Monday Forecast

186 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)…
This will be a quick update due to time constraints on my part this morning but will expand on it in comments later today. Winter weather event ongoing, behaving as expected, and will wind down slowly this morning. Clearing may be interrupted by a trough that brings a few passing rain showers later today. Return to fair weather for a day Tuesday before another period of unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity mid to late week, and it looks like the cooler side of the front is going to have the stronger push.
TODAY: Snow, some mix/rain Cape Cod, tapering off gradually this morning. General accumulations of snow 3-6 inches but less on Cape Cod and a slight risk of a couple amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Partial clearing but a passing rain shower possible mid or late afternoon. Late-day highs in upper 30s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod region, shifting to the W by the end of the day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. A few episodes of rain//mix. Lows in the 30s. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)…
Improving weather March 26-27, turning milder. Wet weather may return mid period before fair and cooler to colder late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)…
Pattern looks colder than normal and potentially stormy. Not sure on this yet.

186 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. We ended with a 2 hour delay called at 530am which looks in the end to be a good call.

  2. Tom, glad you are ok and got to the hospital when you did. What a scary time for you and your family. I have family history on my Dad’s side and have to keep a close eye on things. You will probably be ordered now to have a stress test every couple of years to make sure the blockage(s) don’t redevelop. Get well soon and hope you can go home later today.

  3. Tom, I’m very glad you’re okay and in good hands at the hospital. Take care of yourself. Health is what matters most.

  4. Tom – So glad you are ok! Having gone through a close shave myself with a bilateral PE a few years ago my advice is to be sure to take time to let your body and mind heal and let the experience process. I found it took some time for me – almost scarier a few months after – but it really can be a life altering wonderful thing – nothing like a shake up & a second chance to help me appreciate every single beautiful day a little more. Please take good care of yourself while you heal!

  5. Not much snow, but certainly a pretty first day of spring (or is the first day tomorrow?). Despite there not being a lot of snow we’ll probably see remnants this week, given that it’s not going to warm up until late this weekend. Down the road, it looks like even SNE may get in some more snow action late this month and in early April. Perhaps several large storms pose significant snow threats for central and northern NE. I should reiterate how prescient Dr. Cohen was.

    I bet the mosquitoes that decided to return early 10 days ago aren’t very happy.

  6. From eyeballing it I would say we have around 4-5 inches here in southeast Westford – we had a pretty intense band go through from about 6:30-7:30 but now just big fluffy flakes – very pretty – even for a snow-a-phobe.

  8. 4.5 inches in Woburn as of 7:30AM. Will get final number later. I’m in Reading now. Going to measure here.

  10. Radar shows the possibility of a couple of heavier bands on their way. Not sure they’ll make it to Boston.

  11. Channel 7 back to their map changing game. Woke up and they shifted heavy snow east and had me in the 1-3″ now they have 3-6″ over half the state again. Cue the circus music!

      1. Oh I know I trust your forecast just find it funny how change it all the time. Use to like their style but lately it’s been “change the map with every model run” over there. I think as you would say, no applied meteorology.

    1. John, I measured 4.0 inches on the level at my house in JP just before 8 AM.
      Not snowing hard. I am hopeful Logan got their 4.1 to make 30 inches. 😀

  14. When I arrived at the office, the visibility was up there, say around 3 miles or so.
    It has now dropped to about 1.5 miles and looks to drop further. 😀

    Good, that “should” put Boston over 30 inches for the year.

    TK, EXCELLENT call. I’d say 3-6 inches is spot on, even if there is an isolated
    amount a little bit more than that.

  16. 5.5″ of snow in Coventry, CT and still snowing lightly. Did not think we would pull this much off this far west. Must have gotten into a heavier band overnight.

    Tom, I hope you have a speedy recovery. Thank God you caught it early!

    Vicki, good luck with the move!

  17. The moderate band coming thru eastern MA now was expected. We discussed this yesterday as it showed up on some short range guidance. Good performance by the guidance.

  21. Tom, So sorry to hear of your operation and hospital stay. Glad to hear all went well and hope you have a quick recovery!

  24. Vicki, I hope you have a quick and easy move today. Wishing you all the best in your new home.

  26. Thanks TK. Looks to be about five inches here in Halifax but I haven’t officially measured yet.

    Tom – hope you get to go home today and wish you a speedy recovery.
    Vicki – best of luck with the move today, thinking of you.

    1. Can’t see it charlie.
      I presume it is a beautiful shot of the beach there to make us envious?

  29. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, I just saw your reply to me on yesterday’s blog. Sounds as if you are in exceptional hands. Hope you are able to get home quickly. From experience with my mother in law, Getting Better’s advice is excellent.

    Thanks for the good move wishes. Our move starts tomorrow with packing and then moving on Wednesday. My concern was having the driveway clear for the trucks tomorrow at the crack of dawn.

      1. We’d been looking for about a year but put it on hold when Mac started to struggle. Just need a place where we can have our own space. 🙂

  31. Despite the 5.5″ that accumulated here, there wasn’t more than an inch or two to clear on the driveway and roads are pretty much just wet after being plowed the last time. Schools were delayed 90 min and that turned out to be a good call.

  33. Thanks, TK.

    We got 4 inches of snow here in Sudbury. Bottom part of snow was heavy and wet – top part drier and somewhat fluffier.

  37. A picturesque late winter snow. David Epstein nailed part of his forecast. He said the snow would barely stick to roadways. He was right. Just not intense enough, and the time of year. Nevertheless, in Back Bay we picked up a good 4 inches or so. TK, your forecast was awesome as usual!

    By the way, I don’t think we’re done for the winter season. Looks like several more weeks of relatively cool (sometimes even cold) weather with rain/snow/mix chances for sure in SNE, and snow up in central and northern NE.

    Vicki, good luck today! It’s been such a busy time for you. Emotional as well. I hope the move goes well.

  38. Found a spot I was off. Part of northeast MA and NH Seacoast. 6 to 9 inches thanks to synoptic enhanced snow band.

  39. Think I had at least 4″ today. Shoveled…didn’t do the roof (it’s on you TK if theres a problem HAHA). Was already melting when I left for work. Definitely had a different feel to it being so late in the season.

    TK, I conceded…you have defeated the mighty Magic 8 Ball with your voodoo and I admit defeat. Same goes to you JPDave.

  42. Odd I typed up a big thing, hit submit fine, and it never showed? Oh well…

    Summary:

    1. Had about 4″, came up easy…can tell it’s not mid winter snow
    2. TK you have defeated the Magic 8 Ball with your voodoo
    3. JPDave, I stand corrected with you too
    4. I didn’t roof rake so any issues it’s on you TK HAHA.

  47. TK…Don’t fret over your “synoptic enhanced snow band”…
    Hardly anyone’s brackets had MTSU over Michigan St. last week either.

    Tom, recover quickly and get better. Rest up! Your students will be fine. You take care of yourself!

    Third snow day in the ‘Boro (Middleborough)…Last day for teachers is now Wednesday, June 22.

    Have a good week, everyone!

  49. Not totally sure, but I believe Logan’s next snowfall obs. will be at 1:00 p.m. My bet is it will be short of 30″ to date for the season.

    1. They should have made it, UNLESS they were taking measurements
      on the runway behind a jet with its engines blasting away!

      1. I hope you are right JP. I don’t know if it snowed hard enough since last obs at 7:00 a.m. They needed 1″+. We will know soon.

    1. Wow you got shafted. My friend in SE NH sent a photo of his ruler in the snow. Over 8 inches there.

      1. It seems like the areas that were supposed to get the most got the least and areas to the north and west of I95 (not warned or advised) ended up with the most.

  53. WBZ snow totals – about right for Framingham as I measured just under 6

    West Brookfield 7.0″
    West Boylston 7.0″
    Dracut 6.8″
    Bradford 6.5″
    Fitchburg 6.2″
    Lunenburg 6.2″
    Billerica 6.1″
    North Reading 6.0″
    Framingham 6.0″
    Chelmsford 6.0″
    Leominster 6.0″
    Groton 6.0″
    Haverhill 5.8″
    Lexington 5.7″
    Westboro 5.5″
    Boxford 5.5″
    Carlisle 5.2″
    Ashburnham 5.2″
    Natick 5.0″
    Sudbury 5.0″
    Milford 5.0″
    Hopkinton 5.0″
    Boston 2.8″

    1. I am not shooting the messenger here and I know this is from channel 4,
      but in all seriousness, that 2.8 inches for Boston is HIGHLY SUSPECT imho.

  55. My brother said 1.5-2 inches fell. Nothing much accumulated on any roadways. Was this a busted forecast? I’m not sure what considers a busted forecast. Boston received 2.6 inches?

    1. Forecast was 3-6. I would say forecast was spot on. I am not a met but I do have common sense. When the forecast is for 3-6 and the majority of the region receives between 3-6…..well, I suspect you can take it from there.

      Also, the link you sent from antiqua seemed to indicate it was from your FB page but I couldn’t see it there either.

    2. The storm itself was not a bust. But, north and west of Boston more accumulated than was expected. And, south, southwest, and southeast of Boston less fell than was expected. Very hard to predict where banding will occur. Boston did not just get 2.6 inches. I believe Logan’s last report was 2.8, but that is highly suspect. I measured 4.5 inches, and my guess is that this total is an average for the city.

      Have a good flight back from Antigua, and make sure you bundle up when you arrive. It’s not winter cold here, but it ain’t spring warm either.

      2. Thank you Joshua. I believe I won the snow contest? Yes it will feel cold returning wed afternoon/evening. Back to work Thursday and Friday. Like I’ve said though very happy and ahead of years past.

        1. We won’t know who won the contest until we’re 100% sure there will not be anymore snow, and we’re not quite there yet.

    4. Boston had over 3 inches. The correction will appear later.

      Not a busted forecast at all. There are always a couple areas that under-perform, or over-perform. We had a small area of under-performance south southwest of Boston, and a swath of over-performance well northwest to north of Boston. Check the list of snowfall amounts for confirmation of this, as well as confirmation that most of the area came in as forecast, 3 to 6 inches, with less on Cape Cod. I explained what a busted forecast is on yesterday’s post.

        1. You were in the southern part of the area that came in heavier than my forecast range. I don’t think too many saw to put a 4-8 inch band in that area…most of us had 2-4 there and heavier to the southeast. I just left the 3-6 as a broadbrush so it was minutely closer to what happened but not much.

      3. There will always be isolated locations that under or over perform.
        Your forecast was better than ANY out there.

        Great Job!!!

        2. There is absolutely not way to isolate specific areas. I think the majority of people understand that 3-6 is a rough range…or I hope to heck they are intelligent enough to understand it.

    1. I’m back in Woburn. It’s melting steadily, as expected. I left a section of back stairs alone for 6 hours and the snow is half of what it was when I left. My cleanup is done except I’m about to finish those stairs (2 minute job).

      This is an easy one. Just clear any paved/cement surface you don’t want any black ice on in the morning, because it will be pretty cold tonight so any melt-water will freeze. It will warm up quickly tomorrow so any ice will vanish after early morning.

      Roof will be fine. A coating will remain tonight and disappear tomorrow.

  57. ALthough the Euro does not specifically indicate a snow storm for 3/31 , 4/1, it
    certainly hints at something happening in that time frame.

    Something to watch.

    The GFS and the CMC hint at something happening 3/28 or 3/29.

    So unsettled weather looms ahead. Will the elements align to give us another
    early Spring bout with snow, or will have a cold Spring rain.

    Time will tell. Time will tell.

      1. Well it’s only a forecast, long range, but if it did happen, it’d be mighty cold for the date.

    3. YIKES, that sure looks chilly. Would temps get out of the 20s that day?
      certainly Not out of the 30s. That’s cold!!!

    1. It can stop there if it wants. I had 29.9. 😉
      Or maybe they can squeeze out another 0.4 when that Arctic air comes in early April. 😉

        1. It would be nice, but it’s not official yet. 😉

          We have other cities to verify too, but I’m going to wait until about Tax Day to declare the snow threat over, as I think we go into a long-term warm pattern again by then.

          Winter is still in the game until then.

    1. How about a 15 inch monster in April to put Boston over the season average.
      That’s what I would like to see.

    1. Not that particular one. It’s a stock image from WordPress, but I love it. I’m hoping to upload my own photos there very soon. If you are friends with me on Facebook, you see a whole lot of weather-related photos. 😀

    2. I could see the cold happening just like that. The signals are there not just on the operational GFS, but elsewhere.

      1. That kind of cold in early April will take care of Zika in New England in one fell swoop.

        I noticed the trend for this weekend is for cool temperatures to prevail. Not quite as cool as Thursday and Friday, but still.

        My guesstimate is that Boston gets another 3 inches of snow by the time winter is all said and done, Providence 2 inches, Worcester 10, southern New Hampshire 12, northern NE between 15 and 30. Snow is really piling up in northeastern Maine as well as New Brunswick, with another storm coming later this week.

    2. My brother mom and dad said its bare ground in north Attleboro plainville to. Didn’t even have to move it. I’m seriously thinking about sending a couple of lawn techs out to so 50-60 visits tue and wed local. Suppose to be 45-50 tommorrow? Tk does that sound about right for temps?

      1. I like 45-50 for highs in that area tomorrow. When I posted earlier about Thursday versus Wednesday, I had not seen all the snow reports yet. Now that I know that area was a “holed-out” (get it?), I’d say you can probably do visits Wednesday, which may start out mild then turn cooler later as a front drops down from the north.

        The heads up for Thursday-Friday is not necessarily that any really nasty weather will occur, but at least part of that 2-day period may be quite cool and overcast. It remains to be seen if we finally get the front to lift northward during Friday to get at least some milder air, but we’ll see about that.

          1. Just do what you can and we’ll see what the longer range brings. I think if we get cold, it’ll be more of a dry cold and in passing shots. Long term is warm. That will just be a bump in the road.

    1. a lot to change, as we all know the models are not handling anything that well lately. 😛 But there will probably be something cooking.

      1. Given the ECMWF’s performance heading into this event, I’m not sure I trust it. In fact, I’m beginning to think we may see a scenario a little closer to the GFS for late this week. I had said before that Thursday AND Friday would be chilly, and it still may be the case somewhat, but we may get that warm front through here more easily than the Euro had hinted. Before that, it had it through here full tilt which caused some met’s to put 70+ on 7-day forecasts. Not that I fault them for doing it – they have to put something there.

  65. Dr. Cohen’s Blog is out.

    Exerpts

    Based on model predictions the potential exists for a cold start to spring in the central and eastern North America for an extended period.

    The models predict that the Gulf of Alaska high and Hudson Bay low couplet will persist this period. This will maintain positive geopotential height anomalies across western North America and negative geopotential height anomalies in Eastern Canada (Figure 4b). This will result in the continuation of the mild temperatures for the Western US, Western Canada and Alaska and increase the probability of cold air sliding down from Central and Eastern Canada into the Central and Eastern US this period.

    (This is called the JOSHUA EFFECT my words, not Dr. Cohen’s) 😀

    Link: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    1. Yes, and because my last name is Cohen and I am a PhD I could actually impersonate Dr. Cohen. But, I won’t because my limited meteorological skills would be immediately transparent which would make me a fraud. Besides, nobody wants an economist as a weather forecaster.

    1. The roof too?! Wow it’s gonna be cold in that house tonight. Good thing the precipitation is over at least. 😉

          1. Hey Vicki, did you move to a new house or a condo or something? Just curious…I am late to the moving conversation.

            1. House and packing and moving over two days so not quite yet. We are going for the long term type move 🙂

  67. Eric on air mentioned still opportunities for snow ahead with cold air building. I was surprised to hear him say something like that with too many TV mets wanting to declare winter over by mid-February.

    One has to wonder if Eric has been reading this blog recently. Hmmm. 😉

  68. For those who made predictions for snowfall at Bradley in Windsor Locks 2.7 inches fell with this system bringing the total to 20.0 inches.

    1. I think next year will be a good one for you, JJ, and others living in the interior. It’s just a hunch, but still.

      1. Joshua past two winters a lot of these bigger storms I been missing the brunt of where eastern parts of CT have been having the bigger snow totals.
        By comparison at Sikorsky where records are kept for Shoreline CT there snowfall for the season is pretty close to normal.

        1. JJ, I am sitting at just over 34″ on the season in Coventry. Once again this year, a big disparity from BDL as a result of higher elevation and storms favoring more eastern areas in CT and SNE.

  71. Tk
    Yesterday you mentione a new term. AMO
    ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION
    Thats’s a mouthfull. Care to elaborate
    For our fellow bloggers. I looked it up so I at least have an idea. Many thanks.

    1. Yes, we’ll go into that tomorrow. Been away from my computer most of the night. 🙂

  75. Know it is far out, but how likely is it that the clipper system train ( i like to call it, starts up. … there are 5 different areas of energy. with plenty of cool air just to the north

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