Wednesday Forecast

131 Comments

4:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)…
The warmth has been the story of December 2015, and will continue to be front and center for the next few days, which includes what will be a record warm Christmas Eve and a very mild Christmas Day too. Before that, a warm front will push northward toward the region today, bringing additional rain. Some of this rain may be heavy, impacting the evening commute and shopping trips. This rain will lead the warmest push into the region tonight and Thursday (Christmas Eve). Does someone see a 70 degree high on Thursday. Most areas will likely remain below that, but it is not out of the question entirely. In addition, we’ll see pretty high dewpoints for this time of year, so it will feel rather humid. A cold front will charge across the region Thursday evening, but it looks like most of the support for showers and possible thunderstorms will be in southwestern New England, leaving only a minor risk of activity across the balance of central and eastern MA, southern NH, and RI. A small bubble of high pressure will move in for Christmas Day Friday but the front will not be that far to the south, so some cloudiness may linger, and it will be mild, though not as warm as Thursday. That front will start to edge back to the north and be an avenue for low pressure waves that will bring some unsettled weather at times over the weekend, though I’m not looking for any significant storminess.
TODAY: Partial sun possible morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Cloudy afternoon with numerous rain showers arriving south to north. Highs 50-58. Wind light N shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with frequent rain showers, some heavy, during the evening, ending from south to north by later evening. Areas of fog. Increasingly humid. Temperatures steady 50-58 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light E shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 60-65 South Coast and Cape Cod, 65-70 elsewhere. Humid. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy with isolated rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain at times late day or night. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)…
Dry, windy, colder December 28 as a cold high pressure area moves across eastern Canada. Low pressure from the west brings wet weather December 29 which may start as snow or mix as cold air hangs around briefly. Fair weather returns December 31 and lasts through the first day of 2016 with temperatures not as anomalously warm as previous days – averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)…
Still leaning toward a mostly dry pattern, not as warm as many of the December days as we get into more seasonably chilly pattern for a time.

131 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. People making a big deal on the warmth for this Christmas but it was toasty last xmas as well remember.

    1. People make a big deal about everything, and it starts with media.

      Yes it is remarkably warm this month, but as I have stated MANY times, and as a long time meteorologist studying patterns around the world, we’re in fairly uncharted territory with an El Nino of this magnitude and location. So this is a little natural experiment and we’re now seeing the results of it.

  6. I had a chance to read the climate change comments last evening ….

    My input into this …..

    I’ve seen articles on studies the last few years that have proposed that, in the past 5 years, its the ocean’s that have added additional heat, as opposed to seeing continued warming measured on land.

    IF this is true, which is a big if, then perhaps that’s why this El Nino is very, very strong. If the ocean’s have continued to moderate, then it might contribute to the intensity of this El Nino.

      1. I’m not sure at all, as I don’t have a lot of experience following or even understanding how it builds and then eases.

        I do however think the impact to the atmosphere is going to lag for a while, from the time that the ocean temperatures begin to cool.

    2. There are 3 known El Nino episodes very close to this magnitude though, so if that is a factor it’s probably a minor one.

  8. I for one am enjoying this weather as most here know I am not a winter lover . I do however respect that some folks do not like this pattern and hope you can get some weather that you can enjoy as well. I think we get snow and cold for sure . I’ve talked to a variety of people and all seem to say this is like last year and they think winter will be tough again just later on.

    1. Very nice comment, John. And it was warm last year around Christmas. I’ll introduce a new concept…perhaps the seasons are shifting 😈

      1. A couple of my elders thought the same thing in the early 1980s when we had a series of extremely cold Christmas Days, especially 1980 and 1983. But I did have to remind them that we had the super warm and rainy Christmas Eve of 1982 stuck right in the middle there, during the strong El Nino. 🙂

        The concept may be there, but unless the Earth’s wobble and orbit are shifting, the seasons won’t change very much if at all.

  10. Let’s try a little perspective to illustrate why we “don’t know enough to know enough”. And no this is not an invitation to be ignorant. It’s an invitation to be smart. Read on.

    You have a large container full of marbles of various sizes. You cannot see into this container in any way, however you are able to reach in (blindly) and remove one marble at a time with a pair of grippy tongs, so you cannot see or even feel the marble until you remove it.

    Each marble represents an El Nino episode that has taken place during the Earth’s history since the continents and oceans are set up as they are now, and its size is directly proportional to the magnitude of the El Nino that it represents. Remove enough marbles to match the human-observed El Nino episodes that have occurred.

    After you have removed enough marbles to represent man’s history of observing these, you pick up the container and realize there are dozens upon dozens upon dozens of marbles still in there, and you have no idea what sizes they are. There is a very very high chance that many of them are larger than the largest one you pulled out among the relative few that you can now see with your eyes. Yes, you can say that “this is the largest one I’ve seen”, but you must keep in mind that your only viewing a very small slice of history and there is a plethora of unseen and unknown hidden from your view. Science, media, and general public should NEVER forget this.

    2. Excellent example and I agree. We are but a speck in the eye of our world/our universe.

      However…..knew one was coming from the curmudgeon among us, didn’t ya?

      That is very true all things being equal. However, are they equal? In the short time we have been on earth, we have done our best to destroy it and all living things on it. What if you make holes in that container?

      I agree that no one should ever lose sight of the example you gave. I also believe that no one should lose sight of the damage we have done and understand it absolutely affects everything about this planet….no exceptions, including climate. It seems to me the powers that be, for the most part, understand your concept, TK. It is when it comes to the latter, that I believe they diverge.

  11. It was warm to very warm on Christmas Day 1986. A couple of days later we got a 6-8 inch snowstorm. In 1986, as I recall, the oscillations were huge, to put it in Trumpian terms. I was living in Holland at the time, but flew to Boston to visit my parents around the 18th. Really cold when I arrived. I’m talking single digits at night. Ice on the ponds and rivers. Then a moderate warm-up for a couple of days, retreat to cold, then a major warm-up (mid 60s on Christmas Day). Difference between that more classic December in my opinion (with lots of ups and downs) and this one is that this year there has been absolutely no cold at all. Even last year we had a few really cold days and nights. Nada this year. I realize that the month isn’t over, and there’s talk of cold next week. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve thrown in the towel on this month.

    Great discussion on this blog on climate change. Matt, Vicki, Charlie, and others contributed. Differences of opinion are what makes us strong, especially when conducted in a civil tone.

    TK’c comment hit home:

    “Take care of your Earth regardless our level of impact. You clean your house for guests. Clean your Earth for the future.”

    Yes, and this is my motto, too. Caring about the environment does not mean being alarmist. But, it does mean conserving energy, protecting wildlife and natural habitat, reducing CO2 output and other pollutants in a prudent manner. None of us would want to be enveloped by harmful smog, as Beijing is currently, owing to rapid industrialization and the concomitant presence of thousands of factories.

  12. Good Morning,

    The 6Z GFS is more robust for the 29th than the 0Z run.
    Showing some accumulating snow for the area.

    JJ posted the Instant Weather Maps version.

    Here is the Tropical Tidbits version.

    Here is the snow at its height:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png

    Here is the accumulation map:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122306/gfs_asnow_neus_31.png

    The one JJ posted uses a special algorithm. This one uses a straight 10:1 ratio
    on the snow, which is not likley to occur with this event. More like in a range of 6:1 to 8:1 is my guess.

    Since TK only indicated that it could start as snow or mix, he does not appear to
    be buying this solution at this time.

    Thoughts all? 😀

    At this point, I’d take 2 inches of snow on the front end and be happy. 😆

      1. The Euro has the same interesting feature, albeit a bit delayed
        as the CMC for 1/2. Hmmmm

        At least things are beginning to look somewhat interesting.
        Something that was missing all during December.

        Can’t wait for the 12Z runs. 😀

        1. Can you imagine how bad people will freak out if we even have 1 to 2 inches of snow timed right for the morning drive on Tuesday? Even if it warmed up, rained, and any snow vanished right after, the vast majority of the population would be traumatized and immediately think we were in the middle of a snow blitz as bad as last Winter. 😛

          Exaggeration? Slightly. But pretty close to how it would be. 😀

          1. Of course that is how it would be.
            But, me? I’d be driving into work with the biggest
            shit eating grin on my face. 😀 😀 😀

    2. We had a storm on the 29th a few years ago as I recall? No? Not that it makes a difference …just a comment

  15. TK, love your perspective and analogy using marbles. It is always important to remember the context when looking at the details. Forest through the trees type stuff…..anyways, things are getting a bit more interesting around here. Front end snows are very tricky to predict, but like OS I’d take a dusting of snow at this point and be happy with it. My son is a year and half and it would be nice for him to enjoy his first snowfall.

    1. I have a sneaky suspicion that part of the region may get whacked for just a couple hours that morning… Not sure where yet.

      1. I love it when you feel that way. Usually means something
        is up.

        You must be awaiting the 12Z runs as much as I am. 😀

  16. Forget the snow/mix risk next week Dave, you should be upset that it looks like the shower/thunderstorms may die out before they get here on Thursday evening. 😉 TYPICAL! 😛

    1. Nah, I was expecting that anyway. Not in the slightest.
      I am, however, fulling expecting 70 degrees for Logan.

      I am focusing on what happens front end on 12/29
      and what, if anything at all, materializes for 1/1-1/2.

      IF and I know it is a BIG IF, we could manage a whopping 4 or 5 inches
      of front end snow on the 29th, that would be a nice start to the season total.
      The more, the better, if any of the higher predictions/guesses/wishes are
      to come to fruition.

      Probably end up with a trace or even a goose egg. 👿

  17. Daughter who wants to move Christmas just reminded me that she had suggested to her dad that he figure a way to get the jet stream to reconfigure so we can have a warm December and if possible winter.

    Climate change and pollution are now off the hook. I think we found the mischief maker. Would be right in line with some of the very odd but amusing things that have been occurring here 🙂

  18. Ok, it’s time I confess. I bought Simon Bar Sinister’s old weather machine at a yard sale. It still works! Sue me for wanting to play with it! I can’t help pushing buttons! It’s all my fault! 😛

    (If you don’t get the reference, just ask.) 😀

  20. GFS is increasingly adamant that cold air will be very hard to push out during early next week’s event. Major winter storm region-wide on the 12z run. With recent warmth and lack of snow cover, however, it seems suspect.

  21. I am suspicious given the pattern we are in. However if it ends up being colder I wounder if it would be a snow to ice situation?

  23. Hmmm
    Interesting and MORE interesting, EVNE INTERESTINGER!!!!

    12Z GFS has the 29th system now primarily a SNOW event with some rain, but
    MOSTLY SNOW!!!

    Surfacemap:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png

    Here is the Tropical Tidbits snow map:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122312/gfs_asnow_neus_31.png

    Instant Weather Maps Snow Map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=174

    With this runs, It makes that CANADIAN HIGH stronger and It HOLDS its ground
    and does NOT move quickly off to the East. Also, oriented more to the North
    and even NNW of us, in a really nice postion, FORCES more of a coastal and keep
    winds favorable and the cold air in for SNOW.

    I know it’s still 6 days out or so, but this is a MAJOR change in the model
    presentation. MAJOR!!!!

    Signs of things to come????? Who knows. But afther this month, I find these
    charts TRULY AMAZING!!!!!!

    Sure, much can change, but this is SOMETHING to watch!

      1. I could do without snow on the 29th. My sons are getting tickets to WWE Wrestling in Providence for Christmas and I am the lucky one who gets to bring them (God help me!). We all know the Boston to Providence corridor can be very unpredictable. 🙂

        1. It’s still 6 days out and much can change, however, I would caution as previously this was depicted as a total
          and complete LAKES CUTTER.

        2. Is granddaughters bday too, Sue. That’s why I remember a storm on or around that date a few years ago. We can get out the dryers if we have to 🙂

      3. Hmm I saw a quick shot of snow to ice to rain, the column will not be cold all the way through. Just my opinion at this time 🙂

        1. Charlie,

          Please take a look at how that high is situated.

          Although it may not pan out as depicted, as depicted
          this is a mostly snow event.

          It’s 6 days out and you could end up being correct, but
          this map was a joy to look at (for me anyway!)

          😀 😆 😆 😆

          1. Understandable, but at this moment I think we have a snow with a change to sleet and freezing rain to plain rain.

  24. We need to see how quickly the energy from the system over the great lakes goes to the coastal. If its quick enough then we can have a descent size winter storm, if not then the euro will win.
    GFS been consistant
    Euro has been consistant
    CAnadian has been relatively consistant with the gfs.
    to far away to pin point anything, but fun to watch and a prayer that ski areas will at least get cold enough to produce man made snow

  25. The air feels and smells like March. Even looks a bit like March.

    We Will get snow. And, after a few wks. of it, especially if it goes into late March or even April – there will be complaints. I am sure I will be guilty of complaining too. So, I am trying to enjoy the mild albeit damp and dismal weather. What’s really lousy is all the traffic. I hate traffic. 🙂

  26. Another reason to be wary of that particular system …. it is going through the southwest …. two days from now, the models might show that thing cut off down there. Fun to watch for sure and see what the trend is.

      1. I’m not sure if there had been other warnings earlier. Our students are off cluster, so, I just had a chance to take a peak.

        2:20 ……. 2:20 !!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        2. What the bleep is cluster?
          Bring thoughts of something not so nice as in
          this traffic is a Cluster ****!!!!!!

  28. Parts of Tennessee and Kentucky in moderate risk for severe weather. COULD see some long tracked tornadoes in those areas today. Hopefully nothing will materialize.

  30. Rumor has it that dancer, dasher, and vixen have gotten into a serious spat about global warming. As we know from the 1964 classic movie, these reindeer can talk. And besides toys and presidential politics they’re now debating the climate. Vixen believes there’s a trend towards more fog on Christmas Eve, and that this is due to global warming. She’s upset because of how important this has made Rudolph. Apparently, Rudolph has become one conceited reindeer over the years of a global warming trend and is now teasing the others because they don’t have glowing noses. What started as a civil argument about global warming has turned into all out war among the reindeer. Santa’s having a fit. His sleigh is loaded and ready to go, but his reindeer won’t budge. There’s talk of `hiring’ a herd of caribou spotted just south of Kimmirut. Problem is their navigational skills are sketchy. So, after many years of refusing to give in to modern technology, Mrs. Claus is installing a GPS system on the sleigh dashboard. Hopefully, the Chinese and Russian governments won’t hack into the system to divert all toy deliveries away from the U.S. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

  31. And then there is the Euro for the 29th, still taking the system as a Lakes Cutter
    with the High Moving to the East.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015122312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

    Eventually something forms, but too little, too late

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015122312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

    Will have a look at the Wundermap soon and see what snow that shows, IF any at all.
    0Z Euro showed about 1-3 inches of front end snow for Boston, More to the North.

    So, most likely the GFS is off base on this and some blend of the CMC/EURO
    will be the correct solution???? BUT, there is still time for sure.
    UNLESS the GFS is onto something? TK, care to comment on that? 😀

    1. That’s what I think happens, I do think it snows, but only for an hour or 2 but changing to sleet and then rain rather fast especially inside 128. 🙂

  33. HMMM

    I do not know how accurate the snow map is for WUNDERMAP, but here
    is the Wundermap EURO snow map at about 162 hours. It shows about a 6-8 hour period of SNOW prior to any changeover. This shows about 5 inches for Boston
    and up to about 8 inches N&W of the City. Hmmmmm

    http://imgur.com/9FoGA9C

  34. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Nice snow to mix event on Tuesday on the Euro. Very cold in low levels with daytime temps in the 20s

    1. Indeed. It’s looking more and more like a very interesting day.

      Waiting for TK to chime in with his thoughts. Looking forward to the later runs as always.

  35. Norfolk, VA : 70F, dewpoint of 67F

    Cape Hatteras : 72F, dewpoint of 68F

    Wilmington, NC : 75F, dewpoint of 70F

    Here it comes …….

  38. The more I look at that Tuesday event, the more I believe it’s looks like possibly a quick shot of snow changing to rain rather fast. Again just my opinion. 🙂

      1. I go with trends, and there basically what everyone else looks it. I look at the 4 most reliable models, and see what way it’s trending. I believe the models have already trended the way of my thinking. Your area may receive more snow than Boston. I think this will be one of many snow/ice rain events that play out like this. That is just how I see it. I’m not a big guy on copying links. 🙂

  39. 18z GFS much warmer/less snow. This’ll be fun to watch, so many question marks; strength of the high pressure/magnitude of the initial cold air, primary vs. secondary low track/strength, thermal profiles at all levels, etc. I think the combination of no snow cover and warm ocean, with the primary low being dominant and very far west, will mean more wet than wintry for most. But worth watching and winter weather could definitely be a factor inland.

  40. HRRR and RAP generally agree on about an inch of rain in most places when this batch of rain is said and done. Higher amounts possible in embedded downpours/t-storms from around 10PM-2AM. Seems reasonable based on radar.

  41. 18z tuesday gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122218&fh=246&xpos=0&ypos=167
    00z gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122300&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167
    06z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122306&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=167
    12zgfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122312&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167
    18z wednesday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122318&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167

    Lets see if the gfs gets back the larger winter storm or not. Latest gfs says lower amounts.

    Canadian
    12z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122212&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=167
    0z wednesday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122300&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=167
    12z wednesday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122312&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=167

    Euro
    wednesday 12z
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
    wednesday 0z
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
    its very early but there is something to watch. 🙂

  42. 18z tuesday gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122218&fh=246&xpos=0&ypos=167
    00z gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122300&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167
    06z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122306&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=167
    12zgfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122312&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167
    18z wednesday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122318&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=167

    Lets see if the gfs gets back the larger winter storm or not. Latest gfs says lower amounts.

    Canadian
    12z
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122212&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=167
    0z wednesday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122300&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=167
    12z wednesday
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015122312&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=167

    Euro
    wednesday 12z
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
    wednesday 0z
    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
    its very early but there is something to watch. 🙂
    Reply

  45. WxWatcher, nice analysis. 18Z GFS has backed off considerably, BUT, we must keep in mind, it is an 18Z run. IF the 0Z run backs off, well who knows. It could be a trend. It could be the models doing their usual flip flops responding to new data.

    It will be fun to watch, but I suspect in the end, you may be correct.

    18Z shows something else down the line, but it is just too far out. One thing for sure,
    it seems to be trending towards getting back to more normal Winter weather.

    We shall see.

    1. Pretty stark differences in how the 12z vs 18z GFS handle everything from the northern US to Greenland around that 12/28 to 12/29 timeframe.

      Can see how the differences up in Greenland down into Labrador and SE Canada result in two different scenarios.

  46. First guess on next week’s system:

    Boston and coastline: < 1 inch of glop, rain after that

    5 miles inland to 495: couple of inches, glaze, rain after that

    Outside 495: Possibly as much as 6 inches of rather wet snow

    Ski country: 6-12 inches NH and Maine, lesser amounts Vermont

  48. So exciting! Talk of snow and tomorrow’s Christmas Eve!
    Back to the kitchen to make eggplant parm! 🙂

  49. Merry Christmas everyone!

    Nice to see a storm is on the horizon. My early thoughts are mostly rain east of 495 with a few inches of snow to mix to rain west of 495. Thermal profiles do not appear favorable at this time and the marine layer will wash away hopes of accumulating snow in the Boston area. Just my thoughts.

    2. Could very well be. It all depends. We shall see. I’m Hopeful, but don’t
      expect much either. 😀

      Nice to see you checking in.

  52. Well, that 00z run for our area showed a brief 1-3 hours of front end snow followed by a rather quick change to rain. Anyone along the Boston to Providence corridor looks like maybe an inch, possibly 2 inches of snow before being washed away during Tuesday. Inland west of 495 could be problems. Goodnight 🙂

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