Monday Forecast

248 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)…
The tricky trough produced a good swath of 2-6 inches of snow across much of eastern MA and nearby areas overnight but it is winding down first thing tomorrow and only passing snow showers are possible during the day as Arctic air arrives from the west. The rest of the forecast is unchanged from yesterday. By the end of the week we’ll be watching the approach of a storm from the southwest which threatens to bring a more significant winter weather event here.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with snow ending but a few additional snow showers possible. Partly to mostly sunny but isolated snow showers still possible this afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 20s. Wind variable early but becoming W increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts midday through afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind WNW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)…
Storm threat for January 23 with any combination of precipitation possible depending on storm track. Even a pass of the storm mostly out to sea to the south still possible. Improving weather January 24. Fair January 25. Risk of unsettled weather January 26-27.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)…
Mainly fair weather, variable temperatures but an overall milder trend for this period.

248 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK for the Holiday update.
    I’m going out to measure. From looking out the window it looks like
    we got 3-5 inches.

    Does anyone have totals.

    Be back in a few with a report. Watch it only be 1 1/2 inches. 😀 😀 😀

  2. Here is your official JpDave Measurement for JP:

    4.25 inches

    Nice!!

    Absolutely beautiful out there.

    Dew flakes still gently falling.

  4. Ok, all, how about the Euro run total snowfall? Inlcudes last night, the 1/23 event
    and now a new event, one TK has been mentioning, 1/27. Snow haters, do not cry.
    This shows a whopping 36 inches for Boston and points SW:

    Click on it to enlarge

    http://imgur.com/FzCStFw

  5. Nice little Norlun Event there. One just never knows with these. I loved it.

    Was out to Luciano’s in Wrentham last night for a wonderful dinner. Was back just in time to catch Downton Abbey and then the new Masterpiece, Mercy Street which
    has potential. Roads home were a bit tricky, but manageable. Most snow here fell
    after Midnight.

  6. NWS comments regarding next weekend’s event:

    ALL OPTIONS REMAIN OPEN AT THIS POINT. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
    STORM IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY…ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT WITH
    ANY LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM PASSES
    OUT TO SEA OR…IF IT TAKES A MORE INLAND TRACK…THERE COULD BE
    A WINTRY MIX. STAY TUNED TO UPDATED FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST.

  7. Measured 3″ on the nose this morning in Sharon. Logan ended up with 3.1″ bringing the season total to….??

    I was surprised at the fluffiness of the snow since it began falling in borderline temps.

        1. Look on the bright side, we didn’t get SKUNKED, a
          term I use when fishing and don’t catch anything. 😀

          AND it is something from which to build with future
          events.

  8. Maybe this weekend’s storm will set the pattern for a few weeks and give us a parade of storms. One can only hope!

    1. Thanks Ace. I am extremely confident in my measurement of 4.25 inches
      here in JP. 😀 Seems to fit right in.

  11. 4inches on the nose in Groveland…very light and fluffy…hard not to get excited about this weekends potential if you love snow

  13. Thanks TK.
    I missed all that snow and only ended up with a little bit of coating with a snow squall that came through around 5am.
    Hopefully one of the two systems the EURO and GFS in the next two weeks have give us snow and we don’t get skunked.

  14. TWC is beginning the HYPE for next weekend’s storm

    The Weather Channel
    44 mins ·
    Forecast models are picking up on something big. Here’s what you should know.

    Winter Storm Central
    Significant Winter Storm Possible in East Late This Week

  15. I always get these bad feelings with models are in this much agreement something could go wrong. I am hoping it doesn’t.
    If what the EURO and GFS saying there will be no more snowfall deficits from D.C. to Boston once the weekend POTENTIAL storm is gone.

  16. Here is something from DT. At first I thought he was pissing about the Hype.
    Nope, he is contributing to the Hype and heaping praise on the Euro!

    Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos.
    7 hrs ·
    *** ALERT !! ** ALERT !!** ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAJOR (possibly Historic ) SNOWSTORM FOR JAN 22-23 for MOST of VA & MD eastern half of WVA central/ eastern PA all of NJ NYC southern NY and southern half of New England
    0z Monday ( early Mon am) EUROPEAN COMES IN COLDER ALL SNOW FOR RIC … shows 22″ for RIC !! …. 26″ for DCA …20 “for CHO
    ..16 -18″ for ROA LYH 30″ over BAL …12″ lower MD eastern shore 6-10” for hampton roads SEE IMAGE #1
    What we are looking at …. according to the European model is a historic snowstorm. The European model continues to show run after run almost the exact same scenario. This is the model which correctly forecasted hurricane Joaquin to NOT hit the East Coast …which correctly forecasted SANDY to hit Atlantic City 8 days before made landfall. I could go on and on about the European model’s superior performance when it comes to East Coast winter storms and hurricanes. Unlike the other weather models… the European model and it’s ensemble continues to show the same scenario for the past 7 model runs. As we get closer to the event this model’s consistency continues to be extremely impressive.
    IMAGE #2 is the ACTUAL snow map from a huge snowstorm for FEB 1983 Also a strong el nineo winter

      1. No he didn’t.
        I remember last year with the blizzard at the end of January last year when he was on the air that day he thought something would go wrong and it did. The storm was 100 miles further east and a good part of CT good a lot less snow totals than forecasted.
        Ryan to me always looks for something that could go wrong in each storm.

  21. 3.6 inches in billerica bring season total to 7.8 inches, If what the Euro and GFS are saying for now happens most peoples snowfall predictions could go down the tubes as i think there will be more than just one storm this season

  23. I am back from tornado land, Florida. And I’m looking at more hype about a potential weekend storm than the hype I saw around the tornadoes!

  24. The GFS handled this Norlun pretty well. Sure it was not perfect, but it was good
    guidance for forecasting. It had a pretty good swath of 3-4 inches which was pretty
    damn good. Sure it missed the few 5 inch areas, but it performed well.

    Euro also had 3-4 inches and performed well.

    Now will they perform well with the weekend’s event? time will tell.

    1. They did decently well. I did not. These inverted troughs are my enemy. 😛

      When I go conservative they produce. When I pull out the stops they are a no-show. Can’t win! 😛

    1. 😀
      Mr. Norlun delivered. The HRRR was all over the map yesterday.

      The other models won out in the end. 😀

    2. More than an inch that’s for sure. Got up to go to work thinking I would have to do a light cleanup…had to do the whole thing and roof to boot.

  26. I am jealous of all of you getting that snow and only getting a snow squall that produced a little coating. Hoping to make up for it next weekend.

        1. Because it still at least 5 days out anything can happen. How many times have storms been a week in advance and never materialize. I am not saying it will miss just saying may not be a nearly as big as advertise. I am not trying to rile people up I know how much snow means to you. Lord help anybody who might say a storm may not happen. Just a opinion/ feeling I have.

  28. I have to say it’s the biggest thing I hate about winter…the hype. I mean, it snows here every year. Yet every time a big storm comes around it’s something that apparently has never happened before…or they make it out to be some once-in-a-lifetime event…or some result of human meddling. You would think – if you read the headlines on some of these sites – that we lived in an area that never snows. I know I am beating a dead horse here but that’s my morning vent 🙂

  30. The timing of this storm could not be worst …..

    Full moon Saturday night.

    High tides Saturday and Sunday at 11ft, Saturday night at 10ft. Centered around noon and midnight.

    As being projected, a storm surge of 3ft is very possible. This would result in 13ft or 14ft high tides which usually translate to moderate or major coastal flooding.

    I am quite concerned already.

      1. Particularly for our area Sue. Whether a its all snow or some combo of rain or snow, I don’t think that might be our biggest impact.

        Wind along with possible wind impacts and coastal issues.

        Also, may be a multiple high tide cycle hitter, as it seems like the low slows in its eastward movement as it passes south of us. Longer duration system.

        Should be an interesting week of watching the trends.

        1. Certainly cause for concern for this area. Hopefully the folks in Scituate and Green Harbor will stay in tuned as the week goes on. Those coastal areas are so vulnerable.

    1. Yup, max potential well to the south and west. Reminds me of those storms in 2009-2010 in the mid-atlantic.

  32. In terms of snowfall, every model projection I’ve seen since the storm showed up on our radar has had this being a mid-atlantic type jackpot storm (DC, Philly, southern NJ). Not saying we don’t get a lot of snow, but I don’t think anyone in NE will be in the jackpot area with this one.

  33. Those cities I mentioned above Philadelphia, Baltimore, and D.C. IF that run of the GFS verifies would have above normal snowfall for the winter with just one storm.
    GFS wants to deliver that classic I -95 storm

    1. True, but EURO still has jackpot in mid-atlantic even though its showing more than the GFS showed. Also, 12Z GFS on instant weather maps IMO uses the most accurate ratio algorithm.

  36. 12z GFS is widespread 12-18 inches which is in my opinion is a big storm for SNE in any winter season.

  40. Maybe the frustrating thing from my point of view is my precip forecast was only off by a couple tenths of an inch melted which is immediately 2-3 inches off on snow. 😉

  41. Wow just had a giant anticyclonic snow devil cross the parking lot I’m in here in Reading. 🙂

  42. Total Logan snowfall to date 2015 = 5.5″
    Total Logan snowfall to date 2016 = 4.3″

    I find it amazing that there is no real difference to date and assuming that we get all of the weekend storm, we will be heading in the exact same direction toward record breaking snows…and in an El Nino year no less.

  43. Nice to see snow on the ground. I was away this weekend, in somewhat warmer climes.

    What a difference a couple of weeks makes. I think that most (myself included) thought the latter half of January would revert to El Nino based `warmth.’ Well, I believe that the second half of January will actually be colder than the first, and may turn out slightly colder than our average latter half of January.

    On football, interesting that the four home teams won this week, and the four home teams lost last week. I don’t think that has ever happened before.

    Belichick is great (best in the business), but I believe he has made glaring errors this year, in my opinion (including the pass play that almost turned into an interception late in the game on Saturday – maybe this was McDaniels’ call, either way it was unnecessarily risky). I think his most egregious mistake was not playing to win against the Jets or Dolphins to secure homefield advantage. The Patriots never win in Denver, even when they play better than the Broncos. I don’t think they’ll win this year, either. Their record in Denver since the beginning of time is really bad. Most teams have trouble there. Heck, I thought Pittsburgh outplayed the Broncos, but they lost. This is often what seems to happen in Colorado. I don’t think it’s Manning who will beat the Patriots. It’s those pesky running backs. Denver always runs well against the Patriots.

    3. Did you see Denver last night? They were terrible…unable until the end to stop a team that was badly injured. There is a zero chance the Pats lose this game.

  44. I am pleasantly surprised at the fluffiness of the snow considering that the temps got no lower than 27-28. I always assumed that temps had to go below 25 or so.

    Anyway, nice easy shoveling to say the least. 😀

    1. We have 2 layers …. The bottom inch is thick and crusty. It was about 35F when the precip started last night.

      The top 2-3 inches is fluffy.

  46. After all the smoke clears, 18-24 from dc to Philadelphia, 14-20 NYC, 8-14 Boston, wouldn’t suprise me if many of these locales are all on the lower end of accumulation spreads. Long way to go. I believe tk is hinting at a euro that is over doing accumulation. 🙂

    1. It really was remarkable. I watched that spot have almost zero snow coverage last night on radar and thought it was just a radar error.

  48. Forecast as of today for Sunday afternoon’s game in Denver is mild, near 50 degrees at game time dropping into the 40’s throughout the game. Makes sense since there will be a trough in the east and ridging in the west.

  49. Tom was mentioning issues at the coast earlier.
    Here is a tweet from Eric Fisher
    Also a slow moving system with a full moon. Coastal areas should monitor updates for high surf/flooding potential.

  51. Not sure what it means for precip/snowfall, but the track from the 12Z euro looks to have come a bit west and slightly weaker. Disclaimer: instant weather maps is terrible with the euro so we’ll have to wait to see a better output

  53. Here are the tracks of the weather models I have access to. Its towards the middle of my blog.

    The lines represents the model tracks. They are color coded. What each color line represents is on the top left.
    Two maps. One of the left shows the track coming from the gulf coast area. Shows a general track but when you go to the map on the right, can see differences in the models.
    https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/

    Also, I made it so that, you do not need to use your email in order to comment. If you still do, please tell me.

    still a lot of time for this storm. Lot can change.

        1. based on these latest runs I think the models are not picking up some possible effects of the warm ocean water

    2. That’s pretty cool matt, thanks! Interesting, the GFS and EURO ensemble means have the track further south and east

  54. Mid-Atlantic jackpot (2-4′ VA, WV, MD), but the 12z Euro still shows a good 12-18″ of snow for most of SNE (on a 10:1 ratio), favoring areas further south/east. That seems to be the theme right now. Mid-Atlantic looks to get clobbered, and we’re “on the bubble”, this won’t be a New England jackpot event but could still be a major snowstorm.

      1. That run was the furthest west from the euro so far. Shifts the jackpot out of the big cities and into the mountains of mid-atlantic

  55. I’m guessing this would be a wet, pasty snow (even inland) for the weekend storm. The 850mb temps are not excessively cold.

    2. Have to look at the temperature in the snow growth zone, say aroun 700 MB or so, perhaps a tad higher.

      700 mb temps about -6 C during height of storm. So I have no clue what that does to the snow ratio. I am thinking it is cold enough aloft to keep it
      “close” to the 10:1 ratio. I certainly could be way wrong on this.

        1. Really nice chart. Do you have a link to the parent
          website? Else I’ll try to work backwards. Thanks

  57. This will be a miller A, so it makes sense we’re not in the jackpot area. This thing will have reached peak intensity before it gets here.

      1. Interesting, thanks. You’re right, has the looks of a hybrid as it doesn’t truly come out of the gulf as one entity.

  58. IIRC 12-18″ was the general total for SNE for the Jan. 7-8, 1996 storm, perhaps a similar track this time as well?

  59. If the 12z EURO were ever correct at 240 hrs, it would be sunny and 35F in Boston and potentially snowing and near 35F at the Georgia/Florida border.

  60. Outside cleanup done. 🙂
    Now for a hot shower and making coffee then I’ll sit and figure out what’s next.

    Charlie your 1 inch Cape and coatings elsewhere made my bad forecast look good. Thanks. 😉

  61. Philip… Denver for Sunday, variably cloudy, maybe a flurry, upper 30s. Weather not a factor.

        1. HAHA I wouldn’t doubt it. The media is already fawning over Manning even going so far as to say play for play Manning outperformed Brady this weekend. What a joke.

          1. Imagine Roger having to hand the trophy to the team he tried to destroy…

            I know we have to get by Denver, and then get by whoever we’d face in the big game. But imagine…

  62. Quick points…

    * Did I ever tell you how much I love advecting Arctic air masses? This is one of my favorite kinds of days. Makes the missing of the snow amounts hurt much less. 🙂

    * Wind/cold Tuesday-Wednesday. Still cold but more tranquil Thursday.

    * Clouds increase Friday. Should have a “snow sky” by late afternoon. You know, the slate grey overcast. Only way this won’t happen is if the system is a lot slower or further south, then we’ll just have a shield of high, thin clouds.

    * Early feeling is moderate to major snow Friday night through Saturday evening (timing still needs tweaking). Rain may get involved favoring Cape and Islands. Not sure yet about the eastern coastal areas but we must keep in mind how warm the water is. It’s edging down, but still a few degrees above normal.

    * Windy/cold and snow showers for Sunday. Fair and tranquil Monday, but chilly.

    * Next storm threat comes in the January 26-28 time frame. It does not necessarily mean we have 3 stormy days there. It means that I feel the next threat is there. And it can feature any kind or all kinds of precipitation (rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow) based on the type of pattern we’re in.

    * Pattern becomes less favorable for snow events heading into early February for a while and it may turn quite mild at times, but NOT A RETURN TO DECEMBER PATTERN.

    * Cold/dry pattern after that but not without a couple storm threats.

  63. Have a look at this 6Z DGEX run. (yes I know it is an extension of the NAM and out
    this far one has to question its reliability) But humor me and look at it.

    You should be able to place you mouse over an hour and watch the progression of
    this.

    IF and I truly say IF this came to be, YIKES along the coast and we’ll need
    Front end loaders for the snow back from the coast.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html

      1. I thought so. Wouldn’t that be something.

        Next run of this will be available somewhere around 6Pm or so. 😀

    1. I’m getting confused by what is considered hype. Isn’t his headline true? And I read the post (quickly to be sure since I depend on weather from here), but his words seemed honest. He even says before the hype begins and points out this is way early and everything might change.

      1. True. I am not sure. Perhaps it’s not even too early yet.
        Btw, I don’t trust anything Eliasen says. But I am very fussy.
        I listen to Eric, Barry, Harvey and Matt. I’ll watch others, but
        these are my go to guys. (aside from TK, of course).

  65. Too early to predict snow amounts from a storm that still needs to come together. I think that we can throw numbers out there, but it is way too early to do so with precision. A couple of things to keep in mind: Ocean is relatively warm, and warmer still in the mid-Atlantic. I think this may have two effects, one would be to limit coastal amounts and shift the rain/snow line west or produce very wet snow at the coast, two would be strengthening of the low as it moves up the coast. With this in mind, plus the full moon (tides, etc …) I am more concerned about this storm than any last winter. We could have significant coastal damage, beach erosion, flooding, and heavy wet snow all along I-95, regardless of precipitation type. While early indication may be for more snow from DC to NYC than SNE, don’t discount the fact that this storm may strengthen off the mid-Atlantic and have some significant fetch and reach as it approaches east of CC/Nantucket. I would never bet against Boston getting more snow than any major city to our south. I realize that there have been times when they got more. But, historically, we’ve had more.

    Denver weather next week favors Denver. It’s too bad it’s not cold. I thought the Pats handled the Broncos fairly well in the cold/snow back in late November, but a muffed punt and questionable officiating gave the win to Denver. In any case, Denver is the one of the hardest – if not hardest – places for the Patriots to play and win. They’re an opportunistic team, well-coached, good defense, solid running game (which for some reason kills the Patriots, maybe because there are two good backs). Notice, I did not include Manning as an advantage, because I don’t think he is anymore. But, he’s got several excellent weapons to go to, who tend to wreak havoc on Patriot DBs. The Patriots are a good team, but don’t impress me nearly as much as they did earlier this season. On defense, they gave up too much against a plain vanilla offense (Chiefs). On special teams, they’re not the same shut-down unit they were. On offense, Brady is great, but he now has zero running game to support him, and lots and lots of dropped passes, including Edelman. I love Edelman. Think he’s the most underrated receiver in NFL, but for some reason he’s got a case of Lafell-like drops, some of which are dangerously close to being costly turnovers.

    1. Words of Wisdom.

      It is too early to know for sure, but this system is loaded with potential and
      MOISTURE.

      Could be routine 6-12 inch snow storm. Could be major 12-18 inch
      and there is even a chance it could be Colossal. We just don’t know.
      It could still pass out South of us, but that is looking less and less likely.
      I’d actually be more concerned about a close pass to the coast and rain
      along the coast. We shall see. “more concerned” as someone who wants
      snow. 😀

    1. Wow, even the 18Z NAM of all things at 84 hrs is consistent with position and strength with the GFS and EURO

  67. TK, I respectfully disagree on weather not being a factor in the Denver game. I sincerely think good weather favors the Broncos, at least in their home stadium, and with Manning as QB. The Patriots under the BB/TB regime may be the best team in snow and cold that I’ve ever seen. At home, on the road, they play very well in difficult conditions. I realize that they also generally play well in good conditions, but for some reason not in Denver. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m hoping the Patriots will win and go on to take the Superbowl, if only just to embarrass Mr. Roger Goodell (whose officials failed to even bring ball gauges to one of the playoff games yesterday).

    1. Imagine all the press coverage if Brady was accused of using HGH. Funny how that story disappeared even though they know his wife received shipments of it from the guy who broke the story.

      2. You are 100% correct. The NFL is laughable, in this regard. Not the game – it’s a wonderful spectacle most of the time. But, the `leadership’ and organization. Unfortunately, the media bias in favor of Manning (lord knows why, he’s not as good as Brady, and his ads are not funny) plays into this. Commentators drool over Manning.

    2. The problem the Pats have in Denver is weather related, sort of.

      They are sucking wind because of the altitude. They can’t get enough ozegyn to play their style of football. It is not talked about enough. It is a real factor. They just are not used to it. I’ve heard people say it can take months to get used to it.

      Just my 2 cents.

    3. Joshua, don’t forget the muffed punt which could very well have been weather related…not that that should be an excuse. I want the best field conditions possible. Hopefully the officials won’t be the deciding factor either and call a good game.

        1. And so you should Joshua since they have never won a playoff game in Denver, even before BB was head coach here.

  68. As long as the weekend storm stays S/E of the Cape, I really can’t imagine any mix or rain north of Plymouth in spite of the above normal water temps.

  69. Yes ace master only an inch I was told fell right in my area, 🙂
    Yes Ik your just busting, it’s ok, I got thick skin, all fun 🙂 🙂
    Glad to be in Bermuda for it

  71. I do not understand where DT is coming from with that the gfs is out to lunch, It honestly been the more accurate and also the euro went to the gfs this time lol

    1. I’d take it and be very happy.

      Looks windy with this run. Tom’s coastal concerns would be very real indeed.

  74. Eric showed a map that highlights NYC to Roanoke a sure bet for any big snow with SNE still “uncertain”. If this is going to be more of a Mid-Atlantic deal then it should mean most if not all of SNE will stay mostly snow. This could mean an (almost) OTS pass for us as it is. No way any warm ocean air can get involved IMO.

  75. Latest run of DGEX keeps storm system just South of us.

    Although that model cannot be trusted at all, it is, however, a possible solution.

    We shall continue to monitor. Next up, the 0Z runs. 😀

  76. Latest 1″+ Snow for Boston:

    1. 2/14/2007 (17.1″)
    2. 1/29/1928 (20.8″)
    3. 1/17/2016 (???)
    4. 1/16/2012 (9.3″)
    5. 1/15/1914 (39.4″)

    Note the numbers in parentheses are total seasonal snowfalls. Interesting if weekend storm brings most if not all for the season? We will see.

      1. I posted Stats? I don’t think it was I. But you’re welcome anyway.
        I only posted Snow for Logan .9 + .3 and + 3.1
        😀

    2. Boston is going to get nearly half their seasonal snow in one storm. Total 25-35 for the season. Will it be the next event? We’ll see, but I don’t think so.

      1. You have been saying that all along.

        BUT you do not think it will be this event?
        You think a larger system sometime in February, eh?

      2. Was going to ask if you are still on board with your seasonal snow amounts…sounds like you are! I approve…better than 105″ or whatever it was last year.

  78. JPD…I was referring to TE’s blog on the WBZ site that you posted earlier. 😀

    I now believe that there maybe a correlation between a late 1″+ Boston snow event and total seasonal snowfall. As for last winter, Boston received its first inch plus snow back in November.

      1. Late 1″+ plus Boston snows likely mean below normal seasonal snows. I probably should have mentioned that specifically in my post above. I figured the stats in parentheses would speak for themselves. It will be interesting if it continues this season. 😉

        1. Oh I understood that very well, I thought you were going to present more data as that is an awfully small sample
          for which to base a correlation.

          Let’s see what happens the rest of the Winter and then
          revisit it.

  79. After reading Matt’s posts, I took a look at Today’s ensembles for
    Euro, GFS and CMC. And Matt correctly has been pointing out that the ensemble means have been more off shore than the operational runs for ALL 3 models. As Matt
    has been pointing out, this should give us pause.

    There is still time and certainly a chance for a block buster storm.
    There is still a chance that it passes more South and East and grazes us, OR
    gives us a light to moderate event.

    0Z C’mon down!!!

    1. Tj, glad you asked because in answering your question, at least on the GFS, I see
      some real outliers. Here are 2 maps, ensemble members pressure centers.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016011818/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016011818/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

      Here is the CMC. Don’t have the this feature for the Euro.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016011812/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

    1. I remember him well. He was the most conservative forecaster on the planet.
      There would be a monster snow storm coming and he would down play it.
      He would always remind his audience that only 25 % of Winter precipitation
      is in the form of Snow for Boston. A real Debbie Downer for Winter Weather
      enthusiasts. Oh well, that’s what I remember, good or bad. Not trying to be
      evil in any way.

          1. This might be a silly question…
            Why is it that storms tend to follow the same latitude of where the enter and exit?
            Would that be “What is the Jet Stream” 🙂

            1. Systems would only enter and exit at the same latitude if the jet stream is configured just so, imho. They certainly don’t always behave that way. Perhaps in certain
              patterns.

  83. Thoughts and Notes.

    1) None of the TV Mets put up a snow total map today. 🙂
    2) Have a feeling things will trend a little more south and west this weekend.
    3) Eric made a comment along the lines of … [paraphrasing] “the majority of seasonal snow totals come from 1-2 major events.” I suppose that is true, but I wonder if it really works that way.

    1. Not every season. 1996-1997 was spread from November through April. You had your peaks, but as far as snow factored into climatology it was pretty even.

  84. Pulled this off a FB weather site. It’s a perfect example of what I think is destroying the credibility of the actual meteorologists in this profession.

    “…A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC, HIGH-IMPACT BLIZZARD IS TAKING AIM AT THE NORTHEAST URBAN CORRIDOR…

    The major metropolitan centers along the densely populated I-95 corridor (including: Richmond, VA; Washington, D.C; Baltimore, MD; Philadelphia, PA; New York, NY and Boston, MA) are currently in the crosshairs of what could be the single most impactful snow event in 20 years.

    Stay tuned to (name of page) this evening and in the days leading up to this potentially HISTORIC event for the very latest information…”

    To be fair, I left the name of the site and the person off this post.

      2. There really is no leaning any way when we’re 6 days out. It’s nothing but potential. There will be a storm somewhere near the East Coast.

        I have my own ideas of what I think will happen, or think is more likely versus other scenarios, and I will talk about them here among people who actually understand that this is merely CONJECTURE.

    3. Who said you needed to be fair.
      Last 20 years? We had some doozies last year, so we’re going to top
      those? I highly doubt it.

      Which site? Northeast Weather? Yup!! I don’t have to be fair.
      what shitheads!!!!!

      Northeast Weather
      2 hrs · Bryn Mawr, PA ·
      …A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC, HIGH-IMPACT BLIZZARD IS TAKING AIM AT THE NORTHEAST URBAN CORRIDOR..

    4. I still don’t understand other than ratings, what is gained by scaring the majority of folks! It is truly sad.

      1. I don’t think the person who runs northeast weather is even a met. Just some num scull with access to computer models.

    2. lol just kidding . The weekend snow it comes it comes I have no opinion . Ok time for bed as last time I did that was Saturday nights. It’s been a long two days. Some of the big pine trees looked very beautiful this morning with the fresh snow and bright sun.

  90. Ok so all along there is no big commitment from me. There’s a reason for this. There’s a reason I do this every time. But now we’re getting to the 5 day mark and I’m starting to feel that the trend will be to push the weekend system a bit south…

    Don’t get hung up on any kind of lock for big snow this far north. The Mid Atlantic, yes. Southern New England, it’s only 50/50 at best.

    1. Looks like the mid Atlantic is going to get the jackpot, and you are right again tk!!!!! It looks like it’s now trending south with southern New England JUST on the northern edge of the precipitation, if there precipitation field trends just 50-75 miles south, we could in all intent and purposes “dodge a bullet”.

  93. Looks like the mid Atlantic is going to get the jackpot, and you are right again tk!!!!! It looks like it’s now trending south with southern New England JUST on the northern edge of the precipitation, if there precipitation field trends just 50-75 miles south, we could in all intent and purposes “dodge a bullet”.

  94. The latest gfs matches the GEFS of the last model run exactly
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011900&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=196
    gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016011906&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=196
    Euro also goes with the GFS
    Canadian also goes with the GFS>
    All the weather models have gone south. It is what I was thinking yesterday, and as it stands not the gfs and euro match or are closer the the ensembles

    1. Yes, IF it’s still there. LOOOOOOOONG Waaaaaaaaay out there. Long way.
      Looks what has happened with this system.

  98. I think they will trend south and then back north again. This happens all the time. I’m still thinking significant snows here.

  99. I don’t think we come out of this without some snow. Significant snow I don’t think so but I hope I am wrong.

  100. The energy for this next event comes on shore in the Pacific Northwest
    tonight at about 7PM our time. You can see it on this 500mb chart.

    Perhaps with tonight’s 0Z runs we will see a trend back to the North?
    OR, it could even be more South, but either way, we will start to really see
    what will be happening.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=018&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=20

    1. From the NWS this morning

      Will the storm track far enough north for a direct hit to Southern New England or track farther offshore for just a glancing blow. The storm hasn’t formed yet and in fact its origins are still over the Eastern Pacific this morning, likely coming onshore to the West Coast tonight. Thus still several days to monitor the evolution of this winter storm.

    1. It’s all BULLSHIT!!! Irresponsible BULLSHIT.

      Saying there is potential for a big storm is one thing.
      Saying it’s definitely coming is quite another.

      I just read a nice piece from DT and he basically said that we need
      to pay attention to the ensembles.

      I think we know a lot more with the 0Z runs tonight.

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