Monday Forecast

69 Comments

5:44PM

Apologies for the very late update, which was due to circumstances beyond my control. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)…
My original intent was to make this a longer post than it will turn out, but since it’s so late we’ll just jump to a quick summary and forecast update and reset for tomorrow’s update! With much of today done, you’ve seen that it has felt like summer as the final hours of spring go by. This is due to high pressure in control both surface and aloft. As expected, a low pressure system stayed far offshore and did not impact the region adversely, though had it brought beneficial rain that would have been a positive thing, as much of the region is now borderline or in moderate drought. One shot of rain on Tuesday will be minimized as the cold front is going to come through at the time when heating is near minimum and shower/thunderstorms development is much less likely. High pressure takes control again midweek though a trough in the upper levels and northwest flow at lower levels will make it slightly cooler. The next shot at rain comes Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves eastward, but it still has about a 50/50 shot at passing too far south to bring significant rain into all of the region. For now I’m going to lean toward the wet event but it being on the light side. By Friday, high pressure will be back with dry weather and another brief cooler shot of air.
THROUGH SUNSET: Sunshine and some high clouds. Temperatures 70s coast, 80s interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT after 2AM. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI through mid morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern areas. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the lower to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)…
The weekend of June 25-26 will turn warmer with dry weather. June 27 is likely to be fair, warm, and more humid. June 28-29 carries the chance of showers and thunderstorms with warm/humid conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)…
Brief isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur a couple times otherwise a pattern of mainly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures is expected.

69 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks!

    Was waiting for an update, have a graduation party on Sunday afternoon, was hoping for a good forecast, so far it looks dry! I definitely want to keep everyone in the yard, not in the house!

    Tom

  6. One of the perks of getting home from work at 3:30am – fantastic skywatching. Bright moonshine overhead in Brockton, lots of stars out, and I even saw a satellite pass nearly overhead. Meanwhile, my northwest horizon is being constantly illuminated by the nearly continuous lightning from strong to severe storms along the MA/NH border.

    1. Was driving 93 north to Reading and i see them as well, very nice lightning show. The storms around lowell seems to be intensifying more . I hope it develops little more to the south

  7. Have been hearing constant thunder for about 30 minutes. Seems more north of here. Just had a crack of thunder that shook house and was ear splitting.

    1. I see more to the west with warning boxes. Wonder if this line will zap their energy. Great light show.

        1. I think we were at southern edge also. I see it your way now on radar. Looks as if second line is losing intensity. I can see some lightening to southwest of here

              1. Sorry, North. I fell back asleep. Wish I’d seen it. The map has to have been lit up like a Christmas tree

  9. An hour ago distant rumbles and lightning, but just got light rain. West Newton / Waltham line just north of pike.

  10. Line came through here about 30-40 minutes. A couple of very bright flashes overhead and two cracks of thunder that shook the house. I’m a light sleeper and of course haven’t been able to get back to sleep since about 4:30. Needless to say I’m going to be tired and cranky all day. Ughh.

  11. Great storm here last night around 4:00, heavy rain and frequent lightning.

    The HRRR did a good job suggesting convection would hold together through the region. It was pretty much the only piece of guidance that did so, except maybe the hi-res NAM.

    1. I’d rely on HRRR more if it was actually consistent. You just never know when it will suck and when it won’t. 😛

  13. Awesome thunderstorm around 3:30am, lots of vivid lightnings and loud thunder. What was especially breathtaking about this storm was how the clouds were highlighted by the lightning and the full strawberry moon. I only wish I could have stayed awake to watch 🙁 maybe our next thunderstorm will be when I can sit in the window and appreciate it. I’ll put a request in to Mother Nature 😉

  14. I’m confused. WBZ said last night’s moon lived up to its name and was a bright strawberry color. I always thought the strawberry moon was so named because this is when the strawberries are ripe for picking. I also always thought the moon typically was a bit redish this time of year because it is closer to earth and the light travels through a thicker atmosphere.

    Help??

    3. The color of the moon is determined by the air molecules we are viewing it through at all times.

      The names are for other reasons. 🙂

  15. Good morning. I see all this talk of thunder and lightning.
    We got screwed. It did rain and there was a wee bit of thunder, but that was about it.
    WIMPORAMA in the City, but that always happens.

    Still looks like any severe weather will be confined to South Of us on Thursday.

    1. JPD, to make it worse on you, I got about 0.25″ of rain with those storms 😀 Veggie garden and lawn are happy 🙂

  17. ***
    One more late update today…about 3:15PM.
    Expect to be back to earlier updates tomorrow.
    ***

  19. Can anyone tell me if last night’s storms were issued watches or warnings by the NWS? Is there a way I can find out?

    1. I saw a bunch of warnings from Matt Noyes, so I believe they were NWS
      warnings.

      here is one

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2016/06/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-bristol-county-ma.html

      another

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2016/06/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-fairfield-county-ct.html

      another

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2016/06/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-bristol-county-ma-and-others.html

      another

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2016/06/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-hillsborough-county-nh-and-others.html

      and one more

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/alerts/2016/06/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-for-berkshire-county-ma.html

      1. Thanks JPD.

        For Massachusetts only…..I saw warning boxes west of here for the second line but they were removed as line moved east. I did not see any warnings for the line that went through here as it was over here. Looks as though it was warned moving east only in Bristol.

          1. There was only a brief time that particular storm was capable of being severe by definition which was why it was not warned before.

      2. Thank you, JPD! So there were no warnings/watches for Middlesex County… there was one (thanks to you) for Hillsborough County, NH, which included Nashua… That’s the storm that woke me.

  22. Last night’s rain, even in heavier spots, will do nothing for long term.

    Thursday’s rain will be under 0.50 for most if not all.

    1. Quick downpours rarely do anything but run off. We need a prolonged, moderate rainy day. Not seeing that in your forecasts – that’s for sure.

    2. That seems to follow the Euro. Do you think that the Euro has the best
      handle on the Thursday situation?

      The Nam has backed off some, so perhaps all models are trending
      to the Euro solution.

      Thoughts?

      thanks

  23. Active weather in The Baltimore, MD area
    Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    tornado debris sig just west of Baltimore

  25. This is just round one for the Mid Atlantic region in terms of severe weather. Another round for Thursday.

  26. New post!

    I’m going to be mobile from now through about 10PM but I’ll check in when I can.

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