Saturday Forecast Update

142 Comments

11:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Low pressure approaches New England from the southwest today, redevelops near Long Island tonight then moves right over southeastern New England on Sunday, in some ways looking a little like a Winter storm in early Summer. This system will bring a bout of drought-denting but not drought-breaking rain, and some significant wind. It’s out of here by early in the week with quieter weather for the last couple days of June, however a warm front approaching later Tuesday may send clouds and a few showers into the region, and a cold front later Wednesday may set off a shower or thunderstorm as we get a taste of warm and humid weather to open the month of July.
THIS AFTERNOON: Increasing and thickening overcast. Highs 70-75 but cooling into the 60s at the coast. Wind light SE to E.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Slight chance of light rain mainly west and northwest of Boston before midnight. Moderate to heavy rain and possible embedded thunderstorms arriving southwest to northeast overnight. Lows 60-65. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH, gusting 30 MPH or greater along the coast toward dawn.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, heavy in some areas, and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning. Mainly cloudy with areas of drizzle and showers northern MA and southern NH and a few showers but also breaks of sun possible southern MA through RI in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind E 15-25 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH interior and 35-45 MPH coast for a brief time in the morning, becoming variable over southeastern MA then shifting to N and diminishing to 5-15 MPH in all areas by the end of the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A lingering shower mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Patchy fog. Lows 55-60. Wind light N shifting to W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Chance of showers evening. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)…
Heading through the holiday weekend, except dry and pleasant weather Thursday July 2, a shower risk at some point on Friday July 3, and rain-free most of the time July 4-6 but cannot rule out passing showers or thunderstorms at a few points during that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)…
Looking for near to below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures, as previously discussed.

142 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. Reposting Longshot’s quizzes post from earlier…

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What is the record snowfall for this date in Boston in 2002?
    A. 0
    B. Trace
    C. C. 0.5”
    D. 1.0”

    What is the name of the instrument that measures the strength of an earthquake? (No one should get this wrong.)
    A. Seismograph
    B. Barometer
    C. Phonograph
    D. Paragraph

    Answers later today.

    ______________

    Tom and Vicki have guessed B & A.
    Old Salty has guessed A, A, A, A, A, and A. 😉

    1. If I read that right they stated this El Nino event is similar to the 1998 event. I hope I read that incorrectly because it’s completely false if that’s what they said. Not even close in magnitude at this point.

  4. Thanks tk looking like lots of rain coming,,

    Side note and I find amazing but it’s true, Nashville has passed boston in population at 715,000 as of 2015 and is now the 21st largest city in America, Nashville 30 yrs ago only had 340,000, never thought that would have happened. A ton of new restaurants, and one person told me Nashville has more visitors than Boston now, I don’t think so, but I haven’t investigated 🙂

      1. Nashville/Boston, Boston/Nashville, Nashville/Boston, Boston/Nashville…..

        Let me see….ahhh Ummm
        Seriously?????

        BOSTON!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it’s a no Brainer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  5. 12Z GFS rain for Tomorrow

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=precip_ptot&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150627+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    12Z NAM

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150627+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

  6. Mesoscale Discussion for VA & part of MD re: Possible Tornado watch (80% chance of issuance)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1209.html

    This is the area that “could” have gotten us IF the storm warm sectored us as
    there is very SIGNIFCANT helicity associated with this system.

    Looks like that will NOT be a concern for our area.

        1. Looks rain is just about to Hartford. Cromwell is South of
          HArtford, so I’d say the rain is there already.

          1. It’s there all right. Just put live coverage on
            and I can see the rain pelting down into the
            water. it is light bordering on heavier than that.

  9. Trivia quiz: B & A

    I will assume any “snowfall” recorded this time of year will be falling as HAIL.

    1. Ah Hah. I did NOT consider that. Therfore I now know I messed it up.

      Hint: High temperature that date was 91 degrees and there WAS a thunderstorm with HAIL.

      FWIW, I totally disagree with counting hail as snow. TOTALLY different
      Animal. It is WRONG in my opinion, therefore my answer is CORRECT!
      I RULE IT correct, therefore it MUST BE SO!!!! 😆 😆 😆

      Seriously, it should bot be counted.

      1. I figured “zero” would be too obivious (easy). Maybe you are right and the rest of us are overthinking it. 😉

  10. Based on TK’s forecast above for Sunday afternoon, it appears that Boston will as usual be on the fence between the cool/damp air to the north and warm/muggy air to the south.

    Will the Summer of 2015 be remembered for its rainy Sundays?? 🙁

  11. If this was 6 months from now, this system would probably be a typical coastal hugger with heavy interior snow and mostly heavy rain elsewhere.

  12. I think the rain and especially the wind will underperform tomorrow. In particular, eastern areas won’t see as much rain as areas farther north/west. Just basing that off some radar observations and a few things I see in the short range guidance. 1-2″ for most, but generally on the lower end. 1.25″ of rain for Boston, give or take. A nice drink for the lawns, but we’re still in a pattern that will favor drought, particularly after the middle of this week as TK has alluded to in his forecasts. We’ve done a good job fending it off this month though, most places should come in above normal for the month on precip after this.

  14. Hmmmm hadn’t read this before from NWS. There is “some” concern
    of severe weather. Risk is low, but not non-zero. Although they didn’t say it,
    it would be somewhat reminiscent of the conditions for the Revere Tornado
    last year.

    SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
    SUNDAY MORNING . THIS PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OTHER
    TROPICAL-LIKE PATTERNS THAT HAVE YIELDED QUICK SPIN-UP OR
    LOCALIZED SVR WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
    IS IF THE WARM SECTOR /TRIPLE POINT WILL GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
    ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM
    WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SW WINDS ALOFT…COULD
    YIELD 50-60 KTS OF SHEAR. ANTICIPATE LOW LCL DUE TO THE HIGH
    DEWPOINTS. SO THE MOISTURE..SHEAR AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
    MOVE THROUGH…BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE INSTABILITY FACTOR. GFS IS
    THE ONLY PIECE OF GUIDANCE SHOWING DESCENT MUCAPE…WHICH IS A
    FLAG. HOWEVER IS DEWPOINTS INCREASE…OR IF CLDS BREAK OUT ENOUGH
    THIS WE COULD GET MORE INSTABILITY THEN GUIDANCE SUGGEST. THIS
    WILL NEED TO BE WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    1. Not really . I’ve been saying for sometime to deal Milan . He’s gone down and is horid in the playoffs when needed most. I think if we sit back and trust things may be looking up for the bruins. I like how Claude is staying. They have made the playoffs every year but one with him as the coach. Get rid of the big money guys who haven’t really contributed the way they should to the club and free up some cap space . Send a message play or you’re gone and I’ll even go as far as saying the coach needs to adapt to a different type of attack coaching.

      1. The Milan deal was fine. No problem. The rest of the Crap
        is DISGUSTING!()@#(*!@#)(!*@#(*!@#)*!)#@

        He’s not better than Shitreli!@#*()!*@#()*!()@*#(*!(@#*(!@*

        BRUINS GO DOWN IN A PILE OF DOGGIE POOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(@(#*()!*@()#&!*()@&#*&!@*(#&*(!&@#*&!*(@#&*(!&*(@#&(!*@#&*!^@#^!&^@#&*!@#^&*^!&@#^!&*@#^*!&@%#^%!^@#%@%!^%@#&!%@#&^!%@#%!^@%#!%#@^!%&@#%!%@#^%!@#^%^@#%!@#^%!@#!@#%!^%@^#%!^@%#^!%@#^!%@#%^!@%#^!^@#%^!%@#^%!@#%!&%@#^!@#%^!%@#&!%&@#%!&^@%#!^%@#&^!@%#^!%@#&!%@#%!&#%^!

        1. I won’t go there with Claude . I can tell you there is not a team on either side of the division that would not want him as his record speaks volumes old salty. But we can agree to disagree. Hope all is well with you.

          1. He’s a DORK and a terrible coach. I hated him
            even when they won the cup. They won in spite of him. FIRE HIS ASS!!!!!

          2. One more thing don’t be surprised to see chara go if not this year defently next season .

            1. Ok one more thing. Watch Milan have a stellar season with the kings just as Joe Thorton did when traded west.

  19. Thanks OS for posting watches. Sudbury river is on higher side so will see if any of its offshoots flood. Am thinking it isn’t high enough and this doesn’t apply to larger rivers

    1. Don’t know about Sudbury, But Charles is low enough to handle this imho.
      We shall see. Hope there is no flooding.

      heading out for early dinner and cards with friends.

  20. As far as populations are concerned (ie: Nashville vs Boston) according to a couple of sources (including Wikipedia) Nashville as of 2013 has a slight edge (by about 3,000). Nashville saw a massive jump in population in the 1960s (I think there may have also been some consolidation of some surrounding towns into the city itself). Since then growth has been steady. The population of Boston was on the decline through the 50s into 1980 (when the population bottomed out at 560K). Since then Boston has had a steady rise.

    Where Boston comes out on top is in the it’s Metro area stats. Nashville’s metro area has a population of 1.7 million while Boston’s is at 4.6 million!!!

      1. Didn’t check that out…just talking about population from my end. Feel free to do some research 🙂

        1. Just did a quick check on Wikipedia (not always accurate btw) and there are roughly 20-24 colleges, universities, etc within 40 miles of Nashville with an enrollment of roughly 87,000. On Tennessee State and Vanderbilt stand out in my mind.

          Boston on the other hand has over 55 schools (just within the 495 area..never mind Worcester and Providence…which are close to 40 miles away–see the same above in Nashville). Total enrollment is over 235,000!!!

          Throw in the Worcester and Providence areas and I’m sure you are up over 70 schools and 300,000 students.

      2. Most of the info is in the comparison linke I posted. It does not give number of colleges but percent of education level. Nashville also has a lower income level as a whole.

    2. Good info, Keith. I found sources that gave differing populations but not whati considered totally reliable. I was more interested in lifestyle.

      1. I think…without even doing any more research…that the lifestyle in Boston is far better than Nashville (unless of course you are from Nashville). I was just trying to clarify the population numbers and you are right there are a lot of numbers out there.

        1. The lifestyle, according to what I read, has more to offer in Boston. And your college statistics would be why the younger generations in Nash are young professionals. In Boston, there is an equal number of young professionals but also a large number of college age youth.

          Interesting topic.

  21. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What is the record snowfall for this date in Boston in 2002?
    A. 0
    B. Trace
    C. C. 0.5”
    D. 1.0”

    What is the name of the instrument that measures the strength of an earthquake?
    A. Seismograph
    B. Barometer
    C. Phonograph
    D. Paragraph

    The answers are B & A.

    1. And according to discussion some who got the correct answer uses logic. One just guessed. Thank you as always Longshot 🙂

  22. I have a follow-up to the fisher cat discussion on the last update. This is very interesting. When I heard the screaming and saw the eyes reflecting my light, I did not see the body of the animal. My wife has seen fisher cats in our yard. But, they did not make any noise when she saw them.

    So, well, now I really don’t know! Maybe they only wail when no one is looking!

    1. Hi Stephen. I find it fascinating also. We had neighbors who saw rhe fisher when we were hearing the screams. But we’d also all seen the fox in residence. I came to conclusion that the scream from here was the fox. And it is bone chilling. I’m glad you responded. Thank you!

  23. Advisories and Watches.

    Flood Watch: 2 AM — 2 PM
    Wind Advisory: 3 AM — 12 Noon
    High Surf Advisory: 8 AM — 8 PM

  24. Just took a screen shot of the radar I use. No kidding. There is a literal circle around the Charlie hole. I put on Fb, but I can’t get it from FB using my iPad sadly.

  26. Was down the Cape today (Mashpee area) and I was stunned to see how badly the foliage has been damaged by the green worms and now furry caterpillars. In some cases, trees entirely stripped of all foliage. Looks like early spring down there.

    1. Oh dear. We have stripped trees but I’m not sure enough to notice from a distance. Folliage will be questionable. Next year we will spray. I understand the spray is organic. Mrs North gave me a company name but it wss too late this year. 🙁

      Hope you had fun today, Ace

  27. The rain down in NJ, edging up to NYC is torrential and adding up very quickly.

    I wonder if it maintains that intensity and specifically, where its headed for.

  30. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The planet Venus is covered in clouds made of what gas?

    A. Water vapor
    B. Oxygen
    C. Carbon dioxide
    D. Hydrogen

    Answer later today.

  31. Rainfall amounts waaay underdone. I’m at 0.70″ and by the looks of the radar we’ll be done within the hour

  32. We had .77 so far but I thought amounts were to be 1-3 with maybe higher spots. What did I miss?

  33. NWS in their discussion this morning mentioning the possibility of a few strong storms Wed.
    6z GFS is showing enough instablity and lift for thunderstorms Wednesday. The parameters so far are not anywhere near the level we saw for this past Tuesday.
    LIFT -2 to -4 range
    CAPE in the 750 -1000 range with a pocket of 1500 CAPE eastern CT and close to the Worcester area.

  34. Ok now, where’s the BEEF?

    I don’t see any big wind. Looking over observations, Highest wind was
    Blue hill, G-37 and Hyannis, G-38. Logan highest was gust to 31. (all in knots sorry).
    Big woof. Oh Ok, Nantucket came in with G-48 knots a few hours ago, but it has diminished considerably since.

    Rain totals not so great either. Logan as of 8AM was up to 1.18 inches.
    Highest total I could find was Providence at 2.20 inches.

    It’s still raining, but looking to shut down fairly soon. Couple hours in the Boston area, less to the S & W.

    Looking like WxWatcher was on target yesterday.

    1. Tree came down in brookline on a car and news said some areas without power. Sadly, not mine. Still wind driven rain here. I love mornings like this.

      1. Don’t know how. There wasn’t enough wind to blow out a candle.
        Must have been in rough shape and just getting the rotted root
        system wet was enough to bring it down. Brookline is literally
        across the street from me and I can assure you it isn’t very windy.

      1. We play 2 games. When there are 4 of us, we play kitty whist.
        When there are 6 of us, we play a funky variation of that called
        Up and Down the River. It uses the 2 jokers and card values above Ace. Deal 1 card each, then 2, 3..to 9 and then 8,7..back to 1.
        I like the whist better. More skill than luck. Up and Down has
        too much luck both good and bad involved.

        1. I used to love whist. And Also like rhe skill games. I also enjoyed bridge but haven’t played in decades.

  35. Core of the low level jet must have passed through Marshfield the last 45 minutes because there was quite a ramp up in the wind gusts. I’d guess we gusted to 40 mph.

    Quite a stirred up ocean with 3-5 ft waves coming in from the east, southeast.

  36. HRRR doing very well with the rain (although overdoing the wind), it was one of my clue-ins on the generally lower amounts. Winds are gusty but generally below advisory criteria, and it looks like most places will get into the 1-2″ range for rain, a couple higher totals but generally on the lower end of the range. They must keep a hose going on the gauge at PVD, they always seem to come in as a high total, lol 🙂

  37. Storm behaving as expected.
    No surprises.

    So far I agree with Don Sweeney’s moves. I like him as GM. And I like Claude Julien. But O.S. knew that. 🙂

    Not that it matters…nobody watches hockey…or any other sport…. only football. 😉

    1. That’s ok. I still do not like Sweeney’s moves and I loathe the coach. But perhaps I’ll be proven wrong about Sweeney. Never change my mind about Claude.

      1. I was expecting more wind. Not much of any here. There’s a breeze, but I wouldn’t call it remotely close to big wind.

    1. I have one called “RadarNow”. It functions well and I like it and use it all
      of the time. 😀

        1. You can still use the Weather Underground one
          we usually use.

          http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml

          But it is not so friendly as it is NOT a mobile APP.

          I use it on occasion if I want to look at rotation
          when I am remote. It’s a little difficult to use, but
          it can be managed with patience.

          I don’t even have an icon for it.
          I just type in Boston Nexrad radar in the Web
          location and it will come up. I just tried it again
          and yup it works fine even easier than I described.

  40. Some power outages in Marshfield.

    Highest winds seemed to happen between 8 and 8:45am, not much before that and has scaled back in the last 20 minutes.

  41. If anyone needs to see snow during “early summer”, check out the kimmirut webcam.

    Upper level low went right over them, dropped what looks like is 2-4 inches of wet snow.

    There may be some red sunsets coming ….. While its normal to have forest fire smoke in the summer, in my opinion, there is an above average smoke plume that extends from Alaska, northeastward into the NW territories and then curves southeastward to south central Canada (sw of Hudson Bay). With the overall hemispheric pattern, I think some of this will be circulated into at least the great lakes/midwest region and perhaps into the northeast US.

      2. Awesome. If I had to pick one climate, it’d be snow or cold. I’m glad I don’t have to pick as I love the seasons.

    2. I’ll pass. No need to see SNOW in Summer. They can have it up there, thank you very much. 😀

      2. And the western US ridge is amazing too, with the surge of moisture along its western edge along the whole west coast.

  43. Its June 28th and Logan has not hit 90F.

    89F once on Mother’s Day, I believe 88F three times and 87F once.

  44. I apparently had radar now but had removed for space. I have it again. Thanks OS

    Still moderate rain here

  45. TK said it best, this event looks like a winter storm in summer. In fact, as I heard the patter of rain most of the night and into the morning I was thinking (dreaming) what if this was all snow.

    Looks like June ends as it started: cool and wet. But, still plenty of time for summer to heat up.

    1. It felt that way sitting on the porch last night and also sitting with coffee looking out the window this am. Probably why I’m enjoying it so much.

  48. Looks like rain has quit here. “May” be still a touch of drizzle. Heading out in a few so I can check then. 😀

  49. OS can you get a fishing license online? If not can you go to any town hall or just your own. I detest going go to downtown framingham. There is a bait and tackle place in Ashland so perhaps there? Been many years since I’ve had one but would love to take grands

    1. Yes.
      Ma.gov
      I think is the right place or google
      It. Credit card will do it.
      Then print out. A pdf. Simple.

  51. Found this chart from about a year ago:
    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/482552447026475008/photo/1

    You have to add 91 degrees for 2014 to the 11th spot (July 2) on that chart for latest 90-degree day in Boston. Still hasn’t hit 90 yet in Taunton. Looks like we’ll break into the “Top 10” based on the temperatures posted for next seven days.

    Anyone have a guess when we might hit 90 this year based on the forecast models?

    Looks like it’s a Scrabble day today. Got all of the yard work done Friday afternoon and Saturday.

    Happy indoor Sunday!

  53. More rain coming Into Hartford. You’re right JJ. It’ll be a soggy match.

    Rain doesn’t want to stop here. I’m enjoying watching it change directions with the wind.

  54. Vicki they are going to do split tees for the final round at Travelers and go off in groups of three instead of the usual groups of two in the final round. This tournament always seems to have a great finish every year. Last year Kevin Streelman birdied holes 12 through 18 to win. He even has a plaque at TPC River Highlands for what he did last year.

      1. I just sent out to tell him all excited I knew something he didn’t and got an “I know.” Im sooooooo under appreciated ….sighhh

  55. 12z NAM for Wednesday I feel is a little too aggressive with instability
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  56. Tom, thanks for alerting us to Kimmirut’s webcam. This has been one of the coldest spring and summers in that region in the past 40 years. I think the waterways will melt in July, but the summer there will be very short-lived. It has snowed every week there in June, and been below freezing, too, on most nights.

    One should keep in mind that the Inuit who likely traveled from Siberia to the North American continent thousands of years ago, were in search of a life of long winters and relative solitude. They do not view seasons the way we do. They made a conscious choice to trek north, while others went south (eg, what we call native Americans). This said, I’m sure that some are missing their `summer.’

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