Monday Forecast

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)…
Cold air settles in today with fair and windy weather as high pressure builds to the north of New England. Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes and redevelops near the New England South Coast Tuesday bringing a period of precipitation, starting as a snow to sleet transition then eventually to rain before ending. The longest period of frozen precipitation will be north of Boston where some minor accumulation is likely, but overall warm air from the ocean and above normal ocean water temperatures will be too influential and the rain wins out. In addition, dry air working in from the west will shut off the making of precipitation by later Tuesday afternoon and only low level moisture will be available for additional rain/drizzle, where it will be far too mild for any frozen precipitation. A brief break early Wednesday before a second wave of low pressure brings brief rain late Wednesday. A drier and cooler trend arrives for the final day of 2015 and the opening day of 2016.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet developing before dawn, rapidly mixing with rain near the coast, and probably starting as a mix and going right to rain closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows in the 20s southern NH and northern MA and 30s elsewhere. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet north and west, sleet/rain south, transitioning to all rain then tapering off later to light rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Snow/sleet of a trace to 1 inch mainly Boston area west and north with around 2 inches possible Merrimack Valley into southern NH away from the coast. Highs 35-43. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)…
A pattern change brings seasonably cold to slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)…
A continuation of a seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal pattern with again mainly dry weather as southern jet stream energy likely remains too far to the south for impact and northern jet stream energy remains fairly weak with no more than a couple very light precipitation events.

219 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. I’m up north (east central Vermont). Rain all day yesterday. A truly dismal day. Even the Vermonters were complaining. Rain changed to snow in almost all locations overnight. Left a pretty dusting of snow and ice. Byways are slippery. Several inches of snow in the upper elevations, including the White Mountains. More coming tomorrow.

  2. Good morning again and thank you TK for the Monday update.

    I heard all sorts of crap this AM re: Bill’s decision
    It sure sounds like he ordered the kick off. YIKES
    That is insane.

    My wife and I have a conspiracy theory on the game.
    The game SMELLED from the start. It was a BAG job.
    Tell me WHY with 1:57 left in the first half, Bill decides to run out the clock, literally with run play after run play? Normally he goes for the Jugular.
    Tell me WHY Bill kept wasting time outs near the end of regulation?
    Then took a knee without a whimper.
    Some things just didn’t add up. Sorry.

    Ok, I’m done. We’re onto Miami.

    1. The bottom line is that BB tends to quickly lose confidence in his players. If you remember he went for it on 4th down in Indy a few years ago because of no confidence in the defense.

      1. And not to mention the first SB loss to the Giants when he had no confidence in Gostkowski during his rookie year.

  3. IMO BB felt he had a better chance on defense as Brady was getting pounded in the 4th quarter. The OLine is a huge issue for them right now.

    1. I understand all of the above, but it still makes no sense to me.
      I am a logical person to a fault. I am much like the Star Trek character Spock.
      I took a Logic course in College and got an A+ without even trying. It just came so easily to me.

      That decision continues to baffle me. I’m sorry. Yes, I know I said I was done.
      I LIED. Sorry. I can’t help it. I went ballistic when that decision came done.
      BALLISTIC*!@*#&*(&!@*(#&*!&@*#&!*&@#*&!*(@&#*!&@#*&*&!@

      His defense was pretty porous yesterday. Yes, they made 2 stops in a row.
      Perhaps that lulled Bill into a false sense of confidence. I KNEW beyond a shadow of a doubt that the JETS would SCORE once we kicked to them.
      INSANE to give them a chance. Why not try to score first since we had
      the opportunity???????

      MAKES ZERO SENSE! NONE whatsoever!! It CANNOT be rationalized.
      I don’t care how or who tries to spin it. I ain’t buying it.

      It almost looks like Bill was responding to some sort of threat on his family.
      (If any of you out there thinks that the MOB does not exist anymore, I have
      some swamp land in Florida to sell you. The Mob is alive and thriving quite well. IF you think they don’t have their hands in the NFL, think again!)

    1. I’m not so sure about that.
      I just looked at the 12Z NAM.

      It has .6 to .8 qpf while 850mb temperatures are below freezing.
      Yet, the snow map has ZILCH until the NH border.
      I don’t have access to the NAM 700MB temperatures, but they
      must go above freezing fairly quickly.

      That tells me that we would have quite a bit of Sleet for several hours before
      the transition. Even if the ratio were 1:1 that’s about 1/2 inch of sleet and a touch of snow before that.

  4. Gil Simmons was saying this morning this is more sleet and very little snow before everyone goes to rain.

    1. Very little snow more sleet/ mix. Should be all Rain in Boston by 10am and if this starts later even less mix.

      1. I’m more concerned with the ice and sleet and think if they materialize and timing is am rush, there could be a definite affect

  5. The HRRR model seems to be very slow this morning.

    The last run available is 9Z which is now quite old.

    Pissing me off.

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 51m51 minutes ago
    Classic freezing rain setup for Tuesday morning. A bit of sleet/snow accumulation early then ice! #FirstAlertCT

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    A.J. Burnett ‏@WxManAJB · 12h12 hours ago
    .@ryanhanrahan Any wonder why so much warm air aloft with Tue’s system? Air from the Caribbean in warm conveyor!

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
    Plenty of low level cold with this storm but way too much warmth above our heads for snow. Warm pattern!

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
    Latest computer guidance doesn’t show much snow falling in CT Tuesday. Looks like sleet and freezing rain will be the issue. #FirstAlertCT

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 15h15 hours ago
    Updated blog post about Tuesday’s wintry mix. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2015/12/27/wintry-mess-for-tuesday-morning/ … #FirstAlertCT

    View summary
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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 16h16 hours ago
    Not much snow Tuesday morning with mid levels temps >32F but plenty of sleet and some freezing rain.

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 17h17 hours ago
    “Warm ground” will have 0 impact this time of year. Untreated surfaces will be slick Tue AM. Not much snow but a messy mix.

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · 18h18 hours ago
    Winter weather advisory for all of CT except the immediate shore. @KaitMcGrathNBC will have more at 6!

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     Ryan Hanrahan Retweeted

    NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth · 22h22 hours ago
    At least EF3 damage found in Rowlett. @RowlettFire @RowlettTexas #dfwwx #holidaystorm #RowlettTornado

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    Darren Sweeney NBCCT ‏@DarrenSweeney · Dec 27
    The 2-4″ north is mostly for the hills,the lower end is likely, the higher end would be an exception. #FirstAlertCT

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    Greg Carbin ‏@GCarbin · Dec 26
    The weather map is sick! #severe #tornado #blizzard #flood. Working ’em all @NWSSPC tdy.

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    Eweather ‏@Eweather13 · Dec 25
    Awesome shot-Branford Point this Christmas am! Credit: Willing Ryan @StormHour @yourtake @ryanhanrahan @JimCantore

     Sunset Weather and USA Sunrise

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    Eweather ‏@Eweather13 · Dec 25  Higganum, CT
    Merry Christmas #sunrise as fog blankets the #CTRiver @StephanieAbrams @gilsimmons @GarettArgianas @StormHour

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    NY Metro Weather ‏@nymetrowx · Dec 24

    NY Metro Weather Retweeted NY Metro Weather
    Let’s take a moment to appreciate long range forecasting. Models had today’s warmth pegged 10 days in advance:

    NY Metro Weather added,

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    NY Metro Weather @nymetrowx Warm surge near Christmas may be more impressive than last weekend. Potential for temps 24+ F above normal:

    View conversation
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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · Dec 24

    Ryan Hanrahan Retweeted Hartford Courant
    This is a bizarre story.

    Ryan Hanrahan added,

    Hartford Courant @hartfordcourant .@colinmcenroe: How does a hit piece on a Las Vegas judge show up in New Britain? http://cour.at/1TjpOkJ

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    David Sones ‏@DavidSones · Dec 24
    Air conditioning in full effect on Xmas eve! Merry Xmas to the best weather guys on TV. @bobmaxon @ryanhanrahan

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · Dec 24
    This morning’s GYX sounding had an unreal +9C at 700mb. Holy moly!

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    Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan · Dec 24
    Willimantic made it to 70 today! 69 so far at BDL. #firstalertct

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    Having trouble posting a map meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan posted on his twitter page
    but NCAR WRF Ensembles bullish on freezing rain potential 0.5 in Litchfield Hills which is north of me and hopefully stays that way. Worcester area those ensembles look to be showing the same amount.
    I have never heard of NCAR or WRF and don’t know if there reliable.

  7. JJ, you broke Word Press with all of that, but thank you.

    The WRF is not bad.

    In looking at the guidance, Ct doesn’t have much chance at snow for sure.
    Up here, we could experience some before it changes to sleet.
    Along the coast, NO worries about freezing rain. Once sleet has finished it will
    go to straight rain here, no doubt about that.

    Just a question of how much snow/sleet falls. It looks to be more sleet than snow, that seems likely. Trying to get an accurate handle on that.

  8. Thanks TK !

    I wonder tomorrow, as the fairly weak secondary low develops and passes east of our area, if it will briefly back the surface winds in eastern Mass to the north. If there’s cold enough air remaining in southern NH and ME, perhaps surface temps may fall back towards 32F during the afternoon. Particularly for the Merrimack Valley, the north shore and maybe even the NW suburbs of Boston …..

    1. Always thinking there Tom.
      I suppose it is possible, but only if the cold air isn’t already
      scoured out prior to the Coastal circulation taking over.
      If there is nothing up there to pull down, doesn’t make a difference, does it?
      We shall see.

  9. Ocean effect cloudiness covering the Cape.

    I see on radar, returns to the west of where we area, but not seeing any flurries or sprinkles.

  10. Regarding the game….could be it was BBs decision. Could be it was a misunderstanding. No one can question slater was confused. Could be conspiracy. Could be other factors. The only thing we know for sure is that we don’t know. On to Miami!

    1. I’M Jaded and I suspect the worse. That game SMELLED from the get go.
      It smelled so badly that my wife could see what was going on. I had to listen to her the whole game complaining about how the Patriots weren’t trying.
      Now to be sure, some of that was due to the massive number of injuries they had, BUT a fair amount was due to a very clear lack of effort. Why? You be the judge.
      Did you notice the Pat’s defense lining up with a hug hole for the Jet’s running
      backs to easily pass through? WHY? Looked very odd to me.
      You think maybe some of the DBs were a tad tardy on their converage?
      WHY? You be the judge. Something was NOT right.

      Call it injuries if you like, but I saw something else going on.

      Nuff said. Onto Miami.

      1. Yes I know what he said. The whole situation still SMELLS very badly to me. I CANNOT for the life of me comprehend this one.

  11. I have to drive my son to the airport at about 6AM tomorrow morning.
    That ought to be fun!!! I am quite sure his flight to San Francisco will get off
    pretty much on time with only a minor delay at worse. At least I shouldn’t hit
    too much traffic at that hour or at least I hope. Then it will be the Ted Williams
    tunnel to the office.

    1. Hopefully, the roads will be OK and it will be just rain by the time you have to head into the airport.
      My son flew out of Logan this morning after an amazing week long visit!
      No matter the length of his stay, it always go by too quickly!

  12. Hi all!
    Tricky set up as winter is trying to move in while the pattern has and still is warm. Because of this, I would refrain from using any model derived snowfall map. Focus on how the thermal profile changes with time(forecast soundings), and wind direction especially for coastal areas. The NAM has sleet falling in boston at 12z tomorrow, but a 10+ knot torch off the ocean would likely melt the entire ice crystal.
    Watch out for enhanced precipitation to the west of the coastal front, which may be the Boston area for a short time prior to changeover, which should be quick and clean.

  13. Just returned to Boston. Much warmer here than up north, needless to say. I think that at the surface there’s a degree differential of at least 10 degrees between here and 90+ miles north. Areas north won’t be as impacted by warm easterly wind either. Hence, some significant accumulation up there tomorrow. I’d say zero to 1 inch in Boston, and all will wash away. And, > 3 inch accumulation in Massachusetts will likely occur in the northern border area away from the coast and west of Worcester. West of Boston to Worcester about 1-3 inches. Nothing at all south coast, CC, and the Islands.

  14. One football note. I agree with JP Dave. BB is great, but he makes mistakes like everyone else. If you win a coin toss in OT you always want the ball. Period. The reason is that by kicking off there’s a distinct possibility of never getting a chance to have the football. Sometimes BB’s outside the box thinking is off. How about the onside kick against Denver. Bizarre move, a real head-scratcher, just like yesterday’s coin toss decision. And no, there’s no way BB wants to play the Jets. The Jets have had success against the Pats, both in the regular and post-season. They have the toughest defensive front, excellent cornerbacks, always play well against the Patriots. I’d fear the Jets more than Pittsburgh or any other AFC team.

    1. Seems high, doesn’t it. Hope it happens. Mt. Wachusett should get something
      like 4 or 5 inches anyway. Perhaps they will keep most of it and get the season started.

  15. Next chance of wintry weather after this not until around the 12th 13th of January according to latest run of GFS.

  16. Thank you tk 🙂

    Looking like very little accumulation Boston south and east (under 1 inch of snow). Boston west (1-3 inches). Tomorrow by this time will all be a distant memory and be in the drain and reservoirs.

    As for the Patriots game, I’ll leave that for my 5 sports blogs. I’m not going to talk about the gfs on my sports blogs, and I won’t talk Patriots football on a weather blog. Hope everyone has a good day!! 🙂

  17. And the funny thing is the T and the news stations are making it sound like a blizzard is coming .

        1. You are so right, Sue! Chicago’s local media did much the same for their first snow event of the season!

  18. Future radar posted on Ed Vallee twitter page who is an energy meteorologist around 5am showing snow Boston north and west mix south shore and all of CT.
    He was the first meteorologist I saw on twitter mention about the warm 700 mb back on Christmas Eve.

  19. Precip appears to be a bit ahead of schedule, may start around midnight. Surface cold will be tough to dislodge, but 700mb warmth is going to present a major challenge for snowfall. Likely at least 6-8 hours of frozen precip for many away from the east coast and north of the CT/RI border, but much of it will be sleet. Not an easy forecast though. I’ll be interested in the 0z soundings tonight, those will give us a good idea of what’s going on above us, and can be compared against model forecasts to see whether we’re running any warmer or colder than forecast.

    1. 12Z Euro still had surface temp in Boston sub freezing at 7AM. I think
      even Boston may see an extended period of frozen.

    1. Notice the bulge of the freezing line heading up the coast and engulfing
      most of Boston and this is by 2AM. HRRR certainly does not agree
      with the Euro. 😀

  20. WxWatcher,
    related to what you posted.
    Look at this 14X HRRR snow map (based on 10:1 of course)

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    700MB temps pass go above freezing for Boston right aroun 7AM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3700_f22.png

    BUT 850mb temps remain below freezing at that hour, so the SLEET show would
    start around 7AM (IF this model is correct)

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3850_f22.png

    85MB temps still below freezing at 9AM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122814/t3/temp_t3850_f24.png

    That’s 4-6 inches down to Boston. Now I have no idea IF that takes into account SLEET? I think not. Therefore, even IF this model were correct, we’d have to knock
    down that 4-6 to at least 2-4 if not 1-3.

    1. According to the HRRR, the cold air Especially 850MB down to the surface
      will be difficult to erode, thus supporting WxWatchers post above.

  21. Appears it should be changing over to rain between 7-9am Boston southward. 9-11am just north and west of Boston. Just saw wbz and they have basically most of mass in the coating to 2 inch amount.

      1. I live just southwest of lowell in a town called Billerica Right on 495 but we usually have similar amounts to areas just to our north compared to those to the south. Southern Part of the Merrimack valley.

  22. I’m not sure Logan even sees an inch of frozen anything. I think when precip starts there the temperature is 31-32 degrees, and rising through the 30’s very early Friday morning even before sunrise.

  23. I can’t see this as a snowmaker for coastal areas. Even inland Massachusetts/CT/RI are going to have a tough time getting a couple of inches out of this, EXCEPT north of the Mass. border. Three problems: 1. Set-up is conducive to an east wind, which means mild given the ocean’s relatively high temperature; 2. Even if Boston were to stay below freezing at the surface until 9am, after perhaps a brief burst of snow it won’t be snowing in the early morning, it’ll be sleeting/freezing rain/raining with no accumulation; 3. The sleet may be short-lived, too. Why? The `cold’ dome is really not that cold and will easily be dislodged, even at the surface where the ground is hardly frozen.

    I do like the fact that we finally have some cooler/colder air to deal with the coming weeks. There will be other opportunities for snow. They may not show up on the latest GFS, but we all know how, for instance, clippers surprise us.

        1. I haven’t a clue. I have just been posting model output.

          We’ll certainly have a mess with sleet for at least awhile.
          There Will be a period of snow ahead of the sleet.

          Right now it looks like snow from a little after midnight
          until 6AM or so. Then sleet from 6 Am until about 9 AM.
          After that, it’s all rain.

          Impossible to say how much ends up on the ground.
          And even more difficult for me to separate out
          what I wish would happen and what will really happen.
          Also, which model(s) does one believe.

          Some models have the cold holding on longer, while others erode it more quickly. What to believe? What to dismiss?

          Blend them altogether and it looks like at least an inch
          or 2, perhaps a bit more. Even though I said that, it could easily end up LESS as often times the models
          have no clue how FAST the warmer air aloft will
          move in. However, that high is pretty cold.

          It’s a tough one and I am very thankful I do NOT have
          to make a public forecast. 😀 😀 😀

  24. I’m a big necn guy, and they have lowered Boston to 0-1 inch with a quick changeover, with most of accumulation in northern Mass.

      1. Everything I’ve seen for Boston south and east is 0-2 inches. Everything I’ve seen Boston northward and west of 128 is saying 1-4 inches. With rain after 7-9am. Idk maybe I’m missing something. Maybe tk can chime in. 🙂

        1. It depends upon which model(s) one believes coupled
          with their meteorological experience and knowledge.

          This one is tough. I wish the ocean weren’t so damn warm.

          Boston Bouy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 47.5 °F
          Stellwagen Bouy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.2 °F

          Comparatively speaking, that’s a Blow Torch out there!!

          The only thing that will prevent the coast from dramatically warming up instantly is that COLD high
          pressure area. BUT I have seen it warm up very very very fast when the wind turns on shore with any velocity
          at all. So we’ll wait and see.

          Boston could actually go over to rain while the upper
          atmosphere still supports snow.

          I could envision Boston, especially Logan, going over
          to plain rain and then STILL SLEETING when the upper air warms above freezing.

          1. Yesterday I was more concerned with the onshore torch instead of the 750mb torch for Boston. Haven’t been able to look at much today.

            1. The 700MB torch looks to stay unlit for us until 7 AM or so. So whatever we get will
              have to come before that. Now how much
              will the Ocean torch do? Depends much
              on the wind direction and speed and intensity of precip.

              HRRR looks to deliver some pretty intense precip, so that may inhibit the torch for a bit or at least significantly
              slow down the warm up process for awhile.

              We shall see.

              1. We will have to see for ourselves how much of an impact the onshore flow has on temps. I don’t trust a model given the circumstances.

                1. Understand that.
                  I’m just going by experience is all. We shall see. If precip is not intense, it will warm RAPIDLY.

  25. Although this is not complete for the entire area, the snow is certainly complete
    for our area.

    If I am not mistaken, this is back up from the 12Z run. Something is up???

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030

    Just for giggles, here is the 12Z run

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    Indeed, it is up and up significantly over the 12Z run. Hmmmm

    perhaps the HRRR is not out to lunch????????

  26. Eric fisher just said on wbz 1030 radio says coating to 2 inches for many, with the 2 inches closer to 128. Also said it will all be washed away. 🙂

    1. YUP. The GFS has been telling pretty much the same story for a week, although
      it backed off quite bit over the last day. This is really up from this morning’s
      run.

      Wouldn’t it be something? One way or the other, it shall be interesting.

      1. You never know. I see some subtle hints that the no snow forecasts could go south. Still won’t be looking at anything too big, but I think most of us wake up to a white ground in the morning.

        28F here in Wrentham. Brrrr. Been at or below freezing all day. Combined with the overnight timing on the precip, the warm ground may not be much of a factor IF snow does fall.

        1. IF we stay below freezing all night, then I think you
          are correct. Frozen precip will have no trouble accumulating, whatever should fall. 😀

          Look at the surface maps. I see subtle signs that the coastal may develop sooner than previously modeled.
          I could be out to lunch and suffering from wishful thinking.

  27. Boston is currently 30 degrees with a dew point of 7. Wind is from the NNE at 10 knots. Let the battle begin!

    1. That low dew point is also noteworthy… First battle will be just getting anything at all to fall. May waste most of the “cold period” just trying to saturate the column.

      1. Good point, but once it really gets going, shouldn’t take too long.
        We’ll miss out on much of the pre light stuff.

      2. Keep an eye on that dew point, good indicator on how effective that onshore wind component is. Loss of daytime heating will limit the amount of vertical mixing so dew point will likely rise as the onshore flow continues.

  28. At first glance, the Winter Weather Advisory might be a bit too widespread and should not include Boston and especially SE MA but after thinking about it, the sleet alone probably warrants it.

    And I agree with you JPD…the water temps are too blowtorch, even for this time of year. Hopefully they go down next month, but I suspect they will remain above normal regardless. This is not a year for a “cold” ocean…maybe next winter.

  29. Sorry. I’m behind on everything today.

    Dave, Sue, Vicki, and Tom…
    Hadi requested your emails. Is it ok if I send him the ones that you are using to post here?

    1. When I get home from the Cape, I will send you (TK) an email I use far more often. Then, when you can, please feel free to give that one to Hadi. This should be sometime Wednesday.

  30. Many will see some white on the ground, but it’s almost inconsequential given that at or near the coast the snow and glop that make things look white will be washed away rather quickly by mid to late morning. I also do not think Boston’s coast will get much white at all. Perhaps Allston, Brighton, JP, Hyde Park, but at the immediate coast this will be primarily a sleet/rain event, I believe. We’ll see. I hope I’m wrong and wake up to a winter wonderland.

    1. I think your right Joshua for many, granted for most it will be a coating to an inch or 2 tops, but you will not need the plows or shovels, some salt early on. 🙂

  31. Interesting discusion of weather by Bob Henson (sp?) weather underground on wgbh. He commented on the tornadoes in TX, specifically Dallas which is strongest in Dallas history for December. Also he said a strong El Niño is not affected greatly by climate change but it is the peaks of El Niño that are more likely to be affected in warming climate. Also, December is known to have warm weather during strong El Ninos. When you get el Ninos in a warming atmosphere which we are in, you can expect the warmest years to be El Niño years.

  32. I know tk said hrrr numbers are a
    bit high
    But the hrrr is not backing down at this late
    Hour. 22z hrrr shows 4-6 inches for boston.
    Pretty consistent with gfs.
    Makes me think the main engine for
    The hrrr is gfs derived. Only difference
    Is resolution??? Is that the case?
    In any case it has snow through
    8 AM.

    I am mobile else i’d post links.

    1. Ratios are not going to be 10:1
      Model is likely having issues resolving the sst anomalies just offshore which impacts 2m temp output, which is a big component with those snowfall maps.

  33. Hiya blog buddies!

    Headed up your way on Wednesday (I think I mentioned I moved down to NC). Rebooked myself from tomorrow. The airlines get so sensitive about the smallest weather systems these days!

    Miss the snow. The El Niño pattern has made the Carolinas particularly wet so far this season. The grass is always greener, right? Hope you’re all doing well!

    PS – one word on football. Living in Charlotte now, after yesterday’s loss to the Falcons, all the panthers fans have inexplicably disappeared. Can’t say that about loyal Pats fans! 🙂

    1. Hi DS. Nice to see you here. I am not as convinced about Boston fans. They are on a winning high. But certainly would not disappear after a loss although might think it is the end of the world ;). Enjoy our area while you are here!!

  34. 0z soundings are just in. Maybe TK can confirm this, but to me it looks much warmer than modeled up towards 700-750mb, already above freezing. A serious sleet storm on the way, but not snow. HRRR keying in on this now as well, showing basically all sleet for most of MA.

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KCHH&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640×480&pg=web

    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/upa/gen-raobplt.cgi?id=KOKX&pl=skewt&cu=la&pt=parcel&size=640×480&pg=web

    1. It is indeed, and this is what I meant when I pointed out some of the model shortcomings in this situation. Less snow, more sleet.

      Scott is correct though about the cooling that will take place initially with precipitation.

  35. Well almost into 2016 and I have yet to turn on my oil heat (been using my AC heat pump). Saving a ton of money! Hope the weather keeps up!

    1. We have had heat on in night in front of house only. But we had first delivery of oil last Thursday since mid August. I don’t recall how many gallons but it was not near empty

      1. Yeah they topped me off a few weeks ago from my last fill up in the spring so I am starting “fresh.” Going to monitor my oil. That mild winter we had many years ago I ran the oil for only a few weeks the whole winter! Hopefully you won’t have any leaks this year! I know last winter was hard on your house.

          1. Electric heat is what kills your bill. My heat pump costs me about 50 a month and I run it as often as I would oil. So it’s way cheaper than oil. My unit is new and high efficiency so that helps.

              1. It is part of the outside condenser on a central air unit. You simply turn the thermostat from cool to heat and it runs as normal but blows heat. It basically works in reverse from AC… The heat pump extracts heat from the outside air and pumps it into the house. Even tonight at 28 degrees I could keep my house at 70 easily. However once the temp gets to 25 or lower the heat pump works too hard for little benefit. That’s when I cutover to oil.

  36. Vicki, you make a good point about the possibility of icing in the early hours of this storm. I do think that the roads will be particularly bad west of 128, out by 495 and parts of the pike. Even if there is no snow at all in most of Massachusetts, sleet and freezing rain are actually worse than snow to deal with, I think. I know that my car says so!

    This said, because there is no cold air behind this storm, everything will wash away and the roads will just be wet around SNE by noontime. Even Framingham will be pushing 40F by then, and possibly higher later in the afternoon. We’re due for a thaw after all. I mean seriously, it’s been cold for nearly 24 hours. That’s way too long. …

    Snowlovers, do not despair. A rather consistent pattern of seasonable cold will be upon us by New Year’s Day (good for the ice sculptures). I really do think we’ll get a storm or two the coming couple of weeks. Nothing to write home about, but still it’ll feel like winter.

    1. Good comment as always. That’s what worries me, Joshua. I know we will get snow eventually. This is New England. I’ve been worried for a while that with this pattern, we may…note may please 🙂 …. Tend to see icing rather than snow. I hope I am wrong.

      Washing it away won’t erase the risk before it warms

  37. Judah and Eric had a great conversation there and it was a good example of how short form tweets can be misunderstood. But they fixed that up quickly.

    I think Eric is half right. We’re going to have a “colder”, that is more average first half of January before a milder back half. The cold will return balanced with milder interludes in February and March. Not looking for all that stormy a pattern, however.

    I agree with Judah on the “warm” Winter overall but the different story (in terms of temps) later in the season.

    Also, y’all should pay attention to what Scott has to say with his analysis. He’s the real deal when it comes to Winter forecasting. 🙂

    1. Judah is a professional and may want to learn how to convey using fewer words. Eric did what I’ve seen him do well before and brought the dialog back to polite. In the end both did well.

      I am really enjoying reading Scotts posts.

  38. Finally got to take a look at a few things…
    Start time on precip looks to be a lot earlier than what was shown yesterday, around 1AM for Boston.
    Coastal front will waste no time moving through Boston, so changeover looks to happen a few hours after precip begins, which will be snow.
    Tuesday morning commute should be just fine for the I-95 belt around Boston.

    1. Agree again, and one place I got this wrong was delaying the onset for too long. But no matter, the cold won’t hold.

      1. KBOS already reporting light snow. Pretty intense band of sleet over CT, which may support moderate snowfall rates once it reaches Boston assuming whatever remaining dry air doesn’t gobble it up.

        The latest KBOX AFD is a bunch of mashed potatoes, which some will have fall from the sky.

  39. Current thinking is under 1 inch of snow in all of Metro Boston up through Seacoast NH, building up to around 2 inches outside 495 with some higher amounts as you head into interior southern NH. More sleet will fall, with a changeover from snow to sleet/rain probably BEFORE dawn for Metro Boston. The short range guidance, particularly the HRRR, is going to get burned, no pun intended, by the ocean.

        1. That isn’t actually true. Meteorology is the study of weather, and in this age of technology it includes learning which models to well in which instances. It’s not about giving up on a model altogether, except maybe the NOGAPS. 😛

  40. Just heard on a national new station, not that says much,, but specified Boston will see no snow, with sleet on the onset rapidly changing to rain by the morning commute because of ocean temps near 50 degrees.

      1. And sometimes the local mets aren’t either . I was very disappointed to see certain mets throwing out numbers on Christmas eve including Harvey my favorite TV met.

    1. Sounds like they just reviewed the 00z NAM. I still think it will snow for a couple hours, not sure how hard it does snow.

  41. Morning commute is relative. Based on TKs and Scotts comments, I having more confidence that heading here to Boston may be safer. But commutes often begin at 4:00 or 5:00. How is that looking? Thank you.

  42. The 00z nam run has basically nothing in the Boston to providence corridor, seriously… Like a brief shot a snow and sleet rapidly changing to rain by morning commute. Tk your thoughts????

    1. Trace is most likely, up to 0.5 inch is POSSIBLE but it would have to start with a burst of moderate snow, like right away.

  43. TK, if what we get the coming two weeks is just average cold and the latter half of the month reverts to mild, will we get any nights this winter below 15F? 2011-2012 had a few cold shots (I recall Boston getting to single digits twice that winter), as did 2001-2002. Will this be a winter without any true cold shot? Note, I do not consider low to mid 30s during the day cold, nor do I consider low to mid 20s at night cold.

    1. We’ll have some very cold nights, especially in February. There may even be a few in January too despite a milder second half. We’re not going back to December’s pattern.

  44. HRRR is definitely too high. 8-10″ is never happening north of the Pike. 2″ max for all of Massachusetts before we get a ton of ice(away from the coast, at least).

  45. You can tell by NWS’s 9:59PM discussion that they are worried their forecast is not going to verify. Too many what-if’s and not guaranteed aspects. They’re worried that the dry air near the ground may delay the meaningful precipitation by 1 to 2 hours, and they are not sure about the timing of the warm intrusion at mid levels and have split the difference between the faster warming NAM and too cold GFS in the early part of the storm. That’s a gamble given how much evidence there is against the GFS.

  46. Meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT nailed it when he said little if any snow and this would be a sleet to rain situation.

  47. KBOS already reporting light snow. Pretty intense band of sleet over CT, which may support moderate snowfall rates once it reaches Boston assuming whatever remaining dry air doesn’t gobble it up.

    The latest KBOX AFD is a bunch of mashed potatoes, which some will have fall from the sky.

  48. Charlie, I was thinking. You gave up on the HRRR years ago, but it only became operational for its first Winter in 2012-2013. Just how many years ago did you give up on it? Before it was programmed? 😛

    In addition, though not perfect, the model nailed a few snowfalls last Winter. It’s not always a “snowlovers dream” and it’s certainly not always wrong. This time, it will be, but if you know the reasons why, then as a meteorologist you can know to not buy its solution. It’s merely a simulation generator.

      1. But that is not true. It has performed very well on several events. As I said, the key is knowing WHEN to believe it and when not to.

        If you want, I can dig up some examples of excellent forecasts by it. My friend and colleague keeps a record of model performance.

    1. It will come down a few degrees briefly when the precip. kicks in, then very gradually go back up.

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