Thursday Forecast

123 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)…
One interruption, otherwise a great extended Independence Day Weekend upcoming! The only bump in the road will be a disturbance coming along from the west and combining with a little moisture from the south, bringing some cloudiness and a risk of showers and thunderstorms late Friday to very early Saturday, otherwise high pressure will be in control with fair weather, generally warm conditions, but a lack of high humidity.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms by late in the day. Highs upper 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)…
Fair and warm July 5-6. Disturbance brings a shower/thunderstorm risk later July 7 and July 8. Fair weather returns July 9.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)…
Limited rain risk, dry weather dominates. Temperatures near to above normal.

123 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. Yesterday Eric showed a dew point chart that had do temps in the low 40s for the entire weekend. I’m can’t recall eps that low for the 4th except maybe…2009 perhaps? IIRC that 4th was very cool much like most of that summer.

  6. Thank you, TK. We all appreciate your incredible diligence, enthusiasm, and accuracy.

    I’m not a weather channel fan, but will occasionally view their forecasts. I noticed a change in their 3-month outlook (which I always regard with a healthy dose of salt). The upper mid-section of our country is supposed to be hot, and just west of NE it is supposed to be above average in terms of temperature but most of New England is now in the “average” territory (it had been in the above average territory in recent outlooks). Has there been a real change in thinking?

  7. Good morning and thank you TK. Great forecast.

    Regarding tomorrow night. I was looking at some charts earlier this morning,
    and I do not see much in the way of surface based instability for our area, however, I
    do see some elevated instability. Is it elevated instability that will cause the shower/T-storm threat?

    Many thanks

  9. Will see what the 12z runs say for tomorrow and SPC will update tomorrow’s outlook around 1:30pm this afternoon. This looks like another case like the other day where areas west of SNE have the biggest thunderstorm threat.

    1. Interesting from the SREF

      Significant tornado ingredients

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f042.gif

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f045.gif

      These values are low and nothing to be alarmed about, however, it does
      indicate that something could be going on. And we have seen a New England tornado with these values.

  12. When ever the SREF model highlights an area you do take notice. To me that short range model does a good job highlighting areas where storms COULD potentially rotate.
    Last summer it highlighted the Wrentham, MA area and sure enough that community did have an EF 0 tornado.

    1. Yup, I take notice as well. With numbers that low, generally speaking IF
      one were to develop, it would likely be an EF0 or EF1. Need high values
      for stronger tornadoes.

      Will watch the results of the 12Z runs and subsequent runs.

      BTW, I did not post it, but the 0Z euro had
      parts of coastal Maine in a HIGH RISK for tornadoes.

      Oh crap, I’ll post it. Here is the Euro Map:

      http://imgur.com/wUfd0i0

    1. I agree that generally it is conservative. I have even seen wording used
      by NWS to that effect. We shall see.

      IF the severe and the tornado stuff is still there with the 12Z run, I shall take notice.

      Additionally, want to see subsequent SREF runs. 😀

  15. The 12z runs and short range models particularly the SREF I will be interested in seeing and the updated outlook from the SPC around 1:30pm today for tomorrow. They have all of SNE in a general thunderstorm risk for tomorrow and a marginal risk west of SNE.

  16. If you notice the time 03z that is not during peak heating. This is around 11pm tomorrow night. If I am wrong with the time please anyone feel free to correct me.

  17. Dave I was just about to say looking at 12z NAM between 3z – 6z CAPE values still greater than 1,000 EHI Values in the 1 – 1.5 range for a good chunk of SNE. So plenty of instability despite the loss of the daytime heating for thunderstorm development.
    Now we wait and see if this an outlier of the 12z runs or other come on board to this solution.

    1. What worries me is that the Euro was calling for the possibility of severe, plus the SREF. So, I wouldn’t say the NAM was an outlier.

      The GFS is usually pretty conservative on severe parameters, so it will
      be interesting to see what it has to say very soon now.

  18. We don’t just have the cold front approaching and passing through, but we have a low
    traversing the Lakes and running down the St. Lawrence. Always spices up the situation.

  19. Tropical TidBits is a great site during the Winter, however, during the severe season, it is pretty much useless as it has no severe parameters whatsover.

  20. When a low goes west in the winter time we know were on the warm side and its the same situation during the summer time.

  23. The CMC is showing precipitation, but virtually no instability

    CMC-RDPS / North America (mesh: 10 km)

    precip:

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016063006/I_nw_EST_2016063006_045.png

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    So, we have some model Divergence. So, what else is new? 😀

    1. I suppose that is to be expected, but I like the models to agree a little
      better than this. Which one to believe?

      Personally, in this situation, I’d go with the combination of the NAM, EURO and SREF.

      Time will tell.

  24. 12z GFS shows nothing tomorrow
    On 7/9 shows a lot of instability to our west but weakens as it approaches SNE.

  25. If something comes to fruition tomorrow what’s the earliest it could arrive? We are scheduled on a mid afternoon ferry from MV back to Woods Hole then driving north home to Westford – wondering if I should move us to earlier ferry. Right now we are booked on the 2:30 pm… So ferry 2:30-3:15 then driving 4-6 pm roughly… Thanks as always for any advice!

  26. I would say your okay at the moment. Where I am in CT the thinking is the line of storms will come between 6pm -8pm. Hope this helps you out.
    Whatever happens tomorrow the rest of the holiday weekend looks great.

  27. Below, the forecast for Utrecht, the Netherlands (a place I lived for many years, as well as Amsterdam), tells you all you need to know about how fairly dismal and gray summers there can be. Believe me, one gets used to it. There’s invariably a chance of light rain at any moment, though you do see a spot of sun from time to time. The wind is predominantly a southwesterly (>90% of the time). There’s almost always a fairly stiff breeze. Finally, you don’t see much variation in temperature: upper 60s and possibly low 70s are the norm for highs, with lows generally in the 50s. These patterns have a way of not changing at all for months on end in Northwestern Europe.

    https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/NLXX0018:1:NL

      1. Has been measurable rain in Utrecht every day this month.

        During bad summers like this one, I recall when people used to say things like “oh, do you remember that nice day in May, was it the 7th, I think, when the sun was out all day and it stayed dry.”

        I think that once the Pilgrims got used to the relative weather extremes here, they loved it. Many Europeans who live here tell me they love the weather because of its distinctiveness (distinct seasons) and all the sun we get (we do get a lot of sun, believe it or not, compared to most northern places).

        1. Similar to a story a former boss of mine used to tell.
          He was Swedish and he told stories of the tough old Swedes when they would see a glimpse of the sun.

          Something to the effect, “I saw the Sun for a few moments this morning”

          Apparently, it is cloudy often there, much like what
          you have described.

    1. Yes, I saw that. Not surprised, however, SPC seems to be down playing this.

      Euro will be out soon. IF and I do say IF the Euro still shows impressive
      severe parameters for tomorrow night, then My concern will become ELEVATED. IF not, will just continue to monitor with interest.

  30. This morning there was no slight risk anywhere in northeast. It had marginal risk west of SNE. Part of the marginal area to the west of SNE was upgraded to slight risk and the marginal risk was extended not only into western parts of SNE but further south to include parts of the Mid Atlantic.

    1. That is what I thought, but when I went back to your link from this AM,
      I saw pretty much the same thing as now. I guess your old link NOW
      points to the NEW MAP. 😀 😀 😀

  31. 12Z Euro still packing impressive severe parameters for late tomorrow.
    Still waiting on a few more frames.
    At 0Z has MODERATE risk of tornadoes in Central, MA.

    1. DAMN, there is no 3Z frame. It jumps from 0Z to 6Z.
      In looking over the charts, it looks as if Boston would be smack dab in the middle
      of a severe risk at 3Z, including tornadoes. In fact it is still in a slight risk
      for tornadoes at 6Z.

      Here are a few charts:

      Risk of Severe at 0Z

      http://imgur.com/bMdP6P6

      Risk of Severe at 6Z

      http://imgur.com/wjsfry6

      Risk of Tornado 0Z

      http://imgur.com/0UO0rDS

      Risk of Tornado 6Z

      http://imgur.com/S6y9O2L

      Remember to click on each map to enlarge it.

  32. Dave when you get a chance please posts those links and when the new SREF comes out.
    As we said earlier today EURO tends to be conservative when it comes to instability.

  33. NWS wimped out with their 1:30 PM update. Basically regurgitated the earlier version WITHOUT adding a single thing. I HATE it when they do that. NOT a single word
    about the 12Z runs.

  34. Thanks for the links.
    So we have the NAM SREF and EURO saying something is up tomorrow night. GFS CMC say no.
    Now we wait for 15z SREF.

  35. I did here Matt Noyes, whom I respect, mention the potential for rotating storms tomorrow on air this morning. The model divergence makes it tough, but the event has my attention. Best conditions for severe may end up to our west though as shown by the SPC.

    1. We shall see. Euro concerns me, despite what the SPC has to say.
      Agree about model divergence, but what are we talking about?
      The CMC we can throw out, basically leaving the GFS, which is not all
      that good with Severe weather.

      We have some agreement with the Euro, NAM and SREF, which certainly has our attention.

      Wonder what the 0Z runs will show, even though I will be glued to the NAM 18Z. 😀

        1. What is that proprietary model? RPG? or something like that. Wish we could get our hands on that.

    2. Pretty frightening when an on air met mentions that. We know what it means and because a storm rotates, it does not mean there will be a tornado, just that
      there “could” be one. I wonder what the general population thinks when
      they hear something like that?

  36. This looks to be so far in the warm weather season one of the better set ups we have seen for thunderstorm development.

  37. The EURO has really been struggling in the day 6 to 10 range regarding potential heat in the northeast.

    2 days ago, the jet stream was north and the 850mb temps were very warm.

    Yesterday, it had a strong 500mb low over northern Maine driving the jet stream south of New England, with cooler drier air in the region.

    Today, as of hr 168, this 500mb feature is nowhere to be seen, the jet stream is further north again and it’s got 20C 850mb temps over southern New England. It also has a NW to SE jet right over New England and I’m guessing that particular projected scenario would offer thunderstorm chances.

        1. Thursday, 7/7 Euro shows Boston with 3,000 joules
          of Cape at 0Z! Not posting maps because it is too far out there. BUT, for the Euro, that is through the roof.

          1. Thanks JpDave. Something to watch for trends the next few days.

            By comparison, how many joules at its peak tomorrow ?

                1. And yet the SPC gives a higher threat, relatively speaking, much further north than the Delmarva, closer to the dynamics. It should be fun to see what transpires.

                2. The info above is perfect and greatly appreciated !!

                  I’m off to head back outside. 🙂 🙂

  38. I wonder, if with a S/SSE wind, the biggest opportunity for a damaging thunderstorm is with the warm front or ahead of the main line of storms associated with the cold front.

    Perhaps some individual cells develop ahead of the main line ??? But then again, the support is probably better lined up with the cold front.

    Anytime I see a projected surface wind of S or SE, I tend to think to focus more on the warm front.

    1. Funny you should say that.

      A couple of thoughts.

      1. The ocean is finally warming up some. (water temp 64 now and should be
      up a bit more by then and with SE wind and warm air mass, surface temp
      will be up some more even)
      2. The Revere tornado was that kind of situation, but with far less CAPE.
      3. Euro depicted shear, surface to 500 MB is OUTRAGEOUS!!!, evne surface
      to 925 is very large.

  39. 7/7 thunderstorm potential I believe a few days ago was the one TK was saying to keep an eye on.
    GFS has the feature two days later but comes through here no where near the instability to our west which is quite impressive.

  41. SREF highlighting CT, parts of NY NJ on that run. Not impressive values but still don’t want to ignore an area this model is highlighting.
    18z NAM should be up and running soon.

  43. Looking at the 18z NAM on instant site.
    18z shows instability with the exception of eastern areas.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016063018&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=024

    At 21z instability gets in the eastern areas but there is a whole without instability over CT then later looks like instability tries to fill in there.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016063018&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=027

  44. One thing is consistent with the 12z NAM the instability is supportive of thunderstorms between 03z to 06z.
    With that gap I am wondering first round is a warm front or pre frontal and the one that comes in between the time period 03z to 06z is the cold front.

  45. Will be radar watching tomorrow and see what happens as those storms push toward us. From reading the discussions from Upton and Albany if there were to be a weak tornado it looks to be west of SNE but tough to ignore the SREF when its highlights western MA and CT.

  48. It would be after I was knocking it last week with that system a week ago where we got no rain and the GFS was the only model bringing instability into SNE.

  49. The way I see this things shaking out with this upcoming system is something like this…

    * NOT a widespread thunderstorm outbreak.
    * Where there are storms, severe risk is notable, but coverage of storms will be small. Areas most likely to see isolated severe storms will be western CT, western MA, VT, and western NH.
    * Coverage of warm advection rain will be significant though much of it may not reach the ground, and the greatest window of time for this is 2PM-9PM Friday from west to east.
    * If eastern MA / RI get any t-storm action it will likely be confined to a couple hour’s window of time when those areas get briefly into a warm/humid wedge of air sometime at night.
    * Bonus t-storms may visit Nantucket and outer Cape Cod Saturday morning, so if you are there or heading there and see that, don’t panic. It won’t last.

    1. JR showed a model that has 1.1″ for Boston. However, he did note not to take any numbers as gospel.

    2. And there ya go. Frankly, that is kind of the GFS solution, of all things.
      Still will watch 0Z and tomorrow’s 12Z runs very carefully for changes. 😀

  50. Looking at world wide views of weather models just trying to learn more stuff and understand more,

    As I looked I did not see anything really out of the ordinary, then today, I saw a certain site, (wx) saying something is bogus, Listening to the video, they were talking about Jet streams merging from the northern hemisphere to the southern Hemisphere, what kind of effects could this have if it becomes a more consistent thing ( which i do not think will be the case but just wondering.

    I do know that, the global climate change would send the Jets further North, Not further south.

    I am wondering if this is due to the transition between a strong El-nino to a La-Nina

    1. There’s been a very misleading article circulating today about how the jet stream crossing the equator is a sign of some “climate emergency”. Nonsensical stuff. I hate to see it, because it undermines the credibility of the very real threat of climate change. Indeed, jet stream patterns and more are changing, but this is a normal transitional pattern. A good read on it here:

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/claim-that-jet-stream-crossing-equator-is-climate-emergency-is-utter-nonsense/

  51. I saw in the comments from earlier the 12z EURO is aggressive with instability on the 7th of July. 18z GFS is aggressive with the instability on the 10th.
    TK is the 7th – 10th still a time period to watch?

        1. The 9th may very well be skipped. 🙂

          Which it better as I may be in Hartford CT much of the day. 😛

  52. Absolutely spectacular sky tonight. I’m not sure I have ever seen such a vibrant red. If I have, it has been years. Sadly, I was driving and couldn’t get photos. Daughter may have.

    1. It was stunning from the water in Edgartown. We (my husband and I) were sitting on a dock looking across at Chappy – just beautiful. Out of the blue I thought of Vicki – and how proud Mac must have been to have such a caring, kind and thoughtful person as his wife. One of the best things about emerging on the blog at last is being able to post these thoughts of appreciation. I believe I owe TK about 2000 belated “Thanks TK!”s – but I’d bet Vicki never missed one!

      1. Darned but I have happy tears. TK has not only given us a weather blog, but he has given us a whole new family. I am so glad you are part of it. I am thankful for everyone here.

        Enjoy your last night there. Even just having “met” you, I know that you will cherish every second. And thank you…somehow you knew what I needed very much to hear.

        1. Maybe I did or – if you believe in such things (and I do) more likely perhaps it was Mac sending you a needed shout out by popping into my thoughts tonight out of the blue (which is why I hopped onto WHW tonight – to post to you). Either way I’m so glad to have made you glad. And yes – although with life a bit hectic right now and thankfully no snow storms in sight I haven’t been able to hop over here as much lately – but every time I can it is like going back to family! My family who always gets my “weather back”.

          1. Shotime is so right. What a beautiful thought and, yes, I fully believe in such things. And I can also fully understand why Mac would turn to you.

            Safe travels and a special holiday weekend. Thank you is not enough. 🙂

  54. Good morning. Now we have wording from the NWS:

    If any storms are able to become strong to
    severe, biggest threat will be for localized wind damage, but
    there is a secondary concern for hail given cooling aloft. Lastly,
    a low risk exists for an isolated tornado given SREF/NCAR ensembles
    showing pretty good probabilities for 0 to 1 km helicity of 150+
    and LCL/s below 800 meters.

  55. I would not be surprised if there is a tornado warning in the northeast today. I would favor west of SNE at the moment.

    1. CAPE in Boston area is approaching 2,000 from 3-6Z. It actually goes up
      over night. Can’t be ruled out anywhere.

  56. Will see what the SPC shows around 9am with the latest update on this.
    5% tornado chance west of CT and MA in the Hudson River Valley of NY.
    2% tornado chance tornado extends a little east of CT River Valley. It is a low risk here but a risk none the less.

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