Friday Forecast Update

161 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5…
Strong disturbance swings through from north to south this afternoon and evening and the combination of this feature, which represents lots of cold air aloft, and sun-heated ground from morning sunshine, will kick off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These move out from north to south by tonight. High pressure builds down from Canada Saturday but this will allow winds to turn from north to east and result in a day with more cloudiness at times and cooler air. A warm front approaches Sunday with lots of clouds and a shower threat. A cold front crosses the region Monday with another shower threat. There is not much cool air behind this front, however, and a quick turn to Summer heat will get underway by Tuesday as a high pressure ridge moves into the eastern US.
TODAY: Bright sun giving way to developing clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms moving from north to south during the afternoon and early evening. Any showers/storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Highs 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-82.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29-AUGUST 2)…
Hot and humid July 29-31. Chance of showers/thunderstorms about July 31. Warm and less humid August 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)…
Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

161 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

  5. Re-Post from earlier

    Old Salty says:
    July 24, 2015 at 6:13 AM
    NWS has removed talk of “Cold Air Funnels”, but still are pitching severe weather.

    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY-EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL THREATS OF ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING: FREQUENT LIGHTNING / SMALL TO SEVERE-SIZE HAIL OF 1-INCH OR GREATER / STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING DAMAGING. WILL PREVAIL SUCH THREATS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THREATS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER N- AND E-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND…PARTICULAR FOCUS IS UPON E MASSACHUSETTS ALONG AN
    ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR RESULTING IN GREATER
    INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    July 24, 2015 at 6:19 AM
    graphic to go with that

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t1.0-9/11745571_841346559293050_224578221195606473_n.jpg?oh=39ca35703e1d7bdb7bf0732ea37dad93&oe=56144C8C
    Reply

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Let’s see if day crew at NWS resurrects “Cold Air Funnel” talk.

    SPC has us in general thunderstorm for today. Update coming in the next 1/2 hour.
    We shall see IF they change anything.

    Wouldn’t it be something IF this funky set up today provides us with the
    strongest thunder storms of the entire season???

  9. Coastal, sorry I didn’t read your post yesterday. My thoughts and prayers are with you. I know what it is like to have a sick pet – they are part of the family.

  10. Kind of frustrating again in our lives – husband went for an MRI last wk. for some typical back problems and they found he has an aortic aneurism in his abdomen. He is going for a CT on Mon. If it is too big he will need surgery. It seems the last few summers have been lousy for us. My anxiety level (and I tend to be anxious anyway) is way up there. I may not be on the computer much in the next few days – so hope everyone has a good weekend and again my thoughts and prayers are with Coastal’s dog.

    1. Rain,

      So sorry to hear. I hope all works out well for you both.
      Medical issues are so frustrating. Hang in there.

    2. rainshine, I am so sorry to hear about your husband. My heart is with you and hope for the best possible outcome!

    3. Sorry to hear this Rainshine. A friend of our family also had the same symptoms and same diagnosis. She was operated on at Beth Israel and is doing great now. She was 75 at the time of surgery and pulled through like a champ. Hoping the same for your hubby.

      1. It is nice to hear positive news like yours. We are blessed to be in the middle of medical genius.

    5. Rainshine, sorry to hear about Marc’s news. Sending prayers and positive thoughts to both of you.

    2. Now that we are in the marginal risk zone, it sets us up for a
      “possible” severe thunderstorm watch later today.

      1. NWS service update at 7:15AM remains the same as what I posted above with the re-post.

        1 inch hail or greater, yet SPC has NO HAIL THREAT whatsoever.
        1 inch hail is beginning to get serious for sure. I have never
        seen that. Would very much like to see that as long as no one is hurt and no property damaged from it.

  14. From NWS out of Taunton For Sunday
    COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. IN THE EARLY MORNING AT
    12Z…VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
    VEERING BUT SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20- 25 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
    700 MB. NEVERTHELESS…0-3KM HELICITY VALUES EXCEED 200 AND 0-1 KM
    HELICITIES ARE 150-160 IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH
    MORNING SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
    DISTURBANCE…RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE
    MORNING HOURS WITH THE GFS INDICATING SURFACE-BASED CAPES REACHING
    WELL ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY 18Z. ML CAPES
    APPROACH 2000. THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
    CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MA BY 18Z.

  15. Coastal….sorry to hear about your dog. Our 8 year old dog is going through treatment for Chronic Lyme Disease. We were really concerned about her when she became unable to walk, her joints were swollen, etc etc. She’s 10 days into her treatments and is fine again. The weird thing is that dogs only get Lyme disease 10% of the time after a bite as opposed to 80% for humans.

    Rainshine…I hope everything works out for the best. I also tend to be anxious and a worrier.

    Finally…Thunderstorms and the Boston NWS. They do tend to lean toward the cautious side when it comes down to forecasting them for our area. Everytime they do I disconnect all my antennas, etc for my radio hobby (as well as disconnecting the coax to the cable modems). Better to be safe than sorry.

    1. Hi Keith. I disconnect computers including wires to routers etc. Along with appliances that are not in surge protectors.

  16. IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT OCCUR IN THE MORNING…IT COULD OCCUR
    IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
    FROM NEW YORK STATE. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
    WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 C/KM ON THE GFS…BUT IT IS
    NOT PRESENT AT ALL ON THE ECMWF. WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
    NEW ENGLAND AT THAT POINT…THE MAIN THREATS FOR US WOULD BE LARGE
    HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
    ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT.
    SPC SREF SEVERE WEATHER OUTPUT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATES
    SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH A SIGTOR PARAMETER OF 1 AND EVEN A COUPLE
    WITH 2. SO…AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
    TORNADO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
    TO REACH THE LOWER 80S AND WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY MARGINALLY STRONG
    ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

  17. Coastal – prayers and positive thoughts coming your way for your dog. So tough when our pets get sick.

  18. JJ Taunton NWS is just at it again. Let’s not be concerned just yet and let
    things play out. I can’t tell you how many time the taunton office has mentioned
    the possibilities of tornados and in the case of yesterday “cold air funnels”.
    It’s getting pretty ridiculous! A chicken little effect, if you will.

    When it comes time for a REAL threat, No one will believe them.

  19. Wife may be taking my oldest to the Taylor Swift concert tonight at 7pm at Gilette. Pete seems to think random rain from 7-8pm then clearing for that area. Is this accurate?

  20. Rainshine, I am sorry to hear about your husband. I hope that he can return to good health soon.

  22. From NWS

    UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
    AT MANIWAKI QB IS QUITE UNSTABLE ABOVE 850 MB WITH VERY COLD AIR
    ALOFT YIELDING A LOW FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 9 KFT…-10C AT 14 KFT
    AND -20C AT 19 KFT! SPC HAS RESPONDED BY INCREASING THE T-STORM
    THREAT LEVEL FROM GENERAL TO ELEVATED RISK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS HAVE NOTED THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS COLD AIR ALOFT INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

    Ok then, what constitutes: ELEVATED RISK

    Is that the NWS interpretation of the SPS MARGINAL RISK.
    Someone is playing games here. I suppose marginal is an elevated risk over
    general thunderstorm, but the way the NWS words it, it’s like doom and gloom.

  24. I know that this may not end up being one inch hail. But I feel as if it would be good to do some prep rather than be sorry. I’ve never seen one inch diameter hail. What does it do to cars? And Can I assume it is big enough to break glass deck tables, and the like?

    Thank you!

    1. Sorry Vicki, I have no experience with it.

      I have seen hail almost 1 inch (quarter size or so) or perhaps 1 inch but no bigger
      hit my car while driving with no problems (other than noise). Bigger than inch gets into the damage area which is why 1 inch is the severe threshold.

      Your deck tables? Not sure. My guess and only guess is they would survive
      1 inch or less, beyond that “could” Be an issue.

  26. Vicki we had hail from a severe thunderstorm where I live three years ago in July and some of the hail broke glass from windows on homes and businesses. I was fortunate not to have any damage to my windows. I collected the quarter size hail that fell that day.

  28. Latest from SPC

    …SRN NEW ENGLAND….

    COOL AIR ALOFT /-15 C AT 500 MB/ AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC
    LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION…BUT
    INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
    AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS…A FEW STORMS MAY
    BECOME CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL LATER THIS
    AFTERNOON.

  29. Just went out for a walk at work in Worcester during lunch. Nice stiff breeze out there and some decent cloud towers to the NE.

  31. Rainshine, it is dark your way. I had just headed to sudbury farms and it wss pouring and wind picked up so turned around to close windows and such. Didn’t realize anything would arrive this early

    1. Thanks, Vicki. It got kind of dark here quickly and we had a moderate rain shower w/ a little wind. We live a little north of Sudbury Farms – more towards the Ctre. These showers are moving quickly and seem to be blossoming in size, but so far not in intensity.

  33. Rainshine, best thoughts and hopes for your husband.

    Coastal, hope your dog is better soon. They do become part of the family.

    Without any morning sun, many showers/storms have developed up here in northern Maine, it is pouring !!

  34. Thank you all for your good wishes re: my husband. He has been through a lot medically for many years, but this time he is very anxious. If he needs surgery, at least it will have been caught in time.

    Trying to enjoy this interesting weather but I am just too nervous. Cold pools are usually very interesting – I remember the summer of 2008 where, I may be mistaken, a cold pool sat over New England for days and almost every day we had showers/thunderstorms.

    But looking ahead – big-time heat wave next week. Yes, I will have the A/C on for sure!

    Have a good wknd., all.

    1. Perhaps this changes in the next few hours. We shall so, but so far
      NOT impressed at all.

  39. Perhaps 1st sign of something more serious. Pretty intense cell West of Manchester, NH.

    We shall see how it shakes out.

    1. Lightning showing up with that cell. Pretty much 1st cell with lighning (Or should I say 1st really showing on lightning display. Could be a difference)

  41. 12z GFS for Sunday…. I am not seeing anything earth chattering here like what the NWS out of Taunton was talking about in morning discussion. This is for 18z meteocentre skips over 21z for Sunday
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  42. Storm in NH has 3/4 inch hail so far.
    Cloud tops 25,000 feet so far.

    That ain’t no show, that is a THUNER STORM!!

  44. Cluster of storms coming out of NH moving into MA look to be the real deal
    after the pre-event. We shall see.

    1. 2 other storms in NH now likely have hail as well, although NOT the size
      of that other one.

  49. An airmass that is not humid yet a thunderstorm is showing enough signs of rotation the NWS out of Albany has issued a tornado warning. I can’t remember the last time I saw a tornado warning here where the airmass did not have a high level of humidity.

  50. That storm with the POTENTIAL tornado in Upstate, NY moving at good clip southward and with the link Old Salty posted you could clearly see the rotation making an attempt to tighten up.

  54. OS. We have had an afternoon of Instability. I’m afraid it may have zapped any energy. Or can’t it have that affect with this type of system?

    1. Don’t think so. I think they were pulsing a bit.

      They Seem to be all getting more intense now.

  56. I think Boston gets in on some of the shower action, but no severe T-storms. I did notice on the weather maps that Bar Harbor, Maine (and Acadia) is being absolutely pelted with rain and T-storms.

    1. First round looks to be slipping by to our west, headed southeast over Auburn toward Milford Franlkin area perhaps.

  58. Oh Boy that one South Of Worcester looks to be INTENSE.
    I’d wager it will be warned any second now.

    1. Headed for Uxbridge. I was just going to ask if you see any hail. Daughter is worried about her veggie garden

      2. 80% chance of hail < 1/2 inch so far. That could change
        in either direction depending on storm intensity.

        1. New update. Weird. Only 60% of hail, 20% chance of severe hail, which is 1 inch+ This storm is intensifying.

          Z1 59 dBZ 25,000 ft. 31 kg/m² 20% chance 60% chance 0.50 in. 14 knots NNW (32

          1. Thanks OS. Will hope for best. So many veggie gardens are flourishing this time time of year. Not to mention not wanting the damage JJ mentiined earlier

            1. Our first time veggie garden is flourishing! Three or so dozen tomatoes in just a 4’x6′ raised bed. I’m hoping hail doesnt happen.

              1. Wow. Nice. We love real tomatoes. Daughters first ever and I’m convinced she is feeding to some secret. The zuccinis are about 20 or so inches long by 5 in diameter.

                I hope you don’t have any hail problems.

  59. Wasn’t the action expected to be in eastern MA? So far, areas to the west are seeing the action. Too much stability in eastern sections.

    1. We had a lot of instability here between 1-3:00. No thunder but massive clouds and some spotty rain. It sure does seem to have shifted west, Ace.

  60. Very dark here in Wrentham, and a couple rumbles of thunder. Big storm looks like it’ll pass west of me. A little surprised that one isn’t warned.

    2. Well it is indicative of a stronger echo. Hail stones would reflect better
      and thus return a stronger echo. So, probably a good chance it is a hail
      indicator. BUT, always a chance it is just much heavier rain. Can’t be sure.

  62. latest taunton NWS office update was not filled with as much fire and brimstone. 😀
    They stressed more strong storms as opposed to severe. Also indicated that
    they would start to wain after 5-6 PM. Interesting day, but not all that much in the end.
    😀

    1. Now a purple block (see how technical I can be) over Uxbridge very close to daughters house

    1. * AT 459 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
      CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
      UXBRIDGE.       ..OR 10 MILES WEST OF WOONSOCKET…AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT
      20 MPH.

        1. Pathetically so

          Wunder has Uxbridge at .75 rain from this so fat and daughter said no let up yet

  67. Winding down in Uxbridge but headed into RI at full steam ahead

    Thanks for all of your posts Old Salty. Wx. How it it your way? Ace?

  69. Came out of the woods briefly, popped on wifi and saw the 12z EURO and its tropical system SE of us middle of next week …….. that could be interesting …….

    We’ve had heavy rain showers all day, but no hail, thunder or lightning (thankfully).

    1. Glad Tom that you have not had thunder. I know that isn’t your favorite weather. Although I don’t think it’d be fun for even those who like it when camping.

      1. Thanks Vicki.

        We had that sometime early in our trip. Luckily nothing overhead, but it certainly lit up the dark night. 🙂

  70. Once again, no surprises today. The stuff popped just as expected, when it was expected, and scattered to numerous as expected, with the heaviest stuff being in certain areas while missing many areas.

      1. DT wrote about this on Facebook and blog. He thinks this is legit for some kind of low coming up this way end of July into early August

      2. Wasn’t the word on the street that any hurricane affecting us would not form off of Africa but off the east coast. ??

    2. Very typical for these storms to be in that position. It’s like Aruba, they look interestingly close, but they always or almost always slide east, this one will do the same.

      Picked up .01 lol heard thunder and lightening, lol 🙂

    3. Thanks OS !

      969 mb, that would be pretty intense.

      Well, it will be interesting to see if the EURO or anything else consistently shows it and how the handling of the trof plays out. Whatever carves out that trof is probably somewhere on the other side of the earth, so, who knows how that feature turns out.

      Extra wifi time today 🙂

      Probably not again until we get home early next week.

      By the way, I see the Red Sox have returned well from the All Star Break, glad I missed that road trip.

      1. I envy your trip. I used to take these kinds of camping trips with my kids many moons ago.

        You’ve missed an historically bad run by the Red Sox: 1. The only team in the majors to have not won a single game after the All-Star break; 2. An 0 and 7 road trip, which hasn’t happened since the 1950s. Of course, back in the 1950s the Sox had the best hitter who ever lived. The 2015 Sox have no-one worth watching, in my humble opinion. Yes, that includes the youngsters. I’m not impressed. Give me an Ellis Burks, Nomar, Greenwell, Boggs, Rice, Lynn rookie seasons. Those seasons impressed me. Not Bogaerts or Betts.

        2. IIRC those rookie seasons that you mentioned were accompanied by outstanding veteran teammates, strong pitching and for the most part (maybe not Ellis Burks first year) winning teams. I think that given different circumstances Bogaerts and Betts would be having a more significant season.

          1. Good point Keith. I dont really know enough about the newer players. I do remember the focus on team still existed. Perhaps in large part due to the veterans both on field and retired. A good part of me thinks the lack of what baseball was has made a huge impact on the new players.

            Again, I’m not a good judge because as a fan I lost interest for the same reason.

  73. I respect all your comments, but we have not watched a complete 9 innings redsox game in probably over 10 yrs, it just doesn’t do it for us. Following my old mans footsteps, Patriots and Celtics, the rest we don’t know much. 🙂

    1. Started watching in the Grogan and Bird days, and no matter how good or bad any of the teams do, we don’t sway, always Patriots #1 Celtics #2 🙂

  74. SPC has us in general thunderstorm outlook for tomorrow.
    NWS offices out of Upton, NY and Taunton, MA mention the POSSIBLITY of some strong severe storms tomorrow.

  75. 6z GFS for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  76. 6z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

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