… (PRESS HERE IF YOU ARE ON A PHONE)

538 Comments

8:15PM

COMMENTARY…
Yes, the title of the blog entry is … which should be easily figured out. 🙂
Too bad The Weather Channel didn’t start naming this series of storms after the Beatles. We could have had John, Paul, and George by now, and Ringo coming up, and next week, maybe even Pete Best. 🙂 My other comment here is a little more serious and just kind of a public plea really. We all know that it’s been one heck of a stretch of Winter weather, and that 3 weeks probably now seems like 3 months, and even the snow lovers among us are tired from shoveling and navigating, etc. Some of us accept this fact of Winter, even in this extreme case, while others curse it and all that goes along with that. I’m not here to judge that in this post, even though I often make my opinions quite known. 🙂 What I really want to address here is anger. If there is one thing I have learned about people, in general, is that we are lot more quick to react out of frustration and anger now than we were back in 1978, for example. Yes people got frustrated then, but it seemed so much so that the first choice would be to help somebody, be friendly to somebody, and do whatever they could to help others get through the weather-related hardship. We worked much better as a team then, and now it seems to be everybody for themselves. I know this does not apply to everybody, and there are many of us that would do just as many did in 1978. As tough a stretch as this is, and will continue to be for a while, try to exercise patience, help where and when you can, and smile at somebody. It’s contagious, and that’s something good to catch. Spread it!

SUMMARY…
The current small storm system has delivered its coating to 2 inches of snow to much of the region today, and as it redevelops offshore it may deposit another couple inches across Cape Cod. But this progressive system will be moving rapidly away as it develops and intensifies, dragging much colder air from eastern Canada into New England overnight through Friday. This will include wind. Then quickly the attention turns to the next in a seemingly endless series of storms, this one a northern jet stream clipper system that came out of the Arctic circle a couple days ago and has been diving southeastward across Canada, will undercut the Great Lakes and make a turn eastward just south of New England then northward just east of New England, explosively intensifying as it gets over the water. The exact position, rate of strengthening, and track will determine the impact here, but it seems likely that a pretty decent snowfall is again coming, along with very cold temperatures and very strong wind. Blizzard conditions become possible in this set-up, and for that reason a blizzard watch is in effect for Saturday night and Sunday along the coast from the Cape Cod Canal northward. We will talk more about exactly what that means is it appears that it will become a reality and a warning is issued. Suffice it to say, here we go again. An early call on snow amounts for the storm, 8-16 inches with pockets of heavier east of Worcester County except 4-8 inches along the South Coast which may see a little less in the way of moisture wrapping around the storm as it intensifies. 4-8 inches are also expected from Worcester County to RI. These amounts are subject to change and will be fine-tuned as the development of the system is more clearly known. It should not be forgotten that this storm will also have a significant wind component which may lead to power outages, hopefully limited due to the dry nature of the snow, and also presents the risk of coastal flooding at high tide times. More to come on these issues. By later Sunday as it moves away, the snow will have ended, lastly on the coast, and very strong winds will create blowing and drifting, which will last into Monday as winds stay up, along with bitterly cold air, likely the coldest of the season. But we get no break, for even though the coldest is gone by Tuesday, another storm threat is quick to follow, and we may be looking at a snow/ice/rain situation, depending on storm track, later Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be followed by more cold air with dry weather returns by Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: An additional inch or two of snow on Cape Cod otherwise clearing northwest to southeast. Lows 0-5 northwest of Boston, 5-10 to the southeast except 10-15 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chill dropping below 0.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-13 northwest of Boston, 13-18 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH common. Wind chill around 0 freqently.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows -10 to -5 interior, -5 to 0 elsewhere except 0-5 Boston and coastline. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow by mid or late afternoon. Highs 20-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, especially eastern MA and southern NH. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant accumulation likely. Possible blizzard conditions near eastern coastal areas. Lows 10-15. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow gradually diminishing from west to east, lastly on the coast and Cape Cod. Additional significant accumulation in the morning, less so in the afternoon, heaviest amounts eastern areas (see above for numbers). Blowing drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 15-20. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH with gusts to over 40 MPH inland and over 50 MPH coast.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny and windy. Blowing snow. Low -5. High 10.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Late-day and nighttime snow with possible mix. Low 5. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with mix/snow AM. Clearing PM. Low 30. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

538 thoughts on “… (PRESS HERE IF YOU ARE ON A PHONE)”

  3. I think this would be the perfect time to have our “First 70 degree Day of 2015” contest. Anyone interested? It’s been kinda boring around here and I thought this might jump start the blog again!

  5. Thanks TK.
    Saw a good snow squall this afternoon as I was at the hospital visting my Uncle today in New Haven. His room is on the eleventh floor and I had a great view from the north as the snow squall came in.
    Looks like I will once again left out of the big totals for the upcoming storm with only 3-6 inches here.

    1. Wtf…
      Your hunch correct?????
      He said 8-16 inches with higher pockets.
      HOW does that make your hunch good????

          2. I think like otters have said the biggest impact may be the wind and to boot it is going to be brutally cold. I think it’s a light fluffy snow so hopefully that will cut down on outages because to loose heat this weekend would be dangerous.

              1. Sure would . We lost It I think two years ago from Friday night till Tuesday night and it was not that cold and the house was like an ice box. Very, very dangerous if that happens lets hope nobody faces that.

  11. So 4, 5, and now 7 all have 12″+ across all eastern MA east of Worcester. I don’t think the foot mark will be nearly that widespread.

  12. I advise people to go out and inspect the roof of your home. Flat roofs are the ones to look out for. Lots of weight sitting up there now folks if you can safely remove anything without the use of a ladder and healthy enough to do it remove it with a roof rake. If you have a pool the extension pole with brush can be used. What your trying to do is scrape as much as you can you do not need to go all the way down to the shingles. Use caution with the poles that you do not come in contact with wires . Lots of good roofing contractors / construction contractors but lots of skum as well. You can call your building inspector and ask him if he can refer a good contractor. I had one of my roofs done today my farmers porch hip roof. You probably all know this I’m just trying to offer some good advice. Also if you have a bulk head if you can get all the snow off . I did this Tuesday morning on no sleep since Saturday.

    1. Good ideas.

      Also, make sure that the areas outside all your exterior doors are clear. We never use the front door on the house, but I keep it clear because it is an additional fire escape route.

  13. Tk thank you. Awesome write up!!
    If we end up with enough ocean component
    To the wind there could be substantial
    Ocean enhancement as surface and water temp
    Differential to850 mb temps would be huge!!!
    However it actually might be somewhat limited
    Due to the strength of the wind.

    Comments

    1. It may be limited also due to the direction of the wind, which may end up largely north. That could direct ocean enhancement to Cape Cod.

      1. You said that. I’m sure you paid for it but if it was a good contractor worth every penny. My neighbor did mine he is a painter but knows what he is doing and charged me $100 bucks.

  15. Trying to compare 00z vs 18z NAM surface pressures.

    Two observations so far ….

    00z ‘s surface low, as its dropping thru western NY State a tick further southwest, and a tick stronger thus far ……..

  16. TK, great commentary and blog. Thoughts on timing Sat? Hoping to leave for SC around 10 ( have to go to my daughter’s bball game first and be through Baltimore by 5. I am reluctantly leaving even though I will end up in Florida next week. I have ice damns on the roof and am worried about that a lot. My neighbor is going to rake any additional snow off the roof that we have while we are gone but any rain Tues has me very nervous. I put some ice melt in nylon up there today. Have to go check on the progress tonight.

    1. Good luck. Does it get sun. The front of my house gets a ton of sun in the winter and usually the first house around to melt .

  17. my crew for doing the roof was me and my brother axing the crap out of the ice and then putting salt in the gutters

    1. Yup.

      The NAM’s finally starting to get a clue on this system, in my opinion.

      The winds coming up on the NAM as well.

  19. I’ve had a tad bit of a short fuse here and I’m sorry. My bark is worse than my bite . I’ve never worked so many hours in such a short time as I have been doing the last 3 weeks. So I guess I’m a bit grumpy at times. Sorry it’s all good .

    1. Your amounts may be very much in that range because of the orientation of the heaviest. But probably quite a bit of wind.

  22. Charlie will return. He’s waiting for spring when hope springs eternal. The warm-up will happen, and it may shock our systems. Just try and imagine a 50 degree day, with a warm late February sun melting away the millions of tons of snow we’ve accumulated in Southern New England. It’s only a couple of weeks away. It’s going to happen. Well maybe not this month, but certainly by early March. And by then you’ll notice that the red-wing blackbirds have returned from their South American winter home. Their distinct mating calls may be louder and laced with profanity this year as they complain about not being able to find twigs and grass for their nests. By mid March – only a month from now! – most of the `great snows of 2015′ will have melted away, though reminders of the snow blitz will dot the landscape in the form of massive piles of dirty snow. In late March we’ll welcome our first 70 degree day: T-shirts, mini skirts, shorts, sun-glasses, sandals, you name it, everyone in Boston will be a sun-worshipper this year, as our vitamin D deprived bodies soak it all in. Of course, the fun in the sun may be short-lived as we endure raw, gray days in April and May. But, June usually brings with it the certainty of warmth and sometimes heat and humidity. That’s only 110 days from now.

        1. I oddly thought bobs was in Boston. Darn but I hated skiing there. If you couldn’t stop, you crashed into the barriers at the bottom

  24. Look at those NAM totals in Maine, wow! We’d be screwed if this were developing further south. As it stands though I agree with Ace that all the TV mets have the 12″+ too widespread for SNE. This is a Maine special. They’re gonna get it big. For SNE it will be all about the wind, along with 6-12 fluffy inches of snow. A glancing blow that may not feel much like a glancing blow.

  26. Please do not lose OS and Hadi on this blog because of So Shore kid.. I think Charlie already left!!! HELP! ( and yes they are like school kids but….)

    3. We are all like family here and have been blogging here for years . We all bicker here from time to time. I think oldsalty and hadi will have my back on this one as we have a great deal of respect for one another . Welcome to the blog don’t worry thankfully it’s not like wbz if that’s still bad .

  27. Sneaky snow showers around ….

    My concern level continues to increase.

    NAM at 968 mb east of Boston, EURO at 976 falling to 962mb as it heads towards Nova Scotia.

    Sometimes, many days out, models will show a strong storm, but then 2 or 3 days prior to the event, they back off of the storm’s intensity. I think this happened on a Great Lakes storm around last Christmas. Its not happening here. I almost think the models may have dropped another mb or 2 today.

    Its a system coming straight out of the arctic. Its trajectory in approach is so sharp to the northeast, an indication of the upper level support accompanying this entity.

    And the rate of strengthening is so fast, so close to us.

    However much snow we get is not my concern. Its the wind and maybe this time, the expanse of the wind.

  28. A lot of you have heard me talk about my radio hobby (long distance listening). Well this morning the snow took its toll on one of my lead in wires. The weight pulled it out from the transformer. Well its about 150 ft through hip deep snow and I was thinking of checking on it this morning but then I thought better of it as I didn’t want to end up like poor Jack

    http://i.ytimg.com/vi/STymVjlysmg/maxresdefault.jpg

  29. So basically a burst of moderate snow here during the last hour with another 1/2 inch.

    Yup. The atmosphere just simply wants to snow…

    A friend and fellow meteorologist made a good point that the temperature profile for the weekend storm is such that it will be extremely cold in the snow growth region, which will have a significant impact on flake size and therefore accumulation. Tiny flakes = less air between = lower totals.

    1. Damn…really? I haven’t looked outside since 6pm or so and now I really don’t want to. All I want is one day of blue skies and no snow threat ha. Maybe someday soon…

      1. My vis dropped almost to 1/4 mile but stayed just above, so moderate. I’m to the point where I’m not even cleaning the driveway for these 1/2 inch coatings. 🙂

        1. Yeah I might not. My problem is I am so anal with snow removal…like really bad. So if you have Snow OCD like me, this has been a rough ~3 weeks. In the past we would get some sun and I wouldn’t bother but not sure now.

  30. Comparing 00z GFS at 33 hrs (surface lowest pressure of 1,000 mb) vs 18z GFS at 39 hrs (surface lowest pressure of 1,002mb)

    Down 2 more mb comparatively, as of this point ……

      1. I’m afraid so …..

        The western side of this thing is going to be nasty and I think its a question of how much of eastern Mass gets in it and for how long …… I think the 00z NAM and now the 00z GFS are showing a little better how impactful that western side will be.

    2. 7-10 am Sunday morning ……

      60-70 mph winds, first nosing into the Maine/NH coastline at 7am, then paralleling the whole coastline by 10am.

      High tide Sunday morning is 7:30am.

        1. Yes, I thought that too.

          Perhaps the upper feature is becoming forecast to catch the surface system a bit more …. I thought I read somewhere that it was possible that it might not, well … Based on previous model scenarios.

          And, I wonder if that somewhat explains previous model cycles of everything being further north. Because, if the 500mb low takes a little longer to catch the surface feature, then I’d think the low gets a bit further north and then the capture is further north, etc.

          1. I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but I do not like what I see unfolding with each subsequent model cycle.

          2. NWS hinted at the ULL possibly picking up the surface low. (slows the whole thing down as you know an resulting in better banding. I haven’t compared from to frame but this looks simply like a better formed storm. I’d have to do a frame by frame comp. The surface low likely isn’t “escaping” or shooting out of TK’s black hole as fast as it was in other model runs. Not sure.

            Oh man, 12 z’s are huge tomorrow.

              1. g’night. me too.

                ULL slightly further SW and trough slightly more negative. I guess that’s all it’s gonna take to crank this up more or not.

      1. Flake size down. Extreme cold in snow growth region. Should prevent most areas from going over 18 on the top end.

        1. I wondered that too b/c of the wind on the flake size. I think this storm with all of the impacts could be pretty brutal even at 12″.

  34. The latest run of GFS has increased snow totals here in CT where looking at 6-12 inch accumulation. Noticed now with this run Long Island NYC in 4 5 inch area where before there totals were less.
    Could this low be forming a little further south and are we seeing a trend here??

  39. Those are just the snowfall amounts in those links posted. Add the wind I would not be surprised if there is some blowing and drifting of the snow and some power issues.

  40. 6Z NAM is getting MUCH closer to the GFS solution.
    Thanks for the maps JJ. Now I don’t have to post them. I’ll find some more. 😀

  41. Btw, all of this talk about brutal COLD this morning? huh? Where’s the BEEF?

    It’s 10.4 here. Sure it’s cold to be sure, but NOT this brutal cold everyone was
    pitching. Oh well, just more HYPE!

  42. The wind for where I am in CT looks to be the bigger deal. 3-6 inches of snow we could handle but already parts of CT are under high wind watches and to me even when this ends Sunday morning travel still won’t be good with blowing and drifting of the snow. Hopefully there won’t be too many power issues as you don’t want to have no power with how cold its going to be wind.
    Unfortunatley you guys are going to be the bullesye in SNE with the snow.

  43. Euro comes in MORE South, yet it wants to give us LESS precip. I don’t get it.

    GFS appears to have the best handle on this like it has with most of the other storms
    this Winter.

    Sure likes we’ll have to endure yet another Major Winter Snow Storm.
    HOPE there are NO power outages with the COLD involved in this storm.

  46. Pretty good consistency with 00z and 6z GFS. NWS snow map doesn’t reflect that. They must be leaning more towards NAM/EURO blend.

          1. Thanks

            OOPSIE! NOW I SEE what you mean.

            HUH? WHAT? WHAT UP WIT DAT???

            Thye took a NOSE DIVE.

            ALmost like they’re going with the NAM/CMC
            The Euro shows more than that.

            Perhaps they are factoring in what TK said about the temperatures in the snow growth zone?? I dunno

            I SUSPECT they go back up today.

            We shall see.

            1. In their blizzard watch they still have
              8-12 inches. They had better get with
              the program and be consistent at least.

              1. With the NAM’s recent history, irresponsible to be ALL IN
                with it for this event.

                Hey, perhaps they are correct.

                Based on the evidence, I say NO.

                We could handle 8-10 better than 14-18 or some such higher number.

  47. Thanks for the link Old Salty.
    My county not currently under a winter weather alert but would not be surprised later if at the very least an advisory is posted. Although as I mentioned earlier wind will be the bigger story here than the amount of snow.

  48. OS …. Any EURO pressures and surface low locations for 7am – 1pm Sunday ?

    Would love to see any info in btwn the 24 hr increments.

    Thanks !

        2. 992mb South of the Cape 54 hours
          984mb SE of Cape 57 hours
          976mb “Just” east of Boston 60 hours
          972mb NE of Boston 63 hours
          968mb still East of boston at 66 hours
          964mb more East of boston at 69 hours

          964 seems to be the bottom

  49. Until about 7am Sunday, I’d guess it will be somewhat easy to figure out how much snow falls in this event.

    From 7am to 1pm ….. No chance. 🙂 🙂

    6z GFS wind gusts on south shore showing 70mph gusts for a few hrs (I believe around 10am Sunday morning).

  50. SREF has “about” 12-15 inches for Boston. They don’t have a storm total.
    Have to add up the increments.

  51. For the coastline, the latitude at which the surface low gets is huge in that Sunday morning time frame.

    Further north, Mass has more N or NNW winds.

    Further south, N winds, but then the possibility of the wind being slightly onshore begins.

    And given the 6 hr projections of wind gusts shown on the models from 7am to 1pm Sunday, it is crucial as to wind direction then.

    1. Even IF the accumulations aren’t huge, the wind will be with this event.
      Major storm no matter how you slice it.

      I still think over a foot. I don’t get the latest NWS accumulation map.
      Could they be correct? Sure. We shall see.

    1. Yup …. Either way, N, NNW or NNE winds, I’d think there’s going to be a lot of water driven into concave Cape Cod Bay.

      Hopefully, max surge down there will be 10am – 1pm, when the tide is going from half way out to low tide.

    1. Yeah, it is. Seems like the GFS might be the outlier. It’s done so well generally, I’m not going to ignore it. Let’s see what the Majors bring for 12z.

  54. I probably get too worried about the wind, but thats what 14 years in Marshfield has done to me.

    Also, the Dec 9, 2005 event as far as a quick pressure drop, followed by the 90-100 mph wind gusts on Cape Cod (I think we had around 50 – 60 mph gusts in Marshfield) incorrectly makes me think that everytime we have a bombing storm nearby, thats a possibility. And, I know thats incorrect thinking, but its always in the back of my mind.

  55. I’ll take that 4-6 for Boston . So is it snowing by 3 in boston. Oldsalty has the guard been in your area.

      1. They were to go in all the neighborhoods last night. Walsh said no noise complaints please we have a job to do , it’s about time .

  56. Aside from the GFS, models have really backed off on the accumulations this morning.

    GFS, Euro and CMC also now favoring a suppressed/OTS solution with the midweek system. Would be a glancing blow or miss, though the ensembles still leave the door open for a closer solution.

    Overall, good trends this morning if you are looking for less snow.

    1. The cold has been quite a story too this winter Vicki. If not for all of this snow, that would be the headline. Thank God oil is down.

      1. Very true my friend. When my wife and I first bought a house in 2001, we got oil filled at .89 a gallon! My father in law saw the statement and flipped out how expensive that was…ha.

  60. No matter what the snow totals end up being the wind will be a big story with this storm system.
    Will see what the 12z runs have to say when it comes to snow and wind potential.

  61. Re: yesterday

    Just want bloggers to know that John (South Shore Kid) and I are just fine. We understand each other. No problems whatsoever. Right John? I’m not going anywhere
    anytime soon. 😀

    1. Thank you oldsalty and yes we do understand that. Kind of scratched my head that a new person here would say that as they have no idea how we all get along here which I think we all get along great. We all bicker here from time to time. Thanks oldsalty .

      2. His twitter page has the following – Meteorologist/Horticulturalist. Blog on @bostondotcom @pressherald Meteorologist for @wbur Freelance @cbsboston @wgme @colbycollege @framinghamu

  63. Quick overview this morning of the forecast: Good news. In fact, very good news. The upcoming storm will certainly be problematic in terms of wind, but the amount of snow looks to be limited. Don’t think that Boston even approaches 10 inches. Would not surprise me if Boston came in at 6 inches, with the north shore getting 9. The news for Tuesday is even better. After that, we need to get some February sun and gradual melting.

  64. WBZ ch4 already in Marshfield. Passed their truck this morning that’s probably headed for Brant Rock. They were at Dunkin Donuts 🙂 🙂 🙂

  67. I think Epstein and others are thinking too much about he previous 3 storms and how they over-performed. This one packs a lot of wind, but little qpf, is hitting dry air so a lot will not even reach the ground at first, and is very progressive. I sincerely do not believe this storm will over-perform. It may under-perform.

    Also, OS is right about the temperature. It is not particularly cold this morning. While this month has been very cold relative to norms, the forecasts of below zero nights in Boston have not materialized. Also, looking ahead each successive model run indicates the low temps at night will not be especially brutal the coming week. So much for the 1934 comparison.

  68. Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 9m9 minutes ago
    If you have something planned for Sunday morning…think about rescheduling! Conditions look tough for Connecticut and the Northeast USA

    I do NOT NOT like all of this CONFLICTING information about the storm.
    HUGE spread in forecaster amounts. What the HELL is the public to think???

    I really feel bad for the general public around here when it comes to storms
    in general and THIS storm in particular.

    At least we have our fingers on the PULSE here. We may not be certain of what
    will happen, BUT at the very least we are ALL informed of various possibilities.
    We know what the forecast is, but we also know what is being discussed behind
    the scenes, ALL the WHAT IFs etc.

    That’s what I LOVE about this BLOG.

    No matter how it turns out, we were there every step of the way.

    1. Wait until everyone sees the wind and the ground blizzards Sunday morning in eastern Mass. Wont even be able to tell if its actually snowing from the sky. We’ll see what everyone thinks of the impact or lack there of then.

      Put me in the category of a huge Sunday impact, huge !!

  69. Thanks, TK. And that’s a great blog you wrote.

    BTW- “spin-ups” (seemingly new spring/ summer term for brief, weak tornadoes) – ok
    But now “cold snowstorms”. I get that – these past few snowstorms have been really cold. But sometimes I find the term “cold snowstorms” kind of funny – no offense to anybody – but snow is cold! 🙂

    1. 🙂 Your comment reminds me of the old saying “It’s too cold to snow” which we well know now is not the case!

  71. NWS map is very good. There are glaring red flags on this not being a huge snow producer. Wind will be the real story. FWIW, the 0z UKMET, showed 2″ of snow for Boston out of this storm. And that’s a very reliable model. I like my general 6-12″ idea still though, basically exactly what the NWS has.

      1. Not sure how much this plays into the lower snow totals –
        Jim Cantore @JimCantore
        1 hour ago
        The WSI RPM model shows break in the snow (gray over eastern MA) early Sunday AM which would cut down on snow totals.

        1. I saw that. Perhaps that will happen. Perhaps not.
          RPM is not God and has been WRONG before.

          We just don’t know. The atmosphere is extremely
          volatile. I suspect there WILL be some surprises.

          We shall watch and find out.

    1. Wow I like that – only problem would be is if you get to the shingles you would be pushing up against them. Otherwise, brilliant

        1. Absolutely! IGNORE IT!

          Go with the NAM, it’s been out of it’s mind so, sure,
          that one will be correct.

          I’m sorry, but words Retrac posted keep
          Swirling about in my mind. We will have this
          vortex spinning with upward motion sitting over
          a soup of moisture. I can’t help but keep thinking
          it will throw tons of snow across Eastern sections.

          I know that DRY air will be an issue, but shouldn’t
          be a problem near the coast. May limit accumulations
          way inland.

          I just don’t see us out of the woods at this point.

          Perhaps something will change.

          We shall see.

          BUT, I REMAIN VERY WORRIED AND CONCERNED ABOUT THIS EVENT!

      2. I wonder if the GFS on instant weather maps is overdoing the ratios thus the reason for more snow. I say this without looking at the QPF numbers and comparing them to the other models, but I would guess they are similar

        1. It uses the Kuchera method looking at temperatures
          in the column. I don’t think it is over doing the ratios, HOWEVER, it may not be handling the VERY COLD
          temperatures in the snow growth zone very well as discussed by TK? I don’t know.

          Even given that, at this moment I would favor
          the GFS over any other model.

          We shall see.

          1. Oh i would too, its been silly good dont get me wrong, im just trying to figure out why its the highest in snowfall with similar QPF to other models. I’m gonna investigate the QPF and compare it to the other models to make sure im not mistaken.

  75. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 8m8 minutes ago
    If you are caught unprepared outside in the New England blizzard you could die it’s that serious of a storm!

    1. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 6m6 minutes ago
      [Sunday] Pressure avg @ 970 mb, typical w/ cat 2 hurricanes; dangerous winds which would cause structural damage / widespread power outages

  77. Old Salty if Gil Simmons is saying that we listen here in CT. He does not hype things. I have said a number of times great meteorologist.
    Two of our counties here have wind watches Fairfield and New Haven. I would not be surprised if more counties had wind alerts along with winter weather alerts.

    1. The Winter Storm Watch up for my county (Western Norfolk) includes in its wording sustained winds from 20-30mph with gusts up to 55mph. There are no additional high wind watches or advisories that i know of. Those kinds of winds very rarely make it this far inland in these situations but maybe this time will be different, who knows. Are you close to the coast down there in CT? I could see you getting some wind there but being further away from the low it shouldn’t be bad.

      1. The two counties the high wind watches are up for are south of me. I am not near the CT coast. The thinking is with
        the low strengthening its going to bring down strong northerly winds here.
        It will be interesting later if the high wind watch gets downgraded to an advisory or upgraded to a high wind warning.
        Will know around 3:30 4:00 this afternoon.

  78. Beautiful morning. Sun’s out in full force. Just completed an invigorating run. Cold, but not brutal. As wintry a landscape in mid February as I can remember. And yes, this includes mid February 1978, mid February 2011, and mid February 2013. Those years were highlighted by snow, but not as much ice on the Charles and other waterways or cold.

    Wind will be the real story this weekend’s storm. I think we can cut the NWS totals by two-thirds or three/fourths. There will be high ratio’s, but little qpf.

        1. I can never read his maps, lol. He and Epstein need to go back to Kindergarten and learn how to color inside the lines 😀

  81. Wouldn’t take any winter storm watches down, even if Boston gets 4 inches. Quantity should not be the main criterion. I’ve always felt that the 6 or 8 inch criterion is arbitrary and meaningless. To illustrate, ice storms often produce little snow, but have far-reaching impact, with long duration power outages, terrible road conditions, etc … They’re the worst kind of winter storms, in my opinion.

    There will be lots of wind and blowing snow from this storm. But, I really do believe we’re in for an under-performing storm in terms of snow. In fact, don’t be surprised Sunday if we see little snow in the Boston area (< 6 inches). This has been a Maine special all along. It's not even going to be a true nor'easter around here. The snow will be mostly backside (N- NW), and that often under-delivers (is that a word?).

    I do wish Henry and others would back off on the hype. Present the facts and don't scare people unnecessarily. They're making themselves look silly. Maybe they want to look a bit on the fringe. All winter storms can be deadly. This one will have that potential, too. But quite frankly, it will have far less impact than an ice storm, or a heavy rain storm at this point in time (with many roofs full of snow; poor drainage).

    1. I firmly believe that you are under estimating the snowfall.
      You have been consistently this way.

      We shall see.

      NAM TIME

  82. I don’t feel a great meteorologist like Harvey Leonard up there in Gil Simmons here in CT are trying to scare people. I like what Gil Simmons says in situations like this I don’t want to scare people but I want to let you know about the potential that exists. When he says something like Old Salty posted you pay attention. This is a guy who gets on the television and says when we get a dusting to 1-3 inches its a whimp storm. He calls it like it is.

  84. Man whoever does not think it’s cold out come hang with me. Was just walking around putting down salt the last couple of hrs and boy it’s cold. Josh great posts today and I hope you are right.

    1. You talking to me again John?

      Yes it was I. I did NOT think it was bad this morning at all.
      It was 10 at my house, with a bit of a biting wind. I understand it
      went down some after that.

      I DID say it was COLD, Just NOT the BRUTAL cold advertised and I stand by that for early this morning.

      My car thermometer on the way to work went down to 8.
      Logan has been stuck at 8 for hours.

      So the day time temperatures are NOT responding. So for day time
      it IS BRUTALLY COLD. I’ll GIVE YOU THAT!!!!

      1. Just saying cold in general to anybody. But now to you. What time should it start in Boston do we know that yet.

        1. From looking at the models, I would say first flakes
          something like 1-4 PM. Just my thoughts.

          Can fine tune later today

  85. There are misconceptions about the GFS and more precip. The GFS is placing higher precip further north and west than the EC/NAM. They both have a similar amount of moisture associated with the system. The best frontogenesis and isentrophic lift track very close to the upper energy so the slightly different placement of the low on the GFS is contributing to the idea that the GFS has more precip. Not really true, just max precip area is placed differently. Look at The 4 sites I document below.

    Example
    Boston 00z EC and NAM .60-.75 Q 00z GFS .95
    Hyannis EC and NAM .80-.95 GFS .75
    Lawrence EC and NAM .60-.75 GFS 1.05
    Worcester EC and NAM .40-.50 GFS .90

    I am right now

    3-6″ West of Worcester into Hartford/Springfield
    7-10″ Worcester East to 495 / MA Pike Region through Providence and Taunton
    9-12″128-Boston South Shore and the Cape (I think the north facing beaches of the cape on the bay side could be a sneak “jackpot” area)
    10-14″ Lawrence East to Cape Ann Area. (Also north side of Cape Ann another potential “jackpot”)

    The winds on the backside on Sunday morning will be a story. Sustained 20-30mph inland gusting to 40mph and sustained 35-45mph at the coast with gusts to 65mph.

  86. Having a tough time with the blog in my phone, the … title is hard to click on in the right comments column to get down to the last comment, lol

  88. Are people tired of the snow or what? There is a massive conservative slant with regards to estimated snowfall totals from our community here. Do I like snow? Yes. Do I favor snow? Yes. However, how could you hug model QPFs with a system like this? To O.S. point earlier, dry air would be a problem for say a Gardner, MA for accumulation not Boston, that makes zero sense to me. The Low will be exploding off our coast in a generally favorable position for snow in ESNE and into Maine. I personally don’t care what the models say for QPF at this point. If we get a low of that strength where it is slated to be Sat night into Sunday, watch out. Maybe, just maybe the conservative crowd will end up being right here, but the trend is our friend and FWIW I revieved 3 inches of snow yesterday in Groveland from a system that was supposed to do diddly squat, so it wants to snow and until I’m proven wrong, I’m not backing away from higher snow totals.

    1. You are in a PRIME spot to get NAILED by this event for sure.

      AND I AGREE 100% with what you said.

      One way or aother, it WILL be interesting to see how it all
      unfolds. I don’t want any damage or anything like that, But I find
      it completely FASCINATING to watch these systems take shape.

    3. AND into their driveways and walks.

      I can’t even imagine the drifts from this.

      The snow was drifting like crazy this morning from the INCH
      of fluff we received yesterday!!

  90. The NAM is taking a little longer to entrain the most copious amounts of Atlantic moisture into the system. It is not flat out wrong, but perhaps a bit slow with it?

    2. I saw the NAM drying up the precip in areas as a function of the developing low taking over and creating a dry wedge during the process. Something to watch for sure.

      1. It’s funny, because it show the NAM coming out a bit farther South, so you would think it would end up in almost the
        perfect location to Nail us. Nope, located to NAIL MAINE.

        All day yesterday They were saying IF the storm comes farther
        South, then the heavier Snow would come farther South as well.

        NAM doesn’t do that.

        Waiting on the other runs.

  91. I am with you go for snow. I think people are tired of snow which I completely understand but people are being too conservative. JMA your numbers make very good sense to me. I still think boston overachieves and gets over a foot. No way 6 inches imo, just not gonna happen. We shall find out soon enough.

  93. Looking at the HIGHER Resolution models, I am getting the sense
    that the Dry zone depicted on the regular NAM (32km resolution)
    is NOT depicted so much. OR lasts a much shorter period of time.

    This suggests to me that over time the regular NAM will come around
    and have that area filled in and the snow amounts WILL GO UP.

    We shall see. Perhaps I’m fullashit!

    1. I so glad that came up last night because I forgot about that piece. It stung me on some totals during a storm last year If my memory serves. That’s what’s so great about the weather is the variables you have to think about. That’s also what’s great about this blog. What do they call that, collective wisdom right..

  98. Per Skywarn email I just got from the NWS…..”Model trends have been slightly further east so Winter Storm Watches have not been expanded into portions of Western New England at this time but will bear close watching”

    Clearly the NWS is discounting the GFS which had foot totals as far west as central MA and my area in northern CT. Will be interesting to see if the 12Z GFS backs down on these – I am thinking it will.

  100. I just did and that foot area now comes into northeastern CT and for MA east of the CT River Valley.
    I would expect areas in SNE that don’t have a winter weather alert like my county will at very least be put under a winter weather advisory. I am more curious what happens to those wind watches in effect for Fairfield and New Haven counties in CT and if other wind alerts are posted.

    1. Euro/GGEM/NAM/FIM are all less in their snow totals than the GFS for Boston, and particularly areas to the west in central MA and northern CT.

  103. The gfs snowmap doesn’t make any sense, some places in Mass gets more snow than some coastal areas in northeast maine? If you look closely at the snowmap there is a spot in northeast maine where it’s only red, which is 11 inches l, yet some places in sw boston get more? I have a feeling the gfs might be wrong on this

    1. This is because the rapid development of the secondary low forms sooner and more southwest. This would place greater emphasis on snow in eastern MA and less on eastern Maine as the low slides more east and less north.

  104. The GFS has been by far most consistent this winter. I typically don’t place to much credence on models, but I do agree with 12-18 for Greater Boston and local surrounding communities east of 495 and north of Foxboro.

  105. Where that low formed was a key in determining snowfall amounts. To me the only question was how much snow are we going to get. IF that low forms further to the south and west the chances for higher snow totals would increase where a low further north would produce lower snow totals.

  106. Not sure if anyone has been noticing the inverted (norlun) trough that has been showing up on the NAM and a few other models. It is oriented in a NW to SE position between the parent clipper storm and redeveloping coastal. This would produce an enhanced band of more significant snow somewhere across southern NY, NYC area, SW CT, and LI. JJ, you would be close to getting into this band. Will be interesting to see if this materializes. I see no evidence of it at all on the GFS.

  108. Mark its always interesting where those narrow bands of heavier snow setup shop. Your under one of them you know it but you go a couple miles away snowfall totals are much less.
    Be honest I am more concerned about the wind potential than the snowfall potential right now. This wind is going to blow the snow all over the place. Good luck measuring it for anyone that does measure snowfall.

    1. I agree that the wind is going to be the big story here. I am a spotter for the NWS and report the snow totals in Coventry. I expect I will have to measure in like 37 places during this one 🙂

      1. With the wind and blowing of the snow I would not be surprised here in CT if there are blizzard conditions at times
        but I don’t see us making to official blizzard criteria.

        1. I agree, I think this one is going to look more like a blizzard in many locations than the last one, despite the lower snow totals.

  111. From AmericanWx:
    12z UKMET is north – not much QPF.
    12z GGEM has 0.5″ QPF or less for all of SNE
    12z RGEM is weak as well with 6″ or less of snow thru 8AM Sunday for all of SNE

    As this point, it is the American models (SREF/GFS) vs the Foreign models. Will be interesting to see if the Euro splits the difference.

  113. Winter Storm Watches have been expanded west into Tolland and Windham Counties in CT. All of Worcester County is included as well.

  115. 12z Euro is not impressive. Further south but also weaker, does not develop as explosively and track is a bit more offshore. Drops only 0.5″ QPF from Worcester eastward to Boston including most of RI. 0.75″ QPF from the outer Cape to Cape Ann/PSM area. Maine still gets hammered.

  116. 12z Euro QPF about .55″ for Boston. Do the math on ratios, etc. I’m thinking about 8″ for Boston as it stands now, generally 6-10″ east of Worcester, down to Providence. Less south and west of there. More towards Cape Ann and especially into Maine, the jackpot zone. I’ve trimmed my numbers for SNE a bit. Dry air gets the better of this one. Winds will be the story. Hurricane force gusts on the Cape.

  118. Ryan ‏@RyanMaue 48s48 seconds ago
    12Z NAM-WRF 4km puts 1-inch QPF from Boston to Maine along Atlantic coast. Plenty for 12”+ snow thru Sun evening

  119. I wonder if the big 3 (Fisher, Harvey, Pete) are still thinking 12+” for Boston in light of the 12z guidance

    1. I feel they should. I’ve never viewed this storm as major, other than the wind. It may be the most over-hyped storm this winter. The interior may not even get a moderate snowfall, let alone a major snowfall. Plus, the interior won’t be nearly as windy as the coastline.

      Of course, we’ll have to wait and see what unfolds. But, should it be the kind of windy, but limited in terms of snow, storm I think it will be, I’d hope that Bernie Rayno and others who kept tweeting (and still do) that end of days are near for SNE would apologize. It is unnecessary, and ultimately counterproductive. And on top of that, unprofessional.

  120. I know others will disagree, but DO NOT discount the gfs/sref/nam-wrf solutions!

    Remember that old saying? Fool me once???

    We’ve been fooled several times in the past 3 weeks (and yes, I realize the setup is different). NOT saying it’s a lock for any big snows (snow probably not the star of this storm anyway), but I’m saying don’t let your guard down!

    1. I agree, and believe me, the Euro was not that far off at all from something bigger. Guard should not be let down regardless. We are talking region wide blizzard/near blizzard conditions whether we are dealing with 5, 10 or 15″ of snow.

          1. True, but 5″ of very fine small flake snow away from the immediate coast where winds will it be that bad is not a big deal at all. Add 10″ to that and it’s a different ballgame.

        2. I agree Ace, just commenting that even with 5″ you have a blizzard and the impact is significant. Cant let your guard down either way. But yes, 15″ adds a whole new dimension of issues in terms of snow removal.

  121. Amazing the complete disparity between the American and International models continues. Will likely not have a complete handle on snow accumulations until tonight when there will presumably start to be more model consensus forming.

    One thing for certain – lots of cold, wind, and blowing/drifting snow region wide.

  122. The Euro hasn’t handled Northern Stream systems well at all this winter or any system for that matter, so why would we put much stock in what it’s showing? Like I said before QPF output of the models is sort of meaningless at this point. Getting close to radar watching.

    1. What are you basing that on? The last northern stream system, the one that came through just yesterday, it performed very well with. QPF output is not meaningless. The models are showing low QPF for a reason, and the reason is simply that since there’s not much moisture in the northern stream, the system will need Atlantic moisture. And it will get that moisture, but too late to dump it all on us. That’s why Maine is the jackpot. Maybe you’ll be right, but I’m at least trying to outline the scientific reasons why this is unlikely to be a blockbuster snowfall. The GFS is a little quicker to grab the moisture, and throws it back at us more, so if that verifies we would have larger totals. But I am more in agreement with the foreign models, and to some extent the NAM, although as JMA pointed out it is probably too slow getting the moisture.

      1. ok, let’s slow down a minute. Are you really going to tell me the Euro has handled things well this winter? Come on. I’m basing it on the fact that over the last few weeks we have received our snow dumps from northern stream systems the Euro has not performed well with them. Lets not forget NYC and calls for 3 feet. The models in general have underdone QPF amounts for these systems as well whether it had to do with ocean enhancement, unexpected lift in the atmosphere, what have you. All I am saying is this storm when it hits the relatively warm ocean waters in a position that is very conducive for snow around here it is going to explode and moisture from the Atlantic will get wrapped into the system from east to west. The trend is more more not less and that’s what I’m going with along with the above points.

  123. My feeling is that the GFS has handled most if not all the BIG snow storms
    very well this Winter. So now because the Foreign models don’t agree, we’re going to toss the GFS? Not wise in my opinion.

    Could the others be correct this time around? Certainly. But look at the History
    this Winter.

    CMC has SUCKED
    EURO has SUCKED
    UKMENT was decent with a funky pattern, BUT NOT necessarily with the big snow
    storms.

    THe NAM does give me pause, BUT it appears to be coming around.

    I HATE THIS UNCERTAINTY!!!!

    Are we getting a big storm OR NOT, that’s ALL I WANT TO KNOW

    and the models CANNOT DELIVER the answer

    Until such time as PROVEN WRONG,
    I AM IN CAMP GFS.

  125. Down in the Attleboros today visiting my mom, amazing how much less snow there is down here closer to Providence. Maybe a foot and a half on the ground but that’s a stretch. Providence has received around 30″ less snow than Boston so far this winter. Really shows the local nature of some of these storms.

    1. Yes, but I was at the Providence College basketball game Weds. night and downtown Providence is still a mess driving/parking wise. I haven’t been into Boston, so I can only imagine what that’s like…

  126. I’m in camp going to Florida tomorrow morning. 4 weeks ago I wrote how I was nervous that I was nervous the first big storm was going to come while I was in Florida and I was going to miss it…times have changed! I still despise Florida as a place, but you got to take the kids where the grandparents are I suppose…especially when the grandparents are paying airfare.

  127. From HARVEY

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 13m13 minutes ago
    The strongest winds will be all day Sunday…NE very early, then N, then NW #wcvb

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 14m14 minutes ago
    Key 2 forecast is the backlash Sun. Morning…looks to be heaviest & last longest along coast #wcvb

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 16m16 minutes ago
    Light to moderate snow will slowly accumulate Sat.Nt. #wcvb

    To me, it sure seems as if HARVEY is FIRMLY in CAMP GFS which
    shoe a GINORMOUS backlash snows along the coast.

    1. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
      @JpDave13 I am definitely not in camp GFS…all models give us significant snow

      So I guess it depends upon what’s considered signifcant???

      I still don’t get this at all.

      1. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 37s38 seconds ago
        @JpDave13 So far, I would say yes…12 or more may be confined to immediate coastline.

      2. I don’t consider 8″ of snow to be significant. Maybe it’s bc the new significant measure is 1-2ft, lol

        1. haha. I forget who i was conversing with on here the other day, but a model was posted of the euro totals from this and tuesday’s storm. And someone said “it’s really not that much. Just 15 inches.”

          THE NEW NORMAL!

  130. When I saw Harvey say key is the backlash, I can’t help but think this will be a low confidence forecast. It’s apparent we miss the first thrust of precip entirely and will be trying to pinpoint where the backlash sets up. Another thing is the forward speed. Relying on backlash with a quickly moving system fighting dry air all point to lower amounts

  131. OS, we’re getting a big wind storm at the coast. I’m not discounting that. Just not a whole lot of snow, I think.

    Outside the U.S., terminology regarding the word “storm” is very specific to wind (not rain, snow, or other precipitation). So, for example, many of the seriously powerful Atlantic Lows that traverse Scotland and head towards Norway are NOT big rainmakers in the Netherlands by any stretch of the imagination (often as little as .2 qpf – often, light, spitting rain or rain showers). But, they’re often big time wind makers. And that’s what mets over there call storms. Wind speed (sustained) must be at least 8 on the Beaufort scale to qualify as a storm. Storms are then further differentiated by adjectives: Storm (8 on the scale), strong storm (9), very strong storm (10), etc … until you get to hurricane which I believe is 12 on the Beaufort scale. When it rains or snows a lot, but there’s little wind, mets over there do not call those events storms. Hence, storm is a function of wind first and foremost, according to the Europeans.

  132. Significant / not significant. Both arguments have their merits. To me its also…Location Location Location. If you are in Boston and dealing with the mess that’s their right and you have get around by car, foot or public transit even a 5 inch snowfall with high winds will really just add insult to injury. Maybe in the burbs south of the city it might take a little more (my guess here say 10 inches) since the clean up has been a little easier. Location, Location, Location.

  133. Sorry, I cannot DISMISS the possibility of getting NAILED here.
    I am WELL aware of these other possibilities and perhaps they will pan out.

    We shall see.

  135. Will this be the biggest storm of the winter NO. Will there be impacts YES. The snow totals MAY not end up being impressive but I have a feeling those wind gusts will be and if anyone is unfortunate to lose power with these cold temperatueres your probably going to feel this storm had a major impact on you.

    1. Don’t forget, not all of this comes from the second low. Some of it falls Saturday afternoon and evening, especially S & W.

  140. Going to down-tweak the #’s slightly inland. We will have a light to moderate snowfall from the initial storm Saturday afternoon/evening. The key to the entire forecast is the development of the new low center and there are factors both for and against big snow depending on where you are. Best chance of 12+ is basically from the runways at Logan airport northward. Forget it south and west of there. There is going to be some tight snow gradient going on across the western flank of the second low center, though the snow area will be trying to expand at the same time the storm moves away, so there is some wildcard material there. This is a little different animal than some of the storms that produced the big amounts. One difference is that the moisture is actually somewhat limited and we have to depend on Atlantic moisture, which does not get fully involved for a while, so we’ll need to see how much of that is incorporated into the back-lash.

    Also, as I previously mentioned, the temperatures in the snow growth region are critical and will probably support smaller flakes than many storms we have seen this season. That WILL INDEED limit the fluff factor despite how cold it is going to be. Cold does not automatically equal fluff factor.

    CT and RI and parts of central and western MA will probably get more snow accumulation out of the Saturday portion of the storm than the Sunday one.

    And also as stated, it’s the wind, cold, and blowing snow that will be the major factors. We luck out a little bit on coastal flooding except some north-facing shores that will likely see moderate flooding at high tide times as the tides are a little higher than during the previous system.

      1. 6-10 inches of fairly dense but dry snow, but it will blow around lots on Sunday morning.

        First flakes: Noonish Saturday.
        Steadiest: 4PM to 10PM Saturday.
        Lull: Late Saturday night.
        Backlash: Pre-dawn to late morning Sunday.
        Lingering flakes Sunday midday to early afternoon.
        Blowing & drifting: Pre-dawn Sunday through Monday.

    1. I think this is a generally good map.

      We must not lose sight of the fact that this system is initially a clipper or Arctic wave in the truest sense of the word as a couple days ago the disturbance was north of the Arctic Circle.

      Take a look at a radar shot of the Midwest today and compare the snow shield on this thing to the snow shield on the Groundhog Day storm. Big time dependency on Atlantic moisture wrap-in upcoming. Harvey hinted at that in his tweet above.

    1. Which is why I said some areas will get a light to moderate amount of accumulation just from the Saturday part, but most of that will be south and west of the city – most, not all. 🙂

  147. The models may be disagreeing on snow, but they are in sound agreement on wind.

    15z and 18z on Sunday …. They all have btwn 50-70 mph wind gusts hitting east coastal Massachusetts. Even if we take off 20%, thats gusts btwn 40-56 mph for about 6 hrs.

    1. Don’t be surprised if that happens. 🙂

      We may see sun shining through altostratus before the day is out here in eastern MA too.

      1. TK- I am general agreement with your thinking. I might be a tad higher Boston 8-12″ as opposed to 6-10″ and I still think the north facing beaches of the Cape may get into a narrow long fetch band off the ocean. That *could* give them very localized heavier accumulation. Otherwise if I had to pick a 12″+ jackpot it would be Cape Ann. You are spot on about the Saturday to Sunday system evolution and the potential late day sunshine!

  151. NWS coming back UP IN THE WORLD!!!

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES…EXCEPT 8
    TO 10 INCHES ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. SNOW DRIFTS OF
    SEVERAL FEET DEEP CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

    1. That was pretty much what they had been saying, other than it’s enhanced wording for the blizzard warning area.

          1. this morning’s snow map clearly had
            8-10 inches. Go up on the block and check
            Retrac’s post. It’s there OR was there earlier.

    1. Well this is the first storm after receiving 74 inches of SNOW in 2 weeks time.

      Makes a DIFFERENCE, don’t you think?

  154. Tk do you think the stormy pattern will break after Wednesday’s event? I know the cold will last but will this be our final major storm?

  155. I have ZERO evidence of this…with that said I am going to go out on a limb and say after this weekend we don’t get much more snow. I’ve seen many winters that went dead after Presidents Day. While this winter has always done the opposite of what I wanted, I will make this call.

  156. NAM’s fairly accurate with short-term guidance. Don’t discount it. My hunch is GFS will be lower with its amounts with the next run. We’ll see.

  158. JMA… I still think a foot is easily possible in the city of Boston. But it will highly depend on the intensity associated with the backlash/banding on the western periphery of the new low center.

    OS… That 500 mb is kind of deceivingly negative. It’s just the evolution of the 500mb low going from one position to another with a little jump in between. It’s not the type of negative tilt that’s going to capture and delay a surface low very much.

    1. It is possible but it is on my high end right now. Going 8-12″ but I really think 9-11″ but that is an odd range. Some interesting miss potential with this one. Too little particularly Cape Ann, north and way too much west of Framingham.

    2. TK, I read yesterday (I think it was on WSI) that the last time we had a storm with 500mb was in 1966. Does that sound right to you?

        1. I think an overnight lull is an almost certainty. Maybe not a complete shutoff to the snow but very little. It all depends on the first thump and the backlash

  164. I think there will be a lot of people surprised at how little snow this produces. Inland areas, specifically. Boston should see 8-12″, although I favor the lower end of that range. But outside of I95, 6-8″ should be common, and if this trends towards the NAM and UKMET solutions it could be even less. By all means though, this is a significant winter storm, just one where snow may not be the biggest factor. Blizzard conditions likely at least at the coast (I think the NWS has the blizzard warning a little too far inland).

    Looking ahead, I remain concerned about Tuesday/Wednesday. I think that ends up as a big snow producer. It should be loaded with Gulf moisture, and I don’t buy the out to sea trend some models had shown. Looks like they’re starting to correct back. And, unfortunately, I see some strong indications for a major rain event 10 days or so from now. TK has mentioned this possibility as the GFS has shown it with some consistency, and now the Euro is on board. Long way out, but worth watching. Been a long time since we had one.

    1. We don’t need ANY RAIN with all that SNOW around.

      I’d prefer a MISS, however, I’d rather we pile on the snow than have
      the rain.

    2. WXWatcher – I just commented the same below about the midweek threat. Models are shifting back towards a higher impact event and the system should be QPF loaded.

      Not convinced on the rain event though. GFS is cold and potentially stormy thru the period and has lost the rain storm. And the long range Euro has been less than impressive this winter.

  165. TK, curious what makes you think we are going to have a break in the stormy pattern after this? I looked at the entire run of the 12z GFS and it is more of the same – big trough in the east, lots of cold, and coastal storm threat after coastal storm threat right through March 1st.

    Also, pretty much the entire 12z model suite shifted back closer to the coast with the midweek storm threat and they all depict a glancing blow at this point with light to moderate snow amounts, but close to something more significant.

  166. HERE COMES THE BACK TRACKING!!!!

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 14m14 minutes ago
    Storm may track slightly farther east. May need to lower amounts slightly #wcvb

  167. I think will look back at this storm system and the wind will be talked about more than the snow. There will be snow but the wind will be the bigger deal.

  168. From what I am seeing, I am hoping for 8 inches or less out along 128. The problem once again is that there are too many variables at play and this thing does not start for 24 hours. I’m figuring the blend is 65% forecasting, 25% last minute-casting, and 10% now-casting. 🙂

  169. One thing about the NAM …

    It seems to deliver some decent front end precip to eastern and southeastern Mass before this lull hits …..

    At that time though, it has surface temps of 30 to maybe 35F.

    Now, I do realize at that time, the surface winds are S or maybe SE, backing towards E, etc.

    However, I have heard nothing in forecasts about the temps recovering that quickly tomorrow, even in SE Mass.

    So, perhaps that initial thump of precip is worth a bit more snow than the NAM is projecting. I understand its the temps in the snow growth region, but I’m sure the model takes the boundary layer into account as well, ie how, how well will it accumulate, etc ?

      2. And now we wait for a little later tonight or early tomorrow when this model chips a bunch off the snow amounts, especially south and west of Boston.

      1. Yes !!

        To be honest, over the last 2-3 days, I’ve spent much more time on the wind maps then the snow total maps and that is the worst wind scenario I have seen so far, on this storm.

        1. Agree. That’s pretty brutal and to be honest, the GFS
          usual is UNDER DONE on the Wind. It’s the NAM
          that over does the wind, If I remember correctly.

  172. Thats a big hit and I’m not even focused on the snow, which is impressive too.

    Thats painting a bad wind scenario for the south shore ….

    Now what to think …..

    1. See above. TK expects the most consistent model on this to come DOWN
      with the snow totals. We shall see.

      1. Thanks OS …..

        I dont know what to think.

        I certainly trust TK, his accuracy is so good …. Yet, as you point out, the GFS has been remarkably consistent.

        The NAM really did lead on the last storm, seeing its OTS trend, but was awful on the previous 2.

        Put all that together and I am feeling uncertain.

        50 to maybe 60 mph gusts on a NNW wind (NAM) vs approaching 70mph on a N, maybe NNE wind is a big difference for Marshfield and the coastline, in general. I certainly hope the NAM is the winner here !!

    1. That IS a different take – very much a GFS hugging and kissing take (hey, it’s Valentine’s Day weekend) – and has me concerned. I don’t see that much qpf on any of the other models. Is he really suggesting over 1.2qpf in Boston? That WOULD translate into lots of snow.

    2. My lord this guy is a model worshiper. He has gone from needing to have to call a doctor when it lasted 4 hours after viewing whatever ECMWF run was most recent and now he is all 180 and tweeting out 18z runs of NCEP models.

        1. Correction – Tweet whatever model is showing the most accumulating precip / snow. Drives more traffic to his website…

  174. OS, No, I’m not ecstatic. First, I may still be proven wrong. 2. It’s not about being right or wrong. True, I’m not hoping for loads more snow. But, if I were to see a set-up conducive to loads of snow I’d certainly say so. I just don’t see the set-up as conducive to big snows. But, I think this system is a major wind producer, and will therefore have some real impact.

      1. So explain your reasoning for the big amounts versus most other thoughts out here. I’m curious. 🙂

  175. Its funny ….

    If you overlap the 500 mb charts of the 18z NAM and 18z EURO at hr 48, which is 18z on Sunday, the placement of the 500mb feature is in the same place and the same intensity ….

    And yet, subtle differences on the surface low and the affects on New England.

    1. Smart man. He lowered amounts and then put a plus sign after each.

      Hard to know what he means but I would be very satisfied if it stays within his numbers. Although what they will do with another foot of wind driven snow in Boston remains to be seen. Or anywhere in this area really

      1. What’s Harvey’s numbers for boston Vicki . I did here him say first flakes should hit Boston at 4 you agree tk.

  177. Mark… The short answer to your question about the pattern break: slight retrogression in the northern stream, some deamplification, and a stronger Pacific jet.

      1. Agreed. I don’t think Boston even comes that close. Boston will crack 90 inches, but probably stall out at 95 or so. To me, 1995-1996 remains the most remarkable stretch of storms in my lifetime. Not because of the size of one or more of the storms, but the consistency of that winter: From early December through early April one storm after another.

  179. The thing about 95-96 was yes it was the snowiest winter on record but we didn’t get the amount of snow all at once like this winter up in Boston. I think this stretch of snow records that Boston acheived will stand for quite sometime.

    1. JJ exactly the thought I had. In 1969 we had several storms in a row but if I am not mistaken we have surpassed that record.

      1. In mid July 1996 we were helping to move the manure and shavings like that had accumulated where we had our horse boarded. In the middle was still a good deal of snow.

    2. True. I guess I’m a person who admires consistency, and 95-96 was like clockwork in terms of having a storm every 10 days. It was a very long winter as a result. This winter, on the other hand, didn’t get going until late January (snow, that is; temperature-wise it got cold by early January) and has hammered us thus far for an 18 day period. But, by next week we could be done with the snow blitz, and we could be seeing a much warmer March than we did last year, which would effectively end most snow threats.

        1. A few more days to go. And another 10 days of well below average temperatures. And, it will snow in March, but my early estimation is very little. Not as little as March 1979 (trace), but only a few inches. I think Spring lovers – I don’t count myself as one – are in for a treat by mid March.

      1. Yes, Matt’s map says that. I don’t think we’ll get that much. But, I really like his maps, especially the combination of snow and wind maps.

  181. Just reading now; about 8:45 ish. Vicky, I’m with you. I have two hair dryers AND a hot glue gun (figured that can only help)! Positive thoughts, group goals, it’s got to work.

  184. Tk, to answer your question.
    The only answer I can give you at the moment is I’m sticking with the
    consistency of the GFS. Plus, we have this vortex of lift sitting on top of an ocean pushing moisture over the top of an extremely cold dome of air. It spells more snow to me.

    Is there anything that could MUCK that up? Certainly. We shall see.
    Could I be wrong? Yup.

    Time will tell. I DON’T LIKE what I see and I am worried. Sorry.

  187. Good evening!! Been very busy with preparing for the season to kickoff. You can just feel the collective misery among conversations and just trying to get around. Today I saw someone poking there car out only to get clipped and the person sent to hospital. I’m sure this is happening everywhere. My wife said that while she was on the pitiful commuter rail yesterday the conductor says this train is going to Florida, and a huge ovation.

    All I wanna say is thank the good lord the brunt of this storm is hitting Maine. Also and I’m sure you guys have seen it on models but a slight but noticeable pattern change is come after next weekend. Finally !!! Have a good night everyone

    1. Make sure it is hot water as it freezes faster. Freeze occurs when pressure builds up and I’m guessing I’m not telling anyone what they do not know

      1. It made a rather large gesture tonight to meet the GFS.
        Way more than an olive branch. NAM is almost there.

        1. It did and I didnt think it would. That makes me wonder what is coming on the 00z GFS.

          We had a general slight eastward shift most of the day, but not on the 18z GFS or 00z NAM.

          Also, now the low only makes Boston’s latitude or maybe even stays just south of Boston. That is not helpful to get the wind to NNW. I think that helps keep the wind N or maybe NNE, more onshore.

          Was feeling a bit of momemtum to maybe a bit less impact earlier today, but not at the moment.

    1. I’m riding my GFS horse all the way OS. I made my choice two days ago and I’m sticking with it. Standing with my 6-12 Worcester

  194. Hi guys,

    I read the site all the time and appreciate what you all do to keep us non weather experts informed. I’ve got a trip to Aruba leaving Wed very early morning. I was wondering what threat the Tues/Wed potential storm might have? Im fine,with leaving a day early, but I’d rather not be late :). Thank you for the insight!

    1. 5 days out, its likely to change so …. just know the possibility of the next storm is in that general timeframe and you’d probably get a lot better decision making weather information later Sunday or Monday morning.

    2. i would hold off until sunday to change anything, will get a better understanding then after this storm system

  195. I am sticking with my 12-15 inches, storm like this will not dry slot imo. Let’s see what the 00z GFS has to say.

    1. Not over, but it will be delivered an Ali quick left jab, to be followed by a left-right combination a week later, with the knock-out right hook sure to follow by the time mid to late March rolls around.

      1. NAM will be coming down the back stretch with the GFS by 12z run tomorrow. Did some serious catching up with tonhight’s 0Z run.

        We is in for it folks. YIKES!

  201. My son passed along his cold to me and I have felt quite miserable all day. I guess it will be a good weekend to try to get some rest.

  202. Eric Fisher — UGH:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 3m3 minutes ago
    I *do* still think we could have very significant snowstorm potential Tue night/Wed. Hopefully something changes before then.

  203. Back in Feb. 2013, here are the high temps for the 4 days right after NEMO ended …

    36F, 45F, 44F, 42F.

    Just saw Harvey at 11pm. His forecast high the day after this storm passes by ….

    9F. ….. Thats after likely being below zero Sunday night.

    I certainly hope its all hands on deck by the electric companies this weekend, because these forecasted temps will be unforgiving, if anyone loses power.

  206. This ALL OUT INSANITY!!!!
    I want to say HISTORICAL but I think HYSTERICAL is more apropos!!!
    AND I do NOT mean as in FUNNY!!!

  208. 4.8
    I think the oncoming clouds will prevent a sub Zero reading here. Rate of fall
    has slowed significantly. Night all.

    I saw at 11 it was already 10 below at Norwood Airport! WOW!

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