Wednesday Forecast

108 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)…
No significant changes from yesterday’s thinking. Does Boston reach 90 to extend their heatwave today? We should know by about noon. Otherwise another bright, hot, but dry day today. A little less hot, a little more humid, and a slight risk of a few showers and storms by later Thursday. Still looks like Friday is our best shot at rain, but that said, it doesn’t look like much in most locations, with steadiest rain from passing low pressure to the south likely to occur along the South Coast. High pressure is expected to keep the weekend dry, moderately humid, but not too hot.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 82-88 other coastal areas, 88-95 interior areas. Wind light W except coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Wind light variable becoming light S.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Increasing humidity. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-86 other coastal areas, 86-92 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Isolated afternoon showers interior areas. Lows 63-70. Highs 75-83, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-68. Highs 76-85, coolest Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 62-68. Highs 76-85, coolest Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)…
Gradual building of heat and humidity during the first several days of August. Mainly dry weather overall, but a risk of pop up showers and thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Hot and humid start to the period then less heat with a slightly better risk of a few showers and thunderstorms at times. Still not seeing any widespread beneficial rainfall very likely in this pattern.

108 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK! The ECMWF is very insistent on heavy rain Friday, the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. Problem is, it’s pretty much out on its own…

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Forgot my glasses today. I’m having trouble seeing to post. 😀

      1. Accurately describes my current state of affairs.

        Funny thing, at a distance, my vision is still 20-20 or better, but at reading or screen distance, it’s a blur to me.

  6. Logan is 81 with a light North wind at 6 mph.
    Unless that picks up, likely sea breeze and likely sooner than later. 😀
    That would likely preclude Boston reaching 9 for a 7th day in a row.

    FWIW, Eric predicted 92 for Boston, then proceeded to say highs would be
    85-90 along the coast?????? Go Figure.

    1. 86-88 at Logan before seabreeze. But then they have a shot at 90 around 6PM if it quits early. Weak gradient though so only a slight chance of a late-delivery. 😉

  7. Thanks TK
    Very little instability for the storms tomorrow on 6z GFS. 6z NAM has a strip of instability greater than 1,000 for CT RI South Shore Cape and Islands.
    SPC has all of SNE in general thunderstorm risk.

  8. As of 8:54 Logan’s Wind went into the East.
    9AM Wind SSE, temp down to 79.

    Unless Logan’s wind shifts to a land breeze later on, the string of 90
    degree days has been broken.

  9. Seeking suggestions. Looking for a reasonably priced weather station that
    can be monitored from anywhere via a smart phone. Don’t want to spend more
    than $200. Do such things exist? Do not need wind equipment as I simply have
    too many trees around my house and cannot ever get even close to an accurate
    reading of wind direction and/or wind speed.

    Just need temperature, Pressure, rain guage and preferrably Dew point, but they seem to be hard to find at low cost. Would settle for humidity and then I can calculate dew point or an approximation.

    Many thanks all.

      1. Thank you Sue. That one did catch my attention last evening.
        The only problem with it is that it has the wind sensors and displays. I’d rather not pay for those, but it looks like I might have to just to get the other stuff I want.

        Thanks again.

        1. Dave, I have an Accurite I stopped using. It doubled precipitation all the time. I use a Lacrosse rain gauge that is wireless and it is almost always accurate. I know you are looking for the whole package together though,

          1. North, thanks for the info.

            LaCrosse does offer a complete weather station. But, I do not think they offer the internet interface
            such that it can be accessed via a smart phone.
            That feature is a must for me. I always want to know what the conditions are at Home.

  10. In the last 20 minutes, Logan’s wind has been N to ENE to SSE to S.

    BTW, at Boston Buoy

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (8:50 am EDT)
    1250 GMT on 07/27/2016:

    Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 71.8 °F

    This is before a seabreeze kicks in.

    We finally got there!

  12. Hey JPDave,

    I have the same one Sue posted a link to. Works really well and I’ve been happy with it so far. The internet bridge plugs into your router so its fairly easy to hook up. The bridge just cant be down in a basement. It needs to be where the antenna can get a connection with the outdoor unit.

    1. Thanks Blackstone.

      Our Router is in the living room inside a special TV cabinet. Hopefully, that would do the trick, depending upon where I locate the sensors.

      Still researching, but I have save a link to this one.

      Many thanks again.

    2. Hi Blackstone…nice to hear from you.

      Does the anemometer have to be placed on the roof? I know there is no way I can convince anyone to get on this roof.

      I’m assuming my router would handle two bridges. I currently have a bridge for my music system.

      1. As long as you have an open port on the router, its fine.
        My anemometer isn’t as accurate as it should be. Im like Dave, I have too many trees. I have it mounted at the correct height for temp and dew point, but there’s no way I can get up high enough for accurate wind speed. The wind direction works fine, just reads too low for speed.

        1. Thank you. Just confirms my feeling that I won’t spend the money for an anemometer.

          I did get a system in May but am thinking of giving it to my granddaughter and getting one that has DP for me. I work from home so don’t need the remote capability. Do you have suggestions? I’m looking for basic rain, temp, dp and an easier high and low and history than the one I currently have gives me.

          Thank you.

  15. “When in drought, leave it out”. Wise words someone once said to me. And it almost always works. as I pointed out yesterday, droughts like this in the summer usually require a tropical system or the remnants of one to break the cycle. How many times i n the last 2 months have the models indicated that we finally are getting that widespread heavy rain that we so desperately need? How many times have they been right? (The 2nd question is a lot easier to answer than the 1st). Until it actually happens once, I refuse to forecast widespread significant rainfall around here, no matter what the models say.

    1. I completely agree. What we get is a quick, heavy downpour at best which does absolutely nothing to help the deficit.

    2. Same method I use. I’d need overwhelming evidence and it will be a relatively short lead time forecast…

      1. Silly you…where did you think I learned the method 😉 It’s been yours for as long as I can remember.

  19. I like the 12z NAM for Friday. I’ll print it and put it on my bulletin board and do a rain dance … Yeah, little good that will do to actually bring rain to these parts. As TK says, “don’t pay much attention to 12z NAM beyond 30 hours.”

    1. There have been several waves but they encounter unfavorable conditions which is no great surprise right now. 🙂

  23. It’s been rather cloudy here in Sudbury for awhile. Many people saying we are getting a reprieve (hope that’s spelled right) w/the 90’s after tomorrow – but I’m sure there are more on the way. I don’t know if Logan will reach 90 today – but it would be nice if it breaks a record. Oh, okay. Sun just came out. Can already feel the heat! 🙂

    1. That smiley face should be 🙁

      Also noticed when out today like many of you how bad the lawns are doing. We don’t have much grass at our home as we have many trees around and practically live in the woods.

      1. I thought of you this morning, rainshine. I am so tired of not having fresh air that I opened the windows wide. It felt wonderful.

  25. When I was at Kure Beach south of Wilmington, NC last week, the water temp in the intercoastal waterway was 86. Two miles out, it was 83.

    1. Was always warm enough to swim in the ocean off of Isle of Palms, SC, in April when we visited. Of course the residents thought we were nuts 🙂

  27. I guess they said it’s been cold. My wife has been coming up here for 37 yrs with the same family , now multiple families . We rent the same houses every year and always the same week, nice tradition .

  28. Logan was previously up to 88. It almost got there.
    Wind has shifted to the East and temp now down to 81 with dp 63.

  29. 12z model recap for Fri/Sat

    NAM – heavy rain
    ECMWF – heavy rain
    GEM – heavy rain
    NAVGEM – heavy rain
    SREF (9z)- heavy rain
    UKMET – light rain
    GFS – very little rain

    Yup, I’m sticking with the GFS.

    1. No disrespect intended, but I hope you are incorrect.

      That post shows a nice sense of humor. 😀

    2. FIM also says light rain. How do you feel about the FIM?
      At times it can be pretty good and at other times???

      1. Since I have outdoor plans for Fri/Sat my money is on SAK/GFS. Maybe some other time, JPD! 😀

  30. That sea breeze at Logan is RIP ROARING. Has been fluctuating from DUE EAST
    from 16-20 mph. That is one hell of a sea breeze!

  31. Any rain will be welcome Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning. The heavier the better, but I’ll be okay with some moderate rain just to clean the air a bit.

    Was at lovely Fenway last night. Never ceases to amaze me how beautiful that park is – and I’ve been to several of the new stadiums as well as the older ones. The air felt tropical. Conducive to some homeruns. But, the team is reeling a bit. Actually, they’re in a boat load of trouble. Absolutely no pitching. To count on Wright in the second half is foolish. Who else do we have that’s good? Porcello, I guess. But, that’s not the making of a championship team. I do love their offense and the core group of players up and down the lineup. Don’t tinker with that. Get rid of Farrell (he may not survive the upcoming 11 game road trip – his in-game management skills are nonexistent). Hope that Price reverts to form next year. Get a group (3) decent starters during the off-season.

    1. Joshua, I am amazed that there is someone out there who agrees with me.
      Refreshing. I agree 100% on your Farrell assessment. He is useless. And I mean USELESS!!!

      I wanted him gone before the season and I actually think he would have been if it were not for the cancer. He is well now and it HAS been long enough.
      Get RID of him, the sooner the better.

      I never expected Wright to keep pitching the way he was, however, I honestly thought that his era would settle into the low 3s somewhere and not the mid
      2s. AND, I’ll take that! IF we can get that. He is entitled to a bad night now and then. Let’s see what his next outing is like. Don’t give up on him just yet.

      What I am tremendously disappointed in is David Price! What a freakin JOKE!!! and total and complete WASTE OF MONEY!@&&#&!^#&^

      I could pitch better than he can and I’m an old man!!!!!

      1. Sox just tied up the game in the bottom of the 8th of a Betts triple. They do have potent offense. Tigers will be kicking themselves. They have left 17 men on base. Had many chances to blow this thing wide open, but failed to cash in.

        Yes, Wright is entitled to a bad game. I don’t think he’s the problem. He’s not going to be as good in the second half, but that doesn’t disqualify him as a legitimate starter. Their problems start with Price, Buchholz, Kelly, Rodriguez to a degree, and almost the entire bullpen. You can only come back in games so many times.

    2. It truly is a beautiful park. We have never had anyone visit from without or without this country who has not wanted to see Fenway.

      1. Which is pretty typical, as are the temps now. 🙂

        There is a range of normal they fall under and they have never really been much outside that in 2016. 🙂

  33. Miguel Cabrera just homered. He is an awesome hitter. Not having a great year, but in my opinion the best and most dangerous right-handed hitter in the game since Manny. Uses all fields. Clutch. Trout is great, too, but his pedigree isn’t nearly as long. I fear for what Cabrera will do with the bat more than any other hitter. He’s been that good.

    1. And why would it be otherwise?

      18Z NAM is in with a SOAKER.

      CAVEAT. It has a pretty sharp precipitation cutoff South to North, which tells me only the slightest shift to the South means NOTHING COOKING here.

      And, I presume that is what you are thinking.

      Again, I hope you are wrong.

      1. I think the NAM, ECMWF, etc, are modeling the system incorrectly. The explanation is technical, but it has to do with shearing of energy, mainly.

        1. You mean too much of a zonal flow, cutting it off this
          far North? Those models have the upper winds
          turning ever so slightly to bring it up here. If flow
          remains zonal, it doesn’t get up here.

          Is that layman’s terms for what you mean or am I out
          to lunch?

            1. Close enough. Thank you.

              Reminiscent of the Winter when
              the Northern Stream shunts the Southern moisture OTS. 😀

        2. If my memory serves me correctly, the GFS has done well on systems like this before. It’s tough to ignore the other guidance but my gut still says you, SAK, and the GFS are correct.

  35. The 6 day rain totals on the Euro are crazy… It has even more rain after Friday. Here’s to hoping!

        1. Just saw that.
          I suppose that is the kiss of death.

          We can still hope anyway.

          If this stays South, we have further confirmation about
          how good these 2 mets are here. AND How lucky we are
          to be part of this blog.

        2. I was about to bring that up. Even though the 4km NAM is generally not great outside 36 hours or so, it looks like a better run than its 12km cousin this time because it’s not making what I believe to be the error of the other resolutions.

  36. Well I think TK and perhaps SAK have had a chat with Taunton NWS.
    Have a look. They explain what TK was discussing, I think.

    But challenges remain: Are there complications of and between n-
    stream and s-stream systems? The depth, timing and orientation of
    the H5 trough axis? Where and when will the forecast heavy rain axis
    setup? Will it impact S New England? Will thunderstorms be an issue?
    Over how long will this event take place, if it does impact S New
    England? And the biggest question, are there any flood threats?

    Evaluating ensemble probabilistics, CIPS analogs, and SREF guidance,
    a considerable spread of outcomes lending to low confidence. Notable
    differences in the 27.09z SREF run with ARW core solutions wetter
    than NMB, while exhibiting a considerable spread per plumes in both
    camps. But when looking looking at the past 4 SREF solutions, S of
    the Mass-Pike has trended with a considerably wetter forecast, while
    there are indications of a N-S gradient of rainfall. GEFS plumes too
    has a considerably large spread with the operational GFS run towards
    the bottom (driest) of solutions for S New England.

    Collaborating with WPC, they`re going with a GFS/UKMET blend holding
    with a quicker solution with the attributing vortex energy becoming
    sheared within the overall flow, that all other solutions which are
    slower subsequent of the deeper developing surface low are outliers.
    But they too have low confidence. While the 27.12z EC has trended S
    from its prior run, it still has significant outcomes for S New
    England. Will go ahead with a 50/50 blend of the two camps. Upon
    doing so, likely PoPs prevail for all of the region. Will keep with
    chance thunderstorms. Conservative with precipitation amounts. An
    overall low confidence forecast.

    1. Thanks. Had not read their write-up yet. I don’t check them as often as I used to. I guess the idea is, still pretty low-confidence forecast at this point. I’d say moderate confidence on my end, but I realize that it can go majorly wrong here.

    1. With their magic bunnies.

      TK, your forecasting skills astound me. Truly. It’s a marvel to observe. I’ve mentioned this to many people with whom I talk about this blog.

      1. Thanks….. 🙂
        However, it’s entirely possible I’m about to swing and miss… 😉

    2. I’m surprised that both Harvey and Eric took the bait hook line and sinker.

      We shall see. From what I have observed here, you are MORE in tune to what
      is really going on than they are. Let’s see how it shakes out.

      1. I’m confused. I went to the three web sites. Just BZ had downpours. Wcvb and whdh Friday said chance of pm showers and storms

  41. Although it’s late so likely limited viewing of this post I must chime in and protest TK’s comment of a possible swing and miss. Because like always TK you explained both the fact that you’re far from confident yet and you explained what seems to be a pretty unique and complex weather system (with some help from JPDave) well enough that even with me – a person who still has to google z conversion to understand time stamps – gets the gist. Even if it POURS Friday that would not be a swing and a miss – at worst it’s a sac fly.

    1. You’re very kind. 🙂

      Mother Nature has the final say, and despite the new GFS being wetter, I’m still feeling the same way about the outcome at this point…

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