Friday Forecast

103 Comments

1:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)…
High pressure will dominate through at least Sunday and possibly Monday, as low pressure gets pushed well to the south and cuts off, then makes an attempted and probably failed run northward late in the period. It looks like our only rain threat during this 5-day period will be from a cold front moving into the region on Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the lower to middle 70s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the upper 40s interior valleys to upper 50s shorelines and urban areas. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s but cooling down at the coast during the afternoon. Wind light N to E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the lower 50s interior to upper 50s coast. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 70s South Coast and Cape Cod to the 80s elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)…
Fair and mild June 22. The next disturbance brings a shower threat later June 23 into June 24 with a cooling trend. Fair with a warming trend June 25-26.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Risk of a few showers/thunderstorms early in the period then trending drier again. Temperatures near to above normal.

103 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks rather cool today. We shall see.
    East wind was blowing the curtains straight in already last night.

    I can imagine during the day today.

    re: Tuesday
    Unless something changes in a hurry, not a whole lot in the way of thunderstorms/showers. A few harmless little showers is all at this time.

    No thunderstorm parameters to speak of. A bit up North, NOTHING here.

    1. On the other hand, NWS still pitching thunderstorms

      Tue and Tue night…
      Cold frontal approach. Airmass ahead shows signs of convective
      potential with Ensemble probs suggesting chance for +1000j/kg
      rather high during the typical afternoon hours. PWATs near 1.5
      inches (about 1 std deviation above normal) along with decent
      lapse rates between 6.0C/km and 7.0C/km all support convective
      chances. Timing will be key, if the front (or hinted pre-frontal
      trof) arrives by afternoon, peak of this instability and 30+ 0-3km
      shear could be realized, suggesting strong-severe storms are
      possible. However, with a delayed passage, loss of diurnal heating
      would suggest more shra or weaker storms. Still time to process,
      but a period to watch.

      so far, I don’t see it.

  4. Cooler today as advertised.

    NWS’s current thoughts on Tuesday are decent pre-analysis. Potential will be there. But again, potential is not always realized. Timing will be key and we won’t be able to nail that down for a couple days.

    1. Congrats Tom! 🙂

      Boston still has another week to go (23-24). I wonder if they are the very last in the state to close for the year?

    2. Great news, Tom. It is a day to celebrate!! Hope your summer is wonderful.

      Sutton is out next Tuesday. Unfortunately, for my oldest grand, he started well before Labor Day in Framingham so has about 185 days. Fortunately, also for him, he loves school so looks forward to each day!

  6. Thank you TK

    Lovely morning. I have the day off and am enjoying coffee on the deck. The birds are singing. The dragon flies are patrolling their areas in search of mosquitoes. The hummingbird has visited twice. The clouds are dotting an almost ice blue sky. What a beautiful world we live in.

  7. Thanks TK.
    An air mass that is certainly conducive for thunderstorm development will be in place for Tuesday. Question as always does the front coming through at peak time so we realize the potential or is it delayed and we just get garden variety activity.

    1. What do you think? Unless things change (and they can), this ain’t gonna
      amount to nothing. Bad English is purposeful. 😀

  9. I am not impressed with the thunderstorm potential at the moment. There was one aggressive run and since it was the 18z GFS on Wednesday I didn’t put too much stock in it. Right now on Friday morning I would say isolated strong storms over the interior.

  10. That requirement for 180 days is a bit misleading.
    The law as written has some ambiguities.
    The first section has a requirement for 185 days, the in the very next sentence it says 180. The 185 is built in snow days actually. All it really says is that the district must have 180 days on the CALENDER. The real number is hours of instruction. For elementary school, its 900 hours of actual instruction in core subjects. The 900 hours doesn’t include recess, lunch, any study hall, etc etc. So for 900 hours of instruction, that a 5 hour day. Obviously the day is longer to account for the above stuff. My kids go to private school, (elementary) and our school day runs 8:30 to 3:00, for a 6.5 hour day. So, when its all boiled down, we hit 900 hours around the 164th day. The reality is the 180 days is kinda bogus. That’s the primary reason the parish priest just gets rid of the snow days.
    For secondary schools, it’s 990 hours of instruction. So at 180 days, that’s 5.5 hours of instruction per day. Easily done for high school kids in 180 OR LESS if the school day runs 6.5 hours.
    Most states have similar rules. Generally it’s between 5 and 6 hours per day of instruction over 165 to 185 days. The days are not as important as the hours/minutes of instruction in the way the laws are written.
    BTW, I’m on the school board so I’m pretty well versed in the laws and requirements.
    Sorry not weather related but I thought maybe some might be interested.

    1. Thanks, Blackstone. It is all ridiculous to me. MA has one of the higher educational hour requirements if I am not mistaken.

      One of best systems in the world has about 620 hours. We have so so so much to learn.

  11. The only semi detail we can speculate on 4 days out is that it still looks like a cold front triggering the storm risk, and that typically this setup would lead to linear convection overall, whether solid, broken, scattered .. weak moderate or strong.. give us 2 more days.

  12. It also looks like the air mass ahead of the front will be unstable and thunderstorms love that kind of air mass.

  13. Happy Bunker Hill Day.

    I try to read the letter from Abigail Adams to John each Bunker Hill Day. (It was of course written on another very important date in history but more on that later.)

    http://ic.galegroup.com/ic/uhic/PrimarySourcesDetailsPage/DocumentToolsPortletWindow?displayGroupName=PrimarySources&u=prof_t&u=prof_t&jsid=7d1964b8711c97a7a76e8510e93d6b00&p=UHIC%3AWHIC&action=2&catId=&documentId=GALE%7CVPBQZO735161284&zid=4512dd4a0348a0208049c50c949124f3

  14. I believe that front that people are talking for Tuesday will move through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

  15. Interesting….
    12Z NAM is out, and as per usual, it looks to cook things a bit.
    Even so, here’s a look up stream from us for Monday evening.
    Will these parameters translate to our area for Tuesday? Likely not, but we shall see.

    Significant tornado parameter

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2016061712&fh=84&r=ca_e&dpdt=

    EHI 0-3km

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016061706/084/ehi03.ca_e.png

    Cape and winds at Surface, 850mb and 500 Mb

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016061706/084/crossover.ca_e.png

    So, it needs to be watched “just” in case.

  16. You could clearly see where the front is from those links. Now will it come across during peak heating and how much instability will be in place?

  17. For the record…I like Barry Manilow. Greatest hits CD in car today. Wanna go for a ride JP Dave? 😀

    2. Did he have any great hits? 😀 :D: D
      None that I recall. 😀 😀 😀

      Just having fun. Enjoy.

      You probably wouldn’t like many of the artists I enjoy, so we’re even.
      Although you do like some.

  19. Thank you, TK. It’s beautiful outside.

    Brief digression for those of you who may be interested. We in this great nation of ours can learn a bit about civil political discourse from our British friends. Labour MP Jo Cox was murdered yesterday while serving her constituents, doing what is called “constituency surgery” or face-to-face meetings with members of the public and locan councilmen. The way in which Prime Minister David Cameron and the Labour Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn – who could not be at more opposite ends of the political spectrum – paid tribute to Jo Cox is moving, but also a lesson for all of us. I’ve posted a link to their tribute below. Politicians of all stripes in the U.S. – left and right – tend to politicize everything, including tragedies. The left blames the right. The right blames the left. It’s as if common ground is not even sought. Instead, it’s about scoring political points, or being vindicated. This saddens me deeply as I believe it ultimately undermines our democracy and pits us against each other. For decades we’ve been unraveling as a democracy. And so we do not reach common ground on issues that matter to us as constituents, such as climate change, gun control, manufacturing jobs, trade, and immigration, among others. In my opinion, we have ourselves to blame as our version of democracy has morphed into a rhetorical battle without substance, with entertainment and ratings ranking higher in many people’s minds than the issues at hand.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-36560895

    2. Joshua, while I had seen this link, I feel Americans should hear your words every morning of every day. I had the sense that was what Tom was saying last week although I do not want to put words where words do not belong. We need to work together because you are correct about our democracy (if it is even a democracy any more) is unraveling.

      It is funny that JPD has said he would vote for you for president. And it is funny that most here applaud your comments. As I’ve said, if Mac were here, he’d say nearly the same thing word for word. What is also funny is that you both have, as I said previously, perspectives that are influenced by other governments and approaches from outside of the United States. I get frustrated because we tend to look at the small picture. I can do that very well on my own and have to often catch myself. Perhaps, it is that you see a larger picture.

      Just thinking out loud but I do greatly appreciate your comments.

  21. 12Z GFS is non-existent for Tuesday, save a for parts of Maine.

    On the other hand, looks juicy for 7/1, which is what 2+ weeks away.
    That and a $5 bill will get you a cup of coffee. Fat chance of that verifying.

    1. Another well written piece by Eric.

      In the last 4 days, most lawns have become very stressed, looking something like you’d see in July.

      I believe this is increasing the odds at taking a run at 100F sometime in July. Under a strong 500 mb ridge, I think the ground dryness may turn what should be a 95F or 96F based on 850 mb temps into a 98F to 100F reading.

      1. I am contimplating shutoff the sprinkler system now and saving a $1000. Maybe I will water one day but that might not even be enough.

              1. My god! $1000?? What are your water rates and how often do you water and for how long? I water every other day, about 15 minutes per zone, 7 zones, from mid April to mid October and my bill is about $450 total.

    2. Thank you, JPD. And Tom the lawns are looking stressed. Even watering every other day (said that yesterday) ours is stressed. It is dry dirt by mid day. We have not had time to do a lot of planting and I’m wondering if it is something we should skip and just stick to containers.

      1. I put about an inch down per week, and mine looks like a golf course. But I put a load of nitrogen on it and some iron.

  24. Just had a chance to review the 12Z EURO.

    It has considerably more instability for Tuesday evening than the GFS that
    is for sure. And has the front approaching earlier than the GFS, but perhaps not
    perfect timing for T-storms, but a much better chance than the GFS shows.

    Some parameters are juicy, while others or so so or very low.

    So, I guess we still have to wait and watch.

    One thing still looks to be there and that is shear. IF we were to get robust convection,
    there is much turning of the winds with height. Almost 180 degrees from the surface
    to 850MB. (SW at surface to NW at 850 MB or thereabouts) We “could” get some
    rotators, again IF we strong enough convection.

  25. Will definitely be watching Tuesday as that seems to be the only day next week with that could feature a little weather action.

  26. JP Dave… Toss your top 10 favorite music artists at me and we’ll see where they fall in my book.

    My musical tastes are very, very diverse, much moreso than average.

    1. Of that I have become aware. I know your tastes are diverse, as diverse as
      mine are narrow.

      But I’ll play along. I am having a miserable Friday and can’t work anymore.
      I’ve had it! Going out for dinner really soon, the sooner the better.

      This is my best shot: (Reserve the right to change order around, but this
      is a good start)

      1. Rolling Stones *
      2. Social Distortion *
      3. Fleetwood Mac *
      4. REM
      5. Grateful Dead
      6. Queen
      7. Eric Clapton
      8. Dave Edmunds
      9. Killers *
      10. Frank Turner

      * = I have seen in concert

      I had trouble with that list as my brain is MUSH right now.
      I’d do better with individual tunes. But this list isn’t too bad.
      I’ll probably think of some band or 2 that “Should” be there and perhaps remove 1 or and/or adjust order. But you can get an idea.

      Let’s see how many of the 10 you like.

      😀

      1. 1. Love the Stones. Classic. Longevity. Big place in rock n’ roll history.

        2. Not as familiar as I should be but what I have heard I have liked.

        3. In my top 30, and trust me that’s very high up on my list which is in the 100s.

        4. Like REM a lot. Distinctive sound.

        5. Not my favorite, but I don’t hate them.

        6. Love.

        7. Love. Big thunderstorm correlations.

        8. Good but don’t own any of the stuff.

        9. Haven’t heard too much, but good.

        10. Same as 9.

        1. Oh I also could list more. I had trouble keeping it at
          10 and not included REALLY old bands.

          How about those
          Rocking RamRods

          I’l be there is “perhaps” at MOST if that, one other
          person on this blog who ever even heard of that band.

    1. I think it is out in the CT River valley in that area out there devoid of clouds.
      😀 😀 😀

      PS
      I live and work in the CITY. I “think” I might know where the sea breeze is. 😀

      1. I was going to point out the CT River Valley. Downsloping wind from the mountains. Clears it right out.

        1. Awesome photo, btw. Yup, both areas stand out.
          Sea breeze and down slopping winds. Both convection killers, even when only fair weather cloudiness.

    1. How many do you think I could list? You’ve seen my nightly video posts on Facebook. Diverse doesn’t begin to describe my musical taste.

      1. You and I are in the same league when it comes to the number of bands we like. A couple genre don’t match up but the overall idea is the same!

    1. We took our students outside yesterday onto a baseball field. Played wiffle ball and anytime anyone ran on the infield dirt, it literally created a dust storm.

  30. I’m thinking about my top 10. 🙂

    Popped a few showers in NH late this afternoon, but with the dewpoint depressions, I’m thinking they may not be reaching the ground.

    2. They are most certainly hitting the ground. A little lightning with them too.

      As for my list – #1 is an easy choice, and it hasn’t changed since 1978. That’d be “The Hottest Band in the World”

    1. The stuff flaring up across NE/KS is impressive too. McCook, NE had a gust to 72 mph and over 2″ of rain. The temp also dropped from a high of 99 to 64 2 hours later while the storm was still going.

  32. Fly to Atlanta for a conference mid-afternoon Tuesday. Return Wednesday late afternoon, early evening. I guess it’ll be a bumpy ride on Tuesday? Used to fly all the time and didn’t have an issue, but I’ve become such a wimp flying. They may need to tranquilize me like Mr. T.

  33. My musical tastes also run the gamut and about the only thing I can’t listen to is Opera. Too many artists to list a Top 10…and they also shift back and forth with time. Several that are always in and out of the Top 10 list however are Mellencamp, The Alarm, Little Big Town, The Beatles, Laura Nyro, Sarah McLachlan, Goo Goo Dolls, BoDeans, The Byrds, The Sundays and of course Billy Joel.

  35. I’m surprised to see the lightning over northeast MA. Didn’t look that impressive on radar. The HRRR had that activity, but most runs overdid the coverage by quite a bit, as usual with sea breeze convection.

  38. Seriously ….this is painful. I just chopped over 90 groups/singers that I love. And I still have two to go

  40. Were we suppose to see thunderstorms tonight? I just had a nice storm with a good amount of cloud to ground lightning in Reading

  43. GFS has the front come through late afternoon Tuesday, with plenty of fuel ahead of it for strong to severe storms. Temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s, dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s, CAPE of 1000-2000J/kg, LI down to -6. Yeah, it’s got my attention.

    One tip for those of you, like me, that use Pivotal Weather. It won’t look as great due to the 6-hour time steps on the map. You need to look at 21z, which is the 93-hour forecast, because that’s when things are at their best in eastern New England. I recommend the College of DuPage (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/).

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