Saturday Forecast

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)…
Broad low pressure passing north of New England has put us into its warm sector after a period of warm frontal snow in much of southern New England late last night. Accumulations were modest, generally from nothing to a coating, which has since melted as the temperature climbed above freezing early this morning, and will continue to head for the lower 50s in many areas during the day as clouds eventually give way to sun. This storm’s so-called cold front will pass tonight and only knock temperatures down a tick or 2 for Sunday, still quite mild for the season, though like today, if you are outside you’ll have to deal with a gusty breeze, which will diminish later Sunday. A weak and fast-moving low pressure area will come racing along from the west southwest Sunday night and deliver a period of rain-to-snow to a good portion of southern New England, though favoring southern areas more than to the north. Any snow accumulation from this system will also be minor, and it will be gone by Monday. But it’s an active pattern right now, and yet another storm, this one larger, will threaten the region by Wednesday. The range of outcomes with that system is very wide at this stage, so no sharp detail will be attempted in this outlook at this point.
TODAY: Cloudy start with lingering sprinkles of rain then decreasing clouds and a sunnier afternoon. Highs upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Sunny start then increasing high cloudiness probably blotting out the sun by the end of the day. Highs middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, then changes to snow with minor accumulation, ending by about dawn. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming mostly NE to N.
MONDAY: Early clouds especially Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Storm of snow/mix/rain likely. Temperatures mostly in 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-29)…
The final days of February will likely be active but with low confidence on any details we’ll summarize it as a storm with a chance of rain/mix February 25, and another risk of unsettled weather in the February 27-29 period, and sort out the details as we get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)…
The early days of March look colder than normal with a dry start and then a storm threat following.

111 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you TK for the Saturday update.

    Models indicate weak system passes well south of us tomorrow night
    with no precipitation here. Curious as to your crystal ball reading for rain to snow
    tomorrow night? For some reason you think the models have handled the situation
    incorrectly and you think it will pass Farther North. Would be most curious to know
    your reasoning?

    D0 you think the 500MB will amplify a bit more than being modeled?

    Many thanks

    1. its a northern stream system I think and the models this year are not handling them well with the amount of moisture

  2. 12Z NAM is complete.
    NO precip for tomorrow night.
    Goes with the Bernie theme of a first weaker storm moving up the coast, close
    or just off shore. Followed by a more potent system.

    Surface Tuesday evening

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016022012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    You can see the second system just beginning to get organized in the area
    from Oklahoma to Alabama. Not sure which set of moisture becomes the storm. But based on other models, I think it will be the blob near Oklahoma (not a good position for us. The other area would be better. Perhaps the ALabama area becomes
    a 2nd storm and the big one lays back for a 3rd? probably not. These 2 areas
    become one I suppose.)

    Anyhow, here is the 500 MB chart Tuesday evening. You can see the potent
    energy near Oklahoma.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016022012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    1. In that Tuesday night/Wed. AM it could give us something, perhaps
      even snow, depending upon exact track. It is the system hanging back that
      worries me. That is destined for the Lakes or “Just” East of the Lakes.

      1. if that first area of low pressure slows, that second one will be bounced further south. Look at the elongated high to the north as well. I forget the term used for it when the high is well to the east but it elongates itself westward. Can clearly see that on the nam. Which makes me hesitant to call anything after monday

  3. My educated guess for the middle of next week for SNE: one big MESS; a fairly typical complex `March’ storm or set of storms that tends to deliver more rain than snow to coastal regions, but, tends to deliver more snow than rain or mix to north country. Quite frankly, I disagree with Eric Fisher when he said yesterday that we’ve had a lot of these snow-to-rain systems this winter. I can think of a few, perhaps, but what I remember most are many very warm storms with systems tracking hundreds and hundreds of miles west (all rain) or storms that are so far off the coast (hundreds of miles east) that they only give us relatively small amounts of snow, and nothing up north. This winter has been very odd in this respect. We haven’t had a lot of the kinds of systems we will likely get mid week; ones where SNE is a kitchen sink, and ski country gets a healthy dose of snow. All one has to do is look at the rather incredible lack of snow up north thus far this winter. It should be noted that ski country did get a little snow last night – several inches in the White Mountains, for example.

  4. Tweets from Bernie Rayno
    here what has come into focus,the second piece is the storm. Do I buy where all the models have it going..Not a chance. do I know? not yet

    The only thing the models have come into focus with is that the second piece is the storm, the track will continue move around all weekend

    back on twitter later today. It always amazes me how quickly everyone just accepts the track of a model. Additional changes are coming

    1. The man always seems to make sense.

      re: second piece is the big one
      That is the theme. See my post above from the NAM.

      Right in line with what he says.

  5. I disagree with Eric too. That’s not an accurate assessment at least the way I understood it.

    I’m thrilled because this Winter was very forecastable, as a season, despite the models inability to handle certain aspects of the short to medium range pattern.

    As for the actual pattern, I haven’t been surprised by anything I’ve seen. And that not only applies to here, but globally. The tropical cyclone about to pound Fiji is actually quite common for that basin. There were a boat load of power house cyclones in the 1990s. Our ability to measure the intensity of these systems has gotten incredibly better in the last 20 years. We’re able to see them better than ever. The vast majority of them do not travel directly (center) over relatively tiny islands, however. And that should make sense. Think about the percentage of land to water out there. It all becomes quite simple to understand, really. This was my area of expertise along with agricultural forecasting for many years in the private sector.

  6. Necn has bought into the all rain solution for all of southern New England at there 10:15 am update. There thinking 50+ Degrees on Wednesday, the main precip comes through on Wednesday. Still 3-4 days away so it can change.

    1. I wonder if Logan has 56F to 58F or so in it this afternoon if there’s decent sun and the wind comes around a little to just SW ????

      1. Possibly Tom as the sun just came out. I think there is a very good chance . I’m hoping this warm day will help the water in the spa . It’s been set since late yesterday to 100 degrees as of last check it was at 71 degrees.

  7. As the GFS runs …. it seems to me that a few days ago, the northern stream system lagged behind the southern stream system.

    But now, a more potent southern stream system in the form of a 1004 mb low in the Texas Panhandle lags the northern stream system. It also looks stronger than previous runs.

    My guess is this is going to be projected as an intense storm over the far eastern Great Lakes region as the 12z GFS run continues.

  8. 12Z GFS has NO initial system and resolves itself into the biggie headed right
    for the LAKES!! Been Very consistent with the LAKES theme!

      1. Yes ….. Perhaps some severe weather possibilities in the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida area ….. and maybe even a thundershower up here.

          1. For sure ….. I wonder if El Niño fading quickly (it currently is in the easternmost Nino zone) opens us up to a very late season snowstorm (mid to late March)

  9. For the midweek system, if the energy from the Lakes and the southern stream energy phase, we are dealing with one large storm developing and cutting way west resulting in 50s and rain here like we had this week. If the southern stream wave comes out sooner and misses the phase like the CMC and some ensembles are showing, we will be dealing with a weaker but colder system riding up the coast with more snow and mix potential at least inland. Then the second follow up storm is in turn weaker and doesn’t cut as far west either. Just not going to have a handle on it for another 36-48 hours when the energy comes on shore from the Pacific.

  10. I’d be more comfortable if it wasn’t the GFS and Euro showing the big phased storm solution vs the CMC. Though it is interesting the CMC is the one not showing it as that model tends to phase and over amplify things a lot. Watch it cave at 12z.

    1. No matter how you slice, not looking good. Sure there will be some changes, but a dramatic shift to a coastal is probably not in the cards.

      The best bet is the scenario you laid out.

      We shall see.

  11. I know TK mentions it in his long range outlook and the 12z GFS continues the signal of quite a cold shot heading into the U.S. at the end of February/start of March.

    1. Yes, and with that comes a couple of snow chances – what probably will be our best chances the rest of this winter.

    1. 54F at Logan, up 9F the last 2 hrs.

      At 10:30 am or so, the NWS noted that if the inversion breaks, there’s potential for mid 60s inland (I presume they mean away from the SW sea breeze off of the ocean south of us)

        1. At noon yesterday, I was visiting with my dad, who had the local news on. At 12:15pm came the weather and I was stunned seeing Chicago at 59F and St Louis at 71F, so that’s what got me thinking.

          And, some of those same areas are very mild again today, so I think overachieving temps are possible again Sunday in southern New England.

  12. 12Z Canadian grazes us tomorrow night/Monday AM with rain changing to wet snow.

    It misses on the phase again with the midweek storm and sends the initial wave largely out to sea (grazing us) while the second more powerful storm comes up the coast with a slug of rain. Still an ugly solution, even without the phase.

  13. This is random …..

    I think there’s enough of a signal over the last 3 to 5 days …… that I think March 1st to 10th will be well below normal temp wise and I’d guess in that time period, 5 to 10 inches of snow will be seen regionwide from 1 or 2 cold precipitation events.

    Of course, can’t time anything but the idea that March will open very winter like.

    We’ll see. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I would agree with your thoughts. I think between Feb 29th-March 4th looks like it’s been consistently showing some snow. I would like to add it also looks like it wants to rebound rather quickly after 1st week of March. I believe tk has been saying a cooler and possibly snow 1st week of March.

      I just saw a pic of last year same date. We had just passed 100 inches of snow. There was 3ft of snow, with 6ft snow banks everywhere. I think we can safely say, we will probably not see half of what we received last year. So far here we’ve received 23.4 inches. Enjoy the weekend!!

      1. Plus the forecast was more cold and more snow. Geez last winter was unbearable IMO. Glad we got a break this year.

  14. I think we are all done for snow threats this winter. I know I’m not supposed to say that but the models say in a week it will snow then it never happens. Reminds me of 2012 when the cold was coming but never came. Just my thoughts.

  15. Looking ahead we should do an over under how many times Taunton uses the word tornado when talking about thunderstorm potential. I think it was close to double digits last year.

  16. We have not had a bad tornado here in CT since July 10, 1989 the F4 tornado that struck Hamden, CT. Using todays fujita scale it would have been an F5.
    I know TK on his weather predictions for 2016 was mentioning the possibility of derecheos during the summer. I don’t if he still feels the same way now.

    1. If we put a ridge in the upper Midwest extending into the western Great Lakes, we’re going to be in prime spot for MCS / derecho type events. I think that will be case from May to July.

  17. You guys know better than to write off any additional snow chances the rest of the year….its only Feb 20!!

  18. This is the type of day I don’t mind being wrong on the temps. Pleasantly warmer than I had forecast. And I was outside for a while. Despite the gusty breeze it was very nice! A bit windy for a walk around an open field or pond, but overall very very nice.

    I think another run or 2 of a big low well west and that’s what we have, folks. I must admit I was never comfortable with this forecast going into it. I liked what Harvey said the other day: “I’m not smart enough to figure that one out yet” (referring to the midweek threat).

    Do we write snow off for the rest of winter / early spring? No, of course not. But I do believe with the upcoming pattern the chances are a bit limited. We’ll see what happens when we get some cold back into the picture. It doesn’t take much to get it to snow late winter / early spring around here.

  19. I don’t think of this as a “wrecked winter” at all. It’s just a winter – an El Nino influenced one. Being a lover of the variety, I love all the different kinds of seasons we can get here. Just look at winter itself: We have our prime ongoing example of a relatively mild El Nino winter, lacking snow though not as snowless as some winters have been. We still had super cold, though it was very brief. This is a great contrast to last year’s ‘tale of three winters’ when we went from relative mild tranquility to dry cold to insane snow and persistent cold as large scale patterns were slow to change. I’m glad that not every season is a carbon copy of the one before it, and even more so that every winter has its own personality. They don’t all have to be cold and snowy to make me happy. I love forecasting them and the challenge that presents, then seeing how it all works out. I like getting fooled by the weather. I don’t mind making a bad forecast as it teaches me, and as soon as we stop learning it’s because of one of 2 possible reasons: we’re no longer living, or we’re ignorant. I never want to be a perfect forecaster. I just want to be the best I can be and in that pursuit I will mess it up plenty of times and hopefully benefit from the lessons to be found in the mistakes.

  20. That storm threat in the February 27-29 is still very real, by the way. The difficulty in resolving the upcoming systems does not change this.

  21. Well, the NAM has joined the paraded and shows one big storm destined for the lakes.
    Closed 500 mb over Illinois!!

    SEE YA!

  22. GFS has just nudge a tad more Northward on the 18Z run for tomorrow night.
    Still a miss, but a bit closer.

  23. I would love to see a surprise on the 0z runs and this thing further northward.
    I am not counting on it though.

    1. So far I lean fair and cold because I think we’ll be just beyond a storm threat in the last couple days of February, but that timing is not even close to certain.

      1. So I can assume the threat will be 28-29.

        Hopefully snow on the ground will not deter those from voting.

        Thanks TK!

  24. Man the water is taking awhile to reach the 100 degree setting that it was set at . It only went up 10 degrees from 72 to 82. It is about 1500 gallons . The two of them went in real quick and it seemed strong .

  25. Not that I am paranoid, but the B’s mission in life must be to drive me crazy! That’s the only possible explanation. 🙂

  26. Can I just say that this winter sucks!!! I started back sking this year and there hardly any snow. I hope next year is much better

    1. should have started last year, probably the best conditions I saw. I had a few times that I was on wachusett and found myself with a bunch of powder, not packed, regular powder. My dad said that skiing last year reminded him of aspen.

  27. Worked from 7-4 and skiied from 6pm to 10:15 Yes I am that person that waits for that last lift or tries to make it. I brought my younger brother and His friend.

    I was very impressed, Yes it is not packed powder, yes it was crowded for the first hour or so, but no where near as busy as I thought, I believe the mix of the northerly faced trails, Not as many people as I thought( many not going thinking the conditions are crap) This was a good spring skiing evening, there was no wet snow turning to Ice. We practically had conifer to our selfs by 9pm

Comments are closed.