Thursday Forecast Update

91 Comments

3:10AM

SUMMARY…
Again no major changes. Things are doing as expected with a warm and humid air mass in place now, to be cut into by a cold front later today, bringing the risk of some showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast. No severe weather is expected, but a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, especially away from the coast. High pressure brings fair weather and a little drier air for Friday. The feel of Summer returns Saturday as this high will be offshore. Some low cloudiness may reach eastern coastal areas during Friday due to some light easterly flow, and additional low cloudiness may dominate the South Coast Saturday as the wind turns more to the south with more humidity. Another cold front will move in from the west late Saturday and take most of Sunday to push through. This brings more unsettled weather and some chance at least areas of beneficial rain. High pressure presses down from the north by Monday but cloudiness may linger due to onshore flow, breaking up somewhat Tuesday as high pressure moves closer. This high will also bring cooler air as June begins. A warm-up will commence by the middle of next week as the high sinks further to the south.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon well north and west of Boston, late afternoon and evening close to Boston and to the southeast. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 55-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, upper 60s coastal areas. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-65. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Lows 55-60. Highs 60-65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s elsewhere.

91 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  4. 6z NAM for today.
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=EHI&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

    1. With the idea that I don’t have a great understanding of these particular maps, that second link (lift) catches my attention as far as the westerly wind flow at that height. Then, down at the surface, there is south and southwest wind flow, so there’s definitely winds veering with height.

  5. In the long term, I’m having a hard time taking the GFS seriously.

    Its forecasting multi inch rain totals for us over the next 16 days, when it hasn’t rained a total of 2 inches in nearly the last 60 days.

    I know patterns change and a wetter pattern could be coming, but I think I’d like to see a few more model runs confirm this before starting to believe it.

    1. Tom, regarding wind field. SPC has our total area, including area
      in slight zone as virtually 0% chance of Tornadoes.

      Will look at some other parameters shortly.

      1. And hopefully, they are correct 🙂

        Did I see yesterday evening though, that a tornado watch was posted in the central-southern plains in an area that had previously been designated as an area of marginal/slight ……

        I don’t believe we’ll see a tornado watch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a warning today on a cell, because in our area, a warning seems to pop up as soon as they see rotation on the dopplar radar, as opposed to visually seeing a funnel or a tornado on the ground.

        1. Yes, yesterday a tornado watch was issued for an
          area that was just in the “general thunderstorm” area.
          It was in Eastern CO. The mariginal and then slight
          areas were East of there in Kansas.

  6. My heart goes out to the folks in Texas. I was watching coverage this morning. It is beyond belief.

  7. Good morning,

    JJ beat me to it. SPC has moved Boston into the Marginal Severe risk area
    for today, with Slight to the North and West. We’ll see what the new outlook looks like
    this morning. Suffice it to say, there is at least a chance of seeing some RAIN today
    as opposed to yesterday. Will be monitoring. How much Southerly component
    will there be today? Dew Points will be sufficiently high. According to NAM,
    very high CAPE values go right to the coast.

    1. That latest map from the SPC was updated around 8AM this morning.
      SO, nothing else coming until about 1PM. 😀

  8. As of 11:00 am obs. DPs are in the 60-66F range. Certainly humid but no where near “opressive” levels at this time.

  10. Thanks TK!

    I am actually grateful to be back at work today after a rough day off yesterday. I chaperoned a field trip with my son’s first grade class to the NE Aquarium. It was a great day until the bus broke down on Purchase St in Boston and we had to wait for a replacement. That bus got hot mighty quick but I have to say that the 34 kids were so well behaved and we didn’t have any complaints about being too hot, thirsty or having to go the bathroom. It certainly could have been worse. Once we got moving it was a big relief and we could feel the temperature change as we rode down Route 3 South.

    1. A nightmare of an ending to say the least. I sat in our car for a few minutes yesterday and it got frightfully hot very quickly. What a great group of kids! And your baby is in first grade??

  11. The clouds were really building to the north as we drove back from Wellesley through Weston and Wayland. Not much around Framingham now that we are back.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for most of New England except the Cape and islands and I think extreme southeast MA. I’m not surprised they issued it.

    Bright and sunny and breezy here in Sudbury – but it does feel a bit more comfortable than yesterday. Vicki, I too saw some big puffy white clouds earlier going from Framingham back to Sudbury.

    1. Thanks, rainshine and hi!!

      BZ has us in the marginal risk area with more likely north and into the western part. Booo hisss

      1. Hi, Vicki!

        I would like to see us get a “garden variety” thunderstorm with a lot of rain – preferably before/after rush hour. I know one storm isn’t going to relieve much of any drought but any little bit would help. There are already some showers/storms out in Berkshires and north – we will see. I am guessing we will see some storms in the Boston area before nightfall.

  14. Wind still from 200 Degrees at Boston with temp 82 and dew at 65.
    Personally, I’m not expecting severe in the City. Perhaps outside of 128.
    BUT, will continue to watch just in case. 😀

    1. I agree OS.

      I think the surface temperature profile can almost give an idea of where the storms can maintain and where they cant.

    1. Some warnings up in NW MA

      Kennebunkport is having a fairly hefty storm according to a friend there but looks as if it will be short-lived.

    1. Hi clouds moving in here….ugh, not good for storm development. Maybe they will go away.

  17. This is not a complaint. I love summer and the ability to be outside, have morning coffee on the deck and sit on the porch at night and enjoy the feel of summer. I love waiting for storms and the wind that we have had the past couple of days blowing through the house. However…and please remember this is not a complaint but a comparison…..if I had to choose between heat and cold, I would choose cold without a doubt.

    1. Bingo. Stop the mercury’s rise at 74 and give us moderate humidity, please and thank you (:

    2. Me too. As much as I love the summer, long days, etc. keep the temps. no higher than 85 degrees w/little or moderate humidity.

  22. Warnings up along NH/MA border and a bit down into MA. Pete said there have been reports of torrential rain (up to 5 inches) with some.

  23. Until May 4th, Logan hadnt hit 70F.

    Since then, we’ve had (9) 80+F days and (7) days in the 70s.

    Typical New England, no middle. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  26. Perfect example of a storm running into stable air here in CT. Storm had a warning coming into Danbury than as it was moving southeast of there and bam no longer a warned storm.

  27. If the warning boxes are not moving east folks at NWS in Taunton don’t feel the storm will maintain severe criteria at the moment. That certainly COULD change.

    1. Right. And one just went away. Although the line seems to have slowed also. Not sure of that tho

  29. leaving office now. So far up this way, storms “appear” to be maintaining intensity.
    I strongly suspect once the reach the 128-495 zone they will start to weaken
    and will be considerably weaker at coast, if even they make it. We shall see.

    1. Thanks OS. Can you be home in five minutes 😉 just kidding. I think.

      Darker layer of clouds moving in just to my north/northwest. Leaves on trees turning. I know it probably doesn’t mean anything but my dad always said it meant a storm coming.

    1. I’m hearing thunder up your way. Wind that has been very gusty all day just went quiet here

  31. lol dieing collapsing storms,,, gotta love New England, like I’ve said my wife is petrified of storms until we moved here in 04, no longer the case, most will be lucky to see a drop 🙂

    1. She’s lucky. Just hasn’t been in the right place.
      Severe storm went just N of me with hail about 1/2 mile away from here.

      Let’s look at a couple examples. EF2 tornado hits Revere MA last summer. Not a wimpy storm.

      Then there was the storm I chased down Route 3 several years ago that produce a 104MPH downburst in Brockton/Whitman. I saw 3 and 4 foot diameter trees snapped off about 10 feet above the ground.

      Many others examples.

      Yes Texas gets bigger storms, on average, because they are in a region that favors them. Kind of a no brainer actually.

    1. Been reading the blog every day, haven’t had too much time to comment – Vicki, we did get some nice thunders but no visible lightning, and decent wind gusts along with a few bursts of rain. Feel for the folks in Lynnfield today with damage to neighborhoods. My tomatoes, cukes and herbs enjoyed the nice rain.

  34. I will take a rain shower at this point.

    More appreciable and beneficial rain is expected on Sunday when why my children and I have a PMC bike challenge to help raise money for children with cancer. Figures. However, rain won’t stop me from helping as many children a possible.

      1. Thanks Shotime. Support of cancer is very important to me especially when it comes to children.

  36. I was just sent a video by our friend Emily of hail in Stoneham. Roughly dime-sized stones.

    1. Same storm that went through here and Stoneham. We missed the hail at Woods Hill but it occurred just N of here and into Reading/Stoneham and points east.

      1. Yea the hail here lasted very short . I would say a minute tops and it was very small. But I will take it!

  38. Much ado about nothing so far here in Sudbury. A few claps of thunder, dark clouds and some wind. Not one raindrop – yet. Doppler radar looks like parts of Framingham got some rain but totally skipped Sudbury. Still darkish here; but no rain.

    2. We had five minutes of rain and not one clap of thunder rainshine. We should get our storms together

  39. HRRR doing an excellent job today.

    Watch for a new line from Boston to just S of the Pike shortly.

  43. Thanks tk for your response, and your sorta making my point, she lived there for 28, I only lived there for 5, but being from Texas, she hasn’t had to deal with any severe weather since she moved here, neither have I and we have been back since 04, trust me she’s happy, when we lived in Texas, we would see quarter size hail/ tornado watches several times a year, every year. I even saw baseball size hail, there’s no comparison. I sent a pic of our radar to friends in Texas, I don’t need to say what they did. All in good fun. We didn’t receive a drop , maybe we did, I just missed it 🙂

    1. Well I understand all of that and I suppose NOT seeing severe storms is better than seeing them, unless you’re a storm chaser or other sort of weather nut. But comparing the majority of storms here with the ones in Texas is really just an apples and oranges kind of thing. I know it is making your point, but it just is the way it is with regions of the country, and the world. Geography makes a difference. Sort of like we’re never going to see a Cat 5 hurricane arriving in Denver CO. 🙂

      1. I was talking to an acquaintance in TX today. She is a storm chaser and was highly influenced by her Native American grandmother. They have had minimal rain where she lives. No tornadic activity. No flooding. She completely understands that, because her area didn’t get any of the devastation, it does not negate what other parts of the state are coping with. Also, last winter, she repeatedly said she’d rather deal with what they see than with the snow we got.

        It is all about perspective I guess because I’ll take the snow to the tornadoes and flooding. You are so correct that it is apples and oranges.

      3. I love severe weather, it’s the most exciting weather IMO 🙂
        You wanna get your adrenaline flowing over weather, go into a tornado warning with sirens,, wow!! Just wow!! 🙂

        1. A friend of mine, fellow meteorologist and college classmate, and also from the same town as I am, one graduating class after mine, has gone storm chasing many times out there and heard many tornado sirens. I’d probably be correct saying it has the same impact on him each time.

          1. The woman I spoke to, and mentioned here a month or so ago, remembers as a very young child going into her grandmothers storm celler while he grand rounded up chickens.

            I’m a simple soul. My adreniline pumps with a major storm or a beautiful cloud deck or some wind.

            1. We are very similar, but you know that. 🙂

              It must have been almost surreal to go into a storm cellar. I’d be terrified knowing one of my relatives was gathering chickens when a tornado may have been about to strike. Reminds me of Wizard of Oz.

              1. Me too But her grandmother had taught her the peoples respect and understanding of nature. I envy that. Wish we had more of that

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