Thursday Forecast

56 Comments

4:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)…
Disturbance from the west brings cold air aloft and an unstable atmosphere today while a sea breeze tries to keep coastal areas stable. This will allow showers, possibly with small hail and a risk of thunder, to pop up inland during midday and afternoon, then eventually migrate toward coastal areas as the sea breeze dies off late in the day. The showers will be scattered in nature, leaving some areas dry. The small hail will be isolated in the strongest showers. A few showers may also produce gusty wind. High pressure takes over for Friday which will be a magnificent spring day. The high tries to hold on into Saturday, which will be a generally nice day – just turning out less sunny than Friday as low pressure to the south starts spreading cloudiness in. It appears this low will get close enough to bring some wet weather into the region for Sunday, but should move away for a break on Monday.
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers developing midday and especially afternoon, particularly inland locations where some showers may produce small hail and possibly some thunder. A few showers reaching coastal areas at the end of the day. Highs in the 60s except cooling back to upper 50s coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers evening. Showers and clouds vanish overnight. Lows upper middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind light variable becoming N.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s, some upper 60s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH but a few coastal sea breezes possible.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except 60s coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the lower to middle 50s. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)…
A cut off low pressure area drifts through the region Tuesday with wet weather, but departs Wednesday with fair and warmer conditions, which will likely last for the remainder of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)…
A weakening front in the vicinity may produce a few showers and thunderstorms May 29-30 (the Sunday and Monday of Memorial Day Weekend). Fair weather with a cooling trend May 31-June 2.

56 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. A sign that it will turn warmer late next week 6z GFS shows enough instability for thunderstorm development Thurs through Sat.

  5. Pattern transition is going to look neat on a loop of the 500mb chart, but if you loop today’s 06z GFS operation and ensemble run and kind of mix the 2, you get a good idea of what it will look like.

    Yes there will be a short cool-down in early June. Cool-downs can be and will be part of the overall warm pattern.

  7. Tk I know I asked the question yesterday but could I again get your best forecast for out door possibly on Sunday .I have 4 pending jobs and trying to figure it out . Next weekend is going to screw me up but I guess I need a break anyways . Thanks pal.

    1. Your best hope is that the biggest thrust of rain is overnight and we get a break Sunday. 50/50 chance as I see it now.

  11. Another explanation from this tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan on why thunderstorms are possible today
    Unusually cold air in mid levels of the atmosphere will lead to instability later today. Scattered storms likely

    1. So far. In think wave 1 is progressive and then we cut the second one off and bring it in Tuesday. That should, in theory, leave Monday rain-free.

      1. lol. I’m thinking of Monday and Tuesday working the business . Can’t have rain.

  13. I’m stubborn. I think I’ve been carrying a chance of rain for May 24 since it was day 15. 😉

    1. Gee – not an ounce of stubborn in me 😈

      That said…is it really stubborn or knowledge?

      1. In this case it was confidence in prediction of the evolution of the pattern. 🙂 But I’m not correct until that day arrives and there is some rain.

  14. Morley Safer passed away. I can’t imagine many who don’t think of him when they hear 60 minutes. So very sad.

    1. I hope he was well enough Sunday night to take in the 60 minutes episode that honored his retirement and lengthy tenure on the show.

  17. New GFS only showing instability for next Thursday. Previous run had instability Thurs through Sunday.
    Week away and to me this is similar to a weather model showing widespread double digit snowfall amounts this far out. GFS has been showing instability west of us in this time period now a couple runs in a row instability is now over SNE.
    CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016051912&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=177
    LIFT
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016051912&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=177

  18. Models continue to slowly figure out what will be taking place as the pattern changes. It still takes the GFS a little longer than the ECMWF, but they are a little closer now than before the most recent upgrade. GFS not quite there yet…

  19. Every once in a while I look at the CMC model just to remind myself how much it SUCKS.

  20. Showers seem to die around 495.

    Was in Weymouth and now home. Still 64.4 here. Not very supportive of showers.

    Personally, I highly doubt any make it here. We shall see. 😀

    1. They are splitting north and south of me. The clouds in those directions are awesome but nothing here.

      1. I have a little league game at 5:30, don’t see much of anything really to cancel it.

        1. I suspect it would be too much to expect that little area over brimfield would make it this far

  21. WeatherWx….I read your links at a high level but that seemed to give me a good understanding. Both are interesting. The observations in the second link are particularly interesting and worrisome.

    Thank you. I saved both to a weather folder I have

    1. Glad it helped out! Maybe TK can chime in as well, it’s a pretty tricky science and others have different ideas, but to me a significant slowdown seems likely.

      1. The change in the number of chimneys under the arctic ice shelf alone was concerning

        Thanks again!!

  22. Have not seen one drop of rain so far today. It got cloudy a few times but no rain. Sun is back out now.

  24. As Mr. Seabreeze gives up, the showers will finally push eastward, but at the same time they will be dissipating. No surprises today.

    No surprises showing up on medium range guidance.

    I’m now reading CPC’s discussion on the weeks and months ahead…

    1. No big surprises there either. They are forecasting too much rain for the summer, otherwise I agree. Above normal temps summer through mid autumn, then a flip to colder for late autumn and winter 2016-2017. Below normal precipitation throughout and well into 2017.

      I don’t really have enough confidence to say what I think will happen once we get to summer 2017 but they have it hot again, but this time wetter than average. If that is right, that would be the breaking of the drought.

  26. 18z GFS showing more instability next Friday than next Thursday. Week a way and a lot change but if we get a trigger there is enough instability for thunderstorm development.

  27. Some cells around. A bit of thunder in distance. .29 rain. Up from .04 earlier so solid one quarter with this go round

    1. I think a few showers must have made it to Marshfield, as everything was fairly wet this morning. Looked like something more than dew.

  28. Happy Birthday TK !

    TGIF !!

    Great weather start to the day.

    00z GFS having fun with something emerging out of the south Atlantic in the long range. Perhaps some tropical characteristics. Of course, it probably will vanish on the 12z run. 🙂

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