Friday Forecast Update

90 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)…
Disturbance passing by this morning brings some showers. A break with high pressure moving in tonight into Saturday then low pressure quickly advances northeastward across southeastern New England Saturday night and Sunday with a bout of wet weather. Some improvement for the last 2 days of the month Monday and Tuesday though by late Tuesday a cold front may bring the threat of a shower or thunderstorm.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with scattered showers. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-60. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-75, 60s some coastal areas. Wind light N shifting to E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Lows 58-65.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 70-75.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm late. Highs 75-80, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)…
Low pressure trough over the Northeast slowly retrogrades to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as a broad area of high pressure builds in the western Atlantic. This pattern means that temperatures will end up closer to seasonal averages. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely occur with passing disturbances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)…
Mean trough hangs back in the Midwest and occasionally Great Lakes with high pressure off the East Coast. Temperatures near to above normal and rainfall near to below normal under this set-up, though any rain that does occur can be in the form of heavy showers and thunderstorms in some locations.

90 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

    1. Hi Arod….I had to peak out the window to make sure there weren’t a few flakes falling πŸ™‚

    1. I like. Thank you for sharing.
      Never heard this term before. It is called a murmuration

      Really interesting.

      1. I’ve seen instances where there will be dozens of birds sitting on a telephone wire at the beach and all at once take off, stick together, change direction as one. But never anything to this degree. Nature is absolutely amazing, and there is so much we do not know or understand.

  5. Good morning and many thanks TK. You know, I am really enjoying these DAILY
    forecasts and a new blog each morning. I don’t know how you do it, but rest assured
    we are all very grateful and appreciative.

    For Sunday you said: SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 70-75.

    Interesting that Barry last night said 60 for Sunday. I think Barry is firmly a Euro guy and he’s taking it to the bank. Obviously, you have a different opinion, which makes me think you feel the GFS is performing well now and you’re going with that.

    Whatever it is, I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning. Many thanks

    PS You have been on fire as Hadi says, so I’d believe you over Barry!

    1. I don’t get it, the Euro looks much like the GFS.
      Perhaps he was going with yesterday’s 12Z Euro, as the 0z would not
      have been available??? I dunno

    2. It will make a big difference initially, I think, on the exact track of the secondary. If your S and E of that track, probably the 70 – 75F gets attained. If your N and W, probably much cooler.

      But because its late June, once the whole feature lifts through and most areas dry slot, even the “cool” side may moderate towards 70F with breaks of sun.

      I am kind of interested to see how this plays out with a cold season type cyclone in a warm season atmosphere. Add to that the warmer than normal ocean temps southeast of New England. GFS and EURO drop the pressure under 1,000 mb and both show some wind potential near the coast. I keep thinking about an October storm last fall that turned out stronger (more rain and wind) than anticipated ……..

      1. Many thanks for your thoughts Finally out of school Tom

        Will be following 12Z model out put on this. I’d actually rather be warm sectored by this event than have a dismal NE wind
        and 60 Degrees on June 28th!

        If warm sectored, then that presents the possibility of
        convection which would be far more interesting than
        a miserable rain with NE winds.

        We shall see.

        1. Yes, out of school πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

          I check my email for about a week in case parents have any questions, then take the month of July off and then usually by the first week in August, I start to get myself mentally back into the curriculum and prep for the year.

          I’d like to warm sector on Sunday as well. Probably like the cold season, Boston will be right on that line of going either way.

          I just hope we dont overacheive on wind. If I remember correctly, there was something in the Taunton discussion this morning saying that the fully foliated trees have about a 35 mph wind threshold before problems begin to arise.

          2. 35 mph? Seems awfully low to me.
            35 Mph is certainly a nice fresh wind, but seriously what’s it going to do to trees? Gimmie a break.

            We shall see.

    1. Another great find, OS. But ask youself…is he just trying to place logic against what he feels is illogical….UFO πŸ˜‰

        1. So you went to UFO?
          There was an excellent explanation there.

          I have done much research into the UFO phenomenon.
          I was really into it for a period of time. What I finally determined was that the overwhelming majority of
          sightings and other reports are easily explained or are
          outright hoaxes. Many authors simply cashed in on the interest and literally made up entire books on the subject. Incredible! However, I still must say, there still remains a very very few reports that are intriguing and have no real explanation that makes one wonder.

          Also, I don’t trust our government and I wonder
          what is really known, IF anything at all.

          1. No – I went there as a joke…had a wink at the end and then a disclaimer that I was kidding.

            As far as UFO’s my first thought was this actually is a good explanation to what folks think they see. I also have read a good amount on UFOs. I agree with you with regard to most being explained but have serious doubts about the government as well. And I firmly believe that we are not the only life in the universe.

              1. Funny Story and I don’t mean
                to get Religious or anything….

                Years ago my wife and I and some other friends and a neighborhood priest frined were having a discussion about possible life in the universe besides good ole Earth. And this is TRUE.

                The priest told us that it was NOT possible, because it would meant that Jesus would have had to visit any and all other worlds out there.

                You might guess where I stand on this issue. In any case, interesting that the line of thinking is out there.

                1. OMG. I was just surfing through comments and saw this. Please tell the priest friend that he needs to realize how much he doesn’t know. The older I get the more my answer is ” I do not know!”

                2. Just saw this also. I’d agree with MassBay but the older I get the more I don’t know that I know πŸ˜‰

    1. Yup.

      Dont know if you saw it, but on TK’s previous blog (Thursday update), he posted a you tube video yesterday evening of the EF-0 tornado near Wachusett Mtn. I guess it was his friend’s communication to the weather service that had them look at this, which led to them declaring this a 2nd tornado.

      2. Thank you, thank you!
        Just viewed the video.

        Awesomely IMPRESSIVE, even if a weak tornado.
        That clearly caught the action. No denying that one!

    1. It has been pretty decent. It absolutely NAILED the Revere Tornado last
      year. Not sure how it did with the Springfield tornado. Not sure I was into
      the SREF at that time. Sure am now.

      I use it and look at the Significant Tornado Ingredients first, then the Significant Tornado Parameter. Then after that I take a look at the helicity and bulk shear. Then I finally look at Cape and Lifted Index.

      For some reason, wherever it has a the hashed grid for an area, it seems
      like there is always action somewhere within that grid.

  9. 6z GFS showing some instability over NYC area southern CT for Sunday.
    For Tuesday the GFS for a few runs now is to been showing some pretty good instability.
    This is for 18z on Tuesday and shows the best instability west. Meteocentre skips over 21z and goes to 0z. I am thinking we could project some that instability from 18z will advance further east during 21z time frame.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=108&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  10. The 0z run of the GFS was more a little more aggressive for the western sections than 6z run. It has the feel and still plenty of time for this to change of a line of storms forming and weakening as they move through SNE.

  11. A little story to share…

    Yesterday afternoon I was doing mowing etc. In case you don’t know, I live in the second floor apartment of a large 2 family house, above my elderly parents. As I was finishing up, my mother appears at the back door and says “I have to get that umbrella up on that table. The season is almost over!” My reply: “Mom! It’s June 25! Summer is on its 5th day…….is your name Charlie?”

    Amusing thing is she got the joke. πŸ˜›

    1. No, Charlie’s hooking up the plows and making sure there’s enough sand and salt in the trucks.

    1. interesting week, no doubt. America’s a curious social experiment. This has been said many time before, so nothing new in my saying it. But, here’s why I believe America’s unique: It’s generally a conservative, religious country that nevertheless conforms to the liberal ideals of the Enlightenment. Here, “liberal” should not be translated into its modern-day usage. Instead, it’s the (European) Continental translation of liberal – which I personally much prefer. A European liberal is libertarian in some respects (especially when it comes to personal issues), American liberal in others (government intervention on behalf of the weak and vulnerable), and tolerant overall. The latter means that even if one doesn’t agree with a particular position, lifestyle, government program, one can accept them and move on.

    2. Was out to lunch and listened to several tables of younger generation folks celebrating today. The younger generation gives me hope.

      Meanwhile, we enjoyed lunch on the patio at Wayside Inn and I thought yesterday was spectacular………today I believe tops it if possible.

        1. We had it pretty much to ourselves. And there was a group of folks who had model Fords all dating back to the beginning of 1900s who had just stopped in too. Was a blast

    1. Indeed. Most of the summer has had a late summer/early fall feel to it. We’ll see what the rest of the summer brings. Triple H for an extended period of time is very much a possibility, but doesn’t look likely in the short-term.

      1. No Significant tornado ingredients on the most recent
        run either, although helicity is way up there.

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif

        The reason there is no Significant tornado ingredients to go with the pretty impressive helicity is the fact the the SREF utilizes a nice chunk of NAM
        data and therefore has ZERO CAPE in our area for Sunday.
        IF we had CAPE, the SREF would clearly dedect a tornado threat.

        So we shall see what happens with future runs.

  16. 12z NAM on the other hand has no CAPE in Boston and has the CAPE in CT although far less CAPE than the GFS is showing for Boston area.
    12z GFS still showing a good amount of instablity for western areas on Tuesday.

  17. Two days next week so far watching thunderstorm POTENTIAL Sunday and then Tuesday although Tuesday looks one of those CT River Valley West situations.

    1. Nights like these make it hard for pool water to get warm (at least for folk who can’t afford heaters πŸ˜› )

  22. Who Was it here that knows about Fisher Cats?

    On the way to my daughters on Father Day, I was on the back road between Framingham and ashland and saw and animal run across the street and jump/crawl
    up a stone wall. When I got the my daughters my SIL told me it was a Fisher Cat.
    I didn’t think so, until I googled it. Sure as hell was. I saw a Fisher Cat. Cool. πŸ˜€

    1. I’ve seen fishers – there was one in my yard about a year or two ago. They’re low to the ground, a little bigger than housecats, have a dark brown, almost black coat and long, bushy tail.

      1. Did you have more than one? Did your cats react? I seem to recall you mentioning it then. They fascinate me.

    2. Wow cool OS. My daughter has one in her neighborhood. I’ve seen them in Holliston at barn we kept horses. It was right on Hopkinton border. Kids at barn got ducks and a fisher got into pen area. Lots of folks think they cry like a woman screaming. We thought we had one years ago for that reason. I did some research and found they do not cry or scream. That’s a fox. Fishers are kinda scary looking.

    3. We often have them in our yard. The cry is like a human baby in pain – pretty frightening. The first time I heard it, I went out into the back yard with a flashlight. When I saw the reflecting eyes glowing at me, I decided to leave it alone!

      1. I would have gone back inside too. You were brave to even go out. Did you see the animal? I did a lot of research on the cry and there are tons of videos on YouTube with the cry but you never see the animal. Roger Powell is an expert on fishers and raised some in captivity and said he never heard a cry. But We thought what we heard was a fisher because of the eerie cry. That summer at Humarock we heard the same cry. Went out on the deck and it was a small fox and it was definitely the cry we had heard at home.
        http://scientistatwork.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/the-silence-of-the-fishers/?_r=0

          1. Very interesting.

            So do they scream or not?

            Seems not.

            The one I saw was quiet, so I cannot contribute to the debate, sorry to say.

          2. Seems not also but am curious to know of Stephen saw more than just shiny eyes and saw it scream. It might answer the question.

  26. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What is the record snowfall for this date in Boston in 2002?
    A. 0
    B. Trace
    C. C. 0.5”
    D. 1.0”

    What is the name of the instrument that measures the strength of an earthquake? (No one should get this wrong.)
    A. Seismograph
    B. Barometer
    C. Phonograph
    D. Paragraph

    Answers later today.

    2. Paragraph? Really? couldn’t they come up with something a little better
      than that for a choice? Who makes these up? terrible.

    1. Take your time and enjoy Saturday TK. And thanks for the daily updates. Lots of work for you, that’s for sure

  28. I have a slight concern for the wind potential in SE and extreme coastal MA tomorrow morning and it centers around …… if convective type precip might help bring some of the low level jet winds down to the surface …..

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