 days out especially with the euro. At least 5 or 6 times so far this winter the euro has shown a major storm for us only for it to go bye bye. I’ll wait till at least thursday or friday to get excited about this one, if its still on the table.

  69. At noon today meteorologist Gil Simmons said its inching closer but all it is talk for conversation and nothing immenent.
    This is why I like him he doesn’t hype anything but makes you aware there is potential.

  70. No matter if this comes to fruition or not the pattern is shaping up really well for feb. Major digging and GOM will be open for business. Btw got the new iPhone 6 and boy it’s awesome and easier to type with less errors 🙂

  71. Right now I still am in the mostly a miss camp, as things move S and E of SNE. The pattern (which has not changed in 24 hours) favors progressive systems with limited mechanism to slow systems down and bring the up the NE coast into SNE.

    I have been wrong and will be again. I remember a nonsensical march 2013 storm with a northern fetch of snow 600 miles long that made it well into SNE for significant accumulations. So yes, there can be exceptions. As for the “oh no, we need to make a call on this, time is running out for adequate warning.” I am pretty sure 48 hours notice for a weekend, light-moderate impact event would be more than enough…

    Still think February 1-Feburary 15th is our potential bullseye time here in SNE.

    1. Thanks JMA. To your point about having enough notice. While I don’t expect minor details to be hashed out at 48 hours and beyond, but I would like to know if a significant snowstorm is or isn’t coming with more than 48 hours notice. Even more importance should be given to being over a weekend when most people don’t watch the news as religiously as they do during the week. Basically, if they don’t hear it by the Friday evening/night newscasts that it will snow Sunday, people will be caught off guard.

  72. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2m2 minutes ago
    update coming. 500 mb tells the story, this storm this is not a miss for Mid-Atl or Southern new england. Video coming with rationale

    So I ask: Is this a Stupid Statement?

    Bernie seems committed. 😀

  73. Sorry Ace. Just don’t agree. No commutes or school, far less impact on a weekend storm. You are over-thinking it. Typical weathernut!! I say that will all do affection.

    Isn’t Friday 48 hours from Sunday?

    1. Hahaha, i fully admit to being a weathernut, and proud of it 🙂

      You’re right, no major commutes but that doesn’t mean people don’t leave their homes all weekend. Some work weekends and some schools have weekend sessions. And yes, my math was off, Friday is within 48 hours.

  74. I thought that these guys were GONE. I guess not. They’re at it again.

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 14m14 minutes ago
    #Snowstorm Potential This Weekend could be a BIG ONE! Stay Tuned….

      1. They can’t stop themselves

        NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 2m2 minutes ago
        Saturday could be the storm we’ve all been waiting for this Winter………

        1. LOL …… Of course its the “storm we’ve all been waiting for this winter” …… At this point, we’ll take anything.

  75. Geez ….. The models are going to have the weekend storm figured out BEFORE the NFL gets a clue and has some comment about how much the footballs weighed Sunday Night ….

    What the heck is taking them so long ?

    1. It’s like the old joke:

      “There’s a henweigh on your shoulder”
      “What’s a henweigh?”
      “About 5 pounds”

      That’s about what I think of “BALL GATE”

  76. FWIW,

    I’m not liking the 18Z GFS so far. Perhaps there will be a nice little change, but so
    far….UGH!!!!

        1. Oh Boy does this thing ever CRANK!!!!!
          Closer still.

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=099

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012018&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=099

          Looks to BEND enough? No?

          ALMOST. OH so close and a MONSTER to boot

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=102

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015012018&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=102

            1. Don’t want to be a Debbie Downer here but I suspect we will be disappointed after the oZ run. Seems to be the way this winter is going.

              1. Mac laughs at me cause I always think it is Suzie downer. ….. For once I would have been right. Except I agree with you

        1. I think we will be lucky to get a coating based on what Tk has said above. The south coast may see some flurries but that could be it.

                1. Indeed I am. I question anybody. Nobody is immune. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I still have my opinion. 🙂

        2. Less than 1 inch South Coast, flurries at most elsewhere, and it’s more an early Thursday event – not tomorrow.

            1. Whoever gets the “jackpot” with snow on thursday will be like winning $2 on a $2 scratch ticket…

  78. Harvey trending closer for Saturday afternoon storm and yet another possibility Monday afternoon and cold air would support snow.

        1. I wanted to be a comedian but the pay would suck unless I got really famous and then the lifestyle would suck, so I just stick to weather. I figure that is comical enough half the time. 😉

          1. Well we are glad you chose to stick with weather because I am not sure how this crowd would do on a comedy blog. 🙂

  79. I’m in camp TK until further notice. And he has a lot of slack with me for the record. Has nailed this winter so far. And he was way ahead of it.

    That said, I might not even look at a model. (ok, maybe that’s going a little far)

    1. Im with you as well. I need to see most if not all global models showing this as a hit for me to get excited especially given how this winter has transpired so far. We’ll talk friday.

      1. All Harvey said was that models were trending closer for Saturday afternoon and possibly another one on Monday afternoon calling Thursdays the weaker of the 3.

          1. Know what’s funny (not), I’m heading to North Conway for the weekend. Ha! I can’t even travel north to get snow. OTS follows me!

  80. TK – Are ocean effect snows for eastern sections possible for the Thursday system?

    As for Saturday night’s system:

    Eric – mostly rain/mix everywhere
    Harvey – snow Boston N&W
    Pete – snow Boston N&W

    1. Some, but not much.

      I can’t justify that much detail on a weekend threat at this point. Tuesday night ……………….. Saturday night. Big distance between those. If you peg a rain/snow line 96 hours out, it was probably luck. 😉

  82. for some reason i just feel good about the weekend system, just had not had this feeling for a while!! Models continue to show it as well. Hopefully it gets closer so that my area gets the snow. I can not stand seeing the cape getting hit by snow. need it to be that the cape and islands have all rain 😉

    1. Well the islands have the best shot with this weak system late tomorrow into Thursday . I believe ocean effect snow comes into play for certain areas as well.

    1. Love it. Did you see that WEEI is having a contest in which the prize is an autographed football by Tom Brady? And you know what everyone’s response was………….. 🙂

  85. Re: Saturday

    IF, and I say IF that system gets here it WILL be SNOW in Boston & NW with a mix
    South coast and perhaps RAIN on the Cape and Islands.

    Else it doesn’t matter, does it?

      2. Moisture don’t mean squat if it’s falling mainly over the fish. 🙂 They’ll hardly know the difference. 😉

        1. With what I’m reading from different mets most seem to say it has a shot as its trending closer. Fisher thinking rain? That means break out the plows lol. With fairness I have not heard from him just what Philip posted.

          1. It may very well be too mild for snow on Saturday evening. Southwesterly flow ahead of a northern stream low.

              1. It ends cold. I could see some areas reaching 40 Saturday. Not “warm” but not that cold either.

  88. Btw, Pete already has a snowfall map for Saturday night. No #’s yet mind you, but an actual snowfall map nevertheless. The rain/snow line extends fairly far due south of Boston but the immediate South Shore, South Coast and the Cape has rain. There is also a sharp precip cutoff not too far N&W of 495 IIRC.

  90. A few thoughts…

    Yes, most of the TV guys are talking about details regarding the weekend threat WAY too early. But as always, I know why. Gotta “break the news” first. Well, I don’t subscribe to that method and that is why you will never see me on television, other than possibly the local cable network as I am thinking of starting my own show there sometime.

    The ocean effect aspect of the early Thursday system will be minimal, at best. Just not that strong an onshore flow and no focusing mechanism to really get anything going. As for the storm that is one of the pair of players that sets up the onshore flow, it only gets close enough to bring minor snow to the South Coast.

    The weekend system. Oh the weekend system. Met’s and snow lovers have been just WAITING for something to talk about, haven’t they? And can you blame them after last Winter? Sure. You can blame them, but what’s the point other than just doing it to be mean? 😉 Seriously though, I do not have enough faith in guidance that has not shown me it has a consistent clue on anything the atmosphere has done since a little swirly thing called “Nuri” charged across the Pacific Ocean and altered the weather in the entire northern hemisphere, and called up her friends MJO and QBO to join the party. When things like this happen, you must examine guidance objectively and weed out anything suspect. Most of the time that will work just fine. Eventually you’ll blow a big forecast and then it’s time to change the lineup. But for that, I wait……
    All of that said, IF we are to be surprised by a system before the end of January, I feel that it would indeed by that system. Do I think it’s going to happen at this point? No. And just because a system will be “loaded with moisture” does not mean that moisture is going to be deposited here.

    Monday Tuesday? Well that is the title of a song by the Scottish pop band “Pilot”. Some of you may remember their hit “Magic” from the late 1970s. 3 of the members of that band went on to be regular members of Alan Parsons Project. But wait, we were talking about weather, right? Sorry, I get sidetracked by music all the time. It’s in the blood. Monday and Tuesday… We’ll keep an eye on that.

    1. A true “models ensemble”. Brilliant. I think you should do this more often.

      The mean is considerably outside 40/70 at the moment…

    1. That, IMO, has the highest chance of verifying of anything I have seen. But it’s early. Very early.

      Even if it ended up closer, many may make the mistake of thinking it’s going to hang around for a while. It seems to be a mentality many get into. Big storm, cuts off, slows down. Nope. This thing is going to be moving like an express. Very progressive.

      1. Yes, I noticed that. I looked at hour 108 and it was no where near us. SO I jumped ahead to 120 and it was already long gone.

        IF it gets us, won’t last long.

        This one looks to be fairly juicy, but way too progressive.

        Oh well. Next.

          1. I call it as I see it.

            I am waiting for the 0Z runs. IF the 0Z gfs still has a storm, then we can talk. IF not, well then we don’t talk. 😀

            I looked at the FIM to get MORE confirmation and I posted what I found. Simple as that.

            1. Also, I don’t like the looks of that Northern flow. It just “seems” to want to push that
              Southern energy supporting the storm out South and East of us.

              We shall see IF the Southern Stream is powerful enough to break through at least up to SNE.

    2. most of the energy as of right now looks to remain off shore, much can change, models been trending a bit further north in general

  94. I was wondering about this….from the NWS

    THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH
    DEVELOPS…EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BRING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW FARTHER INTO THE REGION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STILL WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY MORE THAN A COATING OF SNOW.

    1. And for Saturday…

      AT THIS POINT…LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO START SAT NIGHT…THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW SUN MORNING. FOR NOW…GOING WITH GLANCING BLOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOW/S TRACK AND INTENSITY CLOSELY.

      1. This is a TEST. Please excuse.

        AT THIS POINT…LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO START SAT
        NIGHT…THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON
        BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW SUN MORNING. FOR NOW…GOING WITH GLANCING
        BLOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOW/S TRACK AND INTENSITY
        CLOSELY.

        1. Well that didn’t work.

          Tk do you know of a way to format text in this blog
          so it doesn’t have short lines and look awful?

          I want a line break here
          Now I want another line break right here

          1. Another test

            AT THIS POINT…LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO START SAT
            NIGHT…THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON
            BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW SUN MORNING. FOR NOW…GOING WITH GLANCINGBLOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS LOW/S TRACK AND INTENSITY CLOSELY.

                1. I have never been able to figure that out, especially regarding NWS stuff. It must be the 85 year old teletype machines they still use. 😉

  95. Back to football and deflated balls for a second….So now (and I apologize if this has already been posted) it seem like after the interception in the second quarter this is what happened (from Boston.com)
    “On Monday night, WCVB-TV (Ch. 5) sports anchor Mike Lynch reported that Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson, who intercepted Tom Brady in the second quarter of Sunday’s game, told coach Chuck Pagano that the ball felt deflated.

    Newsday’s Bob Glauber, citing “a person familiar with the background of the matter,” also reported that Jackson “gave the ball to a member of the Colts’ equipment staff, who noticed the ball seemed underinflated and the notified” Pagano. Glauber reports that Colts general manager Ryan Grigson was then notified in the press box and contacted NFL director of football operations Mike Kensil, who then communicated the information to the officials on the field at halftime.

    So the ball sat on the Indy sideline for awhile after being handled by at least a couple of “non officials”….gee nothing wrong with that. LOL

    1. Wow. And all the while creating a smokescreen to take focus off the Super Bowl. Yes I know the pats have great focus but human they are

      1. I’m getting more frustrated by the day and the NFL says they need 2 to 3 more days !!!!!

        This is all Brady’s fault, darn interception !

        When we win the Super Bowl, Belichick will then trade Brady for a better first round pick then the current one they have that will be taken away. 🙂 🙂

          1. You bet ! 🙂 🙂

            Arizona and Buffalo (could you imagine that) need QB’s. And their round 1 draft picks must be higher than the Pats current spot.

            1. Nah…let’s ship him to Oakland (near his home) and we should be able to get 2 first round picks (#1 this year at least) LOL

  96. The breaking news first just hit an all new low. The family of the dr at BWH asked to have his name kept out of reports. The media has been camping at the house since afternoon. Only one station so far has gone public with his name. Way to go BZ…all new low.

      1. A friend lives around the corner from his home The news trucks have been there all afternoon. Kudos to 5 and 7 for keeping it quiet…so far. Prayers for him and his family.

    4. Actually make that 2. Just was watching a video on fox25 who showed his face, name, age and on to say some kind of professor with Harvard medical.

  97. I am happy to report that climatologically, Logan’s two coldest days (high temp wise) on average, are tomorrow and Thursday.

  98. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3&region=ea

    Well, I think this PNA teleconnection is an indication that its going to be difficult to sharpen the flow along the east coast enough to bring these systems closer to us. And as you can see in the satellite link, there is currently a very flat west to east flow along the east coast.

    I’d think this teleconnection would have to go much more positive, indicative of a stronger west coast ridge, to help invoke a stronger east coast trof.

    It is only one piece of the puzzle, but if this isnt helping the cause, then we probably need other factors to even be more strongly aligned to help sharpen the flow along the east coast.

    1. All season many met’s have been ignoring some of the indices and I have no idea why. I’m glad you see you pointed this out. 🙂

    2. There is a nice piece of energy currently in the SW.
      This will SHARPEN the flow on the East Coast at least up to about
      maryland or New Jersey. It could stop there and take the storm
      harmlessly out South of us. Hopefully it will sharpen “just” enough to at least
      impact SNE. That is the whole problem here.

      AS I said above, I don’t like the Northern flow. Could cut it off at the pass.

      Going to be awfully close one way or the other.

      TETT

      That is TOO EARLY TO TELL from Dick Albert.

      1. Thanks TK and I believe you OS.

        I’ve never been very good at understanding the impact those pieces of energy in the southwest US and/or the four corner cutoff lows have on our weather. For me, one of the more challenging weather pieces. Sometimes the energy comes out fast, other times slow, sometimes in pieces ……..

  100. hi everyone, just poking my head into the room, glad to see the Pats talk and some reality-check on the weekend snow hype

    carry-on!

      1. Thx Vicki/WHW, hope you are both doing well too!

        Buoy turns a year old next week, just starting to chill out and become a really cool dog. Should get more time back as he eases into more of an older routine.

  101. I don’t often name names, but I really wish I knew why Joe Bastardi always looks for whatever model has the most snow or at least most snow potential and that is automatically the right model. Whatever happened to actual meteorology?

    1. sue its espn, they love trying to find every way to get something against the patriots, wait until the nfl announces it, NFL network has nothing on it. Last thing they said including the officiating team is that if anything, it would be against the refs and the ball carriers. since they handle the balls once the team give it to them.

  104. Finally, before bed.

    Reported that the NFL found 11 of 12 game balls used by PATS to be under
    inflated by 2 lbs.

    I’m SICK if this is true. SICK.
    They’re too good to have to resort to this bullshit. I’m SICK.

    1. its espn , nfl has not released any statements and the closest nfl people think its bullcrap so i would not worry about it to much.

    2. May also, if done intentionally, be the action of 1 person. Investigation is still not complete.

  105. There are a few issues with the Saturday storm if it indeed becomes strong enough and tracks close enough…

    Not a whole lot of cold air.
    Low pressure to the north where you want to see a high.
    Not good. If it ends up becoming a dominant low, mix/rain would end up more involved.

    Precip probably would last less than 8 hours. Very, very fast system.

    …………

    Colder air much more dominant for the late Monday/Tuesday threat, however.

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