Weekend Update

199 Comments

5:25PM

COMMENTARY/REMINDER…
Hope everybody is having a good weekend! This is a reminder of a format change coming on Monday. I will still issue The Week Ahead post later Sunday with a 7-day forecast, but the posts starting Monday will have the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 breakdown, as described recently. What follows in this post is a quick update, reflecting a slight change in thinking for early in the week.

SUMMARY…
After a cooler interlude on Friday, the feel of Summer returned on Saturday as the easterly flow was replaced by a southwesterly one. But now another change is coming, and this one will hold some benefit in the form of rain that is badly needed in southern New England. The change will be brought about by a cold front sinking down from the north on Sunday, triggering showers and possible thunderstorms. The front will then hang up and allow disturbances to ride along it, keeping occasional wet weather going Monday and Tuesday. While this is ongoing, an already cool air mass will be made cooler and more damp by an air flow coming from the Canadian Maritmies via the Gulf of Maine. The result will be an April feel to the first couple days of June. It remains to be seen how much rain will take place during the coming 3-day unsettled stretch. There is some chance that the axis of heaviest rain may set up north of the region, leaving southern New England out of getting the most benefit. This will be fine-tuned in future updates. By the middle of next week, high pressure will sink southward and return dry weather to the region. By later in the week, a return southerly flow of warmer air will get underway.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a slight chance of showers late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers developing and may become more widespread. Chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady in 60s South Coast, falling late day. Highs in the 70s elsewhere but falling through the 60s during the afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N from north to south during the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog and drizzle. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 55-60 coast, 60s interior areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and possible drizzle. Lows 50-55. Highs 55-60 coast, 60s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s except 70-75 well inland.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in 50s. Highs 65-70 coast, 70s interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs around 70 coast to around 80 interior.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 60. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.

199 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  3. Thank you TK

    Will the rain hold off until later in day or be with us in am hours. Thanks again

      1. Thanks TK. If they are showers we will be ok for our plans. And even if not, they will be welcome.

  5. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What cirrocumulus clouds look like fish scales?
    A. Lenticular
    B. Uncinus
    C. Mare’s Tails
    D. Mackerel Sky

    Answer is D.

  7. Had some showers move through my area earlier. The sun briefly popped out now back to the clouds. Thankfully no severe weather expected here today just some heavy downpours and embedded thunder.

  8. Heavy downpour to light rain mid…early am. Amounted to 0.1

    TK I like your comments with regard to seeing what we have on the other side of whatever rain we get. Eight weeks ago we were just seeing a few bare spots through the still solid snow cover (everywhere except Charlie’s yard as I know from Norths pictures that there was snow in N Attleboro also). I have a picture of the Subury River ałong Pelham Island road with the water up too the road. Three weeks ago the Sudbury was still higher than average. Now, in just three weeks time, it is mostly mud. These are just the several spots I watch. Even if we got five inches, I don’t believe it means anything unless, as you say, we continue to have rain mixed in.

  9. John Curran who is tied for 2nd…I believe…in the pga tournament this week is from Hopkington, MA. OS, I thought you’d be interested. JJ I know you know the story 🙂

      1. Mac said he thinks Curran was able to play because another player dropped out….perhaps due to illness. He had four birdies in his last five holes last night .

  10. Good morning.

    Front is still North of us.

    Waiting for 10AM Obs. As of 9AM still North of Concord NH, but had
    passed Lebanon. Some rain out there n radar I Can see some evidence that is rained
    sometime overnight.

    1. 6Z NAM still wants to get us good

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150531+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

      As does the 06Z GFS

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150531+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

      CMC global

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015053100/gem_apcpn_neus_20.png

      CMC mesoscale RGEN which only goes out 48 hours

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015053106/rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

      Looking more and more like a substantial rain event. Will help very much at least temporarily. What happens after is what will be key.

  11. As of 10AM fron still North of Laconia, NH and Concord NH,
    However in VT it has passed Burlington, Middlebury, and Springfield.
    It has passed Albany, NY but not Pittsfield, MA

      1. Ok thanks old salty. I don’t mind the rain today at all. Just hope it will be light tonight when I grill the tips for dinner.

  14. Between now and about 1 or 2PM, there is sufficient CAPE and LI to pop some
    thunderstorms around these parts. There were 2 cells just NW of Boston that
    just popped.

    1. No thunder. Heavy shower along and just N of 128/95, which is where my brother is. Nothing here yet. It’s NNW of me.

  18. Just had a very brief sprinkle come through north Attleboro. Looked better on radar. Axis still to the north and west. Still having my doubts south of the pike will ever get into the widespread rains with just some showery times between his afternoon and Tuesday.

    1. Yup, me too.

      I’ll come up from .25 to .5 to ….. .75 to 1 inch from Boston to Providence, points S and E.

      And then hopefully, we get the 1 to 3 inches.

      1. You guys. Hard to ignore the overwhelming model guidance this
        time around. No outliers. All have significant rain.

        Looks like it’s the real deal this time around. 😀

        1. Oh, I want to be wrong !!

          2 or 3 inches of rain would be great !

          I’m envisioning the bullseye of precip being in northern Mass and south-central NH, VT and ME.

          Central Mass, including Logan gets 1+, but drop 20-30 miles further south into our area and I do think its a little less uncertain.

          And with that prediction, we’ll end up with the most. 🙂

            1. I hope everyone remembers the next 2 days to keep their car lights on, with the windshield wipers in use. 🙂 🙂

              Of course, I’ll forget this and get a ticket.

              1. Thanks for the reminder.

                I always forget. Same with lights
                at dusk and dawn (although I am NEVER up at dawn!)

      2. I’m definitely hoping for more. We need at least 2″ to make the lawns and plants happy for a few days anyways, until the next drought 😉

        1. Hang in there. Pretty decent blob of precip heading
          your way. Watch and hope it does not go poof along
          the way. 😀

  19. Portland, ME has a N wind now.

    We are getting a few breaks of sun.

    No rain ….. Yet. The green layer of pollen on our cars remain. 🙂 🙂

  21. I didn’t realize Logan made it to 88 yesterday. I think we topped out at 86 here.
    We don’t get any of the heat island effect Logan can get sometimes. I dunno.
    We also have many many many trees around with much transpiration causing a slight
    reduction in temperature.

  22. Hmmm that front means business. ONLY 52 at ALBANY as of 11AM.
    52!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

    1. Back to the spring jacket again, along with sneakily shutting the windows when my wife is not looking.

  23. Just a brief shower so far in Wrentham. Much more on the way though, thinking about 2″ for the whole event down here. A big time drought denter, though not the end of it.

  24. As of 11AM front still N&W of Pittsfiled, N of Concord NH.
    So far so good. Keep it up there!!!

  27. Front will be comin’ on down soon through MA. Then the temp fall will pick up steam…

  28. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What do you call precipitation that vaporizes before making it to the Earth’s surface?
    A. Fog
    B. Virga
    C. Cloud droplets
    D. Haze

    Air pressure decreases with altitude.

    A. True
    B. False

    Answers later today.

  30. It has been 14 days since it has rained at my house, we received .01″ of rain. It’s been 18 days since our it has rained .2″ or more.

  33. I wonder if something may “pop” up around or just south of Boston the next hour or 2.

    I dont know how good the instability is, but …..

    The airport in Marshfield is reading 81F, the dewpoints seem to be creeping up over 65F just ahead of this front and the sun is modestly shining through a thin cloud shield.

    Seems like a bit of warmth and humidity has pooled up near and south of Boston. If the lift is there, maybe something goes overhead ?????

    1. Well the eariler runs said it was there until 1 or 2PM.
      So you may be right on target. 12Z NAM should be complete, lets see.

      as of 11AM

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=006&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=003

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=003&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=003&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo

      2PM

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=CAPE&hh2=006&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=003

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=LI&hh2=003&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=006

      But after 2PM it’s GONE!!

  36. At Noon front has passed Manchester, NH and Nashua. About passing through
    Fitchburg, MA and Lawrence, MA. Coming down for sure.

  42. The casino on the wrentham plainville foxboro line is about to open, everyone I’ve talked to can’t wait to check it out, I just want to go to the Doug Flutie Sports Bar, I don’t drink much, still wanna see 🙂

  43. Why is the rain drying out on its approach to the south shore?

    I was not expecting a warm, humid and party sunny day today. If so we would have planned a outdoor activity. We thought we would be inside all day.

    1. The cold front seems slower to arrive and the rains a bit further north than modeled …..

      Makes one wonder if where the models have placed the axis of heaviest rain Monday and Tuesday is going to verify in that general area.

    2. Yup. Radar looks good coming out of eastern CT and RI then poof, dries right up. We’ve had 3 very brief showers and it wasn’t even enough to wet the ground.

    3. The front is within 1 hour of expectation. I figured around 1PM for me, and it’s right on me as of 1:30. Wind just went calm here. Outflow from storms in northeastern MA should push it a little faster soon.

  46. Thanks, TK.

    It is 70 degrees now in Sudbury with cloudy but rather bright skies.

    Where is the front now? I looked at the doppler radar about 15 mins. ago and the heaviest rain is still to the north of us. Parts of the south shore look like they might get some rain soon. Looking to the west, at this point anyway, there isn’t a lot of heavy rain. I am wondering if a lot of us don’t get all the heavy rain that has been advertised. I could be wrong, ‘though.

    My guesses to quiz – B and B.

  48. 73.4 humid. Wind gone. 0.18 rain …just enough to make everything wet but does no good.

  49. Very dark in Sudbury right now. Radar shows a shower, maybe heavy forming near Maynard which isn’t far from here. Maybe more showers will develop as front gets closer.

  50. It’s like soup here. I am about to embark on a painting project and I am sweating
    bullets! No stinken front here yet.

  51. Beverly is down to 58 as front passed there at 1:30PM

    Logan is 73 with dewpoint of 68. YUCK!

    1. Front has passed Springfield. Looks like it is right on Worcester.
      CLOSE by for sure.

  55. Hmmm my thermometer just kicked into Celsius mode when I have it
    set for Fahrenheit. Go figure!!

    1. Cold air is shallow, so plenty of lift just over the front and muggy air to draw on for downpours and some thunder.

  57. Wow – here comes the rain! 🙂

    Slept through the rain last night. Now is the first time I have seen heavy rain in so long! Trees and bushes and lawns are happy.

  58. Big gust of winds. I suspect the front has arrived.
    Temp dropped a tad, but nothing meaningful yet.

    1. Feel cooling breeze coming in the window. Temp has dropped a full degree
      F (yes got it back). It is HERE

  60. Wind just kicked up in Quincy – the breeze feels icy. It’s become quite dark. We were 80 and humid, the thermometer is not dropping as fast as the temperature. It says 72, but I’d guess it’s well into the 60s.

  62. Front passed my location at 1:56PM with an arc of low clouds moving rapidly across the sky from N to S, a wind shift from SW to N with a few gusts around 25-30 MPH, and a very sharp temp drop from 70 to 60, and it’s gone down a little more slowly since…

  63. It go so dark the street lights came on. No rain, however.
    Still windy. Temp down to 68.9 and dropping fast now.

  67. Pretty decent line Developing Worcester to Lowell. Some thunder and lightning
    within.

    1. Yes, we have had some loud claps. Husband said he could “feel” the thunder more than hear it. Still pouring here.

      1. I’m not surpised. Very loud here considering how far away. Also a few very very vivid lightning bolts. Daughter txt’d to say they are driving through. Marlboro and is intense there.

  70. My thermometer has aught up with reality – 61 F here in Quincy. A few fat raindrops too.

    1. That is crazy. We have less Han .05. Parts of Vermont were closing in on 3 inches. Very localized so far.

  78. Mac just got a warning signal on his phone. Flash flood warning. But we can’t figure where he got it from. His phone sounded the typical warning sound. Loudly. Kind of what we were taking about the other day but now have to figure how he set it up

      1. Thanks north. I’m still trying to figure how he has it set up so an alarm actually sounds through his phone. Do you know? We both have govt alerts set to on.

  79. Temp. is 55 degrees in Sudbury now. Rain has let up somewhat – but still thunder off to our east. Wish we had a rain gauge.

    1. Rainshine, the wundergroud station at wayside inn says 1.27 today. I find the wunderground station at garden in the woods is spot on for its measurements/readings. There are others close to me but there readings always are a bit off.

  81. Complex of thunderstorms moving into Fairfield County prompted a flood watch and for parts of Fairfield County a flash flood warning.
    Nice to see sun in the Dallas area watching the golf tournament. Those folks need a spell of dry weather.

  83. Wow!!! Extremely windy here, possible light micro burst if that’s possible, we have a few branches that fell, very dark

    2. The reason why I say microburst is because the trees were getting pushed downward as supposed to swaying

  87. Down to 57.6. Just had to shut all of the windows, except where I am painting.

    BRRR

    NO THUNDER HERE. Rain is WIMPY as well. Big Woof!!
    BUT, it is raining which is a good thing. 😀

  88. Driving to Weymouth up rte 3, encountered the front, accompanied by gusty winds and a line of low, dark clouds.

    Poured in Weymouth, back in Marshfield, still dry, but hopeful for rain soon looking at the radars.

    The streets …….. Covered in pollen, which made it look like it had hailed. It was strange looking.

  90. While painting, rain really picked up. Was poring for 1/2 hour or so. Still raining, but
    lightly now. Radar is still lit up. Expecting MORE. 😀

    donw to 53.6!!! WOW!!! that is COLD!!!!

      1. I wonder where 3 inches fell???

        AT 453 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
        PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER…IT WAS STILL RAINING
        MODERATELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME LOCATION HAVE SEEN 3
        OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY…SO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
        REMAINS POSSIBLE.

  93. It’s been raining here since around 4:30 and now finally coming down decently. This is for sure welcoming. I got the grilling done at just the right time before it picked up. I was walking the dog around 12:30 and it was 81 I believe now it’s in the 50s wow.

  95. We lost another large tree branch today, this time from the city tree. We have two large Norway Maples, one just on our property line, so it’s ours, and one in the tree lawn which is property of the City of Quincy. This one mostly missed everything. The last branch came down from our tree and landed on the roof in the first Nor’easter last October. It was really LOUD.

    This time, the brach came down with no wind. Apparently it was weakened, and the weight of the wet leaves was enough.

    1. I hate to see these limbs damaged. So glad it didn’t land on anyone. Or do damage itself

  96. .41 here so far. We have had heavy downpours but so far have been in between the two heaviest areas.

  97. Will check on rain total so far in a little bit. What I can say is that we did have minor wind damage around this area from quick gusts around 30-35 MPH. What Charlie observed may have indeed been a small scale type of downburst .. not quite the big boys you get with true severe storms, but a mini version from rapidly developing low-top convection.

    The boundary was quite sharp and the air unstable over it, so not much of a trigger was needed. And NO sun was needed. If we had seen sun before this in a more substantial way, a more serious situation would have resulted. What was a perfect set-up was for an hour or two of training of heavy rain in the same area, hence the localized big amounts. Hard to forecast this in advance.

    I will say that once again the HRRR did a very good job today as did the NAM.

    1. I was a bit suprised at the wind, and very low clouds, and darkness, like I said it wasn’t a swaying wind, it was almost smushing the trees downward, very weird, but loved it, it was fun 🙂

  99. 49.7F with 1.63 rain. Amazingly, there is already a difference in the sudbury River. It comes and goes so quickly

        1. We drove here to wellesley around 4:00 and there was huge ponding on the roads. However I would think north of here is jackpot. I know even sudbury had more than we did

  100. 0.97″ of rain for the day so far here in Wrentham-we’ll take it! More tomorrow.

    1. Shows how localized it is today. Right next door in North Attleboro we have had .53 so far.

  101. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What do you call precipitation that vaporizes before making it to the Earth’s surface?
    A. Fog
    B. Virga
    C. Cloud droplets
    D. Haze

    Air pressure decreases with altitude.

    A. True
    B. False

    The answers are B and A.

  102. I’m actually very happy that we have cool temps, it’s very helpful for your lawns, and my lawns

  103. I just read that a family had to be rescued from their car due to rain in sudbury. It was on bent rd. Not far from wayside inn restaurant. Not sure how or why unless there is a river there. Parts of rt 9 framingham were flooded but that happens when a lot of rain falls at once.

  104. Will that rain last through here from the NYC area tk? I think it does, just because of the contrast of the front

    1. It should, but intensity should be diminishing overall as we lose a little bit of instability above our heads.

    2. I am a rank amateur weather watcher. Can I ask where and how you all get your measurements of rain? Thank you

      2. Hi MassBay, I have a wireless sensor outside that I can get the readings inside my house on a digital display. There are some good ones out there that aren’t too expensive. Mine is made by Lacrosse Technology and was about 25-30 dollars. It is very accurate in my experience and I have had it for a while.

  106. Working on one more “The Week Ahead” post before the format adjustment.

    1. Good luck in the medium range TK !

      Yesterday’s model runs had BB thinking 88F next Saturday and now today, 68F for next Saturday.

  107. 1.7. Temp 48 and dP 49.

    MassBay. I have a weather channel system. The anemometer doesn’t work any more and I don’t trust the temp so use an old thermometer I got years ago. But the rain gauge and DP,still seem to work. I also check with the wunderground stations nearby to make sure they are close. I wouldn’t recommend the system I have. Others here can give you better into. But rain gauges are pretty inexpensive. I just had trouble placing mine where it was at the right height and away from the house and trees

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