Thursday Forecast

128 Comments

3:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)…
The volatility of Spring will be on display as we end March and begin April. What we do know: Changes will be frequent and sometimes very pronounced. What we don’t know: The small details, but below I’ll try to give a breakdown of how I expect it to go and as always a fine-tuning will be done in updates to come… First, as we say goodbye to March, we’ll do so with a reminder of the warmer than normal weather that dominated a good portion of the month. This will be done with a strong southwest wind, however, which will take away from what would be a otherwise a very enjoyable day. A cold front approaching tonight and Friday will bring cloudiness and several rounds of rain showers. And then comes the transition to colder weather during April’s first weekend. With the upper level trough slow to pass and one front in the vicinity, I’m going to lean a little more pessimistic than I had been before on Saturday’s forecast, keeping lots of clouds and the chance of rain showers in it. A small but intensifying low pressure area will move across the region in the early hours of Sunday, dragging a very late season Arctic cold front through, bringing strong winds, much colder air, and a chance of snow showers Sunday. There’s even the risk of a period of snow with the low itself that may result in some accumulation of snow for parts of the region Sunday morning, depending on timing. Quick-moving systems mean that the next round of unsettled weather, in the form of snow or mix, may arrive by later Monday, depending on the movement of a wave of low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes region.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s South Coast / Cape Cod, 60s elsewhere, may touch 70 in valleys. Wind SW increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, especially overnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers day and evening. Period of rain/mix to snow overnight. Temperatures steady in the 40s day falling to the 30s evening.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Very windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)…
Showers of snow/mix possible early April 5 otherwise windy. Fair April 6. Mix/rain possible April 7. Chance of rain/mix/snow April 8, then rain/snow showers April 9. Temperatures below normal throughout the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)…
A shift to milder weather with fair weather for the most part except some mid-period rain showers.

128 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. One thing the new upgrade did not fix was the Euro’s inability to forecast snow amounts more than a few days in advance with anything resembling ballpark accuracy or greater.

      And the CMC continues to be over-inflated.

  6. TK – Is it possible that we end up getting more snow with the weekend arctic front than the Mon-Tue system?

    1. IMHO, yes! My concern is that the Mon-Tues system tracks just a bit
      too far North to give snow to SNE, except perhaps a bit of backend snow.
      On the other hand, the Saturday evening system “could” track just far enough
      South to give us a period of snow.

      So who the bleep knows for sure. We continue to monitor the model runs
      and trends.

      1. Interesting NWS discussion concerning this:

        SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING … INTERESTING WEATHER POSSIBLE AS
        VIGOROUS POLAR JET WITH POTENTIAL TROP FOLD IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC
        SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW RAPIDLY
        INTENSIFYING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW
        ENGLAND. VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
        FEATURE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM!
        SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE
        REALIZED IN THE FORM OF ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOW PROB
        OF THUNDER! COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
        ALONG AND BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT. WHILE THIS TROP FOLD EVENT WILL
        LIKELY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE 12/9/2005 CASE…IT BEARS WATCHING
        FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

        1. And likewise interesting discussion re: Mon-Tues

          MON/TUE … DESPITE TIME RANGE HERE VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG
          DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUID FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO TRACK ALONG OR
          NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
          SNOW INLAND WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST
          MA. LOTS OF PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITH SMALL FRONTAL WAVES AT THIS
          TIME RANGE HAVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST AND DISCUSSION PROBABALISTIC VS.
          DETERMINISTIC. EC AND EPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN REMAINDER OF GUID. IN
          ADDITION THIS TIME OF YEAR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HINGE ON
          PRECIP INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS SETUP.
          TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO MENTION ANY DETAILS. ALTHOUGH STAY TUNED.

    1. You can say that again. Car thermometer was reading 55 on the way in this morning. Pretty decent launching point. If it stays mostly sunny, 70 is a cinch.

  10. Thank tk and yes overtime we are again seeing trends to go less and less. In the end very insignificant,, but it is nice to watch

    Beautiful today!!

    1. You’re talking about the European which always goes high. There is no less and less trend, just a waffling, which I did tell you to expect.

  11. Starting 2 nd rounds today, comparably speaking last yr to date we had only 50 visits complete. It’s go go go time now, dandys and clover up the gazoo, lots of spot treating. Good day everyone

  12. I happened to be out around 3pm yesterday when Logan was 58 but had a dew point of 19F or 20F and I’m out again now, when its 57F but with a low 42F dewpoint. For me anyway, it just feels so much milder today because of the extra moisture in the air.

    It’s interesting, a 42F dewpoint in summer would feel so dry and comparatively after yesterday’s teens dewpoints, 42F is making the air feel milder.

    Looking forward to tonight and tomorrow to see what the dewpoints top off at.

  15. Thank you TK

    I have given up trying to keep chairs and fire pit upright. I do enjoy the wind. Wunder station in this area just had 23 gust.

  16. How’s rain looking tomorrow? I know it’s not steady. TK any idea how our area will be in terms of rain between noon and 3:00pm tomorrow?

    Thanks.

    1. Same in Marshfield. A small area around route 139 was out, including a busy intersection with the lights not working.

  24. 67 with wind whipping through house. Nearby Wunder just reported gust of 33. I wonder if stronger. We are on high ground as I can look out through trees and see tree tops below. Is there a way to find elevation my address?

    1. WAY stronger here, I can assure you! Way stronger!
      This is the strongest wind I have witnessed while living in this house
      since 1975!!!

  26. The Winds re ferocious!
    Gusting to 65 at Blue Hill. I think some of that made it here.
    I swear on a stack of bibles that it is gusting OVER 60 here. I was just out taking
    off what’s left of our tenants Storm Door. The wind ripped it apart. That took 1/2 hour holding the door with right hand and unscrewing what was left of screws securing
    door to frame. Bent the shit out of the closer! Damn. I have to get a new closer
    for sure and Most likely a new door. I don’t think I can bend it back to proper working
    shape. It’s an old door so replacement is probably best.

    It was NOT this windy in Hurricane Bob!

  27. And Sunday is looking extremely windy as well as the clipper passes and bombs out to our east. Only Sunday will not be nearly as pleasant as today with wind chills down into the single digits!

    Three wind advisory/warning events in a 6 day period is pretty impressive.

  28. 12z Euro has the bulk of the snow south of the Pike with the Sunday morning system…looks like enough to whiten the ground.

    Track for the Tuesday storm is about the same as 0z but the axis of heaviest precip appears to have shifted a bit south.

    1. This forecast is OK, but I think a little too widespread with it’s higher end amounts. Scale this back a bit and that’s what I’d be comfortable with at this stage.

    2. I should clarify that the GFS has similar snow totals through Tues night than the Euro but is more robust with the Sun AM system delivering a widespread 1-3″ and a bit less so with the Tuesday system.

  32. Tomorrow looks like another warm day. I’m seeing many backing away from the snow confidence from 2 days ago. Seems the closer we get to these potentials the less they become. This one looks no different.

    1. I think you’re misreading it. With maybe one or 2 exceptions, nobody was more confident before and less so now. And be careful if you’re comparing national outlets or AccuWeather to what local mets are saying. Apples & oranges.

      The threat of white stuff is very real. What we won’t see is a repeat of the biggies like 1982 or 1997. What we will see is likely flakes that have little or minor impact in most locations and briefly moderate impact in a few, depending on timing. We have 3 threats in the first 10 days of April. And again, reminder: Threats are not certainties. But the possibility is very legitimate. Trust someone with experience and no pressure from a “boss” telling you this.

    2. And unless I’m confusing things, I think the EURO and GFS have been unusually consistent with this Monday night – Tuesday am system. Track, strength and showing a few to many inches of snow. Very consistent for 3 days.

  33. Today was my Aunt’s wake and funeral. She basically outlived most people she knew so it was a very small service and funeral. The cemetery sits in a low spot in Woburn but is fairly open to the southwest so the wind gusts coming in there were pretty ferocious. Thankfully, it seemed to subside a bit at the brief graveside service, and then opened up big time just after we all entered our cars. Aunt Mary was a care giver, and she is still caring for us. 🙂

      1. Thank you. Aunt Mary is now reunited with her 2 sisters and 3 brothers (including my father) that have gone before her. There is one child left from that family – my Aunt Julia, who is 89.

      1. She was.

        Mary, Joseph, Agnes (Barbara), Ernest, Irene (Renie), John (my father), and Julia.

        Julia is the last one living.

        1. My parents are both sixth born of six and on my mom’s side is the same thing, where only one, my Aunt, remains.

    1. It always had that issue somewhat, but seems a little worse since upgrade. I sense an adjustment coming…

  35. I was about to mention that “third threat” for snow next week that TK alluded to. GFS has a cutter on Thursday and pops a coastal storm along the trailing cold front on Friday as the cold air floods in behind. It’s hard to imagine but at least parts of the area have a legitimate shot at three accumulating snow events here in the first full week of April.

  38. Many of the wonderful weather bloggers have different definition of snow than me. A “few flakes” won’t bother me in the least. When I hear snow is coming, to me that means shit I have to plow and move. Couple flakes that will be gone in a day is nothing. The wind is more of a problem for me than any snow flakes will be.

    1. I’ve been pretty sure from the start of this threat window that any interruption you have down there will be very short-lived. You need a 1982, 1987, or 1997 type event to really do anything that makes you change your plans for more than 1 day. Not happening this time, just some late flakes, maybe some accumulation some places. It’ll be gone quickly each time.

  41. A good bet right now flakes will fly first week of April. The question is does anything accumulate.

  42. Thanks everybody! We’ve lost several over the last few years in the family but they have all lived very long lives and for that we are very thankful.

    1. She always had a smile for everyone. She never married. The one she was about to get engaged to was tragically lost and she chose to remain single and loyal to her job and family. She lived in the same house for her entire life – 97 years. But it is what she wanted and she was very happy.

  44. Interesting stat I found for Hartford, CT area. To those who say it doesn’t snow in April these numbers say something different.
    Since 1905 when weather records started there has been 104 occurrences of measurable snow after April 1st. 43 times there has been 1 inch or more after April 1st.

  46. Current thoughts…

    Wind stays pretty strong tonight but no rain showers for quite a few hours, probably anything will be around after midnight.

    Friday will be rain-free more than wet.

    Saturday will see more rain than Friday, in terms of amount of time rain falls from the sky.

    Sunday’s snow is most likely in the pre-dawn to shortly-after-dawn time frame, and if it’s going to accumulate to any degree, the greatest chance is in northern MA and southern NH, but we have to watch one area southwest of Boston in the hills for some accumulation as well.

    The system for late Monday and early Tuesday will probably be just too far north for widespread accumulating snow, but certainly should be watched.

    The system that comes in Thursday may start as a mix but will likely be largely rain, which may hold off until late.

    Friday/Saturday of next week (8th/9th) present an interesting possibility that includes both rain and snow, and at some point lots of wind. It’s too far away to speculate much though.

    Even further away and less certain, but it may actually be quite mild for Red Sox opening day on April 11.

      1. The hilly terrain from near northern RI to northeastern CT and adjacent area of southern MA.

              1. Just possibilities at this point. That area is a wildcard. It may all be north of you.

  48. Tweet from meteorologist Fred Campagna
    Latest Euro ensemble offers less than 50% chance of 3″ of snow early next week in all of SNE.

    1. That I can generally agree with. I’m not thinking anyone gets big amounts. Things are too progressive for that, and as usual timing is everything, along with location!

    2. Well that dampens the snow lovers. Sounds like insignificant IMO but we continue to watch 🙂

      2. I’m not sure why you have to keep saying that. Nobody is “dampened”. They’re just following weather, the way they like to.

  49. Tk does any model take into effect how warm the ground is? Perfect example 2 weeks ago. Even with a day or 2 of below freezing the ground will not go below freezing. And is this why the 1-5 inches across the area melted in a day? Thank you

    1. I’m curious as to th answer also. My guess is the warm ground doesn’t have any bearing on the amount of snow that falls…just how long it hangs around. I’m thinking models don’t predict that

      1. I’m very curious because that night my brother said he had about a half inch in some scattered spots on grass, even though it got down in the upper 20’s that night, all the snow was gone that morning.

        1. It was gone everywhere in the morning. I had six inches and it was gone. But that wasn’t what I was curious about. You asked if the models took warm ground into consideration. It seems to me they cannot and that melting has no bearing on how much falls. As I recall it was also considerably warmer the days following. I could easily be incorrect.

          1. Agreed but if it’s in the mid to upper 20’s the snow should not melt, but it did. And the ground is warmer now than 2 weeks ago 🙂

            1. Mine didn’t melt till the next day and yes it will melt more on a warm ground. But it was melting like crazy on the roofs too. It is spring snow which makes it really interesting as you point out

  51. Track of the low pressure further north and you could clearly see that on that run with accumulating snow for Northern New England.

  52. Residents franklin st reading asked to lock doors while police search for carjacking suspect. Not sure anyone Reading on here. But close to your area TK.

  53. Sorry for your loss, TK, glad the services were nice for her.

    We very nearly made it to 70F here in Plymouth, NH today, even with very limited sunshine. It was breezy at times, but nothing like what was happening in eastern MA.

    Quite an active, fast moving weather pattern we’re in. Getting a taste of everything spring has to offer I guess. Warmth and wind today. Rain chances in the next couple days. Snow chances in the couple days after that. I don’t think too much will come of the snow, the Sunday event looks more interesting just because it’s such a potent piece of energy. Could be a few wild hours of squalls, howling winds, and plunging temperatures. The early week clipper likely ends up weak and north. Probably not much of a factor for anyone, even northern New England.

    The 12z Euro has a prodigious rain event towards the end of its run. 18z GFS hints at a similar scenario. Quite a ways off, but it seems plausible to me. After quite awhile of systems moving through at a breakneck pace, it looks like we’ll get a bit of a traffic jam (of the atmospheric variety) going around this time next week.

  54. The models don’t really take any ground temps into account. The forecast snow amounts are based on algorithms that do not include that information because ground temperatures are not included in model data. This is where adjustments need to be made by a professional meteorologist. I did that above, and explained why I thought paved surfaces would see less regardless of the amount of snow that fell.

    Of course, if a burst of heavy snow came through an area during darkness, then the pavement would get covered quickly and conditions would be dangerous for a short while. When it was cleared and/or daylight returned, it would improve rapidly.

  55. Very small low pressure but potent package of energy for Sunday AM. Mini-blizzard (not the true definition) possible for a relatively small area for a very short period of time.

  56. To address the point about air temp in 20s and snow on ground melting at night … that would come from heat contained in the ground radiating out. During the day it would be a combination of ground warmth and solar radiation.

  57. Low track will be key. Anywhere north of tracks for Sunday AM and Monday PM systems will snow. It will be cold enough, even to the south if either or both systems should stay south. When the mets started warning of the pattern that was missing in winter would show up after equinox, they knew what they were talking about.

  58. Still 59. Can’t hear wind…insulated houses with generator hookups are not my idea of a weather lovers dream…..but Wunder has it gusting into mid teens at the moment. Quieter than today. A good portion of framingham was out of power today.

  59. High Wind Watch up for all four southern counties in southern CT Saturday night into Sunday morning. I would not be surprised if more areas of SNE are under some sort of wind alert.
    From NWS in Taunton as the region is under a hazardous weather outlook
    LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING…A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY AND
    MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME ALONG WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSNOW. WHILE
    A MAJOR SNOWSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN A
    SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY OCCUR AND IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN
    ADDITION…A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
    THE SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WATCH
    MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT NEARS.

  64. Interesting write-up from NWS. They mention THUNDER SNOW for early Sunday
    morning and 50-60 mph winds!

    * PRECIPITATION – TWO POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENTS…1)LATE
    SAT NGT-EARLY SUN W/THUNDERSNOW POSSIBLE…2) MON/MON NIGHT

    SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING … IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC SHORT WAVE/PV
    ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW
    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
    REGION. NAM TRACKS CLIPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENG COAST
    WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER UKMET SUPPORTS THE NAM.
    NONETHELESS POTENT SYSTEM HERE WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT/TROP
    FOLD COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM TO
    8.5C/KM…COURTSEY OF ARCTIC SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY -37C AIR AT
    H5! THAT/S ONLY -3 SD COLDER THAN NORMAL! SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE
    COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN THE FORM OF
    THUNDERSNOW. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SHOWERS THEN TRANSITION TO
    SNOW. MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF BUT OVERALL A VERY
    PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SO PRECIP DURATION WILL BE SHORT AND THIS WILL
    LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER WILD CARD HERE IS THUNDERSNOW
    POTENTIAL WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN A VERY SHORT
    TIME PERIOD. OTHER CONCERN IS THE RISK OF STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING
    WINDS SUN MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE. MODELS SHOWING A
    STRONG PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET AS THIS CLIPPER LOW CROSSES AND EXITS
    THE AREA AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A
    BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE!

    SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT … DRYING TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
    DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE
    REGION ON BLUSTERY NW WINDS. WHILE AIR TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
    THE U30S AND L40S FOR HIGHS…NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH WILL
    PROVIDE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S! NOT VERY APRIL-LIKE.

    MONDAY … ALL MODEL GUID CONTINUES TO TRACK A FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH OF
    NEW ENG. STILL SOME SPREAD ON EXACT TRACK WHICH IMPACTS THERMAL
    FIELDS AND RESULTING RAIN/SNOW LINE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SNOW
    ACCUMS. STILL 3+ DAYS AWAY SO HAVE TO PLAY THIS PROBABILISTIC INSTEAD
    OF DETERMINISTIC. A MODEL BLEND SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBS OF PRECIP ALL
    SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
    ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. NONETHELESS A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
    POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

  65. The Saturday night Sunday morning time frame to me looks more interesting than the Monday pm – night time frame. Even if the snow part doesn’t materialize the wind gusts will be on the strong side.

  67. If you get thunder snow that snow will cone down quite hard and you could easily get accumulating snow.

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