Sunday Forecast

117 Comments

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 3)…
No current changes to the discussion from yesterday, i.e., no changes in short term thinking and not confident enough beyond that to change anything that I wrote yesterday, so just an updated forecast…
TODAY: Clouds dominant morning. Sun dominant afternoon. Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers through midday, then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to WNW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain possibly ending as snow followed by late-day clearing. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)…
A broad low pressure trough carrying a couple of disturbances will bring chances for unsettled weather at times during this period along with temperatures near to slightly below normal. Too early to determine any kind of rain/mix/snow locations and intensity and timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)…
Fair weather returns early into mid period before the risk of unsettled weather returns beyond that. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

117 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. This one can pound away, it would be late Friday into early Saturday and the tides are coming off astronomical low tides. 🙂

      2. The EURO has led the way a lot recently, I think, even more than usual with the GFS coming it’s way 2 to 3 days before the event. So, I’m basically ignoring the medium and long range of the GFS

  3. Yesterday, during a rather chilly day, the inside of our car was downright toasty with the sun shining on it.

    Max sun angle at solar noon hits 40 degrees tomorrow for Boston. For comparison, it only maxes at 24 degrees at the winter solstice.

    1. Thanks for the info Tom. I fell asleep on the livingroom couch which sits in a southern exposed bow window. The sun felt great

      1. I’m sure it did …..

        Another great thing to do this time of year or in the late August – early October time frame ……. Watch 2 sunrises or 2 sunsets on clear days, separated by 5 days or so. It helps to have an object near the horizon to judge the sun against. It’s stunning to see how much the sun moves northward this time of year in a short period and southward in September. …. (Disclaimer, don’t look directly into the sun for the safety of your eyes.)

  5. This morning’s discussion from the NWS:

    THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…UNLIKE LAST NIGHT…WE HAVE TWO
    DIFFERENT CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST…THE
    GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND…THE CANADIAN…THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES STARTS THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND INTO THE MARITIMES. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING VASTLY DIFFERENT WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE BOTH COLD…THE SECOND WOULD BRING MUCH MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THIS LIKELY TO BE WINTRY WEATHER…AT THIS POINT…SNOW. DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

    1. CMC ensemble mean for the 5th

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016022800/gem_mslpa_us_27.png

      Pretty impressive when the ensembles develop a system that deeply. 1mb more then operational

      Not sure how that becomes the mean when one looks at all members

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=144

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=156

      1. Now you can see my reasoning for not committing to anything this far out. 🙂

        If I don’t know, I’m gonna tell ya I don’t know. 😀

        I still love Harvey’s quote: “I’m not smart enough to be able to figure that out yet.”

        2. Sure do. I was onto that right away.
          How do you feel when Euro and CMC have something and GFS does not? Throw out GFS OR proceed very cauti0usly?

          heading out be back later. 😀 Perhaps drop in via mobile??

          1. MJO says “DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN” and the CMC/ECMWF support this but the phase 7 to 8 into phase 1 are fairly weak, so the impact may not be as great (closer to GFS idea). So there is wiggle room.

    1. There has basically been no change in model behavior for the last couple weeks. Inconsistency at second best, consistently wrong at best.

  7. HOLY CRAP BATMAN.
    Look at the Cmc for 3/4,3/5.
    I am mobile else I would post link.
    It clobbers most of sne!!!

  8. Today’s 1st NON-WEATHER AccuWeather Triva Quiz.
    Why did “Leap Year” start?

    A. Moon / Tide cycles
    B. Wanted an extra day every 4 years
    C. Solar and Calendar year did not match up
    D. February is an awesome month

    Today’s 2nd NON-WEATHER AccuWeather Triva Quiz.

    What is the special name given to people born on February 29th. (Possibly 2 answers)

    A. Leprechauns
    B. Leaplings
    C. Leapers
    D. Lucky Leaps

    Answers later today.

    2. C and D

      Thank you, Longshot. I think your name is appropriate for the odds I have for these quizzes although today I have 50% confidence

      1. Oh good. We have the logical ones covered for #2 and I like when someone guesses different. I suspect you may have read enough to know I just do it to ….well, do it 😉

  9. Canadian Has been consistently showing a first storm as inland runner (like gfs)
    but then like the euro has a second storm. This model has been most consistant with giving the area a winter storm with moderate to heavy snowfall
    I wonder what the 12z euro shows.

  11. 57 degrees, neighbor burning brush, milky sky, daffodils up all over, robins, birds chirping. Late winter is a great time of year.

  12. 12Z Euro looks more suppressed than 0Z. Joining GFS an dmaking the CMC the
    Outlier? OR will it turn up the coast?

    500 mb and 300 mb say OTS WELL SOUTH of us.
    A couple more frames to go

    1. And the EURO says GOOD-BYE to the 3/5 event. SEE YA! Nice thinking about you!! If you are a snow lover, view the chart and WEEP. If not, rejoice.

      http://imgur.com/KQNRVuM

      Now to be sure, this is still 6 days out and things could change, but
      now 2 out of the big three say NO!!

      Not a good sign if you want snow. If you don’t want snow, it’s fantastic.

      Again, 6 days out. We will continue to monitor. The energy for this system is still off shore in the North pacific.

      1. I hope we are done with the snow in my opinion only. Put a ton of plantings in last fall and looking forward to that . I also had mason here last night looking to put a patio around the spa and just some construction projects that will compleat the exterior of my house . So I’m basically just ready for constant nice weather .

  13. Snowdrops still blooming in the backyard. Nothing else as of yet.

    Vicki…there is clearly a difference in vegetation growth between coastline and inland. 🙂

    1. No. We have another period to watch around mid March. Also, the Euro being more OTS is still no guarantee that is the final outcome, though I am leaning in that direction at the moment.

      NAO is going negative and MJO is going from phase 7-8 now to 1-2 through mid March. That’s a snow pattern.

      2. But I do believe, pending MJO and AO/NAO, that right around Equinox we shift to a warmer pattern for quite a while.

  15. Interesting snow chart from Jay’s Peak, where they got around 8 inches of snow overnight and this morning. Snowfall is from a rather potent low – must have picked up moisture from the unfrozen lakes – traversing the U.S./Canadian border as I write this post. It’s been a better year at Jay’s Peak there than at most New England ski resorts. In fact, there isn’t a resort that comes close in terms of total snowfall this year.

    http://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/the-mountain/snowfall-charts/

    1. Yes, pretty mild! And interesting timing because I was just about to type this:
      Meanwhile on the other side of the front, Burlington VT at 3PM is 28 with a NW wind at 10 MPH, higher gusts, and a wind chill of 19.

      1. Indeed, a tale of two sides of the front. Very cold temperatures expected this week north of the front. Some buckling of the jet will bring cooler temperatures to SNE but it looks like the cold will mostly be confined to central and northern New England. Am I seeing this correctly?

  18. Have to step aside from the weather as I’m just stunned and sick at what I’m hearing in American politics today. Revolted. Hadn’t followed the news much in the last 36 hours. But now I’m now reading about Trump’s comments in regard to David Duke and Benito Mussolini.

    Trump’s refusal earlier this weekend to disavow Duke’s endorsement, claiming repeatedly that he didn’t know David Duke or his policies should send shock waves around this county. Our country is a patchwork quilt. We’ve always been a patchwork quilt. Difference races, religions, cultures, you name it. David Duke represents intolerant evil and bigotry of the first order. Plain and simple. Trump knows this, but initially refused to disavow Duke’s endorsement.

    Trump spoke of “opening up the libel laws … allowing governments to sue the press [Trump specifically called out the NY Times] for articles [he deems] disgraceful.” The Wall Street Journal compared Trump to authoritarian leaders such as Erdogan of Turkey, and Orban of Hungary who have clamped down on media unfriendly to them.

    On top of all this, Trump re-tweeted quotes from Mussolini today, saying he “likes these quotes” and finds them “interesting.” “What difference does it make that they’re from Mussolini,” Trump said. Wow. What bloody ignorance. Fascism is an evil doctrine, as awful and destructive as communism. It makes a huge difference where quotes are coming from.

    And in Massachusetts this man – this “low-life” to use the words Trump used to describe Rubio – is leading in the polls. I’m too angry for words.

        1. Those 3 are even worse than that. The Grand ole party should be ashamed of themselves to even allow these
          3 morons to run! At least put up a reasonable candidate.
          C’mon.

          You all know which way I lean, but Geez how about a candidate that doesn’t embarrass the Nation.

          As much as I despise Mitt Romney, at least he was
          a candidate, the 48% not withstanding.

          1. If he had not been so influenced by the tea party, Mitt may well have gotten my vote. I voted for him here.

      2. I am more middle road …I may not agree with the views of some of them, but I think several truly do care about this country.

    2. There was an interesting article in the NYT a friend shared on FB.

      It is all worrisome but the most worrisome of all was the comment …

      “…….I don’t see a man who will carefully weigh all the facts and consequences of an action that could affect everyone on the planet”. The fact that he literally will make decisions that affect not only us but the entire world, in my opinion, should terrify us.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/opinion/a-unified-theory-of-trump.html?_r=0

      1. Indeed. Can you imagine any of those 3 bozos with their
        hand on the nuclear button? They could literally end the World, or at least as we know it and cause a nuclear Winter!!!!

        1. No one is worried Obama has had this same power? You know the anti-military guy withz zero real life experience? He has cost us the Middle East (Russia is in there now), gabe Iran nuclear technology they will use against us at some point , and sold military tech to China. If anyone put us on the path to a nuclear war just look at the current White House resident.

    3. My brain still refuses to compute the fact that he is not only actually a viable candidate but is actually leading in the polls.

      I do truly hope that the next President – God willing not a former reality TV star – and the House and Senate learn the take away from this – namely disenfranchising the majority of the country from any true opportunity or really any voice in how things – go will not end well ever.

      To be blunt – I work with and arguably am one of the fortunate 1 or 2 percent – and the older I get and the more I see of how “the world really works” at this point in time in this country – the more fearful I am that greed and corruption will prove to be the Visigoths in the Sac of our Rome – i.e. US. And those corrupt individuals that are leading us to the brink of destruction are not evil but somehow cannot understand that every time they trade favors, or get a sweet deal, or a little more whatever, from their juiced in contacts – they are also pulling one more block from jenga tower that is our country’s political stability.

      Apologies – I will now drag myself down from the soapbox – hopefully given my handle my views and Lennon/Harrison pessimism/optimism will not come as a big surprise!

      And I know this is a weather blog – just couldn’t resist….

      1. Agree …..mac read the fall of Rome. I didn’t have the heart but should. He said the similarities were terrifying

    1. They liked the eight before even less.

      The problem is we don’t have a good choice. No one wants the job. Who would

  21. Sooooooooooooo. It is 51 degrees here. It was a glorious sunset. TK is just feeling better. I have no doubt at all that everyone on this blog cares deeply for this country …regardless of his or her political views. No one is all wrong. No one is all right

    May I politely suggest that we head on back to our real passion. I enjoyed the brief interlude but don’t want to be the cause for any extra work for TK.

    Just my opinion again….which we all know I am more than likely to share….welcome or not 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Agreed! Thanks for tolerating my rant – now what a beautiful day!

      As our flowers are peeking out I’m happy with the 2/3 OTS – but seems like this winter it might end up being unexpected door #4!

      1. I just listened to a song called Door Number 2 by Walter Becker. Anybody care to answer the trivia question … which famous duo is Walter Becker part of that forms a band. Who is the other member and what do they call themselves? 🙂

                1. Oh and I’m still singing John Denver songs from your test on FB this am so my mind was filled with those. Although I also like Steely Dan

    2. I don’t like either side.
      Democrats? BLAH.
      Republicans? BLAH.
      I just don’t like political parties.
      I like real candidates.
      There will never be a perfect one.
      I just want some real ones.
      I’ve seen none recently. I see none now.
      Oh well!

      Looks like BILL THE CAT & OPUS again!
      Or maybe Linus & Lucy…
      Laurel & Hardy?
      Bonnie & Clyde?
      Larry, Moe, & Curly…………..

  24. I feel like every time I vote lately I am voting for the lesser of two evils. I don’t like the candidates for either side so I am going to vote for who ever the independent is or write in a candidate. A couple people I work with wished Michael Bloomberg the former mayor of NYC would enter the race as an independent since he is better than any of the candidates running for President. I happen to agree with that.

  25. To me no matter what side of the aisle they sit on there all corrupt. Its just a matter who gets caught.

      1. We have been here before….as early as our second president. People need to stop polarizing. We have the power.

        Oops…I was going back to weather. 43 and not sunny here 😆

    2. You can’t come back from what will be 20 trillion in debt…most of which was over the last 8 years. All China has to do is call their loans and we go away quickly. Retrac is correct. The founding fathers knew this…Jefferson believed any generation had no obligation to live by the constraints and rules of the previous generation.

  29. I agree with the assesment of voting for the least of evils. In my mind Obama was not the best president, but much better than what the others would have given us especially with such a terrible senate and house. He has gotten a lot of things done, He has done a lot of good, thanks to Obama Oil and gas is not so god darn bloody expensive (hint not big oil buying him out) He has protected the most wilderness/environment of any president and acknowledges climate change. The USA can not go Backwards, Go For ward.

    I would vote for Bloomberg without blinking an Eye, He is well respected, not bought out and huge environmentally. He would help get the freaking government to work properly. I feel with any of these candidates that are currently running the house and senate to work. There is also talks that if Bloomberg did run, He would ask Biden or Warren to be Vise. What a COMBO that would be. 😀 to bad it is unlikely, but just no nut jobs to make the USA international image go down the crapper. yes I do take into account the environmental views greatly into consideration and if you start threatening to build on national parks and get rid of the EPA , cut funding for Nasa even more than it all ready has and other major science industries including green Tech, You will not get my vote.

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