Thursday Forecast Update

3:01AM

DAYS 1-5…
The next 5 days will be muggy but will lack heat. Some unsettled weather will occur at times as a broad low pressure circulation centered near Bermuda (let’s tag it as “The Bermuda Low”) spins moisture toward southeastern New England on a southeasterly flow, and a frontal boundary approaches from the west with plenty of humidity ahead of it. The frontal boundary will move slowly into the area during later Friday then hang around for much of the weekend, slowly dissipating by Monday as low pressure trough approaches from the west.
TODAY: Lots of low clouds to start then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs 72-77 coast, 77-82 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of locally heavier thunderstorms. Muggy. Highs 72-77 coast, 77-82 interior.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)…
Trough swings through from the west with a risk of a few showers August 25. High pressure builds in with drier and warmer to hotter weather August 26-29.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)…
Warm to hot with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

67 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks for the Updated bloggy-woggy. TK.

    Another YUCKY WUCKY morning!!!

    72-77 coast, 77-82 interior. Hmmm Me thinks you are low on these temperatures.
    I’m sitting at 77.9 already here at 8:29 AM. Ocean is 72. Even with SE wind, we
    see 85-88 here I’m sure.

    1. Was I hasty? Temperature here dropped to 78.1.
      Some clouds came in from East for one thing. Perhaps a little cooling from East wind? I think it rebounds soon. We shall see.

      1. Ok, I get it now. Crap load of low clouds. Looks more like
        cumulus than stratus. Covers About 80-90% of sky.

        1. They are fractostratus. They can become hybrid cumulus if enough upward motion gets then building vertically.

  2. re: Danny

    I think we are just about ready to stick a fork in him. He’s cooked.
    Combination of dry air and high shear will doom him.

    The only model that keeps something going through 126 hours is the GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=04L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082006&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0

    It’s still possible it makes it through as a tropical wave and regenerates. We’ll watch for that, but right now that looks dubious.

    1. Yet he becomes a hurricane today. Oh well.

      How long will he be a hurricane. We watch and see. ๐Ÿ˜€

  3. Look over 9Am observations

    Most common wind direction is SE (140 degrees), although Logan is coming
    in with a direction of 080 Degrees, straight East. That shit hole on the coast is
    looney!!! Some dense fog in a few coastal locations.

    Logan is only 73
    Blue Hill 75
    Norwood 78
    Bedford 78
    Taunton 77
    Manchster and Nashua at 77

    Here it is 78.4, creeping back up

    Dew points around 70 all over. Very uncomfortable day.

  4. Was just out running a few errands. Correct, not in the office today.

    Some observations

    Reminds me of Bermuda out there.

    Clouds with a bit of vertical growth to them, been more scattered, perhaps covering
    50% of sky with sun shining brightly in between them.

    Sky is deep blue. Air is clean and visibility is excellent. None of the pollutants
    in the air that would be with a SW wind and a humid air mass.

    This is a pure tropical air mass in every sense.

    This I can take as it won’t be hot. Just warm.

    OH and btw, it is 82.4 here at the moment.

    1. Very good observing. And yes those clouds have made the transition after ingesting some buoyant air. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  5. Looks like a transition to late Summer heat after the unsettled Friday thru Tuesday period. I want great weather next Wednesday if possible. Trip to Water Country for my son’s bday. ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center added 3 new photos.
    Just now ยท

    NHC has upgraded Danny to a hurricane, the first hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph – a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening during the next 48 hours is forecast, followed by slight weakening as Danny encounters high shear and dry air in the eastern Caribbean Sea.
    Danny is centered about 1090 miles east of the Windward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
    Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at http://www.hurricanes.gov

    https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t1.0-9/11892129_926089577456523_1088942163671887004_n.jpg?oh=90649d4134ba61f54e40da1f619f6232&oe=563DCA3E

    1. Forecast positions and winds

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
      12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
      24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
      36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
      48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
      72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
      96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
      120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

    1. OK, I think I know what happened.

      I was trying to post 2 links to TWC photos. I think TWC had a problem
      with their website so perhaps Word Press is in protection mode and is
      blocking those links. Good for them.

      I was showing some maps of dry air and Shear, both of which Danny
      must pass through. There will be no hurricane when that happens.
      The question is what’s left and what happens after the passage through
      hostile territory????????

    1. But more clouds now, perhaps covering 75% of sky.

      Going to be poolside all afternoon.

      Will check in later.

      ๐Ÿ˜€

    1. Same here in Eastham on the outer Cape and most of them are in the western sky over Hyannis. Otherwise, it’s blazing sun with a nice breeze.

    1. Funny mistake in there: “The other three were in 1998 and 1997.” Oops!

      I don’t like the way those articles always say “Earth is STARTING to respond… Things are STARTING to happen… etc” … If we’ve been impacting the climate, it’s not starting. It started a long time ago. ๐Ÿ˜›

      Decently-written article otherwise. ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. I read it twice also. I took it to mean that two of the three were in one year??? No?

        Seems just about each year this century is hotter than the last. I do tend to block out media wording though.

        1. It sounded like they were talking about years, so I would think you couldn’t have 2 years within 1 year. Either way, confusing wording. ๐Ÿ˜›

          In talking with some colleagues there seems to be some question as to how/where temps are taken now versus previously (when that change took place I am not sure). This could lead to some inconsistencies in data but who knows. If you don’t have one side saying one thing you have the other saying the opposite and the real science is shut out. Shameful.

          1. I wish we would look beyond the science and use the common sense we no longer possess. We are polluting and destroying every corner of this earth. It cannot sustain the damage we are doing.

            1. Would you like me to add fuel to the fire on this subject? You almost have me going.

              Since I can’t help myself, a small example if I may…

              When I first graduated from college at my first job, a co-worker was talking about his family’s paper mill in NH.
              I asked him IF they were polluting the river and he said absolutely and so what.

              Unfortunately, that attitude permeates in this country.

              1. When I was young, we ended up
                driving by the Nashua River in Fitchburg. The water was so filthy it was White in color (From paper mills). It made be SICK!! Thankfully, over the years it has been cleaned up with even
                a healthy fish population now.

                1. It’s nice to see that some of the practices have changed and things are cleaner. I noted while at Hampton with my friend the other day that we don’t have as many extremely hazy days as we used to, even on a southwest wind. The atmosphere is most certainly a little cleaner than it was in the 1970s through early 1990s.

                2. So horribly sad. Even with those who were at the forefront of testing for PCBs took liberties they knew were wrong. Mac may well be paying for it today. And I’ll see if I can find a recent article on Louisiana pollution. We have not changed anywhere near as much as we should have

                1. Some business owners don’t see a problem either!!!!!! It’s like NOTHING will get in the way of making money, including destroying the environment!! Shame on them. Shame, shame and more shame!!!!

  7. Was at Logan a few hours ago picking up my son. He visited his mother in the Netherlands. Nice sea-breeze at Logan. Downtown Boston different story, but not hot. I just hope the heat stays away. Heat is in TK’s forecast for later this month, so it will likely be part and parcel of our end of the month weather. You can’t imagine how much I look forward to 66 degree days, cooling off to mid to upper 40s at night, with pumpkin spice latte in hand, admiring the harvest and foliage.

    Please, please Dave Dombrowski, keep Jackie Bradley. He may be the real deal. He seems to know how to hit major league pitching. And, we know how phenomenal this guy is in the outfield. Being a baseball nut I could watch Bradley in the outfield all day – practice or real game: Vision, speed to the ball, athleticism, then a gun for an arm. At the plate, he’s improving enormously: Patient, uses all fields, no longer swinging upper-cut.

      1. Yes, I saw that video. It’s insane! I was a bleacher creature growing up in the 70s and would go to the park 2 hours or more before game time to watch batting practice, which then included systematic fielding practice. Dwight Evans was very good when I saw him in the 70s, but I think Bradley is better.

  8. The broad circulation that is creating the southeasterly flow here was a very well-forecast feature by both GFS and ECMWF models. It is almost like a mini block, but in a different configuration than the one we saw happen so many times in recent months. A clear indication of a new pattern. This means that not long from now a legitimate strong ridge can take place in the East in response to large scale changes we’ve been expecting. Get ready for end of August and beginning of September heat. There are cool times ahead for the West and eventually Greenland, Europe and northeastern Asia. The old Four Leaf Clover pattern. ๐Ÿ˜€

  9. TK, is it safe to say that the kids will begin school a lot hotter than it ended?

    Maybe the climate was different back in my day, but I don’t recall many September days after Labor Day with mid-summer HHH. It was still warm of course but fairly comfortable.

    1. We always had our new fall/winter clothes for the first day of school. Of course girls wore dresses and boys shirts and slacks. No shorts and tee shirts

    2. Today was very nice, felt more like fall than late June, that’s for sure, with the sun angle like mid Aprik, it will be fine for the kids ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Well, it’s not late June, so I hope it didn’t feel like it. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        But Fall? Maybe it felt like a Fall day would feel like in Havana with dew points upper 60s to lower 70s and temps in the upper 70s to middle 80s. But I guess it’s just a matter of opinion.

    3. Yes, it will be hotter. But no, it’s not really different. There were a whole lot of warm to hot Septembers with early school year heat.

      1. That’s true. Definitely seen many a warm September school day. Not many hot ones, though. I guess it’s a matter of opinion, but I don’t think of September days – even those in the mid to upper 80s – as hot. The few days that hit 90 or above are hot, I guess. But, there aren’t many of those, I don’t think.

  10. September 2007 was warm, and we’ve certainly had some warm September. I would never characterize warm days in September as “September heat.” I think the first week of September can feel hot, but usually doesn’t. However, even on really warm September days I wouldn’t call the weather hot. Not enough staying power, if you will. The midday `heat’ is book-ended by much less heat in the morning and late afternoon/evening. I think we notice that by mid August, and have already noticed it in the warmth this past week. The hottest days in mid to late August (the ones that hit 90 or above) feel distinctly different from June or July hot ones. All of them are not so manageable during the day, but beginning in mid August the mornings and evenings of hot days take on a less tropical feel. That’s my humble opinion.

    1. Heat is heat. Even if it occurs on a day with lower sun angle and shorter daylight. Let’s take a look at one of the hotter Septembers…1983. Boston’s high temps were 90 or above 6 times, including upper 90s on September 11 AND September 20 – JUST before the Autumnal Equinox.

    2. Joshua your description is perfect. I’m referring to the 1950s and 1960s. Of course there were hot days. On the whole I share your opinion.

  11. With respect to inside school, September is definitely warmer than June. Of course, Marshfield’s June seabreezes are usually quite chilly.

    As far as outside, I agree with the lower sun angle impact and less light in the morning and evening in late August and September, but ……… I think some of the most uncomfortable weather also happens in late summer due to very high dewpoints, which are more likely now than in June or early July due to the warmer ocean temps.

  12. TK, think we will get high amounts of rain this weekend that will cause flooding in eastern New England?

        1. Of course there is always the chance when you have that set-up, but the coverage will be far from widespread if anything like that happens.

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