Weekend Update


High pressure overhead with clear sky, calm wind, and deep snowcover tonight – perfect radiational cooling. There will be some low temperatures well below zero, but most areas will be above, just very cold. This low launching pad for Sunday means it struggles back to the 20s as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system, which will occur Sunday night in the form of snow for all areas except for the possibility of some mixed precipitation over the outer part of Cape Cod and over the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. It looks like this system will drop a general 3 to 6 inches of snow across most areas, but there may be a little less than 3 inches in portions of north central MA and southern NH due to less overall precipitation, and less than 3 inches in areas where mixing occurs. There may also be a few areas that receive over 6 inches not far inland from the South Coast in south central RI and southeastern MA. Once this system exits early Monday, that day will turn out breezy, chilly, and drier with sun returning. Another cold night Monday night as high pressure moves overhead, but not as cold as tonight. Tuesday, sun will be followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches, but this one is destined to take a track northwest of New England, putting this region on the “mild” side. Remember that a deep snowcover in place will make it difficult for many areas to warm up, so freezing rain will be a possibility for some areas, along with rain where it warms sufficiently, after all areas start as snow. It is entirely possible that Boston breaks its all-time seasonal snowfall record of 107.6 inches set in 1995-1996 after the next 2 storms. After the midweek storm the confidence is a little lower late in the week as there will be some lingering moisture to the southeast and a few more disturbances in the northern jet stream, so timing and possible interaction are difficult to determine this far in advance. Will make an attempt to do this with a little more confidence on the next update.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from -15 interior valleys to +10 Cape Cod. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow. See above for accumulations. Temperatures steady in the 20s but may rise to 30-35 Outer Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH shifting to N then NE overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Snow to mix at night. Lows 15-20. Highs 30-35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with rain but possible ice inland. Mostly cloudy afternoon with rain showers. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40 late day inland, 40s coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or mix Cape Cod. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 30-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-25. Highs 35-40.

202 replies on “Weekend Update”

  1. Hey weatherwiz, I posted this on the other blog, but in case you don’t see it: I like weatherwizkids.com actually (seems appropriate, under the circumstances); the woman who manages it is a meteorologist. I don’t know what she has specifically on hail. I also like treehouse weather (http://urbanext.illinois.edu/treehouse/index.cfm) They actually do have a section on rain, hail, etc. I’m a special ed teacher at the elementary school level but I sometimes do a science club; these are the sites that I’ve used.

  2. TK, Thanks for your forecast. I believe there’s one last Arctic front to pull through these parts and it will likely happen at the end of next weekend. Am I correct in saying that? It looks like the cold fronts that sweep through this week won’t have the bite that previous ones have had. Also, looks like significant melting from Wednesday through Saturday, with the exception of Thursday and Friday nights. Thankfully not a dramatic melt-off.

    1. Not sure where the melting is going to happen on Thursday through Saturday next week. Channel 4 has high temps for those three days at 26, 28 and 33.

      1. As long as it is sunny it will still melt this time of the year…obviously not like it would in the 40’s.

          1. Don’t you have anything positive tonight? Haha. Well you did call for a miserable few weeks…get me to April.

  3. Thank you TK.

    Most guidance points to the heaviest with this event pretty far to the South Of Boston.
    I remain unimpressed. Perhaps something will change on that, but so far looks
    like WIMPORAMA. Most especially compared to the 4 big storms we have had this season.

    Looking around, the SREF is the only one that brings more Snow this far North.


    Then I found this from the NWS

    WS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3h3 hours ago
    Some data is indicating the potential for a period of 1 inch per hour snowfall rates Sunday night.


    Of course they don’t say what model that is????

  4. Great evening out tonight, not that cold out, went to the uml hockey game with my friend and now going to be going skiing tomorrow hopefully

    1. Ok Another Facuckta NWS oddity.

      A range of 4-8 inches in the watch area. 4 inches does NOT NOT NOT
      justify Winter Storm Watch. I just don’t get these guys at all.

      If the range is truly 4-8 it is an advisory event, not Winter Storm.

      IF they want to stick to Winter Storm watch, then the range should have
      a 6 in the lower range and NOTHING less.

      Again what do I know. Just my thoughts.

      1. If the highest # on the range is within the criteria for a watch/warning, then they must issue one.

    2. More from NWS


      If it’s a high advisory event and I agree with that, then why oh why
      the Winter Storm Watch????????????????

  5. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?

    A. Parsley and onions
    B. Peas and Beans
    C. Tomatoes and Peppers
    D. Cucumbers and Corn

    Answer later today.

    1. I can’t start any because I’d kill them before I could get them outside

      But I will guess C

  6. Happy March 1st!
    An English proverb describes typical March weather: (A Common Pennsylvania Saying) March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.
    In Wales this proverb is applied to the month of April more often than March, especially in the borders.
    In the 19th century it was used as a prediction contingent on a year’s early March weather: If March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb.
    But, it was recognized to not work well. The reverse is true as well. If the weather is nice early, it comes in like a lamb and will go out like a lion.

  7. Happy Meteorological Spring everyone.
    Snow comes in later this afternoon should be done around daybreak. Boston will be very close to the record when this one is over.

  8. I noticed channel 7 lowered amounts at least where I am in Woburn…went from 4-6″ to. 2-4″… Seem accurate based on recent runs?

  9. Thanks, TK.

    And Happy Meteorological Spring – Happy March! Does anyone have any estimate on when the below freezing temps. will start to moderate finally and not come back until nxt. Dec. or so?

    And my answer is C.

  10. Looks like the melting will begin in earnest next Saturday, as we will have high temps above freezing for 3 straight days.. Can’t wait.

  11. Before wishing everyone a happy meteorological spring, I want to reiterate that the month we just closed the books on will likely never happen again in our lifetime. It was something special. Moreover, the 5-week period we just experienced will likely not repeat itself again in our lifetime. We may get another season of over 100 inches of snow, but not all in a short 5-week span. It’s been historic, and I hate to use that overused word. I think the temperatures in February are even more impressive than the snow. I believe Boston had two days which went above freezing: Two! That’s hard enough in January, but next to impossible in February. We’ll be talking about the past 4-5 week period for generations to come.

    Looks like the `95-96 record may not be broken this week – though we’ll get awfully close. If we’re within an inch or so we’ll definitely break it with a couple of March snow squalls. But, if it’s 2 inches or more it may be hard to break. While it can and does snow in March, the chances diminish as we approach the latter part of the month. The pattern is definitely shifting into more normal mode. Not spring mode, Charlie, no, a more normal March pattern which I can’t call spring. For spring, go to England or Holland, not New England.

    1. Well I remember last year everyone said it was a winter that happens every 100 years…and then this winter comes along and kills it. I hope I never see anything like it again but I don’t trust statistics anymore ha.

    2. I still think we have a shot at breaking the record between tonight
      and Tuesday. Agree it will be close. I thought it was a lock until the main
      thump of tonight’s snow SHIFTED South. Some scenarios:

      Amount needed: 5.6 inches

      Tonight Tuesday Total Record
      5 1 6 Broken
      4 1 5 Not broken
      3 1 4 Not Broken
      2 1 3 Not Broken
      5 2 7 Broken
      4 2 6 Broken
      3 2 5 Not Broken

      Most likely amounts Low End High End

      Tonight 4 2.5 6
      Tuesday 1.5 Coating 3
      total 5.5 2.5 9

      See how close this becomes.

  12. Instant weather maps has old runs. No new ones. HRRR is stuck at 02Z run last
    night. Just when you need them, they are unavailable!!!!!!!

    1. But shows Virtually NOTHING for Tuesday, seriously jeopardizing
      the Snow Record.

      We needed tonight’s to stay North and for insurance get the
      1-3, 2-4 inch front end thump Tuesday. Does NOT appear to be
      in the cards.

      Record may not fall this week, after thinking it was a certainty.

      We’ll keep watching.

      1. 1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

  13. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
    I don’t think we’ll reach the seasonal record tonight in Boston. Heavier snow should be south of the city. Maybe Tuesday night.

  14. Current Boston Nexrad Composite Radar display


    Most of this is in the clouds and NOT reaching the ground, but it does show
    that the column is beginning to get moistened and SNOW will commence sooner
    rather than later.

    1. NWS says 2-4 PM start for Eastern Sections:


        1. Yes. NWS says accumulating snow ends by 1AM.
          Here is the wording.


  15. The pattern I believe slows down after the midweek system. The deeper we get into march the snow chances dwindle, yes it can snow till April but need a very good set up. Just my opinion but folks looking to have that record broken should hope we can get as much snow tonight as possible because what ever falls tonight in my thinking will be way more than the next system. Wednesday looks to me in the mid 40s day time tempature.

  16. A couple stations now reporting 46 for Wednesdays tempature. Could some places hit 50? Whatever comes in Tuesday if you are looking for snow you would want that system to come as early as possible Wednesday wee hrs with no delay.

  17. NCEP straight up blows. The data files for model products- which have been coming in rather slow for months now, hence occasional delays in model data- are now coming in so slow that many runs are taking hours longer than usual to plot or are not plotting at all. Per our friend Ryan Maue on Twitter, right now files are coming in about 99.5% slower than they were two months ago (usually they take just seconds). Embarrassing.

    Never mind the fact that the NCEP models still can’t hold a candle to most European and Canadian products. Now they can’t even get the damn data out. Apparently there are no immediate plans for a fix either; it’s a well known problem, but one that is not expected to be straightened out fully for at least another month or two. Hopefully they can at least get it back to the buggy but usable state it’s been in for the past couple months, because right now it’s practically useless. Rant over πŸ™‚

    Still looks like a general 3-6″ event on this system, lowest north, highest south. Record falls Tuesday/Wednesday.

  18. What are we looking at for QPF for Wednesday’s event and what percentage as rain? Trying to figure out if I should shovel some snow away from the foundation. Anything more than 1″ of rain

      1. I’m glad you saw that as well OS.

        I thought I was dreaming when I saw that.

        My opinion is, that could be true in Concord, NH or interior Maine, but I cant remember the last time an inside runner in early March, with not the coldest airmass over New England, ever producing that much snow, in southern parts of New England, in this type of setup.

        1. Shotime post this above and it is right from the NWS
          website. It is NOT made up

          1015 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

          I would presume Boston falls within that virtually everywhere!!! No?

  19. Been snowing here lightly for just over an hour. Roads starting to coat up a little bit.
    February 2015 Coldest month ever here in CT!

  20. Light snow has begun in Coventry, CT as well. This was much earlier than I had anticipated. System is well ahead of schedule.

    1. Daughter said earlier when we were trying to figure timeframe for son driving to southern RI that most systems have seemed to come in early.

  21. If the record at Logan doesnt get broken by mid week, I’d submit that we wont know if it stands or falls until April 15th. Why the record has to be broken by the mid week storm is beyond me. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ …….. Is spring arriving and never leaving starting on Thursday, March 5th ? I doubt it, but that would be fine by me.

    It is my opinion that the snowfall seasonal record is not a big deal, one way or the other. Either way, it will not define the impact of the last 5 weeks. It will especially not define the incredible, sustained cold of the last 5 weeks.

    1. It’s a psychological thing. It simply NEEDS to be broken. You are free
      to disagree, but for most people, it is icing on the cake and it needs to happen.

      1. I can understand that.

        Its just that to me, its like comparing apples and oranges.

        I’ve had 2+ feet of snow cover on the ground for nearly 5 straight weeks ….. in Marshfield. During the last 2 weeks of those 5 weeks, its probably closer to 3ft.

        Not even winter 95-96 had that in Lowell. We had 2 different periods of deep snow cover of shorter duration, because of a 2-3 day thaw in btwn that wiped out the first deep snowpack.

        Thats my reasoning for not worrying too much about the final total.

        Its been its own, unique experience. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

        1. I agree it has been what you describe, that is why I said
          the record is like icing on the cake. It just completes the experience. I would feel a tremendous void if the record
          is not broken.

            1. Not sure what this reference is, however,
              let me assume you mean an 18-1 baseball game. IF that final run was a RECORD
              home run by a player, say big Papi, then
              YES. Perfect analogy. πŸ˜€

                1. Well that makes sense. Never went there. I guess baseball always remains #1 with me. πŸ˜€

        2. I’m in the Tom camp. If we break it great. If not, we have set so many records this month that It seems to be just one more number and also it is just that….a number….that in the end cannot possibly capture the history we have seen. In some way IMHO it almost diminishes it

  22. Radar returns north of NYC and extending on a line back to the west look unimpressive to me, light and broken, no inch per hour rates in there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the heavier snows end up even further south than modeled.

  23. I think how Boston does tonight will be determined by the area of precip over northernmost Indiana or just east southeast of Chicago.

  24. Yes it. All of CT under winter weather advisroy for 3-6 inches of snow.
    Saw a tweet from Gil Simmons light snow then 5pm – 2AM when it will be the heaviest. Will see. It came in earlier than expected.

  25. Don’t forget, most of the snow from this upcoming event is not coming from precipitation already seen on radar (such as that heavier stuff to the south moving east) but precipitation that has not yet formed. It will be forming over southern New England as it falls. It’s being generated right overhead in many of these systems.

    1. Thanks for pointing that out.

      But given that, most models still keep heavier snow to the South.

  26. It’s snowing here in CT indeed but very light.

    As far as the radar returns, keep in mind it’s only 11:30 and the bulk of the storm doesn’t occur until after dark. Back edge of the precip is still way back in Illinois. And there is going to be some enhancement of the precip over SNE later on as a wave of low pressure forms to the south of us. So don’t get too wrapped up in what the radar look like at this moment.

    I am still liking my chances for 5 or 6″ of snow here but would expect Boston to come in closer to 3 or 4″.

  27. Still firmly in the camp that the record falls in Boston this week. Not buying the up front thump of 4-6″ of snow the NWS is talking about for Tuesday night but I could see 2 or 3″ easy.

  28. Got to watch that interior for icing Tuesday night into Wed before a change to rain happens.

  29. 95-96 winter vs 2014-2015, Dec – Feb (Meteorological winter portion)

    95 – 96 Dec : 24.1 inches, -3.0F temp departure
    14 – 15 Dec : 0.3 inches, +3.5F temp departure

    95 – 96 Jan : 39.8 inches, +1.1F
    14-15 Jan : 34.3 inches, -2.9F

    95-96 Feb : 15.5 inches, -0.8F.
    14-15 Feb : 64.8 inches, -12.7F

    Data courtesy Taunton NWS.

    1. Nice Tom , the girls with her as well. I booked Florida last night. I hope you get tomorrow in pal as I believe we now have been extended to 6/28.

  30. For me personally it does not matter one bit what the total numbers come in at when this winter is over record or not does not matter . This has been a historic 6 weeks of winter one that I’ve never seen and hope not to see again for some time. This 6 weeks has caused all sorts of problems for a lot of folks out there . Even for the snow removal personal and contractors who have worked hard and have deserved every dollar they may have made enough is enough .

    1. But stats are stats and it will be noted. Those who note them are not unaware of the difficulty of recent weeks.

      1. Oh I know that. But if you put a poll out there I think it would be a landslide for record vs nobody cares enough is enough I think the second enough is enough would win huge.

  31. OS… I agree the heaviest precip will probably be to the south.

    I think Boston gets 4 inches tonight and 2 inches Tuesday night. Record gone.

      1. After 5 for steady. May flake a bit before. That’s up a little from what I thought yesterday, but not by much.

    1. Thanks TK.

      Once the record goes, I’m ready for Spring, not that’ we’ll get it. πŸ˜€

  32. Repost.

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?

    A. Parsley and onions
    B. Peas and Beans
    C. Tomatoes and Peppers
    D. Cucumbers and Corn

    Answer later today.

  33. Some positive news:
    After Wednesday, below normal precipitation into mid month. Still below normal temps, but not as big a departure. This will allow for a gradual melt at least for the time-being.

    1. Looks like 3 or so for Woburn based on that run. It is 3 more than I need but beats what we have been getting.

  34. Ok
    Snow commenced st 1:52 pm in jp.
    Now in west roxbury. Steady light snow
    With visibilities coming down.

  35. Was spitting snow here starting at 1:00ish. Now I see a big orb behind the clouds. Sun I’d definitely higher in sky

  36. Watching that heavy band of snow lifting through NYC and Long Island Sound heading towards part of southern Fairfield and New Haven Counties in CT. Wondering if that band will make it up to me with same intensity. Now a steady light snow out my window. NWS out of Upton, NY mentioning the possiblity of short fused winter storm warnings.

  37. Anything I thought I might have learned about the weather ….. Out the window the past 3 days.

    First ….. On Feb 27th and 28th, two straight days with 100% sunshine, with light wind to boot on the 2nd day and the temp doesnt hit 32F.

    Then today, back to a South wind and that brings …… snow and it remains quite cold.

    What is going on ? Solar constant fall off πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

      1. Ditto here. You’d think it would get old watching snow. It just doesn’t ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

  38. NWS out of Upton, NY did in fact upgrade central eastern Long Island southern New Haven southern Middlesex and all of New London County to a winter storm warning. There was a discussion about that earlier.

  39. Good observations, Tom. I was surprised the entire month of February. We had some sunny days, but it didn’t really warm up. Refrigeration effect played a part. But, there was something else going on, too, I think.

    If we extrapolate forward to spring and summer … Hypothetical: Suppose the pattern we’re in stayed in place with cold or cool air spilling over the North Pole and taking a more or less direct route to New England could we be looking at highs generally in the 60s in July, with it cooling off to the 40s or even upper 30s at night? Theoretically I guess this could happen. Nunavut’s been about 20-30 degrees colder than Boston this winter. Usually there’s a much more significant difference. In the summer, Nunavut’s generally in the 40s. Hence, 60s/low 70s could be general highs in July in Boston. Not likely, of course. Patterns change. But, an interesting hypothetical.

  40. This system is behaving like the one last Saturday at least where I am. It started with spotty light snow then around 3 a steady light snow is falling and surfaces that did not have snow on them earlier now are coated.

  41. I don’t think your going to see the big totals from this one.
    American models really putting more of the accumulating snow across CT RI and areas in southeastern MA.

  42. Snow is really struggling to reach any kind of meaningful intensity north of a Hartford to Providence to Plymouth line. I don’t see that changing.

  43. Snow is picking up in Plymouth and starting to stick on the roads. At least it is covering up the dirty snow. May as well make lemonade out of this somehow. πŸ™‚

  44. In the winter of 2010- 11 when we were getting snow blitzed here in CT after that last storm in that six week blitz in early February I was getting close to the breaking point for the first time in my life with snow.
    I am not to that point this winter since we have had just over half of what you got this winter. When April 1st hits then I am ready for spring and warm weather.

  45. Barely spitting in the Merrimack Valley. Has been like this off and on for two hours or so.

  46. well yesterday evening was great, to bad my friend nick did not want to go to wawa tonight. Oh well.

  47. Has been a really nice late winter weekend for sure. Watching the wood pile dwindle however, I’m starting to look forward to warmer times ahead.

  48. I had by far the most of any year to start and thought I’d have enough to get into half of next year. Not so!

  49. At my mom’s fortunate to get the amount of wood we did from tree’s that fell with Irene, October Noreaster, and Sandy.
    A lot of that is gone from this winter and last winter.

    1. Same up here. Cutting up fallen trees when we had a micro burst come through the woods near by I think July 3. The one that tour the roof off the auto body shop in Methuen that was on the news.

  50. Beginning to snow pretty good here now. Strong echoes are just about here.
    Looking really Wintry out there for sure.

  51. Midweek systems looking more and more interesting. Nam looks ominous at hour 84 but it’s the Nam at hour 84. GFS beginning to show something along the frontal boundary after the initial low passes to the northwest. Will see what the 0z runs have to say. One thing to note on this current system is the GFS and how it handled this storm. It had showed a more northerly solution and only at the last minute adjustep to a more southerly solution.

  52. Not to Rain on anyone’s parade, BUT it is beginning to look like we’ll have yet another
    over running event AFTER the Tuesday/Wednesday system exits the area. Front hangs up just to Our South with really COLD air draining in and GULF moisture over running.
    We shall see.

        1. Oh, I agree with that statement, However, it reiterates that something is up for later in the week.

          Ryan Maue with his PHD and all should be MORE on the ball than that. πŸ˜€

  53. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 22m22 minutes ago
    never seen freezing rain on south wind At Atlantic City. Hard enough in dead of winter,yet alone Mar 1. testimony to the extremity of cold

  54. Going to rehab to visit Dad then bring Mom home. Will post new blog shortly after 7PM.

  55. Tim Kelley NECN retweeted
    Kevin Galliford ‏@KallMeKG 4m4 minutes ago
    I-95 & the #Merritt are disasters right now. #Snow #Winterstorm #Gavin

  56. Winter Storm Gavin as its beeing called by our CBS station here in CT as the theme this year is musicians.
    Just saw the view from New Haven and it is coming down hard. Looking like southern CT will get the bigger totals from this one.

      1. 6-8″ of snow in the evening – overnight hours of a Sunday night ending before daybreak monday morning doesnt strike me as warranting a named winter storm. Doesn’t seem to fit the usual criteria suspects

  57. At 6Pm it was like someone threw the switch. Instantly the snow become much
    Heavier. Hard to tell vis from my location. Under a mile for sure. Somewhere
    between 1/2 and 3/4 mile or so.

    Snowing really good now. Bordering on Moderate, if not already so.

  58. AccuWeather.com
    58 mins Β·
    Washington, D.C. has been called “an ice rink” this afternoon and Boston may tip into their record snowiest season tonight. Details in our Live Blog:

  59. AceMaster WFSB our CBS station has been naming winter storms since the early 70s. The criteria for WFSB to name a storm is 6 inches or more of snow over a large part of CT or 1/4 inch of ice or greater over a large portion of CT. There is a theme to the names. This year people of facebook voted and wanted musicians for the names. Last year it was towns in CT.

  60. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What type of seeds can you start inside now for planting outside this spring?

    A. Parsley and onions
    B. Peas and Beans
    C. Tomatoes and Peppers
    D. Cucumbers and Corn

    The answer is A.

    1. Thank you Longshot. I have tried so often to start seeds with no luck. I did not inherit my moms green thumb. But my girls did!!

  61. Well, in the last hour, we have gotten 1″, maybe 1.25 inches of snow. Streets are completely snow covered.

    Moderate, borderline heavy. Very thick, misty like snow.

    If this keeps up for 3-5 more hrs …….

  62. Accumulations building to our South.

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 18s19 seconds ago
    Thanks Steve! MT @steveginx: 2.5 New Moosup CT mod to heavy snow

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    Thanks Tony! RT @tony_tpetrarca: 1.5 inches West Warwick RI..6::02pm

  63. US National Weather Service Boston MA added 2 new photos.
    4 mins Β·
    A steady moderate to heavy snow was overspreading CT/RI and South of the MA Pike this evening. Snow intensity lessens between 10 pm and 1 am from west to east, then tapers off to light snow/flurries 1 am to 4 am from Northwest to Southeast.

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