Monday Forecast

104 Comments

1:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)…
A double-barrel low pressure system will bring wet weather to southern New England today making it a classic rainy Monday. One low will pass south of the region with the other passing to the north. The southern system, bring the stronger of the two, means an east to northeasterly flow of chilly air along with the wet weather. After passing, the two lows will take part in a “maritime merger” on Tuesday and form one very strong storm systems. The result here will be dry weather but lots of wind and still a chill. But as has been the case for quite some time, systems continue to cruise along, and a high pressure area will govern the weather Wednesday, but passing south of the region, allowing a gusty westerly breeze to take over, which will then shift to southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will bring warmer air in but continue the windy regime. Rain showers associated with the cold front seem, at this time, destined to hold off until Thursday night and we’ll have to wait for a secondary front to come along later Friday to put an end to the shower threat, though it will remain mild for Friday as well, which is the first day of April.
TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain, some of which may be briefly heavy. Remote chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Highs 40-45 southern NH and northern MA, 45-50 southern MA and RI. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in southern MA and RI, shifting to SE late in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain showers evening, then partial clearing overnight. Lows 35-40. Wind SE shifting to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Chance of rain showers at night. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)…
Cooler and breezy April 2 with mainly dry weather. Colder and windy April 3 with possible rain to snow showers. Lots of clouds, breezy, and very cool April 4. Fair and cool April 5. Continued cool with a chance of rain later April 6.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)…
Unsettled weather early in the period followed by a turn to fair weather, including a milder trend.

104 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Did anywhere hear that a volcano erupted in Alaska? Would this have any effect on our weather in the coming months? Also how’s our drought looking?

    Thank you TJ

    1. It would highly depend on the degree of eruption. Will need more info.

      Drought was reduced due to better precipitation in recent weeks, but we teeter on the edge and can end up back into it easily. Some areas are still labeled as abnormally dry by the US Drought Monitor.

  4. Thanks TK !

    The funny part about the turn to cold in early April is that in Marshfield anyway, with the cold punch and a NW land wind, it will probably end up being slightly milder than it was during Easter weekend. I don’t think we made it much past 40F the last 2 days and that light onshore flow was really a kind of cold that goes through you.

  7. Thanks, TK. Your classic rainy Monday made me smile. As I was waking up and enjoying the sound of rain on the windows, my thought was that this is a true rainy day Monday but it sure doesn’t get me down. Seems April showers are early this year, but then everything else is a tad early also. I had forgotten to mention before moving that the forsythia in our Framingham yard were beginning to show some yellow.

    1. Carpenters on the car stereo today. Of course “Rainy Day And Mondays” is included. 🙂

      2. I’ve been singing the song since I posted the comment. …..well humming it. Love the carpenters. Such a sad story though.

  10. Looking at everything this morning, it appears the euro ensembles have backed off on the cold a bit as compared to the GEFS. And even the GFS has back off some too. Still a week out, so a lot could change. And it’s definitely going to get cooler. But, I’m not sure we see the depth of cold as the operational showed just a day or so ago. By listening to some of the media, you’d think we were going back to deep deep winter. Upper mid west and northern plains should see the brunt. Parts of northern NE at elevation could see highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
    Like Tom suggested above, some of the high temps early next week for SNE may not be much worse than what some saw this weekend, or even today. The difference, at least from what I see, is the diurnal swing. Instead of a 10 degree swing, we could see a 20 degree swing instead.
    Despite the –EPO, that mid week warm up should come to fruition. There’s a pretty big omega block out west that should raise heights enough to get some high 50’s or low 60’s in here, depending on mixing and sun of course.
    After the cold shot next week, it does look a tad more zonal, maybe; that’s a long way out to look with much confidence in early spring with constantly changing air masses (i.e.read progressive) . Certainly not an upper 60’s look, but seasonable. In case anybody is wondering, average high in Boston the first week of April is 51-53, give or take a pinch, but the standard deviation is fairly large. So all in all, not really that far off normal for this time of year. Sorry this was long, I’m kind of a stats geek too 🙂

    1. Good morning BlackstoneWx,

      Are you new here? OR are you a regular who has change the handle?
      If new, I am so sorry I missed your introduction and a warm welcome to you.

      Now Blackstone could mean the actual town of Blackstone OR any community
      in the Blackstone Valley and/or along the river.

      You wouldn’t be from Northbridge, would you? 😀

      2. No, you and BlackstoneWX inform and doing so in a simplified way would not do your posts justice. I ramble 😉

  13. I’m going to beat JPDave to it.
    Today BLOWS CHUNKS!
    But we do need the rain.
    My Accurite station shows 0.59″ as of 2:19.

    JP, I’m in the valley close to Vicki 😉
    Vicki, where are you in Sutton? Oxford side, Millbury side, Manchaug section?
    Sutton is big. Not much “town”, but big in area. They just put in a big Store 32 at
    Boston road and 146.

    1. Actually, today doesn’t bother me as much as Saturday and Sunday did with
      that biting cold off of the ocean. Hey, it has to rain sometimes and a Monday
      is about the best day that could occur. 😀

      I want some WARMTH! Waiting on Euro. 0Z called for 70 this week.
      We shall see what 12Z has to say.

          1. As depicted, no. It slides out South of us.
            IF, however, there was a Northward drift to
            this set up, then, yes some light snow would
            be possible. It actually has 4-5 inches in
            parts of PA.

      2. Saturday and Sunday weren’t that bad for me. 50 miles from the ocean 😉
        Today I’m in Boston, and its raw!

  15. Hour 192 on the EURO, I wonder if that projected scenario spits out a light amount of snow in southernmost New England ??????

    1. As depicted, no. It slides out South of us.
      IF, however, there was a Northward drift to
      this set up, then, yes some light snow would
      be possible. It actually has 4-5 inches in
      parts of PA.

  16. Blackstone…Thanks again for educating me about those CPC outlook maps. I have to remember to keep in mind that the colors are probability and NOT intensity (or lack thereof). 😀

    In fact, the latest 6-10 day has very deep blues over NE in particular. Not to worry, I won’t be reaching for an extra blanket or anything like that. 😉

    1. HA!
      You may need it!
      The 8-14 is down to 30-40% chance. That product is tough to read though. Also keep in mind that on Saturday and Sunday, its a strict rip and read. Weekdays there is interpretation done, but on the weekends no one is around so its straight off the model.

    1. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

      Please make it 0.5 inch to top off at a nice even 30 inches.
      It would be pathetic to end the season with 29.9 inches. 😀 😀 😀

        1. I believe Boston averages just under an inch of snow per year in April. Of course, it is an average, which means that 25 inches on April 1, 1997 could be followed by 25 years of zilch and we’d average an inch of snow a year.

          I won’t be on the blog much this week as I’ve got a tough workweek ahead.

          Did want to mention that there’s yet another winter storm about to move into northern Maine. As the winter snow season slowly comes to an end parts of northern Maine may actually wind up having a `normal’ year in terms of snow accumulation.

          Thank you, TK, as always for your forecast. And welcome, BlackstoneWx, to the blog.

              1. No problem Joshua. What is interesting is that Boston averages more snow in April than in November (1.3″).

            3. Huh?? 2.0 inches. I’m not being a wise guy, but every year it seems to go up a half inch. I remember the 30 yr average being less than an inch at Logan. I never think of both nov or April as winter or snow months. Providence average in April is less than half inch and after April 10th it’s 0.0.

              1. The last time it snowed in April that I remember was 20yrs ago, 1 time in my life, and I’m in my 40’s, I feel like there may be slightly better odds of a hurricane eye coming within 50 miles of us than snow accumulations in November or April. maybe bc it melts so rapidly within a day of falling idk?

                1. The odds are far, far FAR greater of having accumulating snow in November and April than a hurricane eye within 50 miles of us. And the 30 year averages get updated every 10 years, so they change a little bit.

    1. You’ll probably be right about that. 0.4 at Boston would be very insignificant. 😉 But I need 0.4 … 😀

    2. If you change the number 9 to 8 you have a good chance of being right, Charlie. But, 9 months from now it’ll be December 28th. The odds are that at some point in late November and/or December 2016 we’ll have a snow event or storm “of significance” (you probably mean measurable snow that sticks to pavement).

  19. Woods Hill Weather says:
    November 15, 2015 at 8:26 PM

    Snow Contest 2015-2016

    Boston: 29.9
    Worcester: 49.9
    Providence: 24.9
    Hartford: 39.9

  20. TK – Are you actually predicting 0.4″ for Boston or is it mainly just what you need for the contest? 😉

    1. BOTH!
      Well here’s the thing. Given that the average is 2.0 for Boston, and it’s skewed slightly but a couple larger snowfalls that are quite rare, I figure odds favor them getting under 2.0 inches, so why not 0.4? I mean that would give me what I need yet cause virtually no issue for travel. 😀

        1. I explained why it is. Also, see my reply above and the post just below this which will help you to understand a little better.

  21. Boston’s average snow for April, to be precise, is 1.9 inches.
    Boston averages measurable snow ONE out of every FOUR Aprils.
    The average of 1.9 is skewed SLIGHTLY upward by the inclusion of the April Fools storm in 1997 as well as several measurable snowfalls in April of 1996 in the 30-year average.

    So, unless we’re getting hurricane eyes within 50 miles of us more often than I am noticing, and not even taking November into account, the odds of the hurricane eye within 50 miles and measurable snow in April AT LOGAN are not even a close comparison. 🙂

    If you do take November into account, it only makes the odds even further spread out, as Boston’s average snow for November is 1.3 inches, and they get at least 3 inches for the month an average of ONE out of every FOUR Novembers, and that average is not significantly skewed by any particular event in the last 30 years.

  22. According to NWS there are a couple of clippers to watch next week as far as final snow opportunities. The anomolous cold is definitely coming.

    Keep us posted as always TK.

    1. Final chance around April 11. After that, transitional pattern then into the warmer side of things.

  25. Charlie, If memory serves me and often it does not, we had a tax day…or day after…snow April 2014. I am happy to be corrected. Or perhaps you inadvertently added a zero to the two?

    1. I have no idea. I don’t remember it, if it doesn’t effect me in a negative fashion I don’t remember. Last time I remember a April snow event effecting me was 97.

        1. Totally agree but if we receive an inch or 2 and it’s gone the same day. it’s not memorable and doesn’t effect me.

          1. The half inch of snow I had on May 18 2002 was memorable and did affect me. I was in awe. 😀

            2. If that happened I’d remember that, but you and I know, and you can even blame me, if it didn’t happen at my house i wouldn’t remember

        1. Did you do some meteorological analysis to arrive at that? Because there are some signs of snow showers Sunday and a potential for a minor snow event early next week, and another one following.

          1. Nope just going with a good hunch . A flurry does not count and you know that . Around here Plows and sanders done . Snow is done till end of the year if I’m eating crow I’ll take it like a man .

            2. When I’m talking about snow I’m not necessarily talking about the type of snow that you’re going to have to push off roads.

              Snow is snow, whether it accumulates on roadways or not. I’m talking about the occurrence of it. And Boston (or anywhere) can get measurable snow without having any accumulate on roadways. The official measurements are not taken on asphalt.

    2. It’s a weather blog, soy have to understand all the possibilities. Yes snow is very rare this time of year, but again on a weather blog many like snow and I understand that. On a side note I’ve been enjoying the weather since the end of February. 🙂

    3. Given that I’m forecasting 2 snow chances in the next 2 weeks, I’ll be talking about snow until the threat has passed. FYI, it can snow in Spring here, just in case you didn’t know. 😛 😀

        1. Ah, so ignore the meteorology that shows legit chances of flakes (I’m not talking about a big snowstorm here, just cold enough for some flakes). But that’s your choice. 🙂

  28. Are we supposed to have wind? I’m not seeing anything so perhaps it isn’t this far south and west? I was looking forward to it and battened down the bird feeding system 🙂

  30. Another run of the EURO showing cool to cold high pressure to our north and weak low pressure to our south. I believe it’s in the 4/5 to 4/7 time frame. Nice temperature gradient too just south of New England.

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