The Week Ahead

137 Comments

10:11PM

SUMMARY…
As we transition from March to April this week, we won’t see any major changes to the overall pattern. Though there is a shot of mild air in the forecast later in the week, the overall pattern is still cool and somewhat active. We start out with low pressure passing north of southern New England Monday bringing the threat of some light precipitation – maybe a touch of very light snow early and a few rain showers later. It now appears that the threat of snow in southern areas for late Tuesday is minimal as a follow up system should remain very weak and pass to the south of southern New England. A small area of high pressure will bring fair weather for the first day of April on Wednesday. It still looks like another low pressure area will take a track northwest of the region late Thursday and Friday. A sluggish warm front will move through later Thursday bringing the threat of some rain. We should bust into the warm sector of this system for a time on Friday which will likely be the mildest day of the week, but also holding the chance for rain showers at some point as a cold front approaches then crosses the region. The details of how warm and sky condition / shower threat will not be known until the timing of the system is more certain. An early look at the weekend indicates some unsettled weather Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region and the recently-passed cold front will be just offshore with a potential wave of low pressure on it. For now, going to go for Sunday (Easter for those celebrating it) to be a chilly day with a threat of a few passing snow showers from a disturbance, but again timing is very suspect this far in advance and therefore forecast confidence is low.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow/mix morning. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 50.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day rain. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early light snow/mix. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

137 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK

    Pretty typical late March pattern. Nothing to get excited about. Btw whomever asked me earlier to enjoy the season I do!! I love spring summer and fall. I have two boys who need outdoor time so trust me I would love some warm weather, but I am realist and understand where we live.

    1. Absolutely. And it was indeed a very nice day today, just chilly. We’ll have more of those, and some unsettled days, maybe even a little more late-season snow. March/April … fickle time of year.

  4. Whenever I hear snow threat and rain threat I think, is this a verbal threat? Are we afraid for our lives? How serious is this? And what a funny phrase 😛

    Thanks TK 😀

  5. Thanks Tk

    Average high April 1st 50-55 degrees, April 30th 60-65 degrees, the kids will be happy 🙂

    1. We may get to the average high on Wednesday! And maybe even above it for a day on Friday!

  7. Leaving Fort Myers today to come home. The last few days have been in the low 70’s, no humidity, and gentle breezes. Too good to be true.

    1. Glad you had a nice weather – now if you could just bring some of that niceness back north with you 🙂

      1. If he can’t convince it to come north, I’ll try when I go down there April 15-21. 🙂

  8. Well, I seem to have access from school. 🙂 That’s good !! 🙂 🙂

    Good luck Longshot bringing some of the Florida warmth back with you !!

    1. Tell them to get out of the way! You’re gonna be late for your lawn appointment! 😉

  13. Just started raining, it’s very like, ground is already wet, doesn’t look to last longer than 45min to an hr, truck temp says 38 degrees 😉

  15. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04W/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

    We can be thankful that we live in a part of the hemisphere that you really have to be worried about the tropics from June to October.

    In the west Pacific, it seems year round is fair game.

    This seems to be the first strong hurricane out there in the northern hemisphere after a few month respite.

    I have no idea of its future track, but ….. wouldn’t it be funny, knowing that it seems we are headed for warmer times in mid April, IF this thing got tugged off onto that track that sends a strong extra tropical cyclone towards western Alaska and that fouls up the whole pattern by reinforcing the western US ridge – eastern US trof.

    As I recall last November, the pattern was shocked hemisphere wide by one of the strongest extra tropical cyclones seen on record taking that traditional track into westernmost Alaska.

  16. Good morning all,

    What a Day yesterday. Absolutely Beautiful!!!!!
    AND it did get to the forecasted high of 42, even if still 8+ Degrees below average.

    Had supper at Tony’s Clam shop in Wollaston and a Diary Queen afterwards.
    Sure signs of SPRING!!!!

    GFS is much farther North for tomorrow night’s clipper.
    NAM and CMC want to bring “some” snow as far North as Boston and little beyond.
    Not much, perhaps an inch or so.

    Just started SNOWING here, even though radar indicates RAIN!!! 😀 😀 😀

  17. I’m driving north to Vermont this morning and more snow will impact my travel, from Northern Mass. to Vermont. I’ve had very few breaks this winter in terms of clear weather on my visits to my ailing mother. She’s hanging in there, thank goodness.

    Raw and cold this morning on my early morning run. Icy patches on the paths suggest it got below freezing last night and was below freezing at 6:30am. Ice on the Charles is breaking up finally, but for the second consecutive year there will be ice on the Charles on the 1st of April. Amazing.

    1. Safe travels and prayers for your mom, Joshua.

      We saw large chunks floating down the Charles in Newton the other day. Wished we cold have stopped to take a picture.

  20. Snow fairies floating down here with some wind picking up. Absolutely beautiful to watch! How do I never tired of this?

      1. As close as I could come but pictures do not do them justice 🙂

        https://www.google.com/search?q=snow+fairy+picture&rlz=1C1ASAC_enUS576US576&espv=2&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=a2YZVfCSLYeXgwTf44OACg&ved=0CD4Q7Ak&biw=1366&bih=653#imgdii=_&imgrc=cl-zzJsl5BO_pM%253A%3BQ5RgDxhCT1R1jM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fimage.blingee.com%252Fimages15%252Fcontent%252Foutput%252F000%252F000%252F000%252F4c1%252F354660660_1081934.gif%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fblingee.com%252Fblingee%252Fget_code%252F79769792-snow-fairy-%253Fimage%253D354660660%3B359%3B384

        1. Well, she’s cute but I’m sick of dating her at this point. Maybe she has a cousin who’s a little warmer?

    1. Yes, you’re right. And that’s indicative of a hardy New Englander. Imagine telling someone from San Diego “hey, it’s 37, snowing, and feels nice outside.”

      2. My sister in law said it was chilly in Atlanta yesterday. When I asked the temp, she said 61. It is all relative 🙂

  22. Thanks, Vicki, for your message.

    I’ll listen to Carole King (Tapestry), James Taylor (Sweet Baby James), and R.E.M (Fables of the Reconstruction) on my way up.

  23. The snow/mix portion is about done. Anything later will be rain showers. Milder air moving in … in a relative sense.

    1. Well perhaps, but I just went home for lunch and it was snowing the whole way home, while I was eating and all the way back. 😀
      Mostly rain now.

      1. Nothing here but was a combination of frozen rain and snow when we left at 12:30 for lunch. It is a winter cold today and on the bitter side. Makes me think of early December days.

  25. Oh boy, 12Z GFS for April 4th, too close for comfort.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015033012&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=123

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015033012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=123

    Boundary layer looks to prevent a decent snowfall for a white Easter.
    Still time. Need to monitor

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015033012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

    1. Excellent as usual.

      We had the Tony Burger (Burger with Cheese, bacon, lettuce and tomato, awesome!) with french fries and the best onion rings in the world. 😀

  27. Another beautiful spring day in the Northeast. 37 degrees in North Reading and occasional snowflakes spitting down. It is March 30, right?

    1. Yeah, “beautiful”. Even yesterday, it wasn’t beautiful imo. There’s only so many days of significantly below normal one can take. I’ve raised the bar.

  29. Snowed on and off the entire trip up to east-central Vermont. Light stuff (flurries to light snow), but it was blowing around on the cold highway surface. Temps hovering around freezing. Much colder than forecast. I sincerely believe the models are not properly accounting for the lingering cold in New England. Forget 60s on Friday. I mean it. It ain’t happening. It’ll mostly be a week in the 40s with a couple of upper 30s days thrown in for good measure as well as a day in the 50s.

    Nothing, and I mean nothing looked like spring on my way up. I’ve done this trip in late March many times. This one was different. It looked more or less like mid-winter, especially given the lack of sun.

    Notably, Hingham Mass. has MORE snow than most locales on my drive up north. Exception may be the higher elevation towns like Grantham, New Hampshire.

    1. One of my colleagues also travelled to Vermont this weekend and said the same, more snow left over on the south shore than where they were up there.

  30. 12Z EURO MUCH farther North that previous runs for the clipper system
    tomorrow night. Throws precipitation, presumably snow, to all of SNE
    South of the MA/CT, MA/RI border. Does NOT get up to Boston, however.

    Is there wiggle room yet on this system??? I don’t know.

  31. I guess it has stayed cold enough aloft to support frozen ….. We have some flurries, (ice pellets ??? or graupel, not sure which) and rain drops falling.

    1. This is what I posted:

      12Z EURO MUCH farther North that previous runs for the clipper system
      tomorrow night. Throws precipitation, presumably snow, to all of SNE
      South of the MA/CT, MA/RI border. Does NOT get up to Boston, however.

      Is there wiggle room yet on this system??? I don’t know.

      1. Perhaps today’s system is ending up a bit weaker, ends up a bit weaker in the maritimes and thus does not force the next clipper as far south and west of New England as it appeared it would yesterday ???

        1. Interesting thought, but it doesn’t appear that way.
          Tomorrow night’s system is now essentially toast. 😀

    2. I think it is a sporadic glitch, OS. Lots of mine went into moderation last week and we know I could never say anything that needed moderating 😈

              1. You really want a list?

                Ok here is a list which includes, but is not limited, to the following:

                1. It keeps messing up with moderation etc. Screws up order of posts from time to time.
                2. It does not recognize most HTML. For example, we cannot post an image directly into word press so that when you scroll down the blog, you see the image. We have to post a link.
                3. Won’t allow us to change font size and color.
                4. Does not allow for proper formatting of a post, especially with columns for totals. Even a copy and paste from the NWS comes out all screwed up, even when one takes the time to fix it up. Doesn’t matter, Word press presents it the crappy way it wants to.
                5. Won’t allow us to post a sound file. Again, have to post a link.
                There are times I would like to have a sound file playing when anyone reads my post.

                There’s more, but I can’t think of them off the top of my balding head! 😀

    1. The 2nd of which “appears” to be coming in Farther North. It will probably go poof, but I thought that it was pretty interesting to see and see where it
      goes, if any place at all as in Poof.

      1. The 2nd one does go poof and even the 1st one weakens considerably and passes well South of the area.

  36. Read a couple comments about the last couple of days. Yesterday was awesome! Wore just a sweatshirt bringing firewood up from the backyard. (hopefully the last time this year) Then sat on the front porch and temp was warm enough for a t-shirt. Today was back to coat. Not bad this afternoon but snowed up until 1300 (1pm) temps flirted with 39 degrees with snow. Just amazes me with enough cold air aloft that snow hits the ground. Let’s see what happens the next few days!

    1. It was 37 degrees at my house yesterday. Just curious where you live given that it was warm enough to sit on the front porch wearing a T shirt. 🙂

        1. Mel, I enjoy your posts as you are just down the road. Look forward to reading as spring presses on.

    2. Diamond, I’m liking the tee shirt comment. I switched to long sleeve Ts a while ago with a sweatshirt only if I need a hood in rain or snow. Today was chilly enough for a sweatshirt even without the snow. I am not fond of more than one layer.

      I’m going to attempt to dig out our firepit and take it to the front of the house (glass from window still too much in evidence in back) so we can sit out at the end of the week. Of course rain will probably get in our way 🙂

      1. Good luck with the digout. I’m looking forward to using our burner as well. Nothing like a peaceful evening with a crackling fire on the patio.

          1. The old trusty Coleman tripod wood burner of course! She’s abute! Never let us down on the quiet summer evenings watching bats chase misquitoes and light bugs at the tree line. Can’t wait!

  37. The comments that are being flagged for moderation that should not be are going there because of a sporadic failure (or delay) in the spam checker portion of the program for WordPress. It is not something I can control myself unless I happen to be online, notice it in the folder, and approve it manually.

    Yes, I do agree that WP generally sucks but it’s my only choice for now. Eventually that will change. 🙂

    1. I don’t use it a lot. I’ve used google blogger and did pretty well with that. I think for your purpose it has done well but am really curious about the sucks part and why.

      1. For text it’s pretty decent. I’m not a fan of some of the limitations if you want to take it further than that, but it’s fine for now. It suits what I need for the blog. 🙂

  38. Hello everyone! I just want to say that it’s been a great season so far and it has been nice blogging with all of you in this great historic winter, From TK’s excellent performance on this blog, to OS bringing excitement and joy to this blog as well, and of course everyone else who contributed. This blog is like my weather family. I have been reading here for the past 4 years ( starting first at wbz site) and I was always and STILL curious who is the face behind the writer. lol I don’t know if it’s me only but I am curious how everyone looks like, Reading someone’s post for 4 years makes you curious who is that person behind the computer screen. I could definitely say that this blog helped me procrastinate in school work, it’s too distracting sometimes. Anyhow, I should probably go back to writing my paper. have a nice day everyone

      1. Haha Tk I actually do know how u look like, I believe you posted a picture before so I know your not :p

    2. I agree 100% with your thought. I enjoy the blog and have a good idea of everyone’s views and opinions. Yes, I also get distracted with ” I wonder what the latest models are showing (os) and best forecast (TK) just can’t get enough!

      1. I bet you don’t know my views cause I keep them hidden ;).

        It is great having you both and all the family here. Exceptional comment Kane

  39. Take ALL models with salt grains for a while. There are going to be significant timing differences, inconsistency from run to run, and other typical issues, during the next several weeks, as we enter a long transitional period… Applied meteorology will be more important than ever during this time.

    A few examples: Look at 2 models today and come up with a 65-70 for Friday or a high in the 50s. What to do? what to do??? Hmm, mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers or overcast with accumulating snow Saturday? 2 solutions if you look at some models only. Also, GFS is starting to hint at an Omega Block with New England in the TROUGH part beyond day 10. OS’s favorite kind of weather, should that verify. 😛

    This is when it gets fun for me, folks. 😀

  40. Was reading this website that I think vicki posted before
    http://www.celebrateboston.com/disasters.htm
    it gives out all the disaster weather and other events that happend around New England from the late 1800’s. Wow I never knew my town ( Reading) has a tornado touched down before.
    Tk did you also hear about the Tornado that touched down in Woburn and Stoneham in october 25 in 1925? it was the latest tornado to ever touch down in new england apparently and one person died in woburn as well

    1. On a Sunday afternoon at 3:30PM. If that happened on the last Sunday of October now, it would have occurred during the annual Halloween Parade that goes right through the area where the tornado did most of its damage. One person was killed on Salem Street from a chimney brick. Three women narrowly escaped serious injury and possibly worse as a bell from a church steeple in the center came down right on the front of their vehicle.

      1. Wow, thankfully it didn’t happen when the parade was going on. Its amazing how a tornado can literally strike anywhere. Reading, Stonehame, Woburn, and Tewksbury all had tornadoes before in the past, and last year’s Revere tornado as well. It’s very rare, but it happens

        1. Great link Kane! I’ll be doing a lot of reading. I really enjoy reading of events in the past and wondering how our ancestors made it through such ordeals without modern equipment. Not to mention, being without electricity for weeks on end. Truly remarkable!

    1. Partially shutdown I see. Were looking to end burning wood the end of next week in the fireplace insert, not all by choice, but end of seasoned split. Can’t believe that we’ve burned through it all! We did lose a couple of large poplar at the tree line with the last wind storm so I’ll be starting next years stacks here soon.

    2. Off ?? 🙂

      Nice Vicki ! I wish !

      On heat and A/C, I’m one of those annoying types that goes from one directly to the other. Heat on until its about 60F out ………. and depending on the dewpoint, A/C is fair game starting around 80F. Drives my wife nuts. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Not alone Tom. From one extreme to the next! April and May is that time of year when 50’s one day and summer like 24 hours later! Heat,A/C, Heat Etc!!

      2. But, I might add that with New England weather, there is very little middle.

        Raw, damp, ice cold until late spring, then blazing hot. No 60s or low – mid 70s. 40s and 50s straight to 80s and higher.

      3. Back of house includes the majority of area Mac and I are in from family room to master and in between. And bedroom window is open at night. This is not unusual for me but I think I broke Mac who prefers heat 🙁

  45. TK – Please keep WP. It works perfectly for me. Those “experiments” you tried last year were AWFUL. I had difficulties especially with scrolling and some of my posts disappeared or wouldn’t post at all. With WP I rarely have those issues and I don’t recall ever having any posts “in moderation” except for the first time that I came on board here. I would hate to have to leave this blog.

  46. Tom’s made a couple posts about that strong typhoon in the West Pacific; and while a storm like that can happen there any year at this time, a strong typhoon in the eastern portion of the W-Pac basin in spring is particularly common of El Nino years, and indeed we do have an El Nino strengthening quite nicely across the Pacific. Very warm PDO as well. Model forecasts are for this El Nino to continue to strengthen, with a large pool of very warm sub-surface water currently present and starting to surface.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

      1. Thanks Tom, it’s from the same site OS and I like to get the models from, under the Analysis section 🙂

        And I agree with your points below.

  47. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anom.gif

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

    Credit to NHC, reynolds SST anomolies.

    I enjoy all of Pete B’s blogs, but I really like the one tonight. It made me think of posting the above links. The warm water seen in the Gulf of Alaska goes right down the whole US west coastline.

    The second link ….. All I can think of is …. If that Gulf of Mexico anomoly persists long term and a tropical system gets in there several months from now and the upper level flow is conducive, then its going to have plenty of ocean heat content to work with.

    1. I thought of OS when I read his first or second sentence….can’t remember which.

      Thanks for the links Tom

  48. I’ll be tossing a new update in soon, but here are some thoughts in advance:
    -Clipper stays south late Tuesday
    -Nice April 1, no fooling!
    -Clouding over Thursday ahead of warm front, turning wet late
    -In warm sector Friday but lots of clouds and a risk of rain showers
    -Saturday will likely bring the weekend snow streak to 11
    -Easter Sunday looks COLD with passing snow flurries possible
    -Clouding over Monday with a warm front approaching again
    -Warmest air of the season-to-date is possible by next Tuesday but won’t last

  49. So now …..

    With this El Nino developing …..

    I’ve seen reports that 2014 was one of the warmest years on record (which is an extremely short record in the scheme of things). I think it was a very warm winter for the hemisphere as well.

    I think its fair to say that El Nino’s at least offer the possibility of warming global temperatures at least a bit.

    So, where might we be headed with global temps during this next year with the El Nino impact ?

    Arctic sea ice is low, the west coast is parched, we just had 8 weeks of some other latitude’s winter, Alaska and western Canada are above normal temperature wise and lacking normal snowfall ……

        1. For sure TK !

          It might be nice to get even a moderate El Nino going and hope it carries into next winter for the potential opportunity of rains and snows returning to California.

      1. I suspect there are more but I was not familiar with sources for most of the links and wanted to keep them relatively reputable. PBS to me is that

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