Wednesday Forecast

106 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)…
Cloudiness gradually exits today as a front slogs eastward offshore. Two low pressure systems, one in the polar jet stream passing through the Great Lakes and another with the subtropical jet stream passing south of New England Thursday night, will remain separate until beyond the region Friday. This will prevent a significant storm and just result in the risk of a bit of snow and rain shower activity. A weak area of high pressure will bring fair weather Saturday and a weak low pressure area will be in the region Sunday with more cloudiness.
TODAY: Lots of clouds to start, then increasing sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy and windy. Risk of snow showers early and snow or rain showers midday. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)…
Disturbance coming through the region February 1 will produce a few rain showers with mild air. Continued above normal temperatures February 2-3 with fair weather February 2 and a few rain showers February 3. Fair and colder February 4-5.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)…
Fair with moderating temperatures early in the period. A northern stream storm system will bring unsettled weather mid to late period followed by a possible blast of colder air.

106 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Not a very interesting weather pattern these days.
    Not any snow chances to speak of either. However, the GFS has
    some front end snow with the Cutter on 2/3-2/4. Euro says no way, just rain.

    Blah blah blah…..

    1. Probably won’t happen.
      You’re probably looking at the season total already.

      Seriously, I do not know.

      We shall see. TK keeps saying there will be opportunities, but
      the runs are now well into February with NADA!

      I suppose we give that forecasted cold shot a chance and see if anything
      develops. I wouldn’t hold my breath. Not this season, anyway. 😀

      1. Running out of Winter there TK.
        Start doing the SNOW Dance.

        If it gets too late in the season, NOT EVEN I would want snow. 😀

  6. Mountains have missed out on snow. There’s less of it there than in the mid-Atlantic. Go figure. I think that next week they’ll get their mountain snowstorm, while we get rain. Should turn colder there, too, just in time for the February vacation week and President’s Day weekend.

    1. Hope so. I do NOT like what the Euro portrays for 2/3,2/4
      A Vigorous Cutter with RAIN well into Canada North of our mountains I
      am afraid.

  8. Just an observation as I headed out for work this morning.
    In my area, I would estimate snow coverage at about 65%.
    Yesterday did a number on the limited snow pack we had. 😀

  11. i hate this type of weather. Mountains need some snow and we need the snow as well to help with lack of water

  13. Thanks tk 🙂 did it really snow 4 days ago? Wow!! Snow is completely gone. That gets 3 smiley faces 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. 12z Nam really brought that storm close out of nowhere, it wasn’t even trending that way, so we’ll have to see what subsequent runs say. Looking ahead to the 2/3 time frame the one positive I can see is the trend in that storm on the GFS anyways…it looks like it wants to develop a coastal but doesn’t on the runs thus far….the positioning of the high looks to block to initial lakes low, but is either too weak or too late….either way, I’m more encouraged by the direction…lots of time there…….One other thing, as much as this pattern has sucked for snow lovers, it will not last forever. It always seem like we get into patterns that last 6-8 weeks and I think we will see a shift soon from this split flow garbage El Nino nonsense. We haven’t had a cold and snowy March in some time….just saying

      1. I don’t disagree that the pattern now is not conducive for anything snow or cold wise. However, I am hopeful that the pattern will change. To what is the big question…..you will surely crush my hopes and say something I don’t want to hear

    2. I may be mistaken, but I thought last March was BRUTAL I can remember a few days not reaching 20 degrees.

      1. It wasn’t all that warm, but was certainly NOT snowy….we haven’t had a snowy march in as long as I can remember

        1. I’m trying to remember the last snowy March. I know 1984 and then the March blizzard but cannot ever remember year – was it 1997?? And didn’t we have snow March 2013 or am I just making that up?

          1. The April Fool’s Storm was 3/31-4/1
            1997. Oh what a storm that was. I loved that
            one. It was truly AWESOME!!!!

            It was like 64 degrees the day before. I could see
            that one coming and I knew it would be big.

            Why don’t we get sure things like that any more?

            It’s always maybe, maybe no, I think so, I think not, out to sea, not Inside runner, not direct hit,
            FIIK!!!

  16. This winter is not a repeat of 2011-2012. This said, there are some similarities. Meager amounts of snow in the mountains defined 2011-2012, and it has done the same this year thus far. Also, I think Boston has only been in single digits once: and that was a measly 9F. That occurred in 2012 once as well. Also 9F as I recall. I’m not seeing a pattern favorable to a return to single digit temperatures, thought TK’s forecast cold blast could produce one or two cold nights. Of course, if the snow total remains at 10 inches we’ll be very close to the final total in 2011-2012. I’m doubtful we’ll have no more snow. I’m skeptical we’ll have a lot more snow.

    1. I predict that Boston has a 12-inch+ snowfall followed by a few more inches thereafter for the final total, likely still well below average.

  18. IF this winter ends up below normal snowfall it would be only the second one this decade. The other 11-12 winter.

    1. Next winter 2016-17 will be well above normal snowfall, if anything based on TK’s outlooks. This is why I am not really concerned about what happens (or doesn’t) this time around. 😀

    2. Yes ….

      And this can be important for snow (not the obvious reason).

      Depends how the cold enters the US. If its more eastern Great Lakes into New England, then likely the trof is too far east, perhaps positively tilted and coastal cyclogenesis would take place too far east.

      If its well to the west, like into Montana, then the trof will be too far west and we’d likely get an inside runner.

      If it can come into the upper Midwest and a piece of the high can bridge to our north, then that might be the perfect place for the trof to send up the coast a storm and the high to the north can supply the cold air.

      Hope this cold signal continues to repeat and it will be interesting to see which scenario above it might look closest to.

      1. So far, it looks like it’s coming into the upper mid-West, but
        to be honest, I am not impressed with the cold. It’s cold to be
        sure and cold enough for snow. Somehow, I was expecting
        this brutally cold outbreak. Unless I am missing something,
        I don’t see that just yet.

  20. Tweet from Eric Fisher about that cold you mentioned Go For Snow
    Spoiler: Most of February looks quite cold after the first week. You heard it here first.

  23. NWS still concerned about a “possible” inverted trough for Friday:

    */ DISCUSSION…

    THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…

    KEEPING WITH SEPARATE N/S-STREAM DISTURBANCES…THERE STILL IS
    THE THREAT OF IMPACTS. FOCUS MAINLY IN TWO AREAS: ALONG THE
    W-SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE UNDERGOES FORCING
    BENEATH MID- LEVEL LIFT…AND…ALONG A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW- TO
    MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT WITH A FORECAST INVERTED TROUGH.
    CERTAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERY WEATHER IS TO IMPACT INTERIOR NEW
    ENGLAND WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS…MORE DIFFICULT
    TO NAIL DOWN IS WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SET UP.

    WHILE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT ACROSS MAINE…STILL
    CONCERNED THAT A NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH WITH POSITIVE-
    DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ACROSS E NEW ENGLAND…THAT THE SURFACE
    REFLECTION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH COULD SHIFT FURTHER S AWAY FROM
    MAINE AND OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. NOTABLY THERE ARE DECENT
    LAPSE RATES ON UP TO H7 EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF MAIN INTO
    E/NE MASS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE CONSISTENT MODEL FORECAST
    TRENDS OF IMPACTS ACROSS MAINE WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE / OMEGA IS FOCUSED.

    1. I’ll comment once I get home. As I said this morning I had about
      65% snow covered. I’m sure it went down some more. 😀

      1. It’s sorta funny, bc it doesn’t account for man made piles, which is basically what’s out there, they are small little piles, nevertheless man made

  26. Vicki, it snows almost every year in March, but amounts differ enormously. March 2013 brought us a major snowstorm, an anomalous one in that it sat hundreds of miles offshore and still had enough reach to impact us in a big way.

    In recent years, March hasn’t been snowy, but has been quite cold.

    We did get accumulating snow on several occasions in March 2014, and also as I recall in 2011.

    The most infamous of Marches was March of 1956 which after a very mild winter hit SNE with several significant snowstorms, one weekend after another.

    But, we’re not in March quite yet. In fact, I still haven’t changed my Matisse office calendar to February. The shortest month of the year, but usually not a dull one, weather-wise.

    I’ll go out on a limb and say that this year we’ll get at least a dusting of snow on February 29th.

    1. I can remember at least one February 29th snow storm.

      I can also remember the TRIO of March snow storms in 1956. I was 9 years old
      and after the 3rd storm snow was “about” waist deep. Each storm dumped “about” a foot of snow, give or take a little, so in total there would have been “close” to 3 feet. With compaction etc. I’d say there was 24-30 inches on the ground where I lived, which was out in Millis.

      And as is typical in March, we were still playing baseball by the end of the month.

    2. What was the year of March 13 storm (other than the one in 1984)? Also there was a major storm in late March 1984. I didn’t think I had imagined the 2013 March. Thanks for confirming Joshua.

      I also loved the April fools day storm, JPD. We lost power for days!!

      And then there was the May 9, 1977 (I’m always wrong about that year too – but may have it right this time). And the April 29, 1987 which gave us a bit over a foot here.

      1. May 9, 1977 is accurate, Vicki. That was the day I landed at Logan after 5 mos. in Europe and North Africa traveling with a back pack and a pack of Traveller’s Checks. We got ten inches, as I recall. :<)

  27. Call me crazy, but IMO and looking at models, 40+ Thursday,Friday,Saturday, then 50+ Sunday,Monday,Tuesday, and Wednesday, 40+ Thursday, then it cools back, but nothing out of the ordinary, then a short warm up again? Quite possible, we shall see. 🙂

  28. More Inverted Trough talk from latest NWS discussion about 1/2 hour ago:

    MUST BEGIN BY NOTING THAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TO SOMETHING
    LAST NIGHT…NOTING THAT THE POTENT NATURE OF THE APPROACHING
    SHORTWAVE ON FRI MAY SUGGEST A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN MODEL QPF
    FIELDS AS A COASTAL LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS AND INVERTED TROF
    DEVELOPS. INDEED NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE ALL SHIFTED
    QPF AXES A BIT FURTHER W. MORE DETAILED THINKING TO FOLLOW.

          1. Well, even with last week there was some of us
            who insisted on monitoring the situation “just in case” there was some N&W shift. Gee, guess what?
            There was!

  29. 18Z GFS has the northern stream system very robust. Not sure how it will translate,
    if at all. Watching.

        1. Even with this (this is one run and an 18Z run at that. More runs to come and from other models), barely anything is on shore. The action is “just” off shore.

          It would not take much of a shift to bring it on shore
          for Eastern Sections.

          Wouldn’t that be something?

          One more thing: Boundary Layer temperatures
          are quite marginal in the mid 30’s or a tad higher.
          It best come down at a good clip, else it might
          just rain anyway. 😀

          1. Oh and if it is not clear, I am NOT making a forecast. I am simply posting model output
            and commenting on it.

            I find the upcoming situation fascinating!
            The inverted trough is becoming a possibility
            due to the Southern Stream system tracking
            closer to the coast, thus allowing the interaction
            with the Northern stream (low pressure trough – inverted trough if you will, a Norlun)

            1. Totally understandable, and I believe most totally understand that. At the sametime Im very glad to have tk chime in and say if or if not it’s going to happen. I’ve seen nothing on any local stations saying anything of significance. So not taking serious

  31. Still thinking a miss though a bit close. I think the N stream is being over forecast. If I’m right about that then the correction will appear on the 00z runs.

  32. There is increasing confidence by the TV mets of snow showers and general light snow for Friday morning. In fact, Eric already has a map with snow (albeit light accum.) for all of Eastern NE from Maine to the Cape. The only issue will be borderline temps for the Cape especially…not to mention the am commute itself.

        1. Charlie you keep saying that. Why do you assume that if a person likes weather that the person is biased. Remember the old saying…the faults you see in others are most often your own

          I’ve never know Eric to post anything but what he sees.

          Please try to also respond if you must without a pan LOL or smh. Thank you 🙂

      2. He might enjoy the snow, but IMHO
        He is Not biased.
        Again that is my opinion and I am sticking to it.
        I think it happens now.
        Funny it was the cmc of all models
        That first signaled this.

  35. Inverted trof not impressing me. The cold building atop the world is, however. Cold times ahead…

    1. we need to figure out the placement of it when it comes down. It it is to far east like the gfs is showing, we get nothing when storms go to the south with just weak clippers going across just followed by a storm to give us rain. Placement needs to be good.

      1. The way this Winter has been, it will be wrong, Dead wrong.
        But for now we can wish and hope that we get that nice
        set up at least once this Winter then we can move into Spring,
        unless we get it twice and wouldn’t that be something????
        😀

      2. Somewhere in there we get a full phase and combo of cold and moisture. First shot is in the Feb 12-14 timeframe.

        1. I and a few others will be doing our Snow Dance while Charlie sets up Shop at the Wrentham Village Premium Outlets parking lot and does a WARM WEATHER DANCE, all the while Aiming his humongous hair dryer SouthWestward to fend off any possible snow.

  36. I would like to see the rest of the 0Z guidance.

    0Z NAM NOT impressive at all and I mean not at all.

    😀

  37. Although my son’s photo didn’t make the air, Barry did acknowledge it.

    Nice touch. I like that guy! He’s awesome.

    Hi David,

    Thank you very much for sending the great snow picture to me. Those bands were intense!!

    Regards,
    Barry

    Barry Burbank
    WBZ-TV WBZ-AM WSBK BOSTON
    Meteorologist
    o 617 787.7098
    c 508 574.6547
    http://twitter.com/BarryWBZ
    http://www.cbsboston.com

  38. Latest NWS discussion re: Inverted Trough

    THEREFORE…WILL NOT BE
    HIGHLIGHTING ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED INCH OF SNOW…BUT WITH THE
    BTV SQUALL PARAMETER RATHER HIGH…IT COULD FALL RATHER QUICKLY.
    SHOULD THE MAIN INVERTED TROF CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD SLIDE…MAY
    NEED TO CONSIDER MORE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE
    REGION…BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOW THAT MONITORING
    TRENDS IS PRUDENT.

  40. For tomorrow, the CMC is the only model showing a decent signal for snow
    tomorrow.

    Here is the 0Z CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012800/gem_asnow_neus_10.png

    and the 6Z RGREM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016012806/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    Thw GFS is basically a swing and a miss
    THe NAMS have precip, but more rain than snow.

    qpf for 12Z NAm

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012806/namconus_apcpn_neus_20.png

    4Z NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012806/nam4km_apcpn_neus_20.png

    WRF-ARW

    WFRhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016012800/wrf-arw_apcpn_neus_48.png

    WRF-NMM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016012800/wrf-nmm_apcpn_neus_48.png

    So I guess we shall see. 😀

    1. SREF shows about 1/2 inch and the HRRR is not quite in range.

      Here is the french model showing about .2 inch for boston

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=arpege&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=096&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

      UKMET is a day late. DOn’t know what’s up with that!

      Here are the CMC-HRDPS / Precipitation Accumulations

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=00&type=PR&lang=en&map=qc&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

      .29 to .39 inch for boston and up to .79 inch for the Cape. Extreme cut off
      to the West.

      So, no matter what happens, any reasonable precipitation, IF ANY, would
      be confined to coastal areas.

      1. The Canadian High Resolution model,
        CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km)

        That is pretty high resolution, NO?
        The HRRR which is the US high resolution model is 3km.

        Seems to be a reasonable model. TK, can you comment on this model?

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