Friday Forecast Update

85 Comments

1:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
High pressure will dominate through Monday with southern New England on the dry air side of the high through Saturday, then returning humidity follows on Sunday and Monday as the high slips off to the east. A weak disturbance from the west may produce more cloudiness and perhaps a few showers Tuesday.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind light NW to N with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, coolest interior areas. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coastal areas. Wind light S to SW with sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Highs in the 80s.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
High pressure dominates the entire period with fair weather, moderate to high humidity, and very warm to hot air.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
Disturbance may bring clouds and showers early in the period otherwise a continuation of mainly rain-free and very warm weather through mid period with a possible cooler interlude by late in the period.

85 thoughts on “Friday Forecast Update”

    1. Today will be a top 10 day by the standards of most people.

      The weekend will be a fabulous Summer weekend , just ending more humid than it begins.

      Enjoy!

  2. Thoughts on Erika…
    Better than even chance that we’re about to see what the mountains that make up some of those islands in the Caribbean can do to a tropical system. With it remaining weaker my current thoughts are that it will continue to hang out lower in latitude than some of the models have suggested. If this scenario is right then eventually it gets into warmer water south of the Bahamas and near South Florida where some intensification is more likely. The question is how weak will it become before reaching the more storm-friendly environment? We’ll have to see how its trip through marginal conditions and the “teeth” of the islands turns out.

  5. Thanks tk 🙂

    I think we can put to bed the thoughts of a hurricane making landfall here, thanks again 🙂

  6. Feels like a early fall morning with it still somewhat dark out at 6 am with a temp of 52.5 degrees and a dp 52. 🙂

  7. Thank you TK

    Looks like some of our thoughts from yesterday are panning out regarding ERIKA.
    It remained weaker and did, indeed, track farther South and now looks to pass
    over Hispanola. So, there ya go.

    Official NHC track is for a weak system to traverse the entire state of Florida.
    My how things change.

    Official track

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

    Some models even bring it into the Gulf.

    Only one outlier has any kind of storm at all and that is the GFDL which Ain’t happening. For amusement purposes only, I give you the GFDL.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082800/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    935.9 mb, winds 131.3 knots or 151.09734 mph

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015082800/gem_mslp_wind_05L_15.png

    EURO

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015082800/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    HWRF

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082800/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_42.png

    1. GFS

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015082806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

      It’s clear that the NHC is totally discounting the GFDL and going with a blend
      of Euro, CMC, GFS and HWRF.

      Latest Spaghetti chart

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png

      Intensity

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png

      Just about time to stick a fork in it.

      And, btw, it is looking like the Euro was First to pick up on the weaker and more Southerly track. Very interesting.

      And, I might add, TK indicated that there was a reasonable chance that
      Erika could suffer the same fate as Danny. Perhaps and even not, nearly so.

  9. 6Z Hurricane models are in.

    HWRF now a bit farther East.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082806/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_24.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2015082806/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_05L_34.png

    Not a whole lot of change in the GFDL

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2015082806/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_05L_12.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl/2015082806/gfdl_mslp_wind_05L_22.png

    936.3 MB, 121.7 knots OR 140.04986

    The GFL for nothing else has been amazingly consistent in intensity even if track
    has varied some.

    12Z runs next. IF and I only say IF the HWRF tracks still farther East with the
    12Z run, then game back on. Flip-flop,Flip-flop. Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows.

    How would you like to be a forecaster with the National Hurricane Center.
    YIKES! It seems like they are NEVER correct!!!

  11. 10 Years ago today.

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
    1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

    …DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

    .HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
    STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

    MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
    LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
    FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
    DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

    THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
    PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
    FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
    BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
    WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

    HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
    FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

    AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
    AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
    VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
    ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
    WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

    POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
    AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
    INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

    THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
    THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
    CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
    KILLED.

    AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
    HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
    CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
    OUTSIDE!

      1. There was a segment on the Today show about the destruction but also about positive stories of strength as a result. I remember, it seems about this time of day, the news that the levees that they thought had held were giving way.

  16. Ace, I started reading the comments from August 2011 at your suggestion last night. I think I read for well over an hour. You are correct that it is fascinating to go back.

    I have more to read tonight but learned that the storm I called Eric (year prior to Irene) was actually Earl. Hadi made an interesting observation quite early on that the guidance would bring it as a low pressure system through central NE with soaking rains. Charlie was ….well, not Charlie. Formerly OS’s links and comments and responses to questions, as always, were more than terrific. We had the earthquake in the VA area at the same time which many of us felt here. Tom’s memories of the No Name Storm were fascinating. TK had a “Just for Fun” re Irene on August 23 which was IMHO incredibly accurate.

    The links, as I said last night, were broken which was too bad but would have made reading time that much longer. One did lead to a graphic of the cone of Erika enveloping FL which was the first I’d see that scenario. And Philip, I hope you got that colonoscopy and that all was fine 🙂

    We sure did run the gammut but all in all it is a great read. Thanks Ace for suggesting it.

  18. Pumpkin spice morning.

    This humidity-free interlude – between humid periods – is good. Not looking forward to more humidity next week, but I think it is short-lived. I am also not in the 90 plus camp. I think we’ll easily be in the 80s at times the coming 7-10 days, but 90s will be something to `look forward’ to in 2016.

    1. I thought minimal at best, but it isn’t looking good for her. Intensity graph showing more and more models having her not reaching hurricane strength.

  20. This could be devastating for parts of Florida and it doesn’t have to be a hurricane to cause problems. I don’t understand why people can’t get that. Models are showing 6-12+ inches of rain for parts of the state. That is a serious problem that will cause millions of dollars of damage and potentially lives lost.

    1. Because many media make the public believe it’s all about where the center is and the top winds. Not good.

      1. I understand your comment and sadly it is the case more often than I would hope. I have a serious problem with people who allow the media to educate them.

  21. Potential for 8 days of near 90 in some locations starting Sunday if Tuesday’s disturbance doesn’t do much.

      1. 90s in some inland locations, but I don’t see 90 at the coast. Nevertheless, it’ll be yucky and bad with high humidity for the first days of September. Cautiously optimistic about the remainder of the month. I am completely drained at this point from the recent bout of humidity. Just utterly exhausted, also from continuous work and lots of pressure.

        1. The coast will have a few days in which they can reach 90, at least portions of it. And even sea breeze days will be weak as water temps just offshore have cycled to above normal and will stay there for a while.

  22. Ten years ago today, I was in New Orleans. We had gone down to set my son up in school; the storm was expected to hit maybe Florida. All flights out were cancelled (although I must note that not all flights in were cancelled). We actually thought we had weathered the storm and we would be leaving the next day and then the levees broke. It took us 5 days to get out. We were in the Iberville Suites, which are part of the Ritz Carlton; and if you are going to get stuck in a disaster, that’s the place to be. We had a swimming pool filled with drinking water and a lot of croissants–they apparently keep them frozen at the hotel. We had dogs, cats, a parrot…We left with the clothes on our backs, a credit card and our driver’s licenses. Going back was really hard–the first time I flew in, I was looking out the window wondering why everyone had pools–they weren’t pools, they were blue tarps instead of roofs. I used to have to send soap, shampoo and what not to my son-the CVS wasn’t open yet. My son’s graduation was held in the Superdome (only in NOLA can you have chicken nuggets or a beer during a college graduation). It was a long time ago; but it still comes back, usually at the most random times. Just figured I’d check in here; it’s been awhile since I’ve written, but I’ve been lurking in the background.

    1. Hi Deb. I am happy to see you here and also than happy you shared your very personal story of Katrina. How tragic and terrifying. There are many positives amid the utter destruction, but your memory of blue tarps made my heart sink. It was indeed a horrendous disaster…some caused by nature and some caused by man.

      1. Thanks Vicki. I’ll try to put a smile on your face about the blue tarps. In typical New Orleans fashion, to raise money, one of the art groups made the prettiest little house pins with blue roofs, out of glass, and sold them; still have mine.

  23. You know what I always say about rain….. the harder it comes down, the more there is to measure. I hope we are effected by the tropical system in our general area one way or another. Nothing on the spc outlook for our area but I am guess that will change in time. Just how much time? Who knows.

  25. We will likely never see a drop of rain from the moisture associated with Erika.
    Wrong pattern. And it’s a dry one for us folks.

      1. I think some trees will do decently well. The fact that the early (pre-season) color is later than average and that early leaf-drop is limited is a little surprising but also encouraging.

        1. That may significantly vary depending on location, even location within SNE. Driest areas since the spring have been south coast of CT, RI, and MA and then a few pockets here and there that consistently missed shower and t-storm activity all summer.

          1. Did you have a lot of damage in your area to the maples from the winter moths? TK?

            Our maple trees are destroyed.

            I do have a very healthy Japanese maple that has had a few red leaves for several weeks. I just looked out the window and think I see more. Will have to check it out.

            1. A few trees took a hit but around here it seems that we were left much less damaged than areas to the south and west.

  26. So today’s 12z Canadian model is another perfect example of why that model doesn’t even need to be running.

    1. I’m more confident the first part of the track works out ok. I’m not sure if it goes northward quite like that yet. But even if it’s just a remnant low, heavy rain is going to be a problem for part of the region as is typical with these kinds of systems. Some of our heaviest rain producers in the Southeast over observed weather history have come from depressions or remnant lows.

      1. Thank you very much, TK. How does impact to the Keys look? Do we have someone from here who is at Key West? Or either just returned or is going? Perhaps I made that up.

        1. They will probably see some heavy or very heavy rain there but we’ll just have to see how it sets up when the system passes. I suspect it will be disorganized and be carrying areas of torrential rain but not a giant area of it.

  29. Here’s another problem I’m having these days (not here on the blog, but in general media). TOO MANY comparisons to past storms. It can be ok to use as a guideline, provided you know the meteorological setup now versus then and can easily compare them, but having a storm of “x” intensity in position “y” on the same date as one 5 years ago, 50 years ago, or 100 years ago, does NOT automatically mean we’re about to see a repeat event. Repeat events NEVER happen, and extremely similar events are rare. Weather does not come from a copy machine. It is a process initiated by differential heating of the Earth by the sun, which itself is in constant change. It may not be rocket science, but it IS science. 🙂

    1. Is it new? Back when we used paper charts, one thing available was tracks of previous storms to be used as comparisons but like you I never understood why. Do you think folks expect one Storm to be like another or just are remembering? It would definitely be odd to expect any two to act alike.

      1. It’s natural to want to compare things, as it helps us understand. It’s just important to be careful not to let the comparison influence the scientific process to the point of forgetting the current situation.

        1. My exact thought also. As you know, I enjoy memories….others as well as my own. But totally agree with your comment. It is another media thing, isn’t it. Even if an event isn’t horrific, let’s compare to one that is and out that thought in the minds of those who want to listen

  30. The western D.R. should do a number on what remains of Erika tonight. She struggles to live after that, in terms of being a T.S. or even a T.D.

    It’s still a few days away but I’m feeling a little more optimistic about Florida being spared, at least somewhat, from big flooding, at least in a widespread sense.

  31. ESPN continues with its ability to provide the most accurate Information in the sports world. Their website this morning had the Pats playing tomorrow night. At least they Te consistently wrong

    1. It’s sad in a way because once upon a time they were more reliable. :/ It’s sad to see a network like that and TWC go downhill.

      1. Bahahaha, your kidding right? The Patriots defense looks very good, unfortunately no wide receiver, and no coesiveness on the offense, but that will change. 🙂

  38. Charlie you should know this, can’t judge any player based on preseason. Need to see him in regular season games. Probably 90% of his snaps this preseason have been against 2nd and 3rd stringers. The football guru you are, you should be keeping that in mind. Just like you can’t judge a team based on pre-season performance.

    The Canadian Model is getting a major upgrade in October so let’s see how that effects its results.

    1. Hadi Hadi Hadi, we all know you are a jealous patriots hater and voted back in Feb to have them out of the Super Bowl, no hiding from that. preseason especially game #3 is all about finding out what you have, Carolina had a lot of 1st and 2nd string defense in there until about the middle of the 3rd. Sure he’s going against some nobody’s, but I’m telling you, and I can tell from your comment your concerned the Patriots have another 10+ yrs of success ahead of them. Goodnight 🙂

  39. Again no concern, anyone on FB here can attest to multiple posts showing my support for the Pats as well as Tom so you are flat wrong about me not supporting the Pats. Don’t be sorry, I hope he’s the real deal, just telling you that it’s too soon to know.

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