Monday Forecast

68 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
Work week will be largely dry (again) with a cold start and a milder middle and end, though some variability in temperature will be noted mid to late week after a mid week warm up. Part of this will be due to a front that drops out of Canada and wavers around the region from late Tuesday into Thursday. This front will never produce more than a few showers, however.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts this morning.
TONIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows around 40 early then rising through the 40s. Wind light W to SW.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a few showers. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)…
Will watch a trough to the south early in the period but for now the chance of it impacting the region in any meaningful way is pretty low, so it looks like the overall dry pattern continues with temperatures changeable with passing fronts but overall near to above normal for this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)…
Dry overall pattern with temperatures near to above normal as we head toward early November.

68 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    And so starts yet another week.
    Doesn’t look very active weatherwise.

    Had frost on the back window of the car this morning, but not anywhere else.

  4. Good Morning. Thank you, TK. Cannot see this am so no idea about temp or frost. Was up too late for some silly reason 🙂

    1. The game ended at 11:45 PM. How is that too late? 😆

      I was in bed at Midnight and was easily able to get up at 7AM for work.

      I know I am wired differently, but………………

        1. I have no problem with 8:30 PM, however I have to admit, after a busy Sunday doing much work around the house, I have to admit I was getting really sleepy at the end of the game. I even nodded off for a few minutes. 😀

          So, sure I would love 7:30 PM, but that cuts it too
          close with the 4:30 games. 👿

          Always something!!!

  6. In case anyone cares or is monitoring, the latest off shore buoy Sea Surface temperatures:

    Boston Buoy

    54.1

    Stellwagen Buoy

    55.9

    Slowly coasting downward aided by a few days of below average temperatures.

    If we remember back to 2011 when we had that late Oct Snow storm, the buoy
    temperatures were at 52 degrees on Oct 29 or Oct 30 I believe.

  7. Thanks TK !

    Glad we are about at the end of this particular chilly spell.

    Very happy about Pats win …. Big game Sunday vs Jets. While Pats bag big advantages at QB and TE, I do think the Jets are a well balanced team otherwise, with a fantastic defense and some talented offensive players (Marshall, Decker and Ivory). I think they also have a great head coach now. Going to be a tough game I believe.

      1. I actually though that bag was purposeful and a unique
        usage of the word. I thought it was pretty cool myself.

        re: Jets
        Heard a nice commentary this morning by Boomer Esiason
        on the Sports Hub. He indicated that the jets would be the
        Pats toughest opponent to date this year. He thought that
        the Jets defense would be the stoutest the Pat’s have faced.

        The game is at home? is it not? If so, edge Pats.
        Pats injuries could play a big roll in the outcome of the game.

        1. It is at home.

          Tough injury night, offensive line took another hit as well as special teams. Hope they are both ok.

          1. All of the following were injured in the same game!!!

            Marcus Cannon
            Jabaal Sheard
            Matthew Slater

            and

            Not sure how serious his finger is, but

            Julian Edelman

            I presume no matter what that injury is, even if it is broken, they’ll rig him up some how so he
            can play through it.

            Now we are down 2 players for the same
            Tackle position.

            Luckily BB has been smart enough to rotate ALL
            of his lineman around so they ALL can play any
            position on that line. His brilliance shows through week after week after week!!!
            Truly amazing coach, whether you like him or not, his coaching skills are undeniable!

            1. I am not a fan of his personality but then perhaps that is what it takes to be so focused on his game. I am in awe of him as a coach. I’ve been fool enough to question him more than once. He has a plan b, c, d, e, f and right through the alphabet. He allows no nonsense from his players and they give him none.

  8. Thanks TK
    The Geno Smith getting punched in face incident in preseason was a blessing in the skies. Fitzpatrick much better QB than Geno Smith. It should be a great game between the two teams.

  10. 11 AM at Logan, still only 40 Degrees. That is pretty chilly for this time of year.
    Even I will admit that. 😀

  11. I hope Cassell is better at QB than Weeden for my team. If that defense could play like it did against the Pats in the first half last week and our offense could be a lot better we got a shot against the Giants.

  12. Pats had a good game. Butler did good besides for that opening drive for indi. We are undefeated so far but we are only 5-0 and we have the jets next week, who always play the patriots tough. They have one of the best defenses in the nfl. The patriots have to win next weekend. Its a very big division game probably one of the most important. The jets are 4-1 the pats are 5-0. Jets could be the largest threat to the patriots this season. If the pats loose. The darn Jets take control of the division for the first time since 2009 as both teams will be 5-1….. Everyone was talking about the Bills while forgetting about the jets

    1. Matt well said, the jets can’t be taking lightly as they have been playing some decent football .

  13. Charlie will see what happens. The toughest loss in the three game losing streak was the Atlanta game when we were up two touchdowns at three different points in the game. You got to win those games. We have shown we can compete with the personnel on the field minus the second half of the Patriots game. Hopefully Cassell will spark something in the offense. Certainly you could see why Brandon Weeden is 5-18 as a starter in the NFL.

    1. Cassell is a good 2nd string qb, I do think the Giants win that game, but I’m not saying that to take a shot at you, I predict Dallas will be 8-8 or 9-7 for the year, I have friends in Dallas that are sick and tired of the team, sure they are fans of the team, but they say it’s not like it used to be 20+ yrs ago, or even back 40 yrs ago.

      1. Charlie, you have a couple of questions that you have not answered. Any reason? I know you have seen them.

            1. I think I may have missed them. When you said “In the old village” may I assume you were answering my question?

              So Mt. Pleasant? Have you been to the Old Village Post House Inn? Is that where you are going this winter?

              1. Also the Wreck which doesn’t seem to get as good reviews as it once had but converting a boat wrecked during Hugo to a restaurant is fascinating.

  14. I know your taking a shot. Cowboys fan who were alive during those time periods enjoyed great times.
    8-8 9-7 MIGHT be enough to win the NFC East. If Eagles beat the Giants tonight Eagles and Giants 3-3. You look at division records Cowboys 2-0 Eagles Giants would be 1-2 if Eagles win. Redskins are 2-4 overall 1-1 in the division. We can’t expect to get help we got to win football games. Two of the next three games are division games against the Giants and Eagles.

  16. Taunton’s low of 21 this morning was the coldest October morning here since 1983 when it was 18 degrees. Current dewpoint is 17!

    1. You can. Nothing stopping you. Open the link and then right click on the image.
      Unless you have an ancient computer and operating system, there “should” be an
      option for you to print the image.

        1. Too bad it wasn’t in full color.

          I loved it too. Happy at least one other person
          like it. 😀

      1. Where should the snow be for a cold Winter? Central Canada?
        I am not being flippant, I am asking a serious question.

        many thanks

    2. Yes, indeed. There is quite a bit of snow – for this time of year – in Northern Quebec. Now the area of deepening snowpack is moving south towards Quebec City. I do not think QC will get much snow, but just north of QC they will, and about 200 miles north of QC they will have a lot. Will this early snowpack to our north have an impact on us? I doubt it., given the fickle jet stream which really does not have us get consistently long shots of cold air from our north and northwest. This may turn out to be the theme this winter, with massive amounts of snow piling up to 300 miles + to our north (I do predict a banner year for places like Caribou, Presque Isle, Quebec City, Chicoutumi, Sept-Iles), above average snowfall in NE mountains, and below average snowfall where we are at or near the coast.

      1. Joshua, I don’t always agree with you, but perhaps you will
        be correct about this Winter. Time will tell.

        It will be what it will be and not a thing we can do about it.

        I am always on the lookout for ways Mother Nature can FOOL
        the prognosticators. I love it when that happens.

        Is there a fly in the ointment for this upcoming Winter?

        I don’t know.

        1. I’ve been WRONG more than RIGHT. Remember my predictions last winter. While I thought it would be cold, I also thought we’d see little snow. That was an atrocious call on my part. But, I’ll continue to predict. There could be a fly in the ointment. I say that in part because of what your GFS map is showing. There’s quite a bit of cold air up north, a growing snowpack, and that is not going anywhere until late spring 2016. If the jet stream cooperates by buckling and then forming a J by riding lows southeast, east, and then northeast of us, we could actually be in for some major snowstorms.

          1. As long as there is cold to our North, we are just
            too close to that source. It wouldn’t take too
            much to muck everything up.

            The forecast is to keep the Northern Stream
            “Just a bit outside” if you will, meaning just
            a bit too far North to do too much.

            But what if…..

  19. Even though the foliage around Boston is still quite patchy, it is coming along ever so slowly now and should burst all over after this current “cold” spell. Leaves are on the ground as well, albeit quite crunchy and dull due to the persistent dryness. IIRC at this time last year, most leaves were still on the trees all lush and green as if it were mid-summer.

    If TK’s forecast comes to fruition, a boring/quiet winter ahead. Does Logan even see “average” snowfall?? The number I plan to give Vicki will likely be somewhere in the 20s or 30s (inches). If I decide last minute to go higher, it won’t be by much.

    1. I think I have been very low and very wrong for the past few years. I figure why break my streak. I’m thinking of somewhere around 93. But not sure yet

  21. Interesting post by dr. Judah cohen I’m
    Mobile so can’t easily copy and psste.
    Later.
    Summary
    Arctic indicators suggest colder winter
    For us.
    El Nino suggests milder.
    So who knows basically.
    I’ll continue to monitor.

    1. Yes, we’ll be close to the battle zone. I believe that zone will be 150 miles to our north. This is why I do predict heavy snows in the mountains of NNE. Not as heavy as 1969 when Mt. Washington and the entire Presidential Range got absolutely clobbered.

  24. Dr. Cohen’s Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts

    Link: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Summary

    We consider all of these factors to favor a negative winter AO and therefore a relatively cold winter across the Northern Hemisphere continents in the mid-latitudes. However we also have one of the strongest El Niños ongoing that is predicted to last through the winter. El Niño is thought to force milder winters across the extratopical Northern Hemisphere. It is challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather.

  27. I’ll be reading Dr. Cohen’s info in great detail later today and I’ll comment then.

    Meanwhile, new post!

  28. Tk what’s your early thinking on Halloween night? I know it would be tough to predict this far out, just seeing what you think? Thank you!! 🙂

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