Saturday Storm

550 Comments

7:35AM

SUMMARY…
High pressure will keep it dry and cool across southeastern New England today before a low pressure area express-trains its way northeastward up the East Coast on Saturday bringing precipitation to the region. This storm will track southeast of Cape Cod and be working with a marginally cold air mass. Arrival time: Dawn or shortly after. Departure time: Evening. Type: Depends on where you are, but mainly rain Cape Cod ending as brief mix/snow with little or no accumulation of snow. Rain, turning to snow with up to 1 inch accumulation remainder of South Coast region, mix to rain remainder of southeastern MA up to near Boston turning to snow later in the afternoon before tapering off evening, accumulations 1 to 3 inches in these areas. Snow to mix to snow northwest of Boston. Mainly snow northwest of I 495 in areas north of the Mass Pike, with accumulations 3 to 6 inches in these areas with a risk of a locally heavier amount. A gusty wind early Sunday behind the storm dropping off later as high pressure moves with with more bright weather. Clipper system Monday will redevelop offshore but so far looks like a lighter system, precipitation-wise. Probably all snow except possible mix Cape Cod with that system as it will be colder. Heading into the middle of next week it looks like fair but cold weather will be the rule.

More on the upcoming weekend storm later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows in the 20s to near 30. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain develops early, peaks in the afternoon, ends in the evening. Accumulations listed above. Highs in the 30s to around 40. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH early, E to NE 10-20 MPH later but higher gusts southeastern MA.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, mix Cape Cod. Low 20. High 33.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

550 thoughts on “Saturday Storm”

  1. Thanks TK !!

    Tom says:

    January 23, 2015 at 7:37 AM

    A couple of thoughts …..

    If I read the NWS discussion correctly, lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. LOWS !!!

    1) So, Lets say Logan is 32F tomorrow at 6am, Dewpoint is about 25F ….. Play around with the temps in your mind and get yourself through the rest of the day, tinkering with what is likely to happen with those boundary layer temps during the event.

    2) Going back to the NWS discussion, I believe I read in the wording that the boundary layer thermal profiles are really close and all it takes is a difference of 1F. Then, I went over the ch7 and saw that they had put a time table for tomorrow. Starts at 7am, ends I think at 7pm and so the storm takes play during the day …….. when there’s daylight. Uh oh, there’s your potential .5 to 1F.

    Seeing red flags.

    I suppose the storm bombing out may be on the snow side, if the bombing happens soon enough before all of the precip pulls away.

    Reply

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  3. Thanks TK! I agree with your thoughts. My guesses for some selected venues:

    2″ at Logan
    5″ at Worcester
    2″ at Providence
    3″ at my home in Wrentham

    Jackpot in our region? I’ll go with Lowell, 7″. Close enough to some heavier precip but likely to stay cold enough for mainly snow there. I’d say there’s a greater chance of busting high on the numbers (actual amounts come in much lower than expected) than busting low. If the GFS verifies, and it might, no one is getting over 4″.

  4. Ha! Really, the first potential “real” snow for this winter and I’ll be in NH for a miss. You can’t make it up.

  5. I guess I see a lot of low estimates. My guess is Logan comes in at 5,6 ORH is 7.8. Sticking with a euro/cmc blend and accounting for colder temps due to how strong system is.

    1. Sounds good to me. I’m with you, based on what I now know.
      OF course, that “may” need to be adjusted after ALL of the 12Z model
      suites are in. 😀

      Although the precip doesn’t last long, the system is loaded and progged to
      be quite strong. That should account for something.

      1. I agree about the system being loaded, but how much of that falls on the NW flank has been a huge issue all along.

        2. We understand that. There will be a narrow swath
          where it is “just” barely cold enough, yet still under
          the heavier precip. Boston “appears” to make it into
          that swath OR very nearly so.

          We shall see.

          Minor jog and we’re looking at a RAINORAMA.

          My feeling is that Northern flow which we were worried all along would push the system out South of us, “may”
          Just have enough influence to keep our area mostly
          in the Snow, although there still may be a breif period
          of mix and/or rain.

          We shall see. Should be an interesting day.

  7. What i want to know is, what is going to cause this thing to bomb out without high pressure to the north and no supply of really cold air. Isn’t bombogenesis caused by the gradient between colder arctic airmass and a warmer one? Is it phasing? I thought someone said this was strictly a southern stream system with no phasing. This could just be my very limited weather knowledge but I’m having a hard time seeing the ingredients for this thing to strengthen as it approaches.

  10. I have to give Channel 7 credit for the best blog title maybe ever…

    “Meteorological Kobayashi Maru”

    2. That is a good one.

      So then, we have to re-program Mother Nature to get SNOW out of
      this system? Eh? 😆 👿 👿 😈

  11. Boston (logan) 1.5 inches
    worcester (4 inches)
    Providence ( 2 inches)
    Billerica (my home) 7.5 inches
    interior northeast mass gets 4-8 with some higher amounts?

    1. That map, If it verified, would probably mean 3-4 inches at Logan with 6 inches out in the Western/SouthWestern neighborhoods.

    2. i agree with that map some locations in that area circled by the purple i think could see a bit more as well

        1. I also like that fact that we finally HAVE something here, even if it does mostly mix/rain. We have something.

  17. No reason to change my thinking from yesterday. It indeed will look like a winter wonderland out there for many north, west and southwest of Boston—INCLUDING Boston for several hours. 4-8 inches of snow likely Boston north, west and southwest with closer to 4 inches in the city. The Jackpot should fall in areas between 95 to 495. 2-4 inches immediate shoreline down to the south shore and an inch or two maximum southeast MA and the Cape. The islands see mostly rain from this event with a brief burst of snow at the tail end of the storm as the low deepens. Enjoy!

  18. Mon/Tues potential looks to be dwindling but I certainly wouldn’t count it out just yet. Still way too early. If the southern jet just buckles a bit more, we could have a much more significant event on our hands.

  19. One last note before I head out. For those of you who are following the NAM. Be careful of its cold bias and its ability to produce a bit more snow than actually falls. Shave a couple of inches off the NAM and there is your more likely snowfall potential.

  21. Very similar to a system early in the snow season that produced one third of what the NAM and SREF/HRRR was forecasting under 24 hours ahead of the event. Just something to keep in mind. 🙂

    Many other factors in play as well…. some for bigger amounts, some against.

  22. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    [Technical] 23.12z NAM shows deep lift w/ mid-level f-gen banding beneath RRQ of upper level jet Sat. Aftn

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    If 23.12z NAM is correct, could see a banding signature of heavier precip @ the Sat. aftn timeframe; still evaluating, no certainty

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8C17DdCIAAE6cm.jpg

  24. 12z RGEM looks very interesting too. I’ve always preferred that model for forecasting 48 hours or less. We’ll have to see the rest of 12z guidance but numbers may have to be nudged up a little. GFS time now!

      1. Great snow total assuming a 10:1 snow ratio. Not sure, but suspect ratios will be more like 7:1 or even a tad lower in the city.

            1. Just my guess. I saw that somewhere.
              Eric? not sure.

              However, SREF ratio was more like starting at 10:1 going to 5:1.

              SREF ratios ALWAYS are too LOW.

  25. Indeed Boston was right on that heavy zone line taking other things into consideration boston is going to be in on the jackpot zone by the end of the day.

  26. Thanks Tk not seeing more than 1-2 inches along the Boston Providence corridor, we can’t seem to get snowstorms here, that type of winter 🙂

  27. hmm, looking at many models right now, I think a general 4-8 inches but very well could see 10 inches in some locations

      1. im updating my maps right now will have my snow map up later this afternoon and it will show why i am thinking that

  28. We got a good dose of rain coming especially during the day Saturday, it’s Saturday night where 1-3 inches could fall 🙂

    2. Charlie you’re missing something.

      There will also be a front end dump as well.
      And much of the area will NOT go to rain, but Mix or sleet for a time. 😀

  29. By the end of today the blog will have a foot lol, good day folks, 1-3,2-4 lots of rain during sat, enjoy your day 🙂

  32. Be really careful of biting on these inflated amounts from a cold biased NAM and short range high res guidance that has basically yet to get any important event correct. They have not been improved.

  34. Totally agree TK. I think GFS will be more of the correct solution. Hope I’m wrong but it doesn’t want to snow here this year.

  35. I never thought I would say this but I agree with Charlie on this one. My thought is based purely on blending all of the info I have read here as well as on tv media sites. I suspect we have a lot of disappointed people by the time the storm winds up.

    2. Down our way sue maybe not that much and even more towards the cape. But if we have a colder solution with some help boston will be in on it I THINK.

      1. This was more of an exercise of reverse psychology. I am hoping if I predict that it will be more rain than snow then perhaps the opposite will happen. 🙂 It was worth a shot!

  37. Will be away from blog til later afternoon.

    Keep this in mind:
    HRRR is a waste of computer time.
    There is no high to the north.
    The NAO is positive.

    Going to be difficult to go over 6 in all snow areas this time.

    12 hours of precip… heaviest 3 hours or less.

  38. NWS has this within their Winter Storm Watch.

    * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    That’s some pretty serious SNOW, IF it ever comes to be.

  39. One thing’s for sure, this is going to be fun to watch developing. Very explosive cyclogenesis. 40+ mb in 24 hours possible. Almost double the rate of what’s needed for a “bomb” cyclone. In terms of snow though, I’m not impressed with the rest of the 12z suite. TK and JMA are spot on. Frankly, with all the factors going against it it’s still pretty impressive that it should manage to put down a fairly widespread 2-4″.

  41. Temps today, at least in Walpole, are pretty spot on for what was forecast. Actually a degree cooler.

  42. Boston’s forecast high temp for today is 37. Its currently sitting at 34. So unless it was warmer earlier or it will warm past 37 in the next few hours, i think today’s temps underachieved.

    1. Agree ace and I’m thinking the same for tomorrow. I’m in camp oldsalty for this one regarding Boston . Just watched the forcast on 5 and they have boston. In the 2-4 zone but even said boston is a wildcard because it could get more.

  44. 39 in both in Hingham (Conservatory Park) and Weymouth right now. Water temp in the low 40s. Unless things change I think the south coast and coastal areas south of Boston don’t see much at all.

  45. It’s amazing, the 12z Euro not only failed to back off, but went even colder/snowier. Very large area of about 10″ (on a 10:1) ratio. All snow inside I95. I don’t envy those having to make a forecast for this. But I would still hold to a warmer/wetter scenario.

  46. TK was right earlier too, the NWS high temperature forecasts for today were considerably too low. It’s warm out there. Granted, with major changes ongoing to the air mass, this may not mean a whole lot for tomorrow, but interesting nonetheless.

    1. I’m confused…Acemaster seemed to think the opposite…..which is it? Underachieved, Over, or dependent on where we are talking about?

      1. He may have seen an updated forecast. NWS has been adjusting up all day. The original call was too low.

        1 PM UPDATE…
        MOST OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN LAST UPDATE.

          2. Good question, that I don’t know. Probably a general 33F-35F. You’re right that the coast seems cooler though, only 34 or so in the Boston area, but down near us Norwood is 37 with a couple heating hours left. Might approach 40 there. They aren’t huge differences but when you’re dealing with the 32F mark like we will be tomorrow it makes it a big difference.

            1. True, good point on just a degree or 2 making a big difference in precip type. I just checked, up to 37 now where I am in Walpole.

        2. I didnt realize NWS changed their forecast high temps while the day was already going on. Learn something new every day!

    2. Maybe im looking at the wrong data, but NWS had Boston’s high at 37. Region-wide was also forecast to be in the high 30’s to near 40. Now some areas are there, but there are also some that are below this, including Logan which sits at 35 degrees. There’s more “heating” to the day as its only around 2pm, but still. Again, i must be looking at the wrong data, or just wishcasting.

        2. Here is the 4:15 am text forecast

          ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
          NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
          415 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

          MAZ015-232100-
          SUFFOLK MA-
          INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOSTON
          415 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

          .TODAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
          GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

          1. Thank you for the clarification Keith. Maybe TK was speaking in general terms across the region and not specifically for Boston.

          2. Looking at the reporting stations on Wundermaps the Boston temps seem to be running between 32 and 37 depending upon location.

            Also interesting to note is that there a few 40 degree readings showing up in the West Roxbury, Dedham area right now

              1. Maybe…but the reporting stations are what they are…that’s all I really look at. Yeah there maybe a bad one here and there (one is showing 47 in Coolidge Corner) but overall based on the temps I’m seeing on the NWS they are pretty accurate.

                3. Ok…so even if the Wundermap stations are within the NWS station #’s you are dismissing them???

  47. BREAKING NEWS

    Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 17m17 minutes ago
    Heads up, I am likely going to increase predicted snow totals for tomorrow this PM. I think wider area will see more significant snow. 4-8″

    1. Throwing a bit more % to the euro maybe? Its been nothing but consistent, and its pretty late in the game. Can we ignore it?

  49. Changing gears to the Pats. I heard a report today the guy on the Colts who intercepted the ball who allegedly said it felt flat came out and said he never said that at all and doesnt know where that report came from. Hmmmm.

    1. I saw that too. I also heard mentioned (on the Sports Hub I think) that someone working for the Pats (who refused to be named) said some within the organization believe this to be some kind of setup. I don’t see that myself but who knows.

    2. EXACTLY. I heard that YESTERDAY.

      Mrs. OS take:

      The league has ALLOWED QBs to mess with the balls for years and have
      looked the other way. This is an embarrassment for the league and Brady and/or BB Are NOT going to take the fall. Also, Kraft has Goodell by the balls.

      Outcome: League makes an announcement that Patriots guilty of NO
      wrong doing. This has been common practice. League rules will be changed to keep balls under control of the officials. Period. End of discussion and controversy.

        1. That would be great… sadly public opinion has already made up their minds, i am a die hard fan have been for 30 years, if we win the superbowl were are tainted, we lose we cant win without cheating, to late to take away the NFL screwing up, unless they can find who the “setup” was
          cough cough (harbaugh)

        2. …The Patriots and their attorneys would likely demand sufficient time to develop and present a legal defense. This is true for multiple reasons. “Extending the clock” on league review of Deflategate would push the ruling’s timeline past the Super Bowl and allow the Patriots time to conduct their own investigation and formulate a sensible defense.
          http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/21/new-england-patriots-deflategate-investigation-bill-belichick-tom-brady

        3. I’m hearing a lot of reasons why the NFL is dragging its feet….at the expense of the PATS. I do not care why but I do care that they are doing it. Too many people to quick to jump on the Pats and ignore many conflicting reports and also not find fault with the league which has made some boneheaded moves this year and the refs who very well may not have done their jobs.

          I like Mrs. OS but I’m not turning away from some sort of setup….sorry TK I think I just felt the earth shake when you fell off your chair 🙂

          From what I can find, the balls are supplied to the teams by attendants of the home team….sort of makes it impossible for the ball handler to be in cahoots with Brady if this was first discovered at a game IN indy.

  50. 2PM Logan = 36
    Beverly = 35
    Blue Hill = 33
    Norwood = 37
    Lawrence = 34
    Taunton = 37

    I go by these, NOT by the MA and POP weather stations about the area. 😀

    1. Frankly, as far as I am concerned, temps a cooler than I expected.
      I certainly expected high temps to be around 40.

    2. The Wundermap #’s are not that much different…sorry but I think you are barking up the wrong tree on this one.

      1. I’m Not barking anywhere. I am simply saying I don’t trust
        MANY of those Wundermap stations. I have looked at them
        for years. I trust the NWS stations.

        That is all I am saying.

        If you want a comment on what the temperature mean, I’ll make one. It doesn’t mean a hill of beans for tomorrow’s event whether today’s high temp is 36 or 40.

  53. Eric is worried that the atmosphere is going:
    ‘isothermal’ tomorrow. A slight change at any level could be all rain or all snow.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 18m18 minutes ago
    Why winter forecasting is a real pain sometimes. Fcast temp is 32F for the 1st 7,000′ of the atmosphere tomorrow.

  54. I have had some very well known met’s tell me that there is nothing wrong with Wundermap data in general. The bad ones stick out like a sore thumb. 🙂

  56. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    Oh, ECMWF control run of 50-member ensemble a bit juicier too w/QPF for New England over next 36-hrs.

  57. Does the fact that there’s very little if any frozen precip on the northern edge of the precip shield to this storm so far have any bearing on our precip type tomorrow? Usually with these storms you start to see rain changing to snow on the north and northwest edges, so far not much.

    1. Just that it is not a deeply cold air mass extending well into the South.
      As it moves more Northward, you’ll see it changing.

      As long as it’s still cold enough up here to snow, we’ll be fine.

      I just wish the conditions weren’t so Marginal.
      Impossible to forecast.

      In the past I have seen so many times where the forecasters were conservative
      in these situations only to end up with far more snow than forecast as they
      thought it so marginal as to have more mix or rain.

      I’ve seen this many times before.

    2. Yes it does, because there is no really cold air mass to work with, and no high to the north to supply a cold air mass.

  58. Hopefully I will get more than 2.5 inches back the day before Thanksgiving which was the biggest snow of the season.
    3-5 inches for my area.
    Anyone who has to shovel take it easy as it will be that heavy wet snow or as I Like to call it cement snow since when shoveling it feels like your moving cement.

  60. I’ve heard on many news stations Most of the snow remains north and west and especially Worcester cty, I got a feeling most of us south and east of Boston will see very little (under 2 inches).

    1. South and east of Boston getting less snow is an easy forecast. Its the zone in between, Boston included, that’s the tough call.

      1. I saw a tweet from I think was a made up Twitter acct, but it looked real, it said 12+ possible downtown Boston, and many people commenting were saying oh no!!! And stating to get bread and milk, i laughed 🙂

      2. Which is the type of zone the HRRR and other cousins consistently over-forecast snow for… at least 75% of the time. When I learned from my mentors, there was something we used regarding model error. It was a type of persistence forecast that worked the majority of the time. It is what I used the day before Thanksgiving to keep the ranges where they ended up instead of these 8-12+ amounts these short range models were spitting out.

        I’m using it again as part of my reasoning. Will it backfire on me? Maybe. We’ll know in about 24 hours.

  61. It’s funny… We love to see a nice high pressure area ridged across Quebec ahead of these systems. And where is the high pressure going to be centered as this storm approaches? BERMUDA.

  62. Amounts out towards Worcester may need an increase, looking at the new NAM and the general westward/juicier trend today. A 4-7″ region may be needed out there, and some higher totals wouldn’t be a surprise. Other than that though, a lot of 1-4″ totals.

  63. Tk most models suggest it to be just a tad to warm while most of the heaviest precip is falling, then a little backside snow sat night, concur?

    2. Other than a quick accumulation right at the start in some areas, most of the snow in the mix zone comes at the end and a quick shot of it in the rain zone. The heaviest precipitation occurs before that.

    2. I have often agreed with him this season and his analysis has been excellent. But this time, 4-8 inches of all snow on the South Shore? Nope.

    3. I can’t take this guy seriously, all snow in Plymouth area of mass, guys on crack, 🙂 doesn’t know the topography around here

      1. I agree about him not knowing all the microclimates of the area, hes a mid-Atlantic guy, but his overall weather knowledge is very good. He’s nailed most storms, or non storms this winter so far and has been conservative like TK and cautious of the lack of conducive pattern for snow on the east coast.

  66. TK, any thoughts on freezing rain potential tomorrow? If it’s really going to be 32 all the way up, it would seem like a possibility. NWS has some light ice accumulations forecast, generally a few hundredths of an inch.

    1. There may be a narrow zone of that in the mix area but it will probably not stay in any one spot for very long.

    1. Thanks Hadi. That’s awesome. Much appreciated.

      Can you possibly try something.

      When you upload it to Imgur, before you copy the URL,
      Please TRY clicking on the image to enlarge it and then copy the url.
      Typically you’ll get a much larger image when you do this.
      At least that’s how it seems to work for me.

      Tx

    1. Taking the NAM verbatim and factoring in its cold bias, we can lower those amounts a little more as well.

  69. Nice 5 6 inches for my area on the NAM run. I am not taking too much stock in since its the NAM and its 18z run
    Winter Weather Advisory up for my county.

  70. This afternoon’s CPC Outlook is looking promising for cold and snow events AFTER the 29th. Is this matching your overall Winter Outlook for the start of February as well TK?

    CPC current timeframe = Jan. 29 – Feb. 6

        2. Looks AWFULLY WARM!!!!!!

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog

  73. HAPPY HORSE DOODOO from Robert Kraft:

    Statement from Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft
    Posted 38 minutes ago
    New England Patriots

    The following is a statement from Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft.
    “On Monday, I received a letter from the league office informing me that they would be conducting an investigation into the air pressure of the game balls. Immediately after receiving the letter, I instructed our staff to be completely cooperative and transparent with the league’s investigators. During the three days they were here, we provided access to every full- and part-time employee the league’s representatives requested to speak with and produced every communication device that they requested to search. It is an ongoing process that the league and our team are taking very seriously. I very much support the league’s desire to conduct a complete investigation and welcome the appointment of Ted Wells to lead the process. Competitive balance and the integrity of the game are the foundation of what makes our league so special and I have the utmost respect for those principles. Our organization will continue to cooperate throughout the league’s investigation. Meanwhile, our players, coaches and staff will continue to focus on our preparations for Super Bowl XLIX and the many challenges we face as we prepare for the Seattle Seahawks.”

    I SMELL a deal with the LEAGUE is a BREWING as they go through the motions
    of an investigation. This is a FARSE.

    1. Well, thank you Bob Kraft.

      Meanwhile, it seems like last week’s game was 19 years ago and there’s been no joy in football land all week.

    2. Poppycock….pure, unadulterated poppycock. Kraft is huge in the organization.

      “I very much support the league’s …..” BS…. Where did you say you have faith in YOUR team. He needed to come out before his hand was forced and let his team know no matter what the outcome he stands with them.

  74. Winter Storm Watches inland have not been upgraded or downgraded. Still in limbo. Surprised there isnt a Winter weather advisory for south of boston.

        1. OMG, I meant to tell you Vicki that the other day I was behind a car that had the license plate Tea42. I immediately thought of you and decided it is a sign of a big storm to come!

    1. I’ve been saying hydro all day Matt. It’s going to come in quicker and colder . Somthing should be posted for boston soon I think.

  76. Northern Parts of Fairfield and New Haven Counties in CT just upgraded from an advisory to a warning.
    I am curious why NWS out of Albany has not upgraded my county to warning considering those areas are south of me.
    5-8 inches for those areas and COULD be some power issues with that heavy wet snow.

    1. Hi JJ…I was listening to Michael Irvin talking about the Pats and thought of you. What a standup guy he seems to be. I know it is hard to judge from a short interview but his comments were so respectful.

      1. Michael Irvin part of the big three along with Emmit Smith and Troy Aikman when the Cowboys won 3 of 4 super
        bowls in the 90s. I am hoping they keep Dez Bryant and Demarco Murray since they are both free agents. If they keep
        them you may have a new big 3 in Romo Bryant and Murray

  78. How do we get freezing rain out of this setup ?

    And maybe we do, but if you buy that as a possibility, then you must be concerned at some point about some mild air intrusion aloft, which usually comes somewhere mid-storm, when precip is usually at its best.

    So, marginal temps, possible mid-level intrusion of mild air, quick moving storm … and so we’ll up the forecast snow accumulations ……… Ok, makes perfect sense to me (he says quite sarcastically).

    1. NWS has Boston at 1-4 inches. Presumably DUE to the shift in the 18Z NAM.
      No other reason that I can see.

      Which means TK’s 1-2 inch total is perfectly in play. 😀

  80. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8EC_CeCIAALBIi.png

    This county by county warning does NOT add up. NOT consistent with actual
    accumulation Zones. For example Norfolk County. You mean to tell me that some
    place like Holbrook or Randolph is in the 4-8 inch zone and Boston is in 1-4.

    This is PURE CRAP!

    Draw a freaking line why don’t you.

    1. That is a little higher than my idea but not that far off from it.

      Still not a huge fan of these models.

  82. Stepping aside from the snow for a second ….

    I’m a bit worried about this fairly decent astronomical high tide at 2pm tomorrow.

    Seems that the ramp-up of the storm’s winds are coinciding with the rising of the tide, along with a sharp pressure fall. I hope things arent too bad along the water tomorrow.

      1. Yes indeed. These astronomical high tides really take up the whole beach and come right up to the seawall and there isnt much room to work with.

  83. My guess you see that rain line just south iof boston now doesn’t mean we get 8 inches but it means ratios are low so not as much snow.

      1. That’s quite a slug of precipitation there.

        IF, and I do say IF, that yellow comes as SNOW, that
        is 1/4 mile visibility for sure.

  86. Latest accumulation map from NWS

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8EJPLACEAAGycP.jpg

    I’m Going to zoom it in:

    http://i.imgur.com/i3OOYUD.png

    That puts ALL of the Boston Neighborhoods just WEST of the Expressway
    in the 4-6 inch range. SAME range as parts of Norfolk County in the WARNING
    area. Parts Of Dorchester, Charlestown and East Boston are the only neighborhoods
    in the lesser zone.

    I’m sorry, but these guys just make NO SENSE at all to me.

    AND WHY does it say 1-4 inches in another product???????????????????????????????

    1. Even though Logan and say West Roxbury are both considered “Boston” and are in the same county, their weather is never the same. This causes issues when weather alerts are given by county. So many microclimates in eastern MA within a matter of a few miles

      1. Agree TOTALLY.
        Giving it by COUNTY is INSANITY!

        LUDICROUS!!!

        Draw lines of demarcation. Do it right. DO it by ZIP code.
        Anything is better than what they are doing.

          1. Well in the 508, expect 2-4 in exchanges:
            123,345,678
            and expect 4-6 in exhanges
            789 and 156

            etc etc

            OH, wait, TOO MUCH EFFORT

      2. NEVER the same in Winter or SUMMER.

        I’ve seen it 65 at Logan and 82 at my house.
        In Winter I’ve seen it 20 at my house and 40 at Logan.
        Snow at my house and RAIN at Logan and we could go on and on and on……

      1. He drew a line from coast southwest to the mid-RI/MA border. 2-4 below and 4-8 above and said Boston very close to 4

  89. It may be wishful thinking on my part, BUT it looks as though the 18Z GFS
    is a bit COLDER. 850 MB 0C line does NOT move as far North and West as previous runs, hopefully preserving more SNOW. Waiting for a couple of frames for the snow map to verify that. 😀

  90. I tweeted the nws several questions that just made no sense. First off they mentioned that they are leaning on euro ? Not sure how that’s possible based on maps.

    1. Wasn’t he the one who was saying numbers would go up? He makes as much sense as NWS putting 2-4″ in a winter storm warning zone

  97. Hello TK,
    Long time follower, I realize my comment will not be posted but I just wanted to say thank you for providing such a nice blog. I depend on forecasts for scheduling landscape jobs, crews and snow and ice management. I have found the most reliable info often comes from you and some of your commenters. Your no-frills-call-em-as-you-as-you-see-em-witty-AND-educational blogs are great. Thank you for all the time, effort, expertise and patience you put into this.

    An interesting tool I stumbled across and would like to share, you probably already have seen it before but worth sharing just in case. You would certainly garner more info from it than I. I just like the way it looks:

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-35.81,65.53,578

    By clicking on the word EARTH in the lower left corner you can adjust the overlays.

    Thanks again TK!
    -Ben

  100. Fox has boston at six. I cannot believe I am watching FOX. I am so ashamed :). They are reporting on a coyote attack and kill of German shepherd yesterday 1/2 mile from our house.

      1. Yep. We knew nothing about it but recorded at least 50 crows in our backyard circling and going nuts at same time.

  101. Snow totals for Boston:

    Eric (2-4″)
    Harvey (2-4″)
    Pete (2-4″)

    You can’t get any more consistent than that. I can’t recall all 3 mets with the exact same amounts…even those widespread all-snow scenarios usually have a couple inches either way.

  102. Harvey has 2-4 for boston saying most of the accumulation coming during second half of storm.

    1. Yes that’s the thing boston is riding that line and this can go either way. Like I’ve said today I realy believe boston is going to get a dumping with atleast six if not more.

  105. Very nice. I tell ya I would be worried if I was Seattle this is realy going to fire up the pats to another level. There going to prove they play by the rules .

      1. i do not think there will be any 12 inch amounts but if a strong enough ban comes through its totaly possible

  108. Tk say boston gets a good amount of snow tomorrow like myself and some others think on here will you be caught off guard as your holding you’re ground on the lower amounts for the city. Thank you .

    1. No, I would have fully expected to be completely wrong. In fact, it was my plan all along. 😉

  111. Just watched Eric Fisher on the CBS evening news, he showed a map with 3-6″ in Boston, AND said some places up to 10″ (even though 3-6 was the highest contour shown). Not saying he hypes, but what he said on our local news was different than on national TV.

    2. Talk to the news directors. They have to “adjust to match”.

      Also, with this a live spot?

      1. Good questions and good suggestion. I am a HUGE fan of Eric’s and find him to be complete, as accurate as any and sincere. He truly loves his job. IMHO he is an incredible addition to the BZ news team.

        1. I like him too, and yes i believe it was a live spot right at the beginning if the national news cast. It just took me by surprise his info was different.

    3. I really like Eric, too! I love his enthusiasm and his forecasts are generally favorable, considering New England weather!!!

  112. Yup that’s exactly what he said on bz radio driving home from work boston in the 3-6 zone. I’m just trying to understand why some think boston will not come in high .

    2. 1) in Boston, boundary layer (where you and I live) too borderline …..

      2) mid storm will get robbed of snow when air briefly above you in the column gets too mild.

      3) its a race btwn when the storm bombs, which will help cool the whole column for snow and how much precip is left in column. I’m going low for Boston because I dont think much will be left. It might be one moderate to heavy hour of snow, but I think it will be a very short duration window and thus, low amounts.

      I went with 1″ yesterday at Logan, ok ….. Maybe it gets to 2. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. I don’t know Vicki that’s what he said on the radio in positive he said that. Kind of weird.

    1. Fisher does not bounce around. I heard his radio feed which was taped around 4PM, and he was talking about the 3-6 outside the city at the time (since then he bumped it up slightly). But he certainly is not bouncing around.

      The statement above is not accurate nor is it fair.

      1. I’m positive tk that’s what he said. Ace heard it on a different outlet as well. It doesn’t matter we get what we get. I again like him but I have some question marks with him. Seems like a great guy.

            1. Sounds like you have a busy day tomorrow !

              I cant imagine what it must be like during an intense winter storm to keep, what I assume is a large area, clean and safe for all the people needing to get to the hospital.

              1. Lot of work Tom. It’s easier volume wise on weekends with certain areas than during the week. On weekends you can bypass certain areas where there is very little volume that you would not be able to do during the week. But there is always volume 24 7 and it’s vital to always keep main areas where patients, staff and the general public are passable during any size storm period. Safety is of the utmost importance always during any event weather or non weather. You keep up during than final cleanup at the end , and than the roofs need to be done as well. Lots of work Tom .

                1. I was amazed when we went to the Milford Dana on jan 9 that they had cleared the lot as well as they had. As I said then the only problem was they didnt do the handicap spots well which seemed odd. I remember thinking John would not like this

  114. It seems to me that to actually verify say, 8 to 10 inches of snow, we usually need to see a majority of the computer models forecasting 10 to 14 or 12 to 15, etc.

    So, it seems to me, for this storm, the majority of the models in the max zones are somewhere btwn 6 to 10, so with past experience, wouldnt one be thinking the max out of this is going to be like 3 to 6 or 4 to 7 ?

    THIS is going to be THE event where the majority of the models get it right ?????????

  115. Looks like we’ve got here is another “now-casting” event in Boston!
    Surprise, Surprise! 🙂
    I don’t envy our local meteorologists! If I remember correctly, wasn’t last winter was much of the same?

    2. I share similar ideas with a lot of your numbers Charlie !

      The only one I differ on is Lowell. My reason for differing is that Lowell is not particularly elevated like Worcester is.

  117. The RAP and HRRR, at the edge of their ranges, are coming in cold also. It’s a tricky forecast, but I would definitely add a little to my numbers from this morning. Maybe 4″ Boston. 3-4″ Providence. 7-8″ Worcester. Somewhere around Lowell may see a 9-10″ amount.

  119. Regardless of what fisher said I would say I like him second after Harvey as he puts a lot of work into his blogs. I would go with Pete 3rd as I also like Pete and Barry last of course that’s just my opinion.

      1. I don’t watch fox 25 no longer cause it’s past my bedtime lol. Although AJ was top notch. I also like Epstein and think he is great but was going with tv mets . I don’t like wbz news at all so never realy got into Barry .

      2. I’d rank fox behind me….just sayin’. I listened to at least a dozen repeated Wx reports tonight while watching two hours for a two second clip that they didn’t report as advertised.

  120. Haven’t been looking at weather today. My mother was hospitalized overnight in NH (Dartmouth Hitchcock) with severe pancreatitis. They’re very unsure about her prognosis at this point, given her age and severity of acute illness (GI system is completely shut down – all organs). So, I need to drive up tomorrow or Sunday. What is my best window in terms of driving tomorrow. I know Sunday looks good, but I might not be able to wait that long. Your comments will be much appreciated. They’re better than what I’m seeing in forecasts which is truly all over the place.

    2. Joshua, hoping for the best for your mom and sorry to hear about what she is going through.

      Going off of earlier posts, I think the precip could be in here early, early morning. I think 7am may have been mentioned.

      As always, I would defer to TK for a much more accurate assessment.

    3. Joshua sending my prayers and positive thoughts your way. Be safe. We will all be thinking of you and your mom.

    4. Thinking of you and hoping for the best for your mother.

      As far as driving, your best bet would be first thing in the morning or after things wind down in the evening. Anything in between would be risky.

    5. hung in there bud, Should not be bad until like 11am or so, and even then boston points south and east should not be that bad the entire day.

    6. So sorry to hear about your Mom, Josh! Will keep you and your Mom in my thoughts and prayers! Have a safe trip!!!

  121. NWS Boston

    THE OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY SOMEWHAT DICTATE THE ABILITY TO WARM /OR NOT/ AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALTER CURRENT THINKING IN WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINES ULTIMATELY LIE.

    1. I cant get over the SW wind. It looks funny, in relation to tomorrow’s weather.

      Every temp in CT is 30 – 35F.

      Good luck getting Logan down another 1F, at most 2F the rest of the night.

  123. Well, I better run out to the store now so I don’t have to deal in the morning. Enjoy the rest of the evening! Dream snow 🙂 ✳✳✳

  125. I am hoping for more than 2.5 inches which is the biggest total I have received with the little snow we had this winter.
    3-6 inches by our local mets here for my area. The NWS is going with 5-8 inches. I am hoping one of those heavy bands sets up shop over me.

  128. Looking at the latest information, I really think there are some issues with a lot of forecasts for this storm. The amounts may actually be alright. But to me it looks like this thing is bending further east. That’s a colder, drier solution. Less QPF, but more of it as snow. A thump of several (3-6) inches 4AM-12PM tomorrow, a mix line that reaches Boston but not much further from 12PM-2PM or so, and a little more snow on the backside, but less than what comes up front, probably just an inch or two. It really doesn’t change the numbers a whole lot other than I think max amounts may need to be pushed south/east. But the timing and the whole idea of most of the snow on the backside seems off to me.

  131. I also think this scenario will play out tomorrow ………

    Maybe during late morning thru early afternoon, an initial pulse of morning precip will have pushed thru and then things will somewhat lighten up. The rain/mix will make its furthest north and west approach, there’ll only be light snow on the northwest fringe and there’ll be “mass panic” about no snow.

    Sometime in the evening, a quick blast of snow comes thru with a good punch of wind and that will put down the majority of the snow.

    1-2 in Boston, 2-4 out in 128-495 and Worcester gets 5, maybe 6 inches.

    3. Excellent analysis Tom! I also tend to agree with you but not perhaps to the extent you describe. The initial burst will provide little accumulation and this is the period where temps are most marginal. However, i feel the low bombs out a bit sooner causing the precip to become heavy during a period where the column cools. My thinking remains the same. 4 in Boston to as much as 8 in localized areas of favorable banding just west, southwest and northwest of the city.

    4. Looking at short high res I disagree HRRR has some decent banding signatures from 9-12. I guess we shall tomorrow 🙂

      Joshua best wishes and so sorry you have to go through that.

  136. Thanks for the well wishes! Also, thanks for the advice on when to drive tomorrow. I think I’ll go late tomorrow (Sat evening). Right now my mother is in stable condition, in spite of a GI system (all associated organs) virtual shut down, with ileus, multiple gallstones, and severe pancreatitis the culprit. We’ll see how things unfold. I give her a fighting chance. She’s a tough, resilient woman.

    3. Joshua, sending prayers and positive thoughts your way. She can get through this. My mom had a very severe pancreatitis episode in the late summer of 2013. She stayed in the hospital for 5 weeks. The first few days were very bad and she could only have ice chips and IV fluids for 4 weeks, as the pancreas has to completely rest to make itself better. After those first few days, she slowly improved and is fine today. It is good that your Mom is in the hospital now where they can monitor her. From what they told us after my Mom arrived at the hospital, it is very important to get there right away for pancreatitis.

  138. Been out. Just checking in before bed.

    First, sorry to hear the news on your Mom Joshua. Hoping all goes well.

    re; Storm
    I am conflicted.

    I will say this. HRRR is dumping up to 3 inches per hour of snow tomorrow moring.

    WOW!

    We shall see.

  139. Morning. Took a peek out at 5:12 AM. I couldn’t believe the poor visibility.
    Got up and looked out the window where there is a street light near. Holy Shit!
    To borrow a phrase from Hadi, IT’s PUKING SNOW!!!

    Vis under 1/2 mile, probably 1/4 mile. Hardest I’ve seen it snow in awhile.

    Closing in on a very very quick inch on the ground already.

    Only looked at IMPRESSIVE RADAR so far. INTENSE SNOWS

    I’ll have to try and get more sleep later, but can’t at the moment. TOO WOUND UP!!!

    Saw a tweet from Ryan Mau about the Euro Ensshowing a bomb (35 of 50 members) and us getting CROAKED monday night/Tuesday. Will look into that.

    More coming.

  141. Good Morning!

    Newton = snowing, ground coated, and 32 degrees

    I think there are coastal Flood Advisories up.

  144. Snowing at a good clip in pembroke everything is covered and this area was to get it on the backside. Heading into the office big snow for boston I’m sticking with it 7.5 inches is what I’ll guess

  145. Wet snow mixing with sleet, about 1 inch here in north attleboro, very wet snow, I got a suspicion this will change to rain after about 8-9am

  146. Not to be outdone, Tuesday is now shaping up to be extremely interesting.
    WHITE GORILLA BEAST!!!!!!

    Here’s a preview

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2015012400&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096

    It’s out there, but that combined with BIG HIGH to the NORTH with REALLY COLD
    Arctic air funneling down with a NE wind over the 42 degree ocean will be a BIG snow maker. BIG! Today’s event may PALE in comparison.

    AROD was 100% correct to indicate yesterday to NOT give up on Tuesday!!

    STAY tuned.

  149. Good Morning Everyone!!!
    Snowing at moderate clip outside my window. I think I might have my biggest snowfall of the season with this storm system before it transitions to a Sloporama

  150. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    [555 am] 1.9 inches of snow so far at our office in Taunton. Appreciate any snowfall reports from your location.

  151. I can’t believe I am saying this….
    It’s SNOWING even HARDER now than when I got up.
    Unfreakin believable.

    Boston makes 6 inches even with Mix/Change.

  152. Your in one of those banding features and may end up with more snow than forecasted if that banding feature could hold for a while. I remember back with a storm February 2006 I was under one of those bands that extended down to Fairfield and in that band 20 -30 inches of snow fell where the rest of CT had less snow. I am not saying were going to get that amount of snow but don’t be surprised if there are pockets that get more snow than forecasted especially if banding features setup shop.

    1. That astounding!!!

      THat would mean about a 2 footer for Tuesday, albeit low water high ratio
      snow. Like 20:1 or higher.

  154. Looking over 6AM obs

    SNowing at Martha’s Vineyard,but raining on Nantucket.
    Snowing in Hyannis and Plymouth.

    Snowing in RI and Ct

    Raining at Kennedy in ny with Rain/snow mix at Laguardia.
    Raining at Islip and Mauntauk LI NY.

    PLENTY of SNOW to GO

  155. I told you guys, front end thump 🙂

    Mix line will make it to the Pike at least, a little farther than I thought last night, but I don’t know what’ll be left for moisture by then. Probably an inch or two here in Wrentham so far.

    1. Even Harvey last night wasn’t sure how much past “about” the Pike it would go.
      I think there is a chance Boston stays SNOW and if not, enough snow will
      have fallen anyway. 😀

  156. What’s the over and under time when NWS changes the advisory to Winter Storm Warning for Boston?????

  158. Look at this report TUNDERSNOW!

    Ralph’sWxEyes ‏@WeatherNut27 5m5 minutes ago
    @NWSNewYorkNY 6:00am. Norwalk CT Fairfield County. 6.0″ Snow total. 1.2″ in last hour. Thundersnow at the time.

  161. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 33s34 seconds ago
    The heaviest of the snow will occur this morning. Lighter precip once the mix/change occurs this PM. 1-2 more inches possible late day.

  162. That part of Fairfield County had an advisory while the northern part of that county is under a warning. Would not be surprised if some towns in the advisory area reach warning criteria especially if banding feature setup shop.

  163. Latest HRRR run indicates the following.

    Mix will commence in Boston around 10AM and last until 1-2PM.
    There “may” not be a total changeover and it may flip back and forth for awhile
    before going to ALL SNOW again with several hours of at least MODERATE SNOW.

    Will continue to monitor.

      1. I think that may be a radar problem OS. I guess the beam can’t see the precip right on top of it. It’s still snowing at a good clip at my house and I am on the western edge of the “hole.” It sure gives a new meaning to the term “Charlie hole” though 😀

          1. Me or OS? I think too early to call, but I would lean towards a graze, maybe a few inches of snow for the Cape/Islands and east coastal areas. The potential is huge though, ratios will be high, and if the Euro verifies it would be the storm of the season. Could also miss entirely though of course.

            1. Don’t think it is a graze.
              NAM fully supports it AND even the piece of shit GFS has it close enough to be mindful. CMC is close enough to be fearful as well.

          2. Hadi, I hope WxWatcher responds.

            BUT I’m getting a feeling about Tuesday.
            This is a blog and I am NOT making a forecast here at this time, however, I “could” see this one
            being an absolute Monster, perhaps of Historic proportions. I know that’s saying a lot, but for now we shall just monitor to see what evolves.

            This one is a REAL watcher. A REAL watcher.

  167. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    [7a] At our forecast office 4 NW of Taunton, MA we have 2.7″. How much snow do you have at your location? #SNEsnow

    Seeing reports of Snow just starting at some North Shore communities. Seems like
    it is slow to move North. Perhaps mix line will be equally SLOW OR even stall out
    and not get here????

  168. The Tuesday storm POTENTIAL is more interesting this morning than it was last night. I need to see a few more runs of the models before I hope aboard the storm train. I hope its one that affects all of SNE and I don’t get robbed with it just affecting eastern parts of SNE

    1. JJ You get robbed on Tuesday. Will be mostly an Eastern Event.
      Boston could get ROCKED by the next one.

  169. Extremely HEAVY Band of snow passing through RI at the present time.
    Not sure where it will end up or IF it stays together?

  170. Have a good 2 inches of wet snow.

    It is currently ……. Lightly snowing.

    Missed the front end dump, good call weatherwx.

    At least the mid-storm lull looks on schedule. 🙂 🙂

    1. I was waiting for you to joining the SNOW party.

      So, what do you think of your Snow predictions now? 😀

      1. Well …… Clearly Boston’s above 1-2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        But, I did have 2-4 128-495 and those havent busted, yet. 🙂 🙂

        Lets see how long this front end thump lasts, either by moving out quickly the next hour or two ….. Or …. By a change in precip type.

        But, yes, really missed the front end impact.

  171. This isn’t good, but it was expected.

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    [7a] ASOS reporting 2.5 mile visibility with rain in Westerly, RI (the far SW tip of RI along the coast)

    1. Tell me how we get ICE with temps at 32 or even a tad above?
      These guys are OUT OF THEIR MINDS!!!!!
      We “may” get sleet, but freezing rain? give me a break.

      1. They address in the a recent update ….

        That the mix line is proceeding northward from the south coast and Long Island quickly.

        1. I understand the line is advancing.
          I have NOT seen any reports of sleet and/or Freezing Rain. Where it has switched it has gone right over to rain.
          Can’t rule out the briefest period of sleet.

  173. I have not measured but clearly looking outside my window this is the biggest snowfall I have gotten this season so far.
    Radar estimating for my area 1-2 inch an hour snowfall rates. Snowing coming down at a good clip.

    2. We are still wet snow here.

      I’ll let you know if/when anything changes. 🙂

      Its very pretty out, the pine trees look great !!

  176. So far ratios are right at 10:1 or very close

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 11s11 seconds ago
    [710 am] Thanks Ryan! RT @ryanhanrahan: 3.4″ new snow in West Hartford with a liquid equivalent/core of 0.32″

    1. Thats awesome information !!! I cant remember seeing that directly reported often. Seems like we are always trying to figure out a ratio from what we are observing.

  177. From NWS

    LASTLY…MODELS ARE ALSO
    INDICATING A GOOD COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET-UP ON THE BACKSIDE SO
    HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MASS WHICH COULD SEE
    DESCENT SNOW AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

  178. I am seeing a lighter snow right now right near the Charlie hole on radar. I am close to 95 just north of the 295 interchange in N. Attleboro.

  180. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 59s60 seconds ago
    Thanks for the report! MT @taugust04: Things have switched here in Bristol, RI. 1.5″ on the ground. Mostly rain now.

  181. North. Son going to drive from south RI to framingham. Do you know how roads are in your area? Do you think he’d be wise to wait a bit or go now? Thanks so much

    1. It is picking up again here now. I would say he should wait until that mix line moves north. Haven’t been out but would imagine conditions aren’t great right now especially has he moves further north out of south RI.

  183. Winter Storm Blake as it is being called by CBS affiliate here in CT over acheiving in some parts of CT.
    The theme this year with the names musicians.

        2. Oh, Probably a window sometime between Noon and
          2PM or somewhere in there. BUT up this way, it may
          be tricky througout? We’re watching.

  185. Chris Lambert ‏@clamberton7 4m4 minutes ago
    Good morning gentlemen…2.5″ in Dedham. Great snowball/snowmen stuff. @pbouchardon7 @jreineron7

    jeff marshall ‏@emtjmarsh89 4m4 minutes ago
    @jreineron7 3 1/2 in. Fallen so far in #foxboro very slippery driving.

    1. Very generous measurement for Foxboro. I live near the Sharon – Foxboro line and i just measured 2.25″

    1. Not sure it does. Probably, but one never knows. It’s going to come
      to a screaching HALT some where near or just N&W of Boston.

  189. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 9s9 seconds ago
    RT @PeterK_J: 2.5″ snow/0.18″ precip/32F in #brighton

    Pete DeMarco ‏@outplowingsnow 12m12 minutes ago
    Uh guys, we got 3 in in Somerville already

    1. Not now. If it must take place, then around Noon-2PM.
      BUT keep in mind up this way, Framingham? Uxbridge? still could be Dicey the whole time. Going to be close.

  191. So, this will be a nice 3 to 4 or 5 inch front end dump.

    Way overexceeding my expectations.

    And part 2 later today still to come. That should be interesting to watch unfold !

    2. We have about 2 to 2.5 inches.

      But, I guess I was writing that incorporating a bit more accumulation before this tapers off in the next 2 hrs.

        1. Well, my wife is stressed to the max.

          Its my youngest daughter’s bday today, party is scheduled and all set for later.

          Hired a woman to perform as Elsa and my wife is panicked that she may not be able to get here.

  192. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    Thanks for that report! RT @MichaelLBurke: 1″ of snow in Fairhaven, MA. Currently raining with a temp of 36.

  193. New bands of heavier snow are now blossoming all over Northern Ri and NE Ct
    and into S. Central MA. ALL heading this way. LOOK for SNOW intensity to pick
    up even more fairly soon.

    Seriously, I said it before and I’ll repeat it. Boston gets to 6 inches before any
    changeover. 😀

    2. Your area looks like the jackpot on this front end dump. Boston area and a bit west and south.

      They are playing catchup north and west.

      1. Snowing HARD. Virtually NO wind. What wind there is, is
        drifting in from the East or Ne. When it started snowing it was blowing pretty good from the SW.

  197. Must be 2-3″ in Wrentham, very heavy band, maybe mixed with sleet, about to move through. 31 degrees.

  198. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 4m4 minutes ago
    Updates later today on the Monday night Tuesday storm. That storm has the potential to bring more snow to everybody including Cape Cod.

  199. Just woke up to a Winter Wonderland! I forgot how pretty things look when it snows! Anyone that has to travel, be safe out there!!!

  200. Snow mixed with some ice pellets and a few rain drops.

    It happened fast, visibility just jumped quickly.

    I’ll see if its a momentary thing or not.

    1. Nah, you’re going over to rain and are in the very brief transition zone.
      I HOPE this R/S line SLOWS DOWN it’s progress.

  201. Pouring snow in Woburn…already got more than I thought we would the whole storm. I am NOT a snow lover so I wish it wasn’t BUT it’s amazing how fast things can turn around in NE.

  203. I DON’T LIKE this.

    Temperature here is up to 33.1

    I think wind drifting in more from EAST than NorthEast.

  206. Cheer up OS !

    Your going to be at 4, maybe even 5 for this first batch.

    You’re still going to get more when the low bombs at passage later this afternoon.

    You may end up with 6,7 maybe 8 by storms end btwn the 2 batches of snow. 🙂 🙂

    1. Yes, quite possibly.

      I wish we had some colder air for this storm.

      BUT For this Winter, this is AWESOME!!!

      And Tuesday??? I’m wetting myself thinking about it. 😀

  209. Oh NO

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    [8a] Beginning to see a rain / snow mix here at the WFO 4 NW Taunton, MA

  210. Woops! I can confirm something other than snow falling in Sharon. That was a very quick flip. Its moving fast, expect this at ur doorstep very soon OS. Ended up with only 2.5″ of snow. Hopefully more later.

  212. All snow still in Wrentham with that impressive band, but it’s not much heavier, just bigger flakes, hence the stronger echoes. Might start changing over soon though if Taunton is mixing.

  213. Seeing backend of snow moving though central Ct.
    Honestly didn’t expect that.
    Hmmm

    THEN it looks like any changeover up here “may” correspond with a LULL
    period and when the precip picks back up it will be in the form of SNOW!!

    PERFECT.

  216. Old Salty its pretty much stopped where I am but not before 6 inches of snow fell.
    A lull and the thinking here is mix and then some snow on the backside.
    I may get robbed Tuesday but did not get robbed today and ended up with the high end of the snowfall accumulation predicted by our local mets here.

  217. Newton: Temp is 31, down 1 degree from this AM. Would expect to get to 34-35 by noon – 1 PM and then go back down.

    The worm has turned a little for Tues. Starting to hear TV mets who called for a miss, now hedging their bets a little.

  219. Mix in Wrentham now, looks like mostly sleet, a few flakes, and maybe a little freezing rain. Measured 3″

  220. Total HRRR snowfall from 6Am through 8PM.
    Does NOT include any that fell prior to 6Am which was at least 1 inch here
    and any that may fall after 8PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015012410/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png

    That’s 6-8 for Boston More to the North.

    Also, I checked the hourly Snow totals and it has BOSTON receiving SNOW every single hour. So it looks like the R/S line ends at Boston (pretty sharp) with Boston perhaps seeing an hour or 2 where it flips back and forth or has a mix, but other than that, it’s a SNOW event for Boston.

  222. Radar showing RAIN up to about Weymouth now. WOW!
    Did that EVER move fast.

    I think HRRR might have been wrong. We shall see.

    It had best STOP!!!

  223. Temp about steady here. 30.5. Snow light. 3.25 inch but a big fluff factor. Flakes big enough to stand on the heads of the ones beneath them

    This thing looks to be moving right along on radar

    1. Thanks North. Son was trying to get from S RI to here but said roads are very bad so turned around. Is it ice or rain there?

  227. My forecast is going according to plan although I had some timing issues. A good 4-8 inches of snow with 4 in boston and 8 in the west and northwest suburbs. Most of the accumulation would have fallen by the time things change over with “some” backside accumulation after the changeover. The changeover line has already pushed through southeastern new England including northern RI and along the I-95 corridor. Look for that line to advance to Boston within the next hour or two maximum before a small accumulation occurs later while the departing low bombs out.

    Next, our attention turns to the Tuesday period where enough buckle in the southern jet could allow for a major snowstorm for southern and eastern most New England. More on that later of course.

    1. Get that thing tracking further west so I get in on the action Tuesday. With that said I am happy with the 6 inches I got today
      and I said earlier in the week If one of the two storms threats delivers snow I will be happy.

  228. OS … To your radar observation above …

    I think the strips of precip in west Virginia and Virginia, those may be the ones to watch for enhancement, that will slide up with the passage of the bombing low.

    Definitely headed for a few to many hour precip tapering or lull.

  229. SLEET mixed in here, so I took a measurement.

    DISAPPOINTED. I only can measure 3.5 inches.
    Temp is 33.4 so there was “some” compaction, but it appear
    fairly fluffy even though wet.

    How to ruin a good time!!!!

  230. Jim Colman ‏@jcolman22 3m3 minutes ago
    @jreineron7 went from snow to rain within a minute in back bay.

  233. Vicki with the sudden change of events, that travel may be able to commence
    shortly. What’s it doing out there?

  234. It’s been pouring in Johnston for last hour just back to north and it’s mostly raining here also, right on schedule it seems

    1. 2 inchesbut thinking this will go down drain with additional 1-2 this evening, we got movie and dinner night at pat place

  237. When that bright yellow banding pushed through, I observed big, wet snow flakes mixing back in. They have since stopped again.

  238. I don’t think I have ever seen a R/S line move so quickly.

    It has met some resistance here. Still a mix.

  241. The changes to the forecast are regarding mostly what has already happened, which I guess makes it a HINDCAST. 😉

    I adjusted the amounts up about 1 inch and tilted things over to the east southeast. It’s a change, but not a huge change. The call yesterday was for 1-3 coast and 3-6 not too far inland. The ability to get the heaviest band at least into the region before the change adds to the totals in some areas.

    Anyway, best shot at the rest of this storm and upcoming weather on a new blog! Over 500 comments here – time to start over. 😉

  243. Looking at the radar, the backside is already in central mass? I am confused how are we going to get the backside snow? Is the precipitation off the mid atlantic coast is the one we r suppose to get later?

    1. You have to remember that radar might not be picking up snow since the precip could be to low to catch.

    2. If i were a betting man, i would say that piece slides south and east of the region later with the bulk missing us.

  244. One. It is now a light snow. Have about 2.6 inches of snow outside. I hope that rain/snow line moves up a bit, because i want the heavier snows up in my area, its been a relatively light to moderate snow, but nothing heavy as of yet.

    Storm early next week is going to go on out to sea. with maybe some snow showers/light snow south and east of boston. (mainly cape and the islands) Want to see more model agreement and i want to see it go a bit more to the west in track.

    1. we also need to remember that we need to see what this storm obviously does to the atmosphere before we can really start forecast for the second, we will get a better understanding late tonight/tomorrow.

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