Weekend Update #1

2:24AM

SUMMARY…
A weak low pressure area traversed southern New England on Friday with periods of snow. This low redeveloped off of Cape Cod later in the day and is in the process of deepening as it moves northward through the Gulf of Maine into the Maritime Provinces of Canada. It has dragged down very cold air from Canada and some additional light snow and blowing snow has been ongoing. The new low was a little too far out to bring significant snow back into eastern New England, as had been a possibility. But the real story for Saturday will be the cold and the wind. This wind will diminish tonight into Sunday as high pressure dominates, though cold air will hang on. Clouds will arrive later Sunday ahead of an advancing low pressure area from the Ohio Valley. This system will be infused with some Gulf of Mexico moisture and will bump into cold air in place over New England on Monday. This will bring snow to the region. The details are being determined, but a significant snow seems quite likely. The progressive nature of this system means it will be moving right along and out of here, setting the stage for a dry and very cold day on Tuesday. Temperatures will recover a little during Wednesday but another low pressure system will develop along a front that brings colder air back in by early Thursday, bringing another threat of snow later Thursday into Friday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in eastern MA and southeastern NH with sunshine elsewhere, then sun expanding northeastward. Areas of blowing snow. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +5, coldest interior valleys. Diminishing NW wind.
SUNDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 10. High 20 north, 30 south.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow or rain showers. Low 15. High 40.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late. Low 20. High 30.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow followed by late clearing. Low 25. High 30.

341 thoughts on “Weekend Update #1”

  1. Thanks TK.

    I commented at the end of the last blog that there has been a definite (continued) trend northward with the latest model runs. Oz Euro and CMC introduce mixing to NYC, the CT shoreline, and the south coast of MA while the UKMET even brings the storm right over SNE.

    Hopefully this trend does not continue.

    0z Euro snowmap still looks nice with 12″+ for most of SNE:
    http://i.imgur.com/jMm4xMi.png

    1. Saw that. I think if anybody gets introduced to mixing it will be the South Coast. Now inside 48 hours I’m ready to go into more detail. Tremendous supply of cold should push this thing south if anything.

  2. Euro temps are very cold. Mark I wouldn’t worry that high up north should keep it from moving any further north and is fueling plenty of cold. Also qpfnhas increased with 00z run. QPF up to .94 from yesterday’s .71

  3. Ryan Maue who work includes analysis of the models said it shifted a county north. Even with anthother shift we are still plenty time.

  4. Bernie Rayo tweet

    @AccuRayno: southern new england looks better and better…lots of 12″ amounts with this storm…back to bed.

      1. It’s a west to east system with coastal development just south of us. Just a different approach then we are used to. Nothing to be nervous about imo. You can the trough going negative which is good news. Nothing holding me back from going all in at this point. Widespread 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Fluff factor will be huge as well. I am watching for the negative tilt today and to see what QPF we are seeing.

  5. Wind Chill Advisory: Central and Western MA
    Wind Advisory: All Along the Coasts

    It is cold out people.

  6. Super Bowl Tickets

    Average To Date: $3,500
    Cheapest Available: $10,500
    Most Expensive Bought: $58,000+

  7. Have about 1 inch of new snow overnight. Steady, light snow currently ……. visibility around 1 mile.

    Ok, with the 00z runs, I’ll buy into a decent snowstorm Monday.

    1. Oh, I meant the current 00z runs that I’m looking at this morning. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I fell asleep last night pretty early and didnt even the see the 00z GFS around 11pm.

        1. Yes. I just wanted to make sure that with another set of model runs, that there wasnt a trend back south.

          But, all the 00z runs were very, very consistent in the track.

  8. Winter Storm Watches are up for late Sun into Mon.

    On another note, I am not so sure about these TV Met snow maps generally showing 6-12″ or 8-14″. I feel like there was more certainty further out with the last storm and a little less certainty with this one.

  9. I would never pay that amount for Super Bowl tickets even if the Cowboys were in it. I got the best seat in the house right at home to watch the big game.

  10. Its getting bright out at 6:30am on a cloudy morning.

    I think the sunrise is officially just before 7am at Logan, sunset is closing in on 5pm … Has anyone noticed the brightness until around 5:10 pm the last few evenings ….

    The sun is passing 30 degrees above the horizon at solar noon and tomorrow is Feb 1st, six weeks past the solstice.

    Baby steps 🙂 🙂

  11. NYC again is right on cusp, with that type of track they should get into the heavy snow but it will be a very close call.

    1. LOL. Mother Nature not being kind to those meteorologists.

      Insert 1 or 2 thousand feet in the column aloft of mild enough air and 10 inches of snow becomes 3 inches of snow and sleet.

  12. Another tough forecast for NYC. I was watching last night Lee Goldberg who is meteorologist at WABC in New York he had 6-12 inches of snow but said NYC could be closer to the six if that mix gets in there.

  13. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thanks for the Euro Snow map Mark. Very much appreciated.
    Hadi thanks for the GFS and NAM snow maps. Now I don’t have to post them. 😀

    All I can say is very very consistent, run to run with all models.

    That should scare us.

    Snowing lightly here with a ferocious wind and the temp at 11.3 brrr

  14. With the wind impossible to see or even guess how much snow we received overnight.
    “looks” like an inch or so. Any measurements out there?

    7Am obs at logan SNOW with vis .5 mile.

  15. Some of you may know this but my hobby is long distance radio listening (AM, FM, SW, etc). As a result I’ve become friends with some people in the industry (usually on the engineering side but also on the talent side too). One of my biggest gripes with radio is how they handle the weather forecasts. In just the last 20 minutes I heard 3 different forecasts for Monday on WBZ. Basically one with heavy snow, another with snow showers and a third that would lead you to believe Monday was a week away. On smaller stations where sometimes the programming is automated or budgets are on a shoe string this type of reporting can be forgiven but on a major 50kw blowtorch like WBZ it really gets my goat. Both NPR stations in Boston are guilty at times of the same thing. When I’ve mentioned to people in the industry they just kind of shake their head and basically say “No big deal…no one really pays attention to the weather on the radio anyway”…sad.

    1. Interesting and I totally agree. It’s been one of my gripes since I was a kid.
      It ALWAYS been that way. It’s a JOKE!

    2. Funny Keith as, like OS, I have never listened to radio weather for the same reason. They are right that no one listens but no excuse

  16. Curretn radar echoes across Eastern MA are shrinking rapidly.
    I guess that was about it. Close, but no cigar.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    It is 13 degrees in Sudbury – at least at 7:00. And it is cloudy – and Cold.

    In parts of Siberia, according to Underground weather it is lightly snowing and 31 degrees below zero. If it makes one feel better, we’re having a heat wave here! 🙂

  18. So at ratio of 13:1 even though I think it ends more like 15:1 we are looking at the range the NWS has of 10-15.

    1. If we get that warm tongue aloft, at least for a period, ratios could be closer
      to 10:1. I think NWS is averaging for the entire event.
      At times 15:1 and for a period 10:1, averaging to around 13:1

      Just just a theory on my part. Probably full of crap. 😀

  19. Latest NWS snow graphic, DOWN from earlier this morning? Don’t know why.
    I didn’t see anything that would make one lower it?????????

    http://i.imgur.com/LVF4F1j.jpg

    PS I had to enlarge it as graphic was too small to read. Resulted in some blurriness.
    Sorry.

  20. Here is an interesting tid bit from David Epstein:

    Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 30s31 seconds ago
    Snow weary? You have good reason. According to @NWSBoston this was snowiest 5-day period on record for Boston (29.7″) & Worcester (40.7″)

    1. That’s deceiving, because it’s by amount only.

      When it snowed for 100 hours in February 1969, THAT was a snowier period.

  21. I think we can just about lock in the storm for Monday. About an inch of QPF, on a 12:1 or so ratio, provides a good 10-14″ of snow, just as the NWS has. Still time for forecast changes though. I think the north trend is about done, but if it continues we would have to watch for potential mixing even up towards Boston. But I find that unlikely, if anything I still think it would shift back a little south.

  22. Thanks TK! Heading down to Nantasket Beach to cheer on my insane coworkers that are jumping in the ocean for charity. I am shivering just thinking about it. I prefer to be a spectator and hold their towels and flasks.

  23. Ok folks. Yesterday I ranted about #’s being too early. And I will almost sound like a hypocrite talking about numbers just hours after I said it was not a good idea, BUT we’re inside 48 hours. So it’s time for a first broad range guess from the Monday system, and it will indeed be a Monday system, all falling within the calendar day for just about all of the region, if not all of it. We’ll have to watch for a sneaky early start pre-midnight in some southwestern areas.

    4-8 inches north of the Mass Pike…
    8-14 inches from the Mass Pike south…
    except 4-8 immediate South Coast due to sleet mixing in there.

    Important to note that there will probably again be a sharp cut off on the north side of the precipitation as not only will the air mass this thing is bumping into is very cold but also extremely dry. This system is a smaller version of the “big one” that didn’t show up several years back. Eastward moving monster then, not so much a monster this time, but a whole lot of dry air to the north ended up turning 1 to 2 feet into 1 to 2 inches for a good part of southern and central New England. I had chopped my accumulation forecast in half from what most people were saying (they were 8-16 or in that ballpark, I was 4-8 for the Boston area and STILL should have quartered that).

    So as important as it is to watch for a South Coast mix, it will be important to watch for the dry northern edge.

    1. Great discussion and thank you. Some good points in there.
      And through it all, 8-14 inches. That’s bold for you.

      Ok, a foot of snow generally is no big deal, but on TOP of what we have, well
      It’s going to present problems, most especially in the City. Roads were barely
      passable (in some cases not) after the Blizzard. I am concerned about
      getting around in the City after this one.

      TK your thoughts on any possibility the mix line gets up to Boston?

      1. I don’t think the mix line ever gets close to Boston on this one. If this goes any way, it ends up a bit more to the south.

  24. Alright. A friend of mine just pointed out that Ch 5 is again posting model forecasts on their social media pages. This particular one shows “what one computer model is forecasting” and has a small label saying “European Model Forecast”. The first frame starts at “3PM Sunday” and obviously was posted from a run yesterday that had some snow (2.4″) forecast for Boston through the end of the current event, BEFORE the Monday system arrives. Many of us here or a forecaster would be able to figure that out and know to advance the slide show to get to the forecast for the next system, but you cannot expect the casual reader to know this. I copied one comment from a reader, who obviously saw panel #1 and took it as the forecast for Monday…

    “Well it doesn’t look that bad for the Boston area….2.4…inches is nothing compared to 20.”

    I REST MY CASE.

      1. Exactly. BUT they need to help these people to understand what they are putting on their pages.

        1. OF COURSE. Not disagreeing. AGREE totally.
          AS much the problem is the ones putting out the graphic, it is the audience. 😀

          1. Oh I know. A lot of people don’t use common sense, but since that isn’t going to happen anytime soon, I figure we can start the process of better information understanding by having the media do a better job communicating it. 🙂

              1. I don’t know, but I couldn’t hold back, though I tempered my delivery I gave a very long reply on Ch 5’s FB page. 😉

                It’s under my personal FB, not my WHW one.

                WHW is there for information. Any editorials appear on that page alone, but not delivered by it to other outlets. 🙂 For those I will use my own account. 😀

  25. This wind sucks. Have to keep going it to shovel as it blows and covers the stairs, walkway. , and driveway

    1. I love wind. Was awesome watching the blowing snow overnight while driving. 🙂

      It will slacken later today.

        1. I drove around the lake in Wakefield about 1AM and it was amazing. It looked like the lake was the plains of North Dakota and there was a ground blizzard going on. There were drifts of snow up to 1 foot across the road that borders the lake.

    2. I get what you’re saying about the wind – this time it’s working for me blowing the snow off the porch, sidewalk and driveway! I feel for though!!! It doesn’t always work in my favor. I had to contend with a 6′ snow drift in my driveway after the blizzard!!!
      It’s really slippery out there this morning, so stay safe and be careful walking and driving!

  26. I think Dave missed the prime snow growth region known as 500-700mb?? That is one the reasons I don’t like the instaweather maps snow tool. It makes no accommodation for 500-700mb temps, relative moisture and potential evaporation.

  27. A bit of forecasting irony: If the NAO were negative, the Monday storm would probably be going out to sea south of us.

  28. Lots of dry air north and west which concerns me.

    Generally I am going 7-11″ along and south of the pike. 4-7″ north of there. Where is the western and northern cutoff.? If we get some cold air to usher in faster and it does not create rapid mid level drying we may be able to boost the top end in with some dry fluffy snow on top. Not in love with ratios prior to that south and east which will keep accumulations down a bit. Mid Levels warmer than I was thinking 18 hours ago.

    1. Should have mentioned 3-7″ immediate south coast. Generally with storms I don’t like ranges more than 2-3″ and I will tighten at 24 hours, hopefully….

    1. Around what time does the heavy precip shut-off Monday? I’m hoping to be able to get out and shovel Monday night- have an important appointment early Tuesday Morning.

      1. It’s hard to say this far out, but looking at NAM simulated radar reflectivity, I’d say the heavier accumulating stuff ends somewhere in the 5-7 PM area give or take. Totally shuts off
        by about 10PM. Again this is estimated based on only one
        model. Guideline only, NOT absolute.

  29. TK, I’m with you on how beautiful it is today and was late last night. It looks and feels like the tundra. I ran this morning at around 6:45am as it was getting light out and I must say nothing beats a jog in this kind of weather. We didn’t have much snow last night, but the drifts on the path from the fresh snow were up to 8 inches deep. There was still tremendous blowing and drifting while I was running. The cold was quite bearable., but had a nice bite to it.

    I think Monday’s event will turn out lighter than expected. Dry air and chomping will do a number on this storm. I’m going with 4-8 for Boston and adjacent suburbs, 2-4 points north and west, 8-12 as you head down route 3 (Hingham to Kingston).

      1. Now that makes sense. And when we factor in it is tracking it too far north and with a little too much precip, then it’s not all that bad. 🙂

  30. My early guess would be 12″ for Logan. My only concern was that this would slip south of us. Now that that appears unlikely, I think we’re set for a solid storm. Max amount of probably 15″‘or so somewhere along or just south of the Pike.

  31. There seems to be a lot of hesitation buying into this storm on Monday. Although there are some valid concerns about the cold dry air to the north I think we are overplaying that factor. There is a tendency for many here to have a conservative bias which I’m fine with but I think we may be underplaying the potential amounts with this one.

      1. I think the hesitation comes because of dry air eating, just like our last storm. Sharp cut off. Big bust potential especially north and west.

        I like TK’s style of adjusting totals up if need be. Causes less panic.

  32. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
    Chances high for significant snowfall Monday. Some towns should top of a foot. Looking at one of the snowiest stretches in history.

    1. He should say RECORDED history. I am willing to wager during the many nice ages we have had – and are yet to come – this record has been smashed.

    1. Ouch. Sorry to hear that. Anything we can do the help when we do post
      them. It must vary so much depending on the map.

      I “may” be able to make one with Various shadings of gray. Not sure what
      that would do for you. Let us know.

      Thanks

        1. Grays do help. The worst ones are channel 7 where they love to put purples and blues next to each other. I have most of it under control, you just learn to deal, it’s an insignificant deficit compared to what some others have to deal with. Thanks guys!

  33. There is a very reasonable chance that this next storm pushes Boston to Above Average Snowfall for this Winter. 😀

    1. That’s reasonable.. 6-12+ is a broad range, but it lets you know it will require plowing, but may not be a huge event.

      Hoping for the 12+ personally!

  34. And now for a break from the weather…sort of.

    I HAD to share this with you all. Going through my personal email to catch up this morning, when in my junk mail folder I see a message from one of those matching web sites that informs me: “Juno is checking you out right now!” I’m glad that the Winter storm had time to check me out while she was visiting the region, seeing how the email was dated January 26. 😉

    Sorry Juno, I’m not available. 😛

  35. After this storm, I’m guessing there will be a total of around 2″ melted, give or take a bit, sitting on the ground.

    Any general takes on whether the following weeks will offer ….. no melt, slow melt, quick melt, quick melt with rain, or a continued deepening of the snow pack.

  36. Well, GFS a bit further north if anything.

    Doesn’t fit the idea of so much dense cold air to the north.

    Think it’s too far north. Throwing out a guess of 50 miles too far north.

    1. At the surface anyway, even this milder solution is cold. 0c isotherm down by Cape on lows closest pass.

      I think that’s another sign that the track is too far north, and thus the projected mild air intrusion aloft is as well.

  37. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago
    Original idea was low track to SE Ohio, reform off Delmarva
    Current same in front, reform mouth of Del bay. GFS too far north there IMO

  38. Brett Anderson tweet.

    @BrettAWX: Latest GFS tries to warm the surface too much over the interior NE, east of the Appalachians. What it shows does not make sense.

  39. TK should like this one: 😀 😀

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 15m15 minutes ago Massachusetts, USA
    trying different guidance for new #NECN Monday snowfall graphic. All have 12-18″ SNE, GFS & NAM have 18+ Like last storm, it’s ‘fluffy’

    1. And thanks to the wonderful world of social media (which can be great and detrimental all at once) we have so much conflicting info. So here now because one run of one model has a further north track and milder solution, it becomes “official”. Wow. 🙂

      1. the changes in direction are often quicker than a weathervane in a tornado, but it does make for interesting action… but after a while you get to learn the biases/tendencies (good and bad) of everyone

    1. CMC would simply introduce a couple of hours of sleet into the mix.
      Still a pretty good thumping. It would just make removal more difficult.

  40. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    Also w/ potential wintry-mix for S-shore areas of #SNE, lesser snowfall totals. Full fcst update @ 4 pm today.
    0 replies 1 retweet 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite
    More
    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    Still evaluating fcst guidance, but can’t rule out potential wintry-mix for S-shore areas of #SNE. Consensus blend preferred.

  41. Another thought ….

    I thing the storms pressures look lower on latest models. GFS really bombs it just pass us.

    Perhaps that implies the most recent model runs think more phasing and thus, with that, the low will be yanked further north ??????

  42. I still think once this storm passes Boston will be close to if not be above average for snowfall for an entire winter season.

  43. For those rooting for big snow, I think this most recent couple of runs should bring a big smile. Maybe a trend towards a stronger storm, that isn’t going to get suppressed south at the last minute, but a lot of cold dense air to the north that’s going to hold the fort over southern New England. I’m sensing we’re headed for the higher amts in the ranges seen on the blog and TV this morning.

    1. I’m ASCARED!

      I’m telling you right here, Boston CANNOT deal with another Foot of
      snow right now. CANNOT. You will be seeing many news stories about
      gridlocked traffic, massive delays and more.

      When school opens, the buses will not be able to make it down many streets.

      A NIGHTMARE is about to visit our fair City.

      1. They have been setting up melters around the city. There are not as many snow farms as there once was so not many options .

  44. I am rooting for the higher totals
    Took a quick look at 12z GFS looks like about a week from this coming Monday another round of accumulating snow.

  45. I’ll take the storm a week from Monday. I have a work presentation Feb 9th and would love to get out of it!!

  46. Not buying the GFS mix/sleet/rain story. If anything, the movement of the Low north will produce more snow (heavier, too) in the Boston area than initial estimates. The storm will be encountering cold air to start the storm and very cold air to end the storm. Perhaps in the middle there will be lower ratio’s and heavier snow, but I still think all snow in Boston and even down most of the coast, with mixing confined to parts of the Cape and Islands. Can’t say I’m rooting for a major storm, but recent runs suggest a major storm is possible.

    1. I think some of the northward movement on recent model runs will be tempered a little on future runs. Can’t see it changing much.

  47. That makes no sense to me. Were not even sure completely with this storm is going to do and your going on tv talking about another snow threat way out there in future.

    1. For the benefit of this met, I will say it was an errant comment. I think it will be a little difficult just to get amounts right for the coming storm.

  48. 12z EURO follows suit with 2 common themes seen very recently.

    A bit further north with track and low really continues to strengthen as it passes us.

  49. Amen Matt Noyes! Let’s not over-analyze this thing, its coming and we’re gonna get a foot.

    “Sunday night midnight to Monday afternoon snow is quickly becoming a high forecastability event. American NAM guidance has come in as a close match to the European guidance posted earlier. High forecastability is different from high predictability. The former comes when there’s good agreement in guidance – is it easy to make a forecast. The latter is determined by how well you did after the event is over – was it predictable or unpredictable? Nonetheless, more often than not, a highly forecastable event becomes a highly predictable event. I guess what I’m saying is, shovels ready!”

  50. 12z Euro appears to be the furthest south of the main 12z guidance. It looked like it was going to sail straight NW of us, but the coastal developed and scooted out south of Nantucket. All snow even to the South Coast and NYC. The CMC is pretty close to that but looks stronger/juicier, probably too much so. UKMET remains farthest north, and would likely introduce mixing at least to Boston. The GFS is close to that solution but a little further south. Blend it all and you basically get the NAM, which I would say is my model of choice now. I don’t think Boston ever mixes. 10-14″ for most.

  51. If you blend the 12z ECMWF/NAM/GFS QPF at Boston you get an average of 1″ melted. Just under 0.9 from ECMWF just under 1.0 from the NAM and about 1.25 from the GFS.

    GFS runs into critical thickness issues as it rises into the low to mid 540’s where as the NAM and ECMWF are almost exact in the mid 530’s, with maybe the NAM just a bit colder. All models show some warming at through 700mb.

    It will be interesting to see how some handle this as the ECMWF produces the least QPF and the GFS the most and there are those who chase the most QPF and they may blend the GFS Q with NAM T’s to get their perfect outcome!

    I don’t think you are going to get the 15-20:1 that some were talking about at Boston. A matter fact during the daytime hours on Monday where the best snowfall rates will occur you are going to be closer to 10-12:1 than 15:1 or better.

    What does all this mean? Blend the 3 primary 12z models you have an 1″ of water and climo LER. Do the math. About a foot. That could be 9″ that could be 14″ The trick with this storm is still going to be where does the rapid precip drop off takes place and does a bit more warmth sneak in than anticipated? The warmth will impact accumulations south of Brockton / Taunton and the cut off of precip will be somewhere along or west of Massachusetts CT Rvr Valley, so not impacting / benefiting the areas where most people live who read this WHW. But I don’t think this is too tough a forecast for SNE, of course subject to massive miss upon reflection the day after….

  52. TWC calling this storm Linus
    WFSB our CBS station naming this storm Darius. The theme this year musical artists.
    For a storm to be named by our CBS station 6 or more inches of snow must fall or 1/4 icing or greater. This has been going on since the early 70s.

  53. Bernie Rayno Tweet
    here is what you want for new england. notice the neg trof Mon eve..this was concern all wk. lets see if it happens

  54. 10-15 inches of snow from the NH border to include Worcester, Boston south to Brockton. Less to the northwest and southeast. I do not believe the mixing line makes it to Boston.

  55. Model Super Bowl Predictions (hot off the presses)

    NAM : Patriots : 115. Seahawks : 112. Scout : The NAM is fantasy football’s favorite.

    GFS (submitted 4 days of predictions)

    Wednesday : Patriots : 42. Seahawks : 3

    Thursday : Seahawks : 37. Patriots : 6

    Friday : Patriots : 31. Seahawks : 10

    Saturday : Jaguars : 20. Buccaneers : 17. Scouts take : An upgrade needed here.

    EURO : Patriots : 27. Seahawks : 20. Scouts take : a New England fan would have fealt better about this prediction last year.

  56. OS. Saw your comment re boston streets. I had asked the other day if the streets are worse in Boston than usual or if this is what it is when we have such a huge storm. I apologize if you answered and I missed it.

    1. Vicki – I can give you my opinion. I’ve lived in the South End for 4 years now. Before then I lived on Beacon Hill and in the Fenway.

      In my 12 years here, I have never seen the roads and sidewalks quite so terrible. I can’t quite pinpoint what it is, but the side streets are just a mess. Perhaps in the past we’ve had a warm up to help with melting? Maybe snow removal operations have changed with our new Mayor? People have definitely been more complacent about shoveling their cars out on this street this go around as well.

      Any way you slice it, it’s BAD!

      1. Thank you DS. From listening to those here and my son it seemed that way. I know there was a hiring freeze which IMHO is foolish across the board but I wouldn’t think that would cause the problem. With cars off the street, I don’t understand why.

  57. 18Z NAm is in and it also has moved North. At this point I don’t think we can
    toss the North trend.

    Other than that change, snow totals remain “about” the same up here, dropping off South of the City, due to ratios and even mixing.

    Here’s the map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066

    850MB 0C closest to Boston

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015013118&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048

  58. It will be plenty cold. I wouldn’t worry any northward trend not going to impact may areas and I bet it cb ages tomorrow.

    1. Even if it mixes/changes to sleet for awhile, it will cut down a bit on
      total accumulations, but actually make the Storm WORSE.

      It’s going to be really bad no matter how you slice it and dice it.

  59. Recent NWS discussion:

    THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
    AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR TO THE MA PIKE…RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY SNOW…EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
    NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
    CORRIDOR…BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

    REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS…MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING. GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW…COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS. BULK OF SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

  60. One thing about all this, it adds to the density of the snow …..

    It always amazes me the size of a snow pile from 6 inches of wet snow (huge) vs the size of a snow pile from 6 inches of dry snow (tiny).

    1. https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com
      1. mixing area not a line but area. in southeast mass I think boston could see some mixing but not much before it goes back area in purple circle is very up in the air, could go either way.
      2 it will not be as high of a snow ratio south and east of boston, it would be towards the heavier side as areas to the north and west will see lighter snows.
      3. frontal passage mid week will rise the temps for 1 day but not by much.

  61. Very interesting discussion from NWS office Upton NY

    SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY SHOWING THIS N/S TRACK UNCERTAINTY
    IN THE 00Z GEFS/CMCE/ECMWF ENSEMBLES…WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN
    DEGREE OF PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH MONTANA AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US…AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING. A STRONGER TROUGH…MEANING MORE UPSTREAM RIDGING…AND A FURTHER NORTH TRACK. THIS INTERACTION IS NOT COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS…SO COULD TAKE UNTIL THEN FOR CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE FORECAST INCREASES.

    1. I believe the answer lies in your previous post.

      The SREF must have more phasing and takes everything further north.

  62. There is enough crap going on to give one pause about the big snow accumulation forecasts. It’s NEVER simple, is it?

  63. I think today’s model runs secures Boston, probably 30 miles north and 30 miles south in the max snow area. I guess I’m in full agreement with Taunton’s current snow map.

    The reason : The idea of a lot of cold, dense air to our north, that things will end up just a bit further south than being shown. I still think that will happen. But now, there’s room for that to happen, while still keeping Boston to the mass/NH border in max snow. I dont think that wiggle room was there yesterday, but it certainly is now.

  64. If we anoint GFS as the king, we’re in trouble as far as snow is concerned for Boston and points south. GFS model suggests much higher amounts of snow in Northern New England than any other model, which could only mean a SE wind and the Low tracking over Boston or just to our south. That doesn’t make sense to me, but of course could happen. If it does, I think the snow totals should be adjusted WAY down for Boston. I mean so far down that it would take Boston into winter weather advisory land (< 6 inches). Two reasons: 1. Mix and even plain rain would happen at a certain point, perhaps during the heaviest part of the storm in terms of precipitation; 2. The ratio would be way down when it does snow.

    I'm concerned. Not because I want a ton of snow, but a mixed bag with a hard freeze after will be really difficult to contend with.

  65. Again I really think we don’t have to worry about anything here in Boston. The south coast up to Taunton probably will.

    1. Yup, without the northern shift today, I think there would have been some disappointment from Boston points north to what would have happened Monday.

      This is a GOOD trend that has happened today, if your rooting for a lot of snow for Boston and areas north to the NH border.

  66. I mean, if we look at the SREF, does anyone really think Burlington, VT is going to get dumped on and that its going to snow all the way to Montreal, Canada ???

  67. Hi All,

    Been distracted for a couple of days. Now I can get back to the models. But first…….

    Needed to figure out how to rid the Patriots of those Giants S.B. losses and the POTENTIAL lingering curse. So, who could be up to the task of exorcising it?……. (I spent the past two nights, verrrrryy late making him) Now we’re a lock to win!

  68. I HATE the term King for just about anything or anyone. Particularly a weather model. It is about applying meteorology to model output when combine with current climatic set up, probable trends within the atmosphere, and forecasting a sensible weather outcome.

    It is the belief in “King Euro” that just caused embarrassment for some forecasters in the NYC area less than week ago. The GFS is no King, it has just had more consistent sensible outcomes in recent months. I do think the GFS is too far North but the trend of warmer mid-levels does have some merit. I would be still more concerned about the dry air to the north-northwest eating at this thing and even more worrisome that generally these west to east systems under-perform in terms of QPF, then any real northward push that changes this thing to a mix North of a Providence Brockton Taunton Line.

  69. Barry Burbank has a 10-15″ swath that has moved itself north to the point where I do not think it includes the City.

        1. So it begins. The backing off from the big storm. he he he

          I’m not ready just yet.

          Really cold dome of Arctic air over us and to the North.
          Should count for something here.

  70. I agree with JMA 100% on what the concerns should be. Was just about to type out something similar. I really do not generally love W/E setups like this just simply based on living in New England for my whole life and experiencing them. Lots of bust potential on the high end totals being widespread in the teens. Because I’m only a hack, I can’t tell you why to the degree JMA/TK can. That said, I do think this is largely an over running event more than a traditional “storm”. And because of the cold, I think the totals will be respectable when put into context (IE: we can’t possibly use last week as the benchmark for satisfying our desire for big totals)

    I feel pretty good about 10-12 from Worcester to Boston and wouldn’t worry about mixing too much per JMA. Boston may flirt with it but in the end, I don’t think it would be significant. Anything more is bonus IMO. (The 18z NAM would be sweet)

  71. I seem to recall we had a fairly large storm forecast not long after the feb 9 2013 storm. Did it materialize ?

  72. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 4m4 minutes ago
    I’m basically keeping snowfall map as was this AM. Awaiting evening model run to see if warm 4cast further north.

      1. Root for colder, or it’ll be 4-8 inches of waterlogged snow that won’t blow off of anything.

  73. I disagree about the warming it’s just not gonna happen up this way. Barry can cut his totals all he wants.

  74. Looks like I might be getting the jackpot totals from this one up in central NH. You can’t just toss the trend completely. I’m a little surprised Barry shifted his map like he did, but maybe he’s trying to get in front of the trend now. It seems like we’ve been stuck playing catch-up with this storm, maybe making significant cuts to the numbers near Boston and shifting higher totals north is the way to go. I’m not all in on the far north track, but it’s looking more likely.

  75. So, we’ve come full circle. Remember the forecasts for this storm about 5 days ago? I think that last Tuesday Barry said Boston would hit 40 and there would be a mix. That may happen with the track of the Low pretty much over Boston or at best the Cape Cod canal. This storm looks like it may be an inside runner or coastal hugger. Wow! Talk about a change in the forecast. From the surface temps I see a huge contrast between coastal/south and north/interior. Not good for Boston. In fact, I think at this point it barely snows at all Monday in Boston, except in the wee hours of the morning. It’s going to be a BIG mess Monday evening for everyone, and then a hard freeze.

    1. You may be correct Joshua ….

      I’m thinking the opposite.

      I’m struggling to get from the idea that it will be in the mid teens Sunday night …. the wind, which will be backing …. from NW to N tomorrow …. a piece of polar or arctic high pressure bridging to our north …. all of this snow cover …. …..with that, how less dense, milder air is going to push so easily into southern New England atbthe surface. I just am struggling to believe that scenario. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  76. Regardless of what ends up happening, this storm would have to be exhibit A proof for many saying that snowfall maps too far out in advance of a storm are useless.

    1. Absolutely. The maps shown on Friday evening were way too early. I was honestly surprised to see them, and it takes a lot for the media to surprise me the way it is now. Everyone in the state still expects a foot of snow. Imagine their surprise if Monday ends up 36 degrees and raining.

  77. Tom, I do agree that given the cold air that surrounds us, the snow-pack, etc … a mix/rain scenario would seem out of the question. Hence, Brett Anderson’s statement that the models “aren’t making sense.” However, we’ve seen how Lows that track over us can bring in abundant mild air to temporarily displace the cold air. All along, I was thinking the Low would track well south of us. But, from my reading of the current models that would appear not to be the case.

    1. I believe it’s because of the recent cold and new snow pack, the baroclinic zone is offshore. Storm will edge back south a little IMO.

  78. West-to-Easters are very, very difficult to forecast, just in case you didn’t know. 🙂

  79. You gotta be careful with guidance. At one point the Thursday threat was a big coastal bomb, then an inside runner, then out to sea, and now it looks like a cold frontal passage….on Wednesday. 😛

    1. No matter what, I think 6″ for Boston is a lock. With all that cold air out in front, there’s no way that can be avoided unless this really becomes an inside runner. It’s what happens beyond those opening 6″ that is so hard to predict. It could be another 6″, or it could be a load of sleet, freezing rain, and rain, which would all freeze up very quickly on the backside. I feel for you and the plow guys though John, I know you guys had been itching for snow all winter but now this is way too much too fast.

  80. I’m not sure things change as much as Barry and others are thinking. Just look at the last storm. Some of us were getting a little nervous if the 30″ amts were going to workout and then things panned out. I think even if the models continue a warm trend the Low will end up further south. Stay the course. I rather fluff then 4 or 8″ of concrete.

    1. Agree with you. Definitely rather have fluff than concrete snow, glop, and rain. Walking through that with all the snow we have is MUCH worse just snow or ice. Driving through it is bad, too. Flooding, pooling, drainage problems, then a hard freeze. We’ll see.

      I have time to time my visits up north (hospital) around the storms and my work so I am following these events more closely than I would. Northward trend of storm would make driving up north far worse as I am sure it will be all snow once you hit Concord, NH.

  81. FYI: The snow cover and cold air in place rule does not always work out. Need a stronger high to the north than we may end up with. Jury still out as far as I’m concerned.

  82. Hello. Here I sit in Pascoag RI at a home poker
    Game. MRS OS is playing. I AM not.
    Don’t gamble any more.

    I HAVE the tv and my android and WHW

    Reading posts.

    I’LL comment more after 0z runs.

    All I can say now is that I am on notice.

    IF THE Nam comes farther NOrth
    I MIGHT be ready to jump ship ship.

  83. Boston Buoy temp = 40.5F

    With all the cold air-temps that we have had you would think by now those water temps would be at least in the upper 30s by now. It will be interesting if they lower any more in the coming weeks.

  84. Just saw a tweet from david epstein.
    Latest RPM has come North!!!

    Thats another model

    Prediction.

    Nam follows suit. We shall see.

  85. Someone should put an end to mets’ tweets. Many of the tweets are laughable in hindsight. But more importantly, useless bits of information. Yesterday Tim Kelley declared in a tweet that the Monday storm would feature energy from every source in the universe, and we would get an inch of snow an hour for 18 hours. Before the blizzard, tweets came in talking of “historic snow-fall in NYC imminent,” and “someone’s going to get 50 inches from this storm.” This stuff is laughable, ridiculous, and utterly useless. I’m convinced that Twitter is a social medium that makes people lazy. They feel they can write any darn thing they want because hey there’s a captive audience that doesn’t care much for nuance.

    1. YES.

      If you are going to use a bullet statement tweet then use one that isn’t a load of bullcrap or just a line to get people excited.

  86. Maybe will get a surprise and the low will shift a little further south at the last minute like last week’s blizzard shifted 100 miles further east.

  87. Nam looks good so fsr. Instant weather maps
    Wont work on my android. Have to use
    Ncep which id slower and does not have
    Snow map

  88. 00z NAM at hr 39 already has several inches of snow down to or just south of Plymouth.

    Low came into western PA and hit a wall. Similar low pressures just south of Long Island.

    Cold storm …..

    1. Yes indeed …….

      A bit of a weaker storm and maybe slightly less QP.

      But cold …….. I think its always been a cold scenario.

        1. Over the next 24 hrs, that (amt of precip) might be the trend to keep the biggest eye on.

          Usually, then NAM is escalating its QPF as a storm gets close.

  89. Nam looks great. Forces redevelopment
    Off jersey coast. Moves underneath us
    And takes the turn se of cape while
    Keeping heavy snow in here.

    Could someone please post a snowmap?
    Tx

    I was waiting for this.

    This time I think gfs follows the nam

  90. I prefer to let the model silliness play itself out and just try to forecast the weather. That said, I’m not making any changes at this time to the forecast posted above. We’ll leave the colder scenario in play for now and the broad ranges intact as well and update tomorrow morning with a new blog post.

    Going mobile (yes, to your hill WeatherWiz). I’ll check in from there. 🙂

  91. Was just outside for a bit. Can’t get to chairs on deck so just stood and took deep breaths. Air smells so nice and wind feels invigorating. My guess based on absolutely no scientific data…..half as much as predicted Monday …..remember nothing but a feeling and since I was outside my brain just might not have thawed out yet

    1. It is in tune with the 00z NAM, low pressure just south of new england.

      Cold, appears all snow in Boston …. 12 inches plus.

      I apologize that I dont know how to copy a link from Instant weather maps.

  92. And tomorrow, let me guess ……….. the models will remain cold, but the QPF will fall and we’ll all end up with 4-7 or 5-8, with a max amount being 10. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Nope.. meteorologist. Not discounting what I know is a valid possibility. Been doing this a while. 🙂

  93. Thanks for the snow map.
    Qpf is still 1-1.25 inches. Ratio up.
    Net result : more snow
    Awesome map. Awesome.
    Arctic high wins out.

    Good jo. Hadi.
    I didnt jump ship but was plenty concerned.

  94. 0z cmc looks good too. Turns corner
    Se of cape and goes to 979 mb in gulf of maine.

    Not buying system being surpressed.
    Not buying that at all.

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