Saturday Forecast Update

79 Comments

9:58AM

DAYS 1-5…
For a weak boundary it sure will hang around a while. I’m talking about the front that moved in yesterday and parked itself over southeastern New England. Now this boundary will allow itself to be pushed around by a couple of weather systems, the first being broad low pressure centered well southeast of New England, which will move a little closer through early Monday before heading back out to sea. This system may acquire tropical characteristics but will not be close enough to cause any real impact other than an east to northeast air flow. It will also serve to push the boundary over southeastern areas back to the west between today and Monday, shifting the most likely area for showers westward with time. But by Monday night and early Tuesday, a low pressure trough approaching from the west will push this boundary back to the east and shift the axis of shower threat back across the region from west to east. This will also allow a shot of warm and humid air to arrive Tuesday to replace the cooler marine area now getting established because of the offshore low. And then a final cold front will finally sweep everything offshore by early Wednesday, but this may not happen without another round of showers as well as thunderstorms later Tuesday or Tuesday night, depending on the timing of the front. Though there will still be upper level low pressure over the region Wednesday, high pressure will start building in at the surface from the west and drier air will overtake the area. But with the trough upstairs we’ll probably have some cloud development as well as sunshine.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI. Highs from near 70 coast to near 80 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms shifting slowly westward across the region. Highs in the 70s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers during the day mainly RI and interior eastern MA and southern NH. Showers shift back to the east at night. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers early eastern areas. Risk of showers/thunderstorms west to east across the region late day or night. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)…
Fair weather August 27. A couple passing disturbances may bring a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms August 28-31. Temperatures near to above normal during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
High pressure ridge becomes more dominant. Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

79 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  3. Jp Dave says:
    August 22, 2015 at 10:08 AM
    Hurrican Kilo in the Pacific. Latest Forecasts

    HWRF hurricane model at 126 hours or 12Z 8/27
    115.6 knots or 133 mph, a Major hurricane, Cat 4

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2015082206-kilo03c&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    GFDL at 126 hours. 125 knots or 143 mph, Cat 4

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015082206-kilo03c&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=126hr

    CMC at 0Z 8/27

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082200/gem_mslp_wind_cpac_21.png

    Euro 0Z, 8/28

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082200/ecmwf_mslpa_cpac_7.png

      1. Well, they are designed to model hurricanes. I honestly, haven’t a clue how good they are or which one is best. They always both
        appear to be different, although in the case of Kilo, they
        are quite similar.

        Right now, looks to stay “just” far enough West of kauai. Let’s
        hope it stays far enough West. Else Kauai would be in the most
        dangerous right quadrant.

          1. That would make me nervous 🙂

            It’s an interesting 00z run for the Pacific. I can’t tell if it’s taking Kilo or something else, but on that run, it creates a really strong extra tropical storm and projects it to track right into SW Alaska.

  7. Repost

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How fast can the updrafts inside a cumulonimbus clouds reach?
    A. 40 MPH
    B. 60 MPH
    C. 80 MPH
    D. 100 MPH

    Answer later today.

  9. Looks like you all did the transfers for me. I was a little slow on the blog this morning. Had to help Mom with a few things and since she lives downstairs I’m pretty much always “on call” when I’m home. 😉

    2. Helping mom is always a priority and she is blessed to have you downstairs and I think it is safe to,say you are blessed to have her and your dad upstairs 🙂

  10. If you look at the dewpoint profile across the region this morning you can pick out the boundary pretty clearly, but not as sharply as in some cases. This indicates the slow wash-out of the boundary and the air on both sides of it is slowly becoming more similar. But there will be enough of a difference right through the weekend to add fuel for showers and a few thunderstorms. I don’t think lightning & thunder will be all that common unless you get a cell firing in the right place at the right time. Even then, the lightning production in such cells is short-lived as it usually is a pop-up / rain-out type setup. It can trigger others around it, but each individual one is short-lived and most of them don’t get strong enough to go nuts with lightning. Your main threat from any of these will just be heavy rain for visibility reduction while traveling and of course local flooding.

    Widespread beneficial rain? Not this time. And despite somewhat regular rainfall and lack of sustained heat this Summer, the entire region sits on the brink of returning to dryness issues. It’s not always about several weeks of regular rain making someone have a green lawn. There’s a bigger picture here, and a more important issue, which is water supply. Of course even when we were drier in months before this we were not facing anything remotely close to what the situation has been like in California. The good news for them is that some relief is on the way in the months ahead thanks to El Nino. There is also a flip side to that, in that often times flooding and mudslides result, simply because of the make-up of the land there. It’s just the way of nature, but we’re sitting in the way so it there are results. We’ll be hearing about that in the months to come. Closer to home, we’ll start heading back into issues with dryness, though your impact will not be realized since it’s the END of the growing season and people have already had their fill of nice green lawns and pretty flowers. It’s funny how that can actually be a luxury, not so easily available to all people in all areas.

  11. Danny is going to be “Done-y” after it gets obliterated by dry air, wind sheer, and mountains. Always watch the remains after in case they finally get themselves to a place of more favor. But as for the system now, it’s on the highway of doom…its own doom.

    1. So you think there is a small chance that the GFDL outcome could be
      realized? That would be the scenario you described, where just enough
      remained to re-generate under more favorable conditions.

      1. Seen it happen enough to not take it off the table. But for now, conditions are not good to keep Danny Boy going as is.

        1. To be sure. All that you mentioned. Dry air, shear
          and possible interaction with Mountainous terrain.

          Time will tell.

          Most models say Danny, RIP

          The outlier is the GFDL.

  12. For those of you with Twitter… WHW will be tweeting in the near-future. It will be set up that any tweets will post to the FB page as well.

  13. There simply is ZERO temperature rise so far this morning.

    We are at 73.6, pretty much where we started the day. 😀

      1. That would be a low end Cat 3

        Category 3 96-113 kts 111-130 mph 945-964 mb 27.91-28.47

        The pressure numbers should be reversed
        ie 964-945MB, indicating that the first number is a less powerful storm. 😀

    2. Scrimmage games extreamly boring to me and I love football. I won’t watch it besides I’m beat from all the OT this week.

  22. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How fast can the updrafts inside a cumulonimbus clouds reach?
    A. 40 MPH
    B. 60 MPH
    C. 80 MPH
    D. 100 MPH

    The answer is D.

  24. My 11 year old Plasma HD has seen its last day.

    It starting emitting a foul burning odor last night.
    We had to turn it off and unplug it before it burst into flames.

    New HDs just won’t cut it compared to this one which was truly awesome.

    The new technology is still too expensive, to it will be an LED

      1. That’s different.

        We are currently using an old 19 inch Olevia until we decide
        what to purchase. My son got an incredible deal on a 42 inch
        Insignia, but I don’t really like them. Don’t care for LG either.

        I like Samsung and Sharp, so we shall see. Price WILL play a factor as I don’t have a crap load to spend at the moment, so not sure we’ll go For Ultra HD. Best buy has a Samsung – 40″ Class (40″ Diag.) – LED – 2160p – Smart – 4K Ultra HD TV – Black for $699.99. I’m looking for $300-$400, not $700.

        We shall see.

        1. Business associate got a 40 inch Samsung sharp smart tv 1080 for just over 500 at best buy last weekend. He says it is incredible.

            1. Nice. We spent about 2000 for the Samsung we have forever ago. Amazing how the prices have changed. I’d get a 50 for FR next but 40 is more than adequate. I’d put the 40 in bedroom until it quit and then put 30something back

    2. Our LED is about 11 years old. Or is it LCD. The picture is a bit dark and I suspect it won’t be long. We are a Samsung family. Good luck JPD

        2. Agree john and service is remarkable. There was a recall. Only problem we have had. They were here next day and while they were at it did other four TVs in house.

  26. Jp Dave I usually buy my tvs at Sears but you should take a look at BJS they have lots of tvs. Sears is good for the big tvs cause if you buy protection agreement they will come to your house once a year and PM it ( preventive maintenance )

    1. Good to hear you have had luck with sears. I detest sears and have had the very worst luck with them. We had a service agreement on a fridge and when it went years ago in June, they said they’d be there in 10 days. We got ours at circuit city which is no more and our bedroom at best buy which I consider a fraction only above sears. Pretty much there is no good place so if your Sears works then I’d keep going there for sure. I’m also not a fan of protection agreements, especially with Samsung since so far with five samsungs here and two at daughters nothing has gone wrong other than recall.

  27. Good morning….

    Very Conflicting information on Danny.

    GFDL and the EURO put Danny in a Dangerous position off of our SE coast, while
    other models obliterate Danny. We’ll have to watch.

    Btw, looking at these models, it appears the GFS hasn’t a clue when it comes
    to hurricanes.

    Re: KILO

    Looking more and more that it will pass far enough West of Kauai as to not
    cause too many problems. “It appears”

    1. re: Danny from NHC

      The official
      intensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken to a tropical
      depression in 36-48 hours as it passes near or south of the Virgin
      Islands and Puerto Rico. Danny is expected to become a remnant low
      in 72 hours and dissipate by 120 hours, but interaction with the
      land masses of Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola could result in Danny
      dissipating sooner than forecast.

  28. Both the 00z GFS and EURO have an intensifying tropical system, in roughly the same spot, off the U.S. East Coast in 8 to 10 days.

    For the EURO, it’s now 2 straight runs in a row.

    I think there’s a definite watcher here ……

    1. Look at the next 2 frames of the GFS. It goes poof and elongates and gone.

      I don’t trust the GFS that far out.

      Yesterday’s run of the Euro showed the system following Danny as the culprit.
      Now, if I am reading it correctly, it shows Danny as the threat. NHC sends
      Danny to it’s grave, so I don’t know what to think.

      AND if not Danny, there are 2 more possibilities behind it.

      1. I was wrong. Just took a closer look. It’s still the system
        following Danny. Sorry about that.

        Euro still has Danny placed in a shallow grave and RIP!!!!

        However, the GFDL still has Danny surviving the hostile environment and ending up here.

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082306/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_04L_22.png

        with 250MB winds

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082306/gfdl-p_uv200_04L_22.png

        This would be extremely dangerous of us should this model
        pan out.

  29. Thank you Tom and Dave. Very interesting. I’m going to have to dig out my maps I think. Although there may be no chance of it forming, it sure is fun to watch.

    1. Ok having reread I’m confused. Dave you said GFS has no clue but Tom sees GFS in agreement with EURO?

  30. 9 to 10 days out from now, there will be very astronomical high tides from a full moon at perigee. 2 high tides for 3 to 5 days, each run running at 11.5 to 12 ft in Boston Harbor. The kind where for an hour or two, there’s no beach left and the marshes are flooded.

    A storm surge anywhere, if at high tide, from anything during very late August into the first week of September could be very serious.

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