Wednesday Forecast Update

99 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (THROUGH SUNDAY)…
With the severe weather threat behind us now, going forward there are no changes to the previous discussion on the upcoming pattern for the remainder of this week, so right to the forecast we go!
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-85, cooler some coastal areas. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60, cooler some interior valleys. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern areas. Lows 55-60. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny AM. Increasing clouds PM. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)…
Shower risk Monday June 29. Dry Tuesday June 30. A couple shower and thunderstorm threats July 1-3 but rain-free most of the time. Temperatures below normal recovering toward normal later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)…
A couple shower and thunderstorm threats with passing fronts but rainfall near to below normal overall. Temperatures near normal overall but still somewhat variable.

99 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK ! Excellent work always, but especially yesterday !!

    Chamber of commerce weather today !!

    This might be my favorite summer weather, 80F to 85F, dewpoints of 55F to 60F, sunny ………. possibly a light, comfortable coastal seabreeze ……

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, this is also my favorite summer weather. When does school end for you? I’m sorry if I missed your answer yesterday.

    Day’s end from my house. We had a thunderstorm earlier in the day, missed the main event, but ended with a beautiful sunset. I didn’t touch this up but figure I must have moved the phone to cause the slightly blurred area.

    https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/11219079_481164095381817_7804797062700694646_n.jpg?oh=0d734f8bc9971856666a4f5842fb71b4&oe=562D33FD

    1. Tomorrow at 11am.

      Today is make up day #6 out of 7 snow days.

      I keep jokingly saying its been snowing again since last Wednesday because Tuesday 6/16 could have been our 180th day.

      Wed, Thurs and Fri were all make-ups from the 1st blizzard that got the craziness rolling.

      Monday and yesterday were make-ups from the 2nd big snowstorm the day after the Super Bowl.

      Today and tomorrow are the make-ups from the 3rd big snowstorm, the one where Cantore was going nuts in Plymouth from all the thunder-snow.

      I am so hopeful this El-Nino gives us a mild and dry winter with NO snow days next year !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Of course, that will probably happen, but will lose 2 or 3 days in September due to power issues from a tropical system …… of course …… 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Long, long school year Tom. Framingham is out Friday. They return to school two months to the day after Friday. I sure hope you have great summer weather to enjoy.

    2. A fish or helicopter where? I have trouble seeing such things. It’s the way I am wired. Please clue me in and then I’ll give an opinion. Tx

      1. The very top area on the left that looks as if it has an open mouth facing west but then it upswings on the right and looks a bit like the tail of a helicopter to me.

        1. See, now that you pointed me in the right direction, I can see.

          Either way it’s missing something.
          For a fish, no fins. For a helicopter, no blades.
          Given that, I would opt for the fish. 😀

          1. I was going with fish too. I’m laughing because I know I am literal but I think you are even more literal than I 🙂

  4. Thanks, TK – and thanks for yesterday!

    What a day yesterday! We got a brief thunderstorm yesterday morning but missed the rest w/the exception of hearing a little thunder at some point. And the sky last evening was beautiful but weird – orange to the west and to the east. I am glad everyone is safe and I admit there were times I was nervous about that storm in RI, CT and then into MA. That hook echo really looked ominous – we were lucky it stayed up in the clouds. And thanks to all on the blog who gave out great info. and some fantastic pictures.

    At one point my husband said, “Don’t you miss last winter now?” I said nope. I love all the seasons – each one has its beauty and its fury. That’s what makes New England so special.

  6. Question. I had wondered yesterday if the storms going through this area and to the north would diminish the impact of pm storms. The areas that did get am storms, never did end up with anything pm although they were predicted to have. One caveat is that on Monday it was also predicted that the worst would be around the Boston/Providence corridor and that in fact was where it was worse. So perhaps it was going to be regardless of the am storms.

    Just curious to hear thoughts.

    1. Its a good question ……

      It did warm up again at the surface everywhere, including those areas.

      I didn’t get to see any soundings from the areas to the north hit by the first round, so, perhaps something happened within the column that would make it obvious as to why that area did not get hit again.

      1. Someone mentioned that there was considerable CIN (ie a cap)
        to the North. I don’t know if that was the case or not.
        I saw it on some maps, but never mentioned it.

        Than “may” explain it.

        Looks like there were 3 main storms, 4 if one chooses to
        call the one on the Cape last night a bad storm.

        We had the North Shore one in the AM, the one in CT for which
        Mark Posted Photos, and the One that came out of NW RI
        and sent WxWatcher to his basement.

        Did I miss one?

        1. I think you covered it. There was the threat of the one from the NW with a warning box attached for a bit but it poofed as the day got long. BTW – good job to those who predicted it would travel and end in Boston. The infinitesimal little bit of it that remained sure appeared to have done just that.

          Thank you, Tom and OS, for your comments. I enjoy the followup reviews almost (stress on almost) as I do the lead up discussion.

  8. Good morning, all:

    I don’t want to rub it in, Tom, but I am a teacher, too, and I am reading this on my deck on this beautiful summer morning with a coffee in my hands. Our district started this past school year on August 25 with the teachers coming in for two days before the kids arrived on August 27. The kids’ last day was last Friday. We also had five snow days. The Massachusetts DESE will not waive the 180-requirement for anything; not even the worst winter in New England history.
    Nobody wants to make up days at the end of the year, cut into vacations, Saturday mornings, Yom Kippur, Good Friday, etc. To get the 180 days, you need to start early. Districts might have to get creative with alternative ways to make up snow/weather days. I think New Hampshire schools have what they call “Blizzard Bags” with work the students take home in anticipation of a snow day. I know of one class that used Google Hangout so the teacher could teach her students from home.

    Next school year’s last day will automatically be later because Labor Day this September is the latest it can possibly be (September 7). It was September 1 in 2014.

    Hang in there, Tom. There’s a chaise lounge with an umbrella drink at the beach with your name on it just waiting for you!!!!

    Enjoy this beautiful day, everyone!

    1. Framingham started August 27 last year also and is out this Friday as I said to Tom. I’m trying to figure out where the difference is. Framingham had 7 and June 17 should have been day 180. And the 180 day requirement is a joke IMHO. My grandson hasn’t done a thing in school for over a week.

      However, I am picturing you sitting on your deck with coffee and more than envious !!

    2. Sounds good !

      Hope you had a great year !!

      We start pre-Labor day again next year and have in the past many years. I love to do that !! It sneaks 3 school days in (Tues, Wed and Thurs w/ teacher orientation on Monday) that really helps in June. ……. We just didn’t start pre-Labor day this particular school year, because it was the 1st of September. Oh well …..

      Have a great summer !!

  9. Not sure where the difference is either, Vicki. The 180 days are STUDENT days where the district is open for classes with kids. If Framingham had a lot of full-day teacher professional days, that can extend the school year. Also, some districts may give extra days before or after the Christmas/Holiday break in December/January. That adds a few as well. I give final exams at the end of the year. My students work right up to the end!!!

    1. Hello,

      My Daughter teaches Spanish and Latin at Medfield High School.
      Tom teaches Math in Marshfield, so I am curious as to what your expertise is?
      and where you teach?

      Many thanks

    2. I don’t think Framingham has any full professional days. I think they just cannot count 😉 Does your district celebrate the Jewish holidays?

      1. I’d be like the Genie on the Geiko Ad. You know the Million Bucks.

        Hey, you asked for a million bucks and that’s what I gave you. 😀

  11. OS…I am also a Spanish teacher. I teach at Middleborough High. Go Sachems!! The Division 2 state baseball champions!

      1. No, I don’t speak Spanish and I don’t teach. I’d be a horrible teacher. I would not tolerate anyone who didn’t get it.
        I’d go nuts.

        I did, however, have 3 years of Spanish in school and can get
        by in a pinch.

        We attended our nieces Wedding in Tulum Mexico several years ago. I was actually able to communicate, although it was rough.

        Funny story: We rented a car from perhaps not the most reputable firm. The car had no gas, so the first thing I had
        to do we pull into a gas station and fill up. Of course gas is sold by the liter in pesos. I had a good idea of the current conversion rate. I figured the gas only came to about $20. I handed the
        attendant a $50 bill and he proceeded to give me $10 in change.
        I shook my head and stuck my hand out for more. He gave me another $10. I said no and stuck my had out until he gave me
        the final $10 in change.

        Best to know some of the language wherever one heads.

    1. Is that where it ended up? Dang it I have such a hard time keeping him from slipping out of his collar. 😛

  13. The last day for Boston Public Schools is Monday June 29. IIRC the last day was originally scheduled for last Friday June 19. I wonder if Boston actually missed more days than the suburbs?? If so, very rare I suspect.

    Here in Boston, I never heard not one clap of thunder…just a few brief showers. We lucked out for sure. 🙂

    1. Yup, I didn’t hear any thunder either.
      And other than a brief shower in the morning, Nothing.

      Spectacular Sunset, however. 😀

    1. Yep, NWS confirmed it. Went right through the town common, about a mile from my house. Yikes!

  15. What was the strength of that tornado?
    They confirmed the thunderstorm complex in southern CT which Mark posted pictures of was a microburst and not a tornado.
    Impressive complex of storms that maintained intensity tracking across southern parts of CT.

    1. EF0 with 80mph winds. The microburst was stronger, I heard 90-95mph winds. Much more significant than the tornado really.

  16. It was 90-95 mph winds. You could tell from the picutres the way trees were blown down straight that it was a microburst and not a tornado. These microbursts sometimes could cause more damage than a weak tornado.

  17. Thanks for the Tornado info. I am NOT surprised at all based on that Hook Echo.
    I’m surprised that it wasn’t a little stronger than that, not that I am/was wishing
    that on anyone. Just based on the radar returns, I thought it might be stronger is all.

    Does anyone have a link?

    Thanks

      1. You gotta love FOX….note the name of the city in the link….sorry, I couldn’t help myself. I tried. I really really tried, but am laughing too loudly.

        Ok now that I am somewhat under control. The article itself had great info. I didn’t know the last tornado in Wrentham was 2004. And I am sorry to read that it damaged a cemetery. Hopefully, not too much and not that any damage is good.

        Thank you Sue

        1. LOL…I knew you would be thrilled to see the source. I did notice the name in the link and also thought it to be typical. 🙂 I was also surprised to read that the last one was in 2004. But…was that one in Wrentham or Waltham. 🙂

          1. Sue, I’m glad you asked the last question. I thought I’d gone far enough 🙂 I don’t recall a tornado ever in Waltham so suspect it was Wrentham but then…

  19. The models continue to trend west with the Sunday low pressure area.

    Any further west and we might warm sector and be bringing the chances for convection in eastern New England.

  20. I saw someone’s cell phone video of the Wrentham Storm and it looked very much like a weak tornado on the ground to me.

          1. Oh. I think I saw that as well.

            I checked Youtube to see if the person posted it
            there. It wasn’t.

            Oh well.

  21. GFS wants to put us back into the Winter 2015 pattern for the first half of July. 😛

    1. Which would mean what for the Summer time?

      Cold Canadian high pressure? East coast RAIN storms?

      Or God forbid, SNOW!(@(#&*(!&@#&!()#(*!()@*# 😆 😆 :mrgreen:

    1. Yes, I didn’t see much of that on there. FANTASTIC!!!

      Mrs. OS is loving it! May it stay that way!

    2. I agree not the 3 H’s, but I wonder if there could be some very muggy, oppressive days humidity wise in there …… The 74F, dew point of 73F with a S wind, rounds of showers, etc …..

      1. I’m not sure I’ve seen with my own eyes a smaller area of damage from a tornado, I actually walked the area in 10 min today, it looks more like light straight line winds, like one person I talked too, this will give a reason for a memorial of the tornado of 2015 lol, glad no one got hurt, good day folks

        1. Charlie, it was a confirmed EF0. The bottom of the tornado scale. Sorry it wasn’t a Texas Monster. :mrgreen:

      1. I agree also. All of the kids in my boys’ school walked to the beach today and spent the day there. Not a bad way to spend the second to last day of school. I am sure the staff loved it.

  25. Absolutely ideal summer day.

    May I ask what the thoughts are for Saturday. Daughter wants to have sons bday party but it involves bounce house rental so,cannot rain. Thank you.

  27. 18z GFS continues to trend towards a stronger and further west cut-off 500 mb feature, which in turn drags the Sunday surface low further west.

    I wonder if this trend continues …….

      1. I’m not sure …..

        I think 48 hrs ago, this Sunday system was tracking SE of New England and now, it may track over southern New England.

        I guess if the trend continues, perhaps it could track far enough west to eventually bring some mild, muggy air into eastern New
        England.

        Perhaps also, puts the heaviest rains further west.

        Could be a big difference btwn 60F with an east or northeast wind and steady rain ….. vs. a quick shot of rain evolving to some showers, temps and dewpoints jumping towards 70F and the wind coming around from east to south or southwesterly.

  29. Small pocket of a little instablity Sunday on the 18z GFS run north shore only.
    18z GFS aggressive with instability for Tuesday. Way too early to post links for that and I don’t buy that solution at this time.

  30. Today was awesome at work. There was a cookout and out of no where this large frame came over to our table and just sat down next to me and coworkers of mine. He asked what we were talking about, it was kind of ironic that we were all talking about sports, He then asked if we were pats fans and i said yes he said good, took out his hand and said im Rob Gronkowski, what sucked is that i did not have my phone on me at the time. 🙁

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