Wednesday Forecast Update

3:09AM

DAYS 1-5…
A generally zonal pattern will be the rule in the coming days with weather systems moving right along. High pressure slides across New England today providing fair weather with a pleasant, dry air mass. An approaching disturbance sends clouds into the region Thursday as the high slips off to the east. This disturbance won’t produce much in the way of rain and will then be pushed out of here by a cold front bringing a few showers during early Friday. High pressure builds in later Friday through Saturday with more nice weather. The next frontal system will approach on Sunday with a risk of showers/t-storms. The wild card is the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Bill, which came ashore in Texas on Tuesday. At this stage it it uncertain how much moisture will make the trip north and be pulled along by the jet stream and move up ahead of the cold front on Sunday. So for now the forecast will just carry the increased risk for some wet weather at that time and will be fine-tuned as that day approaches.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some high clouds streaming in from the west. Highs 65-70 coastal areas, 70s interior. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Variable high clouds. Lows in the 50s. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with mid level clouds more dominant. Highs in the 60s coast, 70-75 interior. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain. Lows around 60. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered showers morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs in the 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to W with higher gusts midday and afternoon.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-63. Highs 73-80.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-65. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)…
A shot of cooler air to start next week on Monday then a quick warm-up on Tuesday with dry weather. Mid to end portion of the week is expected to be unsettled with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
West to east jet stream in general. Flat ridge of high pressure centered in the US Southeast means that Summer warmth will be nearby, but jet stream overhead holds it at bay and allows cooler air to the north to flirt with the region at times as passing disturbances cause air mass changes to take place. End result is near normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall overall for this period. Have to keep an eye on that ridge in the longer term should it try to build further north than currently expected.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

    1. Not necessarily. In fact I believe the only way it can become one is if the remains of Bill are a direct hit.

  1. I like looking at the forecast this morning and not seeing a 90 on it. So far this June I have not had to run the AC. Last month I ran it four times.

  2. Thank you Tk. Just checking in now. I have the day off and was out fishing this morning. I was inland and it was chilly. Car was reading 67 out in Millis.
    It is 67.8 here now. MUCH cloudiness and it was evident early as about 9AM.

    Still eyeing the Father’s Day forecast. Let’s keep it reasonable as we’re having steaks
    on the grill.

    Thanks again.

  3. Regarding Bill. Saw a report yesterday and din’t have a chance to post about
    the “Brown Ocean Effect” where there was so much moisture out ahead of Bill,
    that the circulation maintained itself for quite awhile inland.

    I actually heard about this in connection with the hurricane of 1938.

    Interesting phenomenon.

  4. The 12z run of today’s GFS, nearly complete, is a bit depressing, in my opinion.

    If that verified, looks like plenty of 70s and some days in the 60s, maybe even a few 50s on the cloudy, showery days with onshore flow for eastern New England.

    Meanwhile, in Alaska, full throttle summer ……..

  5. I could just hear the complaints if that verifies this will be the year without a summer where is the 3 H weather.
    For the summer fans you still got all of July and August for 3 weather and as we saw with this past winter things could change.

    1. I’m good with that. Keep that Crap down South where it belongs.
      A nice Canadian Summer would be good.

    2. IF the weather does “average” out over time ……

      Then, beginning around July 24th and continuing to September 10th, it should be 95F to 100F almost every day.

      This would be in the range of 12F to 15F above normal and would “average” out the 6 weeks back starting in late Jan, all of February and early March.

      Now, that averages out the temperature anomaly ….

      What averages out the 100 inches of snow …… no rain ????? (I wouldn’t want to see that !!!!)

  6. This is my ideal summer weather. No real need for AC. Air is quite breathable, too. I hope we continue on this run of 50s to 70s weather in June. This said, I know some are disappointed and hope for warmer temps.

    As Tom mentioned, Alaska is basking in summer warmth. But, northeastern Canada is still quite cold for this time of year, with snow in the forecast, ice on the waterways, and some upset Inuit walking around wondering “where’s my summer?”. I wonder if they will get any summer at all this year in Nunavut. Normal high is 50F or so. They’re barely reaching 38F most days:

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

    1. I truly don’t mind whatever weather comes …..

      If this particular hemispheric pattern continues, not only will it be interesting to see if that harbor in Kimmirut never goes ice free this summer, but also how far north into the Arctic Ocean ice free water makes it from its current charge through and past the Bering Sea because of that anomalous warm high just sitting there.

      1. Model picking up on that stable air.
        As I said yesterday so far this year I have yet to see a setup for thunderstorms that has excited me and I don’t see it
        for Sunday.

  7. Does anyone know if Sunshine farm in Sherborn (near Framingham) still
    has pick your own strawberries?? I figure Vicki may know this.

    Thanks

  8. Tropical Topics…
    There are many interesting little environmental influences on tropical systems, like noted above about the plentiful moisture feeding the storm so it held a nice circulation going inland. Here’s an interesting occurrence I have posted about before but in case you missed it: Back in the 1990s, do not recall the exact date, a significant tropical cyclone made landfall in western Australia over a very hot desert area, and the cyclone briefly gained intensity from having to transfer some of the heat upward, even though the center was over parched land only briefly wet by tropical rain.

    Closer to home…
    The pattern does not support heat for a while, but heat will not be that far away, so keep in mind it does not take much of a shift to grab some heat and yank it up here for a day or even part of a day. Trust me, we’re not going to be let off easy for the entire summer, in terms of HHH. We’ll have our share. It won’t be a repeat of 1983 or 1988 but we’ll have some hot days.

  9. Serious drought being reported on the Korean peninsula. We know it’s affecting the South. And today we learn from North Korean media that they’re being impacted, too. Highly unusual for the North to ever report anything wrong with anything in the DPRK. But, media there reported severe drought. Some experts suggest they’re saying it because they will be needing relief from the UN. With trade and other sanctions in place and continued saber-rattling, along with a truly deranged dictator killing off his inner circle, getting relief supplies in may be an issue. Drought and mismanagement led to a major famine (hundreds of thousands died) in the 1990s in the DPRK. We could see a repeat of that in 2015.

    1. Abigail Adams and son John Q stood on a hill near their home in braintree watching/listening. John may have been in PA…I forget. She wrote to him about it.

      1. Vicki, it’s was Abigal who went to the top of Penns Hill which is now located in Quincy. The town line is a actually at the top of the hill and there location where she stood was slightly down from the top on the north side. My elementary school is at the base of the hill in braintree. Every year we had a field trip to that location. We simply walked up the hill.

        1. Thanks coastal. I did know it is part of Quincy? I didn’t remember the name of the Hill. I could not remeber the hill. I am pretty sure in her letter to John she said John Q was with her but then my memory is off.

          Can you imagine what it was like to live back then. She was an amazing woman. He, as I have said, is easily my favorite founding father and doesn’t get nearly half the credit he earned

        1. Great link. Thank you. And thanks to the many, many preserved writings of John and Abigail.

  10. New England coastal seabreezes can be refreshing …..

    I have relatives in Wilmington, NC and every once in a while, check in to see what its like down there …..

    Air temp : 83F with a light east wind. Sounds manageable …

    Dewpoint is 77F and I believe it because the nearby ocean temp is 84F.

    This makes for an 8pm heat index of 92F.

    During our visit last summer, I remember a day or two of these dewpoints and coming from that airmass makes walking into an air conditioned 72F room feel like a freezer.

    1. Mac’s parents used to vacate Charleston every summer and they loved the heat. Gotta love New England

  11. 18z GFS has a monster ridge in the west.

    500 mb height is 600 dm !!!! at one point and I see a couple 30C contours for 850 mb temps.

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