Weekend Outlook

364 Comments

7:37PM

SUMMARY…
This update focuses on the weekend event, which is pretty much looking the same to me as it has all along. After a very cold overnight, clouds roll in by early Saturday and snow approaches and overspreads the region by mid to late afternoon and continues into the evening. All the while it will be trying to warm up from the south, but the wedge of cold air will hold strong near the ground while it warms a little more easily aloft. This means that the snow will transition to sleet and rain across the South Coast of RI and into southeastern MA, with freezing rain actually more likely in all but immediate coastal areas. Where it stays all snow, a moderate accumulation is expected. Lesser accumulation is expected in the mix/change area, with least toward the South Coast where the snow will last less time and the chance of plain rain is highest. The mix/change will be mainly a Saturday night and Sunday morning occurrence before the entire system exits from west to east later Sunday, opening the door for another blast of Arctic air with dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Also continuing to monitor the possibility of a storm nearby on Wednesday, and this is still possible, though current indications point more to a northern stream system passing through with snow showers and not really phasing up with southern stream energy off the coast. Jury is still out on what may take place here. By late in the week, it’s dry and cold again.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod, colder in some valleys. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of 3-6 inches northwest of a line from northern Plymouth County MA to Providence RI, and 1-3 inches elsewhere except less than 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast eventually into more of RI and southeastern MA, northwestward into the Boston area by dawn. Temperatures steady in the 20s but rising to the lower 30s South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, plain rain immediate South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

364 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook”

  1. Thanks tk hope dad is better. What would your timing for boston be and what would you say for snow before the changeover .

      1. Thanks tk. This will be the 5th weekend in a row working a storm ugh!!!! These last 4 weeks have been nothing but working snow as there is just so much to clean up I’m behind at home with my own cleanup cause I have not been at home. I’m more than ready for this winter to wrap up as I’m sure I’m not alone. Many thanks tk and have a great weekend.

  2. I’ve worked 90 hrs of overtime just the last two weeks alone. I’m very grateful for that but boy I’m just beat.

  6. may crack the freezing mark w/this storm… be interesting to see if winter will yield in the suburbs for a few hours

  7. Interesting how the snow melts/compresses a fair amount faster when it is on the ground and not the deck. The deck is not elevated but it is deck material of course and has cold air beneath.

      1. Snow is about five feet or more solid on our deck. There is no way it could be shoveled. Glad it cannot collapse

        1. Similar eye popping depth here, but it (our deck) is held up off the ground.

          Some wet snow then rain in our area ……

          I’m not too optimistic how some structures are going to fare on the south shore tomorrow night.

    1. Still overplaying the maritime influence and keeping snow totals lower closer to the coast and out to 495

    2. Charlie, you would make a killer meteorologist out in Seattle with your drumbeat of calling for rain everytime, and you’d actually be right more often than not. You’ll get your rain and warmth just not anytime soon

  9. I dont know what it will or wont lead to, but the 00z GFS has a stronger northern stream system north of the Great Lakes by Monday afternoon …….

    1. Redevelops up in Nova Scotia.

      My wife is flying out Wednesday for a deserved mini vacation and I’m trying to figure out what this system is going to do.

      I know the EURO backed away for one run anyway at 12z.

      I just hope we have some consistency on it by Sunday, one way or the other, in case I need to encourage her to fly out on Tuesday.

      1. 978 mb up north of Nova Scotia, much … much more intense at that general location than either the previous 18z or 12z runs.

          1. Thats the current idea and lets hope it stays that way.

            It does look like a significant northern stream system, so, the next few days (probably into Monday) will let us know if it rather harmlessly stays to our north or …… if in some way, the jet stream reshapes to either allow it to phase with a southern stream system or redevelop to our south.

  12. WeatherWiz… Sorry was up on Zion earlier and didn’t check the blog. Yes, I figure about 3 inches. It may potentially overperform slightly so we’ll have to keep an eye out for that. A slug of moderate precip. may come through JUST before it’s warm enough aloft for sleet.

      1. When I lived in Norwood back in the early 70s it could 50 degrees in the morning up by the high school…40 in the center and 30 down at the airport.

    3. I am in Norwood now, across from the tower and it is freezing here. I can’t believe that this area will see a 50 degree temp swing today with rain.

      1. Was thinking the same thing. Speaks to just how shallow the cold air is because this storm isn’t exactly a powerhouse that plows in warm air.

  15. Just made a small tweak to the blog for wording as well as to tuck the 3-6 snow area a little closer to Boston.

      2. Yes. But I needed to get Boston as much as I could while causing the least problems possible in doing that. We have a record to break here. 😛

        1. Not that it matters but you do know that Boston and no problems (snow) is a bit of an oxymoron at the moment eh? 😉

          1. I’d say they were more influenced by NWS who issued a new snow map right after I updated. Coincidence. 😉

  16. 2 projects today ….

    Getting all the snow off of the top of our camper and some off of the back of our deck.

    I feel like the south shore is not in a good place for this event. Decent amt of precip (.75 melted ??) and whether its wet snow, cold rain or a combo of the 2, not a ton of the old snow is going to melt and we’re just going to add weight to the snowcover. 🙁

    1. Great weekend daughter and family picked to head to your area ! Hotel has a pool and restaurant and ocean view though which makes me think it will still be tons of fun

  17. Some (not all) are going to be surprised by how hard it is to dislodge the cold air everywhere but the immediate shoreline especially south during this event.

    1. Looks like this might wrap up mid morning? Would be nice to not be “trapped” all day in the house. Don’t tell my wife I said that. 🙂

      1. I think it will be fairly quick-ending. A very weak and progressive system. The NWS point forecasts and sometimes their zone forecasts always make it sound like the precipitation is going to be lingering all day. Not this time…

        1. Ok cool. Just want to know when it looks over it is so I don’t see snowing again after I clean up. Thanks TK.

  19. Storms like this are really interesting to me (in that weather nerd kind of way). How often do you see it snow with a setup like this? I’m sure TK’s seen it a few times, which explains how accurate his colder/snowier forecast appears to be despite what models have shown. But I (and many others, including the professionals) fell into the trap of thinking a low to our west is automatically a mainly rain event. Good storm to bookmark for future reference. I think the only thing preventing higher snow totals will be a lack of QPF. We won’t get as much of that as areas to our southwest. But with the cold air in place, all this snow on the ground, and the fact that the heaviest precip should arrive near and after sunset, it looks like all or mostly snow will be the result.

    1. I guess it was an easy trap to fall into. As Bernie said yesterday “I should have known better”! and TK did 🙂
      Great call, TK!!!

      1. I LOVED Tk’s comment the other day where he was speaking with a colleague and that person said that this event would separate
        the meteorologists from the Model Huggers and BOY did it EVER!!! I saw so many model huggers it was DEPRESSING!!!

        Now WE KNOW who to trust. Here we have Tk and JMA
        and out there??? Well even the esteemed HARVEY bit
        on the RAIN TRAIN. I’d say ONLY Eric stood his ground and even he wavered some. 😀

  20. 12z NAM getting ever so slightly more bullish on snow in SE Mass.

    Of course, btwn 22z and 03z, the 850 mb temps are a few to many degrees below 0c and the simulated radar shows decent precip.

  21. I’m not surprised!
    Dave Epstein @growingwisdom 9 minutes ago
    Latest long-range 45 day forecast continues to show colder than average temps into April. Memorial Day skiing?

        1. No warming here until all of eastern and central Canada warms. Our flow will be coming from those areas probably until the 4th of July parades.

  22. Good morning and thank you tk for yet another excellent blog post and analysis!
    We are blessed to have you.

    I fear today’s system over achieves. Whether or not it mix/changes in Boston,
    we WILL get a decent front end thump of snow.

    For one thing, please take a look at this composite radar. It looks mighty IMPRESSIVE!

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

    And I give you the latest 6Z Canadian Mesoscale RGEM snow map:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022106/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    That map is under done imho. Look at that run, it keeps Boston ALL SNOW.
    The changeover/mix gets up to the South Shore, Say Weymouth/Rockland/Norwell
    area or thereabout and no Farther N&W. Here is the most Northern Extent:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022106/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

    Very interesting situation and justifies TK nudging the 3-6 Farther South.

    1. I have not been able to and still cannot see the amount of rain some are forecasting for Boston. There is cold air to start, snow which further cools the air, ground cooling, a night time start … it would take a ton of warmer air to overcome all of this.

  24. TK and OS made an excellent call. The storm has not arrived yet of course but a colder scenario has been my thinking as well. We will see what materializes but it was nice to see TK and OS use their heads rather than the models to forecast this one.

  25. 12Z NAM bring mix/change just about to Boston

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015022112/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

    4KM NAM brings it “just” past Boston

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015022112/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_6.png

    Snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015022112/nam4km_asnow_neus_8.png

    Editorial Comment.

    The Canadian Mesoscale RGEM is a very fine model, going out only 48 hours.
    It is Superior in that range to the Canadian Global. Cannot be placed in the same company. In some respects this mesoscale model is superior to the NAM.

    It may very well be locked into THE correct solution. Time will tell.

  27. Re: Rain

    Spoke to my Brother who resides up in Franklin, NH, about 30 miles or so North
    of Concord.

    He is seeing reports that the RAIN is going all the way up to Manchester.
    When I told him that it doesn’t get beyond Boston he flat out would NOT believe me.

    Pretty Funny.

      1. He was adamant!! He would NOT accept what I was saying at all.
        He ended the conversation with OK, we’ll see what happens.

        😀

    1. Yup.

      Looks like the heaviest precip from your post above is really aimed at Boston, points south …….

      With those cold NAM 850 mb temps from 5pm to about 10pm, coinciding with this precip burst, higher snowfall amts occurring are running through my head from Boston to Marshfield.

  30. Total snowfall @Logan to date = 98.7″

    My bet is that Logan sees 100″+ come Sunday morning!!…still well short of the record though.

    1. That’s a virtually lock. I’ll go you one further.
      I believe there is an OUTSIDE chance, Logan Breaks the record by tomorrow AM. How do you like them apples?????

  32. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 7m7 minutes ago
    Latest models look good re: mainly snow this evening. Some rain will move into Buzzards Bay/Cape/Islands.

  33. Look, I know the 10 inches I’m throwing out is a stretch, but in all honesty,
    Boston should come in with 5 or 6 inches, with a slight possibility of more. We’ll have to monitor this evening for trends.

  37. Temperature has risen 32 degrees in three hours to a balmy 20. Just came in off the deck to get another beer while listening to the Red Sox on the radio. Sox lead the Yankees, 4-1, after three. (I can dream, can’t I?)

  38. Credit to Fr. James Martin, SJ:

    A Prayer for Boston:
    Almighty God, who made the green grass on the Fenway, the blue waters of Dorchester Bay and the tan sands on the Cape, we have a simple prayer: Enough with the snow already. Whatever mysterious point you’re making about endurance, or patience or your own awesome power, we get it: we’ve endured, we’re plenty patient and we get that you can do the snow thing. And we know that you know the old joke (since you know everything) about how if the Pilgrims landed in Florida first this part of the country would never have been settled, ha ha, but we love it here. We love the spring, especially on Boston Common. We love the Fall, especially in the suburbs. And we love the summer, especially on Cape Cod, on Cape Anne and on the South Shore. We love all those beautiful parts of your world. But we’ve had it with the snow. I mean, have you looked out my window? So we’d like to ask you to stop sending us the snow. And, just to be clear, when we say snow we also mean freezing rain, sleet, black ice, any kind of flurries and that new creation of yours thundersnow, We promise we’ll be good during Lent, we’ll be kind to one another, and won’t ask for another thing, at least until the Red Sox start to play. Amen.

      1. Based on the latest information, I belive All of the totals
        gets Pushed South and East. You will probably end up
        in the 4-6 zone. We shall see. (I presume you are in Humarock?)

  40. TWC has 1-3 inches for Boston….I got to tell ya’ll it’s 83 degrees in San Juan and is a beautiful morning with some nice showers. I just told my girlfriend this is what heaven must be like and tomorrow will be flying into hell where it’s frozen over…

    1. TJ, trust me when I say this, TWC is full of SHIT!!!

      You will becoming home to another 6 inches of Snow on the ground.

      Have fun and good luck!

  42. OS, I love the idea you have about the snowier scenario. The only reason Logan won’t make double-digit snowfall in the coldest/snowiest scenario is simply lack of enough precipitation. But it is quite true that the 3-6 area I have NW of a BOS-PVD line may indeed have to be adjusted to just inland in much of southeastern MA. Even IF it was to stay all snow in Boston, the atmosphere just above the shallow cold layer would not be cold enough to produce fluff-factor snow this time.

    1. Agreed. I do believe Boston stays all snow with slight chance of sleet mixing in at the end but the QPF totals are too low for 10 inches in Boston.

    2. Well on the potisive side of all snow in our area I don’t need to chip away at my exterior garage rain grate as its a block of ice right now.

      1. One of these days I’m going to have to figure out which place you are in so I can drive by and see this immaculate driveway you keep all Winter. 🙂 I’m up that hill about 3 nights a week for a few hours.

          1. I am still not 100% sure. You’ll have to email it to me sometime. I probably drive by it all the time, or at least last weekend when I was waiting for the plows to come by so we could make it up the hill. They were way late…

  43. 12z RGEM was 100% all snow in Boston. Not only that, but greater Boston was pretty much the jackpot for the area. And that may not be so far fetched. Out west, the precip simply isn’t gonna cut it. But on the border between the rain and snow, you’ll have an area that stays all or mainly snow and also gets into some higher QPF, and therefore comes away as the jackpot. You can see that band very clearly on the RGEM.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022112/rgem_asnow_neus_12.png

    1. I can see this as the most likely scenario now based on the 12z data. I was talking to a colleague who has a similar forecast to mine but his line between 1-3 and 3-6 is about 10 miles further south. I think his forecast may be closer to what happens and I don’t mind being influenced by his thinking at all. We worked together for several years and his analytical skills are amazing.

  44. LOL ….

    Weak as it is, a low passing to our west. High pressure nearing Bermuda. The winds are southerly and now, in northern Plymouth County, with all that, there’s a chance at 3-6 inches of snow.

    Yup, that puts the official topping on the last 4+ weeks of weather.

    1. Remember the comparison the other day to the January 24 event that I was sure was gonna produce less than it did because of a very similar set-up? Yeah that one sent a clear message. 🙂

      1. I do remember you pointing that out.

        Full circle. Lets hope these 2 similar events will end up being the start and end of this amazing stretch.

        1. Unfortunately I do not think this one will be the end, but it will probably be the last “significant” one for February.

          Eyeing a potential event for about March 1.

            1. The potential with that one is a bit worrisome, but at least there is lots of time. We had a similar “potential” showing up on some guidance for this coming Wednesday which is not going to materialize, so perhaps…

              1. Big picture, I’m concerned about the south really starting to flare up going into and througout March and if we’re still in this cold pattern loaded with energy in both streams…….

  46. For a while the coldest was confined to New England, but lately it’s been invading areas further south. As you know, even Florida is pretty chilly right now. But here are 2 shots from the Outer Banks of NC, the first one a satellite shot showing ice forming on the sounds of the Outer Banks, and the second one a visual confirmation.

    #1
    https://scontent-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10954476_831020650303726_3266361985818045373_n.jpg?oh=8cf12192d90339ec0e956ddfb7ff2b4b&oe=558F7262

    #2
    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10940997_831020466970411_7754836063771142271_n.jpg?oh=fc11c6f7c67f65f8417c11dd48170a15&oe=55490329&__gda__=1435390019_50e1412c03b62941aa24cbb966199c30

    1. Ha! Much more of this and we’re not going to have to ‘worry’ about a south wind bringing in warm air LOL.

  47. The mets on this blog are amazing. TK et al nailed this storm, while everyone but Eric on TV was talking the warm scenario. Would be awesome if Boston tops the snow record tomorrow. So glad I found this place. It’s heaven for a weather lover.

    1. Lol everyone knows Eric as the snow bias forecaster, I’ve heard people at the office in Boston put that nickname at him. I saw Eric walking one day, someone yelled at him and said you bring one more snowstorm your gonna get beat up. Obviously kidding eric was instantly scared, ya should have seen him walking faster 🙂 a lot of unhappy folks right now 🙂

  48. Good afternoon, there mad chaos down here of clearing out drains from the impending snow/rainstorm, probably going to see around an inch of rain with temps to moron around 40 degrees spells trouble. Also has anybody looked at the longer range? Talk about a meltdown on its way for March. I’ve heard a couple weather guys talking about a swap in the pattern and rapid snow melt in 10 or so days. And it doesn’t appear to just be a few days. If you can clear a drain or at least clear out your basement you will thank yourself in just a couple weeks. Be prepared!!

    We have about 22 inches of snow currently on ground, the rain should compact it down to around 16-18 inches by tomorrow. Be safe!!

    1. Your high will be 35 or lower tomorrow. You’ll get a few inches of snow then a coating of sleet atop that, then a glaze. Even if it rains at slightly above freezing the ground/snow temp will be cold enough for freezing rain.

      So far it looks lke the only above normal temps in March will be confined to parts of the US Southwest. We “relax” the pattern here after the first week but not likely a quick shift.

      1. Right now my main concern is for the areas in Plymouth to Taunton to Warwick ri, we plan on starting in those areas in 3 weeks 🙂

          2. We don’t seed very much in spring, and when we do, it’s usually early April. Sept/Oct best time, you as well Tk 🙂

        1. I think there should be some bare ground by then just on account of the relaxing of the stormiest pattern and the natural progression due to increasing sun angle. The snow piles, on the other hand, are going to be around quite a while unless they are physically removed. 🙂

        2. Trust me Charlie. Your season won’t begin until May if you’re lucky, ha ha! I’d be curious to know where you get your forecast analysis from. The WISH almanac? 😉

        1. I’ve never been but my wife and I might go down March of next year and then head up to Fort Myers to see the Sox

          1. My sister retired in Ft. Meyers. She loves it! I was planning on a trip down early March, but moving that date forward. With leaking walls/windows and all, I need to stay around to make sure my house doesn’t float away!

  50. Again I don’t usually openly poke fun at media outlets while naming them (I usually leave hints so you can figure out who I mean) so in that continued tradition, a network that goes by the initials “TWC” actually has updated their TV listings in tvguide.com to include 11 hours of coverage today on “Winter Storm Pandora”. 😀

    Oh well, I guess using the storm name kinda gives it away anyway. 😛

  51. Jamacia for 4 days next weekend then when we get back, it’s all about work until next Nov. Crazy time of year as always, been busy all of feb with meetings but we’re ready now. Hope everyone enjoys the day 🙂

  52. Charlie, you would make a killer meteorologist out in Seattle with your constant drumbeat of calling for rain, and you’d actually be right more often than not. You’ll get your rain and warmth just not anytime soon

      1. I honestly hope you’re correct Charlie but in the meantime, you might want to get those powerpoint slides ready to show your customers how snow is also a fertilizer.

  53. In the spirit of calling out media outlet’s can I just say I HATE the Accuweather radar. It always shows too much precip coverage. Really annoying.

  54. Hmmm the NWS just came out with a new snowmap.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-YjgUyCEAAlVO_.jpg

    I guess I’m a little bullish.

    I also see the national radar NOW NOT looking as impressive.

    Oh well.

    I still was saying 4-6 for Boston. I’m sticking with that, however, I may have
    to abandon by stretch amount of 10. Doesn’t appear to be in the cards,
    6 would get us to nearly 105 inches. Pretty damn impressive.

    2. My call for Boston is 4.75″ Six inches however is not out of the question but I don’t see many communities seeing much more than 6 inches. There are still potentials out there in the long term but that is all that they are. POTENTIALS!

  56. Hmmm

    Latest Hrrr (if we trust that), shows the heavier snow NOT commencing until about
    10PM tonight. Then we’ll see what happens. At that time Mix/Rain line about 20-30 miles South and East of Boston. Still going to be close.

  58. Interesting

    Bernie Rayno retweeted
    Gray ‏@Stiddlefrix 2m2 minutes ago
    @AccuRayno Lynchburg, VA 21F with heavy snow, 1/4-1/2mi visibility. 3.0″ snow on the ground… No Winter Storm Warning.

  59. March 1st looks incredibly interesting. That could be the one that breaks the record, in fact, depending on what falls tonight, could top 110 inches for Boston. Simply unheard of for a coastal City. Truly Amazing!!

    1. 32 in pembroke as well. Tried to shovel the back deck but I just didn’t have it in me. I was able to skim some off the top before calling it quits in about 30 minutes. I don’t think I’ve seen so much snow on that porch and my entire yard for that matter but I don’t need to tell you guys that as we are all in the same boat . I’ll give updates later from boston if I can.

  70. Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather 1h1 hour ago
    Each run of the HRRR is colder than previous.

    Yet it shows snow mixing/changing in Boston around 3-4 AM. Will continue to watch that. Boston total 3 inches via the HRRR.

    I would have thought more.

    Oh Well.

  72. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 4m4 minutes ago
    [240 pm] Snow rapidly overspreading Western/Central MA and Northern CT. Visibility dropping/roads will become slick.

  73. Latest RAP model Shows 850MB 0C lines remaining WELL SOUTH of BOSTOn
    for the ENTIRE event. Some conflicting information around for sure.

  75. On the SC border right now on 95. Been 63 since northern FL. Amazing to think that when I get into Virignia the snow will be falling!

    1. You picked a great time to being driving North!!!

      Maybe you’ll be just behind it all and never really get into it.

    2. North if you can view safely view, this will show you a reasonable approximation
      to the current rain/snow line.

      Good Luck

    1. This storm will overachieve but not by much. Boston sees up to 5 inches which is a far cry from 1-3 which has been advertised for the past 72 hours.

      1. Never believed 1-3 inches for a second. We shall see.
        5 inches for Boston may be just right, but it “could” be a tad
        under done. Not bad though. We shall see.

        No flakes just yet, but they’re on the door step for sure.

  85. I was going to say if that Charlie hole doesn’t fill in that 3-6 inch snowfall forecast for my area maybe closer to the 3 than the 6.
    NOWCASTING MODE!

    1. That Charlie Hole isn’t all that important. The stuff behind it is what gives us the majority of our accumulation which occurs later this evening.

        1. Precisely!!! Also, I think the bulk of the dry air to our southwest remains north and west of our region. Charlie Hole spares us.

          1. That is some pretty heavy duty snow.
            IF that gets up here, we WILL way over achieve.
            Not convinced we get into that. Lot’s Of NOWCASTING!!!!

            1. That particular batch moves offshore however plenty of precip to it’s south and west which will not.

  86. Based upon radar composite, the likes of Deleware and Virginia are getting whacked with SNOW! And to think Boston changes over. I think NOT!

  87. Jim Cantore retweeted
    Becky Elliott ‏@AccuWxBeck 38m38 minutes ago
    Woah, what a mess in DC and Baltimore! So many accidents due to the snow. Travel cautiously, if at all.

    1. North and family headed that way today. Can’t remember how far north they hoped to make it but hope all is ok

  88. I saw a tweet earlier I believe it was from Bernie Rayno that northwest of suburbs got more snow than expected.
    As I mentioned earlier parts of PA and NJ upgraded to winter storm warnings.

    2. That goes to show there is plenty of cold air upstairs which will not be easily overcome! If there is plentiful warm air aloft, temps at the surface don’t fall along with the precipitation 😉

  90. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
    Do you feel like you are watching “Ground Hog Day?”…or do you feel like you are living it? #wcvb

    1. See my point above. Temps are dropping with the snow. Obviously there is plenty of cold air throughout the atmospheric column. Warm air above us wouldn’t cause a drop in surface temps upon onset of precipitations 😀

  92. Its been a steady light snow here now for 2 hours. Hasn’t really picked up in intensity.
    Just saw a cut in while watching the Northern Trust Open in Sunny LA and interesting the model that was showing the mix rain area moving over my area this morning has the mix rain line now south and east of me keeping my area in the snow.
    Meterologist Mike Cameron said we might have to up the snow totals.

    1. That’s the extension of snow from Delaware. We may get in on a piece of that. Also note that the Dry Hole is shrinking and not penetrating any further east. I don’t think it makes it this far east.

  94. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ 25s25 seconds ago
    Snow Will Pick Up In Tempo To Moderate Even Heavy At Times… Roads Should Quickly Become Slippery! 3 Up To 6″ Likely

  96. NWS out of Upton, NY leaving up the winter weather advisories for southern CT and NYC area. Got to think where heavy bands setup shop some areas will come close to warning criteria 6 inches.

    1. Afraid to pull the trigger? eh? High End Advisory event or low end warning event. What’s the difference? Honestly, I could care less. 😀

      I’ve had it up the here with the NWS anyway. 😆 👿 😈

  97. I am wondering in the technical discussion the wording will be we don’t feel warning level snowfall will cover a wide area to upgrade to a warning. Well NWS out of Mount Holly, NJ pulled the trigger for some their counties.

  98. I know these guys cannot be trusted, but I thought I’d throw it out there:

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 2m2 minutes ago
    UPDATED FORECAST: 5-9 inches of #Snow for #SEPA #NYC and #NewJersey, Including South Jersey. As well as #Connecticut #Massachusetts and #RI.

    NortheastWeatherHQ retweeted
    tony rizzo ‏@tonyrizzo1216 35s35 seconds ago
    @NEweatherHQ intense snow in Audubon NJ right now. Visibility near zero

  99. Audobon, NJ in Camden County NJ which is in southern part of NJ
    Charlie Hole just over my boarder now. I wonder if its going to be a two act storm like last weekend’s was.

    1. And what station might that be?
      I heard something similar not too long ago on WZLX which oddly enough is affiliated with Channel 4! You’d think they would know better!!!!!!!

      SHAME ON THEM ALL!!!!! It’s TRULY DISGUSTING!!!!!!!

  101. We’re headed out to an early dinner with friends. WE have 5PM reservations, hoping to get it in before the heavy stuff hits. Looks like we’ll get there aok, but coming home
    might be a different story. As long as the wind isn’t howling, I have no problem
    with the snow. I rather like it. My wife, on the other hand, gets very nervous driving
    in the snow. We’ll do the best we can.

    1. My sisters their families and my wife and I are taking our parents out to dinner tonight for their 60th anniversary. Wish the weather was better.

  102. Snow has just about quit as we are experiencing our own little Charlie hole.
    Will be filling in again very soon. Wish this came at 4:30 when we are leaving. 😀

  106. Does anyone know how many inches of snow Logan has had so far this winter? And will we be adding much to that total tonight/tomorrow?

      1. Official was 98.7 before this storm got underway. 8.9 inches to tie and 9.0 to beat the record.

        Will happen on March 1.

  108. BZ stil has rain pretty far west of Boston tonight. That was the 2:00 pm forecast on their web site…video. I’m assuming mets stay pretty much in line by network. I know JR and Pete will typically say of their forecast differs from the other and how

  109. I know during a weather cut in during the Northern Trust Open as I said earlier the future cast model are CBS station uses here in CT no longer has the mix rain line taking over the entire state. It now has the mix rain line south and east of I -84 which was a change from the morning run.

  110. The rough there is nasty. It would be nice if Reteif Goosen wins since he has not won since 2009 and he has battled back issues over the last couple years.

      1. Ahhh…ok that makes sense then. Thanks TK.

        A light steady (and accumulating snow) here in Hingham right now with a temp of 29 (from a high of 32 earlier).

  113. Was snowing modestly an hour ago in boston now it’s tapering off. This will change to rain at some point I believe.

  114. Funny story…I was checking this blog from my phone and somehow clicked on an older blog that happened to be when a much bigger storm was coming. One of the postings was OS and a map and when I clicked on it, it showed over a foot where I live. I freaked out and went on a rant with the wife…HAHA. Then it hit me based on the date/time stamp that it wasn’t today. HA.

  115. I get the feeling all the heavier precip to the south and southwest are kind of taking away from what is falling in our neck of the woods so far, a positive development.

    1. Here in boston still has not picked back up. I would be so excited if this fizzled. Man the dryers guys .

  121. A little mid level drying is involved but should have a decent slug of moisture in the next few hours. Forecast remains as is for now. Heading to the hill across town in a while. Will update from there if necessary.

      1. Thats a great report John and its what we are seeing here too.

        Not a tremendous amt of snow or rain and hopefully, it wont get too moderate the next 4-6 hours.

        Get through this event and even though it will be below freezing most of next week, maybe on the sunny days, the strong sun can compact or settle this snow cover a little more.

        1. I’m due for an easy one Tom I hope!!!! To many all nighters this week it would be nice to be heading home early. It sounds so good but somthing tells me that won’t happen.

          1. At 33F, a 3-5 inch snow accumulation in Boston probably has gone by the boards.

            Precip may intensify a bit to more moderate snow or mix the next handful of hrs. The pavement’s been cold, so, slippery spots probably still likely.

            I think tomorrow night, when some puddles or a bit of snowmelt refreezes may need some treatment here and there.

        2. Would be same here. and TK I actually picture you sitting on a granite bench on top of this hill you keep mentioning Looking out over the city and watching the weather

          1. I’ve done something like that on a nearby hill. There is a hill next to Zion (where my friend lives) called Horn Pond Mountain. There are no houses up there but there is a bench that has been put there in memory of my sister-in-law’s nephew who was killed during a vacation in Mexico a few years ago. That bench faces Boston and provides a beautiful view. I have sat on that bench.

            There’s also a bench in memory of my oldest brother in the same area, but down by the shore of the pond.

    1. Tom I would say that’s exactly what we had in this part of the city and also conditions the same. We shall see. Watch next run will be in a white out.

  123. Unless this picks up in the next few hrs boston won’t even see an inch out of this. I’m outside now and it’s defently more rain mixed in. Just an opinion from the field plenty of time for it to change.

  124. I will be glad when this event is over ….

    Its been one I just want to see the south shore get through.

    Low-mid 30s with wet snow or snow absorbing rain (not snow melting rain) has been on my mind many days since TK and others correctly saw that this was not going to be a 50F rain storm.

    I just hope the next 6 hrs bring less than .50 melted precip and maybe, just maybe the next few weeks can find a way to see a majority of this snow slowly melt under a drier than normal pattern.

      1. Well, the sun will make some progress on clear days.

        On the other hand, tonight’s wet snow and rain will further add to the density of the snow cover, so there wont be any “easy” melting or shrinking of the snowpack going forward.

    1. Yes.

      Perhaps another 1, maybe 2F degrees to go. Its 34 – 35F down by the Cape Cod and Block Island, so, there isnt a big surge of warmth coming tonight.

      Winds now down in NYC area going calm and in about 4-6 hrs, you’ll probably see the south winds at 10-15 mph go calm. That will also help to end Boston’s climb much above 35F or 36F. Then, with maybe some sun midday tomorrow before the arctic air arrives, it might get to 38F or 40F briefly.

  129. Just measured 2.5″ here. Steady light snow continues. I’ll say this….feels like I could wear shorts and a t-shirt out there compared to the storms so far this year.

  130. Just drove from Haverhill to North Reading. 30/31 degrees all the way and snow so light you can hardly see it. Maybe 2 inches here since it started, but that might be a stretch. Looks like we might finally have a system that underperforms. Hooray.

    1. About same here. But I went to sleep on Jan and feb 2013 storms thinking they might underperform so mums the word from this house 🙂

    1. Agree it’s more rain . I did not believe that boston would stay all snow. Looks like Harvey so far was not off.

  132. I was just looking at some projected tempatures and it’s showing boston does not drop below 32 and I believe it had 37 by 7am.

  134. Interesting, but looking at the radar on the Weather Channel, it looks like the precipitation pretty much starts to shut off in Northeastern Mass. at about 2 a.m. So glad this thing has fizzled out. And now that it looks like Wednesday’s storm does not exist, can Spring be far behind?

    1. Amen Mel. People have had enough Mel it’s costing many a lot of money and a lot of problems. It’s way to much snow in a very short time , just way to much.

    1. Just got to the hotel on Baltimore. From Richmond to Baltimore took 4.5 hours, should have taken 1/2 that or less. Heavy rain and 32 the whole way from Richmond. Very icy and scary driving, many cars off the road. There was also several inches of snow in Baltimore before the change over. Glad to be here and safe! 2nd leg home tomorrow morning. We were in the car for 17 hours today!

      1. So glad to hear you are safe but awful trip. So sorry to hear.

        17 is a very long drive especially when the last part is white knuckle driving.

  137. This was not an event conducive to much accumulating snow. I was skeptical about the colder solutions coming out earlier today (NAM, in particular) when the surface temperature rose so dramatically right across Eastern Massachusetts. So not only was the air warmer aloft, the surface temp zipped from below zero to 30 in no time. Thankfully, the snow melt will not be dramatic tonight and tomorrow. But, it will melt. Watch for fog to develop, and with temps near or above 40 tomorrow be careful for falling icicles. Winter is NOT over, by any stretch. But, its grip loosened ever so slightly. I believe we are moving towards a less stormy period with much less snow. This said, snow threats remain.

  138. To clarify, I am not Charlie #2. No disrespect to Charlie (and I understand that his business thrives on an early spring), but I love winter and do not like spring. I have been amazed at our stretch of winter weather. Never in my life have I seen so much snow in such a short period of time. And I’ve certainly never experienced as cold a February. I do see signs, however, of a return to normality. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures in the 40s after next weekend. Our incredible snow-pack at that point will be a fond but shrinking memory.

  140. Not sure about other places but the snow in boston was a compleat fizzle . Some icy conditions out there but other than that this was a minor event for the city. 34 as I type and straight rain.

      1. Please don’t tell me snow cause it ain’t happening tk with no disrespect atleast not in this section of boston.

  141. Be careful about calling this a fizzle too early. There are several hours to go and part of eastern MA is going to see one more slug of precipitation (mainly snow) as colder air comes back in before it all tapers off mid morning. Most of the region will end up in the lower end of the predicted range. The top #’s will not be reached minus a couple isolated locations.

    1. Ok if you say so. But I’ll be surprised. Your the expert not I . But so far it’s a salt storm here.

      1. Would not surprise me if the city picks up 1 or 2 inches between 6AM and 10AM.

        Rain/snow line is heading SE again and a small punch of energy will fill the precipitation void during the next several hours.

          1. They’ll have to turn it around. May happen, but surface temperature is not the only player. Boston has dropped from 34 to 32 in the last couple hours.

  142. Let’s learn a little lesson here. A predicted snow range does not mean that you will reach the top #, nor does it mean that many inches are going to be on paved surfaces. This is a “mild” storm compared to many, and even where it has stayed all snow (here in Woburn for example), our main roads have only been treated, not plowed, and are wet to at times slightly slushy. However, we have received 2.5 inches of snow so far (1/2 inch from the lower # in the predicted range for this area). The forecast is for the total snow that is expected to fall, not the amount of snow that is going to accumulate on roadways.

    There are 2 things that are not going exactly as forecast…
    1) Low level warming was a little stronger than expected with a slightly underforecast gradient wind.
    2) Drier air intrusion at mid levels limiting the extent of the precipitation through many of the first several hours of the event.

    Despite those, most of the region ends up near or just over the bottom # of the ranges. I’d get rid of the 6 top end for most of the region and leave it at 4 or 5, though only isolated locations would reach that.

    1. Always does.

      Regardless of what the final #’s are, I don’t think too many people will be upset if this thing comes in low. 🙂

  144. I agree. I just think in some areas it will be real low including the city. It is not doing anything at all now , actually it’s very peacefull outside. It’s not freezing , no wind it’s just kind of still if you will. It’s slippery though and anything that has not been treated and kept up with in certain areas well you will know it.

  145. 35.4 degrees light rain, all roads r clear and wet, we had gotten 1.6 inches but compacted to 1 inch. We didn’t get nearly what I was seeing on accumulation maps of 2-4, or 3-6. And yes I do see a lot of melting coming to our future. And with that comes a lot of work. We start every year at roughly the same time every March yet people on the blog get worked up. Lol it’ll be ok, we will start calling everybody to let them know we will be out March 9th or beyond. Enjoy your day 🙂

    2. Thank you, Charlie, for a great example of TKs lesson. Charlie, you said you got 1.6. You said you were forecast to get 2-4. 1.6 is four tenths of an inch from your projected forecast. Not sure how much closer it could be.

  146. 31.5 degrees in Brighton. Temp went above freezing (33) for a brief time overnight, but still only heard the pinging sound of sleet/freezing rain.

  147. Man plows are brutal today…you would think we got a blizzard. Maybe 3″ tops but there is a new loud plow here every 15 minute waking everyone up. Street is clear already!

  149. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What teleconnection is described by the unusual warming of the surface waters of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean?
    A. North Atlantic Oscillation
    B. Artic Oscillation
    C. La Nina
    D. El Nino

    Answer later today.

  150. Thanks, TK.

    We got about 2 -1/2 inches snow in Sudbury.

    North, stay safe on the rest of the drive home.

    I have no idea at all what the answer to the quiz could be – just a wild guess –

    A.

  154. It’s still snowing here so I’ll have a final measurement in a while. It looks like just under 3.

    Wouldn’t it be funny in a sick kind of way if Boston’s total snow for this season ended up being 107.5 inches? 😉

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