Active Early March

650 Comments

1:06AM

SUMMARY…
More cold, more storminess, but we’re very slowly climbing out of the worst of the deep cave of Winter 2015. But we’ll still be having our moments of storminess including some Winter weather, and 2 are coming up in fairly quick succession. The first will be from low pressure tracking northwest of New England Tuesday night and Wednesday. Its warm front will approach late Tuesday and bring a swath of snow into southern New England, producing up to a few quick inches before warmer air aloft turns the snow to sleet/ice/rain (depending on location) then finally ending as scattered rain showers early Wednesday as milder air makes it to the surface behind the passing warm front. A cold front will quickly follow, but will not have any meaningful precipitation with it. This front will settle just southeast of the region by Wednesday night, and then a wave of low pressure will move northeastward along it, passing southeast of New England Thursday morning and midday, as the colder air comes back into the region. This will produce snow, which may start as rain or a mix, across southeastern New England for the morning and early afternoon of Thursday, with the greatest chance for significant snow accumulation in southeastern MA and RI. After this system departs, look for a dry but cold Friday. A weak low pressure area will cross the Great Lakes and move north of the area later Saturday and early Sunday with a few snow showers possible. This will be followed by a small area of high pressure and dry and chilly weather for later Sunday into Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, becoming SE 5-15 MPH by late day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east early and accumulates 1 to 3 inches during the evening, then changes to sleet and rain from south to north, some freezing rain inland, late evening before tapering off overnight with just a few lingering rain showers except a few icy pockets inland. Temperature rise into the 30s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 35-40 interior valleys, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and snow arriving southwest to northeast, changing to snow. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow, accumulating a coating to a few inches southern NH and northern MA, a few to several inches southern MA and RI, tapering off by late. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

650 thoughts on “Active Early March”

  3. Thank you TK.

    With tonight and Thursday, Boston “should” manage to eclipse the record. We shall
    see.

    For tonight, here are Jr’s totals

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_KjbVXU4AAKQoH.png

    Does NOT make sense to me. The warmth is coming from above and would be
    generally moving in SW to NE and not SE to NW. Whatever total is at 128 should
    be at Boston.

    1. The front moves through our area quicker. It hangs back to the west and gets caught up thus more snow in those areas

  6. I was just looking at the GFS 2M temperatures for 18Z from today through March 18.
    I don’t see one day above 40 until the 18th. Hmmm

  7. I could be wrong but again in my humbled opinion tonight is Boston’s best shot at the record as the next set up is going to favor south shore and the cape for what may be heavy precipitation in the form of snow. I also believe in my opinion after this week chances for snow will dwindle big time. I’ll be glad when all this record talk is done because most people just do not care at all .

    1. Perhaps. At the store the other day while in check out, I over heard some
      later in front of me telling the cashier how much she wanted the record broken.
      Her logic was: “Who wants to be #2”.

      So there ya go. Depends on the individual.

      Btw, after this week, I think we still have a few snow chances as it remains
      cold for about 2 more weeks. 😀

    2. I do agree that Thursday is favoring South of the City for more snow, but unless
      it really wobbles South, Boston should be in on enough to put them over
      the top. We shall see.

      Waiting on 12Z runs. 😀

  12. If your going to get all this snow break the record and be done with it.
    Bad timing here in CT with the snow coming in for the commute then it looks like a solid advisory possible warning level snowfall for Thursday for SNE.

  14. Agreed JJ. It seems to me that the “record” is creating as much tension as the last month. It is so difficult to wrap my head around the fact that it was just one month (give or take a week). The up side of that is nothing is ever wrong with slowing time down as it seems to move faster and faster the older one gets.

    As for no one caring about the record, I think a lot of people care. If I were a betting person, however, I’d say the majority would chose no more snow over breaking a record in a winter that has already broken several already.

    I’m glad to see the Friday huge storm has disappeared…at least so far. And also enjoying looking out at the perfect blue sky this morning.

    1. You would lose on me. I for one disagree. I think many people would like
      to see the record broken. What’s a few more inches at this point.

      But, not matter. Mother Nature doesn’t give a crap. It WILL do what it
      wants to do. Guess what either the record is broken or it isn’t. Not much
      we can do about it.

      IF I were a betting man and I am NOT, I’d wager the house that the
      record gets broken. 😀

      1. OS I think you misunderstood which very likely is because of my wording. I said I believe a lot of people do want the record to be broke. I just think the majority (and that could be by 1%) would just chose no more snow. It is the nature of the beast. I’d also bet that the majority (no matter how slim) of folks do not like snow. I, of course, am not among them.

        I also believe the record gets broken and have not said otherwise anywhere. I simply do not see it as being a big deal and totally appreciate that you and others do.

        You are very right that we are in the hands of mother nature…as always 🙂

    2. Vicki, I think if we need a substantial amount of snow to break the record, then YES most folks would say no more snow and be done with it.
      But, because we are only talking about a few inches, I think (IMHO) that most folks want the Winter of’ 2014/15 to hold the new record.
      Poll, anyone 🙂

      1. Now you are getting at the real human nature part of this.
        I agree 100% with your assessment, but then I am extremely
        biased. 😀

      2. I completely understand what you are saying. However, I do not think many want to take the chance that a few inches could turn into a whole lot more. I also think that even a few more inches has a lot of people groaning. I’m hearing groaning from people I work with in the states north of here, many of whom are skiers.

        A poll here would be skewed. I’d love to have someone take a poll of the general public.

  15. 0Z Euro seems to support the NAM snow totals for Thursday. It’s difficult to see
    snow totals on the Wundermap, but qpf maps appear to be in line.

    Anyone have the Euro snow map for tonight and Thursday.

    Current guess for Boston.

    Tonight – 2 inches
    Thursday – 4 inches

    Total – 6 inches

    Current season snow: 104.1 inches

    This “should” put Boston at or just over 110 inches.
    Phenomenally Impressive for a coastal City at 42.3601° North Latitude.

    Caveat. Very possible the Thursday system takes a wobble to the South preventing
    this from happening. We shall see.

    1. OS…where I am in Woburn (15 miles or so northwest of Boston)…how much rain might we get? I ask because I have an outside grate in my driveway that collects water but it is frozen. Before I spend time tonight trying to break the ice up to clear it I wanted to see what we might get. Thanks.

      1. Going strictly by the NAM, once it changes over, the main
        thrust of the qpf is done, ESPECIALLY MA PIKE NORTH.

        In Wouburn perhaps a couple of tenths.

          1. Keep watching in case the changes. That was
            only one model run. You never know around here.

            2. However, last night Eric echoed the same.
              The bulk of the qpf comes in Snow, then
              lighter once it changes over.

              We shall see.

  17. 12Z NAM initial look is Thursday get suppressed and is a lighter event. Still watching.

  20. Thursday’s event has been precarious all along with the constant threat of it being
    suppressed. We shall see what the other 12Z runs show, but this Nam run
    is probably close to reality. Time will tell. 😀

    Never easy around here.

    WITHOUT Thursday’s snow, there is a distinct possibility Boston does NOT
    break the record. There is still the rest of the month and anything can happen, but…

    1. That’s why the NAM should not be trusted outside 48 hours. I do not like systems with sharp cutoffs and the way things have been going systems have been trending south as we get closer.

    2. OS you know better than to say that! If Boston does not break the record Thursday, it will be short by an inch or less. And then there is the entire month of March into early April to muster another inch. It WILL happen!

      1. I said a distinct possibility it won’t. Then I added there is the entire month of March.

        But that being said, Thursday could very well be the last chance.
        Who knows.

        We’ll know soon enough.

  21. Want to do a poll on here to see who wants to break the record? We could put it on the contest page and just vote yes, no or do not care.

    I also sent an email to Pete. It would be tons of fun to see what the general opinion is.

    And, having just polled my family and a couple of friends, I may be very wrong about the majority of folks.

  22. NAM finally comes back to reality. Always starts out too amped and too far NW in the long range and then corrects itself closer to the event. In fact, it looks even more suppressed now than the GFS and Euro.

    Pretty good model consensus now though with 2-3″ up front tonight and the 3-6″ advisory level snows for Thursday focused across CT/RI/SE MA

      1. I agree JJ – I think advisory level for the whole State with chance for warning level across LI and the southern half of Fairfield/New Haven/Middlesex/New London counties.

        1. Mark this right now looks like the system that we had here on Sunday where the biggest totals were on the
          shoreline. Officially Bridgeport had 5 inches and Bradley had 2.9 inches. Shoreline closing in on 50 inches for
          season and inland closing in on 60 inches. Both above normal.

          1. JJ, it is amazing how BDL is often in a “snow hole” due to its proximity to the CT River Valley. I am up to 78.5″ on the season now in Coventry. I am maybe 25 miles from the airport but have received 20″+ more snow. Big difference between there and the hills of Tolland County, not to mention the further east you are, the more snow you have gotten this year.

            1. When I look at the final totals from when the storms are over its amazing the difference in the amount
              of snow Bradley gets compared to other cities and towns a few miles away.

    1. I put up a comment to reply to on the contest page.

      It will be too difficult to keep track if answers are put in between comments here

      If you already responded, can you also respond on contest page

    1. That is probably close to reality. We shall see. It will also be interesting to
      see how much, if any, it changes with the 12Z run.

  26. NAM is iffy but the Thursday thing has a higher likelihood of being a lighter event the further north you are.

  27. If Boston does not reach the record Thursday they have an outside shot Saturday night depending on how close they are and another shot on March 10 and possibly March 12.

    1. OH OOOOO, This date keeps on betting push back and we are heading into the middle of March. Can you believe it?

    2. I heard dry all weekend and was so excited with what looks like a snow free weekend after 6 in a row with snow.

  29. Squeezing out an inch here and there. There were hours during which we had up to 3-4 inches an hour during the snow blitz. Now, it’s hard to buy an inch. I say an inch tonight, an inch on Thursday, and then a few snow squalls take us up to 107.3 (was my favorite radio station in the early 80s) for the season.

    1. Probably get that first inch tonight but as far as tomorrow I would not for boston take that bet.

  30. The 12z RGEM has trended south for Thursday as well. Its almost a complete miss from the Pike northward with advisory snows confined to the south coast

    There has been a definite tick southward in the guidance so far today. The northern stream is appearing to be too strong and wants to shunt this thing further south. I have a feeling GFS and Euro are going to start to suppress further at 12z as well.

    1. GOOD!!! I gotta fly out of here Thursday at 7AM!

      That said…with all these light events, that record will be gone. Not even a little worried about that.

      1. I think those light events come down to one light event and that’s tonight. Everything has and will keep trending south for Thursday in my opinion missing boston, what a shame lol.

      1. Oh yeah, it is suppressed as well. Could be another wobble North
        with subsequent runs, but I think we can almost kiss it good-bye.

  32. So it does look like Thursday is minor at best around the Boston area, but one thing to note is the continued cold and snow being pushed to the south. This says to me that we are not out of woods by a long shot for snow this month and maybe even into April. That doesn’t mean we won’t get a brief warm up at some point, but what I think it means is we are still in the running for snow this month as the battlefront between warm and cold shifts further north and puts us more in the cross hairs vs say the mid Atlantic which has been very late to the snow party. Most of our big snows came at a time when the rest of the country was very mild, that’s why a few weeks back I didn’t see any big warm ups until the cold air pushed south and then eventually retreated northward to hibernate until next winter.

  33. P.S. you have to go really far south to find any kind of warmth with this system as in Tennesee, South Carolina, Georgia and even then we are only talking in the low to mid 50s. I think we can sneak in the record tonight potentially in Boston if the cold can hang in long enough. We’ll see

    1. Reaching the record tonight will be tough. 850MB levels warm quite rapidly.
      Surface may not, but at 5,000 feet the warmth comes a roaring in.

  34. Mark Rosenthal ‏@weatherblast 6m6 minutes ago
    Looks like the Thursday storm for Boston may be a dud.
    Heavy snow Cape Cod..Providence to New York and Philly.

  35. That Thursday thing looking like a D.C. to NYC storm with SNE on the northern fringe.
    It will be interesting tonight if interior areas over acheive as sometimes happens with these front end thumps of snow.

  36. We may have to count on tonight’s system for the majority of the snow amounts. Hopefully we are on the “high” end of the 2-4 inch forecasted amounts since the Thursday event looks to go well south.

    The latest CPC has below normal temps but bone dry through mid-month with warmth gradually closing in on SNE from the west. The record at this point will probably stand with at best a tie. I have had a bad feeling since yesterday.

    1. I didn’t have bad feeling until I saw the suppressed system for Thursday.
      I thought it was a lock as did Eric Fisher last night.

          1. Last night Eric called for a few inches North of the Pike and “several” inches South of the Pike, whatever several inches means.

            When I hear those terms, a few inches = 2-3
            Several = 4-6

            1. They all said that. Harvey was the only one that did not mention numbers, which was a wise idea.

  37. I’m afraid this is spot on:

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
    Looks like quick 1-2″ (after 6-7pm in Boston), then sleet, then rain..ends before dawn Wed #wcvb

  39. I hope you guys break it.
    Using a football anology your at the 5 yard line with 4 chances to get it in the endzone. Looks like a few yards will be picked up tonight getting down to the 2 yard line.

  40. I think it’s premature to completely discount Thursday’s system. It’s not going to be a major snow producer in the Boston area, but we may squeeze out a couple of inches of fluffy snow. Tonight I’m doubting we’ll have much at all. Perhaps an inch or so. As OS alluded to the warm air aloft is going to force a changeover above us, even if the surface remains cold. I think the surface warms up over freezing as well by 10pm or so. Tomorrow most of the day we’ll see low to mid 40s for the first time since January 19th. Pretty incredible run.

  42. If we can’t break the record, then at least let the rest of the month be “inactive” and mild (or at least close to average). We don’t need heavy rains and widespread flooding.

  43. A Lexington elementary school was evacuated because of roof concerns. Someone heard a loud noise. Looks to be the same style as a lot of elementary schools in this area.

    1. The record maybe broken this week (doubtful) but certainly won’t be shattered as some thought.

  46. I think some may be surprised with the up front thump of snow tonight. It may only last 3 or 4 hours before the changeover but will come down hard for much of that time with up to 1″/hour rates. The GGEM/RGEM actually have the bulk of the QPF with this storm coming down as snow.

  47. I was just out and about and noticed some small puddles at the edge of the main roads. Some slow melting.

  49. From Terry on BZ…

    “We will make a serious run at the 107.6” record set in 1995-1996 in the next few days. There is about a 1 in 3 chance that we will eclipse that mark by tomorrow. With a little more snow possible on Thursday, I would put chances at 50-50 that we will have a new record by the end of Thursday. While I think most of you would agree that we have had enough snow at this point, my feeling is, we have come this far, what’s a few more inches to say we made history.”

  50. Coastal, in response to your post on the 12z GFS run above, I actually have noticed this model has been trending colder towards mid month vs what we had been seeing a few days ago. Then notice what happens next Friday:
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=237&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_237_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    Juicy Gulf storm to our south and cold high to the north. The storm takes aim at us but on this run the High is too strong and its placement shreds the storm apart and shunts it out to sea. But a different positioning/strength of the high and it gets up here.

    Point being is that there will be enough cold air left around and pieces of energy coming though that there will be a few more snow chances next week and through the end of March. They may not be anything huge, but a few more inches here or there are likely. While I think the Boston record gets broken Thursday (or maybe even tonight), even if I am wrong, it is just delaying the inevitable. We will not suddenly flip to 0″ of snow as of March 5 and get nothing the remaining 26 days of the month into early April. Yes, the pattern will not be as conducive to snow moving forward but it will not be prohibitive either.

    1. Of course it will snow if all the pieces fall into place but its not happening for us anymore. You can see the cold and moisture on the maps but its not in the right location for us. I go back to the comment I made last week. Boston received something like 2.5″ of snow from late December to January 23rd. We were in a incredible snow funk for a long time only to be disrupted by the record breaking snow over several weeks. I just feel we go from snow drought, to snow bomb to snow drought. You have to admit that something has changed. Boston’s last major snowfall 6″ or more was on 2/16. That’s 15 days without a substantial snow event when we were average a one major storm a week. The Thursday systems would miss and then we got clobbered either side of Sunday. Hey, I’m just making an observation. Its weather, anything can and will happen, but I am not seeing the record being crushed. I think our best chance is within the next few days.

      1. I agree we are not in the same pattern and our big storms are likely done, just making the point that it can and will snow a few more times after this week. It could entirely be like the Dec-early Jan pattern where we only get a few more inches the rest of the winter after this week. But winter will not just come to an end after Thursday. We’ll pick up enough to get Boston over the top this month, even if it doesn’t happen this week.

        1. Yes I saw that but it is also GFS at hour 384 we are looking at. Entirely possible we see storms cutting west of us with brief warmups ahead of them, then see cold air returning in their wake and setting up a colder scenario for the next system. That’s fairly typical March weather as we approach the change of seasons. I’m just not seeing a sustained flip to warmth anytime soon.

          1. sustained flip to warmth
            Does not generally happen in March. On rare occasions, but generally March is up and down
            like a yo yo.

      1. Total for both. I couldn’t separate out Thursday since it was broken up between two 24 hour period maps.

  53. If that map is for both, that’s been drastically reduced and according to that Boston won’t make the record, at least this week anyways

  54. The Euro snowmap verbatim would give Boston about 1″ of snow this week. However, it looks too light for tonight’s event but may be close to accurate with what it is showing for Thursday (not much) based on the southerly trends today.

    1. I was over there picking up my son. Although I didn’t have to park anywhere
      but the cell phone lot, I can tell you that the traffic situation at Logan was
      an absolute ZOO!!!

      1. We had a ride into the hospital the other day by a company we use for business purposes. They drive in and out of the airport multiple times every day and said the extra lane still has not been plowed. I just shook my head.

        1. HRRR is showing snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
          Going to be a good thumping before any changeover.

          1. Now where are those going to setup that is the question as your under one of those bands your town
            will get a little more than what is forecasted.

  60. Mac has given up on me. I am asking everyone I see how they feel about the record. The checkout person at Target wants it to be broken. The pharmacist doesn’t care nor does Mac’s PT person who is here now. Both said (and I’m paraphrasing but relatively accurate) that it isn’t the winter that made history; it is the month.

    My oldest who I was absolutely sure would not want any more snow record or not strongly wants the record to be broken. She wants her kids to say in 20 years when it still stands that they were here for that to be set. I think that is flawed as I don’t expect the winter to stand for 20 years but I do expect the month may well stand.

    1. If the record is broken it is likely to stand for way more than 20 years, in my opinion. UNLESS Winters like this become the new norm. 😀

      1. Back to the whole normal vs. average debate we were having earlier in the winter. Was this winter normal???

        1. Me thinks it is achangin’ That’s because I believe that we are facing climate change and will see bigger and snowier winters. It is a guess.

          OS the 20 years was just a number. I do believe that it has more chance of falling than the one month records. Again, just a guess which is what we are all doing.

              1. I just remember discussions about normal in the past and basically if its going toward the average, it is perfectly normal. I would disagree with that reasoning and this winter is proof of that

    2. So true regarding month . So many people have said tough winter . When I hear that it’s for snow and cold. It has not been a tough winter it’s been a tough month , six weeks. December and almost all of January wete a piece of cake.

    1. I meant to comment and of course can focus on only one thing at a time. It is a nice shade of green; very relaxing. Many shades of green are what my mother in law called bilious green.

    1. Late in the day Thursday, Another wave bubbles a bit farther North
      and throws “some” snow up to North of Boston. Not much, but some.

      Gives one pause that Mark may be correct in that something may yet
      become of Thursday.

      1. Any confidence I had yesterday in a decent event for Thursday has been squashed with the southward trends today. I still think we have a shot at advisory level snows in CT and RI but I would be surprised at this point if anyone north of the Pike sees much more than an inch or two, if that.

        1. I hold out some hope for a change. I was studying the upper flow. It would NOT take much at all to throw
          that precip right back up here. That’s how close it is.

  66. I’m actually surprised we haven’t come close to the record seasonal snowfall more often. To take it a step further, I’m surprised the average is what, 43 or 44″, something around there? Boston is in a very vulnerable location for the types of storms we had most of this winter. I understand it’s location often presents challenges on the flip side with p-types, but it just seems its in a prime spot for huge snowstorms.

    1. keep in mind our “averages” are based on a very very very short time period in the grand scheme of things so I don’t know how much relevance there really is to the number at the end of the day. And if we continue to see above average snowfall, eventually that average will increase. Year to year I don’t think the average means all that much. The pattern at that time will dictate where we end up.

    2. I think you hit on the reason why. In most Winters too many storms are
      in the form of Rain OR have a change to rain. Not so this Winter. Therein lie
      the difference, I think anyway. The unusual Cold and pattern didn’t hurt either.

        1. I don’t know if it wasn’t normal or not. Certainly persistent and aligned just right to nail us.

          I’m sure TK can offer a much more professional opinion on that.

    1. “generally” the NWS goes by a 30 year average, so in that sense within the
      past 30 years, we have had two (2) TOP snow years and many more above
      average. I’d say this year boosts it by at least an inch. We shall see.
      Actually we “could” calculate it if one chooses to find and record the numbers.

      I seriously WONDER what the yearly average would be going all the way
      back to the beginning of record keeping? Again we could calculate.

        1. Notice in that loop how a big blob of “mixed” precip
          got obliterated with snow.

          That is a BIG THUMP of SNOW up front with
          this system. I think Mark may be correct in that
          tonight’s SNOW may overachieve.

  69. Imagine if the lakes cutters in early to mid January had been coastal storms. Also, imagine if December had just been a normal winter’s month. We would have shattered the record by now. But, every winter is different. And there are winters within winters, such as this one. The 43 inch average includes winters such as 2011-2012, but many others as well that had well under 20 inches of snow.

    I think Thursday will do the trick. I think there will be snow showers and even periods of snow that produce just between 2 and 3 inches Thursday. If we hit over an inch tonight, we’ll have hit or surpassed the record.

    1. That sure would be record shattering! Our area would look like those
      social media photos with the walls of snow.

          1. Great photos and I did know that. I am fairly certain the snow along the back of our house looks just like that 🙂

  70. Coating of snow right now.
    Winter Storm Watches up for coastal CT tomorrow evening to Thurs evening.
    It would not take much shift north to bring bigger totals further norht.

  71. Solid 1-3 between 8PM and 11PM for MOST areas. Isolated 4 inch amounts possible. It’s going to come in and look serious for a while, and people will think “my goodness we’re in for a surprise aren’t we?” but we are not, and this will perform as expected. By midnight, sleet to rain, then it essentially shuts off. Above freezing for many hours overnight and tomorrow which will allow us to loosen up some ground ice.

    Thursday, somewhere between a coating and 3 inches across southern New England. Models don’t handle the stretch-out situations all that well, so we have to watch for trends and focus on short range guidance getting right in to event time. About a coin flip whether or not Boston reaches the record by the end of Thursday. A lot of that depends on how close they get tonight.

    And don’t fall into the trap that just because the pattern is in the process of relaxing that we suddenly go above normal in temp and lose any shot at additional snow. NOT the case. You’re going to see the snow cover impacting the weather for at least a few more weeks around here. Even when we moderate the temperature will still be showing a negative departure through at least day 15 and probably beyond. In fact there is one model that I think has a better handle on next week than all others that shows minor accumulating snow threats during the middle of next week. And I even see a few hints at a slight “relapse” beyond mid March as things try to readjust further. We’re not going into a warm pattern anytime soon, so keep the coats, gloves and hats handy.

    There is this built in mentality that the game is over if Boston doesn’t get the record this week. Foolish to think it on March 3. Shameful. 😛

    1. Before you ask, it’s the UKMET. It did a very good job heading through the transition periods from the November pattern to the December pattern, the transition into January’s cold/dry, and it did admirable but not spectacular during the barrage of January 24 to recently.

    2. Well said. Exactly what I was trying to say earlier. We’re not going to just flip the switch this year. Long ways to go.

    3. How do you think we do tonight snow wise? Really not look forward to being late for work for the 12th time in the last month.

  74. Snowing lightly in Manchester CT and been doing so for about 45 min. Starting to get a coating on car tops. Getting ready for the big THUMP!

    1. I haven’t been to Manchester in a long time. My brother lives there, off Birch Mt. Road. I love that area.

      1. I recall you saying that awhile ago. I work about a mile away from there. Know the area well. There is some nice hiking and mtn biking trails on Case Mtn right off Birch Mtn Rd. I take my kids there hiking quite a bit!

        1. Long long ago he lived on Glendale (early 1980s). I”m due a visit there. They usually stop by up here when they pick up or drop off their son at school here in Boston.

  75. NWS upped it’s snow totals for the Winter Weather Advisory

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
    WEDNESDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
    COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES.

    * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES…ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

    * TIMING…SNOW THIS EVENING CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
    FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT…THEN CHANGES TO
    RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    1. Boston NEEDS 3.6 inches. Do we make it OR Not?

      Sort of smack in the middle of the range? No?

      1. They’ve a shot tonight. Just enough potential to get there or fall a little short. Will be fun to see what happens…

          1. You are the only guy I know with roof leaks rooting for more snow. Damn OS I will say you are hardcore 🙂

  76. Central Park reporting Heavy Snow, 29, with 1/4 mi visibility

    Scranton, PA has flipped to frz rain.

  77. Snowing moderate outside my window. Just got in traffic moving slow roads all covered with snow. Noticing some heavier bands of snow just west of me over the Hudson River Valley.

  78. It has picked up in intensity here in Manchester as well. Moderate snow, untreated surfaces are covered.

  79. Mark its not the amount of snow but bad timing for the evening commute.
    I think southern CT Thursday morning going to be a tough commute as they look to be the area going to get the most snow. Will see what future model runs show and if anymore shift to the south happens or will there be a slight shift north.

  81. I’m getting concerned with how much precip there is to our west.

    Looks like a large slug of moderate precip.

    What do we think for total melted ? Still seeing some roofs down here with an awful lot of snow on them.

  82. Spring finally grabbed some geographical space in the lower 48 ……..

    81F in Tampa and Jacksonville, FL

    79F in New Orleans

  84. Looks like 3-5 inches of snow tonight with a slower transition over to frozen and then liquid precip than anticipated. Front end precip is quite impressive.

      1. Curious where you got those numbers…seem higher than anywhere else I have seen. Not saying you are wrong.

  85. Pete emailed and said he likes the idea of a survey. He passed it on. Heaven knows why management wouldn’t want it. None of the other stations have come up with it which to me is short sighted.

    He blogged about the record tonight and it doesn’t surprise me that he pretty much says same thing I believe. It is, after all, why I like him. I identify. He also made a comment similar to one you made on FB, TK

  86. Pete…

    “Finally, the end game. Why am I thinking this may be our last chance for snow Thursday? Yep. A pattern change. We’ll see the storms fade after Thursday and there are signs the arctic air will retreat back to the Pole. This is huge for the implications in the Lower 48 with a general warmup and thaw. We’re in on it too as the storms turn warmer and less frequent. “

      1. What does it mean to break a record? Does it justify the winter and the hardship, or is it just another number to fall? Why do we even care? And of course the bigger question: what if we fall short by an inch – or gasp, a half inch – and never unseat the mighty winter of 1995-96?

        To me, records only really matter in big snowstorms and high and low temperatures for the very reason I stated above. If we break the record for snowiest winter in Boston does it mean the winter was long and hard? Brutal and snowy? Not quite. We had a few blockbusters in February to make up for a winter that wasn’t in December and early January. I’ll let the year of 2014-15 stand for itself in second place, it was memorable enough, thank you very much. I’d hazard to guess that in the years after the Olympics, few athletes look back in regret about getting the silver medal – especially if they know they gave their all.

        Can’t say it better

        1. No you can’t that was great. Winter up till the very end of January was a piece of cake. Winter to me was these last six weeks.

        2. I have felt this is how it would be myself…I said after Presidents Day weekend winter would fizzle out and we haven’t had anything substantial – at least where I am – since then. So I am going with my gut, which is telling me winter is about over…and I am hungry. Back shortly!

    2. It will be interesting as to who wins this “March Madness”…Pete vs. TK! 😉

      I might as well put my $$$$ on TK until he changes his thoughts on the rest of March and gives the “all clear” sign for no more snow. He’s been spot on up until now…no need to change horses in midstream (or whatever the saying is). 😀

      1. As a horse person……just kidding.

        I don’t look at it as a contest since there is no right or wrong opinion. But I’m discovering I am wired a bit differently which comes as no surprise to anyone who knows me 🙂

  87. Will see if its the last snow on Thursday. I do think the worst of the cold and snow is behind us. You could still get a sneak snow event in March.

  88. Snowing lightly here. Ground is coated. It better snow hard between now and 9pm. That mix line after struggling earlier has really made a push through all of PA, central NY and all of NJ

  91. Arod Boston is in the 1-3 zone and although you may be correct I doubt very much Boston will see 5 inches tonight and that is the highest amount I have see by anybody. Hope all is well.

  92. SNOW started a few minutes ago here and already the intensity is picking up.
    See reports of SLEET already in portions of Connecticut.

    Just like that everything is coated again.

    WE need to run some errands in a bit. That should be fun.

    1. Thanks for the update. I’ll update later when I’m back in the city when I can.

  94. Few see 3″-5″ tonight. I think 2″ will be the most common number.

    I have 1″ in Manchester, CT so far and the mix line is cruising east. Poughkeepsie, NY and Danbury, CT have flipped to mixed precip and it is now sleeting in NYC as well.

    1. I agree 5 is way to high and I also think 2 will be a common number. Harvey said this will be quick.

  96. Just saw an obs. from near Poughkeepsie. 1.4″ of snow, now it has flipped to sleet. 22F. Its gonna be a quick changeover.

  99. Not everyone sees 5 inches. 3 inches will be the common theme with a few locations receiving up to five inches while a few others receive closer 2 inches. It’s a quick punch of very intense snowfall. However, if you draw a best fit line, 3-4 inches will be the average with some locations measuring higher and others… lower.

    2. Again I respectfully disagree . As JJ said 3.5 hrs and its sleeting there already. By midnight or right around the same will take place here and some locations may even be straight rain. I think 2-3 is what most will be seeing. Just my opinion.

  100. Ansonia and North Haven, CT have now flipped. 1.2″ in North Haven before the changeover. Most places are not even cracking 2″ before the changeover. Arod, you are not going to see many 3″+ totals.

  101. 5″ May be a common number tomorrow the more you go towards the cape I would suspect.

    1. Huh? The Cape sees even less from this event. You must be talking about Thursday, thats when the Cape might see more, but then they have to contend with potential mixing

      1. Yes Thursday but I thought I heard it may come in wee hrs of Thursday am. So yes 5″ was for Thursday’s event not tonight.

      1. I meant Thursday. I don’t know these days anymore and that’s the truth as I sit here waiting for the phone call.

  102. Does sleet get factored into the accumulation measurements? And if not, how do they accurately measure how much snow fell?

    1. The radar doesn’t show that changeover, still shows snow in your area. This tells me the area of snow is much less in coverage

  105. I saw one of the best snow approaches / arrivals I have ever seen, outside of snow squalls.

    A few flakes started here on Woods Hill in Woburn right at 7PM, and then for about 15 minutes a curtain of snow was illuminated by the lights from Woburn High School football stadium and you could see the snow about twice as heavy just 1/4 mile to my west while it was barely flaking here, and then the lighting changed as the area moved to the east and the snow picked up here. The curtain of snow to the west was moving from left to right in a light SSE wind and almost had the appearance of a giant wedge tornado, because of the lighting set-up.

  106. The warm air aloft is moving very rapidly ENE. This is the basis for my 1-3 inch call with isolated 4. Nobody gets 5 inches out of this. It does not snow long enough.

  107. It doesn’t show the changeover your right AceMaster but I could tell you there is sleet here. We did get the burst of snow here.
    This time the 2-4 inch snowfall forecast is going to be closer to the two than the four.

  108. We have switched over to sleet now here at my office in Manchester, CT. Only 1.3″ of snow before the changeover. For reference, I am about 10 miles east of Hartford.

    2″ will be the most snow anyone will see out of this.

      2. Too far behind here, just trying to bite the bullet and catch up. If I wait long enough this will be over!

    1. Wow.

      Dp’s at the surface are still low. Surface is going to take a while to moderate.

      Hope it doesnt go straight to freezing rain, if it warms above too much.

      Looks like moderate to heavy precip in western CT.

  110. I have just been amazed, over the last week, at how slow the surface has been to respond to return flow or, on some days, sunshine.

    The deep snow and the chilled ocean to our south and east have been remarkable at maintaining the cold airmass.

    I would venture to guess in other winters, under this current event, it would be 32F or a little better in places that it are currently in the mid 20s. We’ve had a south wind, it has been light, but a southerly wind still for many hours now.

    It just has been a learning experience for me, with regard to overestimating the warming, given the snowcover and ocean chilling cold.

  112. Holy crap, I just looked out the window and we are back to heavy snow! What is going on!? Perhaps I will stand to be corrected….

  113. Real weird – after switching to 100% sleet it went back to heavy snow for awhile, but now it is about 50% snow and 50% sleet. I just measured 1.5″ but that is now a distorted measurement with the sleet mixing in and weighing down the snow that already fell.

    2. Western sections seem to be changing over faster than eastern sections for obvious reasons. But, relative to each other, western sections may see lower end of the range while the converse could be true in eastern sections as warm air aloft meets more resistance as it heads north east.

    1. Because the snowflakes have been rather small, even during the moderate portion of the snowfall.

  116. Agree with Tom’s observation. In my experience I’ve seen southerly and southeasterly wind push up temperatures very rapidly. December to March, doesn’t matter. The temps soar, often into the 50s (sometimes even into the low 60s), before crashing down as the lows traverse western Quebec and draw in a fresh northwesterly behind them. In the past 10 days we’ve had two lows that have gone the western route and yet temps have not soared. I still think we reach the 40s by tomorrow morning, with some rapid melting. But, TK’s refrigeration effect is definitely playing a role in keeping temperatures at the surface from rising much.

  117. Just came in. About an inch so far. Snowing good. Roads are atrocious. A mess!
    No salters out at all!! Anywhere!! Boston has to be damn close to 105 inches now.

    1. I’m surprised they were not out treating right away knowing this was coming for a while. This was an extremely well-forecast event.

      1. Sanders/salters are out here. Saw one go by when I looked down to the Main Street. Absolutely no cars out in the five minutes I watched.

      2. They’re trying to save money. I think the snow budget is a farce. Why earmark funds for snow removal? Earmark for capital equipment like snow removal vehicles and salt/sand, but the removal itself, no. It’s too variable. One year you’re going to spend little or nothing on snow removal, the next a lot. You spend whatever it takes to make the roads safe and clear, regardless of the so-called snow removal budget. I’d rather not hear mayors and others talk about snow removal budgets as if they’re predictable, variable expenses.

  118. Snowing pretty good here in Hingham. Visibility between a 1/4 and 1/2 mile with maybe 1.5 inches on the ground. Temp 26.

    Sitting here trying to decide if I want to install Windows 10 preview on one my lesser used computers…..maybe.

  119. Off Topic – but very important!!!
    Today, I received a call (voice-mail) on my cell-phone from someone claiming to be from the IRS. They stated it was my final warning and that the IRS was filing a lawsuit against me! Beware of any such call – IT’S A SCAM! The call back number was to a 202 area code.

      1. The calls that I received were from a 415 area code. Last year one of my cousins fell for that scam, unfortunately.

  120. The precip is making an attempt to outrun the changeover line… my goodness. 😛

    3. Where is the low right now, TK? And how much qpf can we expect once the snow stops? It doesn’t appear to be a lot of rain behind the snow, which is probably a good thing in regard to flooding issues.

      1. Does it even change over to rain at this point…every looks to be moving west to east (at least on the Wundermap radar). Doesn’t seem like the rain is moving NE at all.

      2. Very little precipitation after the snow/sleet up this way. Maybe very brief rain some areas to the south.

  121. Approx. what time does Boston change from sleet to rain TK? I hope that any rain will be very minimal.

  122. Well that was an interesting drive home. Fortunately not many people on the road. Still pounding sleet with snowflakes mixed in. Measured just under 3″ of snow/sleet mix on the ground here in Coventry. I was not here to keep up with periodically clearing off the ground to make these measurements so the net total is probably a bit higher.

    I am most surprised with the volume of sleet that has come down. Was expecting a quicker change to freezing rain. We may end up getting through this entirely with frozen precip and no change to liquid by the time the precip ends.

    1. If that happens that will be truly amazing. Tom’s observations above are spot on. It’s remarkable to have a low traverse west of New England and not cause a significant spike in temperature as well as a fairly rapid changeover to rain. Sometimes changeovers are slower when the lows cross Massachusetts, say. But, we’re talking a southerly wind and yet no changeover until quite late this evening, and not in all locales.

  123. Fox25 Futurecast shows the rain never making it to Boston and the precip ending as snow/sleet mix.

  124. Well it did appear yesterday that the speed of this thing meant that any rain would be very limited. That part is working out just fine. 😉

  125. Things happening as I expected. Warm air intrusion meeting resistance. Boston could break record. North Smithfield approaching 5 inches. I still expect 3-4 inches with max 5 inch amounts.

  126. I was about to post all snow here but am hearing ice/sleet occasionally on the AC unit so trying to change

      1. Really interesting. Im in new bedford. All snow and 32 degrees. If it was that warm upstairs it should be doing something else other than snow.

        1. Agreed. This is one of the most interesting scenario’s this winter. It must have to do with what TK referred to as the refrigeration effect. I sincerely think that had there been now snow-cover we’d have gone almost immediately to rain given the low’s track. I guess Boston’s become like Goose Bay, Labrador. Lows track well to its west during the winter, and there isn’t much in terms of changeover. Occasional sleet in early spring, but that’s about it.

          2. Its been crazy.

            Now, next year, I’ll be expecting this on a similar scenario and of course, it will be 39F with light rain. 🙂 🙂

  127. Since 10PM, mainly sleet with some snow mixed in at Woburn. Not sure exactly how much on the ground – going to check in a moment, but it’s no more than 2 inches.

    Everything pretty much right on track.

      2. LOL, thats where I am at !

        6 weeks ago, I’d have looked probably 15 times, tonight …. two times.

      1. The warm air probably came in very unevenly, basically in rolling bubbles. That happens.

      2. South coast and also parts of the Cape. That’s astounding, in my humble opinion. It’s a southerly breeze on the Cape and yet stations are reporting snow. I wonder what the water temperature is? Boston harbor is partly frozen. I’m assuming that some of the shallow bodies of waters surrounding the Cape are partly frozen.

  128. I see a hole just west of here. No more sleet sound. Can’t tell for sure but looks like rain.

  129. The visibility was 1 mile at 9:45PM and by just after 10PM I can see the Burlington Marriott clearly which is 4 miles away.

  130. I spoke too soon and we have flipped to freezing rain here. Temperature has risen from 21 to 26 in the past hour. But the back edge of the precip isn’t far away either.

    1. Nothing really new to add yet. I want to see a few 00z runs but I’m still not sure they will quite know what to do with it.

  132. The next best part is that Buffalo, NY now has a W wind.

    “Cold front” has passed them by.

    Not a sharp, cold airmass immediately behind it, but ……. a boundary that, swinging through here will cut the real mild air off at the pass. (Not that if it had 4 days to do so, the mild air would get in here).

    But now, 45F, especially just north and west of Logan may be a struggle tomorrow. Perhaps 41F, maybe 42F before the cold air returns.

    How much snow will still be on the ground Saturday night when the sun sets close to 7pm ?

    2. There will still be plenty of snow around. Once again, I was wrong to think that we’d shoot above freezing by 10pm and that the melt would start in earnest. There will be melting for sure tomorrow. But, with little sun the melting will not be substantial. With colder air due Thursday and Friday, along with possible snow showers, I’m thinking much of our snow-pack will be around this weekend.

      1. Agreed.

        Watch, we’ll come around to slower moderation and then of course …….. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. My snow-pack isn’t going anywhere. LOL. Snowbanks by the driveway are still in the 5 to 6 ft range. Still a good 30 inches on average around my house.

        Conditions right now are what some people have called snizzle..and the temp is at 27.

      1. Weird scenario. I like your description of warmth coming in bubbles. Once again the south shore and coast appear to be the jackpot in Massachusetts in terms of snow. Had someone said that to me earlier today I would have told them they’re nuts.

  134. Snow reports via NWS all range from 1.0 to 3.0 inches as of 10:26PM.

    There is one report out of RI of 4.5 inches but this is a general public report and quite suspect. I won’t discount it 100% but I have my doubts about its accuracy.

  135. Now sleet/snow mix here in Dorchester and the precip is lightening up considerably. No record for tonight for sure which was a longshot anyway. Can I still assume no additional snow for Thursday as well?

    1. There will be some but probably not much. However there is one piece to the puzzle missing. There may be a little surprise Thursday evening.

  136. Also, the motion of the precip.

    At least at New England’s latitude, the precip came in from west to east. It didnt approach from NYC and lift towards Portland, ME.

    So, I wonder if that shows the mild air’s approach aloft was more from west to east, than south to north ???

    Also, eastern and southeastern Mass are closest to the retreating cold high, so thats why our column may have maintained cold longer than west or even northwest of us ??

    Perhaps thats a few additional reasons for snow in one place vs another.

    I heard a few loud pings off the window just a couple minutes ago.

    In one of my few looks outside about 10-15 minutes ago, I’d say we were close to 2″ of snow.

  137. I find it interesting that most locations reporting straight sleet but radar is still “blue” with very little “pink” showing. Radars off-line??

    1. When the entire strung out possible event for Thursday came about, it switched up the configuration. That system is actually pushed back to around Tuesday. A weather northern stream system will probably come through Saturday night.

  139. 26 degrees and switched over to sleet about 20 minutes here in Westborough. Picked up about 2.3 inches of snow before the changeover.

  141. I was looking to get out of a presentation Monday but oh well…So your thinking just a weak system for Tuesday?

    2. Possibly. That’s not 100% either. There will be a broad trough in place with pieces of energy. Probably cold enough for snow, but have to figure out timing.

  142. You can see evidence of the uneven warm advection just by the cellular nature of the precipitation echoes in the mix zone. Here in Woburn after an hour of sleep we just went to a mix of sleet and big snow flakes.

    2. Is that why the radars were showing “blue” even though mostly sleet was falling? There was very little “pink” color showing up.

      1. Yes. In a variable situation, the radar read on it doesn’t work out so clearly. I’m not sure how the programming handles it, but obviously not that well.

        Also, we’re dealing with warming from 2 directions… West to east aloft, happening very rapidly, and south to north at the surface, happening much more slowly.

        1. Thanks TK. One would think with warming coming in from different directions that rain would easily have taken over. Instead the rain just inching northward never really making much inroads anywhere.

    1. The 0z GGEM and RGEM have ticked back north, as has the UKMET. The Canadian guidance has the 4″ line getting as far north as the Pike while the UKMET gets it as far north as about providence. The American models however are still pretty suppressed.

      As TK was alluding to, it does look like the best chance of accumulating snow may come from a wave that rides up along the stalled front later in the day in thursday.

  144. 3″ of snow and sleet here in Coventry CT followed by a glazing of ice on top. Freezing rain has now come to an end. This should be a pleasure to clear.

    Temperature rise in the past few hours has been impressive. We have gone from 21 to 32 in a little over two hours.

  148. Good morning. I didn’t measure but looks like a total of about 2 inches here.
    Started sleeting around 10:45 PM. It was pouring sleet for awhile, then mixed with
    snow as has been posted above.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 6h6 hours ago
    JUST IN: Logan only reported 1.6″ for this storm. We’re still 1.9″ shy of the all-time record.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_OnbyyUoAAX7sa.png

    1. By the way, never saw heavy snow. Was mostly a real solid light snow,
      3/4 to 1 mile vis. For a brief period we got down to 1/2 mile perhaps less.
      The heaviest snow came just before the sleet.

  152. Using a football analogy Boston gained a few yards closer to getting into that endzone and breaking the record.
    I would inside the 2 yard line.

  154. I believe coating for boston tonight/ tomorrow. Last night went as planned. Heavy snow.

      1. I don’t know I’m sticking with 1″ inch max . This one is heading cape bound.

  155. A light rain overnight washed away the roughly 2 inches we got on the front end here in Hingham. Just cloudy here right now with a temp of 35. When I first looked out back it looked like some of the snow pack and snow banks had gone down several inches but then when I looked a level ground out front no such luck.

  157. A slight jog further north will make a huge difference. Living on the edge with this next round of snow.
    I am thinking a general 1-3 inches SNE higher amounts further south in SNE. I thinking Boston will be under an inch for setting the all time record when all is said and done.

    1. I feel it in my bones. Boston makes it over the top when this one is
      done.

      Funny thing last night. Eric didn’t come out and say it, but He hinted
      that unless Tomorrow put Boston over the top, that may be it.
      He mumbled a Hmmm. 😀

  161. I really don’t want anything more…twice this week up at 5:30 shoveling. I hate these small storms…would rather a foot and call winter over.

  162. Good morning!! Looking like a milder day, lots of ponding and minor flooding reports this morning. Winter is about over, next week looks milder than this week 🙂 we are almost there. The season begins in 10 days or so, Just monitoring but it’s go time just about. 95 clients are ready to go beginning late next week, small training day next Thursday/Friday and following Monday everyone is out. Been busy with many things and it’s about to get busier. Enjoy the day!! 🙂 happy times are going to be here again 🙂

  163. Well, I thought we might see some snow melt.

    Nope. 🙂

    I think the 2″ that fell last night may have melted, but that’s about it.

    Now, with this and the past event or 2, all that’s happened to the snow pack is that its water logged.

    No cheap snow left on the ground now. We’re going to need full sunshine or high dewpoints going forward to make progress on this stuff.

    1. What fell did NOT melt here. I added to my snow piles this morning.
      heavy stuff that doesn’t melt easily.

    1. Thank you and No worries TK. You have had a lot in your plate and we can post here just fine 🙂

    2. Kinda funny…over 400 comments over this little snow. You would think it was a blizzard.

  165. Remarkable. I don’t think Boston made it to 40. My thermometer says 36 right now. Did it get warmer than that overnight? Will it get to 40 today?

    It was of course a minor event. But, as I mentioned last night, it was unusual to see almost no rain in Boston given the low’s track. Very little melting. I was pleasantly surprised on my run to see only minor ponding and puddling (is that a word?). In fact, on the path there was a layer of crusty/slushy ice and snow that just won’t go away. I had expected that at least to disappear.

    All along I’ve pinned my hopes on Thursday. I think we can and will squeeze a few more inches out of that system. It’s going to be very close. `95-96 may remain number 1 after all. We’ll see.

  166. Awoke to 35 Degrees. It was up to 36 when I left the house. Hasn’t even sniffed
    at 40. Will it today? I don’t know. Front is just about here, although it may
    sneak up a few degrees, that front will prevent any significant warm up today.

  167. BTW, I had to shovel virtually everything that fell. There was practically no melting
    over night. A very little.

    1. Logan = 37 at 8 AM.

      Blue Hill = 35

      Norwood = 37

      Worcester = 35

      Pittsfield = 32 (need to watch this one for falling temperatures)

    2. And Another!!!

      No injuries reported after vacantMarshfield building collapses

      By Patriot Ledger
      Posted Mar. 4, 2015 at 8:25 AM
      Updated at 8:27 AM

      MARSHFIELD – Fire officials are on the scene of a vacant commercial building that collapsed suddenly Wednesday morning.
      Officials say the former Anderson Tire building on Ocean Street was unoccupied and no one was hurt in the collapse. Firefighters were sent to the building, which was described as a total loss, around 7 a.m. Wednesday.
      State emergency response officials say that more than 170 buildings have been damaged in recent weeks by this winter’s unprecedented snowfall. On Tuesday, 10 horses had to be rescued after a barn in Norwell collapsed overnight, trapping several of the animals in their stalls.
      – See more at: http://www.patriotledger.com/article/20150304/NEWS/150308661#sthash.F57uClZk.dpuf

      1. Oh yes, I know where that is. Thankfully, it is vacant and no one should have been around there, hopefully.

        1. Corrected address is 83 Sprague – numerous live wires down in the area! I hope you don’t lose you power!!!

          1. I’m plenty far enough away. That location is out in Readville very near the Milton line. That’s
            5-6 miles from me. But, thank you for the heads up.

      1. It’s adding more weight to a structure that is already stressed out to the max.

        1. What gets me is that people (Facilities, Management, ownership) DON’T HEED the warnings to get the
          snow off of the roofs!!!

          1. That’s just not being professional . I know the building in marshfield has been empty for awhile. I’m telling you roofs that have not been cleared off more so flat roofs there is just to much weight on there and it’s not good.that snow had some weight to it look for more today. In the middle of these roofs you have ice building up and that’s heavy duty.

  175. Hmmm
    Although the 12Z NAM is not complete, it appears to be creeping Northward. Not
    a lot, but it appears to be happening.

  176. Well it’s official. 😆
    The NWS thinks Boston falls short of the record tomorrow. We shall see.
    That does not address the rest of the season, just tomorrow.

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2m2 minutes ago
    [Boston snow record] Only needs 1.9″ for snowiest winter on record. Latest data indicates they probably fall short tonight/Thursday.

    1. I worry a lot of the schools. I know Lexington evacuated an elementary yesterday that is pretty much the same design as all of the schools in this area built in the 1950s with a totally flat roof. A worker heard a loud noise. If they are not going to clear them – and Framingham has said they are NOT clearing – they need to inspect daily. I know that sounds extreme but one or the other folks.

      There is NO excuse for the number of barns that have collapsed and trapped horses. I think the owners should be held completely responsible. Those horses got out alive but I guarantee they will have issues because of it.

      2. Vicki shame on Framingham for refusing to shovel the roofs even more crazy they should cause flat old roofs prime for that to happen. I hope they have a structural engineer inspecting those roofs

          1. I don’t think they have a brain to share. I’ve said before that they insist kids go to school sick as long as there is no temp – brochitis and upchucks do not matter. Now they are allowing kids to go to school with head lice as long as it is just the eggs..

            Although the fact they sent an email to parents saying they will not be shoveling is beyond any of that.

  180. I was wrong last night and I’ll be wrong again. Tomorrow’s snow (or lack thereof) does not get it done in Boston. However, as Josh alluded to in a prior post. All it will take, is a simple snow squall to put Boston over the top.

  182. 10AM Boston = 38
    Blue Hill = 37
    Norwood = 39
    Worcester = 36
    Pittsfield = 32

    Will Boston crack 40?

    1. There is much posted above that could have initiated that response.
      Could you possible enlighten us as to which post tickled your funny
      bone? Thanks

      1. Too many things to list OS. 🙂

        By the way I hope you don’t feel bad if you want 1.9 more at Boston. I sure don’t. 🙂

        1. I just want it over with. The focus on the record is ………… oh heck, too many words to say.

            1. Silly question…..refresh my memory if you will as I truly do not recall. Were you one of the few who said that if the Pats did not win the superbowl that it did not detract from their record and the team they are?

              I’m not being a wise arse. I’m trying to figure if there is a correlation here between those who need (and that is meant in a positive way) the record and those who do not.

              I like to deal in stats too. I absolutely agree re stats, but in my opinion only, this is not the worst winter on record. It was a piece of cake for all but six weeks.

        2. You are entitled to that thought, of course.
          I can’t help it. I WANT that record broken. Sorry about
          that for those who don’t. Just the way I (and others) are wired.

          I think we have at least a 50-50 shot tomorrow, although
          the NAM is NOT cooperating. 😀

          1. OS – I am not sure many here do not want the record. We had ten vote that they wanted it and five say they do not care. There is a huge difference between not caring and not wanting.

            I should have elaborated on my post above and that is my error as it left too much room for guessing. I just think we are focusing on one little part of what this past six weeks has been about. I just want it broken so we can move on and enjoy the history we have experienced.

  184. RAP Rapid Refresh (RAP) continues to show snow moving into Boston
    around 1AM tomorrow.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015030414&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=016

    The Rapid Refresh is the continental-scale NOAA hourly-updated assimilation/modeling system operational at NCEP. RAP covers North America and is comprised primarily of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize that model.

    RAP forecasts are generated every hour with forecast lengths going out 18 hours. Multiple data sources go into the generation of RAP forecasts: commercial aircraft weather data, balloon data, radar data, surface observations, and satellite data.

  186. Update later as I said but early idea for tomorrow is C-1 northern MA to NH border, 1-3 Boston to Worcester southward except 3-6 South Coast.

    Not sure if record falls yet.

  187. Mud season is here. Fork lift stuck in the back yard and UPS Track barely made it out of the lot. I opened my office window and all I can here is water pouring into the gutters and down spouts. Music to my ears.

    My opinion on not breaking the seasonal snowfall record last week is sadly still looking good at this time. Who would have thought when we attempted to discussed this last week, that we would be sitting here on Wednesday the 4th with a 2″ deficit from the record? Not Many.

    Here is to hoping the snow shield buckles north and Boston receives 2″ tomorrow!

    1. Hallelujah.. I promise to put my hair dryers away if you promise to limit it to just enough for the record 🙂

      1. I PROMISE I WANT SPRING as soon as we put this
        to rest. SPRING SPRING SPRING!!!! WARMTH and SUNSHINE and GREEN GRASS!!!!!!

    2. I have a feeling that if it gets broken, the mania won’t end. It will then become how far over the last record can we get HA.

    3. Well, we have 3 models in regarding record.

      NAM = NO
      RGEM = YES
      GFS = YES

      I guess there is just the Euro left.

  189. The HRRR is inexplicably stuck at 12Z. Should have been updated to
    13 or 14Z by now?????? I want to see the trend with that high resolution model.

    Has anyone seen any output from the WSI RPM model?

  190. DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 43s43 seconds ago

    THATS THE BALL GAME!!! THE END OF WINTER 2014-15– PV leaves N America move to Greenland.. Strong zonal pac flow

    1. And since he is GOD, I guess we should believe him. 😀

      I have seen similar statements elsewhere, so we shall see.

      1. Yeah Pete more or less said snow over after the Thursday threat. I am in that camp for no reason other than they are telling me what I want to hear.

  191. Boston cracked 40 Degrees.

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    [11am] 42 degs at #Boston’s Logan airport at 11 am! This is the first 40 deg temp since Jan 19th This 43 day stretch is a new record! #MA

  194. Back is absolutely killing me after shoveling 3″ of water laden snow and sleet. I am up to 81.5″ on the year. Catching up to you guys a little.

    It seems to be a battle between the American and International models for tomorrows storm. Euro/GGEM/RGEM/UKMET are further north. GFS/NAM more suppressed.

    The 0z Euro brought the 6″ snow line about as far north as JJ and my locations in CT. 3″ amounts up to the Pike and it looks like about 2.5-3″ for Boston but right on the sharp cutoff between less and more:
    http://i.imgur.com/iqoSBMN.jpg

      1. Yes, indeed – you are right. NAM is now in the minority.

        12z UKMET is coming in further north as well.

        Growing consensus that Boston breaks the record, and advisory level snows make it up as far north as the Pike.

  196. Do we have to go through this every March?

    YOU DO NOT DECLARE WINTER OVER IN EARLY MARCH. PERIOD.

    1. Well, it looks as if Pete and DT have done so and perhaps a few bloggers.
      The rest of us know better, I think.

      Not to say we don’t want REAL SPRING to arrive sooner rather than later. 😀

      1. Regardless of wants, the atmosphere is what it is. We don’t make the rules for it. 🙂

        1. For sure. I suppose it is human nature for wants
          to creep into forecasts, if one is not careful. 😀

    2. Winter was declared over in December IIRC. I haven’t seen anyone declare it is over recently.

    3. I think it is, science be dammed. The argument I hear all the time is “a winter like this just doesn’t stop like a light switch.” Odd argument considering it came in that way. I don’t see why it can’t just stop. So feel free to rib me if I am wrong but I think after this week we are in the clear.

  197. From the NWS hazardous weather outlook from earlier this morning (Way before
    12Z runs were in)

    THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO
    THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COASTS OF
    RI AND MA. LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THERE.

  198. Everything else above I will catch up on later. Not much time for the next several hours.

  199. If the 12Z Euro comes in with Snow for tomorrow, I’m officially TOSSING the NAM
    for this one. Also IF it comes in, it’s GAME ON as far as I am concerned.

    Also, if it comes in, you will see the NWS post a Winter Weather Advisory for most
    all of SNE, except for Far Southern areas who are likely to see A Winter Storm
    Warning for 6+ inches.

    IF it comes in with None, then what? FIIK
    (If you never saw that before it means: Bleeped IF I KNOW!)

    1. OS, see my post above. UKMET is north as well – NAM is now in the minority. I think advisories get posted up to the Pike. Up to the VT/NH border may be pushing it.

      1. May be pushing it, but the NWS may do it anyway. Let’s see
        what happens.

        You are correct. The NAM seems to be the OUTLIER now.

      2. WOW!! Total qpf from UKMET is between
        .4 and .6 inch for Boston. With the arctic air oozing in,
        I could see ratios at 12:1.

        .4*12=4.8 inches
        .5*12=6 inches
        .6*12=7.2 inches

        Could represent a range of 4-8 inches. Pretty bullish.

        Here is the map it shows 10-15MM.
        10MM=.39+ inch
        15MM = .59+ inch

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR&lang=en&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

        We’re almost boring on 20MM = .78 inch

        WOW!!!!!!

  200. This is so funny it’s really SAD!

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago
    GFS now sticking a dagger into the heart of week 2 false spring. Finds new big arctic high.

  201. These mets need to stop these ridiculous tweets based on each 300 hour model run. This March is likely going to act like most other March’s. We will still have some bouts of cold and wintry weather to deal with. We will have further snow chances. We will also have some days where we will be in the 40’s/50’s and have a good taste of Spring. There is nothing unusual about this pattern at all.

  202. It finally happened–water coming in somewhere around the chimney, running down the kitchen wall and dripping into the basement. Ughh

    2. So sorry, Dave. I am afraid this will happen more and more now that whatever is left or whatever is added is thawing rapidly. Our roof was totally clear at the start of this week and even the little we have is coming in for the first time.

    4. I feel your pain Dave, battling this all over the house this winter… we are almost at the finish line… I think.

  203. Mark, I completely agree about these ridiculous tweets. One-liners that either mislead or tell you next to nothing. I know. I’m an old-fashioned curmudgeon when it comes to social media gimmicks like Twitter. I just don’t see value-added to tweets. I like thoughtful discussions, or at least some context.

  204. It’s official, by the way, the South Shore of Massachusetts is America’s new snow belt. Ribbon-cutting ceremony to be held in Marshfield on Thursday afternoon. I believe Tom will be the master of ceremony. Of course, Keith and Sue will also be there. It’s rumored Charlie will be on hand as an authorized heckler yelling “spring’s here” every time the word “snow” is uttered. The Buffalo mayor will officially pass the torch of America’s snowiest region to the recently formed South Shore Snow committee. The ceremony is planned for Thursday to coincide with yet another snow event that puts the South Shore in the jackpot zone.

  205. With the heaviest snow coming on the south coast I think Charlie will need to delay the spring visits for those folks. Look like a late start this year.

    1. My son said there is a lot of snow on the ground in Hopkinton, RI, and they are supposed to get six more inches or so tonight. Not sure Charlie was ever going to start in a few weeks.

  206. This is a new one.. my 8 y.o. son wakes me up around 4:30AM.. “sorry to bother you dad, but I think there is a problem in my room”

    95% of the time it is a bad dream or his covers fell on the floor… walk in to his room, low and behold – there is water dripping from the center of his room… out of the overhead light fixture in the ceiling

    a decent pool of water below… less than a foot from the space heater (furnace is out – yeah good times!)

    we had an impromptu conversation around electrical dangers and then got a towel and pot to catch the water

    some winter!

    2. That is way to scary. My neighbor tends to get a leak through his light fixture also. I know it is the path of least resistance, but electricity and water are not good. Sorry to hear this, Captain.

  207. Yikes, sorry to hear about your leaking problems Captain and Dave. Some winter indeed.

    12z Euro still with advisory snows south of the Pike. It has nudged south and maybe backed off a touch on QPF from 0z but not much. Still looks like around 2″ for Logan. More on the south side of the City, less on the north side.

    http://i.imgur.com/oXvArKw.jpg

    1. Great! So in reality, we don’t know anything.
      It might snow, it might not. We might break the record tomorrow and we
      might not.

      So what else is new around here.

  210. 1. 107.6″ = 1995-96
    2. 105.7″ = 2014-15 (to date)**
    3. 96.3″ = 1993-94

    ** WROR- FM 105.7 😀

  211. Part of me feels like this record is bogus whether we break it or not. Are we to assume every “measurement” at Logan was accurate? What about measurements back in 96-96? Was it the same person taking all the measurements? Scientifically the system is flawed. That’s my 2 cents 😀

    1. Of course you are correct. I think during 95-96 there was some sort
      of controversy about the “wipe away” method of measuring the snow.
      If you wipe away after every couple of inches, of course it result
      in a larger total. There was something going on. I can’t remember exactly.

      BUT given all of that, What else are we to do?

      1. If my memory serves me well, given what I posted above,
        We have ALREADY broken the record because I don’t think
        the 95-96 record is real. BUT that is strictly my opinion.

  214. I will attempt to sprinkle some snow out of the plane window tomorrow as I fly out of Logan at 7AM. Will that help break the record?? 🙂

    1. Only IF it lands where the observer measures the snow. If you can make that happen go for it. Good luck tomorrow.

    1. So for this even you believe Logan falls short, since NWS and therefore you
      are calling for 1-2 inches and you KNOW it ain’t gonna be the 2, so it’s the 1 and Logan will be 0.9 inch short. 😀 😀 😀

  217. I don’t recall any controversy regsarding any 1995-96 measurements but there was a question regarding the 2003 Presidents’ Day Storm. Logan had measured 27.5″ but the average for eastern MA was around 19 or 20 inches. After about a week of investigation the amount stood.

    1. Feb. 17-18, 2003 = 27.5″ * (bogus??)
    2. Feb. 6-7, 1978 = 27.1″

    1. Philip,

      Perhaps that is exactly what I was remembering. I knew it was something.

      Thank you.

  219. To help ease some concern about the record vs 95-96 …..

    in 95-96 ….. The last decent measureable snow in March of 96 occurred on 3/8/96

    Winter than absolutely gave way to Spring for the rest of March 1996. 40s and 50s were common. It hit 61, 62 and 60 on 3 out of the last 7 days of the month.

    At that point, the snow total for 95-96 was only sitting at 100.3 inches. Huh ? Well, it snowed 7.3 inches in April to get us to 107.6 inches.

    So, in current date comparisons of seasons, we are about 5 to 10 inches ahead of the 95-96 season pace.

    Do you think if we had twitter back in 95-96, they would have proclaimed winter over after March 8th ? I’m guessing yes.

    It is a bit worrisome to have to depend on April snow to break 95-96. It certainly is not a guarantee.

    But, if it comes to needing that, then winter 14-15 will have to be able to get it done. I know, its like I’m assigning it consciousness, which is crazy, but hopefully you get my point.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow doesn’t get it done and its ok if winter disappears for the rest of March. There is all of April.

      1. Sicko is NOT a word I would use. Passionate comes to mind. But I did laugh out loud when I read that comment !

    2. Thank you, Tom. Interesting to compare this winter to that and fascinating that 1996 shut off so quickly.

  220. AND so it begins! I know it’s the 18Z run, BUT the NAM has come considerably NORTH.
    NOT that it delivers block buster snow, because it does NOT, BUT it brings the 2-3
    inch level to BOSTON.

    Map when it is complete.

  221. Month-by-month snow total 1996-96 @ Logan = 107.6″

    November = 4.1″
    December = 24.1″
    January = 39.8″
    February = 15.5″
    March = 16.8″
    April = 7.3″

  222. It seems like some night thing boston gets a thumping tonight it’s not going to happen. This is a cape storm boston d-1″

    1. Is that what Harvey told you last night?

      The SNOW is coming. Just a matter of how much.
      D-1 inch John? I think you are sadly wrong.

      Would you believe 2-4 or perhaps 3-5? Get ready.

      We shall see.

    1. That is quite a back off. NOT consistent with what we are now seeing.
      I’m guessing they go back the other way.

  224. Slowly but surely Providence (and Charlie) is catching up to Boston. The last 3 storms have produced much more snow there than in Boston. We’re not talking huge amounts, but still. The next storm will likely produce more there than in Boston. My guess is Providence will be over 70 inches for the season after tomorrow.

    2. Still a couple major snowstorms away in terms of snowfall from Boston. Boston really was the epicenter for the storms this winter. Providence is usually only a few inches away in terms or average seasonal snowfall. It’s been snowy in providence too, above average yes, but nowhere near a record

  226. FIGURES! The Bruins couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag!!!

    Marc Bertrand retweeted
    Aaron Ward ‏@TSNAaronWard 10m10 minutes ago
    More bad news for Boston Bruins. Brett Connolly takes shot to hand in practice and the initial results show its broken. #TSN

  227. The latest CPC Outlook has SNE missing storms to our south for the next two weeks with well above normal precip mid-Atlantic states and well below normal around here.

        1. Yes. Also note: there is 5 more hours of snow to come.
          That map ends 8AM. Cold temperatures = Very slippery roads. Yes, indeed.

            1. Ok then, for the totals on the map no,
              but add in the 5 more hours, then what?
              😀 😀

              Enjoy the snow because it’s coming. Advisory or not.

  230. The record is the record imo. If we break tonight which I think we will then it’s legit. Not taking this away from us. 🙂

  237. NWS indicates the snow forecast is based on a blend of the 12z NAM/15z SREFS. Problem is that the 18z NAM came north and a good deal of other guidance is north with higher snow amounts than the NWS forecast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out. I think their numbers are a bit low, but not by much.

    Boston may very well be a few tenths of an inch away from the record (one side or the other) by the time this is over.

  238. Weatherwiz, you made a comment earlier about how much of a nuisance all these 2-3″ events have been and I could not agree more. I really start to lose the “itch” for snow in March unless its a nor’easter or something sizable to track and watch. Let’s break the record and then move onto 80’s and sunshine! From what Charlie has been saying I thing southern RI has already seen weather like that given they will have bare ground by the end of next week, so we know it’s close by.

    1. GFS – son is in Hopkinton RI weekly. He has no idea what Charlie is seeing but the area he is in won’t be seeing grass for a bit and they did have six inches forecast for tonight. That might have changed as I do not watch that area.

    2. Yeah I find many small storms to be like water torture. I’d rather get a foot and get nothing else for a week or two. Hoping tomorrow doesn’t pan out for my location or it would be three times in a week.

    3. When you reach Exit 9 on I-95 in Rhode Island the snows magically disappear. A veritable Caribbean paradise awaits you. The Verrazzano bridge ushers you into sun-drenched Jamestown where the sounds of steel drums, the smell of coconut, the vista’s offering panoramic views of beaches and bikini-clad women, and the taste of pina colada, envelop you.

  239. Seriously….what is with south of the pike and north of the pike. It drives me nuts. I live on the Pike (well not literally) and have no idea what it means when someone uses that (verbally) as a cutoff.

    2. Ike was known to be a weather buff and created our nation’s interstates and state turnpikes in such a way that they perfectly delineate cut-off points for snow amounts. Not once since the 1950s has the Eisenhower delineation been proven wrong.

      1. Oddly I knew that. But if the below the pike is a warning and above the pike is not, what happens to folks on the pike.

        I am too literal I think 🙂

  240. Update from NWS expressing uncertainty:

    ..Another Winter Storm expected tonight into Thursday. This storm focused on South Coastal New England. Uncertainty level higher than normal for this particular event due to a sharp cutoff in the heavier versus lighter snow, timing the transition from rain to snow from north to south and just a small deviation of track of 30-50 miles can make a significant difference in snowfall amounts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike (higher snowfall if the track is a bit further north, lower snowfall if the track is a bit further south)..

  241. From NWS out of Upton, NY I think Boston will be very close but not break the record after this snowfall.
    SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
    THE SNOW…ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IF ANY NORTH SHIFT
    NORTH OCCURS…TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ON THE
    OTHER HAND…IF A SOUTH SHIFT OCCURS…TOTALS COULD END UP LOWER

  247. Fwiw…Current NWS thinking is 0.7″ for Boston.

    So if above amount verifies = 106.4″ (-1.2″ shy)

    1. Although one way or the other this is fine with me, I feel pain for those who want to break the record. Talk about dragging it out. You gotta love mother natures sense of humor

      1. I would love to see the record broken tonight once and for all, but realistically, it is probably going to take the rest of the month to do so. 😉

  248. OS, With the north shift of the GFS you are on! I really do enjoy your enthusiasm! I wish you were a met running around the set with excitement. Wouldn’t go as far as Al Kaprlean (spelling) on WNDS from Windham NH in the early 90’s, but close! Love it!!

    1. If we are going to get snow, let’s do it.

      P.S. Can someone please stop by and rake my roof in the morning….just a small area and I’ll make breakfast

  250. The record is going down!!
    Winter weather advisories will
    Be posted.
    Now waiting on 0z runs. A bit more of
    A shift and there will be a last minute
    Winter storm warning!!!!

  251. Here are the Boston amounts for tonight/early tomorrow:

    Pete = coating – 2″
    Harvey = coating -2″
    Eric = coating -2″
    Kevin L. = coating -2″
    NWS = 1-2″

  253. I am mobile and cant or wont try to
    Post a link, but 18z rgem has 5-6
    Inches for boston. That is a solid model.
    Its a fine mesoscale model.

  254. There’s one problem with this northward trend, it showed up on the 18z guidance. Expect 00z guidance to correct back

    1. 12z started it.
      Do not get lulled.
      This is the real deal.
      Check out thr latest
      Wrf in addition to rgem.

      1. You are banking on that north turn. 5-6 right now I don’t think so. One of us will be wrong.

  255. Just a hunch but with a higher temp and dew point today, along with an ice cold ground, would that have a tendency to draw precip North.? Maybe what the models are starting to see.

  257. Has the front come through yet? If it’s delayed or slowed would that mean snow makes it further north?

  258. Having fun watching all of this discussion from the Gulf of Mexico. No snow down here, but I hope Boston breaks the record tonight.

  260. Can see the pavement of my street for the first time since late January. Also had my first smell of the spring tonight, skunk

    2. Yup winter is on its last breath and will slowly be winding down. I love when March hits cause I know the snow and cold is on its way out. I like the fall but get bummed at the end thinking of the beginning of winter. Yup might not be tomorrow or next week or hell the week after but winter is and will be ending soon. HHH not that far off my time of year.

    3. Well I can now see the trunk of my car but that’s just because my neighbor needed a car seat and I had one in the trunk so she cleared it. Otherwise, possibly 2 inches lost on lawn where the reindeer is buried up to its antlers

    4. Our street, too! Strong skunk smell while out shoveling early afternoon. Someone must have woke stinky up 🙂 pee-ew!!!

  261. I sense we’re walking a fine line with this event.

    On the one hand, we need the cold air to be able to come in to cool the column again.

    On the other hand, we need it not to come in too strong, or it could suppress the where the temp gradient is for the precip to move along.

    I think we need that perfect balance and that’s why its probably not the most likely outcome.

  262. Better break that record. The pattern looks really unfavorable going forward. That inch or so could be a mile.

    1. I was thinking that yesterday, but then I saw the GFS today.

      And …………. there’s nothing pressing long term on it.

      But, I did see some opportunity for cold shots and it just kind of reminded me that a lot of cold air, both aloft and at the surface, wont be too far away from us for another 3 to 4 weeks.

      It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if we got a big snowstorm again.

      1. I agree with you on the snowstorm. As much as I see the winter just sort of petering out, would it totally shock you for winter to give us one last left hook?

  263. Hi all!

    Quick snow overnight. Same amounts I posted earlier today.
    Very cold for March on Friday! Cold weekend too!
    Less cold next week but still below normal temps – minor precipitation events at most.
    One of the TV guys advertised middle 50s for Tuesday. Maybe south of NYC, not here.

    After day 10, anomalous cold returns with a threat of snow again around St. Pat’s Day. That should be a temporary blip in what is a shifting large scale pattern.

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