Quick Update

157 Comments

7:26AM

SUMMARY…
Arctic high pressure today. Low pressure offshore passes close enough for some snow tonight but exits Wednesday. More cold air but dry weather the last few days of February. March begins slightly milder but turns unsettled..

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow of 1-3 inches except 3-5 inches immediate coast and Cape Cod overnight. Lows 10-15. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lingering snow showers Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows around 15. Highs around 30.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain showers. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

157 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  3. If its not snowing, then its been really cold. Relentless.

    It was, however, nice to have the sun slightly peering over the horizon at 6:45am this morning, as I drove to school. Also, have been seeing the sun just over the western horizon as late as 5:15pm.

  6. 13 below at my sister’s house in Bedford! They’re hitting the road this morning, heading down to Naples, FL. Smart! 🙂

    1. BRRR

      Lucked out, made it only to -0.6. Didn’t go below that.
      Without the wind, it didn’t seem bad at all out there this morning.
      Car turned over on a dime and purred like a kitten. 😀

      1. It’s no to bad if you don’t need to be out in it for long. It has been a very cold month for folks like myself who havto work in this. Bring on the heat.

  8. Thank you for the update TK. Always appreciated.

    GEEZ, even TK says 3-5 inches near the coast. THAT is saying something.

    Amazing how some Mets proclaimed this week storm free. Even Donks like us could
    see the “possibility” for late tonight/early tomorrow. Why don’t they at least allow
    for possibilities? NO it has to be an absolute. I despise it when Mets deal in
    absolutes. It’s like a DEITY complex that they are always right and it CANNOT possibly do anything BUT what they say. AND JR was NOT the only one, so this
    is NOT directed at him, but rather as a general RANT.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/God_complex

    1. The highest snow totals will be confined to the cape I believe, Nantucket could do well. So what’s the thinking midnight start for boston done by 6am.

      1. John,

        Waiting on 12Z runs, but based on the mesoscale model runs
        from Earlier, please don’t kid yourself into thinking the snow will be confined to the Cape and islands. Some of the best lift mechanisms to produce the snow look to be right over Boston. Unless the 12z runs change, Your hospital location could easily see another 5 inches of Snow.

        I know you don’t want to hear that as you have been through enough, but I just want you to be ready just in case.

  9. Not going to bite on the GFS’s idea of a rainstorm next week. Not only is it more than a week away, but it’s wavered back and forth of the idea of a coastal low taking over from the weaker primary low and now just stuck with the primary low heading into eastern great lakes. We’ll see what successive runs have to say over the next few days. I haven’t seen the Euro run, is it showing a coastal redevelopment or is the low placement just farther east to begin with?

    2. WoW! All this talk of Thunderous noices. Thankfully, have never experienced that.
      My roof in it’s entirety is now about 90% completely clear of Snow. No leaks.
      We’re good to go.

      Good luck all.

  10. Got to -5 this morning, which is the coldest it has been all season. We live on top of a hill so it rarely gets this cold. Vicki, we too had the thunderous noises from the ice last night. I had no idea what was going on……..

    1. Interesting. At least twice my wife and I were awakened with loud noises that sounded like ice cracking or the house contracting. A couple were really loud and freaked us out. Weird stuff.

        1. Didn’t help when husband and I were dozing back to sleep after initial booms and then saw light outside the window and right after heard footsteps on roof. SIL had not wanted to waken us by saying he was going up to investigate 🙂

      2. I think that was a 30 degree delta between yesterday at this time and today. With the inside of the house warm and the outside cold…the contraction is causing pressure point with the various nails and bolts in the frame of the roof and house. Hence the BOOM as the pressure is released. Any cracks around window frames are sometimes because of this.

    1. I “think” what is happening here is that the NAM now has the system to
      the South becoming more intense and therefore it has weakened
      the inverted trough going back to the clipper to the North.

      OR IF that is not the reason, then alternatively it is due to the Southern
      system taking a more Easterly track, making the distance too great
      and therefore weakening the trough.

      Just trying to get a handle on what’s happening. There has to be some
      reason for the NAM to back off on qpf. 😀

      Thoughts?

  12. Word of caution for those with ice dam leaks.

    We had a small drip in our kitchen ceiling that seemed insignificant. We woke up this morning to a brief waterfall sound and upon inspection an 18″ by 12″piece of sheetrock was found hanging by a thread.

    Took the dog out and when we got back inside 5 minutes later the entire section came crashing down. Big holy mess, but nobody was hurt. Anyway, looking at the second floor rafters now. Time to file a claim.

    3. Sorry to hear that, Capt’n 🙁 Thank goodness no one was hurt!!!
      I Hope everything’s resolved and fix quickly for you!

      1. thanks guys, everyone is healthy, I think we will have a good laugh over this… once spring arrives

        roof people have moved us up to tomorrow, so this should help alleviate any further damage

  13. Vicki, I’m sorry, but did you say that you (daughter) did try the rubbing alcohol/dish soap/water mixture? If so, how did it work?
    My rant 😡 I have an issue with my neighbor’s downspouts – an underground system that empty out at the sidewalk (1′ from my driveway)! I’m not sure if it’s even legal, but no matter, I need to address the problem immediately before someone falls and cracks their head open, or my car ends up sliding into the fence! Help

    1. It does work. But if the ice is thick, it will have to be chopped/broken down. Once we cleared the stoop and poured the mixture on, it stayed clear. Because of the increased melting and roof leaking onto the stoop the other day, daughter did it again. If it is a big area, it might be too much work though. Good luck

  17. Started below zero for the tenth time this month. I hope we set the coldest month ever record here in CT with all this cold we have had. If its going to be this cold we may as well break some records.

  18. -11 at my house in Coventry, CT this AM, tying the coldest night we have had this year (which occurred last week). JJ, I think we may break the record if it doesn’t warm up too much later in the week.

  20. Boy have models backed off on the pattern change in a few weeks. The latest Euro weeklies keep the -EPO ridge in place for at least another 4 weeks. The models have been trying to break it down in the long range for a couple weeks now and it just keeps getting pushed back. Every time it relaxes a bit, it just reloads.

    You can even see right through the end of the 6z GFS run – the western ridge and eastern trough back in place at hr 384. Granted, the cold looks to become less extreme and temps will moderate somewhat as we head into March with the higher sun angle. But we are probably going to keep snow chances alive beyond next week and into Mid March.

  25. 3 storms still on the 12z GFS for next week – Monday, Wednesday, Friday.

    The Monday storm is another overrunning/SW flow event. It keeps us cold with an all snow solution but not a lot of QPF. It looks like a wave of low pressure wants to form off the coast to our south and enhance precip – that needs to be watched.

    The Wednesday system is loaded and would be “alotta rain” as Charlie would say. However yesterday’s 12z run had the track 150 mi south with a colder solution like the Euro. This can and will change but whatever falls, yikes, that’s a lot of QPF.

    Then Friday 3/6 has a noreaster developing in the Gulf and riding up the coast with heavy snow inland and rain/mix on the coast. Havent seen much of that this year.

    March coming in like a lion for sure. Could be a wild week.

    1. A Miller A type storm for late next week which the latest run of 12z GFS has. Those are the ones you really got to watch that pick of the Gulf of Mexico moisture ride up the coast pick up Atlantic moisture then have it track to just the right spot.
      BAM a lot of precipitation.

      2. Miller A can be big daddy’s around here. Imo there will be plenty of cold in place for that one should it occur.

  26. Just landed in Ft. Worth. You’d think I could come down here and get a break….NOPE!

    WSW up for 2-4 inches here tonight. I can’t freaking stand it.

    1. LOL. At least you are projected to hit 47 tomorrow PM so whatever falls will probably be gone by the end of the day!

      1. It ticked down Mel, primarily because it is now depicting the Wed storm next week as snow to rain, as opposed to mostly snow. Even so, Boston probably breaks the snow record by end of next week on the 12z GFS:

        1-2″ tomorrow
        1-2″ Monday
        3-5″ before changeover Wed
        1-2″ next Friday

  29. 12z Euro on the other hand says Boston breaks the snow record by Wed.

    The Monday system is cold and mostly snow, like the GFS. Very similar setup to this past weekend’s storm, as we have been saying. But the Wednesday event is a colder solution than the GFS with what looks like all snow north of the Pike and snow to mix for CT/RI/SE MA

  31. From NWS:

    * ACCUMULATIONS…2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW…HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY
    BETWEEN THE CAPE COD CANAL NORTHWEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

    * TIMING…SNOW COMES ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
    RHODE ISLAND COAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT…THEN OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM THEN EXITS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM.

    * IMPACTS…SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. SNOWFALL
    RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR. BULK OF THE
    SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR…BUT
    UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED.

    * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    1. This appears to be the most bullish forecast out there. Is this for real?

      Eric Fisher is saying LOW impact snow, 1-3 inches with best chance of
      3, the Cape and Islands.

      NWS is saying best chance all the way to the I95 Corridor.

      What’s up.

    1. That’s the HRRR projection. Been good and bad this winter. The run suggests Nantucket will have significant snow-fall. I would not be surprised if the system jogged a little west. Don’t rule out up to 3 inches for Boston.

  33. Media has a new buzz word – frost quakes. They have decided that is what is causing the popping in the houses people are hearing. I am fairly certain frost quakes are shifting of frozen earth or rock and not wood in ones home.

      1. hahahaha

        OS I read your comment about your car starting this am and thought if only mine will do the same. Poor thing isn’t used since Mac cannot drive so I moved it off the driveway before first storm. What I didn’t take into consideration was that it was close enough to the driveway to get snow blown (snowblower) onto it. So it has literally been buried since storm #1.

        I just went out and started it…..and held my breath. It is now purring like a kitten – buried in snow and all 🙂

    2. Vicki, i saw that report on channel 5. What many are hearing INSIDE their homes are definitely not frost quakes, it is the sound of the wood framing contracting from the extreme cold temperatures. Almost as bad as polar vortex, almost.

  34. Whatever you want to call it frost quake earthquake Planfield, CT had one this morning. Thankfully no damage or injuries. This is first one in over a month.

    1. Really – very interesting, JJ. That definitely is not what WCBV is talking about. I remember them from younger days in ski territory but never here.

    2. Plainfield, CT has become the California of the east. Cannot believe the number of quakes that Town has had in the past few months!

    1. Looks like a New Brunswick beating, a Nantucket minor snowstorm, a Charlie winter reminder, and a Boston closing-ground-on-the-record event.

    2. I’ve seen every snowmap for tonight/tomorrow morning and even though the Cape and extreme SE MA amounts have fluctuated with each run, Boston has remained the same for the most part with no more than 2 maybe 3″ at most.

      1. Yes, but what concerns me about this run is that a batch
        of “heavier” (and I use that term lightly he he) Snow is
        “just” barely to our South. Would NOT take much to throw
        the higher total area right to Boston. I wonder
        what the 0Z run will show?

  37. From Upton Sunday night early next week
    NEXT SYS STILL ON
    TRACK FOR SUN NGT INTO MON…BUT THE TREND IS FASTER WITH THE NRN
    STREAM AND AS A RESULT COLDER ACROSS THE CWA. WENT WITH A WINTRY
    MIX…BUT IF THE TREND HOLDS IT COULD BE ALL SNOW…PARTICULARLY
    INTERIOR. FURTHERMORE…IF THE NRN STREAM SYS SPEEDS UP
    SIGNIFICANTLY MORE…IT COULD SHUNT THE SRN STREAM MOISTURE
    OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN A DRY OR MAINLY DRY FCST. EITHER WAY…BY
    LATE MON AND MON NGT A BRIEF SHOT OF HI PRES…THEN THE NEXT SYS
    BRINGS MORE ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

  38. Despite the NAM loading up on us, the HRRR continues to shunt this thing more
    to the East. Barely an inch for Boston. Hmmm

  39. Euro ensembles keep it cold and wintry thru mid March at least. Growing evidence that a pattern change is on hold for awhile longer.

    This may actually be decent news down the road in that it could result in a slower, more gradual meltdown, assuming we can avert a major rainstorm.

  41. No biggie tonight. An inch or two tops. Even the NWS has downgraded from 3-5 this a.m. to 2-4 as of their latest write up. Next week contains a few possibilities with disturbances throwing the kitchen sink at us. None of them appear to be big snow producers at this time.

  42. Close-in: I kinda like the short range guidance idea of shunting this thing a bit east. I will adjust on an update this evening, albeit a slight adjustment to the #’s posted this morning.

    Far-out: I was browsing NOAA’s seasonal outlook maps that now extend through meteorological Spring of 2016. One trend I have noticed is less and less “above normal” for their temperature outlook. Since the 1990s these maps have been dominated by above normal temperature forecast areas and very few below normal areas. This is no loner the case. However, they are forecasting a hot Summer for the East Coast. But all the above normal vanishes by late Fall 2015 and Winter 2015-2016.

      1. I’m just referring to the Lower 48. There have been variations globally including some extreme cold in southeastern Europe recently, but ironically this Winter we’re one of the only places that has seen extreme cold. The pattern was rather relaxed elsewhere.

        1. Thank you Mr TK!! IIRC the same went for last winter. We were cold yet globally it was hottest year on record.

  43. Well, I bit the bullet and re-subscribed to eurowx.com for a month. As crappy as this model has been, it’s worth the $8.99 in entertainment value to look at all the over-amplified fantasy storms, pretty colors, and epic snow accumulation maps for the last month of the winter season 🙂

    Here is the 12z Euro snowmap for tomorrow’s system. About 1-2″ for Boston.
    http://i.imgur.com/bPM2J5z.jpg

    Monday’s storm is all snow for pretty much all of SNE with a general 3-5″. Snowmap:
    http://i.imgur.com/AVesHWk.jpg

    And the snowmap for the Wednesday 2/25 storm:
    http://i.imgur.com/riv4LZm.jpg

    Thru the end of the period, it dumps 12″+ on most of SNE. And, like the GFS, it is gearing up for another storm in the Ohio Valley for late week at the end of its run. Looks like another cold storm as well.

  44. It is a sad state of affairs when Mac takes to looking at our house on google maps because the shot was taken when everything was green

  45. The upside of the house booming is son in law was nervous enough to get up on roof and clear some more without being asked. There is always an upside of a downside 🙂

  47. Harvey was saying Boston could get a dusting on one look maybe a couple inches on another look saying could go either way. Felt confident on higher totals of 2-4 confined to the cape. Also watching another what he called minor event for Sunday but I believe he said temps would be marginal.

  48. Boston probably does not see a snowflake tonight, based on what I’m seeing on the short range guidance.

    Still no doubt in my mind that the record falls though. It’s a less snowy pattern that we’ve entered, but not a snow-less one.

    1. Well I’m not sure on that one. Hope your right as it would be an easy storm cause I’m reporting for snow duty at 3am.

      1. I think you’ll be plowing asphalt, lol 🙂

        I haven’t looked everything over, I haven’t been paying this event too much attention. But both the RAP and HRRR, which are my go-to tools inside 18 hours, keep all the snow confined to far southeast Mass and the Cape, where 1-3″ are likely.

        1. Leaning this way myself. Getting ready to chop the #’s drastically and possibly wipe it out all together northwest of Plymouth County.

          1. So for once, the HRRR trend reflects reality?

            I could readily see that East trend on the HRRR, but at the same initialization times NAM and GFS had 3 inches up to Boston and 4-6 South. I don’t quite get that.

            I was going to ask something about a possible gravity wave, but that seems to be out of the question. 😀

              1. Yet, one can readily see a thrust of clouds moving North to South up towards us on the last few frames of the loop.

                I then ask myself are we being LULLED by the HRRR or is the HRRR for real. OH I wish we could blindly trust it.

                What does the RPM show? Same thing?

  50. SNOWING somewhere in Connecticut.

    Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons 10m10 minutes ago
    @snowman333 it’s snowing! Look outside!

  51. It will snow in Boston tonigh its just a matter of how much. Highest totals have always been for the cape on this one so does Boston get just a dusting or 1 to say 1.5. I’ll uptate at 4am lol.

  52. I see what you are seeing but the northern jet clearly is moving west to east which should thrust the main axis out to sea. Basically a non-event. Next!

  55. Raleigh area and other parts of NC and up to SE Virginia are going to get a pretty major snowfall on Thursday.

  56. Don’t be lulled by some short range guidance into thinking it isn’t going to snow in Boston tonight. There is a wall of moderate to heavy snow south of LI on radar that is spreading due northeast…

    Been snowing very lightly here in CT the past few hours as well, though radar isn’t picking it up.

  60. NWS write up about Radar returns

    THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY ARE THE RADAR RETURNS BLOSSOMING SOUTH OF LONG
    ISLAND. THE HRRR/RAP HAVE VERY LITTLE SNOW MAKING IT NORTHWEST OF
    EVEN THE CAPE COD CANAL. THIS CERTAINLY IS CONCERNING…BUT WE ARE
    NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BITE ON THOSE SOLUTIONS BASED ON BLOSSOMING
    RADAR. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF
    QPF ALONG THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN A
    PERIOD OF GOOD LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION RESULTING IN DECENT
    RATIOS…COULD EASILY TRANSLATE TO 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
    HOWEVER…IF THINGS END UP SHIFTING EAST BY 20 OR SO MILES AT THE
    LAST SECOND MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA WOULD BE LOOKING AT JUST A
    COATING TO 1 INCH.

    ALL IN ALL…BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z NAM NOT
    PLANNING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IF WE START TO
    SEE THE RADAR RETURNS TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY AND THE OTHER
    00Z GUIDANCE BACK OFF AS WELL…WILL HAVE TO LOWER SNOW ACCUMS.
    HOWEVER…JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MAKE CHANGES AT THIS TIME
    ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE IMPRESSIVE RETURNS LIGHTING UP SOUTH OF LONG
    ISLAND.

  62. Me thinks the HRRR was full o Shit!!
    And for now on, that model is officially on my shit list!!!

    That radar is extremely impressive!!!!!

    It’s gonna SNOW HARD here very soon.

    1. 0Z NAM and 0Z Gfs still have 2-3 inches for Boston,
      I don’t know what the HRRR was smoking, but clearly it was OUT TO LUNCH!

  64. IS it possible that this set up pops a gravity wave.
    I remember a set up something like this in the late 90s or early 2000s
    where there was nothing at 2AM and at 8 AM there was 6 inches on the ground.

    ???????

    I don’t like the looks of this.

  65. Sorry OS & all. Had some stuff to deal with tonight. Had to slap the hospital in the wrist for lack of communication. Hopefully all straightened out now. 😛

    No, there is a reason I hesitated on dropping the #’s, and you can see it on radar now. It will be a burst, won’t last long, but should get the region into the predicted totals. Will refine that in a bit and trying to update before I go to sleep later…

        1. Thanks. Snowing moderately here…have to say it’s depressing. Finally got visual confirmation that my roof and walkway exist…and now let’s cover it up again.

          1. Nothing depressing about it to me. Just me coexisting with Nature. I just have to decide whether to do a scrape of the driveway before I go to sleep or opt to get up a little early instead. 🙂 Won’t be all that much to move either way and it’s outta here early.

    1. Some gets up here but it’s peeling off to the E at the same time, so should be a touch less than what goes on just to the south and southeast of here.

  67. That northern edge of the snow is having trouble getting established right here in the NW suburbs. I can still see the sign for the Burlington Marriott. That is 3 1/2 miles to my west and it indicates very light snow.

  70. Well Boston should be at 101+” when they get a final measurement.

    Also I think we have a record in Boston for the most days ever under 32 degrees in the month of February.

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