Monday Forecast

117 Comments

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)…
Boston Marathon Forecast: As the various races begin, temperature ranged from the upper 30s to upper 40s along the course early, coolest in the lower interior areas, but will rise fairly rapidly through the 50s, reaching highs in the 60s along most of the course with a near 70 top reading possible. As the race goes on, a north wind of 5 to 15 MPH will turn to the east and the temperature will start to fall closer to Boston into the upper to middle 50s. Sunshine will be dominant overall but as the afternoon progresses and the later runners arrive there will be more cloudiness.
The weather today is still be influenced by high pressure trying to hang on but a front pressing southward will be bringing the cloudiness later in the day. The initial wind shift will be due to a sea breeze and not the actual front, which will pass by tonight. A wave of low pressure along it will enhance moisture for a period of rain mainly in the overnight and early morning hours. A clearing trend will begin after a cloudy and damp start on Tuesday, but it will also be on the cool side and turning windy. High pressure builds in with fair and cool weather Wednesday along with a gusty breeze, then this high sinks to the south and a warm up arrives for Thursday. By Friday, a front approaching from the west will bring some rain showers to the area but it will still be quite mild.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s briefly at the coast, middle 60s to lower 70s interior, but cooling down during midday and afternoon especially closer to the coast. Wind N to NE trending more NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely late. Lows in the 40s. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers early. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)…
Indications are for a return to a more progressive pattern which means unsettled weather to start the weekend April 23 should give way to fair weather to end it April 24. April 25-27 look mainly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)…
Mainly dry weather for the last few days of April with temperatures fairly close to normal overall. Milder and possibly wet by the end of the period.

117 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Temperature is rocketing this morning. 61 Degrees here as of 8:56 AM.

    How high will it go before sea breeze kicks in.

    I am guessing at least 70. 😀

      1. too low. 61.7 already. remember I am 5 or 6 miles from the
        water with a NE wind. Make it due East and it’s closer to 10 miles.
        Make it SE and it is 20 miles.
        😀

          1. 51 here in Woburn. You have some kind of massive head start on my area for some reason, which is likely that your part of the atmosphere turned over more quickly than mine.

    2. Surface map. Not much of a gradient. Won’t be long before there is a sea breeze.
      And look at that from lurking to the North. That surely will come crashing down
      the coast later on. 😀

      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

      Boston Buoy water temperature is 43.9 as of 7:50 this morning. How high
      can we get it today? 45? 46? depends on sunshine.

    1. Classic example of what I mentioned: Getting rid of a shallow cold layer. That large temp drop is certainly not from advection of warm air from a gradient wind. 🙂

  6. That kind of temp jump is not too unusual in the case of having a very shallow layer of cool air right at the ground, as we did overnight and early morning. It takes very little solar heating to turn the air over just enough, but once it turns over, the rise slows down without much gradient to advect more warmth in. Wind will be onshore very soon near the coast which will put a stop to the rise there by late morning.

  8. Thanks TK.
    Thank you mother nature for giving me a beautiful day weather wise on my birthday.
    Two weeks ago today I was shoveling snow and now two weeks later its gorgeous.

  9. A light west wind up in Portland Maine went calm the last couple hours and is now northeast 5-10 MPH. They are probably near their high temp for the day now.

  10. JP Dave I can picture you starting at the thermometer counting every tenth of a degree. 😉

  15. Don’t know what’s up with Logan, but Beverly is in with 64 and wind North
    at 10 gusting to 19.

  19. Thank you everyone for the birthday wishes.
    Yes Vicki I am 32 today.
    Living here I have seen a lot of different types of weather. First big weather event in my life was Hurricane Gloria although I don’t remember it being a year old, July 10, 1989 with the tornado outbreak and F1 taking down the tree in front lawn but no damage to the house, Super Storm March 1993 the winter of 95-96 including Blizzard of 96 that winter April Fools storm 1997 Presidents Day storm 2003, that unbelievable six week stretch during winter 2009-10 where a record amount of 54.3 inches fell that January, Irene in August 2011, October snow storm in 2011 Sandy in 2012 blizzard of 2013 coldest February 2015 on record and this February when we had a severe weather outbreak. First time in my life one occurred in winter and first ever severe thunderstorm watch posted for CT in the winter.

    1. Happy Birthday JJ.

      Too many weather events to list, but I’ll try a few.
      I remember the day of the Worcester Tornado. I was living in Norwood at the time and remember some debris coming down out of the sky, like pieces of
      roof shingles.

      I remember Hurricane Carol, Edna and Diane in the 50s. Carol blew over the steeple of our church, St. Catherine’s.

      Then there was Hurricane Donna in 1960. What a mess that left behind.
      then 3 big snowstorms, Dec 60, Jan 61 and Feb 61.

      Then 2 biggies 1969.

      Then blizzard of 78.

      And last Winter.

      and oh yea, I witnessed a tornado in the 70s, It was mostly in Brookline but
      caught a bit of Newton.

    2. Circa 1975: On vacation in VT with my family and a severe thunderstorm hit Montpelier at night as we were visiting various places in the city. This storm had nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning during its peak including incredible wind gusts and was followed up by additional storms after we got back to the motel. I remember hiding under a blanket in the car for fear but then needing to look as well for fascination. My 8 year old brain made note of the shape of Abe Lincoln in scud clouds under the main storm, silhouetted by lightning behind it. The next morning when we got up, all of the outside furniture at the motel that had surrounded the pool area was now IN the pool.

      August 9 1976: The excitement of Hurricane Belle coming up the coast. The storm ended up being much weaker than expected and was just a windy rainstorm, but it helped amplify my interest in weather.

      May 9-10 1977: Half a foot of mashed potato snow. Considerable tree damage as trees had leafed out earlier than normal due to previous warmth.

      January 1978: My first year of recording observations started with a wild month that included a 5-inch snowfall on Monday January 2, a wild windy rainstorm on Monday January 9, a moisture-loaded storm Wednesday January 11 that dumped several inches of snow/sleet followed by a change to rain and lots of slush, a major snowstorm of about 13 inches on Friday January 13, the “forgotten blizzard” of 20-25 inches on Friday January 20 in which Boston set a record for 21 inches of snow in 12 hours, the wash-away rainstorm with high winds and temps in the 60s on Thursday January 26 that took away virtually all of the snow and prevented an insane snowcover had it remained leading to…

      February 6-7 1978: Spoke for itself and remains the winter storm of all time for me.

      June 19 1978: A severe thunderstorm in Woburn that to this date is one of the worst I have seen in terms of wind, torrential rain, scary looking clouds, and lightning.

      October 10 1979: Record early snowstorm of 4-6 inches with much tree damage as leaves were still on.

      Summer 1980: Very hot.

      April 6 1982: Powder blizzard of 16 inches, lots of blowing and drifting, with temps in the 20s. Next day in the teens with powerful winds and blowing snow. January in April.

      Summer 1983: Very hot.

      March 29 1984: Snow bomb storm with a foot of snow and cloud-to-ground lightning, along with powerful east northeast winds that held me up when I leaned into them.

      September 27 1985: Hurricane Gloria during my freshman year at U Lowell.

      August 7-9 1986: New England tornado outbreak. This outbreak included a tornado in Bedford MA on August 7. I have a picture of the wall cloud taken as the storm was over Wilmington MA, taken from 128/95 in Woburn. I was at the movie theater next to the highway at the time the wall cloud moved left to right just a few miles north of the theater.

      April 28-29 1987: 10.5 inches of very wet snow, most of it falling at night and most of it melting in just a few hours on April 29.

      Summer 1988: Very hot much of the time from July 4 through August 15.

      August 19 1991: Hurricane Bob.

      May 9-22 1992: My chase trip to Oklahoma. A great experience. Didn’t see any tornadoes but saw some great storms. The highlight may have to be when we were sitting in a gas station in Seminole OK one evening when a flanking line from a storm to our east produced a bolt of lightning that struck the telephone pole next to the station (about 50 feet away from the car). My chase partner, who was outside, probably did a standing long jump of 4 or 5 feet followed by a notable expletive. We ended up at the station for a while because the bolt fried the electronics of the pumps. All the numbers were scrambled and it took a while to get things sorted out so we could fill, pay, and get out out of there. Thankfully no more really close strikes while we were there.

      March 13 1993: Superstorm. A solid foot of snow, ended as rain as the low came right overhead with super low pressure of about 28.50 inches. Lots of wind and cold under a middle overcast the next day with snow frozen like cement making it look like the tundra.

      May 21 1996: Chased a thunderstorm passing south of Boston, and thankfully got held up in traffic as we watched the back end of the storm go nuts with lightning. The traffic tie up prevented us from being right under this storm when it produced a 104 MPH downburst in Brockton/Whitman. To this day, it is the most damage I have witnessed in person from weather. Neighborhoods were a mess, some with nearly every tree down, including trees several feet wide at the base being snapped off about 10 to 20 feet above the ground.

      May 18 2002: 1/2 inch of snow/sleet, my latest measurable frozen precipitation during my time of observing in Woburn MA.

      Winter 2014-2015…

      There are other events during the last 14 years as well but the ones listed up to here are a great representation, if not an over-comprehensive list. 😉

  22. Finally got an observation at Logan.
    EAST wind has arrived! At 11AM Logan 62 with Wind East at 13.8 mph!

    East wind has reached here. Temp falling back a tad
    Was up to 68.9, now down to 68.4 and dropping off steadily.

  23. A perfectly “bad” setup in the Houston TX area today with 20+ inches of rain as Gulf of Mexico moisture lifts over a nearly stationary boundary. Major flooding in that area.

      1. Being next to that bathtub puts that area in a very vulnerable position. This is being shown as we speak.

  24. Temp jumped up nearly 20 degrees and touched 70 here in Woburn. East wind has just arrived here and expect a slow and steady drop-off now.

  27. Good noon to you all!
    Happy Patriot’s Day and Marathon Monday!

    Just finished the Marathon in PR time…
    HaHaHa…I get cramps just putting on my running shoes these days and takes me two hours just to find them!

    I did walk the 26.2-mile marathon route one time for Jimmy Fund in memory of one of my students who passed because of bone cancer.

    72 degrees right now on the Westside of Taunton.

    Noticed that we are now once again in a rainfall deficit for the year (-0.08) and -0.91 since March 1. Sun sets tonight at 7:30!!!!!

    Thanks for the walk down weather memory lane, TK…Thanks for this fun weather blog, too.

    Red Sox 1, Blue Jays 0, Top 3

    Enjoy one of the best days in Massachusetts!

    1. Thank you AND you’re welcome!

      Go Sox! A friend and fellow forecaster is at the game. He has been to every Patriots Day Red Sox game since 1987.

  28. Announcers said the cool wind as the runners turn corner in newton may create problems. One said 1976 when she ran was hottest marathon ever And wind turned cold as they turned corner and there was much cramping.

  29. The upper level low pressure that was responsible for the foot of snow in Denver and the 30 to 50 inch snow totals in the foothills has broad and fairly significant and is also playing a significant role in the Houston area flooding today. As the pattern becomes a little less blocked up the next few days, this low will weaken, open up, and lift out of the Rockies/Plains and it will be the system responsible for our mild rain showers this coming Friday and possible wet start to the weekend early Saturday.

    1. Well, it was expected. 😀

      Should be below 60 there before too long. My friend and I forecast 60 to upper 50s at the finish line by the time to elite runners were arriving.

      1. 62.1 and still crashing! Disgusting and I know it was expected.
        Still don’t like it one bit. How many days in a row with a freaken
        East wind? TOO MANY, that’s the answer.

        Boston SUCKS in the Spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

        1. Love that east wind. 😀
          But I think Charlie would agree with you here. 😉

          I just noticed a local lady from Cambridge crossing the finish line only 20+ minutes behind the winner. That’s pretty impressive.

  32. Looks like a pretty chilly weekend coming up, but not from ocean cooling, but Canadian cooling. Lots of cold air up there and a piece gets pulled into the region behind Friday’s frontal system.

  33. Per interviews the tourists are loving Boston, not just the marathon, but the city and its people. Great city indeed, no matter the weather, which is really not bad at all today and way nicer than last Patriots Day. 😉

  34. I think, in our celebration of the worlds oldest annual marathon, we sometimes forget that many are also visiting for the annual celebrations and reenactments in Lexington and Concord as well as other locations where our country began nearly two and a half centuries ago. It truly is quite a special day in our city and our state.

  35. Facuckta East Wind. TK you can have it. I have been patient with it, but today has
    sent me over the top!!!!

    Down to 59.5 here and still dropping. DISGUSTING!)@#*!()@&#$)*(!&@#*&!*@#&

    1. Thanks! I’ll take it! Lots of sunshine, buds starting to turn more and more green. Cherry blossoms about to burst out. Spring in eastern New England. 😀

      Last Patriots Day: Wet and 40s. Which would you rather have? I know your answer: “neither!” 😀

  36. Can you imagine that women were not allowed to run in race until 1972…..until that was believed women were incapable of running more than 1.5 miles…..yep. There is a decimal place there

  38. I think, and CPC agrees, we’ll be drier than normal for the next 15 days, and also in the cool corner of the country.

    1. Typical spring weather. Maybe we will appreciate these days when we are sweating our tails off in July.

    1. He dominated today. It was lack of offense and bad relief, and probably a bad decision to pull him out of the game, that cost them.

      1. Yes he showed flashed of what if. Don’t get used to that. Expect more of his previous outings.

        1. I don’t expect consistent greatness from him. I think he’s so-so. It’s just a shame today he had the good outing with no support. Ah well!

  43. Out in westwood. Milder here than at home. Was 57.6 at home at 3:30. Now 65 out here. A bit better.

  44. Charlotte NC had a low of 38 and reversed it for a high of 83 today. Tied for the largest diurnal observed at that location.

  45. Took a ride to Pembroke about 2:30pm, which is several miles inland from the ocean’s edge and I found a noticeable difference in the temperature.

    The last many days of sunshine have been awesome and it’s been so nice to get outside !!

    1. Agree.

      In summer when we have been lucky enough to be at Humarock, we’ve often had lovely temps in the 80s and only as far in as Roche Bros it would be into 90s. I like your natural AC in summer !!

  48. In losing the afternoon’s sun strength and some of the warmth just inland, it’s helped to relax the seabreeze. The wind is relatively calm here.

    Should be another surge of N and NE winds with the front and small scale low later on tonight. Kind of looks like rain chances are dwindling though based on the simulated radars I saw on the TV weathercasts this evening.

  49. We hit 80 here in Manchester CT today – still warm with temps in the 70’s.

    Happy Birthday JJ! My 40th is tomorrow – I’ll be blowing up the black balloons tonight!

  52. Last week of April look fairly chilly. I hope TK is right and we get a summer. Long way to go, but I’m impatient for some sustained warmth.

  55. Thanks Mark.
    Happy birthday to you tomorrow. Hopefully will see you here on the blog this summer when were tracking thunderstorms. If I remember correctly your an Islanders fan and you must be happy after that overtime when last night.

    1. Yes, that was an awesome comeback win last night. Very nerve wracking. They have not advanced past the first round in the playoffs since 1993 so I am hoping this may be their year!

    2. Yes, I plan to be on here a bit more this summer. Hopefully there will be a few good thunderstorm days and a tropical system or two to track and tide me over to the Winter Solstice 🙂

  56. 2015-16 Snowfall Totals:

    Boston = 36.1″

    Albany NY = 16.9″
    Concord NH = 29.7″
    Burlington VT = 32.2″

    Amazing that Boston beat out our neighbors to the north in an El Niño winter no less and that Albany total is just “totally” crazy. I suspect that Albany will make up for it big time next winter. No way they have below normal snowfall two years in a row.

  57. Happy Birthday Jimmy and Mark! 🙂

    You two make me feel old and yet I am still aways off until retirement. 😉

  58. Thanks Philip.
    Mark as a Rangers fan I would rather have faced Florida than Pittsburgh in the first round. If you your team wins Wednesday night and go up three games to one I believe people won’t be saying the Islanders have not won a playoff series since 1993.

    1. I hope you’re right. The Islanders basically threw the last two games of the regular season to avoid playing Pittsburgh in the first round. They rested half their regulars and threw in all the AHL’ers. Hopefully it doesn’t backfire on them.

      As an Islanders fan, I have to admit that I hate the Rangers (sorry!). But part of me wants both teams to advance and meet in the conference finals. That would be a heck of a series!

  61. I usually catch up on the whole day late at night and reply to threads from 11 am at 11 pm then am surprised they are not noticed! So in response to the call to walk down wild weather memory lane I would have to add the following with no exact dates – or even exact years – although they’re pretty recent – but I have a hunch most of you could pinpoint the date if not the exact time for me upon request — at least those of you still up this late!

    1. Non-mass – spent time in Kansas City on a 6 week work trip sometime in either fall 1998 or spring 99 – a ton of tornadoes and tornado warnings during the period I was there. I was on the 15th floor of an almost all glass Marriott tower – room had glass on 3 sides -?listening to warnings to get away from Windows and high buildings as I watched a funnel cloud form in the distance one day figuring I was basically screwed if it headed my way.

    2. That storm in the winter of 2008-2009 I believe (might have been the year after though) that caught pm commuters completely off guard. It took me almost 5 hours to get home to Acton from Mall rd in Burlington. Total mess.

    3. I know the date of this from my FB account – Jan 6, 2014 – when I changed in one day from a t-shirt to a sweater to a windbreaker to a fleece to a wool coat to a down coat in the same day. It was like hosting the Oscars.

    4. Last winter 2015-2016 – Of course my first winter back commuting to Boston in over a decade. Inactually saw someone punch someone else in the face when he tried to steal his space squeezed in on the orange line – guy got out to let people squeeze off – some other guy tried to sneak past him as every train was full – first guy grabbed him by the collar, yanked him back and clocked him dead in the face. I thought to myself – welcome back to the big city Winnie the Pooh!

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