Friday Forecast

258 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)…
The calendar flips from winter to spring Sunday but the next 5 days will show winter’s stubbornness to depart, which is ironic given we’ve been in a mild pattern much of the time since late February, so it’s more like a brief return to winter, or a “winterlude” if you will allow the expression. It all starts with a cold front passing through the region today. It’s still relatively mild to start the day but a good push of cold air is coming, and the front that introduces it will set off some rain showers mainly midday and afternoon from north to south. There may be a brief snow shower in a few locations behind the front but most areas will dry out by evening and in will flow the cold, which will get established as high pressure builds north of the region on Saturday. By Sunday, low pressure coming out of the southeastern US will make a run up the East Coast, and as always, the evolution and track of the low will determine the details for this area. I’m not ready for rain/snow lines and snow accumulation numbers as of this post, but the general idea will be for the greatest chance of rain/mix will be coastal areas and especially Cape Cod, the greatest risk of snow without mixing will be over interior MA and southern NH, and the time frame for this will be between later Sunday afternoon and sometime Monday morning. The fine tuning will begin in the comments section below and with an updated post this evening if necessary and certainly by tomorrow morning’s post. Regardless of storm details, it its wake we will see a reinforcing shot of cold air into Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy morning. Lots of clouds this afternoon with scattered rain showers and only a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Decreasing clouds and increasing sun later in the day. Highs in the 50s but start to fall fairly quickly by evening. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by late day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY: Clouding over. Snow developing south to north afternoon, may be mixed with rain over Cape Cod and immediate coast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Snow/mix ending after potential significant snow accumulation. Temperatures in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)…
Risk of light rain/mix March 23, not as cold. Fair and warmer March 24-25. Unsettled weather and a cooling trend March 26-27.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)…
Up and down temperatures with passing systems bringing a few precipitation threats.

258 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. I just hope that no rain or mix is dragged into Boston. It is going to be heavy enough to move around with all snow. Keeping my fingers crossed that a due N wind eventually dominates.

    1. Sure not looking that way at the moment. I sure hope the 12Z runs get a better handle on this and that it is not mostly OTS. Probably will be OTS.
      If so, we’ll get on with SPRING! 😀

  6. Based on TK’s extended outlook above that perhaps more snow threats lurking for the end of the month.

  7. Thank you tk 🙂

    And the changes continue. I still have my hunch this will under perform to what models have been alluding too. They might be catching on. Time will tell. Good day:)

    1. Same here. I know the set up is conducive, but I’m going with the trend is your friend approach.

  8. Good morning again and thank you TK for the Friday update.

    NAM is rolling. Should see something during the 10AM hour, but I have another
    meeting! I HATE meetings.

    BTW, last night at 11PM Harvey was leaning towards the closer solution. hmmm

    1. Not tooooo close I hope. I want ALL snow! This is my main concern rather than OTS at the moment.

      1. That was my concern yesterday, now I am seeing an awful lot
        of support for mostly OTS. Very fickled.

        The atmospheric conditions are just too complicated for
        the models.

        This was all contingent on things coming together just right
        and the Northern stream player doesn’t want to cooperate.
        Thus the more progressive nature of this thing, a weaker system and a more off shore track.

        Perhaps the 12Z runs put the ingredients back together again, but time is running out.

  9. In the For What It Is Worth Department,
    The 6Z 4KM NAM has the system CLOSER to the coast than
    either the 12KM or regular 32KM NAM.

    This “may” mean nothing OR it “may” be very very significant.

    Waiting on the 12Z run. Oh and how I wish the 4km NAM went the full 84 hours as it currently stops at 60 hours.

  11. Big time blow to the “new” euro if this system ends up weak and offshore. I know last nights 00z was showing that but for a few days it was locked in to a monster hit, and right in the model’s sweet spot for accuracy. Curious what the now “old” euro is saying, if they are even still running it.

    1. I am quite disappointed in the turn of events. Something dramatically changed.
      I’d say perhaps it was initialization, but the 6Z runs followed suit, so I doubt
      it was that. Something to do with that Northern stream piece of energy
      that Bernie was pointing out in his video.

  12. Two things …..

    I think I already see cumulus clouds building on the distant NW horizon.

    I’m not sure you can compare the weekend storm to much of anything we have seen this winter. I don’t think we can conclude that because other cold systems have gone out to sea, that this one will. Even if it ends OTS, I think it will be for different atmospheric reasons this go around.

    Let’s see the next 12z and 00z runs.

    I would contend that both Boston and especially Marshfield had their snow accumulation potential actually rise with the 00z runs. It’s well inland that saw their snow potential decrease.

    3. With my limited knowledge but reading information, I agree.

      I am seeing cumulus clouds literally just popping over the tree line to my NW also. JPD, I would suspect you will see them soon. I didn’t see them until you called my attention to them, Tom

      1. I now can see some off to the NW. Smallish scatted cumulus
        without much growth to them as of yet.

      2. As I watch….they seem to be falling apart as they pass in direct line with my vantage point.

        Also, am I correct that there is not yet model consensus with regard to storm track or the outcome?

        And one final comment…wind is picking up here as I type.

        1. It’s up in the air, but there is much support for a mostly off shore solution. We’re all hoping that the 12Z runs give us a clearer idea of what to expect.

          1. Thank you – that was what I thought and it will become a bit more clear now as we get closer.

  13. I aknowledge the euro is still superior to other models but I wonder if they messed with a good thing after it correctly predicted Sandy. They made an upgrade shortly after that and for almost an entire calendar year it was having issues. Sometimes I think it is very accurate only in certain large scale atmospheric patterns and set-ups. Otherwise, it’s no better than the field.

    1. AS TK says, they will address any issues.
      They appear to be on top of things. The US models are seriously
      behind the 8 ball.

    1. Rehas of what they posted earlier this morning. Same ole, same ole.
      They don’t know what is happening. They still have the snow maps from
      4:49AM today. 😀

  19. I like that something called the DWD-ICON made an appearance today on the board 🙂

  24. Here ya gohttps://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/1004261322954459/?type=3

      1. Sure is and it pretty much agrees with DT’s.
        Not sure how they get that. I am waiting for the Euro.
        I think we know what the GFS will be like.
        Likely the Euro backs off even some more to be more like
        the NAM.

        We shall see.

      2. Roker (yes I know) said the American model has it mostly a miss and the Euro has it more of a hit (BTW it did make national news this am and was reported before anything was said about Trump which of course makes it huge news). I note JPD that you said Euro now has it weaker. An uneducated question. Does that mean it is coming in line with other models?

        1. Appears so, but DT says the 0Z run was “goofy”.
          So take that as you wish. Again, let’s see what the
          12Z runs shows. Everyone is waiting on that one. 😀

  28. 12ZNAM is out to 57 hours. I may be mistaken, but it looks like it’s more inside
    and more intense again???

  31. NOTES…
    -When I flagged this potential many days ago I was never considering this the biggest storm of the season necessarily, but the best set up, and it remains just that.
    -There are NO distinct model trends. We are seeing nothing unexpected. Model biases are revealing themselves. That leads me to the next point.
    -Apply meteorology and/or common sense and leave the “what I want to happen” factor out of it when trying to forecast this.
    -HINT: There will likely be boundary layer issues during at least portions of the event near the coast and certainly over Cape Cod, but expect the models to under-forecast the ability to chill the atmosphere from above, especially during rapid deepening, which will occur.

  32. Three different NAM products at 60 hours:

    32KM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016031812/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

    12KM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016031812/namconus_ref_frzn_us_20.png

    4KM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016031812/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_20.png

    4KM snow map with still some snow to go

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016031812/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    I pointed this out earlier with the 6Z runs.

    The 4KM NAM is clearly Farther North than the others and thus throws more
    snow into our area.

    Which is correct? One would naturally assume that the model with
    higher resolution (4KM NAM) would be more accurate, but that is not
    necessarily the case. We shall see.

    I hate this model divergence that goes on all of the time.

    We wait some more.

  33. If the 12z RGEM verifies, there won’t be a flake of snow anywhere. It’s generally a great model.

      1. Agree, it snows pretty much everywhere in SNE sun night and Monday AM. Question is if we are dealing with a light to moderate event or something bigger.

        RGEM is still in its long range and as we have seen so far with this storm, all models are having difficulty resolving the interaction of the shortwaves. As TK has said, we are not done with the model roller coaster ride.

  34. From one of the mets on the American Weather forum:

    Comparing 00z initialization to 00z raobs out west, the raobs are all higher heights than forecast by the Euro and GFS. It’s not a large margin, but uniformly 1-2 dm higher than modeled. So if this were to trend back stronger and closer to the coast at 12z I would not be surprised.

  35. TK, I was wondering if you could comment on why some of the models
    are showing a well off-shore solution. Many thanks

      1. OK, I gotcha, now for the $64,000 question…

        Which shortwave do you think will dominate?

        This event seems particularly troublesome, doesn’t it?

        Thanks

            1. And which one would favor more snow?
              We know if they phased, that would be the most. But which way does it go, depending on which SW is dominant?
              thanks again.

  36. From NBC30 meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan

    Just comparing the 12z Euro to the 00z Euro it seems like that lead s/w over the W NY on Sunday prevents the stronger s/w over Tennessee from amplifying fast enough as it moves up the coast. It’s pretty subtle but it seems like it’s enough.

  41. As I’ve seen several very smart people point out on Twitter, the reason this storm will mostly or completely miss all has to do with the 500mb pattern over the upper Midwest this morning. The bullish model forecasts of yesterday all had a strengthening, closed upper low developing there this morning. Didn’t happen. Still hasn’t. That’s why the correction on the models is so large, so fast. It’s why the 12z RGEM is likely correct on its first “in range” forecast. It only runs out 48 hours; it didn’t really get a chance to make the same mistake, at least in a way that would have a bearing on the potential storm. I don’t see how this could change back to yesterday’s projection. The key event, or lack thereof with the failed upper low development, has already happened.

    1. I agree at this point there is no way things revert back to a super amplified/ close to the coast solution. However, I disagree that this storm will end up whiffing. The 12z CMC and 0Z Euro are indications of how we can end up with a moderate to significant snowfall without phasing and with the wrong shortwave dominating.

    2. At this point of you had to guess a snow amount for Boston what would you go with?

    1. As best I am reading the panels, that is about 0.6-1.0″ QPF for most of the area on the UKMET.

    1. Look at my Euro. STILL a very decent hit. I am seeing about 10 inches
      for boston so far. Maps in a moment. 😀

  53. TK is a virtual soothsayer!!

    Euro Bullseye is the Boston to Providence corridor rt 95 and mostly from Rt. 95 to the N&W for a about 30 miles or so.

  55. I didn’t want to post a bunch of maps, but if you got to the Pivotal Weather site

    http://pivotalweather.com/

    And look at the Kuncera Snow Ratio charts for the GFS, GEM, and the 2 NAMS, you will see that the ratios are in the 8-10 inch range. I don’t have the Euro, but my guess is
    it would come in at 9 or 10.

    If one took the qpfs and multiplied by .8 and then by .1 those 2 readings
    would be the range.

    For example, the CMC comes in with 1.0 inch qpf = 8-10 inches

    Looks like we are not out of it just yet.

    I suppose there could be more wrinkles to come.

  57. Bernie posted Euro coming in as we speak. Holding serve…NEW ENGLAND, NEW ENGLAND, NEW ENGLAND. video coming.

  58. So EURO, UKMET, CMC all relatively west. Rest are east. This is a tough forecast, the feature that was supposed to develop in the Dakotas hasn’t done so yet.

    1. The last time it was the world team (ECMWF/UKMET/CMC) versus the team USA (GFS/NAM/etc.) the world team won easily. 😉

  60. Not able to make a Map right now, as I am busy but
    on My snow scale of 1-5
    I am guess a level 3 snowfall which is 4-10 range. some right around i95 seeing some level 4 snowfall which is a heavy snowfall. 10-20
    Which will produce level 3 travel conditions across eastern mass, RI Cape and Islands. Less the further west you go.

  61. It sounds like planning to drive from Newport to Boston on Monday morning early is still looking like a bad idea…

      1. I agree (at least on the part about the timing of the watch being issued). I am meteorogically challenged regarding predicting what may happen and where. 🙂

      1. I never said this was the “big one”. And by definition, their forecast map requires a watch.

  64. Starting to get the feel for this, #-wise. I like a general 4-8 inch snowfall and there is room for less than 4 in southwestern NH and north central MA where less precipitation may fall, and of course less than 4 inches somewhere in coastal areas especially southeastern MA / Cape Cod / Islands, southern RI regions, where we have much wetter snow and some rain involved. These are general first guess #’s for now. Someone may go over the 8 but I think if that happens it would be more the exception than the rule at this point.

      1. I’m going “reasonable” for what I have access to at this time.

        There will be boundary layer issues underneath a stock of cold air that could change everything in a hurry.

    1. EARLY guess: 4 or 5 inches and it may range from lower on the immediate coast to higher in the interior portions of the city.

  67. 4-8 is good – a moderate storm as you have been saying. Not sure how the map draws out or is that too early. If not, Would Framingham be in the 8 or maybe 6 range? Uxbridge? Thank you, TK!

  68. Just glanced at JR’s and Eric Fishers 7 day forecast, pretty entertaining and should please both snow and warm weather lovers! Prepare for crazy temperature swings next week 🙂

    1. I can see a high of about 35 Tuesday and 70 Friday if things pan out as I think they may.

  70. 18Z NAM is Way WIDE RIGHT!
    and for the most part it looks like a flattened pancake. Nothing
    to be feared, a WIMPORAMA for sure!

      1. If I am looking at the charts correctly, it has the Northern
        short wave pushing the Southern Sw out of the picture and thus
        taking a lesser storm OTS South of us.

        Is that correct?

        tx

    1. Bernie moved his 6-12 to the East some, but STILL has Boston within
      those totals.

      Foreign model believer who is NOT putting much faith in the SHITTY US models. 😀 😀 😀

  75. Just had a quick burst of small hail in Wrentham. Shower flared up just as it went overhead.

  76. Gotta run in a minute.

    I leave the blog with this snow map from the SREF

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f063.gif

    I don’t know how, but this seems to be a nice compromise between the American
    models and the Foreign models and almost in line with TK’s thinking, albeit perhaps
    a little short for some areas.

    Here is the low

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_PMSL_1000-500_THK_BLW_f060.gif

    Ensemble members low centers

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__f060.gif

    1. If any of the amounts in the range and/or point forecast are warning criteria, they must issue a watch.

  78. Looks like Camp Bust just may have been the place to stay. The models were more or less in alignment just 24 hours ago (I know, there were differences, but the big picture was about the same). Now, they diverge enormously. Certainly interesting from a scientific point of view. Why throughout this winter has there been so much model divergence? Surely, El Nino is part of the explanation. However, what else is playing a role? They say garbage in garbage out. A model is only as good as the inputs: variables and coefficients. If the inputs aren’t great with and without empirical data sampling, the model outcome won’t be.

  79. A second shower just moved through here, followed by a nice rainbow.

    Regarding the “bigger” storm: Team USA all the way.

    1. The rainbows have been nice to see. The wind is pretty fierce.

      Team USA may well win out, making the Sunday to Monday event a wimpy`storm’ indeed. We’ll see. It’s March, and like the basketball tournament, anything can happen. How about Yale and Middle Tennessee. Wow!

      1. I love it, the Middle Tennessee upset was awesome. And I could freely root for it without worrying about destroying my bracket… That part happened yesterday with Yale lol 🙂

    2. Even though I always say, “past performance does not guarantee future results”, the last time we had a set-up like this, the USA model suite got schooled by the world team. 😉

  80. Looking ahead, a cold Tuesday looks probable. But, if I were a met I would hold off on making a specific prediction about next Friday (70F!). I mean, come on, the models have been all over the place from one day to the next. Let’s see 3 days from now about that 70 degree prediction for Friday. I’m very skeptical.

    1. Unofficial prediction, if I had to put a range on next Friday, would be middle 60s to lower 70s.

      And the models that have been “all over the place” are the ones that I typically ignore when trying to medium range forecast temperatures. The more reliable set has been quite consistent for a few days on the warm scenario for March 25. But, I have the luxury above of not having to mention specific temps in the actual forecast post. Talking about them in the comments section is another matter. 🙂

      1. I trust your judgment. You are not a met I am critical of, either. You predict and then explain better than any met I’ve ever come into contact with. You’re also willing to tell us when you got something wrong and to explain why. This is something I try and do in my field of work, too. Not easy to do, but it’s the right way of going about doing professional work.

        And yes, I shouldn’t “verify” before a storm has happened. We’ll all have to wait and see what happens. Whether it’s a 2 foot hammer of a storm, or a stray flurry or 2, it’ll all be interesting to observe.

        1. I’m currently predicting something in between a flurry or 2 and a 2-foot hammering. 😉

  81. TK – Any more snow threats for the end of the month into very early April and if so, are the “set-ups” as good as this current one?

    1. Wow!! When I asked TK above if there were any more snow threats I was only thinking an inch here an inch there! 😀

    3. I am half joking about this after my growing frustration with this pending storm and the new/improved Euro’s apparent epic fail……however, the GFS has been pretty consistent with the idea of a trough in the east and associated coastal storm about 12 days from now. Something to keep in the back of our minds for that time period….

  85. Pea-sized hail coming down in Sudbury – lightly covering the ground. Sun coming out – beautiful sky!

    1. According to TK La Niña is going to be delayed so you can pretty much wipe that “blizzard” off the table. 😉

  87. Latest discussion from WPC on the impending storm. They are basically tossing the GFS.

    DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINAS SUN/MON
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC BLEND
    CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

    THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SPREAD OFFERED BY THE
    VARIOUS MODEL SOLNS AS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY
    SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.S…BUT THE SPREAD OPENS UP BY THE TIME THE
    SYSTEM REACHES THE EAST COAST WITH A CORRESPONDING SPREAD IN WHERE EACH MODEL STARTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

    THINK THAT THE 18/00Z ECMWF AND THE 18/12Z NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN
    THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE BUT THEN THE NAM CONTINUES EAST OF THE 18/00Z OPNL EC/EC ENS MEAN TRACK. THE GFS GOT BACK INTO
    BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS IDEA BY INCHING WESTWARD BUT IT STILL IS ON THE EASTERN/FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SO AM
    RELUCTANT TO PUT TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON ITS SOLN. IN ADDITION IT HAS
    HAD A POOR RUN TO RUN TRACK RECORD. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
    SOUTH/SLOW SIDE COMPARED WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE…SO WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ECMWF ALONG WITH THE UKMET/CMC IN ORDER TO ALLOW FOR A SOLN SOMEWHAT FASTER AND EAST OF THE ECMWF IDEA.

  90. Think EURO will end up winning this one, though anything above 8″ definitely won’t happen anywhere. This storm should really wind up as it moves by us, so we should see some of the heavier stuff.

      1. It never had a chance to be too impressive. Progressive systems that are not rapidly deepening never really dump a whole bunch of snow at this time of year.

        The March 29 1984 storm was an absolute hole in the atmosphere. Superstorm March 1993 speaks for itself of course. 🙂

        1. Funny how people remember the superstorm and not as much the March 29. It was easily as destructive as the Halloween storm …or maybe folks coped better back in the old days 😉 😉

  91. ANNOUNCMENT: JR is now the Chief Met at WHDH Ch. 7!! 😀

    Maybe this is old news but I just heard about it on this evening’s news.

    Too bad Ch. 7 may be gone at the end of the year. 🙁

    1. I suspected it was coming long before Pete left. There were some really odd vibes. I like JR. I loved Jr. and Pete as a team. But I prefer jr to Pete….

          1. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pete was like a mentor to JR. Do you agree that as a possibility Vicki?

                2. I haven’t seen Jeremy or Pete probably since college at LSC. But yes, I was in the met program with them at the same time. Both good guys.

                4. Yup. Physics killed me and also a few of the higher met courses too. But, I never lost my love for the weather and I was pretty strong in math and like to teach, so it all worked out 🙂 🙂

                5. All I know is Pete said you didn’t like washing dishes. Otherwise he said what we all know….you are a special person 🙂

  93. EURO, JMA, UKMET ULMET and Canadian vs. Nam, and gfs.
    EURO. weaker, but still gives 6+ in most south of the pike, and eastern areas. Less northwest and west.
    EURO ensembles (EPS) similar placement
    goes within or on the benchmark but is over 990mb. (lets see what the ooz shows)

    GFS. outside or along the benchmark 990mb storm (east of the euro/EPS) less than 4 inches in southeast mass.
    GEFS similar to the gfs, but if you look at this ensembles further west
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016031818&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=558

    Canadian. 995mb storm, travels along 40 degrees and turns out to 40/70 More snow. than the gfs with 4+ inches of snow.
    but looking at the GEPS. much closer to the coast. exactly like the euro
    but looking at the individual ensembles.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016031812&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=472
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016031812&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=472

  96. NWS snow map updated at 10:37PM. THey are leaning on the Euro and UKmet
    (Btw German and JMA support this as well), with some weight to the GFS.
    I suspect this will be downgraded more overnight UNLESS the CMC and EURO hold course.

    http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

    CMC 12Z Monday, don’t have snow map to go with this yet, but looks like a back off, but not nearly as much as NAM and GFS.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031900/gem_mslp_pwata_us_11.png

  97. I have a feeling the euro will also show less than the 12z. I was really hoping for my cousin from the UAE to see real snow

    1. My gut says Euro will be quite similar to 12Z, perhaps off just a bit to the 6-8 inch range, instead of 10 solid inches. We shall See. I could be way wrong.

  98. Barry just said a dusting at the most. Not sure what models he is following, but he said the lows won’t get together until they are far offshore, thus we will see little to no snow. Maybe a little on the Cape.

    1. He’s just in general shifting toward the GFS/NAM idea. There are 4 solid pieces of energy that have to come together for this thing to reach maximum potential. With better sampling of each area, it makes sense that the models (which have their flaws but are not completely useless) will get a handle on things. If the 00z ECMWF shifts way east then it’s pretty much set in stone. This is the nature of computer modeling. It’s imperfect and will never be perfect.

  99. And the verdict is in. Kiss it goodbye!

    0z Euro and UKMET are weak and way east.

    0z Euro delivers only 1-2″ for eastern CT and from Worcester to Boston. 3-4″ for most of RI, the South Coast of MA and Cape Cod. Virtually nothing west of Worcester and west of Hartford.

    1. So it says. We all know that when the CMC is out on a limb all by itself, itNEVER materializes. NEVER.

  102. I like what I’m seeing. Not much if anything from this potential. What a change of events!!!!! Start them Work on mon is a possibility Tuesday Or wed. trying to make a decision. Hmmmm 70 degrees here

    1. Coating to an 1″ maybe. All subject to change of course, but still can’t see much out of this one.

  104. Good morning and I concur. STICK A FORK IN IT!
    MISERABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE! MISERABLE!

    And for all of its short comings the American GFS and the NAM got it correct
    BEFORE the KING EURO!!!!!!

    WOW!!!!

      1. And what’s funny is while it was running in parallel it scored better than the old Euro and all of the other models. 😉

        1. But u have to admit, not after this update but the one before it, the euro hasn’t been the same, especially in progressive patterns.

  106. My RIP winter survives! I thought maybe I’d be in trouble because of getting over 6″ even with the shifts but no looking that way. Whew.

    I love snow and this winter sucked.

    The law of averages rules. Should have put some of last years snow in the freezer.

    1. I’m good with you getting it correct, BUT I am embarrassed that Charlie would
      get it correct. Go Figure! 😀 😀 😀

      What a Winter!

      1. That’s not getting it correct. There was no meteorology involved. That’s called: a lucky guess (sort of like anybody who never watched college basketball before and picked Middle Tennessee State). 😀

        1. How True, But he still guessed correctly because it
          was his WISHFUL THINKING!!!!

          It’s still nuts!

  107. Part of the most recent discussion from NWS. Are they ever cautious!

    THE BULK OF THE STORM IS STILL 48+ HOURS OUT ON THE MODEL
    GUIDANCE. WHILE THE GGEM WAS AN OUTLIER…IF THE STORM PHASES JUST A BIT EARLIER/CLOSER TO THE COAST ITS POSSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW REACHES THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR. IF 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH…THE NEXT SHIFT CAN CANCEL THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

  108. I don’t what I am more disappointed at this storm not materializing or my bracket getting crushed with that Middle Tennessee upset over Michigan State

  110. There are 2 bottom lines:
    -Guidance is still relied on too heavily based on past history.
    -To be fair to the guidance, this is one of the only times I’ve seen a situation in which 4 pieces of energy had to phase, versus 2 or 3 pieces. No wonder none of them could get it right at first.

        1. Me too, I never would have known it was 4 pieces. Excellent info as always TK !!

          I keep looking up in southern Canada and by 500 mb charts and the water vapor loop, it looks like the trof extending south from Hudson Bay really didn’t or isn’t ending up anywhere near as deep as thought 2 days ago.

    2. Barry talked about the 4 pieces of energy last night in his really late forecast following college basketball. It was the first I had heard it.

      1. I’ve been talking about these pieces behind the scenes with colleagues for a few days, trying to figure out what the heck was going to happen. I was thinking we needed 3 out of 4. Clearly needed all 4.

  111. I would have enjoyed the snowstorm, on the other hand, I don’t mind that it’s mostly a miss now either. Win-win.

    16 hrs to the equinox.

  112. Of course, it might frustrate if the models nail the March 25th system, which they’ve been fairly consistent on now for 3 to 4 days already. Hopefully that doesn’t end up being a big severe weather producer south and west of us.

  113. Give credit where due to the US models. They weren’t perfect, but certainly superior to the foreign models. The 12z ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC yesterday made little sense to me. A storm weaker than 985mb or so at our latitude wouldn’t be nearly as far west as those runs showed. Sometimes, as with this one, these events are pretty much all or nothing.

    1. Indeed. Shades of a 15 seed (GFS) upsetting a 2 seed (EURO)

      I know, who is the 1 seed …….. TK !!

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