Sometimes Big Storms Are Not Big Storms

288 Comments

9:54PM

SUMMARY…
The active and incredible Winter pattern, not even 20 days old, continues for a while, but may afford a couple of easier events during the next several days, in terms of snow. We will not be immune to some pretty serious cold air that will arrive not long from now. While many areas continue to dig out and clean up, which will take a very long time in some sections, we’ll continue to have storm threats as the pattern goes on. First, a minor ocean-effect snow event is expected along portions of the eastern Massachusetts coast on Wednesday due to a north northeast wind off the water. This is not expected to produce much, though up to a few inches are possible on the Massachusetts South Shore. Back to the west and north, ocean clouds may never reach and those areas of interior southern New Hampshire into north central and east central MA and down into RI will enjoy some sunshine. On Thursday, clouds will overspread all areas as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. Like so many of its predecessors, this system will redevelop and intensify off the southern New England Coast, but this time it should do this a little further offshore and keep the heaviest precipitation out over water. Nevertheless, there will be enough for some accumulating snow from the primary storm and mainly over southeastern areas from the redevelopment. That storm will move away by early Friday but as it is intensifying it will pull some very cold air down from eastern Canada again and drag it across New England with a strong wind. The next in the line of storms will drop out of the Great Lakes and off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast by late Saturday and early Sunday. This system is likely to explode into a monster storm over the water but at this time I expect this to be just far enough out there to only side-swipe southeastern New England with a bit of snow, but along with strong wind and very cold air. This system would have high impact with snow if it came a little closer, so we need to keep a very close eye on this one. Regardless of its exact track, as it moves away it will pull even colder air in behind it, which will last through Monday (Presidents Day). By Tuesday, the next storm system will come out of the Ohio Valley and run into this cold air and you know what that means…yet another snow threat, details and timing to be worked out.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows ranging widely from near -5 interior valleys to +15 Cape Cod. Wind N under 10 MPH except up to 15 MPH along coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY: Coastal clouds increase in eastern MA including ocean-effect snow showers developing, especially along the South Shore of MA where locally 2-4 inches of snow may occur. More sun inland. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH from the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Coastal clouds and flurries linger across southeastern MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 10s. Wind light NE to E early then shifting to N later.
THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Snow developing from west to east late in the day and continuing at night. Early call on accumulation… Coating to 2 inches north and west of Boston, 2-4 inches southeast of a Boston-to-Providence line and possibly Cape Ann, except 4-8 inches outer portion of Cape Cod. Highs around 30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but becoming NE to N and increasing to 15-25 MPH in eastern areas at night.
FRIDAY: Early clouds and snow showers eastern areas otherwise clearing and windy. Temperatures fall into the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunshine but high clouds increase from the W and thicken at night. Low 0. High 20.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of snow eastern areas, then increasing sun from west to east later. Strong wind. Low 5. High 15.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day snow. Low -5. High 20.

288 thoughts on “Sometimes Big Storms Are Not Big Storms”

    1. It went great. Considering the amount of snow in the relatively short amount of time, it’s pretty neat over here. Snow banks are giant, but still not as big as 1978. I have pictures to prove this. 🙂

      They are creeping up there though!

    1. Looks cold and mainly dry but lots of clouds and maybe some snow flurries around the northern Mid Atlantic region as the energy transfer between the low to the west and the new storm offshore will be just getting underway. I do not believe it will have any impact on travel.

    2. I think your drive will be fine on Saturday. Talk about dramatic differences in climate. Let us know where the snowline is. My guess is somewhere in Pennsylvania or Maryland. South Carolina has been relatively mild, even for South Carolina. However, the cold air push this time around will not only impact New England, it will also impact parts of the south, including South Carolina. So, do bring a winter jacket, especially for the evenings. I’m sure some of their early spring flowers have come up. The hardy ones, that is.

      1. Thank you both. Looks chilly Sunday in Orlando when we get there and Monday too. I will keep everyone informed of where the snowcover ends!

  8. School, YAY !!

    1) definite ocean effect on radar, but maybe fighting dewpoint depressions (no obs of snow currently)

    2) EURO will catch your eye on Sunday storm (wonder what a snow map looks like)

    3) another concern is next Tuesday …. This is trending warmer and warmer.

  12. Words cannot describe how depressing it is to see snow falling in Woburn. Is it too much to ask for just one normal sunny day??!

    1. Everything already coated…dammit..so depressing after 7 hours of cleanup last night. Even an inch or two has to be moved and roof raked at this point. Can’t physically take much more.

  13. Don’t want to see a warm solution with all the snow on the ground. NWS out of Upton, NY was hinting for that Tuesday storm THREAT that there maybe a mix or change to rain near the coast.

  14. The concerning part about next Tuesday ….

    Its 2 or 3 model runs in a row ……..

    US West Coast ridge retrogrades and amplifies.

    This causes the east coast trof to retrograde and amplify.

    This puts SW flow aloft on the east coast and thus, a whole different kind of storm track.

    I just hope by Saturday or Sunday, this Tuesday system hasn’t solidified into a strong storm headed for Cleveland, OH or Buffalo, NY accompanied by a surge of mild air right up the east coast.

    We shall see ……

  15. Thanks, TK.

    It’s snowing lightly in Sudbury now. Hey, we need to refresh the snow cover every day, right? 🙂

  17. Snow is just relentless in Woburn…enough that the roads are now thickly coated and causing all sorts of travel issues. Just won’t stop.

    1. Any idea when it ends? Really building up and I am dreading having to potentially move more snow on what I thought was a day of rest.

      1. IF one can believe the NAM, it doesn’t quit until tomorrow
        sometime when the next clipper approaches. BUT there will
        be a short lull then we get into the synoptic snow from the clipper.
        Such is life.

  20. With yesterday’s melting we grew two (2) GIGANTIC Icicles 8-10 dangling off of
    the gutter/soffet/facia boards!!! In addition we have a virtual flat roof on the
    back of the house about 20 by 30 feet that is LOADED with SNOW. Something
    shifted last night. I think it was snow sliding down the slanted roof onto the flat
    roof. Roof seems AOK.

    AS a precaution and in anticipation of MORE SNOW!!
    I have arranged to have the icicles removed and the roof cleared TODAY!

        1. At this point the weekend system is very much up in the air for a big storm . I would not cancel valentines night just yet.

    2. Looks like my home-made roof melts helped! No longer coming in at window and have a nice opening in the gutter. Will place a few more out there today. I should receive the (hockey puck) roof melts, tomorrow!
      Roof hockey, anyone :D!

  25. The NAM had this ocean affect snow but didnt have any accumulation. If it continues to snow at this intensity this will easily accumulate

  28. My co-worker was telling my about a device he purchased called an
    Inverter. It hooks up to the car battery and supplies up to 5,000 running watts
    of power. Cost is $300-$500 depending on wattage.

    Not bad for emergencies.

    Any thoughts/comments? Thanks

    1. My only concern would be, if the car is running it wont be as bad, but that seems like it would put a serious load onto a regular car… unless you had a truck with a larger battery/ alternator… 5,000 watts could run nearly a whole house
      i have a stand alone 6,500 watt generator and it runs my entire 2,700 sq foot home when power is out

      1. Thanks for the comments.
        Certainly not looking to run whole house.
        Looking to cover a few items:

        Make sure furnace motor and Thermostat/ignition is functioning.
        Oven (Can use burners with no electricity, but can’t set oven
        temperature without it)
        Refrigerator

        A couple of lights and of course the Internet, computers and TV.

        I don’t have time before the weekend to purchase a regular generator and have an electrician properly install it.

  30. It was snowing all the way up in Groveland this morning at around 5:45 am with nothing showing on radar….the intensity was definately greater as we approached the Cambridge Boston Area

  32. Henry is on the HYPE WAGON!!!

    Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 8m8 minutes ago
    If the blizzard occurs across eastern New England it would be worse than the last one that hit due to the extreme cold this time.

    Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 9m9 minutes ago
    The combination of extreme cold and high winds across the Northeast Sunday will be life threatening if outside unprepared.

  33. RADAR looks RELENTLESS!!!

    However, snow has lightened up some here and Sun is peaking out here and there.

    1. Still appears to me to be too far east. Plus, is there anything downstream to slow this thing down? If not, it will redevelop there but move out quickly before it has a chance to throw back any meaningful precip

      1. Big Low between Iceland and Greenland, PLUS 500MB flow will CUT OFF just off our coast. It “could” Stick around at least
        a little bit longer. We shall see.

        I need time to view Bernie’s Video. I think he discusses this
        possibility. 😀

  38. I’m going to say it. I LOVE the snow that is currently happening. It’s peaceful and it brightens the brown up. PLUS, it’s even a little sunny!

  39. Not air snow in Boston. Lower than 25:1 ratio. In fact, I’m surprised at how large and fairly wet the flakes are and that it is accumulating, albeit lightly, on almost all roads and streets. Treacherous walking commute this morning. Also surprised not to see a special weather statement or something on weather.com, not that I rely on that site for guidance. I think TK’s forecast is spot on. Parts of the South Shore will see up to 3 or 4 inches of snow today. Don’t be surprised tomorrow if that storm produces a wrinkle. No major snow. But again the south shore and south coast may get another batch of snow out of it.

  40. Sun is out here, however it is STILL snowing, albeit lighter than previously.

    GFS TIME!

    It says an inch or 2 tomorrow night.

    Waiting for Sat/Sun

  42. Biggest difference with the thurs/fri storm and sunday is the sunday storm is looking to develop further north. Still the same eastward movement but the development is closer to us. More snow.

      2. As it sits for a bit, it throws Back Side, HIGH RATIO SNOWS
        into Eastern Sections. Qpfs may not be enormous, but with
        HIGH ratios => SHITLOAD of SNOW

    3. This is interesting from the GFS, must admit, didn’t think we would see this suggested solution for the weekend storm …….

      1. Not surprised with where that ULL has been consistently showing on the 500mb. Figured it was only time before the surface maps came around.

  43. Very glad to see the bullseye is not over Boston this time. Still about a foot though. Cutoff will be sharper than modeled in that scenario. I don’t think this will be the final outcome however.

    1. Agree, not final solution. SCARY as HELL though.

      That’s 12-14 inches for Boston and a foot just to the South.

      Coast of MAINE gets CLOBBERED!!!!

      What a stretch of SNOWY weather.

      Any chance this gets going so far North as to SPARE us?

      KEEP watching.

        1. “Wicked” cold air spin in the atmosphere next to a “warm” ocean…. That’s what im fixated on.

          Speed of this will be a huge determining factor. A couple of extra hours of high ratio snow and well…

            1. And this is without any southern stream energy link. We’ve basically been getting bombed by supercharged clippers.

  45. clouds to the east, blue bird to the west, yesterday, i went skiing with my friend taylor, and we never seen so much snow on the top of the tree’s at wawa, nothing like the bigger mountains but seeing so much snow on the tree’s was cool, and yes, we did a bit of tree skiing and we were up to our knees in pow at wachusett lol

  46. Radar echoes are ever so slowly shrinking with our Ocean Snow.
    Snow much lighter now, although it is STILL snowing.

  47. Any idea when snow starts on Saturday?

    Also I noticed yesterday when I was out moving snow that birds are everywhere now. Tons of birds chirping, out and about.

          1. That’s a small favor for me. I picked up an overtime shift Sunday night, and my wife will divorce me if she has to clear the driveway again. Every storm so far, I have been at work!

  48. 2 things ….

    Talk about a shallow layer of arctic air …. Its under 20F in Boston and its 25F atop Mt. Washington

    Wind gusts in mph around 105hrs or 108hrs on the 12z GFS are 50 mph along the coastline.

  49. I’m predicting weekend storm for Boston will not PRODUCE big snow at all. Weak at best. Just a hunch . We are due for a miss .

    1. And exactly what science are you using for this? Just a hunch based on what?

      I think you are wrong John. Rest up.

      1. It was called a hunch you did not see that. I think its a big storm after it passes us. Will it snow Saturday night probably, but dont think its a big one.

    1. Let’s get through the next two storms first. The GFS as wavered back and forth on this storm from being rain or snow or a mix of the two. I think this will end up further east on successive runs.

      John, our miss is coming tomorrow. I don’t think we’ll miss Sunday and think it will probably look stronger, show more QPF on the models as we get nearer to the event. The surface maps are just starting to come in line with this one

      1. Agree, still plenty of time to change and the trough with very cold air is not too far off to our west. But there is really nothing to our north to block this thing and steer it south and east of us. Has the makings of a really messy storm.

  51. In the wake of the Sunday storm, the trough over the east retrogrades west, allowing this storm to come up as a coastal hugger. There is no blocking or high to the north to lock in the cold air. This is a plausible solution and I am not liking it.

  52. How about that loop the gfs is showing it doing in the gulf of Maine. If that ends up a little further south, oh boy.

  53. From NWS:

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 23s24 seconds ago
    Radar Update: Ocean effect snow showers will continue through much of the day into tonight.

    Interesting that they call it Snow Showers, when it has been steady snow ALL
    morning. 😆 😆

  54. Birds may be singing away. But, as someone who is an avid bird-watcher and nature observer, I can tell you that they’re suffering from this bout of weather, as are the squirrels and other creatures that are not hibernating. The bird songs you hear may be their versions of Rage Against the Machine or the The Clash. Not Valentine’s greetings, Neil Diamond, Air Supply, or Barbara Streisand. Food is much harder to come by, obviously. Plus, there’s only so much animals can store away. Even water is harder to come by. In the public garden, I saw a squirrel melting snow with his/her tongue to get some water to drink. Most will survive. But, some will perish. It is a natural selection of sorts, as the older and weaker ones will be the ones disproportionately affected.

      1. My sister and son would have to agree with you! Both have experience chewed up car wires (probably chipmunks) from those cute little Alvin’s!

  55. i would not be that worried about a storm thats is wednesday when we have a storm before it that could change a lot in the atmosphere.

    1. Matt the storm Sunday really could change the upper flow around some.
      It’s going to be a MONSTER, whether or not we get nailed.

  56. Heavy rain on Tuesday night would be a disaster. Calamity for some. I mean it. Let’s hope that does not happen. More snow would not be good, but MUCH better than heavy rain.

    1. I wonder about freezing rain as well. There will be a lot of low level cold around prior to that storm. We’ll just have to wait and see

  58. 12Z CMC for Sat/Sun

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021112/gem_mslpa_us_16.png

    A bit of a NORLUN

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021112/gem_mslpa_us_17.png

    What’s this feature to the West of the main center?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021112/gem_mslpa_us_18.png

    A bit of a Loop here?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015021112/gem_mslpa_us_19.png

    Put it ALL together and it spells DISASTER!!!

    1. John – I am not OS but I don’t see where he stated he wanted the storm on Saturday, he is merely reporting what the models are showing.

        1. Please go re-read what you wrote. I quote…”oldsalty you want the storm on Sunday”. I see no question mark thus making it a statement, not a question. I apologize if I can’t read minds.

          2. Give me a break Sue I don’t have time for this childish game. It was a question I didn’t put a do in front of you, shame on me.

  62. John – you are clearly over tired and I will not play these games with you. In the words of Charlie, have a good day. I am done here.

      1. Retrac, Sunday would be the SNOW BOMB. I posted surface map. Tuesday, it has system right over with center coming through “about” Central MA. Wiggle room there.

        Would be snow to ice to RAIN.

        1. I agree and I have to be honest, I thought this is where we would end up with this all along. And I still think there’s some room for it to be a little worse as if.

          I’m concerned about the south shore especially with this look.

          I hope is snows Tuesday and no rain. That would be very bad as we all know. Let’s see what the next bomb does to the atmosphere and how it influences the pattern thereafter.

          1. Yes, agree. IF it’s the bomb that’s being depicted,
            perhaps it will change things just enough to KEEP Tuesday from being rain OR even suppressing the whole damn thing. Keep our fingers crossed.

  67. Ryan ‏@RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago
    ECMWF 12z forecast track of storm Sunday would dump 1-2 feet of snow on Boston…winds 50-80 mph gusts out of NE, temps 10-20°F #blizzard

  69. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 3m3 minutes ago
    Big concern for Sat Nt/Sun. Heavy snow, strong wind, bitter cold potential #wcvb

  70. In all seriousness, TK & JMA do either of you OR both of you share the same
    concern as some of these METS have expressed. American, Canadian and European ALL want to nail us.

  71. Sure I share the concern. 12z ECMWF & GFS drops 18-24″ of snow in Boston as pressure drops to 986-992 directly overhead. My instinct tells me this should move further S & E, lessening its impact, but based on the how everything in the last 15 days as performed to and beyond maximum potential, how can I not be concerned? IF this were to happen you are talking complete and total shutdown of the city for days and those economic impacts I mentioned a couple of days ago would become very real.

    1. Oh Yeah, for sure. I am really worried.

      Happy I decided to clear my Roof today. They’re coming over very shortly.
      Even IF it cost me a grand, much better than a 50-100 Grand cost to rebuild part of my house and roof.

      Trying to decide which kind of generator, IF at all to purchase.
      We Don’t like keeping gasoline around anywhere.
      Not happy with inverters and not sure if we could get the vehichle close
      enough to the house. Inverter has to STAY dry.

      We may just opt to wait it out.

    2. Economic yes but that may be the least concern. Health…safety…many I’m missing. It is crazy in Boston now. You are very right that the city would be completely shut down.

      1. I can assure you it will be shut down.

        It took me 1 hour to travel about 3 1/2 miles this morning!!!!

        I DREAD the trip home.

        I am hearing reports of GRIDLOCK throughout the City.

  73. I think I will pack up and move south if Sunday unfolds like that HA. It almost seems impossible we keep getting these big storms one after the other.

  74. Went home for lunch. Piece of cake traveling, until I got near home.
    POLICE had Centre street blocked Off. Come to find out there was a SHOOTING
    a few blocks from my house. Scary! They apprehended the thug(s) that did it.
    My understanding is one dead, one injured.

    DAMN! will this ever stop!!!!!

  75. This is a storm that will be created by the redevelopment of great lakes low and a piece of very cold polar energy forming an anti-cyclone of the mid-atlantic coast with tertiary cyclogenesis forming under the 500mb low. It is going to form a very tight gradient and a sharp cutoff to the western extent of its significant impacts, especially with all the dry cold air that will be in place and will be being pulled down from the northwest. The current energy where this system is originating is in a very data sparse area and all models are certainly being influenced by recent climate activity so the models are going to generally now move forward with a more intense solution until better sampling and actual current NE US climatic conditions are recognized. I am generally offering a bit of hope that this moves further south and east then the 12z’s are showing.

  76. IF the sunday storm happens, thankfully it will be on a sunday when I hope people will not need to go out.

  77. Let’s remember, the thurs/fri storm was modeled to be a monster blizzard as of monday evening, so much so that some TV mets went on air with it that night.

    2. yes, and they look pretty foolish for doing so. For Sunday they are just
      expressing concern, which is the better route imo.

  80. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 4m4 minutes ago
    Regardless of the the location of the UL this looks like a blizzard for parts of New England. Too Much cold & energy for it not to occur.

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 6m6 minutes ago
    I am going to update this before I leave today. Blizzard likely to unfold unless I have totally misdiagnosed this. http://ow.ly/ITJVl

  81. Going to Florida on Saturday coming back Thursday. Hoping to come home to a house that still has a roof and is water free. Neighbors are going to come check on the house. Hired someone to plow my driveway. Hoping all these storms go out to see so I don’t have to worry!

  82. Yes I am concerned about the weekend potential and share the very same thoughts as JMA.

    We have time to see what is going to happen. We’re reached the stage where we don’t need days and days warning to be prepared. You cannot prepare for a series of events you are enduring any more than you can prepare for a hurricane while you’re in the middle of it. Ready or not, here we go, until it decides to change.

  84. Here is the 12z Euro snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/2yrfEtJ.jpg

    Basically a widespread 18-24″ from Worcester County east. Sharp cutoff to the southwest in CT as we get the short end of the stick again. I would be happy to take the jackpot on this storm for you guys but unfortunately it looks like eastern MA is ground zero once again.

    1. Regardless of what happens, it’s amazing how consistently on the models this storm threat has been.

  87. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 41s41 seconds ago
    IF storm does impact us this weekend, it’s a quick mover. No blocking so not a prolonged system. Still could be 6-12+ but not 30″ again.

  88. The B word should NOT be mentioned, or at least make it clear that this is a model projection with a high degree of uncertainty.

    Bernie Rayno’s tweets (which OS posted) bother me. 1. They’re not logical; 2. They’re meant to either scare people or make Bernie seem like the all-powerful Oz.

    1st tweet is illogical:

    “Regardless of the the location of the UL this looks like a blizzard for parts of New England. Too Much cold & energy for it not to occur.”

    Mmm. If the system is too far east, it’s too far east. I don’t care how much cold and energy are involved. Plenty of storms have missed us only to provide the fishes with something to write home about.

    2nd tweet is scaremongering:

    Blizzard likely to unfold unless I have totally misdiagnosed this.

    No, no, no. You cannot say blizzard is likely to unfold more than 72 hours before the event. That is inexcusable for a meteorologist. Sorry for the rant.

    1. I agree, You are correct about too early to use the “B” word, but as for location
      of upper low, he meant farther South, NOT East. 😀

    1. That’s not that close. We’ll be fine. 🙂

      Though for some reason AccuWeather is now going for snow all day Friday.

  90. Too early to call a blizzard for Sunday… we were doing the same thing for tomorrow’s “event.” It will be a very strong storm, but I don’t know that SNE will be the jackpot. I like the 12z GFS the best out of the 12z models today. Probably won’t verify exactly, but the greatest impacts may well end up in Maine while SNE gets grazed. Just has to do with where the low develops. I don’t think it forms far enough south to bomb out by the time it gets to around or just south of our latitude. A graze from a storm like this could still mean a decent impact though. Plenty of time to watch. Next Tuesday is a hit I think. I’m thinking snowstorm, not rainstorm. Which is probably better anyway.

  93. I don’t know IF you want to listen to these guys, but here goes:

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 3s4 seconds ago
    Time Will Tell. But this is looking Huge.

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 15s16 seconds ago
    I could see this storm going further south on the models. Affecting #Philly to #Portland with generally 10-30+ inches of #Snow with Ratios.

      1. Oh Boy. NO METS on their site? Then it’s time for your rant
        as they have NO BUSINESS posting this stuff on Social Media.
        It’s one thing when a Met does so, but Not even a met.
        No No No

  94. Holidays we don’t need as days off, and the time from these should be added to everyone’s vacation time to take when they want…

    MLK Jr. Day. Before anybody jumps on me for this, I would never diminish the guy’s passion and accomplishments and what he stood for. And his birthday and legacy should be observed and remembered, but like the next one on my list, don’t think we need it as a day off.

    Presidents Day. It’s only for auto dealers now, nobody does anything regarding presidents.

    Evacuation Day and Bunker Hill Day (Suffolk County). Every day in Boston is a “party” one way or another. And any holiday that is exclusive to one county is basically a waste of time-off.

    Columbus Day. Really? Let’s celebrate the really mean Italian explorer who worked for Spain and went looking for India but went the wrong way and landed on an island in the Caribbean and was credited with discovering a land that not only had natives on it for a very long time already, but was also visited previously by other explorers from northern Europe. Close enough for government work I guess. Around here the only reason they keep this as a holiday so people can sit in traffic and look at leaves just before they die and fall off the trees.

    1. WOW!!!

      Your panties in a bunch? WOW!!!

      I’ll TAKE ANY AND ALL DAYS OFF, thank you very much. 😀 😀 😀

      1. And for the record, I’ll happily take off St. Patricks Day,
        Patriot’s Day (You forgot that one in your rant) and Bunker Hill Day!!!! AND DO!!! 😀

        1. I used to bartend on Saint Patrick’s Day and hated it. Amateur Drinking Day…too many people puking up green beer. 🙂

    2. Some of the folks who get bunker hill and evac day are working required full OT shifts due to lack of hiring which the gov has just made worse I suspect they will take a day 🙂

      Seriously though, I like honoring the father of our country just as I do its birth. MLK day is not recognized by many businesses so I would agree. Columbus Day too. However, if you take them away, I guarantee most businesses will not replace them and if they do they will eventually fall by the wayside

    3. I kinda agree with TK on most of the these. What I would rather see is the U.S. to get more in line with Europe, Australia, etc in terms of vacation time given to employees. While we are getting better we still lag behind a lot of other countries.

      I would actually love to see the time around the 4th of July extended to a longer holiday period..an extra day or two. If you are going to celebrate something that should be one of the big ones. Also give Christmas eve off where ever possible.

      Ok off my soapbox. 🙂

  95. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 3s3 seconds ago
    When it snows, it snows harder. Another Blizzard on the radar for ##Boston this weekend. Strong winds & snow possible

  96. IS THIS TRUE? Anyone Know?

    IF so, HOLY CRAP BATMAN. WE IS IN TROUBLE!!

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
    @RyanMaue I may have to favorite this tweet for later verification 😉 Every single EPS member has over a foot. All 50 of ’em.

    1. Not sure where he means it for. But certainly not true for Boston. Most of them show 6-12″ on a 10:1 ratio, some more, but a few with very little. ENS mean is about 10″ on a 10:1 ratio. 50/50 ensemble members showing a foot for Boston for a storm 4-5 days away would be extraordinary.

  97. Send the big totals my way. Although I should not complain with three straight storms that delivered 6-10 inches of snow.
    If the EURO is right that will yet another one.

  99. My Neighboors are going to freak out as I will be gone from
    Saturday for a week skiing out in the Berkshiers. I am worried about roof as well.

    1. Roof problems come later, I believe, when there’s melting and/or rain. Of course, any flat roof is in trouble. But, I assume you don’t have a flat roof.

      All this said, don’t count on the storm happening on Saturday night/Sunday. It’s a legitimate and very real concern, but NOT a done deal.

      I have no proof or evidence to back up my assertion but I think the storm will wind up too far south and east to impact us as much as Bernie, Eric, Ryan, and others have us believe. We shall see. Hadi, you’ve been spot on all winter, so rely on your judgment.

  100. High tide Sunday morning in east coastal Mass is somewhere around 7-7:30am.

    Seems at 12z Sunday, EURO position is just east of Boston with potentially howling N and NE winds.

    Seems like the low position and its time of buildup to max impact, as currently modeled, would be fairly matched with the Sunday morning high tide. Oh boy ……..

    Perhaps a not long buildup of waves from Saturday would help, but the “blizzard” a couple of weeks ago didnt have a previous day’s buildup and that system created a 4+ ft storm surge.

    1. Ah No. That is giving you a 30:1 for 10 degree temps. So many more factors. 500-700mb temps and relative humidity and upward vertical velocity are far more important than surface temps.

    2. Yes, and David Epstein posted this chart last week.
      PROBLEM. It does NOT take into account the temperature in the snow
      growth area. One can “assume” something, but it “may” not be accurate.

      BUT in this case, it may be a decent approximation as the charts I looked at
      have it COLD all through the column.

      Just my 2 cents.

      1. Disclaimer at the bottom:

        “This table gives a statistical relationship between amounts of snow that fall and the corresponding water equivalent at specified temperature ranges. The water equivalent and snow fall amounts are listed in inches. Temperature ranges are listed in degrees Farenheit. These values are only approximate. The Actual values for a specific storm can vary significantly from this table.”

  102. Os the twitter you posted from Ryan Maue, is he talking about the euro ens members? If so not true, i viewed it on fb all 50 of them and not ALL of them show a foot or more. I would maybe 55% miss and 45% hit or 50/50

    1. I don’t know. I presume he meant the EURO.
      AND I just posted his tweet. He is a PHD Met, so I assumed he would
      be accurate.

      1. He said EPS. That IS THE EURO. I believe that may be the control run and not the operational run, I’m not sure

          1. Oh Yeah, I see what you posted. Don’t know
            what that guy is smoking, unless it was the
            control and not the operational????

  106. BTW constant light snow here most of the morning and afternoon. Not much new accumulation (maybe an inch) but it sure has whitened up everything.

  108. My two flat roofs are now CLEARED. The roof on a smaller front porch
    and a large roof on the back of the house. 2 huge icicles removed with a casualty!
    The Wooden railing on my back stairs was pummeled by this monstrosity!!!

    Waiting for my invoice and/or a call from the owner of the company that did the work
    to see what he will do for me. It’s clearly on them. I’m giving him a chance before
    I call him.

    This thing was so HUGE, at least a 10 footer more than a foot in width, I really can’t blame them. Happy I didn’t try to remove it. Owner is a good guy. I’m sure he will do something to make it right.

    1. I was going to say something about that. It doesn’t show a BLIZZARD as of that time, but it doesn’t mean it won’t!

  111. Eric fisher factoring ratios of 15:1 and maybe even 20:1. I agree with those ratios as well. If this tracks as modeled this will be pretty massive.

    Btw the weather is going to do what it’s going to do. I pray for everyone that bad things won’t happen but as a weather enthusiast not sure how you can’t be fascinated that we might end up with 3 top storms in a three week period. We also have a legit chance of getting close to all time record.

      1. For sure. Just reporting what this particular model run shows.

        Lest we forget, it is an 18Z run.

        Let’s look at the 0Z run for a better representation. 😀

    3. That’s what it showed last storm as well until it corrected itself. We read last time that the NAM has a bias towards pulling storms too far north.

  114. Hello everyone–so, the Milton Public Schools are going to have a delayed opening (2 hours) for Thursday and Friday in an attempt to help with the morning commute. It was pretty bad this morning; I had morning outside duty and my job was to run up to cars, open the back door and help the kids out. Cars were backed up to 138, but what was kind of funny were the people who didn’t have any kids in the car, but turned because everyone else was. Opened a few car doors of people with no children–you’d be surprised at how many people drive with their doors open.

    I’m hoping for no more snow–absolutely. But, and I have to say it, I was in New Orleans for Katrina and so, given a choice, I’ll move snow because I can over water any day.

    1. The delays are helpful in that case. And I’m guessing not enough people thank you for what you do to help the kids arrive safely, so thank you!

    1. It looks like it doesn’t really get going till its past. Draws some of it’s precip shield back into the circulation as it intensifies.

  116. It appears that MJO’s trip into Phase 2 and beyond is delayed, probably due to snow. 😉

    It’s going to be dancing around in phase 8 and phase 1 for a while, which means this pattern, which started on the day of my January 24-March 7 window, will probably last until the end of the window, versus breaking early like I thought recently.

  117. Oh and…the GFS still wants to put a storm that involves rain about February 23-24. It refuses to give up that idea. It did the same thing about snow on February 2 for nearly 2 weeks leading up to that and nailed it. 🙂

  119. Words NOT overheard between fellow commuters and office workers in Boston today: “Ooh look, it’s snowing outside.” Words actually heard: “(Censored).”
    Terry Eliasen @ wbz

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