Monday Forecast Update

78 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
The heat of August is here and will be most intense early in the week, especially today, which will be without any rain threat. A shower and thunderstorm threat will present itself on Tuesday as a disturbance is in the region. This threat will still be present but will lessen somewhat on Wednesday, before increasing again Thursday ahead of a cold front. By Friday, this front will be in the vicinity with high humidity, lots of clouds, and a risk of showers and thunderstorms over a larger portion of the region.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s South Coast, 90-95 elsewhere. Wind light SW.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-73. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs 85-93. Wind light SW, variable and gusty near any storms.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows 65-73. Highs 85-93.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Lows 66-74. Highs 84-92.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-73. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)…
Muggy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend of August 22-23. Lesser chance of showers/storms August 24-26. Temperatures above normal during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)…
Temperatures continue above normal, rainfall near to below normal with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms possible during the final days of the month.

78 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  4. Thanks TK.
    NAM model aggressive with instablity tomorrow. 6z run
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  5. 6z GFS not so aggressive
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  8. To me the overnight lows tell the story on what kind of day it is going to be humidity wise. When there in the 50s lows 60s the humidity is in check. Lows in mid 60s your going to start to feel the humidity. Upper 60s low 70s its going to be very humid to oppressive.

  9. For nearly 30 years now, my wife has volunteered a week at a camp in NH. I’ve seen the last 16 years and as far as I can recollect, this is the warmest start to a camp week I can recall.

    The whole middle of the camp is completely open. Only around the ring of the oval shaped camp is there shade. It was 88 to 89 yesterday in central NH with a mid 60 dewpoint and in talking with my wife, she reported a hot afternoon with lots of sun.

    I fealt bad telling her today was going to be 5F warmer.

    Based on TK’s forecast, if they can handle today and tomorrow, the increase in clouds from Wednesday onward should help during the day. Ironically, the mid week nights may grow more uncomfortable with the oppressive humidity.

    My wife has a few hurricane Bob camp week stories …….

    1. Enjoy ! We spent the April school break down there a few years ago.

      I thought the park was very nice. Something more than Canobie Lake or 6 flags, but maybe a bit smaller than a Disney theme park.

      I forget exactly what it’s called, but there’s a place somewhere on the property where you can make your own chocolat bar.

      It’s all good, enjoy, also Hershey itself is a neat, little town.

  11. Thanks Tom. I have never been there before and I am looking forward to it. It sounds like there is a lot of stuff to do there.
    If anyone else on the blog has been to Hershey I would like to hear what you thought of it.

  12. Latest SREF shows considerable instability for tomorrow. (Typically SREF is low
    on CAPE and LI)

    CAPE

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036.gif

    LIFTED INDEX

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFC_LI_f036.gif

    0-6KM Bulk Shear (LOW like SATURDAY)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036.gif

    Doesn’t look like such a big deal, but then Saturday didn’t either, so I don’t know any more.

    We shall see.

  13. There was a situation in May of last year here in CT where the models under estimated the instability and there were a few storms that reached severe levels when it was suppose to be garden variety thunderstorms.
    I was surprised with the strength of the thunderstorms Saturday you had up there.

    1. I should say so. You should have seen things flying around during the wedding celebration. Pretty wild scene I must say, but it all ended well and that
      is what counts. If that wind had been several miles per hour higher, we would have lost the tent and who knows what would have happened. Not sure what
      the tent rating was. I “think” most are only rated for 60 mph. Anything above that and all bets are off.

      I would estimate at the wedding we had 50 mph winds. It was not 60, thankfully.

    1. With that amount of instablity in place on the NAM and SREF model all we need is some sort of trigger. Certainly the
      instability is there for thunderstorm development.

  15. There is something off the coast of Africa moving westward with a 70% chance of development. Current conditions are not favorable by the time it reaches the Western Atlantic waters.

    1. Exactly and that is why we’re not really all that excited by it.

      By the time it moves farther Westward and WestNorthWestward, it will
      run into:

      1. Saharan Dust
      2. Shear

      Between those 2 items, SEE YA!

      If by some miracle, it gets through that area, then perhaps we’re talking.

      Please see AccuWeather Graphic below:

      http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_08161937_hd25.jpg

      From AccuWeather:

      As seen frequently this tropical season, dry air inhibits tropical development by putting a lid on thunderstorm activity. The combination of dry, dusty air and strong wind shear is the reason the Atlantic Basin has been without a named tropical system in more than a month.

  16. For once taunton NWS not bullish at all for tomorrow, in fact, I would say that
    they are Grossly underestimating conditions for tomorrow. Read for yourself.

    MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
    OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE CONVECTIVE INDICES BUILD A LITTLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND LI AROUND ZERO…AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM. COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

      1. Hope all is well. It sounds like minimal to no damage
        and no injuries reported so far. 4.0 usually doesn’t cause
        too many issues. let us hope so.

        1. Yep woke my Brother who lives in San Fran out of bed. Said it was a strong jolt. Doesn’t sound like there was much damage luckily. There has been some activity out there as of late. Hopefully not a sign of things to come.

          1. Glad your brother is fine. I do know that is really nothing to them. I could never do it. I also hope it is not the sign of more to come.

  18. Close up view of 12z NAM for tomorrow from meteocentre
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=033&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=030
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  21. Well, we’ve entered the `dog days of August’ phase. Not pleasant for those of us who could do without triple H. Hey, my cat even asked me this morning “meow, what’s up with the heat, don’t they know I’m covered in fur, meow, meow!”

    While it’s hot as TK corrected predicted, the calendar’s no longer summer’s friend. Summer’s putting up a good fight, but its days are numbered.

        1. Well, you’re considerably younger my young lad. 😀

          I’m OK, but my wife has all three (3) ACs cooking at home!

            1. Are you kidding me?

              My house was built in 1842 and it is
              HUGE. It is built like a castle.

              Do you have any idea what it would be like and HOW expensive it would be to install
              central air, even if it could be???

              Frankly, I don’t have that kind of money.

              1. My BIL just put in two mini splits in their home in CA. Cost $9000. We thought about it but it would never, ever, ever pay for itself.

                1. Yes I know. We have friends who had that done.

                  Very very expensive and for a few days a year, simply NOT worth the expense.

                  For those few days, window units provide enough relief.

  23. Boston made it to 87 even with a sea breeze, but breeze has picked up and has
    knocked the temperature all the way down to 85! 😀

    Unless we get the land breeze switch between 4 and 6PM. NO HEAT WAVE today.

  24. 12z GFS for tomorrow. Not as aggressive as 12z NAM but enough for thunderstorm development SHOULD there be a trigger.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=033
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  25. I think Mrs. OS will get her wish for cooler air fairly soon. The models have been back and forth on a transition to cooler air by the end of the month, but I am seeing a little more consistency. I think we’ll get a cool break of 7-10 days by early September before possibly reverting back to an above normal temperature pattern.

  26. Mac’s brother’s house is 4 miles from the Epicenter and they just felt the quake but didn’t go outside. There was some very, very minor damage with stuff off of shelves in stores. I, for one, would be on a plane. He was saying you can have earthquake insurance for 4000/yr but it has a 150,000 deductible. Or you can have it for 12,000/yr with a 30,000 deductible. And I thought flood insurance was bad.

    2. I think the whole 90 degree heat wave status is a bunch of bs, just my opinion, I’m sure many think like that, except for the very few. It’s sorta funny 🙂
      On a side note thanks 🙂

      1. I know I know. Only Texas gets real heatwaves. 45 consecutive days with temps 110+ … 😛

  28. Hello all! Wow still soo muggy out. What a year it has been last year and this year. Suffolk country broke 3 all time records just in the past year. Revere tornado was first to ever happen since records been kept, same with the snow and hail! Its aamazing to break all these all time records within a year!

  29. Hello all! Wow still soo muggy out. What a year it has been last year and this year. Suffolk country broke 3 all time records just in the past year. Revere tornado was first to ever happen since records been kept, same with the snow and hail! Its aamazing to break all these all time records within a year!

  34. Lmbo!! I could an email from a friend from Arizona stating the trains can only go 25mph? Because it’s over 90 degrees!!! You can’t make this up!!! Sorry it’s hilarious stuff, it’s true!! I looked it up, and then saw it on cnn lol 🙂 goodnight

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