Thursday Forecast Update

372 Comments

3:29PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)…
As we fine-tune the upcoming event we find a westward shift, enough to bring heavier snow into the I-95 belt. This is due to a 20 to 40 mile westward shift in the position of the front and track of the low pressure area developing along it – a rather small distance in the grand picture but in this case it has big impacts on the location of heavier snowfall. So this update takes that into account and adjusts for it. The remainder of the forecast below is largely unchanged at this time. Will update that on the next post…
THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures cooling into the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Rain/mix developing south to north overnight, changing to snow by dawn except only mixing with snow on the immediate South Shore though Cape Cod and the South Coast. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with snow except rain and snow mixed South Shore through Cape Cod, accumulations under 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1-3 slushy inches remainder of Cape Cod, South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA including southern RI, 3-6 inches elsewhere except an area of 6-9 inches along the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to north central RI. Clearing during the afternoon. Temperatures steady in the 30s, lowest northwest of Boston, highest Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)…
A trough of low pressure will remain in the area February 9 with additional storm development possible. Rain/mix/snow (depending on development and track) is possible on February 9. Windy and colder with snow showers possible February 10. Fair and cold February 11. Smaller system may bring some mix/snow February 12, reinforcing cold air for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)…
Mostly fair weather with temperatures below normal to start the period then recovering to closer to normal.

372 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

    1. So TK what is it about our area (not just Woburn) that makes us under these heavy zones all the time? Good example is the Channel 7 map. Like to our north, south, and west it’s less but we are in the bullseye. Seems to happen a lot so wondering what it is.

      1. We’re not under them all the time. But there are various reasons that put us in there sometimes. This time it will just simply be the best combination of cold air aloft as well as at the surface and precipitation intensity.

        1. OK cool. I might be remembering it wrong…just seems like our general area gets hit harder than others in most storms. Wasn’t sure if there was any scientific reason for this…or Al Gore is always in our area when these storm come ha.

  3. Thanks tk 🙂

    We have a lawyers ceremony to attend in Providence tomorrow at 1pm, we are leaving here around 11am from Dedham. Roads should be fine by then I’m thinking.

  4. This snow event is moving super fast, I mean it’s going to only snow for about 5-7 hours, most of it between 5am-11am.

    1. A lot of that will depend on road crews. It will go from really nasty to not so bad in about an hour’s time if the crews have done their jobs nicely. There is no nasty temp drop with this and it clears in the afternoon.

  6. Well just dandy….I just looked at Ch 7 and see we are also in that sweet spot. What in heavens name happened to the cape. I’m blaming Tom, Keith, Sue, John, etc for pushing it this way and WeatherWiz for suggesting I look at 7. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    We are supposed to have a POD delivered tomorrow and it is not looking as if we will have room for anything but snow in the driveway. Oh well…whatever is meant to happen will.

    1. HA yeah their maps change with every run. Wonder if anyone is even analyzing it or just lets a computer throw a map up. It could be right…it just changes all the time. I am still not convinced we get that much myself.

      1. I don’t know about ch 5 but 4 is also changing. I mentioned that on previous blog. I’m glad they are updating. I was just able to reschedule the POD for Saturday so I could have a delivery slot then in case everyone else has to reschedule too and some are flipped to Monday.

  7. Upside down El Nino pattern. The 6-10 is going to show below normal precipitation across the South and below normal temperatures across the Northeast. 😉

  8. Re-Post, if you do not mind:

    JpDave says:
    February 4, 2016 at 3:22 PM
    Good afternoon,

    Well not surprised that Boston is in the Winter Storm Warning area.
    What time did they do it?

    Here is the latest 18Z 32km NAM snow map. Stays the course

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    12km NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020418/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

    4km NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020418/nam4km_asnow_neus_12.png

    WRF_ARM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016020412/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

    WRF-NMM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016020412/wrf-nmm_asnow_neus_48.png

  9. TK – Is your 6-9 including Boston as well?

    I am confused as to where the “I-95” belt is. I better understand 128, I-95 corridor, etc.

  10. Here is the HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRRX (Experimental) Area: NE Date: 04 Feb 2016 – 18Z

    Total snow ending 1PM tomorrow:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016020418/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    1 hour snowfall ending 1PM tomorrow

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016020418/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    This run shows snow ending sometime around 2 PM or a tad before that.

    This shows that the flip to snow is somewhere aroun 5AM in Boston and earlier N&W.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016020418/t3/1hsnw_t3sfc_f16.png

    1. CMC-HRDPS / Quebec (mesh: 2.5 km interpolated to 5 km) total qpf

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=12&type=PR&hi=012&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

      12Z UKMET-G / Quebec (mesh: 17 km interpolated to 125 km) total QPF for tomorrow:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR&hi=012&hf=048&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

      as a reminder:

      25 mm = .98 inch
      30 mm = 1.18 inch
      40 mm = 1.58 inch
      50 mm = 1.97 inch

      FWIW, Ukmet nails us in the Tues/Wednesday time frame.

      MeteoFrance-ARPEGE / North America (mesh: 7 to 35 km, interpolated to 50 km) total qpf

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=arpege&run=12&type=PR&hi=000&hf=096&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

      DWD-ICON / North America (mesh: 7 to 13 km interpolated to 25 km) total qpf

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=dwd_icon&hi=012&hf=048&type=PR&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

      Now those are 4 JUICED models. 😀 😀 😀

  11. I am very curious how, within 1 to 2 miles of the coast starting around Hull/Hingham, this event unfolds.

    I’ve seen mostly rain in Brant Rock and 5 miles west at Route 3, 6″ of snow.

    We’ve either been way too warm or really cold this season. We haven’t yet had a storm where the cold air is trying to move in on a northerly breeze off of the 43F ocean down here. Interested to see if there’s a tight gradient near the shoreline.

  14. Ch 5 seems to be outlier with less in area where 4 and 7 (and if I understand correctly TK) are predicting more.

    TK – I apologize if I have misunderstood your area of 6-9. My fault and not your explanation.

    1. I’d put you on the line of the 3-6 / 6-9 area. 5 or 6 sounds good for your neck of the woods.

  16. The only other thing I’d be throwing out on this event is that I wonder if the models have the actual intensity of it yet ?

    They seem to be in catch up mode. Now in the NWS discussion are the words dynamic system, wind gusts to 30 or 40 and each run seems to increase the amounts.

    There’s time for another cycle of runs before the system arrives.

    1. There may be a bit of truth to that but it’s screaming along so the impact there will be minimized, other than to enhance some snow banding just in from the east coast of MA.

  17. Thinking with all of the variables at play, could be 4″ to 6″ of cement snow in parts of MetroWest… which is brutal for clearing walkways/driveways.

    Hopefully it gets cold enough and we end up with a bit more that’s easier to move.

      1. It’s not going to melt in 2-3 days in most locations in the jackpot zone. Yes it does not get super cold right behind this, but it doesn’t get that warm either. This one, I’m afraid, has to be moved, or you’ll end up with melt/freeze nightmare after a few days.

    2. The zone of the atmosphere where the snow will be generated will be pretty cold, so that will lighten up the snow. Not powder, but not mashed potatoes, in the jackpot zone.

      1. I thought so. NWS said low ration.

        Looks to be aout -10C in snow growth zone. Isn’t that good
        for a reasonable ratio????

  18. Looks like the nws is slowly pushing those lesser amounts further and further inland, with more north and west and southwest, with 1-3 south and southeast, would suprise me to continue to see that trend overnight

    My mistake vicki tomorrow’s ceremony is at the ri federal court house at 1, then we are going to hemmanways restaurant at 4

  20. 18Z RGEM is cranking. IT has it turning to snow in Boston by 4AM.
    Looks like at least 8 hours and perhaps a tAd more of pretty heavy snow.

  21. Amazing how much different tomorrow’s forecast has become. Two days ago Friday looked dry. Shows how little we really know I guess- our models nailed the mid-Atlantic blizzard from 7-10 days out yet couldn’t get this one less than three days out.

    Almost starting to wonder now if jackpots may be more out towards Worcester and the Merrimack Valley. And perhaps total QPF over 2″ on the Cape? Pretty remarkable. I’ll guess 6″ snowfall for Boston though. 5″ Providence. Jackpot of 10″ somewhere along the Pike between Boston and Worcester. Will be interested, as per usual in a situation like this, in the 0z soundings. Have to see what it’s really doing upstairs vs. what’s being projected.

    1. Some people hate the term “inexact” but it’s exactly correct in describing meteorology as a science.

      1. Interesting comment, TK. It sure is exactly correct. I suspect that applies to many sciences. But I can see that people would hate the term because, for one, it means they do not have control. It is human nature to dislike uncertainty, I think.

    1. I expect that to be changing to reduce the amount of snow in southern bristol and plymouth counties as well as closer to the canal. Move the whole thing north and west by about 40 miles

    2. Move that 50 miles north and west, I’m really beginning to see rain south of Boston will hamper accumulations, Taunton could see only an inch or 2, while Milford mass received 6 inches, and less than an inch in Plymouth.

      1. If anything, it nudges the other way and the heavier amounts indeed get closer to the South Shore, South Coast, and Cape Cod.

  26. That’s pretty decent model agreement. I have spoken to very trusted colleagues. I may still tweak my #’s a bit but there is no need to change them yet, this soon. I cannot rule out a double-digit amount in a couple locations. All it will take is an extra tenth inch off my top range amount.

  27. re: snow ratio
    I posted this earlier. NWS says the snow growth region for this event will
    be approximately 600MB

    Using the Euro

    700mb temp at 8Am = -4C
    500 mb tmep =-14C
    Split the diff and say 600 mb = -9C

    then according to the following chart ratio should be “about” 11:1

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LJZ5ArmANJQ/TRPKWIgi5JI/AAAAAAAABbo/wWvJWqSV8xE/s1600/snowratio.png

    Allowing for error, would not a 10:1 ration seem reasonable or at least possible
    regardless of what the surface temperature is?????

    1. Sounds about right. This will be fairly lightweight given the lack of “real” cold. Again, not powder, but not potatoes.

      1. Happy to see we are in sync on this. Makes me feel good.

        This is truly an amazing turn of events the last day and 1/2 or
        so. We go from OTS to Winter Storm Warning. Pretty cool

        AND, we are still likely to get something tuesday/wednesday.

  30. hmm, it is still a tad early in the 18Z GFS run, BUT it looks to be portraying a much
    stronger and more moisture laden system for Tuesday than previously depicted.
    We shall see. I smell a BIGGIE

    1. Wrapping in pretty tight to the Cape. Clearly inside of benchmark.
      80mb 0C line remaining on the Cape.

    2. Can’t forecast a single amount really. It has to be a range. And I agree with the 6-8 range for that area. It will have changed to snow by 5AM, or just about to. Their 6-8 inches will come in about 5 hours between 6AM and 11AM before the rate lessens considerably.

  33. Interesting tweet from NY Metro Weather.
    Models trending much more amplified w/ incoming shortwave on Fri. We are now dealing with impressive dynamics

  34. NWS out of Upton, NY mentioned in their morning discussion there was room for a more north west track with this low. Good job Upton picking up on that.

  36. I remember a storm back in March 2005 it was pouring rain in morning with mild temps but by afternoon low pressure off coast deepened and ended up with several inches of wet snow which had a great impact on PM Commute that day. This feels similar but don’t think this low deepens that much but still looks to produce several inches of snow.

  38. I have to be in north Attleboro from Dedham at 9am. Then back to Dedham by 11am, then back to Providence by 12:30. Then drive to dinner for 4. 🙂

    1. You’re going to have some travel issues at mid to late morning, so allow extra time and of course, patience.

  39. Harvey was confident in 4-8 inches, was confident also in that more snow will accumulate on grass than pavement as the 1st couple inches could go down drain before the heavier bands come through between 7-10am. In this case tk do u agree?? And how do they measure something like this? So if you measure on pavement it could be 4-5 inches, and grassy areas 6-7 inches? Thank you!!

    1. You measure on an official snow board if you are an official observation station. If an amateur observer, you can make your own snowboard or use a surface that is the same temperature as outside and in a favorable spot to catch all the snow that falls without being overly subjected to wind.

  41. A rather toasty 42F here in Plymouth, NH. 17F atop Mt. Washington. Freezing level there around 2500′.

  42. Ernie boch voting for trump and announces it. Wow!! Why would he ever announce that? Especially here! He owns a business!! What a dummy!! You just keep it to yourself especially when you own multiple dealerships in a democratic state. Dummy!!!

      1. He doesn’t need to, Ernie boch owns huge businesses all over Massachusetts, this isn’t about just not liking him because of his vote, this is going to hurt his pockets, again he’s a dummy!!! At the sametime I think what happen to free speech, I guess you can, but boch is going to see a drop in sales, guaranteed!!! Actually it’s sad too

      2. It’s not about how much is on the ground at 6 or 7AM. The city is big and the streets are being shared not only by children that walk, but buses, and commuters. Sure less will be on the road, but enough will be there to create a hazard. This is the correct decision.

  46. Eric fisher said if this were last year, this would be a 2ft snowstorm, he said this year is much different. Also he did say he’s having issues with how much snow melts before it starts accumulating tomorrow morning.

  48. Boston is a huge city. Many parents need to plan ahead for child care. They have not had a school day. Kids get left at bus stops or without care. If parents complain, tough. common sense tells you Boston made the right call for the sake of the kids.

  49. Good tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    Can’t stress this enough. Heavy snowfall rates —> big time road impacts even if temps above 32. Precipitation intensity will be everything

  50. FWIW, the 12z “parallel” ECMWF was again close to the operational for tomorrow, actually an inch or two higher on snow totals this time with a very similar geographic distribution.

    Also, much juicier for next week’s event than the operational. About 1″ QPF for Boston on that one, all snow. I have a feeling it could be on to something there, other models so far are a bit slower to catch on but trending in that direction. Lots of moving parts, but I think this could be one of the few cases this winter where they do indeed link up for a more classic snowstorm, albeit likely not a blockbuster.

    2. Wx, I agree totally. I liked the everything from the operational, but qpf seemed a bit low to me based on the dynamics. Perhaps it will correct.

      Also, in looking at the 18Z GFS, sure looked like there was room for
      more intensification of that system.

      I think we get it pretty good from that one.

      Let’s be conservative and say Logan gets 6 inches tomorrow. That would make
      nearly 17 and let’s say 8 inches on Tuesday, that would get Logan to
      25 inches and the lower end of Tk’s seasonal total.

      I HOPE these 2 systems deliver.

  51. JJ NAM showed some of those dynamics. This thing is getting bigger and stronger.
    would NOT surprise me to see 2 inch per hour rates for a few hours tomorrow morning.

  52. Hmmm Boston has no school. I am wondering if my office will be open.
    I got a fresh staff emergency telephone spreadsheet and uploaded it to our
    robo call company in preparation for tomorrow “just in case”

    I suspect I may be awoken about 5-5:30 AM tomorrow.

    If the Executive Director only sees routine snow at that hour, could be we
    open. Here’s hoping she looks out the window and sees the 2 inch per hour rate.
    If she sees rain because it hadn’t turned yet, we will be open. Right on the edge. 😀

  54. Temp down to 41 in Coventry, CT and steadily falling. No issues here with this being an all snow event by the time the precip starts.

    1. That brought a smile to my face.
      We may still have a period of Rain here in the City, but I know
      the COLD WILL BE HERE above at least, so as soon as the intensity kicks in,
      I suspect it will flip fairly quickly. We shall see.

  55. Hold onto to your Hats bloggers. HRRR Model Fields – Experimental
    Model: HRRRX (Experimental) Area: NE Date: 04 Feb 2016 – 21Z

    Showing a general 8-10 inches across much of the area, with pockets of 10-12 inches.

    Snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour for several hours.

    Going to be an interesting day. OH, btw HRRR doesn’t showing end in Boston until
    4PM.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016020421/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f24.png

    What was going to be OTS and then just a coastal situation, now throws snow
    all the way back to the Hudson valley. Incredible.

    1. Open to newly closed waves on fronts many times are more poorly handled by models than fully developed systems.

      But this is the real reason: Remember the other day I said that something will happen Friday because it’s National Weatherpersons Day? Guilty!

  56. Only down 2 degrees since 5pm, currently at 48 here, dp at 32 and has been steady since this afternoon. Waiting for a change.

  57. What is timing of event and will it go right to heavy/inch per hour type snow?

    Thank you

    45 here…down several degrees

    1. Vicki, not TK here, but Where you are, my feeling is as soon as it gets going
      with any kind of intensity you should go over. Gut says within the hour.

      Here it may take 1-3 hours. Just do not know yet.

  59. Tk, today is the day for emails. I just left one as I have a video I’d like to post, BUT
    want your approval before I do so. 😀 😀 😀

    HILARIOUS!!! One of the funniest things I have ever seen in my life!!!

        2. You post the link, just attach a language warning to it. That’s all I really care when posting stuff. 🙂

  61. There may be a Winter Storm Warning for this area, but there’s an Evander Kane warning in effect for the part of Boston that is in Buffalo tonight. 😉

    2. 🙂 lol
      I try to use the German translation as much as possible, but there are definitely times which call for it to be spoken in English, loudly and proudly! 🙂

  63. Thank you for help above with fast accumulation

    Last question. What time is it expected to start? I think 4:00 but not sure thanks again

    1. Vicki you will change to snow many hours before Boston will. You will probably start off as snow as Boston will have rain till 5am, the changeover in Boston between 5-6am

    1. Everything is going along just as expected. When that precip comes in and picks up, those temps will crash.

  65. Out running errands. Raining in the city.
    Large drops. Very cold. Hopefully
    Indicative of cold above.
    Car reads 48 but feels colder.

  68. Heading home for Black List.
    We have a freshening Northerly
    Wind. Makes me wonder if we get more
    Wind than forecast????

  69. I’m reminded by a friend/met that NHC did a post analysis on Hurricane Patricia and found that the max winds were not 200 MPH, but 215 MPH.

    2. Thanks TK !!!!!! Went over to the NHC and peaked through that report. There is some amazing data from that storm including a 32.2C temp reading at 700mb. Unbelievable !!!! What a heat engine that thing was.

    1. Daughters both waiting still. They are as bad as the kids. But then I’m worse. I still get excited about no school days

  73. I know snowfall amounts are important, but I wonder if the focus should really be on a snow blitz over a small window of time.

    Somewhere, businesses and/or superintendents are going to look out the window at 5:30-6 am, see rain and understandably not make any cancellations. And then at 7am, it will have turned to heavy snow and there’ll be chaos on the roads.

    I selfishly am hoping that Marshfield is not that area, but I think it might be.

    1. I agree Tom. I told my kids this a bit ago…not because of any knowledge but because reading here made me think it might well be intense quickly and the timing was not good.

      1. Don’t fall into the hype of a weather blog that is going to hype the storm, we are weather enthusiasts, and human nature is to hype, no offense included. If it’s raining in the morning, and over by noon, everyone is safe!!! I don’t understand

        1. After all of that, you’re just going to go right back there? Hype?

          WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE FRIGGING STORM!

          ENOUGH!

        2. I’m not talking about tk, he doesn’t hype, I’m talking about the bloggers, however I do like all the bloggers they want snow, again no offense intended, and it’s totally understandable. There’s no reason to cancel school to cancel school, just my opinion, and never before even flakes fall.

              1. Charlie I like you but yes he will toss you . Your not having a good week here man . If one gets up early tomorrow like me at 2:30 yes it may be raining but by 7 we will be in a snow storm and it will be coming down hard.

  74. NWS in Upton not going with 0z NAM as they upgraded Middlesex and New London Counties in CT to winter storm warning.

      1. Thanks that depends . A lot of ground to cover . 3 hrs OT tomorrow I suspect tomorrow night and maybe roofs Saturday so depends on when it stops and how much the back Bay Area gets all seem to think the 4-8 range is in place probably on high end.

    1. I know no one here wants to go with 00z nam, but I’ve been waiting to see what it comes in with considering it has the best data

  77. Tk i was in woburn about an hour ago or so and there was what looks to be sleet for a little bit I swear no joke, however temperatures were in the upper 40’s?

  81. 00z NAM 32km, 12km, 4km all pretty consistent in max snowfall of 6-9 inches in eastern MA.

    2. 🙂 🙂 🙂 my 3rd favorite sport behind football and rugby, love the Celtics even when they stink.

  84. I actually love the anticipation of a snow event, and I love following the models and really everything about the weather. What I don’t like is after its done, what’s left behind. I don’t like the mess, or the salt that dirtys everything. id rather have these smaller type storms (under 6inches) there not so invasive (so to speak). I do love the weather though, especially thunderstorms and hurricanes. 🙂

  87. RGEM… Same idea.
    I may have to up-tweak the snow on Cape Cod as they may get a big burst at the end.

  89. Fox 25 has been most consistent with widespread 4-6 inches, but says snow won’t stick to roads in Boston till after 7 or 8am. Interesting

  91. How do you think we will do in Woburn TK? Funny when I asked this question a little over 12 hours ago it was 1-3″ ha.

      1. Thank you sir. Time to bust out the roof rake. Might have a coworker who runs a snow blow business just do my driveway. Old age setting in ha.

  93. I could hear some form of precip….I suspect just rain….about 10 minutes ago but can no longer hear. A stray cloud 🙂

  95. TK another question…seems to be some different end times floating around. For us any guess? Was hoping for early afternoon to clean before dark. Saw some models were 4pm?

    1. just like snow can fall when its 38 degrees out, sleet can fall when it seems like it would be to warm.

  98. My wife just called and said theres sleet mixing in with the rain. She’s on her way home from her parents in west Roxbury

    1. Yes it definitely was sleeting. I observed sleet 3 separate times woburn, somerville and Boston. The precipitation isn’t even tat heavy, so this isn’t part of dynamic cooling or cold column temperature. I don’t understsnd how it is sleeting when thetemperatures was almost 50, even thr radar looked like light spotty showers

      1. By the looks of the radar and some of the short range guidance, I think we are going to get into the action pretty good here in central/eastern CT as well.

  105. Radar really starting to fill in and it’s a stream of moisture extending all the way back to eastern SC heading up towards us. Either the timing of this thing has sped up or we are in for it pretty good here. Did not expect the snow to start this early.

  106. The sleet is a bit of a surprise with the warm surface temps. Indicates it is a bit colder aloft than expected.

    2. Yea as i mentioned before, it was sleeting in woburn as early as 9 pm. Its fascinating considering how warm it was

      1. You were right on the button. And it coincided with enhanced precipitation generated at mid levels. The area moved through fairly quickly but it was indeed there.

  107. Rain/mix until dawn. Then the accumulating snow rapidly commences. Drive carefully tomorrow and don’t be fooled by wet early am roads as conditions will rapidly deteriorate shortly thereafter.

  108. May have to adjust start time closer to 5 rather than 7 as temps continue to cool more rapidly than I expected. 38 in Westwood.

  109. NWS has expanded the winter storm warnings further west into my county (Tolland). All 4 eastern counties in CT now included!

    2. And increased their area of 6-8 as well as added an 8-12 zone near northern RI and nearby southern MA. Of course they have set ranges so this doesn’t surprise me given the max potential.

  111. The warm air is really right at the surface now. This is not one of those situations where warm air coming in aloft limits snow. It’s going the other way. And for how mild it is, even with precipitation around, it’s surprisingly dry at the surface. Dew point temps 25-30 in eastern MA while it’s still in the middle 40s with precipitation reaching the ground. That shows you that it’s cold AND saturated just above. And that temp is going to go down FAST when we get the solid precipitation in here. If we get a moderate band into Metro West it could be snowing there by 3AM, if not before.

  112. Just took a look at the 12z GFS. Nice moderate to low end warning snow storm on Tuesday but not too far off from something a little bigger. Ensemble mean looks good with the low tracking right over the benchmark.

    Major cold air depicted for next weekend after a clipper passes next Friday – single digits and teens for highs? The cold air sticks around for a storm threat around the 16th and another threat around the 20th/21st.

    Finally a decent wintery look to the long range.

    2. Yes indeed. We were expecting this turn in February. This may even be a little earlier than I had envisioned. But I guess mother nature is impatient. 😛

  113. TK does this earlier onset mean it is out of here faster or are we in for a longer period of accumulating snow?

    1. It will add about an hour to the accumulation – not a huge difference in the total since the early part is still going to be fighting marginal surface air and warm ground. I wouldn’t really change amounts at this point except possibly to add to the total near Cape Cod. I’ll be tweaking that for the morning update.

  114. TK – You mentioned earlier that one of your professors said that it is easier to snow right after a warm day than a cold one (if I understood you correctly). Can you explain in more detail why this is?

    Also, could Boston see a foot today? Or very close?

    1. To be honest, I think it’s really more like 50/50. We can snow coming out of either warm or cold. I think his bias was based on a number of cases in which we saw strong cold advection but a slow-moving front, low pressure coming up along it, and rain to snow right after a warm day. Other times, coming out of cold we’d see strong warm advection and even though we started far below freezing it would warm aloft and then at the surface and go to mix/rain.

  115. Enhanced area of precipitation over my location produced brief rain/snow mix around 1:45AM. Back to light rain as it moved away.

  116. At midnight obs. all locations including Cape and Islands reporting winds N or NW. I find it very interesting considering a good size storm is approaching. One would expect especially coastal locations out of the E, NE or SE.

  117. Moderate burst of snow and 36 degrees in Coventry, CT. Slushy accumulation beginning to form on the deck.

  118. And as you mention the wind Philip – I should note that it is really starting to whip up here as well. We have had a few decent gusts blowing the flakes around.

  119. Neither the 0z Euro or 0z Canadian like the Tuesday storm at all. Both explosively develop the Monday ocean storm and brush eastern New England with it Monday night into early Tuesday. In fact the Euro has 24+ hours of light snow with the first system across eastern MA accumulating 4″. The Tuesday storm is a complete miss on both models, unlike the GFS which puts the focus on the Tuesday system.

    Is this a trend? Both the Euro and Canadian seem to be bringing the Monday storm stronger and closer with each run.

  125. Now snow starting to stick to the pavement outside my window.
    Easy call for superintendents here in CT to close school today.

  127. Went to bed near Midnight and it was sleeting. Woke up and 3 and it was raining.
    I was surprised because with the sleet, I expected an earlier changeover. Oh well,
    it’s here now. Don’t think we lost all that much as it was NOT raining hard.
    Woke up again at 5:23 and it was snowing like crazy and looked like it had just changed. Still snowing quite heavily now with grass and car tops with a good 1/2 coating. Streets still just wet, but that will change shortly. 😀

    I guess I’m up for the day now. Have my annual physical at 8AM. Office is 2 miles
    away, so I guess I’ll go anyway. No call from work, so looks like that is on as well.

    Let it snow.

    Re: Tuesday
    NOT IMPRESSED AT ALL.

    Monday’s system is doing it in. As Mark posted, does the Monday
    system get us instead like originally depicted by the Euro days ago????
    That one becomes a monster!!!

    2. RE; Monday from NWS

      SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE…AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED…GENERATES A
      SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
      NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
      WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
      COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
      CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

  130. A nice band of heavy snow just set up in Worcester county, would love to see that pinwheel into MetroWest.

  132. Snowing pretty close to a moderate clip here. Went from wet roads at 5am to half hour later snow starting to accumulate on the pavement.

  133. 6Am obs

    Rain/snow mix at Airport.
    Still RAIN Beverly and Lawrence of all places. I think that obs is suspect.
    So looks like it is slow to change at the coast.

    Still snowing quite heavily here. Roads still wet, but showing signs of a thin
    slush developing on them.

    1. Precip intensity is lighter north of you JpDave and I suspect with such marginal current temps, it is light rain to your north.

      1. Appears so Tom. Interesting. To the SW it is SNOW.
        I am sure still rain in Marshfield. Good luck getting it to
        transition there. 😀

        1. 🙂 Indeed.

          School has been cancelled, so I haven’t been motivated to peak out the window yet, so, I’m not sure what it’s doing out now.

          I liked the explanation for the cancellation …. Due to expected snowfall and poor afternoon driving conditions …

          1. That’s Funny.

            Eric was befuddled by all the cancellations last night on the 11PM broadcast. He said for 4-8 inches. Then he said well it’s Friday and there have been no snow days this Winter, so why not.
            😀

    1. John, it was a “little” later than I expected, but it Got here.
      Take it easy with all of your clean up efforts.

  137. Some bigger flakes mixing in. Also, street is now covered at one end, thin slush
    at other end. Sidewalks all snow covered now. Beginning to look very Wintry out there. 😀

  138. Turned to snow in Taunton in the last 30 minutes. Middleborough Schools called off classes right before 6 am. Snow starting to accumulate on the grass and it’s down to 32.4 degrees here in the western end of Taunton. Everyone be safe and enjoy the day!

  139. To be perfectly honest, I expected a little bit more in the intensity department.
    Snow is only moderate at best with vis in the neighborhood of 1/2 to 3/4 mile
    at times. I expected it to be heavier with vis down around the 1/4 mile mark.
    NOT there currently, that’s for sure. still coming down decently, but not what
    it could be.

  140. Intensity REALLY lightened up here. Vis up to over 1 mile.
    I think it is only temporary. I see a small lighter echo area on radar.

    1. Needham should have cancelled. They are in the JACKPOT zone!
      Hope she does not have to drive far. She at the High School?
      You live in Needham? I was born there and lived on Manning Street not far
      from the high School.

      Be safe

      1. Yeah same here Dave. My wife teaches in needham and we live in quincy. I’m pretty pissed! I think it’s going to be a dangerous drive…

  142. Peeked out…heavy coating…areas under trees still green. Pretty if it would stop now. Back to bed!

  144. Salt truck just backed down my street and the drove back out spreading salt.
    Street totally covered with snow. Despite how warm it was, that did not take long
    at all.

  145. Careful to anyone who has to go to work this morning and in addition to anyone who has to shovel this cement snow which it will feel like since it is a wet snow.

    1. I’m headed out in about an hour.
      I have a Dr. appt at 8 and then to the office. Will report on how the roads
      are etc. later.

  146. As this system moves up and intensifies I can’t help but think that those heavier
    echoes will rotate NorthWestward a reasonable distance and really lay down the snow.
    The tighter the system winds up, the more likely that is to happen. The more it
    remains a wave on the front, then what you see is all you will see.

  148. Out and about and all main roads are wet, back roads are slushy, about a half inch to 3/4 inch in my travels from Dedham to Mansfield. Temp has gone back and forth between 33-34 degrees. Just a light snow, not to heavy yet.

  149. A mix of rain and wet snow.

    I think as the upper level disturbance gets closer, the layers above will continue to cool just enough and thats what will continue to flip things to snow.

    My guess is the most profitable accumulation time will be 8 or 9 am to 2pm.

    1. If its the same as my house, then its a combination of moderate rain and big snow flakes.

      Wind is picking up some too, pelting the north side windows.

      1. I noticed at 6AM wind was gusting to 22 mph at Worcester.
        That is elevated and way inland, so I believe wind will be
        a player today. At the airport, only 9 mph.

  153. Snowing harder now. Vis back down to about 1/2 mile or so. Still waiting for the good stuff. More than an inch on the ground.

  154. Based on radar, it appears that the heaviest snow is associated with the rain/snow line. There are currently very deep blues in SE MA with the transition.

  155. Tweet from Chris Lambert
    Boom! Thundersnow between NYC and Newark New Jersey. Potent little storm.

  157. i do not understand umass boston, its a commuting school, they are trying so hard to make it a dorming school and they are acting like they are. We have classes today despite the weather. If this is going to be a repeat thing I think I am going to be sending an angry letter.

  158. Updating… Not going to be too long an update this time because I’m just tweaking today and not making any significant changes to anything else yet. I’m going to be out of the “office” from 7:30AM to when I get home and finish shoveling/snowblowing later today. Will be able to check in mobile at times.

  160. Waking up this morning I really expected the heaviest snow to be during the commute hence the main reasoning behind the school closings. Much to my surprise and echoing OS’s comments the snow is moderate at best. Approaching 1″ but definitely manageable.

  161. Roads got bad real fast here in Woburn as the snow picked up.
    School closing was the right move. It’s not like we’ve had many, or any, of those yet. 🙂

    Blog updated!

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