Tuesday Forecast

96 Comments

2:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)…
A reminder for star gazers! The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. A clear sky and no moon will provide perfect viewing conditions. This year’s shower is not particularly active, but will produce an average of 10 to 15 meteors per hour especially from around midnight to the pre-dawn hours. Leonid meteors are most easily seen high in the eastern sky and tend to appear very fast-moving with narrow but sometimes bright streaks. Now onto the upcoming weather…
Despite the “warm look” to the upper level pattern, at the surface, a high pressure area that provided a fairly mild and mostly sunny day Monday will give way to a cooler high pressure area from eastern Canada today and Wednesday, which will be bright and seasonably chilly days. The high pressure are will then yield to an approaching front from the west by Thursday, which will see more cloudiness and eventually wet weather which may hold off until late before moving in from west to east. This slower timing of that system pushing up against high pressure will likely mean that wet weather will continue at least into Friday, though with fairly mild air. When we get to Friday night and Saturday, we’ll have a return of dry weather and a seasonable chill.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 rural areas and normally cold suburbs, 26-33 elsewhere. Wind calm.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain showers west to east. Lows in the 30s. Slow temperature rise into and through the 40s day reaching highs in the 50s at night.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially morning-midday. Early morning highs in the 50s then slowly cooling to the 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-32. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)…
Several chilly days are expected as we round out the weekend and head into Thanksgiving week. A mainly dry pattern is expected, however a disturbance passing by sometime on Sunday November 22 may produce some rain or snow showers. The holiday itself on November 26 may be milder.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)…
Look for a milder trend and potential unsettled weather during this period. I do not have a strong feel for the details of the pattern in this period at this time, so check for updates.

96 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

      1. Thanks for fixing it. I was curious about Saturday as we will be marching in the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another beautiful day. A bit cool, but then it is 11/17 and to be expected.
    Nothing unusual going on, that’s for sure.

    That storm out West dropped a bunch more snow on the mountains of
    Northern Arizona, not just in Colorado. šŸ˜€

      1. This year is shaping up to be a great Western US ski season. Eastern mountains on the other hand…might be a tough year by many early forecasts.

          1. Way up in NNE yes with that northern stream likely to be around delivering some snow. Places like Stowe and Sugarloaf might do well but central and southern areas even in the higher elevations might be moisture starved.

            1. Perhaps.

              I have a feeling they do better than you are currently thinking.

              We shall know soon enough. šŸ˜€

              1. Oh I certainly hope they do better than I currently think. I was at the Boston Ski Expo this past weekend and kept hearing grumblings of a not so good winter outlook. Many places have cut down on their snow making budgets for this year due to a nice stretch of winters. Always dangerous to assume a good season since the last few have been good, especially in NE.

  7. Looks like a decent shot of rain Thursday and Friday, but it looks rather mild with temps around 60 degrees. I’m see around an inch of rain. šŸ™‚

  8. I see Logan got down to 33F this morning.

    Not here in Marshfield, a light northerly breeze has some ocean component to it. I’d say it was in the low, maybe mid 40s and we had perhaps 50 to 75% sky coverage of very low ocean stratus.

  10. You get a couple widespread double digit snowfall events snowfall COULD be close to if not a little bit above average. I think there will be one widespread double digit snowfall event in February.

      2. All I will say is that receiving accumulating snow in April is like receiving accumulating snow in November. It usually does not happen. Not trying to be rude, just stating the realization of it all. I believe on average 93% or 38.2 inches of our snow falls between Dec 5th-March 5th. šŸ™‚

        1. This is true, Charlie.

          If the forecasts TK and others are publishing are accurate, then most of our snow will fall in late winter. For snow haters, a blessing, as snow in late winter tends to melt away quickly.

          Nevertheless, weather has a way of throwing curveballs or even knucklers at us all. There’s still plenty of time for that. Let’s wait and see what unfolds once December – meteorological beginning of winter – starts.

        2. I believe you are absolutely correct that storms in April are far more rare than December and especially Jan, Feb and March. We all know well that they can and do occur, however. I wonder how they compare to November. We have had some very significant storms in April in my lifetime. I remember some storms in November but not as large. Does anyone have stats?

          1. I agree. I don’t remember biggies in Nov near the coast. Inland there have been really big ones.
            April, big ones can occur at the coast.

  11. As TK noted a week or so ago, there are days in November that are “Novembering days,” in reference to the Scottish singer Al Stewart. While this is true to an extent in New England, the “Novembering days” Stewart is referring to are more stormy than what we usually get in November. Imagine 24 to 36 hour periods with sustained gale-force winds and gusts up to 70mph, together with lashing rains at times. The Low Countries are being impacted by such a November storm as I write this post. These Atlantic to North Sea storms are qualitatively different from the ones we experience in autumn. They’re beasts of storms, ghoulish almost in their character. They’re not comforting. Everything about them is bleak and suggests darkness. What’s more, they often come in quick succession. Clearing skies and sunny days are a rarity in that part of the world in November.

    1. I believe you are absolutely correct that storms in April are far more rare than December and especially Jan, Feb and March. We all know well that they can and do occur, however. I wonder how they compare to November. We have had some very significant storms in April in my lifetime. I remember some storms in November but not as large. Does anyone have stats?

      1. No idea why that posted there. Dave, I think it is your influence šŸ™‚

        What I had intended to reply, Joshua, was that I was feeling warm and comfy and excited as I read your post and then got to the not comforting and think I must be a bit odd as the description of a ghoulish storm appealed to me šŸ™‚

        1. I understand what you’re saying, Vicki. There is something appealing about being in the comfort of one’s home while observing and listening to (the howling wind is awesome) the storm.

          The ghoulish part is just my description of what it looks like outside during a November storm in, say, Glasgow. It’s really dark outside – close to 2 hours fewer `sunlight’ hours than Boston this time of year – and the gray skies tend not to clear at all. Storms are usually followed by days and days of gloomy gray. It’s a time of year when people in those parts spend almost all their time indoors. And, they make their homes, cafes, restaurants, store fronts, look magnificently inviting.

          1. šŸ™‚ Still sounds like something I would enjoy. Perhaps it is my McCuen heritage and Mac’s Straton and “The” Bruce heritage passed through marriage. Or maybe just my fascination by different forms of weather. I do know I would love to visit Scotland.

  12. The biggest November snowfall I remember happened in 2012 on the 7th and 8th of the month. This came a week after Sandy affected the area. The southern parts of CT ended up with the most snow. There was 6 inches in my town from that storm. The day prior to Thanksgiving in 2002 produced close to 10 inches in my town but the 2012 storm affected more people with snow.
    Here is a link detailing the storm in 2012
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2012_nor%27easter

    1. I remember that one, JJ. Also Thanksgiving day …..ok, let’s see if I can finally get the year (TK?) 1989.

      But we had storms in April that seemed to outdo those.

      1. 1989 there was snow on Thanksgiving. I was five years old and went for a sleigh ride before dinner that day. First white Thanksgiving in my life. I have also seen white Thanksgiving in 2002 2005 and 2014.

  13. I’d much rather have a front loaded winter than back loaded. Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like the year.

  14. I love the snow but by April 1st I am ready for spring. If it doesn’t snow in November I am not disappointed.

    1. Agree, JJ. I’m ready for snow in December, but November not so much.

      How did your eulogy go, by the way? I’m sure you did well.

      1. Hi Joshua…. The eulogy went well. This was the first time I ever gave one. Everybody was saying afterwards how nice it was. I am sure my Uncle was smiling down from heaven hearing it.

  17. If I’m reading the snow averages per month, of course this all depends where you live.
    November- 0.1
    December- 6.5
    January- 11.4
    February- 12.7
    March- 6.4
    April- 0.8
    39.9 Attleboro average snowfall
    Worcester is double this!!!

  18. “The Portland Gale” Snowstorm occured on Sunday Nov. 27, 1898 (Thanksgiving Weekend) in which Boston recieved at least a foot. This is still the most Boston has received to date in the month of November.

    Personally, I can only recall no more than a few inches in any given event during November. Off the top of my head, the late 1980s come to mind so it has been awhile.

  19. Average Snowfall per month for Boston (Logan):

    November = 1.3″
    December = 9.0″
    January = 12.9″
    February = 10.9″
    March = 7.8″
    April = 1.9″
    May = Trace
    Seasonal Average Total = 43.8″

    2. Big difference in the southern part of the whw blog forecast area šŸ™‚

      If Iā€™m reading the snow averages per month, of course this all depends where you live.
      November- 0.1
      December- 6.5
      January- 11.4
      February- 12.7
      March- 6.4
      April- 0.8
      39.9 Attleboro average snowfall
      Worcester is double this!!!
      Reply

  20. According to Eric, the pattern could turn “wintry” around here at the end of the month. Is this very possibile TK?…or continued mild & dry?

    1. He was indicating what I talked about the other day, and that is a couple troughs dropping through to give the illusion of a full scale pattern change. This will occur, though a full change will not. The long term pattern into December is still mild and dry.

  22. Big temperature spread right now from lower 40s around the city to the upper and even a few middle 20s in the normally colder suburbs. So if you’re out in one of those areas and it feels pretty cold to you – you’re absolutely right.

    I’m in the middle here in Woburn, sitting in the middle 30s.

  24. Vicki did you feel a little shaking going on 1.5 minor quake centered in holiston felt in Millis , Framingham etc.

    2. Really. Interesting. We have a fault that goes right through here. What time? Dog was nuts around 8:00 but he had just had a bath.

  25. Provincetown and Pittsfield both 26. Not too often you see those 2 at the same temp at night at this time of year.

  27. Boston.com not only makes a fool of itself with its headline: “Did you feel it?” But then you have people making things up: “loud boom and house shook”. Really? Since when can you feel a 1.5? Not happening. Another glaring example of stupidity in media.

    1. Is it media? Holliston police officer Who is a relation said folks were calling in before it was reported as a quake ? I sure wouldn’t think a boom though

      1. Jusr got email back from owner of barn in Holliston where daughter kept her horses. Horses were spooked. But that is to be expected as they sense far more than we do. I saw if happen back in early 90s when there was one further west of here

        Question. If quake in VA/DC area years ago was mild but we felt it here, what magnitude would it compare to here.

        1. The “boom” sound would be much more likely. Science has proven that we cannot feel anything under 2. Therefore, if anyone felt it for real, the initial magnitude report is wrong.

          I don’t remember what the magnitude of the VA/DC quake was, but it’s important to remember that impact increases exponentially with increasing magnitude. Also, it would depend on the depth of the quake and the type of rock.

          1. Refreshed memory. Magnitude was 5.8 which is thousands of times more powerful than tonight’s 1.5. That quake was also very shallow and in a type of rock that transmits such waves very easily. That was why it was felt over such a wide area. That type of rock is very extensive at that depth.

            1. We also have a very different structure to our faults. I wonder if that would account for people feeling it. It is hard to make things up before you know anything happened. Certainly animals do not. And calls came in first. Thanks for explanation about boom sound. Didnt know that. Very interesting

              1. Sorry TK – forgot to say that I did know the VA quake was significantly larger but wondered what the equivalent magnitude would be when it reached here. That was just a curious question.

    2. Very normal for folks to make things up, understandable, most will be like”oh we had a quake?” I knew I felt something, well really they felt nothing, all in there heads.

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