Monday Forecast

161 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)…
This week will feature some changing weather, with a return to humidity and some heat today, along with a shower and thunderstorm risk, though this may be limited as much of the support for activity ends up tracking both north and south of southern New England. Either way, it’s close enough that we need to watch closely for a few strong storms that could get into the region especially late day and evening. High pressure builds in with drier air but the heat will still be around Tuesday. Fair weather continues at midweek as high pressure remains in control, though coastal sea breezes will keep beaches cooler than inland areas. By late Thursday, moisture may increase at least in the form of clouds, and by Friday, expect the risk of showers and thunderstorms to return, though at this point it doesn’t look like a widespread dumping of rain, so the drought conditions will likely worsen overall during the upcoming several days.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly afternoon and evening. Any storms could be locally strong. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-80 Nantucket, 80-87 coast, 88-95 interior. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early. Muggy evening. Lowering humidity overnight. Lows 65-73, warmest in urban locations. Wind light SW to W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-86 Cape Cod and Islands, 87-95 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-92 interior.
THURSDAY: Sunshine then clouds late. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-92 interior.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-91 interior.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)…
High pressure to the north will drift down and keep a low pressure area to the south away from the region during the weekend of July 30-31 with mainly dry weather, moderate humidity, and warmest temperatures over inland locations while it’s a bit cooler near the coast. High pressure builds over the region with increasing heat again August 1-3.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)…
Hot and humid early in the period, then warm and muggy with a few showers/thunderstorms mid to late period.

161 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Not TK, but that would be My Guess for today anyway. Not sure about
      the rest of the week.

  5. Thanks TK.
    Sun is out and heating up where I am. The concern was the cloud cover last night by some of our meteorologists and may prevent our high temps from reaching heat advisory criteria and we would not fully destabilize. If this sun stays out for a long time will destabilize with no problem.

    1. Interesting.

      I concur JJ. I don’t see ANY debris clouds. Pretty damn sunny here and it
      has been all morning and I have been up since 6:30.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    TK, I am going to hold you to those “Cooler” temperatures along the coast.
    I will echo another posters comments about that along the coast being immediate
    coast or will that sea breeze penetrate inland a bit?

    I am only 5-6 miles from Logan and Saturday is was like 95 at my house and 82 at Logan, so that sea breeze was useless at my house. I fear the same all week.

    Thoughts? Thanks

  8. at 8:54 AM, Logan was 75 with SE wind already. DP 62

    by contrast, Hartford is 82, SW wind and dp 70

  9. AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. How many cloud-to-ground lightning bolts occur in the United States each year?

    A. 1 million
    B. 25 million
    C. 50 million
    D. 75 million

    2. Under ideal conditions, you can see lightning up to …
    A. 10 miles
    B. 25 miles
    C.50 miles
    D. 100 miles

    3. Over the last century, the lightning death rate in the U.S. has been …
    A. falling
    B. steady
    C. rising
    D. rising sharply

    Answers later today.

    2. Well some of this my granddaughter and I looked up last week. Some I have no idea. I won’t say which since that isn’t fair.

      1 – C; 2 – D; 3 – A

      We did find if you hear thunder you are within 10 miles of the storm and can be struck by lightning. Not related to questions, but I thought interesting.

      As always, thank you, Longshot.

      1. I learned that a few years ago when the house across the street was struck by lightning from a storm that had been severe, but had also moved past us, so it seemed!

  10. One of the concerns with the SPC was the cloud debris which is why they went with a marginal risk for areas in western CT and put the slight risk down in parts of Mid Atlantic. Already a nasty line of storms forming in western NY State at its 9am in the morning and there are even some severe thunderstorm warnings.

  12. Why do the RAP and HRRR models show hardly any CAPE all over NE for the
    entire day today, while the NAM shows large CAPE values?

    What’s up with that?

  13. Dave first time this year the SPC has placed any part of SNE in the 70% chance for thunderstorms. That 70% covers a good chunk of SNE in the 20z to 0z time frame. (4pm -8pm) Even at 0z to 4z (8pm to midnight) still a 40% chance for thunderstorms with 10% of southeastern MA.

  14. Special Weather Statement issued just over half hour ago.
    …SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING…

    THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF
    THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
    THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
    PROGRESSES EASTWARD IT SHOULD EXIT THE COAST AROUND 9 PM THIS
    EVENING.

    THE GREATEST RISK FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
    60 MPH OR GREATER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
    LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT

    1. Yeah, sure and I’m Santa Claus, remember. We shall see.

      I just want RAIN. I am SICK of watering the Lawn. It’s a new lawn out down in Early June. I am struggling to keep it green.

      1. Good Luck, Dave!
        I gave up on my lawn a few weeks ago, so I’ll probably be replacing mine, too. I’ll give it a good thatching and throw some seed down in the fall with hope something grows next spring.

        1. We spent a lot of money on that lawn. We had the landscaper dig up all of the old sod (what was remaining of it) and lay down a whole load of loam and then seed
          the whole thing. If I don’t water it for a day or 2, it shows visible signs of stress and areas of yellow.

          If I water every day, it maintains itself, but then I start
          sprouting mushrooms. Can’t win.

          Also, the landscaper mess it up by laying down 2 type of seed. One type is doing well and seems to hold up to
          the every other or every 3 day watering, while the other
          is not growing nearly as fast and yellows very quickly when not getting a daily dousing of water.

          Again, can’t win.

          But thank you.

    1. Btw, that convection in NY state “appears” to be moving almost Due East. If one extrapolates with the current movement it would just about clip the Boston
      area with the Southern extent of it. Not sure this is what we will be dealing with
      later OR there will be new convection firing alter. We shall watch and see.

  17. I was surprised to see the sun out this morning. The thinking on our weather casts here in CT last night was the clouds would hold tough and there would be limited sunshine. Clearly looking out the window this is no limited sunshine and this is self destructing sunshine as the atmosphere is destabilizing and you have a front coming through there is potential for strong to severe storms in places.

  21. JP Dave, I’m with you on the wanting rain bit. Vegetation looks sickly in town; from grass to trees and everything in between. Algae growth on the waters of the Esplanade lagoon is rampant, which kills fish. And the smell. My nose is sensitive, but I’m sure others smell it, too. The garbage smells, The alleyways smell. People smell, myself included.

    2. I guess I am lucky I don’t live in the inner city.
      My neighborhood does not smell.

      However, the laws, trees and bushes are STRESSED. It is visibly noticeable.

  22. That 12z NAM focusing the best instability in CT Hudson River Valley of NY and NYC Long Island.

  23. The only limiting factor was maybe cloud cover, but since we don’t have that, why has the threat diminished in eastern areas?

      1. BUT WHY? Plenty of sunshine. What is robbing us of the CAPE?
        Seriously, there has to be a reason and I have no clue. I want to understand this and it is baffling to me. Previous model runs had plenty of CAPE. What happened?

        Is it the generally SOUTHERLY marine flow doing us in yet again? What is it?

        We need a fine tailor to rustle us some CAPE.
        Or perhaps the CAPE CRUSADER can assist us?

  25. TK do you agree with SPC putting back the slight risk back in western CT and do you think there is support here or just like up there were going to be sandwiched in between.

  26. Tweet from NWS Taunton Skywarn
    SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM for severe weather potential. Timing is earlier…

  30. Boston remains at 79 with now an East wind, dp 64

    Taunton and Providence at 88, while Hartford is at 90 with dp 68.

  32. From Taunton NWS a bit ago:

    Regarding severe potential, all models show a coherent area of
    38-40 K Index readings moving from the Berkshires at 1 PM to
    Worcester County by 4 PM and at the coast around 7-8 PM. Am
    expecting the line of thunderstorms in New York to progress across
    southern New England at the time of maximum heating. With dry air
    aloft once again, we could see downburst potential in the stronger
    thunderstorms. We have put enhanced wording…possibly
    severe…into the forecast for areas with the highest CAPE values.
    SPC mesoanalysis shows a RAP forecast of an axis of higher
    Downdraft CAPEs in eastern CT and RI this afternoon, which could
    be where the strongest storms evolve.

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

    Our friends at Taunton appear to be a bit Bullish on events for today.

    We shall see.

  34. Looking at the radar got one area of showers and storms in central NY then another line trying to form western NY.

  37. 12Z GFS shows virtually NO CAPE for ALL of Eastern SNE ALL day long.
    It shows some Elevated instability, but not a ton.

    IF one went soley on the GFS, there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO THREAT of SEVERE
    WEATHER.

    IMHO, the models are NOT, NOT, NOT handling today’s situations particularly well.

  38. Not to speak for SAK but I’m betting he’d agree…
    SPC and NWS have not proven to me any notable accuracy on severe weather forecasting. I’d be cautious if considering taking their word alone. Today is no exception.

    1. Agree 100%.

      I don’t see any SB Cape, only some elevated, which generally doesn’t lend
      itself to severe, only general thunderstorm? is that correct?
      Even if it could lead to severe, there isn’t enough of that even.

    2. They seem to think that forecast severe weather in New England is the same as forecasting severe weather in Oklahoma.

      This is similar to how some of the people at TK and I’s former employer that forecasting snow in New England was the same as Minnesota. I seriously had an argument with some of the people in our Minnesota office (shortly before they closed down our Woburn office), because they couldn’t understand why an east wind made a difference in Boston in early December. After all, it didn’t make a difference in Minneapolis. These are the same people that thought Bedford and New Bedford were right next to each other. (Oh, and they still provide forecasts for the Red Sox – next time there’s a rain delay and no rain, you know why).

      1. Just out of curiosity, why is it more difficult to forcast severe weather in our region? I understand that forcasting snow here is complicated due to us being next to the ocean and having influence from it, etc. But i wonder what are thr complications for severr weather?

        1. It’s not that it’s more difficult, it’s that the methods vary from place to place because different locations offer .. well .. different things to consider…

  39. Heat advisory expanded to include more of MA.
    Impressive line forming moving into the Catskills look to ahead in southeast direction. Will be watching to see if I get clipped by this.

  41. 12 15 update from NWS
    Convective update… Line of thunderstorms approaching the Hudson
    Valley in eastern NY has not weakened. It will be approaching
    surface based CAPE values of 1000-1500 and is not expected to
    weaken as it approaches western MA. These could become severe. The
    RAP and HRRR are not capturing this convection. Behind this line,
    abundant sunshine in southern NY may help a second, potentially
    more potent area form and move into our region late this
    afternoon.
    I see they still think we have a decent amount of CAPE, goes against what tk says and what jpd dave was showing in the models
    Both line will weaken as they approach us in my opinion. At least eastern mass

      1. Yes, but you will also notice a low risk of 65+ wind, which
        means the severe wind is 58-64 mph. They typically say
        winds to 60 mph and I “think” that is what they mean by high
        risk of severe wind.

    1. Btw, that first batch of convection is WEAKENING RAPIDLY contrary
      to what the NWS indicated. Hmmm running into reduced or no Cape?
      I wonder?

    1. I thought that it might. 😀

      Btw, just an observation. Crap loads of Cumulus out there with a fair
      amount of vertical growth. Something is happening up there.

      It was 90 at my house at 1PM while it was 79 at the airport. 81 there now.
      DP at Logan has crept up to 70. That should mean something. Dew points 70+ across most of the area.

  46. Hopefully we see something in North Reading…one downpour in the last 5-6 weeks. That is it.

  47. They line out by Albany, previously weakening, had suddenly intensified again.
    Not sure if it means anything or is just temporary. Will continue to watch.

  48. Special Weather Statements with that first batch of showers storms in Hudson River Valley. Noticing a second batch forming further west. I wonder if that atmosphere will have time to recover for areas that get the first batch of showers and storms.

  49. Huge cumulinbous cloud (i know i spelled that wrong) buildings but nothing on radar. I am sure something will pop soon

  50. There’s a very noticeable lack of instability north of the MA border. There also seems to be a cap in place over Vermont. Explains why that part of the line is very weak.

  52. Shower just popped along the sea breeze front near Burlington! Another around Melrose/Stoneham. Moving NE.

  54. Good call KANE. 4 distinct cells out there, all in the past 15 minutes or so.
    That is the CAPE and lift associated with the sea breeze front. Pretty cool.
    Doesn’t happen all that often around here. 😀

  58. Western Massachusetts has received quite a bit of beneficial rainfall in the past week or so. That theme continues. Yet, the storms that drop good amounts of rain west of us tend to vanish on their eastward march. This said, there appear to be a few local, coastal storms that have popped up on radar. Gives us Bostonians hope that we’ll see a few raindrops. Maybe.

    Of course, we do take for granted how lucky we are in SNE with abundant sunshine in summer, fall, and winter (and even spring, sometimes). Also, in spite of variability, there’s quite a bit of certainty in our part of the world. That is, we have distinct summers, distinct falls, distinct winters, and even distinct springs (sometimes). The same cannot be said in many parts of the world.

    So, for example, the British Isles – Didn’t take long for the Atlantic lows to revert to their normal pummeling of the British Isles. UK `summer’ was short-lived, indeed, as it usually is:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/uk-weather-is-summer-over-after-heatwave-rain-spreads-across-bri/

  61. So here’s the synopsis. As expected, it’s too warm aloft, so the CAPE is low. Better support is way west, east of Buffalo, and heading this way, but will arrive after sunset, probably too late. Overall thinking unchanged.

    1. This warning is based on radar and not any funnel or tornado sighting at this point.

      1. To be sure that was the case. Rotation was every bit as tight
        as I saw on the Revere tornado. I am guessing there was
        actually a tornado on the ground for a little while anyway.
        We shall see.

    1. Funny saying that when it’s in the 90s North of the front. 😀 😀 😀

  67. My house is reading 93, but BFD – Engine 51 a 1/2 mile away is coming in at 96 with feels like 99!

    1. Spoke to my wife a while ago. She is dying. The cold from the AC makes her sore and achy all over and the other parts of the house are so hot and humid it makes her deathly sick. She said it was 92 at home. Brutally humid.

  68. Glad I am just getting some thunder and some rainfall as the northern part of the line was weakened. Southern part according a tweet I am reading from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan there was a strong damaging wind signature with 60mph plus gusts.

  70. NWS doesn’t want to give it up.

    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/…
    Tonight…
    With increasing mid lvl lapse as the core of the upper shortwave
    moves across the region, it may lead to lingering convection into
    the earlier overnight hours. This correlates to ML CAPEs near
    1000j/kg lingering along with an increase in shear, closer to 35
    kt. Timing of shortwave will be key, but eastern areas could see
    the remnant of this convection linger through 02-04Z (10-midnight
    local).

  73. Temp down from 94 to 89 and DP up from 68 to 72 in about an hour. Completely overcast here.

  75. Logan now up to 86 with East wind and dp 70.

    If Logan goes to a W or SW wind anytime soon, they will make 90 for
    the 5th day in a row. So far: Thu, Fri, Sat and Sun.

  79. Just noticed that. Hopefully that activity misses SNE as there are multiple severe thunderstorm warnings near that tornado warned storm

  80. Daily record high set at Blue Hill today, 96F, beating the old record of 94F. Hot one out there for sure, although a few days ago I would’ve predicted more areas challenging 100F. Looks like we’ll stay mainly dry while the NYC area gets pummeled.

    1. Too hot. This weather sucks. I know that people do like it. Don’t know how?, but
      whatever floats one’s boat. 😀

  82. Sun out where I am now after some showers and rumble thunder went through. Will it destabilize before the next round comes through?

    1. Some as it is getting late in the day, however, there will probably be instability around later into the evening and even at night.

  83. Logan reached 90 at 4:40 PM when the wind came around to the South. Dp actually
    dropped to 68, like that helps. 😀

    5 DAY HEAT WAVE and counting.

    2. 9 is the record. Don’t think we make it…but pretty cool it made it today after being much lower most of the day,

      1. They’ll reach 6 Tuesday. Wednesday is a toss-up but I think they may miss it by a slight bit. Depends on sea breeze.

  84. A few storms popped up in South/Central NH near an area of higher CAPE values. Unless something changes, it looks like there isn’t enough instability to bring any significant storms east of the CT River Valley.

    1. Think it was the sea breeze front that drove what little instability we had away. At one point we had 1500 joules of SBCAPE a bit further inland, but since the showers earlier it’s gone down to well under 1000.

  85. Not a good evening to be traveling in the NYC area. All sorts of hazards down there, including waterspouts observed offshore. Many flights diverting to Boston.

  86. Ya know, TK, I have some gentle criticism. Your being right all the time about where storms will be takes a touch of the fun out of anticipating. May I ask that when you say storms will be in northern New England and NYC would you mind adding and maybe in Vicki’s area 😉

    That said….kudos. 🙂

    1. “And maybe in Vicki’s area….if she takes a trip to northern New England or NYC.”

      Sorry best I can do today. 😉

  87. Thursday is looking like another day with temps above what guidance is showing right now. Oh, and I wouldn’t expect widespread convection either, at least during the afternoon.

  88. A new post awaits you when you wake up, or awaits you now if you are still awake! 😉

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