Thursday Forecast

298 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)…
The volatility of March will be apparent during this 5-day period, starting with a mild St. Patrick’s Day which includes the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail this afternoon as we get relatively warm at the surface and have cold air aloft, which is an unstable set up. A strong cold front passes on Friday with a few rain and eventually snow showers, gusty wind, but most importantly bringing a delivery of cold air that will last through the weekend. After fair weather Saturday, a storm system that has traveled cross country will make a run up the East Coast late Sunday into that cold air, departing early Monday, but in the process of its passage may leave a significant snowfall over at least part of, if not most of the region. With the event toward the end of this period, details are still not possible to discern, but fine-tuning will be in progress throughout so you have as accurate a lead-up and final call as possible. In the mean time just be aware of the strong possibility of a significant winter storm as spring officially gets underway.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and areas of fog to start, then variably cloudy including partial sunshine, leading to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms after 2PM, some of which may include small hail. Highs range from near 50 South Coast to the lower 60s interior MA/NH. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Also, briefly strong wind gusts are possible near any showers and thunderstorms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A lingering rain shower possible early. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly late morning through mid afternoon, may end as snow showers in some areas. Temperatures steady in the 40s in the morning falling to the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Clouding up. Snow possible by late day and night, possible mix coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Snow/mix ending, breaking clouds, gusty wind. Temperatures in the 30s but may fall to the 20s late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)…
Windy/cold/dry March 22. Breezy and milder with fair weather March 23. Unsettled periods of weather March 24-26 with variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)…
Progressive pattern of changing air masses and periods of unsettled weather during the final days of March.

298 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK !

    If this all truly behaves like New England, then we’ll get about 15 inches Sunday night into Monday morning and then within 2 weeks, which would be April 4th, it will hit 90F. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. Some re-posts coming from me. Oh and thank you Tk for the update.

    JP Dave says:
    March 17, 2016 at 6:59 AM
    0Z Euro

    Surface maps

    http://imgur.com/opM4htd

    http://imgur.com/RXOIFZZ

    Snow map

    http://imgur.com/OoCZMVk

    850 mb

    http://imgur.com/b0cXXaL

    925mb

    http://imgur.com/qdVfxYK

    surface temperatures, 12Z Monday

    http://imgur.com/ImLRn6H

    So according to this run, it may “mix” in Boston, but not from warmth above, but
    rather from boundary layer temps. Let’s see what the 12Z runs show.
    Reply

  5. re-post

    JP Dave says:
    March 17, 2016 at 7:23 AM
    6Z GFS snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=120

    0Z CMC snowmap

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031700/gem_asnow_neus_21.png

    6Z cmc precip map

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016031700/I_nw_EST_2016031700_104.png

    CMC is really backing off.

    We have extreme model divergence going on here.

    Euro and Ukmet, Strong and close to the coast.
    GFS and CMC weaker, off shore more
    FIM in the middle

  6. As expected, there is no clear “model trend”. They’re just reacting to sets of initial conditions their own way (based on programming biases). There have been no drastic changes in the last couple runs and I’m still not expecting too many changes in the general idea of the evolution of the upcoming event.

  8. Tom, you’re right, that would be fitting. But, I don’t see any warmth in our near and medium term future. Mostly 40s and 50s right into early to mid April, often 30s at night, with lots of clouds, drizzle, damp, and several more chances at at least a mix around here with snow up north.

  9. Thanks, TK…
    Top O’ The Mornin’ to Ya!

    Happy St. Patrick’s Day to everyone!

    Since we changed the clocks ahead on Sunday, most of the hours have been cloudy!!!

    Change the clocks back to bring back the nice weather! Ha, Ha!

  16. the canadian does not seem right to me, gives us a small tiny piece of a storm that goes well out to sea

        1. Well then, that is a strong statement and one I will count on as I completely trust the source. And I have found a wonderful individual who is willing to add me to his list of residences to plow on Monday. Thank you, TK, for your input and, as always, calm and reliable advice. I can now relax and sit back and enjoy the storm!

  17. the canadian has no real support from the ensembles for being that far east. (GEPS)
    The gfs has better support but over all the ensembles are further west.(GEFS)
    The EURO has support from its ensembles.(eps)
    The EURO also has support from the GFS ensembles as well as the the Canadian ensembles

  18. At 3-4 days out, we are in the Euro and UKMET’s sweet spot. Highest verification scores with those models while the GFS and Canadian lag behind. Unless those models cave, I would favor the stronger/closer to the coast/higher impact solution.

    Tom, with respect to your earlier comment about the performance of the recently upgraded Euro, it had actually been running for several months as the “Euro parallel” prior to going live. People with weatherbell had access to it. The early verification scores on it have been very good and better than the old Euro.

  20. Hi everyone! Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

    We’re heading down to Newport, RI, with a plan to drive up to Boston very early Monday morning in order to make it in to work by 9. What should we anticipate for driving conditions? Will RI get rain? Would driving back Sunday night be a better idea?

    I’m really looking forward to consistent spring-like conditions… and of course summer!

    1. The only thing consistent about Spring in New England is the variability. 🙂

      Expect poor driving conditions with snow, possibly mix further south.

  21. I just have a feeling this event will be in the minor category from boston right down through the south shore. Just a hunch that’s all. I also think if snow is falling on sunday that’s it till late in the year .

    1. Some of the reliable guidance has additional frozen precip threats after this one. Pattern more favorable for 2 to 3 weeks.

  26. 12Z NAM has the storm in a dangerous position as it intensifies.
    Will it turn North or keep heading out? That is the big question.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016031712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    snowfall as of 8PM Sunday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Clearly the NAM is a little fast, which most likely means
    not as much phasing and a more off shore track.

    1. Not so sure. Take a look at 500mb, 300mb and 200mb charts. I think it want to
      pass South and East of benchmark, UNLESS those flows dig fast and it
      turns more to the North.

      1. It’s practically at the benchmark already at hour 84. It would basically have to shoot due east from there. But alas, we are splitting hairs at this point!

  28. Thank you tk 🙂

    Last day of lawn visits and mosquito and tick treatments for me until I return early Wednesday. We leave at 5am for antiqua in the morning. We should reach our 400th visit today. Like I said waaaaay ahead of last year by 400. We had just begun 1st visits in Newport. Beautiful day today!!! Enjoy!!!

  33. Thank the good we have had no winter, we would have been screwed if we had a bad winter and then this possible snow event Sunday. Very hAppy with this year. Next week after Tue? if it snows. we go where it doesn’t snow. Possibly southern ri all depends

  34. Hi everyone, I’m sitting in a hotel in sunny and 70 degree Tempe, AZ having a hard time believing that NOW possible snow is in the forecast for Boston! My daughter and I share a spring break schedule and Monday through Wednesday we hiked to the bottom of the Grand Canyon and out. Incredible. Beautiful weather and met some neat folks on the trip. Although I love snow I’m not sure how I feel after navigating in shorts for a week! Oh well, to quote BB, it is what it is. Will enjoy whatever comes. We arrive back midday on Friday so it sounds like that travel won’t be affected… WHW…what a great resource. Thanks everyone.

    1. No enjoy!! It’s going to be awesome for us to be in Antigua in 85 degrees while occasionally checking and seeing it snowing here. It will be bringing big smiles for us. Have a safe trip

  35. From SPC for this afternoon
    PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON…
    COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
    SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY WITH SURFACE HEATING…DESPITE RESIDUAL
    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SOMEWHAT
    HIGH-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
    GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON…BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
    STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE.

    1. Here it is:

      SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
      1003 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

      CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-RIZ001>007-172015-
      HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
      EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
      WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
      WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
      SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
      SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
      WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
      SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
      NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
      EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
      INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
      VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…
      ORANGE…BARRE…FITCHBURG…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…
      GLOUCESTER…CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…
      SPRINGFIELD…MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…
      CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…TAUNTON…BROCKTON…PLYMOUTH…
      FALL RIVER…NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…AYER…FOSTER…
      SMITHFIELD…PROVIDENCE…WEST GREENWICH…WARWICK…BRISTOL…
      NARRAGANSETT…WESTERLY…NEWPORT
      1003 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

      …SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN HAIL AND
      LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING…

      SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
      TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…SOME OF WHICH COULD
      PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH.
      THERE IS A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO UP
      TO 60 MPH. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM
      THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

      THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
      SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING…HAIL…AND
      BRIEFLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. BE READY TO SHELTER INDOORS IF
      NECESSARY.

      $$
      FIELD

  40. Given all the damage that was done to trees and property during that storm early in Feb with the heavy wet snow, this storm doesn’t thrill me at all. The snow for this one could be wetter, heavier, and more than that storm. To make matters worse, I never bothered to get my snowblower fixed when it broke down during that same storm…

    1. I hear that Ace. Our power and Comcast cable were both knocked off our house during that February storm. I can do without those issues for sure.

    1. Yes, too soon to draw parallels with a massive storm like the one we had on 3/31 and 4/1/97. I don’t see the same intensity setting up even if the Euro were to verify. But, don’t listen to me, listen to the experts.

      1. I’m with you on this, Charlie. There will be snow but I don’t expect anything over a foot anywhere in SNE. We shall see.

  43. Possible summerlike weather in some areas today and the potential for wintry weather in a few days! Wow! Kind of looking forward to some snow on Mon. – except for the impact it could have on the morning commute. Any snow will probably disappear fast with the March sun, even if temps. remain on the cool side.

    And Happy St. Patrick’s Day all!

  44. If I’m reading GFS correctly it wants to blow this system up into a more potent system after it has crossed the benchmark. The Maritimes may get absolutely hammered by 1 to 2 feet of heavy, wet snow.

    By the way, parts of far northern Maine and New Brunswick have been getting snow almost every day for the past few weeks. I’m curious to know what their snowpack is like.

  45. Amy, pay close attention to forecasts. If at all possible, postpone your Sunday/Monday trip. I say this because I don’t think RI will get spared and just have rain. The islands (eg, Block), yes, but anywhere from Providence to Westerly may have significant snow/mix and it could get hazardous on the roads. Keep in mind that we’re going to see temps dip into the 20s at night starting on Friday, and mostly 30s in the weekend, which means surfaces will be `prepped’ for snow to accumulate in spite of the time of year.

  46. My prediction is when all said And done, it will be a very wet snow, almost sleety in areas south and east of Boston and immediate coast. Boston totals will be in the 4-6 inch range, with less to the south. Something will go haywire for snow lovers, or maybe I’m wrong. I have a funny hunch within 36-48hrs change will happen. We shall see. It should be mostly gone hopefully by the time I get back 🙂

    1. I don’t do numbers this soon as you know but my early instinct is that the majority will have 1 digit versus 2.

        1. I’m fine with whatever also….I would not mind if it is on the lower amounts. Too messy to move but it can be done so ….Que Sera, Srea 😉

  47. GGEM much further west with some snow but heaviest snowfall in western half of the state. moderate snowfall.

  49. Thanks, Matt, for the snow depth data. Far northern Maine has a little less than I thought, but Quebec City region has a ton of snow.

  50. Lightning strikes and echos now coming into view around Albany.

    Here we go! Could be a fun and busy afternoon!

  52. Whether it’s rain or snow, does anyone have an estimated start time for Sunday such as afternoon or evening??? thanks.

  53. Nasty, dark cloud just west southwest of Marshfield. Noticeable wall of precip falling from the right side of the cloud.

    1. The compactness of the 850 mb temp gradient, the cold -10C 850 temps not too far of the sfc low. The NE 850 mb jet.

      I’m assuming that’s going to show BIG snowfall !!

    1. If that exact projection occurs, that will be a significant 6 hour dump of snow.

      Rain/snow line maybe up to Marshfield than collapsing SE as the low bombs

  56. Meteorologist Joe Joyce tweet on 12z EURO run
    All important 12Z Euro still shows major winter Nor’easter for Sunday Night-Monday. It’s on

  57. Sub 980 mb low just southeast of Chatham at 8AM Monday on the 12z Euro. So about the same strength and just a bit further east than the 0Z run.

  60. major 977mb storm tracking south of chatam and over nantucket= good snow for at least my area here in northeast mass. that is a track I like because it sends accumulating snow well inland as well as my area. rain cape and islands possibly

      1. I don’t think it rains. Perhaps some mixed rain and snow due
        to boundary layer temps. 850 mb temps are ice cold
        throughout event. Highest it gets is -4 mostly -8 to -12 C.

        Same with 925MB temps

        According to the Euro it stays 32 or BELOW the entire event
        in Boston.

        So, it looks like ratio.

  63. Necn is throwing around amounts of 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow, saying snow ratios of 5-6 to 1 inch of rain. Then said it should be back to close to 60 wed thu fri. Thank god.

  65. Just when you think Spring has Sprung around here, mother nature throws a little surprise our way! As much as I love snow, I wish this was happening in December, but I’ll enjoy it for what it is. Charlie and the like probably won’t mind much either because its not destined to stick around very long.

    1. Exactly I’ll miss the entire thing, and when I get back it will be melting so fast, anything under 8 inches will go poof. Not worried, looks toasty the midweek to end of next week so all good here 🙂

  66. Mark been a while since I have been in the jackpot area with a lot of these snow events we have had past couple years. Last time my area got nailed was the blizzard of 2013 when we had 30 inches of snow. Since then when there has been big snow events the higher totals east of me.

    2. It is your every day Nor’easter so I wouldn’t expect it to get national coverage. It certainly won’t be a crippling storm.

      1. Really? 3-6 inches causes national coverage in NYC in many cases. Personally I think it’s a very localized storm and effecting a relatively small population comparatively speaking.

        1. 3-6 inches is big news here sue. It will cancel school and the governor would come on urging motorist to stay home

          1. Charlie, I have never heard the governor announce that people should stay home with 3-6 inches.

      2. Not sure if I agree with that, and I’m usually cautious in my predictions of snowfall. This is not an ordinary nor’easter, in my humble opinion if I am reading the Euro model correctly. There’s going to be a lot of wind and precipitation. This could very easily be crippling due to the heaviness of the snow and mix. Over 6-12 inches of cement can do a lot of damage, even if it melts fairly quickly post-storm. My take:

        – Little snow over much of the Cape and Islands – mostly windswept, cold rain
        – Some heavy front-end snow (< 6 inches) from the Canal through the South Shore, over to Providence, plus some sleet and windswept cold rain, with back-end snow towards the end of the storm

        – Mostly snow (12 inches)

        1. My last bullet got cut off. Meant to say mostly snow (12 inches) points north of Boston and west of metro west.

  71. been away since 11:30 AM.
    Was down in Weymouth for a luncheon with my wife. Good shower down there
    around 2PM.

    Snuck a peek at GFS and CMC while there and just looked at the Euro.
    This thing is looking for real now. That’s 3 runs in succession by the Euro.
    GFS tics a bit more snow each run.

    Get the snow shovels out, it’s coming.

    All we need is a measly 5 inches or so to surpass 30 inches on the season for
    Boston. That’s an accomplishment in a strong El Nino Winter.

    Now for the rest of today. Things are popping all over.

  72. Thank you Mark for posting the Euro charts. I was ready to do so, then I saw that you had posted them. 😀

  73. GFS..snowfall
    4-8 inches across eastern mass, RI and CT up along the NH coast and coastal Maine to Northeast Maine where 8+ happens.
    Canadian snowfall.
    0-4 inches, cape
    4-8 along and east and south of i95
    8-16+ across areas west and north of i95. with highest amounts in southern and central VT to central NH up through Maine.
    EURO
    0-1 inch on the cape and Islands
    1-3 along the canal of cape cod,
    3-6 coastal plymouth county and south facing shore of Mass and RI
    6-12 interior southeast mass, east coast Northern RI and southeast CT. northeast locations of maine and coast. Most of vt.
    12+ western , central CT , northwest portion of RI . Western , central Mass, Northeast Mass. All of NH, All of interior Maine., Southern and far eastern Vt

  74. Ace, regarding your earlier question on the Euro, mix line is near or just east/south of Boston at the height of the storm so totals from Boston south a bit less due to lower ratios and perhaps some mixing.

  75. Charlie, I think you are correct about it being odd that there is no national coverage. NYC is definitely in the crosshairs, even if it’s 6 inches of snow. That is worthy of a story on March 21st of any year. In New England, we’ve had our share of March and April storms, but still it’s not every year that we get a snowstorm on or near the equinox, so it’s notable.

    I think you’re a bit mistaken about the warm-up post-storm. You’re right, it’ll get to the 40s and possibly 50s by Wednesday and melt away most if not all the snow, but the remainder of the month right into April look colder than normal and not especially appealing from anyone’s point of view. We (SNE) could very easily get some more accumulating snow – certainly the interior – from events in the forecast for late March and early April.

    1. It is still three days away and most times we are criticizing the media’s hype of storms. Maybe they finally took the conservative approach.

      1. I would love to think that sue as it would be smart. But it’s the news. Weather and the word snow brings more eye balls than anything. No ones gonna pay for them being wrong.

  76. Sue, you are 100% that the media tends to overhype. I’m all for under-hyping, or, as TK puts it, “your no hype southeastern NE weather blog.” But, I would not underestimate a storm with this potential. It’s not going to be catastrophic, but it’s also not an ordinary nor’easter (at least as it stands right now).

    1. Could very well be, but based on the relative consistency of the models (all show a storm and a hit to one degree or another) I don’t think bust is in the cards. Could see the coast just get cold rain and mix, but I think there will be plenty of snow in parts of New England after this is said and done.

      1. You, sir, are not welcome in Camp Bust. Consider your application for admittance in our elite camp denied 🙂

        2. Well, I guess I’ll have to join Camp Hype. They’re just a few miles down the road. They like their rafts overinflated, their vegetables overcooked, and their steak overdone.

    1. Thanks for sharing.

      Remember the hail from last summer’s storm. That was damaging stuff, golf-ball sized or bigger. Unbelievable.

    2. If the hail is not large enough and the wind not strong enough, there will be no warning.

      1. But the article on 7 says there is a warning. That’s what I meant when I said that I don’t see it but they have it marked in the article.

        1. It now says it expired. However, when I read it, it said it was in effect. Could be they just had not updated their article.

  80. The atmosphere does NOT support large hail today. It supports small hail and not much lightning. These will be more likely glorified showers with embedded hail. More picturesque than anything else.

  81. Tk isn’t the hail potential today just bc the upper atmosphere is cold as supposed to down south where the raindrop is being sucked back to the top of the cloud above the freezing layer? Thank u

    1. These raindrops are being carried upward too, just like down south. It’s just much colder a lot lower and the cloud tops are lower so they don’t have to travel that far to freeze.

    1. Wouldn’t be the first storm that showed a lot of snow several days out and then didn’t happen…has been the trend all winter.

      1. This has nothing to do with what the trend has been this Winter. It’s a different pattern entirely.

      1. Never ever EVER declare Winter over that early. Cardinal rule in meteorology. 😀

  84. I don’t think there’s much national coverage to this upcoming storm because it’s really New England’s snowstorm.

    It’s not a snowstorm that hits a swath of the U.S. It’s really a case of the cold and storm coming together for our area.

  86. Tweet from meteorologist Fred Campagna at WTNH here in CT
    New England snow lovers: EPS mean and many members closer to the coast. That means Sun-Mon snow threat pushed inland.

    1. That’s good for us here in coastal plain if you want less snow. I smell a coastal hugger

      1. I don’t know if it’s that simple this go around.

        The dynamics and explosive deepening of the sfc low are going to have the rain/snow line closer to the low track than usual AND it will quickly collapse that rain/snow line south and east as soon as the sfc low passes by.

        1. I can understand your points. But with ovean very warm ranging from 42-46 degrees I think this plays a factor especially within 20-30 miles of the ovean and south and east of Boston and providence

          1. Perhaps Charlie. But with explosively developing surface lows, sometimes the surface air will rush towards the area of low pressure. This is called the ageostrophic wind and if that happens, then the NE wind will go straight Northerly and that will really end the oceans influence.

  90. Here in Woburn I got a few very nice photos. A cell did develop and pass south of me (the one JP Dave saw) and the main batch passed to my north but did produce some big rain drops and a gust of wind to about 30 MPH here (45 MPH in north Woburn). Brief rainbow visible in north Woburn but not here.

    The warned cells coming out of metro Worcester are heading my way now…

  91. What a stretch if the medium range plays out …..

    I was curious what the EURO offered for days 7-10.

    At day 9, it has a vigorous 500 mb low causing a surface low to pull all kinds of warm and humid air into the Ohio and Mississippi valleys. A strong 850mb jet with decent backing of the winds with height.

    So, five or so days after a potential large noreaster, the next thing to watch might be quite a severe weather event in the Ohio Valley towards Easter weekend.

  95. Ones headed here look to be diminishing somewhat. One looks to have gained strength just east of us and is over Wellesley now

      1. Feel it in ya bones, eh Charlie.
        Hey anything could happen. In this case, I trust the Euro.
        We shall see how much if any the Euro changes tonight. 😀

        84 hours is not the NAM’s wheelhouse.

  101. Good day for CT schools in NCAA tournament both Yale and UCONN winning today.
    I did not have Yale beating Baylor in my bracket. I did however have UCONN beating Colorado.

  102. Charlie Kansas will be tough on Saturday for UConn. Will see if this is going to be another one of those UConn runs in the tournament. Yale great story first time in tournament since 1962 upset 5 seed Baylor move on to play Duke.

  104. Spring will be back with a punch come end of next week through weekend with 60s+. It will be fun to watch any left over snow vanish completely!

  105. We had one of those glorified showers with embedded small hail move through CT. No thunder or lightning. Big story was the wind and sudden temp drop. Was garbage day here and had to dodge several tipper barrels that had blown over and were strewn all over the road!

    18z NAM not as strong as the Euro/UKMET so it’s unable to wrap the cold air in as tight, hence the rain line further inland and less dynamic cooling. I would take it with a grain of salt at 84 hours out – we are in the Euro’s wheelhouse at 3 days out.

  107. 18z GFS is weaker and SE of the benchmark. Stays all snow for pretty much everyone but lesser amounts.

    The model divergence continues.

    2. The gfs has been going between 3 different scenerios. but the ensembles been consistentlybeen with the EURO we shall see.

      1. One of my favorite places to be on the cape is Skaket and Nuset. ever since I was 2 years old

        1. easy location to learn new tricks on my skimboard and for shore break skimboarding as well

  110. We might know the answer to this storm on Saturday AM, but even that could be just a “maybe.”

  111. So far according to Harvey the heaviest snows will be 495 N&W with moderate amounts for Boston and snow/rain for the Cape.

    As for Barry, mostly snow N&W with rain to mostly snow for Boston and mostly rain for the Cape.

  114. I love Bernie’s videos. Break everything down so even a non weather person has an understanding of what is going on.

  115. I don’t know maybe it’s just me, but I feel like we might be looking at a progressive system and it doesn’t get cranking until it’s passed us. Just a gut feeling I have.

    1. I got a feeling the same. But anything over 6 or 8 is a hit. I’m concerned even with the cold temps just prior that the pavement is so warm from many many 60 and 70 degree temps snow accumulation will be so different from shady areas

      1. It will be very cold starting tomorrow night right up through the arrival of the storm. Warm ground temps are not going to be a huge issue, especially with a lot of this falling overnight.

  120. I saw that, GFS has a big April Fools nor’easter which results in a good chunk of the snow on that run. We are not done with snow chances after the Sun/Mon storm.

  121. Interesting little stat from this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Snowstorms after St. Patricks Day aren’t unheard of but they are unusual. There have been 15 (>6″) storms in Hartford. Most recent in 1997.

  123. We will be working on thu while it’s around 60. I guarantee. This is not to antagonize. I just know we will be fertilizing somewhere in New England 🙂

    1. Somewhere, yes. And all the precipitation we’re having, including any snow we may get, will help lawns this year. Surely, we need the precipitation, especially if we’re in for a long, hot summer. I’ll be Argus-eyed regarding whether we do indeed get a hot summer.

      1. This snow is very good for the lawns. Especially the ground unfrozen. And melting within a couple days. # very good

  124. I do not see warmth in our near or medium term future. I’ve seen several posts suggesting that warmth will return next week. Surely, it will `warm up’ and melt the snow quickly. But, I just don’t real warmth other than a couple of days in the 50-55 range. And this is not warm in my book. The projected `warm-up’ is brief with cold/cool interludes a theme as we move towards and into April. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that parts of the interior (Berkshires, for instance; Worcester Hills, too) will get more snow the coming 3 weeks than they have all winter until now. I think the coast will mostly see cold rain from the projected systems, except the Monday storm which will bring some snow to the coast followed by mix.

    I think Dr. Cohen deserves a kudo or two. Not that he was accurate with precision, but he definitely went against the grain and indicated that the latter part of March into April would turn colder and possibly snowy for some. Remember Brett Anderson (who I do respect) and others who declared winter dead at the end of February based on long-range Euro weeklies that have turned out to be erroneous.

          1. Actually Barry has said it a couple of times this is not cold that’s hanging out and Barry even had warmer numbers for the weekend compared to what I’ve been hearing .

          2. Hey, it’s worked most of the winter. Can’t be all that bad. Probably better than the Cosmo model.

  125. This Saturday around 60? Where’d that come from. The people with degrees at NWS show 37 in ORH. So, 23 degrees more where? I don’t get it.

    2. If hits 60F in Boston this Saturday I’m a leprechaun. It’ll be 40 at best. No, I think the discussion was about next week’s temps from Wednesday through Friday. Could reach 60F in some locales on Thursday, but I’m guessing it’ll stay in the 50s.

  126. Charlie, I think I’ve finally figured out where u get those temps from, the weather channel app, right?

    1. It shows those very temps for the time period. But u do realize that is just automatically generated based off the GFS and changes with each run, sometimes radically. Never go by those.

  128. I think I figured that out…
    If y’all were discussing next week’s temps, there will be some pretty mild air around the second half of next week. It’s not lasting warmth but a couple days of it before we tip the scale again. A lot of back and forth upcoming, with an overall trend toward cooler (relative to normal) than we saw for much of late February and early March.

    1. Thank u!! I’ve looked at different models and that’s what I come up with. A milder later next week. Close to 60

    2. That’s whst Barry said today . He said warmth midweek on but didn’t hear him say back to cold could have missed it. He also had rain to snow for boston for this storm.

      1. He didn’t go far enough to talk about cold beyond that. It will turn colder again beyond next week.

  131. 00z Nam has came in stronger, with higher amounts, heaviest outside of 495 with 8+. with 4-8 in eastern areas. nothing outer cape and islands

    1. With the low passing this close, i am worried about a dry slot, maybe that’s why accumulations are down in eastern mass. I don’t think it will mix north of boston. Even tho its possible that SE mass can mix but i wonder why the accumulations are lower in east, northeast mass, maybe lower snow ratios?

      1. Not so much a dry slot, just better dynamics more inland, plus wetter lower ratio snow near the coast.

        I don’t think it comes this close, but rather a tad more off shore, but not where the GFS places it. We shall see.

  135. My first impression of the 00z EURO is that it jogged east some and scaled back on the intensity of the low. …… I’ll guess this actually brings higher snow potential into SE Mass.

  137. Tom, you are right – the 0z Euro is weaker and further southeast. A definite step towards the GFS. Still delivers 6″+ for eastern CT, most of eastern MA and RI with a 9″+ bullseye in SE MA south of Boston. Lesser on the Cape.

    1. That’s a nice map but the trend of the euro toward the GFS and now the NAM is concerning.

      …….12z

      1. I agree. I saw that and fell off my chair in amazement!

        Fickled environment OR should I say inadequacies in the model
        algorithms to deal with the complexities of the atmosphere.

        The only thing that bothers me is that Charlie would be correct.
        It doesn’t bother me if you were correct. 😀

        We shall see.

  142. From NWS

    THE SPREAD IN
    THE ENSEMBLES AND SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE
    INTERACTION TELL US ITS TOO EARLY TO LOCK IN A SPECIFIC SCENARIO.

    NWS initial snow map, issued 4:49 AM (with 0Z guidance)

    http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

    Min

    http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/MinSnowWeb.png

    MAX

    http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

    When will they update? Soon after digesting 6Z OR later after digesting 12Z?

  143. My 2 cents is that the biggest thing to be determined still is this lobe of a trof that extends southward from Hudson Bay.

    It’s orientation, depth and exact location, I believe, is the key to the amount of phasing and therefore track of this coastal low.

  144. Not good waking up to seeing these shifts to east. This would be our theme like so many times this winter opportunities that go by the waist side.

    1. BUT it is supposed to be the best set up all Winter.
      I guess it is a STATEMENT about this Winter.

      I suppose there is still some wiggle room. We shall see.

  146. The concern for me has always been the miss outside. I knew some of the ECMWF and CMC runs were way overdoing the strength of the low, and that a stronger low would lead to a more west track. It’s probably not going to turn out that way. It’s a pretty weak storm. Graze or complete miss most likely.

  148. Step 1: Don’t ride the model roller coaster.
    Step 2: Apply meteorology.
    Step 3: Don’t ride the model roller coaster.
    Step 4: Repeat steps 1 through 3.

    Updating…

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