Wednesday Forecast

298 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)…
Low pressure tracks northwest of New England as it heads into Canada through tonight. A surge of mild air moves up from the south ahead of it with gusty winds and eventual rain including some downpours. The low’s cold front gets offshore but not that far before hanging up. A ripple of low pressure will move up along the front Thursday night and early Friday, close enough for a grazing of rain/snow over Cape Cod and southeastern MA. The weekend will be mostly fair and turning colder. A cold front passing by on Sunday may produce a few rain and snow showers.
TODAY: Cloudy. A chance of light rain northwest of Boston by midday but rain more likely a band moving from west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs in the 50s but for some areas not until late in the day. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, including embedded downpours and a slight chance of thunderstorms, diminishing west to east overnight. Temperatures may rise toward 60 at first then lows in the 40s late. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W toward dawn.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Rain may linger outer Cape Cod firs thing in the morning. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Chance of rain/snow Cape Cod and southeastern MA early, otherwise mostly cloudy start then clearing with sun returning. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a few rain and snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)…
Unsure of details at this time, but a colder period of weather and a couple potential storms may impact the region. Will work on timing and refine this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)…
Indications are for below normal temperatures but drier weather during this time.

298 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. If you wish to translate my 6-10 into “I don’t know” then feel free, because at this point, I don’t know. 🙂

    Welcome to the inexact science of meteorology. 😀

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Note, the large temperature differences between Boston and towns and cities close to the Canadian border and just over the border where it is snowing. Roughly a 20 degree differential right now, with snow there and rain coming here. Rising temps here will increase the differential to over 30 degrees by afternoon. Eventually the milder air will change the snow to sleet and then rain in northern NH/Maine/Southern Quebec. But, the surge of milder air will mostly be cut off at the pass up there as a cold front sweeps down.

    1. To your point, it’s sleeting fairly heavily here in Plymouth, NH. Ground is covered in it. Should change to rain within an hour or two.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    You may not be on TV or the radio but you are still the one meteorologist that I will go to first! In fact, my husband always asks when there is a potential storm, what does the weather blog you go on have to say? 🙂

    1. It’s funny, isn’t it, rainshine, because I think many of us come here first. I also wonder how many literally just come here for weather. I know I do. I hear a forecast on morning news because I listen to the news and not because I’m looking for weather. However, in my mind, I compare it always to what TK has predicted.

      1. I certainly come here, as you well know, however, I always
        check Eric at the 11PM broadcast and I also check out the NWS
        discussion and of course I look at every stinken model I can get my
        hands on, every single run! 😀

        1. And I, as well as everyone else here is glad that you look at every “stinken model” because it often helps and your interpretations are often right. 🙂

          Yes, when there is a potential storm, I watch some mets on tv. I have some favorites. I love the weather and it’s all interesting. In brief, the weather is interesting. More people should be interested in the weather – my opinion – they might learn more about it!

  7. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    I await the 12Z suit of models for 2 reasons:

    1. How far N&W does the precip come on Friday.
    2. Do we get a storm on the 9th,10th and if so is it snow and how much.

    Every model run has been different, although the last few runs seem the have
    the same theme, so we shall see.

  8. TK – Based on your 11-15 outlook, does this mean that the Valentines Day storm is now off the table?

    1. I was going to ask him pretty much the same.
      My question was:
      IF there is a storm 2/9,2/10, is that the potential you were looking at
      in the 2/10-2/14 time frame OR is there another potential after that one?

    2. I would think that what happens with the medium range storm would affect what happens down the road ….

      If there’s a medium range storm, is it intense …. does it move on or sit in the Maritimes, etc …..

      Almost need to get agreement on the medium range storm first, I think.

  9. In looking at the models for the stormy period, I would discount what you see for a number of days … every run exhibits change. As for a final solution, we’d be lucky to see that by the weekend.

  10. 12Z NAM is cranking. Out to about Noon Tomorrow. Will it move more N&W for
    Friday or not? That is the question. Time will tell as the results will be in shortly. 😀

  11. We are off to a crazy start in February temp wise.

    There were the 60s Monday, the 1st ……….. and its resultant +20F anomalies.

    Yesterday’s “cooler” weather brought us anomalies of +13, 12, 10 and 12.

    We’re about to receive the double high whammy tonight at midnight, say 55F to 60F at midnight which will in essence hit both the 3rd and the 4th.

    I know its only 4 days, but still ………

  12. Thank you TK. And to echo what Rainshine and Vicki said, I also come here first for the forecast. My friends and family often ask me “what does your guy have to say about the weather”. So…thanks for being “my guy” when it comes to the most accurate forecast. 🙂

  13. Notice the “bend” in the precipitation field.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016020312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=039

    How about some curvature in the 500mb.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016020312&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=039

    As JJ posted from NWS Upton, there is some wiggle room for this to move
    farther North and judging by the above, I’d say this run comes farther North
    than the previous run. 😀

      1. Curious…learning opportunity here…When you compare 6z to 12z is one usually more accurate than the other?

        1. That is a loaded question.

          “Generally” speaking the 6Z and 18Z have less data points for initialization, so by that alone one could make the assumption that those runs “could” be less accurate.

          Aside from that, one would assume that the most
          recent run with more recent data would be more accurate barring some sort of initialization problem.

  14. In case anyone missed it on the previous blog here is Upton, NY thinking for this coming Friday
    LOOKING AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
    FIELDS…THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ROOM FOR MODELS TO CONTINUE
    TRENDING A BIT MORE TO THE NW.

  17. Thanks all! 🙂

    Yes there would be an adjustment in the thinking regarding the 12-14. More like a clipper followed by an Arctic blast.

    1. No surprise. Tries to bend back NW while the entirev thing is being shunted east, which is the motion that will win out.

    1. TK, After this short period of cold next week, does it look like we very well could return to mild weather to finish February? Ik it’s a ways away but wanted to ask you. Again thank you. 🙂

    1. It’s looking more and more that ALL of the models are zeroing in
      on a similar solution, at least increasing the chances. Still does NOT mean
      it will happen, just looking better.

      Waiting on the Euro. 😀

  24. JP Dave the way this winter has been I think that qualifies as a HOLY CRAP BATMAN but I will let you be the judge of that.

    1. Nope, sorry. Let’s see what the Euro says and perhaps I will change my
      mind.

      8 inches of snow does not warrant a Holy Crap Batman response. If we can
      get up to a foot, I might be ready to let loose. 😀

  26. Still next Tuesday the 9th into Wed the 10th. This is perfect for me since I am leaving next Thursday for Florida so I hope the timing for the snow doesn’t change.

    1. No, starts about 7 or 8 AM Tuesday and ends about 7 or 8 AM Wednesday.
      Not much snow for a 24 hour event is it?

      Doesn’t seem like a high impact event just yet. Let’s see what happens.

  30. I’ll take the midweek storm just hoping for next weekend to be storm free. I missed last valentines because of snow so this year I’m taking my wife and my parents out to dinner on the 13th and my son so no SNOW Than and I want a relaxing 3 day weekend .

      1. Probably dishes tavern in pembroke it’s the old Fairview from Marshfield. It’s a nice place for dinner not your every night type of place . Although this is not findky but probably .

          1. Too funny….after I replied I had a feeling you were going to say that place. I hear good things about it but haven’t been yet.

            1. It’s good I’ve been there twice so far. I have ties to the old fairview since I was a young kid growing up in Marshfield and it’s the same menu and staff. Just was reading business is trying to get full liquor license for the old Marshfield spot. I’m surprised I figured condos .

  39. The CMC is actually a good thumping of snow for most of SNE despite the close track. Stays all snow NW of a Boston/Providence line FWIW at this early stage. That’s a foot plus for most of us as JJ posted.

  40. Still way out there and a lot COULD change but at this early stage it looks like some sort of accumulating snowfall will happen in that 9-1o time frame. This does not look to be anywhere near the blizzard of 2013 which happened close to that same time 3 years ago on the 8th – 9th of February.

  42. The euro will determine, and will be the one that is closest to right IMO, I’m curious what it says.

  43. Does anyone know Danielle Gersh who does a.m. traffic on Ch. 7 then “assists” the noontime met in presenting the weather forecasts? Is she a traffic reporter, a met or both?

    Not that it matters much to me at this point since WHDH will be going off the air at the end of the year anyway…just wondering.

  44. 12z Euro has joined the other models and come much closer for Friday. Looking like a widespread sneaky accumulating snow event for SNE. It has a 6″ bullseye just SE of Boston…

    1. It is sneaky Mark, considering temps are marginal, highs sat will be mid 40’s, and may reach 50 degrees Sunday. It makes me pause. Tk any input??

    1. Any idea when it would start? Wondering about school for the kids. You know us moms….always need to think ahead.

      1. Sue, we’ll be slowly dropping from well above 32F temps the day before and with a northerly breeze off of the still 42F ocean, I am a bit suspect of the EURO snow totals for Friday, especially in Marshfield and Plymouth.

        1. Thanks Tom. I would be fine with no snow days this year!!! Mark, thanks for the info. I won’t hold you or the Euro to it happening. 🙂

      2. Taking the Euro verbatim this would start around daybreak Friday and end by evening.

        This is just the Euro solution – not saying this is what ultimately is going to happen but there is a definitely a model trend back NW for Friday.

  46. EURO is having a nutty with the first southern stream system. If I’m reading isobars correctly, its 968 mb.

    1. 965mb Tom I wonder if this being stronger effects the second system that was to effect us. for the 9th/10th

  47. For the Friday system, its the UKMET/Euro/CMC vs the NAM/GFS.
    American models graze us, the international models are much closer and deliver accumulating snow for pretty much everybody.

    TK, thoughts??

    1. I am not TK but like tom said, I would probably take lower end snows for southeast areas. due to temperatures and the warm ground

  48. Tweet from meteorologist Dan Leonard of WSI for Friday.
    Euro on board the ana-frontal train. Congrats SE Mass on 6-12″

    2. FYI re: Ana-Front

      An ana front is a frontal boundary in which the main shield of clouds and precipitation is located behind the actual frontal boundary.
      This is because cold air located behind the front moves rapidly, pushing against the warm air out ahead of the front. Because cold air is more dense than warm air, the surging cold air causes the warm air to lift upward along the front.
      Therefore, clouds and precipitation that form end up inclined rearward with height due to the advancing cold air at the surface.
      That causes the main zone of cloudiness and precipitation to develop behind the actual frontal boundary.

    3. I’m sorry jj that fella is wrong way more than he’s right 🙂 waiting on tk’s response

  49. Could we get that Friday system to track a little bit back further west to get more accumulating snow my way.

  51. Wonder if any forecasters will bite on major changes for Friday. Today’s models would suggest so, but it’s been very volatile. An interesting period looks to be on the way though.

  52. Huh????

    Now the Euro takes the original system from the 7th and slowly brings it up
    this way, but rather far off shore as a Monster. Throws back a slug of snow.
    Does NOT develop an additional system like the other models.

    This is insane.

    Still up in the air. This solves NOTHING!

    Surface

    http://imgur.com/gNNSIgb

    OOPS I spoke too soon. It does develop the other system. Here it is

    http://imgur.com/7EeQ5B5

    Snow maps to follow

    First system delivers about 9 inches to Boston. Not sure the other gets up here.
    Please stay tuned.

  53. Wow, in addition to Friday, the 12z Euro now hits us with the Monday 2/8 storm. Looks like that screws us for the second storm.

    1. Yes, it does. Goes harmlessly out South of us.

      You know what will happen? The 1st one will be so big, yet stay far enough off shore, that we get NEITHER of the systems and we’ll have to settle for Friday, if
      that even happens. 😀 😀 😀

      1. That’s my fear as well, especially back here in CT and areas further west/inland.

        The Euro is in a camp of its own right now though, focusing on the Monday storm as opposed to Tuesday.

  54. I would not be surprised the way this winter has gone we get skunked. Hoping we get early next week storm system.

    1. Is the monday system thr same one that is suppose to be the 9th-10 but an earlier arrival? Or are they they different storms

      2. No, this is a different storm than 9-10. The Euro puts the emphasis on this first storm and amplifies it big time which makes the 9-10 storm weaker and sends it well out to sea.

  56. Somethings not right, I like the euro but it has the storms jumping around, it’s not making sense. I’m sure tk will chime in soon.

  57. Good tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee here.
    Friday’s snow threat is a perfect example of this pattern’s volatility. Don’t put too much stock in models more than ~48hours out.

    1. We are less than 48hrs to Friday’s potential, he must be talking about the next weeks disappearing act on euro 🙂

      1. I think its the general pattern overall he is talking about.
        To me there is POTENTIAL but nothing set in stone.

  58. Another good tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    This pattern is a nightmare to forecast in the medium range.

    1. No S**t Dick Tracy!!! 😀 😀 😀

      INSANE!!!

      I would NOT want to be a forecaster responsible for public forecasts.

  59. From Bernie Rayno
    all of a sudden the models are catching on the shortwave going negative thursday night and friday across S New England

      1. This event may trend more and more snow but the temps are so suspect. IF it remains mostly snow, ratios will be very low and snow will be the wet pasty kind.

  60. The 12z Euro solution for Monday has support from the JMA but otherwise, its an outlier right now. The track of the Monday storm is way out to sea (in fact it looks closer to Bermuda than New England). However, the storm develops into such a monster that it is still able to throw significant snow back into eastern New England. I’m suspect of this solution though anything is possible. We know something is brewing early next week but that’s about all we can say at this point.

  63. Is the Friday system part of the cold front that is bringing us our heavy rain/wind later this afternoon into overnight?

    1. It is a wave of low pressure that develops along that very front of which you speak. If it cranks up, it could become more than a wave, but either way
      it’s origins will be along that front.

    1. There is no longer any ice on turnpike lake, for those that don’t know, turnpike averages 5-20ft deep. And is about 900 acres in size.

  65. unfortunatly with the pattern we are having this winter, we will be needing to wait till this rain moves through and the storm that is producing it moves up into canada before we can be at least some what confident in what happens friday.

  66. IF the Friday event is to happen, I’d like to see the NAM and other shorter range models start to pick up on it more, especially being within 36 hrs now.

    1. Look at this morning’s 4km NAM. Is is certainly trending that way.

      18Z NAM has already been initialized (GFS as well) and both are cranking.
      Nam Results 3-3:30. Gfs starting about 4:30. 😀

      4KM NAM
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020312/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      Here is the WRF-NMM as of 12Z Friday with it still cranking

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016020312/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_48.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016020312/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_neus_48.png

      Now that is trending. Does it mean we get it. No? Let’s see what the 18Z runs shows.

  67. With temps around 38-41 across the area will this effect accumulation, also what is the timing? It looks like most of the precip is between 9am-3pm if I’m not mistaken? Dave does this make sense?

  68. From what I can tell…

    Yes, precip gets back into the 95 belt Thursday night but it’s early, and fast, and insignificant for the most part.

    Also, 12z runs: Something not right with Euro today. I can’t put my finger on it other than it’s really confused about the split flow, more than usual. The 12z GFS may actually be superior in comparison. Take that is the more likely course of events but with caution.

  69. 12z Euro ensembles have almost a half inch of qpf for Boston and quarter inch back to the CT Valley for the Friday system.

      1. I’m thinking about 8:1 to start and ending as 10:1
        Just because it is wet, does NOT mean the ratios have to be
        really low. Can be, but does not have to be.

        Please see post above about ANA FRONT.

        That would support a higher ration.

  72. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND LATE
    THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…

    MAZ018>023-040415-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.160205T0700Z-160205T2000Z/
    WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
    SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BROCKTON…PLYMOUTH…FALL RIVER…
    NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…CHATHAM…FALMOUTH…PROVINCETOWN…
    VINEYARD HAVEN
    308 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    FRIDAY AFTERNOON…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
    WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

    * LOCATIONS…SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND EAST OF NEW BEDFORD
    TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
    HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL.

    * TIMING…RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT…CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
    MIDNIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK OVER CAPE COD. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
    IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL
    RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.

    * IMPACTS…ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING
    CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY MORNING
    COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED. IN ADDITION…THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW
    AND THE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES COULD RESULT IN
    ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

    * CONFIDENCE…THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION
    AMOUNTS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. AS A RESULT…IF THE
    STORM TRACKS A BIT FURTHER EAST…LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
    HOWEVER…IF IT IS FURTHER WEST THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW
    EXTENDING FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING
    BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE…WITH MORE RAIN OVER THE CAPE AND
    ISLANDS.

  74. Here is my problem with that:

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY

    Really, Winter Storm Watch for 4-6 inches?????

    Sorry, but that is ONLY Advisory level in my book.

    I guess my book is different!!!

    1. I agree. To me winter storm watches should be issued for POTENTIAL of 6 inches or more of snow. That is a solid advisory level snow event in my opinion.

    3. The watch leaves room for over 6 inches, since the trend has been up. It’s not a warning, so it’s 100% the right call based on the data available at this time.

  76. I am on the fence about Friday. May be a slug of heavy precip due to good lift but it’s going to be hauling. Something has to happen. Friday is National Weatherpersons Day. 😛

    My feeling is early next week the Monday system is more OTS but it’s the follow-up system that gets this area with something, p-type dependent on track but I like a colder set-up at the moment.

  78. But people…that’s not their final #’s. The watch is the RIGHT CALL here. It’s no big deal to go with a Winter Weather Advisory out of a Winter Storm Watch when it becomes more clear that the amounts will fall in advisory level rather than warning level. And with the sharp western edge, literally 10 miles will make a huge difference.

    I ONE HUNDRED PERCENT SUPPORT NWS HERE and I would do the SAME THING.

    1. Really? Earlier you said: “No surprise. Tries to bend back NW while the entire thing is being shunted east, which is the motion that will win out.”

      1. Exactly. Before I looked at the latest info. But what I’m talking about here is their decision. Their thoughts. I would do the same thing for that region based on what I know now.

        As I stated earlier today, welcome to the inexact science of meteorology. These forecasts are not easy to make. 🙂

        1. Oh I understand. I guess the key is watch.

          Just wondering if it might not be a bit premature.

          We shall see.

          Dying to see 0Z guidance.

      2. 😀 😀 😀

        I am suffering from on again/off again snow predictions.

        I’ll believe this SNOW if/when it happens. 😀

  80. The Euro Ensembles still like the Tuesday storm as the main event. Ensembles have the Monday storm out to sea with perhaps some precip brushing eastern MA. Tuesday is a direct hit with the low tracking between Cape Cod and Nantucket.

  81. Sometimes, ladies and gentlemen, the weather defies our scientific thought process. Forecasting is imperfect. The general public is going to have to get used to this, but I doubt they ever will.

    It’s entirely possible Friday morning that someone gets 6+ inches of snow while 10 miles west has ZERO. No matter what NWS does here they will catch heat.

    I think the problem lies in the fact that the general public needs to be educated on how not only to read or listen to a forecast, but also understand it and apply it to their location and plans, and then realize that a forecast a good number of hours or days in advance is by no means a final call. Updates. Updates. Updates.

    “But 10 days ago they said it was gonna snow today and it’s sunny!!!” DUH! Idiocy in action. I’m fed up with it.

    And now that I’ve ranted, it’s time for a cup of coffee.

    1. You’re confused? I’m confused. We’re All confused.

      What a crazy weather pattern.

      Let’s have a GORILLA on Tuesday that stalls out just South of us
      and we get a season’s snow in one storm. 😀 😀 😀 😀

      1. Well, Boston’s going to get a good amount of their snow in one storm. Maybe this one? Time will tell.

      1. Quite possible, but not a great track record off an 18z at that time range when it’s an outlier.

  85. Here’s the story…
    Monday threat: No phasing of streams, likely too far offshore.
    Tuesday threat: Phasing more likely, impact more likely.

      1. I suppose? The irony is that the idea the ECMWF had originally may be the one that pans out. But the model has not been consistent so with a different solution every day one can’t be sure which one is most likely without further investigation. And my investigation today has lead me to the belief that the GFS run from 12z is most likely the closest representation of what takes place.

  88. Very Latest from the NWS

    SNOWFALL…
    HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
    CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD…INCLUDING
    MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
    INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
    QPF FOR NANTUCKET…WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
    TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
    SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
    FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
    EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD…BUT FURTHER WEST AND
    HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
    CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
    SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
    WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
    LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
    INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
    SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
    AGGRESSIVE…BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
    INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

  90. Necn is saying same or close to same thing, extremely sharp cutoff somewhere Taunton north and west.

  91. Got my oil fill up today. As most of you know I have been using the heat pump in my central AC since its been so mild. So my last fill up was in early December I think…so two months ago. All I needed was 91 gallons!!! To think there were winters I was paying 800-900 a month! My electric bill only goes up 50 or so a month.

    1. WW That’s great news!!! Glad your saving lots of money. My AC unit automatically came on last night when the place reached 70 degrees, I don’t like our place higher than 68 or 69 degrees.

      1. Sure is! This tank should take me all the way into spring…only 91 gallons all winter (well so far). Crazy.

      1. Thanks Vicki…wish I could say I had some say in it. It’s a big change from what I paid last year!

    1. Doesn’t that fluctuate from different locations, places in Lawrence mass it was 4:59pm, Attleboro was 5:02.

      1. Of course it fluctuates by a minute or two depending on location. I always post Boston stats. 😀

  94. Latest run of the gfs forms the storm for tuesday further north. no more than 1 to 3 inches of snow. It is also very weak. the first southern stream storm drains the energy for the secondary that was going to give us snow. There is so many things that can go wrong with any of these storms, or meld and make a good snow storm. we will just have to see.

    2. I have a hunch Friday’s is a miss for many except Taunton to Plymouth south and east. Few snow showers north and west, just a hunch

      1. Shopping with Mrs. OS at Macy’s. We’ll she’s
        Shopping. I’M playing with smart phone.
        Looking at obs, models and the blog.

        1. My mom used to have my dad take her to Boston to shop. She would shop and he would people watch,,,mostly ladies I think. 🙂

  98. Channel 7 in commercial break is saying Boston to providence misses a cape cod storm Friday. Will see what they say at 11pm

  99. I have a question, when is the last time it has snowed with any significance in Boston, I’m not talking about less than 2-3 inches. I’m talking about a snow event a significance? Also widespread, I’ve seen and heard snow events of 5 inches in Norwood but 1 inch in providence. When was the last widespread snow event?

      2. lol I think most would take this anyday, and think MISERABLE as heavy snow and bad roads, just saying 😉 😉 😉

  103. It’s funny, when I was looking at recent mid March snows, I also peaked at April for Logan. And ….. at the bottom of the months, it gives various averages.

    Average April snow in Boston : 1.9 inches ……

  104. Hi all, as usual great input from everybody, escaped work today at 12:30 pm to pick up kids, another 1/2 day of school in Plymouth. 5 phone calls so far from people looking for there snow blower, my other business is small engine repair. so here I am for the latest and greatest input for a storm I had no idea about . 9:07 pm in south Plymouth with rain, wind and 57 degrees. Winter storm watch in effect . I love it.

    1. I didn’t realize you were from Plymouth. I just moved from Plymouth to Halifax. Love our new place by certainly miss Plymouth.

  105. Looking at the 0z Nam comingbout.
    It”s early and I could be wrong,
    But it looks to come more North.

  106. Over an inch of rain up here today, including the sleet that fell this morning. Temps never got above the mid-30s so 12 hours later much of what was sleet covered this morning is still quite slippery. Sleet is very hard to get rid of- we had snow melting at the same time the sleet was hanging around.

    Interesting forecast for Friday. Need to see the 0z runs, but I have a suspicion they’ll shift back east. The fact that the 18z guidance failed to follow through with and in fact generally backed away from the more westward solutions earlier means that trend could’ve been more of a one cycle fluke, at least regarding the Euro.

    Beyond then, not even going to speculate. At least there’s stuff to watch though 🙂

    2. Talked to my brother tonight who is in weare. He said skiing in that area is horrendous. All ice and lots of injuries. He wasn’t sure about north. But the on and off warm weather melts and then freezes all snow..natural and manmade. The base is plain ice.

  107. Not that boston is due to get a blizzard
    On fridsy, but the 0z Nam is Decidedly
    More North by a wide margin!!#

  108. Cannot tell how hard it is raining. 55. Wind cranking into the 20s. I love this. Yes I am a bit of a nut but rain and wind felt nice today.

  110. Vicki, I have only gone once. this season. It has been icy with not that good conditions, No real natural snow. . I do have to say, there is more snow cover than 2012.

    1. Pretty much brothers view. He is older than I so older than methuselah as my mom would say. He mostly skis sunappe now because he was on patrol and the hospitality so gets huge discount and can ski several days each week.

  111. Good call on the NAM shift OS. The 0z snow map looks very reasonable to me- a good blend of everything on the table right now, and also in good agreement with the 21z SREF, which is generally similar to the NAM.

  113. Note to self, JP Dave does not = OS, I need to start tuning in more often—–yes I am a fair weather fan

  114. Can someone explain to me why we’re not in a high wind advisory? It’s crazy windy out, and so far, the wind has topped at 39.9MPH here in Chelmsford, with the average constant at 17.5MPH. I have the window open because it’s a balmy 57 outside and I enjoy listening to the wind (not so much the trees/branches I hear breaking in neighbor’s yards, but I’m hearing that and am a little scared for my trees, also lots of sirens). I also went onto the National Grid website and noticed there are quite a number of power outages, in my town and throughout MA. I really think an advisory is warranted. What do you all think?

    2. We are about same as TK but I checked ever source map and there are some outages……not here. Arghh

      And I have window open where I am sitting. It sounds so nice

      1. Doesn’t it sound exciting, Vicki? I’m enjoying it, too. The nice thing about an outage tonight is that it’s so warm out. Those who have electric and oil heat wouldn’t have an issue with the house cooling off too badly 🙂

        1. I’m keeping my fingers crossed but it’s almost sleep time. There are outages in framingham.

          It sounds wonderful

  115. It’s very windy here in Groveland too….I live on top of a hill, but this is the windiest it has been in awhile

  118. Average April snowfall Boston = 1.9″
    Average November snowfall Boston = 1.3″

    As TK always says, it is easier to snow in April than November. It takes the entire winter for the ocean to get to its coldest temp.

  120. All models now have snow for Friday. 2-5 inches and that is exactly what
    Eric has on his maps. That includes NAM, GFS, CMC, RGEM and SREF. 12Z Euro said yes. We shall see about the 0Z later. Till tomorrow….

  121. All the models either have an inside runner or have the storm next week missing us all togeather

    but friday storm all the models show at least a light snowfall.

  125. Matt I saw this tweet for tomorrow. I am sure JP Dave could confirm this if its right
    00z Euro even more bullish than 12z, 8-10″ snow for all of RI/SE MA, most of CT in the 3-6″ range (even some 6″+ in SE CT)

      1. On the 8th, the Euro like yesterday;s 12Z run takes a big
        storm WELL off shore, yet still throws back a slug of snow
        into SNE. Not sure why. It’s almost like an inverted trough, but
        I think it is something else. I think it is due to a long fetch off of the ocean at the surface all the way up through 850MB. Warmer than normal ocean probably contributing to it.

        http://imgur.com/Vvpxgxz

  126. Now for the Mesoscale snow maps. You have the GFS and the NAM 32km from JJ.

    Here is the NAM 12km

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020406/namconus_asnow_neus_21.png

    NAM 4km

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020406/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    RGEM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020406/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    The WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM won’t be ready until about NOON and only go out 48 hours, so can’t see snow from yesterday’s run.

    SREF 12 hour total ending 18Z tomorrow:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif

    Also, since it was not posted, here is the Global CMC total:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020400/gem_asnow_neus_12.png

    Global FIM for tomorrow

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016020400/t3/totsn_sfc_f072.png

  127. FWIW, with those NWS snow maps, WHY do they still have a watch up?
    Either take the watch down OR up the totals. A little inconsistency there boys and girls!!!!

  128. Short range models did good for NYC LI when they had the blizzard almost two weeks ago. Lets see how they do here.

    1. French model MeteoFrance-ARPEGE / North America (mesh: 7 to 35 km, interpolated to 50 km)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=arpege&run=00&type=PR&hi=024&hf=072&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

      German model DWD-ICON / North America (mesh: 7 to 13 km interpolated to 25 km)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=dwd_icon&hi=024&hf=072&type=PR&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

      All three (3) of those European models produce a CRAP LOAD of QPF!!

      I wonder if they share the same engine for those models???? Interesting to say the least.

  130. Any idea if these models take into consideration the recent warmth? Also any idea the start time for Boston and points north? Thanks! This has been the winter of “don’t trust the models more than 24 hours out” ha.

      2. I believe it starts as rain it all depends when that high temperature starts to decline . Seems like southshore areas will be the jackpot out of this one . Do we have a rough guess on the water temp.

  131. As much as I will take this weather over snow I admit the humidity sucks this morning. I am sensitive to it (would die in Florida ha)…can feel it. Use to dry air this time of year.

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